Which rookie will have greatest impact next 3 years?

Which rookie will make the largest impact in next 3 years

  • Romeo Langford

    Votes: 15 10.9%
  • Grant Williams

    Votes: 50 36.5%
  • Carsen Edwards

    Votes: 66 48.2%
  • Tremont Waters

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Tacko Fall

    Votes: 6 4.4%

  • Total voters
    137

bowiac

I've been living a lie.
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Dec 18, 2003
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wade boggs chicken dinner

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Mar 26, 2005
16,736
Here's what I mean about Edwards' passing (or lack thereof) being concerning. Here's a complete list of guys 6'2" or below who have logged 1000 minutes in an NBA season while 1) taking more than 1/5 of a team's possessions; and 2) less than a 15% assist rate. It's a strange list, and there have only been 13 such seasons that would be classified as "above replacement level." Lou Williams is the obvious upside case, but you see how uncommon that profile is to be successful.
Interesting list, thanks. Eddie House, Lou Williams, and Lindsey Hunter seem like reasonable comps for 'Arson.

BTW, did you see this Stepien two-part analysis of 'Arson? Interested what you think about the articles. The articles suggests that Edwards' gravity could make his passing less important than typical.

For others, links here. https://www.thestepien.com/2019/05/15/draft-notes-carsen-edwards-part-1/

 

Sprowl

mikey lowell of the sandbox
Dope
Jun 27, 2006
31,508
Haiku
Because someone is also going to have to cover a guard when those three are on the court together. I think that guy should clearly be Jaylen. Even when Jaylen is on the court with one of them and say Kemba and Smart. I'd much rather have Jaylen on the likely quicker wing player than the likely bigger 4/small 4/other forward/whatever we're calling it.

I don't think any of the three is a great option playing a bigger guy, but think Jaylen is definitely the best option to cover the quickest guy.
The best option for defending a big guy in the post by bodying him up and denying him post position is Marcus Smart. When Walker, Smart, Brown, Tatum and Hayward are on the court together (which they will be, especially at the end of games), Smart is the inside defender and de facto Big. He can root any post player off his spot and goad him into charges. Smart also has the emotion and personality of a team leader.

Brown's defensive skills are better suited to smothering an opposing wing on the drive. Tatum's premier defensive skill is blocking shots off his man. Hayward played excellent defense on Durant in 2017, but I doubt that we'll ever see that level of defense from him again.

Smallball lies before us, like it or not.

***

To answer the thread's question, my money is on Grant Williams. The Celtics will need Bigs, and Williams is quasi-Big in the same way that Smart is: strong, intelligent, disruptive and clear on team defensive concepts. Brad Stevens played Ojeleye a lot in 2017-2018 not only because he could move his feet on defense against Antetokounmpo, but because he grokked defensive rotations. Semi might have bricked three-pointers, failed to attack close outs, and otherwise weighed the team down, but his quick feet got him into defensive position often enough to earn Stevens' trust.

Grant Williams is Semi Ojeleye with a post game, who can rebound in traffic. Grant is a Full Ojeleye, and Stevens will love him.
 

mcpickl

Member
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Jul 23, 2007
3,222
The best option for defending a big guy in the post by bodying him up and denying him post position is Marcus Smart. When Walker, Smart, Brown, Tatum and Hayward are on the court together (which they will be, especially at the end of games), Smart is the inside defender and de facto Big. He can root any post player off his spot and goad him into charges. Smart also has the emotion and personality of a team leader.

Brown's defensive skills are better suited to smothering an opposing wing on the drive. Tatum's premier defensive skill is blocking shots off his man. Hayward played excellent defense on Durant in 2017, but I doubt that we'll ever see that level of defense from him again.

Smallball lies before us, like it or not.

***

To answer the thread's question, my money is on Grant Williams. The Celtics will need Bigs, and Williams is quasi-Big in the same way that Smart is: strong, intelligent, disruptive and clear on team defensive concepts. Brad Stevens played Ojeleye a lot in 2017-2018 not only because he could move his feet on defense against Antetokounmpo, but because he grokked defensive rotations. Semi might have bricked three-pointers, failed to attack close outs, and otherwise weighed the team down, but his quick feet got him into defensive position often enough to earn Stevens' trust.

Grant Williams is Semi Ojeleye with a post game, who can rebound in traffic. Grant is a Full Ojeleye, and Stevens will love him.
I think there is near zero chance we ever see that lineup outside of shot clock is off and you have the ball for a last possession.

Smart can be used in the post against taller guys, but I wouldn't use him a lot on bigger guys. That trick can work on guys like Porzingis who's much taller than Smart, but Smart is stronger than him and he can just get into his body and shove him off his spot. Using Smart against guys that are much taller and not thin isn't a way I'd use him. I much prefer him suffocating guards/wings who are trying to operate in space and Smart just beats them to their spot time and time again.
 

Eddie Jurak

Go Leafs Go
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Dec 12, 2002
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I expect every team that has the personnel to do so to play two bigs and run that small lineup off the floor. Maybe two-thirds of the time is too high an estimate, but the C’s will play two bigs a lot more often than folks here are expecting (and probably more often than Danny and Brad are planning).
It's going to be weirder than you think because the Celtics bigs are a weird lot with nary a complete player between them (until/unless TL breaks out).
  • Kanter: Historically bad defensive player, bad at all aspects of defense, not going to stop the Embiids from posting up, not going to have a chance on switches and against quicker players. But very good post scorer and offensive rebounder who I predict will add a legitimate 3-poin shot to his game.
  • Theis: 6'8". Great stretch 5 in a 5-out offense, but not going to compete against the big centers.
  • Poirier: This is a body who can bang with the big guys, but probably too slow to handle PnR switches, etc.
  • Time Lord: If he gets his act together, he's a legit NBA center.
  • Grant Williams: Not a center
  • Ojeleye: Might be in the mix for a few minutes here
Guys are going to rotate through as Stevens plays matchups, but the Celtics will do a good but of trying to dictate the style of play by going smaller and more skilled whenever he can get away with it, and mix in these other guys when he can't.
 

benhogan

Baynes Hogan (pending trade)
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Nov 2, 2007
6,635
Santa Monica
It's going to be weirder than you think because the Celtics bigs are a weird lot with nary a complete player between them (until/unless TL breaks out).
  • Kanter: Historically bad defensive player, bad at all aspects of defense, not going to stop the Embiids from posting up, not going to have a chance on switches and against quicker players. But very good post scorer and offensive rebounder who I predict will add a legitimate 3-poin shot to his game.
  • Theis: 6'8". Great stretch 5 in a 5-out offense, but not going to compete against the big centers.
  • Poirier: This is a body who can bang with the big guys, but probably too slow to handle PnR switches, etc.
  • Time Lord: If he gets his act together, he's a legit NBA center.
  • Grant Williams: Not a center
  • Ojeleye: Might be in the mix for a few minutes here
Guys are going to rotate through as Stevens plays matchups, but the Celtics will do a good but of trying to dictate the style of play by going smaller and more skilled whenever he can get away with it, and mix in these other guys when he can't.
The best thing about that list is it doesn't contain Guershon Yabusele anymore.


Here is an interesting write-up on our future 4/big wing/swing Grant Williams from 7 months ago: