Why Are Prospects Not Hitting at the MLB Level?

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I’m curious why that gap has grown…. Hasn’t been an expansion team in 3 decades. The 26 man roster?

The 26-man is probably part of it. I suspect the increase in pitching injuries plays a role too. High quality pitchers don't linger in the minors as long because they're needed in the majors. Guys who might have spent a year at each level building themselves up are pressed into max effort relieving instead.

 

[nvalvo]

I’m curious why that gap has grown…. Hasn’t been an expansion team in 3 decades. The 26 man roster?

The lost 2020 season and one fewer minor league affiliate per team seem like they might be factors.

 

[simplicio]

The 26-man is probably part of it. I suspect the increase in pitching injuries plays a role too. High quality pitchers don't linger in the minors as long because they're needed in the majors. Guys who might have spent a year at each level building themselves up are pressed into max effort relieving instead.

I've heard the same; they just aren't seeing as many good pitchers in the minors as they used . Plus the ABS system being deployed in AAA gives hitters another edge there, but then they lose it coming to MLB while also suddenly facing catchers that are really good at framing for the first time.

 

[TrotNixonRing]

Keith Law touched on this in his last chat:

“
A Salty Scientist: In recent years lots of prospects have really struggled with the MLB transition. One hypothesis I’ve seen is that the reduction of minor league teams has bled out some of the veteran AAAA types that increase the challenge for top prospects. Not sure that I buy that, but curious if you have any thoughts.
Keith Law: I agree, and I’ve been saying so (based on feedback from scouts) since 2021. Mike Elias made very similar, pointed comments on it last week when they sent Holliday down. I also think that the rise of pitching labs & pitch design has made major-league pitching stronger than ever – and if you can make those adjustments, you don’t stay in the minors long, so the caliber of pitching down there hasn’t advanced as quickly.
“

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Keith Law touched on this in his last chat:

“
A Salty Scientist: In recent years lots of prospects have really struggled with the MLB transition. One hypothesis I’ve seen is that the reduction of minor league teams has bled out some of the veteran AAAA types that increase the challenge for top prospects. Not sure that I buy that, but curious if you have any thoughts.
Keith Law: I agree, and I’ve been saying so (based on feedback from scouts) since 2021. Mike Elias made very similar, pointed comments on it last week when they sent Holliday down. I also think that the rise of pitching labs & pitch design has made major-league pitching stronger than ever – and if you can make those adjustments, you don’t stay in the minors long, so the caliber of pitching down there hasn’t advanced as quickly.
“

all this stuff should probably be a separate thread?

 

[absintheofmalaise]

Broken out of the Rafaela thread.

 

[SirPsychoSquints]

These hitters are also adjusting to the MLB strikezone and umpires, which is now a bigger change because they have the ABS/challenge system in the minors.

ETA: https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/minor-league-hitters-struggling-with-umpire-strike-zones

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Players seem to be getting moved up much more aggressively than in the past. Many of these guys struggling at the big league level have very little professional experience. Of course, they are being moved aggressively because they aren’t being challenged….until they reach the bigs. Ideally, you’d want a player to have to deal with some adversity on a smaller stage, but if that’s not happening..hard to know the solution.

 

[chrisfont9]

Seems like there is a ton of value in bringing guys up later in the season, if your team isn't a serious contender for anything more than wild card scraps. Wilyer, for example, started on his learning curve last summer, and needed a bit more time getting going, but was already half way up his learning curve. Of course he was billed as a more polished hitter compared to some top prospects like Ceddanne, whose education might last a bit longer and who needs his glove to justify the longer leash. Anyway, teams will need to be more strategic than maybe they used to be.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Seems like there is a ton of value in bringing guys up later in the season, if your team isn't a serious contender for anything more than wild card scraps. Wilyer, for example, started on his learning curve last summer, and needed a bit more time getting going, but was already half way up his learning curve. Of course he was billed as a more polished hitter compared to some top prospects like Ceddanne, whose education might last a bit longer and who needs his glove to justify the longer leash. Anyway, teams will need to be more strategic than maybe they used to be.

Although I agree, there still seems to be lots of “late season callups” that kick ass for a few months and then struggle the following season as a full-timer for a while too (totally anecdotal- I can’t really think of anyone…. Casas maybe?)

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Casas was the opposite of that.

 

[chrisfont9]

Although I agree, there still seems to be lots of “late season callups” that kick ass for a few months and then struggle the following season as a full-timer for a while too (totally anecdotal- I can’t really think of anyone…. Casas maybe?)

The usual progression is not just the hitter adjusting but pitchers discovering a weakness and then the hitter adjusting to them adjusting to him. I think I'm just being super obvious here. Bottom line, it takes some time, and everyone's exact time is different. I guess the only thing new is that if pitchers are so much more sophisticated now, which seems to be the case, then young hitters will need a bit more leash, and young teams can't expect to succeed right away.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Seems like there is a ton of value in bringing guys up later in the season, if your team isn't a serious contender for anything more than wild card scraps. Wilyer, for example, started on his learning curve last summer, and needed a bit more time getting going, but was already half way up his learning curve. Of course he was billed as a more polished hitter compared to some top prospects like Ceddanne, whose education might last a bit longer and who needs his glove to justify the longer leash. Anyway, teams will need to be more strategic than maybe they used to be.

So perhaps the limiting of September roster expansions to 28 instead of all 40 is playing a role? Even teams out of contention can't exactly do a wholesale youth movement to get guys cups of coffee late in the year. At least not without DFAing or ILing a few players to make room.

 

[zenax]

Look at Salem. The team has played 30 games and struck out 332 times (11.07 K/Gm) with Jhostynxon Garcia at 47.78% (43/90) and Johanfran Garcia at 39.56% (36/91).

 

[Rovin Romine]

So perhaps the limiting of September roster expansions to 28 instead of all 40 is playing a role? Even teams out of contention can't exactly do a wholesale youth movement to get guys cups of coffee late in the year. At least not without DFAing or ILing a few players to make room.

I'd think so. (Also, seeing new guys get a chance was always one of the better parts of September baseball.)

 

[scottyno]

Although I agree, there still seems to be lots of “late season callups” that kick ass for a few months and then struggle the following season as a full-timer for a while too (totally anecdotal- I can’t really think of anyone…. Casas maybe?)

Dalbec had a .949 ops in 23 games during the covid season. We know how that turned out

 

[DanoooME]

The other factor is all these relievers that throw 95+, with ridiculous movement and breaking balls. The resultant reduction of starting pitcher innings has made it more difficult for hitters in general, and that would negatively affect the younger hitters more that don't have the experience to handle the better pitching.

 

[6-5 Sadler]

In addition to some of the factors mentioned above, I wonder to what extent the increase in pitcher injuries is contributing to this disparity between AAA and the majors. The theory would be that when an MLB pitcher is injured, he is replaced on the roster by top tier talent from AAA. Obviously there are other factors (options, 40-man, etc.) but if a team is looking to compete, they’re going to want their best players up. But the backfill on the AAA roster isn’t necessarily the top talent from AA as they would generally just keep those guys on their development paths. This would, in theory, hollow out the overall talent level of pitching in AAA.

 

[jon abbey]

I think making the jump from an electronic strike zone in AAA to a league where umps don't give much respect to rookie hitters usually is a big factor. Check out all the called strikes outside the zone against Wyatt Langford so far this season:

View: https://twitter.com/mdthomp_PLive/status/1788716900530225199