Why doesn't the USA produce the best big men in the world anymore?

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Oct 1, 2015
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Simple question. The answer may not be.

But the US doesn't produce the best big men in the world anymore, and I wonder why.

Jokic
Giannis
Embiid (naturalized US citizen but he wasn't American-produced)
Gobert

Why is this? We have an enormous basketball-playing population with tons of bigs.
 

the moops

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Simple question. The answer may not be.

But the US doesn't produce the best big men in the world anymore, and I wonder why.

Jokic
Giannis
Embiid (naturalized US citizen but he wasn't American-produced)
Gobert

Why is this? We have an enormous basketball-playing population with tons of bigs.
I wouldn't consider Giannis a big man like those other dudes.

And US has produced Anthony Davis, Bam Adebayo, Brook Lopez, Jaren Jackson Jr who collectively are pretty damn good (not Jokic level but nobody is)
 

jezza1918

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Simple question. The answer may not be.

But the US doesn't produce the best big men in the world anymore, and I wonder why.

Jokic
Giannis
Embiid (naturalized US citizen but he wasn't American-produced)
Gobert

Why is this? We have an enormous basketball-playing population with tons of bigs.
A bit reductive but my first thought is actually pretty simple: Steph Curry.
 

lovegtm

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I wouldn't consider Giannis a big man like those other dudes.

And US has produced Anthony Davis, Bam Adebayo, Brook Lopez, Jaren Jackson Jr who collectively are pretty damn good (not Jokic level but nobody is)
I think this is on the right track.

There are tons more people in the world playing basketball now. Further, basketball is really the only sport you can play if you're 7 feet tall.

So basketball sucks up a disproportionate amount of global 7-foot tall athletic guys.

There can only be a couple "best big men in the world" at a given time. When the pool of those is fully global, you probably get the current situation (top 2 centers are foreign) quite often just by random chance.
 

bankshot1

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I think this is on the right track.

There are tons more people in the world playing basketball now. Further, basketball is really the only sport you can play if you're 7 feet tall.

So basketball sucks up a disproportionate amount of global 7-foot tall athletic guys.

There can only be a couple "best big men in the world" at a given time. When the pool of those is fully global, you probably get the current situation (top 2 centers are foreign) quite often just by random chance.
Thats my answer.

The numerator stayed the same at around 5 but the denominator got a lot bigger as the rest of the world's tall guys learned the game over the past couple of decades. So the odds of Made in the USA declined.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Thats my answer.

The numerator stayed the same at around 5 but the denominator got a lot bigger as the rest of the world's tall guys learned the game over the past couple of decades. So the odds of Made in the USA declined.
But wouldn't the same ratio apply to non-bigs as well? Millions more non-bigs play hoops around the world, but by far the best ones come from the USA.
 

scottyno

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But wouldn't the same ratio apply to non-bigs as well? Millions more non-bigs play hoops around the world, but by far the best ones come from the USA.
The non bigs play soccer or rugby depending on where they're from
 

BigSoxFan

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Funny, I wouldn't consider Gobert like those other dudes.



Mine is Kevin Durant. Our big guys don't grow up wanting to play like traditional big guys.
It’s interesting. Look at rebounding. Top 10 only has 2 Americans (AD and Randle).

Switch to blocked shots and it’s 8 Americans (only Embiid and Porzingis). Pretty crazy that Gobert’s dipped so much last year. Wonder if that was a function of playing with another big in Towns and now he can’t just camp out in the paint.
 

bankshot1

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But wouldn't the same ratio apply to non-bigs as well? Millions more non-bigs play hoops around the world, but by far the best ones come from the USA.
Guys 6'3 got more choices than 7 footers.

They can be jockeys.

But on a slighly more serious note, international players are becoming more prominent, all over the court in the NBA over the past 20+ years.
 

lovegtm

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But wouldn't the same ratio apply to non-bigs as well? Millions more non-bigs play hoops around the world, but by far the best ones come from the USA.
No, because elite athletes who are 6-3 have a ton more choices of sport, depending on the sport of choice in their region.

7-foot elite athletes have (pretty much) just one choice: basketball. Embiid, Hakeem and Gobert all had other sports they loved more, before realizing that basketball was by far the most realistic one.

All the US 7-footers have been funneled to basketball for 50+ years. As the sport has expanded globally, the non US 7-footers have as well.
 

bankshot1

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They got more choices in the US too though.
They do. But some of these kids get pegged at 10 as basketball savants and are already 6 ft, and get put on a development track for AAU ball, 1 year college and 10 in the NBA. The NBA money is so powerful and comes so early (versus MLB/minor league or the NFL/college) it probably skews choices.
 

yeahlunchbox

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Funny, I wouldn't consider Gobert like those other dudes.



Mine is Kevin Durant. Our big guys don't grow up wanting to play like traditional big guys.
This is what I think, Kevin Durant and AAU/college culture. Nobody wants to be the traditional big man, they want to be the versatile big that can score at all levels and when those guys go up against traditional bigs down low they get their lunch handed to them.
 

BigSoxFan

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This is what I think, Kevin Durant and AAU/college culture. Nobody wants to be the traditional big man, they want to be the versatile big that can score at all levels and when those guys go up against traditional bigs down low they get their lunch handed to them.
Which is the right move given how the game has evolved. Now, it seems like the only traditional bigs are the ones who lack the athleticism to play on the perimeter (i.e., they have no choice).
 

Saints Rest

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Which is the right move given how the game has evolved. Now, it seems like the only traditional bigs are the ones who lack the athleticism to play on the perimeter (i.e., they have no choice).
I wonder if the boys who grow up to be tall who do in other cultures, spend more time in their pre-teen years developing better/more all-around athleticism, thus they are better prepared to be a Jokic or Giannis or Embiid, than a Luke Kornet.
 

BigSoxFan

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I wonder if the boys who grow up to be tall who do in other cultures, spend more time in their pre-teen years developing better/more all-around athleticism, thus they are better prepared to be a Jokic or Giannis or Embiid, than a Luke Kornet.
I think that definitely plays a role. European big passing has been a thing for a while now. In the US, it’s all about getting your shot up.

I do wonder how a Tim Duncan would develop nowadays. He had solid athleticism but wasn’t elite in that department. But everything else was just so advanced. Conversely, KG was really a unicorn and ahead of the times. If he grew up today, he would probably just extend his range a few feet.
 

Kliq

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This is a weird conversation.

For starters, Joel Embiid played basketball for one year of his life and then moved to the US. The US produced him, for all intents and purposes.

People talking about Kevin Durant, bigs shooting threes, etc. is funny because European bigs were largely the first players to bring that style. Remember Dirk Nowitzki? It's not that Americans developed a new playing style for bigs and the Europeans have stuck to a traditional model--the foreign players are the ones who largely introduced a more well-rounded offensive style to big man play.

The real answer is that basketball is becoming more globally popular, and more people play basketball outside the United States, so outside-the-US players make up a higher percentage of the world's best players than they did in prior generations. This is especially true for big men, given that the requirement to be a good big man in the NBA starts with you being in the 0.000001% height percentile. The odds are that people in that height percentile are NOT going to be from the United States.

There is a reason most foreign-born players tend to be big men. Just like there is a reason most players who tend to play past 35 are big men. There is just a real shortage of people that can meet the physical requirements necessary to play at an elite level, and if you fit that profile, there are scouts all over the world trying to find you.

Basketball is a global game, played by millions of people, but unlike soccer, baseball, track, or other sports, it's incredibly selective on the physical dimensions a person needs to have to play at an elite level. It's a real genetic lottery, and that means that good players can come from anywhere, with some countries producing more than others.

One of the most interesting things that took place in the FIBA Championships was South Sudan handily beating China. China has spent billions of dollars to try and become a basketball power, and yet they were easily defeated by one of the poorest countries in the world. That happened largely because despite it's massive population, the Chinese people are not particularly physically suited to play basketball. On the flip side, it's the perfect game for the people of South Sudan.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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That happened largely because despite it's massive population, the Chinese people are not particularly physically suited to play basketball. On the flip side, it's the perfect game for the people of South Sudan.
Whoa there - you're starting to sound like Jimmy the Greek.

Even for the sake of argument that what you say has any scientific basis, China is so big that a couple of outliers could make or break the program. While I don't know a ton of details on the Chinese sports development program, I'd assume that their problems lie along those lines. See, e.g., http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202309/04/WS64f52a63a310d2dce4bb3b17.html.

The article also notes that the Chinese men's soccer team has disappointed as well. I would think that international sporting failures had more to do with development than biology.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Simple question. The answer may not be.

But the US doesn't produce the best big men in the world anymore, and I wonder why.
Funny, I was thinking about the starting the same thread but after looking into it, I didn't think I really had enough information to even start a conversation.

In looking at some stuff (including, e.g., https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/168z3jt/why_has_american_big_man_talent_fallen_off_a/), some people are pointing to AAU. Theory being AAU coaches are trying to win not develop. Big men take more development. A European academy system where big men can develop actual BBall skills - instead of just setting picks, rim running, blocking shots, and dunking on fast breaks and put-backs - is probably more beneficial to big men than what goes in AAU ball.

In addition, as mentioned above, the "big men" who are skilled are handling the ball and shooting 3Ps. Look at KD. I mean Tatum is what - 6'9"-ish - and his game is closer to a guard than a traditional big man because he grew up playing PG.
 

InstaFace

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Whoa there - you're starting to sound like Jimmy the Greek.

Even for the sake of argument that what you say has any scientific basis, China is so big that a couple of outliers could make or break the program. While I don't know a ton of details on the Chinese sports development program, I'd assume that their problems lie along those lines. See, e.g., http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202309/04/WS64f52a63a310d2dce4bb3b17.html.

The article also notes that the Chinese men's soccer team has disappointed as well. I would think that international sporting failures had more to do with development than biology.
Yao Ming is pleased by this retort.
 

AlNipper49

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They do. But some of these kids get pegged at 10 as basketball savants and are already 6 ft, and get put on a development track for AAU ball, 1 year college and 10 in the NBA. The NBA money is so powerful and comes so early (versus MLB/minor league or the NFL/college) it probably skews choices.
Plus it is way, way cheaper to play. Same goes for soccer. Baseball and Football do not stand a chance globally.