X Leaves the Spot for San Diego: 11 years, $280M

DavidTai

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I mean, hiring Boras as an agent tells you the man wants to get paid. He was -always- going to opt out.

Without knowing how many years the Sox offered for 'less than 200', I can only guess at AAV, but I'm not even sure the Sox contract offer plus whatever offer he would have gotten after that would have come close to 11 years 280 million.
 

StuckOnYouk

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wow, all these supposed insiders saying momentum was headed toward a deal only to find out the Sox and Padres offers were worlds apart.

So were the Sox on the verge of signing him and then San Diego came in with their 11-year deal? Did Boras leak to everyone they were moving toward a deal in hopes of luring in an outsider to give a massive offer?
 

SemperFidelisSox

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The Padres don’t seem to have any plan except throw crazy contracts into the water and see who bites, so I wouldn’t be shocked if they were bidding against themselves.
 

ehaz

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Why are you so sure about that? He’s a Boras client, and in retrospect that would have been a terrible decision for X to make.
Semien was coming off an 8 WAR season, the Sox were coming off a year where they were a few plays away from a pennant, X reportedly wanted to be a Sox for life, and Boras had just watched his biggest FA strike out and have to settle for what was effectively a 1-year deal with player options.
 

TapeAndPosts

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Thanks for everything Xander. This contact was way beyond any of our max offers in the Best Offer thread, and also way beyond anything the pundits predicted (which were generally higher than our max offers).

Sad to see him go but I kind of prefer losing him to crazy stupid money that I do not think on any account we should have matched. I liked the contract he opted out of. Even a 7-year deal was going to make me nervous, but I was prepared to learn to like it. This is just cosmically out there.
 

EpsteinsGorillaSuit

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Why aren't they going to play 11 years? When has a player ever retired leaving that much money on the table?
The players aren't retiring and will collect every dollar. But the clubs know that $280/8 years = $35M AAV. Better to make it 11 years at $25.5M AAV for the luxury tax, knowing that there is a good chance that the players will be cooked for the last couple years and could be released if need be.
 

OurF'ingCity

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Bogey at 11 years is pretty insane. But I'd hate to see how Correa holds up physically, especially as a guy who has back issues, right? Or a history of back ailments?

I'd look at Swanson (within reason), but I think that, again, the front office did things in reverse order. You sign guys when you have the ability to sign them sure, but the bullpen pieces, especially Jansen look a little strange now that your all-star shortstop is gone, and a placeholder is possibly going to fill the void.
Are you suggesting that the Sox should not attempt to be contenders now that Bogaerts left? He was and is a great player but that seems a little extreme.
 

Marciano490

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So teams should just accept they will have 25+ million for no production 10 years out? No matter how high the luxury tax line goes, that's rough business
Owners seem to be doing well, no? The market’s the market, these are smart people and I don’t think they’re throwing darts.

I just feel bad for the dude’s playing in the 60’s driving ten year old cars.
 

TimScribble

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I feel like this is more about the years than the money. I’m sure the Sox would have been fine at $25M a year, but doubt they wanted to go past 7, maybe 8 years. Which is why they shouldn’t have screwed this up when they had the exclusivity.
 

TimScribble

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Interesting formulation about Xander feeling like he had "no choice" but to take the much more lucrative offer. I mean, of course he had a choice.
If it’s true the Sox were under $200M, then the choice was about $100M. Hard choice to pass up.
 

Blizzard of 1978

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I'm surprised people think we'll be real players for Correa. I say this not as someone who believes the ownership group is "cheap" or that Bloom is incompetent. I say this as someone with some evidence that this front office does not want to offer $250M - $350M contracts to anyone.
I agree. Pass on Correa and just sign Devers. Bloom was quoted as saying the Red Sox can afford one 300 million player. That's Devers. Rather have Devers long term than X or Correa
 

nvalvo

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My first choice now is to turn to the trade market — I'd like to see if Kim or Adames could be shaken loose.
 

OurF'ingCity

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Semien was coming off an 8 WAR season, the Sox were coming off a year where they were a few plays away from a pennant, X reportedly wanted to be a Sox for life, and Boras had just watched his biggest FA strike out and have to settle for what was effectively a 1-year deal with player options.
A 1-year deal after which he’s now going to get multiple Brinks trucks backed up to his house. Boras did not screw up the Correa situation at all.

Boras clients test the market. They pretty much always do, and the fact that X hired Boras in the first place puts the lie to the suggestion that he wanted to take some team-friendly deal to be a “Sox for life.”
 

Mystic Merlin

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Semien was coming off an 8 WAR season, the Sox were coming off a year where they were a few plays away from a pennant, X reportedly wanted to be a Sox for life, and Boras had just watched his biggest FA strike out and have to settle for what was effectively a 1-year deal with player options.
Aaron Judge turned down every extension offer from the Yankees leading up to open FA, so I guess Boras clients don’t spook?
 

scottyno

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The players aren't retiring and will collect every dollar. But the clubs know that $280/8 years = $35M AAV. Better to make it 11 years at $25.5M AAV for the luxury tax, knowing that there is a good chance that the players will be cooked for the last couple years and could be released if need be.
In which case they'll have a 25m hit on the tax for zero production, that isn't a good thing either. Maybe they aren't concerned about it now, but it's a huge issue down the road.
 

greek_gawd_of_walks

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Are you suggesting that the Sox should not attempt to be contenders now that Bogaerts left? He was and is a great player but that seems a little extreme.
I'm just suggesting that paying that much for a closer with a shit team in the field and in the lineup doesn't make a ton of sense. Bogaerts wouldn't even have improved the team, from the sense he was already here last year.

I think all their dominoes we're required the one with the X on it to fall first. It didn't.

I'll see what happens next, but it feels like they're really on their backfoot now.

Also, I'm not sure signing Correa in response is smart, given his age and history of injuries. It might feel good to get another another impact SS in here right now, but I wasn't willing to pay what X got, I can't fathom what Correa is thinking now.
 

E5 Yaz

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I agree. Pass on Correa and just sign Devers. Bloom was quoted as saying the Red Sox can afford one 300 million player. That's Devers. Rather have Devers long term than X or Correa
Will Devers want to sign now without being able to play next to X? And, given the exponential increase in salaries, why wouldn't he want to wait until next offseason?
 

Spelunker

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I mean, I don't know that I'd want X on a contact until he's 41, but still: he's played the most games at SS in Sox history (which is already crazy).

Actually, saying that makes me feel a bit better about the deal: singing the guy with the 120 year franchise record in games played at his position to an 11 year deal seems...ish.

I realize I'm already in the bargaining phase.
 

Murby

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Will Devers want to sign now without being able to play next to X? And, given the exponential increase in salaries, why wouldn't he want to wait until next offseason?
Correct. Either way, this number just went up: a) the market is insane, b) Betts is gone. Vazquez is gone. Xander is gone, & c) the team looks decidedly worse right now
 

pdaj

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Will Devers want to sign now without being able to play next to X? And, given the exponential increase in salaries, why wouldn't he want to wait until next offseason?
If Devers doesn't extend by the trade deadline, he'll be dealt -- Soto style. There's no way Bloom risks another Mookie or, worse, Xander situation with his most valuable player ("asset").
 

TapeAndPosts

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If it’s true the Sox were under $200M, then the choice was about $100M. Hard choice to pass up.
Just something about the "he had no choice" phrasing struck me. If he wants max dollars, clearly that is the choice to make. But saying he had no choice sounds like deflecting away from the fact that he did have a choice, and the richest contract is what he chose.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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If it’s true the Sox were under $200M, then the choice was about $100M. Hard choice to pass up.
All this makes it sound like Boras told the Padres to make an offer the Sox could not match and they went crazy. It sounds like they probably could have given a number that was lower that still would have beaten the Sox but instead they chose a number that left zero doubt and made it clear that even asking would be dumb.

They probably knew they had a player who preferred Boston a little so they made an offer that left no doubt, even if it was an overspend. What can you do? Fucking 11/280?
 

EvilEmpire

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Interesting formulation about Xander feeling like he had "no choice" but to take the much more lucrative offer. I mean, of course he had a choice.
Maybe. Apparently the Padres offered Judge $400 million but he took $360 to stay with the Yankees. I think it is possible that Bogaerts would have stayed with Boston at less than $280, but if the Sox offer was around or less than $200, I could see the gap being too big. Would he have signed with Boston for $240? Who knows.

Seems like reasonable decisions for Bogaerts and the Sox both.
 

E5 Yaz

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If Devers doesn't extend by the trade deadline, he'll be dealt -- Soto style. There's no way Bloom risks another Mookie or, worse, Xander situation with his most valuable player ("asset").
But this time it will turn out different!
 

chawson

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I'm surprised people think we'll be real players for Correa. I say this not as someone who believes the ownership group is "cheap" or that Bloom is incompetent. I say this as someone with some evidence that this front office does not want to offer $250M - $350M contracts to anyone.
They're going to have to eventually. Here are the teams with >$200M contracts on the books:

ATL
CIN
DET
LAA (2)
LAD
MIL
NYY (3*)
PHI (2)
SDP (3)
SEA
STL
TEX
WAS

Here are the teams with >$150M contracts on the books:

ATL (2)
CIN
COL
DET
HOU
LAA (2)
LAD (2)
MIL
NYM
NYY (3)
PHI (2)
SDP (3)
SEA
STL
TBR
TEX (3)
TOR
WAS
 

OurF'ingCity

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I'm just suggesting that paying that much for a closer with a shit team in the field and in the lineup doesn't make a ton of sense. Bogaerts wouldn't even have improved the team, from the sense he was already here last year.

I think all their dominoes we're required the one with the X on it to fall first. It didn't.

I'll see what happens next, but it feels like they're really on their backfoot now.
If you assume they can get just a league-average SS, that’s a WAR drop off of, what, something like 2-3 wins depending on how well Bogaerts would have done in a non-contract year?

The Sox are probably hoping Yoshida alone makes up that difference, and Jansen and Martin combined should be good for at least 1 WAR or so (with upside for more). So one way of looking at things is that the Sox have already improved the team despite Xander leaving.

Now, to be sure, they have a big hole to dig out of, but, on the other hand, they presumably are not done making moves.
 

TapeAndPosts

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I mean, I don't know that I'd want X on a contact until he's 41, but still: he's played the most games at SS in Sox history (which is already crazy).

Actually, saying that makes me feel a bit better about the deal: singing the guy with the 120 year franchise record in games played at his position to an 11 year deal seems...ish.

I realize I'm already in the bargaining phase.
I get where you're going. There is a very good chance the ten years Xander gave us will be way, way superior to the eleven years he will (in theory) give San Diego. Of course you never know, he could be a freak and be better in his thirties than his twenties. But in all probability, we got most of the good stuff.
 

Rice4HOF

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My basic accounting sucks, so what is the NPV on 280 mil over 11 years?
According to Excel's NPV formula, depending on your assumptions on discount rate:
Disc rate $ Millions
1%​
$264​
2%​
$249​
3%​
$236​
4%​
$223​
5%​
$211​
6%​
$201​
7%​
$191​
8%​
$182​
9%​
$173​
10%​
$165​
 

TimScribble

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All this makes it sound like Boras told the Padres to make an offer the Sox could not match and they went crazy. It sounds like they probably could have given a number that was lower that still would have beaten the Sox but instead they chose a number that left zero doubt and made it clear that even asking would be dumb.
I was trying to figure out how to type the same thing. Basically, here’s the Sox offer but you’re gonna have to blow it out if the water. You don’t want the same Judge situation.
 

Marciano490

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They're going to have to eventually. Here are the teams with >$200M contracts on the books:

ATL
CIN
DET
LAA (2)
LAD
MIL
NYY (3*)
PHI (2)
SDP (3)
SEA
STL
TEX
WAS

Here are the teams with >$150M contracts on the books:

ATL (2)
CIN
COL
DET
HOU
LAA (2)
LAD (2)
MIL
NYM
NYY (3)
PHI (2)
SDP (3)
SEA
STL
TBR
TEX (3)
TOR
WAS
Winning was easier before everyone else got smart. Maybe with everyone looking for deals, overspending from an endless reservoir of cash is the new market inefficiency. It’s competition, screw the have nots.
 

ponch73

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Take it with a grain of salt since it's a small sample size, but here are Xander's collective career slash lines in NL West ballparks:

SDP (27 PA) .200 / .407 / .250
SFG (13 PA) .154 / .154 / .154
LAD (18 PA) .294 / .278 / .294
COL (11 PA) .556 / .636 / 1.778
ARI (13 PA) .182/ .308 / .182
NL West (82 PA): .257 / .354 / .429

He has raked in Colorado, but not so much anywhere else. He's getting older, and his power, exit velocities and hard hit % are all trending downward. And his numbers last year were goosed by a BABIP that was well above his historical norms.

I'm willing to wager that this will be a free agent signing San Diego will come to regret.
 
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Blizzard of 1978

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Sep 12, 2022
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Martin and Jansen were just brought in on 2 year deals to bolster the pen, the team has taken a big step toward fixing some of the issues in the OF and your good with a stop gap at SS?
Well, I wanted X back, but 11 years is crazy, especially with Mayer on the way. I really think the Red Sox will sign Devers long term now. Ps. Iggy is pretty good defense wise.
 

RG33

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while it stinks to lose a guy like X, this will end up being the right decision. I’m fine with it.