After watching four years of shit at the most important position in any sport, I'd like to see them take a shot at finding a QB.
What do you want Pats to do with #3?
- Thread starter BigSoxFan
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not really. Where you get screwed is if you are the one giving up assets to move up and you miss. If you miss at 3, you're just out a 1st like any other bust 1st, and you try again
Right, because if you trade down you'll hit on a *bunch* of "can't misses" that permeate the bottom of the first round and top of the second round. None of those guys turn out to be dreck.
Except that it's probably going to take us a few years to figure out we missed at QB. We have to blame every other position group and the coaches first, right?
100%. And, while certainly not the desired outcome, if you miss at QB at 3, you're going to continue to suck, so you will have the opportunity to add a few blue chippers before you take a swing at QB again.
Right, it's better to roll with Jacoby Brissett, the 5th-best OT draftee this year, the 6th-best WR draftee this year, and the 4th-best WR draftee next year.
If they take him, I'll root hard for him, but I think it's a mistake. Not likely you can trade too far down to get him, anyway. Should just take him at 3 if he's your guy.
What's the explanation for McCarthy being used the way he was if he is this exceptionally talented QB? I understand that Michigan focused on its strengths on offense just like any team should and that he came through in big spots, people seem to like his demeanor, he has athleticism, but you would think a coach with Harbaugh's experience could find ways to incorporate the passing game more if he had a wunderkind at QB.
What am I missing?
What am I missing?
I gave up trading down for him a few weeks ago. And I'd take him at #3, but I'll root for Maye or whoever we draft. Like I said, I'm just a guy with a laptop.
Surprised no one has posted McCarthy's throwing session at his pro day:
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jkm7ilkacuA
I don't understand the point of this. There's no defense. Every team would score on every team if they didn't have to face a single defender. (Well, every team but the 0223 Pats maybe.)
Well, probably a few QBs have hurt their stock with relatively poor pro days (e.g., Teddy Bridgewater). McCarthy threw so little during the season, it might have been useful to see what he could do, specifically, throwing left, or with touch, or the long ball. But I can't imagine it did much except to "keep the momentum going."
I'm good with whoever falls to #3 at QB. The one option I don't think they should entertain is giving up future 1sts to move up. This team will need to rebuild the offense from the studs out over the next few seasons. I don't see anyone currently on the roster that will play a significant role save for Owenu, maybe Strange/Sow and to a lesser extent Pop and all of them are easily replaceable. The rest of the offensive roster will need to be turned over as players age out or just aren't that good to begin with. This team can't afford to give up future picks that will need to be invested into the offense.
CAR is going to be in purgatory for several years due to the haul they gave up just to draft Bryce Young. You could put Mahomes on that team and they wouldn't make the playoffs.
CAR is going to be in purgatory for several years due to the haul they gave up just to draft Bryce Young. You could put Mahomes on that team and they wouldn't make the playoffs.
Isn't that the point? If someone gives you a godfather offer and you turn it down and the guy busts, you're on that .250 treadmill for a long time. This is not an endorsement of any Minnesota deal, because one late first, one mid first, and one possible mid first isn't a godfather offer.
But, on the other hand, if the Giants offered up 6, 38, 47, plus a '25 1st and a '26 2nd and you turn it down and you take a QB for the sake of it at #3 (this discussion was in the context that the guy NE wants wasn't the one left), you've closed a road to rebuilding the talent base. I mean I guess the bright side is that the team is so shitty at the moment that if the guy they draft busts they have the inside track on the Arch Manning sweepstakes.
Problem being taking the “godfather” offer necessitates one of the following:
Finding a QB outside of pick #3/6 (if you like him enough to take at 6, you just take at 3 and don’t risk him going elsewhere). Outside of the 1st round, the hit rate of QB’s is tiny (about 4% ever qualify as a over average let alone good)
Trading your own godfather package next year which reduces any benefit of the extra picks you get this year since you’ll have to give up similar or more to move up to get a QB
Being terrible enough (or having whatever team you trade with be terrible enough) to be in position to get a top QB prospect next year AND have that guy be a guy you like more than whatever Maye/Daniels/McCarthy you’re passing on this year
On top of that, you would need to hit on those “godfather” picks not only at a higher than expected rate but at valuable positions. If you’re punting the Qb decision down the road a minimum of one year (and that’s assuming you are positioned next year and a guy you like is there for you), you can’t walk out of that godfather package with a useful guard, great FS, serviceable and a slot WR
And you still need to hit on a QB since even the “hits” from the godfather package won’t be enough to carry a Brissett/Zappe led team. See Calvin Johnson, Joe Thomas or Washington version of Trent Williams
Carolina will only be in purgatory as a result of that trade if Young sucks. If he turns into a good QB, they can overcome the loss of this year’s first and next year’s second moving forward
Their roster is bad but that’s largely due to inept drafting (Mingo being the obvious example but their whole class last year was horrendous) and handling the Burns situation poorly
And if Young is still abysmal this year, they might go back to the QB spot in 2026. That’s probably a preferable outcome than perpetually being 7-10 or 8-9 with a low end but not horrid starter which is the real purgatory.
The Atheltic has another mock draft out, this one has the Pats standing pat and drafting... JJ McCarthy at #3.
https://theathletic.com/5361949/2024/03/25/nfl-mock-draft-quarterbacks-2024/
There’s no such thing as draft risers and fallers outside of a handful of injury, play-time or limited exposure scenarios. That sensation is public evaluators and media members catching up to the league’s scouting departments. This year’s prime example is McCarthy, who was deemed a mid-to-late first-round selection while leading Michigan to a national championship and a 27-1 record over the past two seasons.
While acknowledging the 21-year-old isn’t ready for Week 1 action, multiple league sources prefer his intangibles over other quarterbacks in this class. Soon we’ll see if the Patriots take the needed passer or help the overall roster. “Everyone thinks New England will take a quarterback, but they’ve got a bad roster,” one NFL scout said. “They have to get better talent across the offense. I think a team trades into the top five. There seems to be a lot more urgency with these teams needing quarterbacks this year.”
View: https://twitter.com/BenStandig/status/1771907536569938190?s=20
https://theathletic.com/5361949/2024/03/25/nfl-mock-draft-quarterbacks-2024/
There’s no such thing as draft risers and fallers outside of a handful of injury, play-time or limited exposure scenarios. That sensation is public evaluators and media members catching up to the league’s scouting departments. This year’s prime example is McCarthy, who was deemed a mid-to-late first-round selection while leading Michigan to a national championship and a 27-1 record over the past two seasons.
While acknowledging the 21-year-old isn’t ready for Week 1 action, multiple league sources prefer his intangibles over other quarterbacks in this class. Soon we’ll see if the Patriots take the needed passer or help the overall roster. “Everyone thinks New England will take a quarterback, but they’ve got a bad roster,” one NFL scout said. “They have to get better talent across the offense. I think a team trades into the top five. There seems to be a lot more urgency with these teams needing quarterbacks this year.”
View: https://twitter.com/BenStandig/status/1771907536569938190?s=20
I do think their overemphasis on "leadership, toughness" as attributes the Patriots are looking for in a QB could be a sign they like McCarthy more than we are projecting them to. I think JJ is an interesting prospect in terms of physical tools and he's more mechanically ready/sound with footwork than a guy like Maye with comparable arm talent, but he's a one speed thrower and that scares me. Everything is rifled in, every ball on a line, you have to layer throws at the NFL level, and I don't think that's easy to learn even though he's only 21.
Maybe it's me being irrational, but I'm starting to worry with all this speculation that the Pats are going to screw this up. They've got a golden chance to radically improve the team for the long term, and now I'm like...oh man, they're going to blow it, aren't they?
Assuming they draft a QB the most likely outcome is that he fails. The second most likely outcome is that he is an average QB. I think the idea that a QB selected at 3 is going to be transformational is wish casting. The offensive roster on this team sucks. If you put Justin Herbert on this team does that make them a playoff team? He has had a much better offensive cast his entire career than what NE will have next season and has started a total of 1 playoff games. Now of course the NE defense is much better but defense no longer wins championships. A competent D certainly helps but you need balance that leans towards offense to succeed.
If NE drafts the best possible player in rounds 1-5 then maybe they have an outside chance of being the next HOU but keep in mind HOU had Nico Collins already on the roster who just needed some health and a good QB and a franchise LT to protect said QB. Kendrick Bourne/Pop Douglas + swing tackles are no Nico Collins and Tunsil.
Nico Collins and his career high 480 receiving yards. Who knows what a guy like Pop Douglas could be with a CJ Stroud level QB throwing him the ball.
This is telling me you've never watched Nico Collins play football. If you had compared Tank Dell to Pop Douglas that would have been more apt. Comparing a 6'4" 215 lb X to Pop is comical.
I was obviously comparing them in terms of potential and production, not body types or play style, but being an asshole is free I guess.
Unless you think one season, where Brissett is likely to play a decent amount (unless the rookie shines early and often in camp which renders this whole argument moot), is going to ruin a rookie QB, then Wolf has 16 months or so to find better talent on offense. With an absurd amount of cap space and 2 drafts (most likely) of high picks (in each round)
If Wolf can’t build a competent - not great, but not “ruin a QB bad” - offense with those resources in the next year and a half or so, then it really doesn’t matter if they take the QB this year or next year or whenever because they’re screwed either way.
Jacoby takes his lumps this year and maybe next while the new guy learns, the way Aaron Rodgers and Jordan Love did in Green Bay for three and two years respectively. Meanwhile the offense builds up to support JJ. Big hope here.
If we pick a QB at #3 and he sits for 2 seasons it was the wrong choice. Jordan Love was the 26th pick.
Maye/Daniels will be starting the second half of this season unless the Brissett-led Patriots are 7-1.
I think it's a bit different.
If you draft a QB at #3, it's because your entire roster sucks. If he blows, chances are you're picking in the top #3 or so again next year (ie. picking Bryce Young last year and having the #1 this year that they had given up to Chicago).
If you draft a QB at #15, you've got a roster that is middle of the pack and is going to win some games regardless of the QB that you draft.
I'd rather take the shots at QB in the top 3-5, and if they suck, and we know the rest of the roster sucks, you take another stab at it until you get it right.
If you don't have a franchise QB, it's far, far better to go 2-15 instead of 7-9 or 8-8. If the Pats take MHJ at #3 and a tackle in the 2nd, and start Jacoby all year to go 8-8, then what? If the Pats take a godfather offer from another team, and fill all of these other holes except QB and go 9-7, then what?
None of it matters without a competent QB, if the idea is to win actual playoff games.
I agree, I was just trying to temper expectations for those folks that think this team is a QB away from relevancy. My point was more that even if we draft the next Herbert this team is still likely in a 2-3yr rebuild assuming they have an abnormally high hit rate on the rest of their picks. Whoever they draft at 3 is still throwing to largely journeyman WRs behind an average at best OL. The lack of draft investment on offense the last 4-5yrs is coming home to roost unfortunately. Even if they hit on every pick they are still in a talent deficit with the rest of the AFC East for starters.
Here's a hypothetical: if we knew for sure the Pats were going to be drafting Top 5 next year, what would you do with this pick? The QBs are not as good next year as a class. You can either draft the known QB now and supplement later, or supplement now and draft the less known QB later. To me, the choice is clear. Even with this hypothetical, I'd still pick the QB now.
This has become a widely accepted truth. The problem with considering it an absolute that must be adhered to is ... it's not as important factor as it's made out to be. I want the QB who turn out to be the best in the NFL, whether he's drafted first, 15th or 199th.
Trevor Lawrence was considered the surest of sure things. He got initially derailed under Meyer, but he still has issues with possession control and ball placement. The point is, making a premiere NFL quarterback depends on so many variables that depending on strength of a quarterback class as a primary factor when drafting gets too much attention.
I don’t really understand the point you’re trying to make here. The supply of good quarterback prospects is absolutely related to the likelihood of drafting a good quarterback prospect. And the vast majority of QB prospects who aren’t “good” prospects (1st round consideration types) end up terrible and/or unemployed NFL players.
Good prospects don’t necessarily translate to good players because the failure rate (at any position) is very high. But it’s very rare for a marginal prospect to become a good NFL QB. It’s very rare for even a decent QB prospect (mid round type) to ever become a good NFL QB
The more good QB prospects there are, the better chance you have of having one available to you when you draft. Any competent GM is absolutely considering future drafts and looking at the advance scouting reports for next year’s draft eligible players
It’s possible Phil Jurkovec, John Rhys Plumlee or Austin Reed end up better than Caleb Williams. It’s possible Brendan Sorsby leads Cincinnati to a national title and becomes the consensus “next great QB” and 1st overall pick next year. Any number of things are possible. But any good front office strategy involves looking at most likely outcomes and generally the consensus about who isn’t going to make it as an NFL QB is pretty accurate. Less so on which of the consensus “could make it” guys will actually pan out.
This 1000x. The Pats need a top QB. Nothing else matters until that happens.
Supremely timely article from Perry on the trade down topic. The punchline: if you trade out of the top 10, it's hard to find great WRs or OTs
View: https://twitter.com/PhilAPerry/status/1772348357286973937
View: https://twitter.com/PhilAPerry/status/1772348357286973937
Absolutely, one just needs to look around the league to see this:
In 2020, the Eagles drafted Hurts and basically benched him all year.
They went 4-11-1. In 2021, they went and got his buddy Davonta Smith at #10 overall and got Landon Dickerson at #34 overall. They got better, and finished at 9-8.
Then in 2022, they went out and traded for AJ Brown, filled out the rest of their team in free agency, etc. and went 13-3 and went to the Super Bowl.
In 2020, the Dolphins drafted Tua and he played split duties with Fitzy, they went 10-6...They also drafted Robert Hunt in the 2nd, and Austin Jackson at #18 overall (neither of which have been all pros or anything, but the OLine was shored up)
In 2021, Tua got his head beaten in, but they did go and draft Waddle at #6 and Liam Eichenberg at #34 (another offensive lineman). They went 9-8
In 2022, they went and got Tyreek. They had no picks in the 1st 2 rounds of the draft, but their skill position players and offensive line was set around their young QB. Again, Tua got hurt, but he was 8-5 in the games he started. Also McDaniels' first season.
In 2023, they got 11-6.
In 2019, the Bengals went 2-14.
In 2020, they drafted Burrow at #1, he got hurt, and they went 4-11-1. They also drafted Tee Higgins #33 overall.
In 2021, they went and drafted Chase at #5 overall. And they went 10-7 and made it to the Super Bowl.
In 2022, they went 12-4
There is a method to the madness here folks, but all of the methods that work require finding a QB. Period. The other options have you ending up where the Seahawks are, NFL purgatory. You find your QB, develop him and put talent around him.
If your QB blows, you just take another bite at the apple the next year or the year after, while you build the roster.
I think this is all noise. I'll give $50 to the Jimmy Fund if the top 3 are not Williams, Maye, Daniels in some order, and if the Patriots don't get one of those three if they keep the pick (obviously). I think this is all horseshit misinformation.
Feels like the McCarthy talk is the 2024 version of "the 9ers are going to take Mac Jones at 3" stuff.
Which they probably wish they had done.
I wouldn't discount it completely. I'd much rather take him that high than Mac.
I think there is a legit case for him over Daniels, not sure I would do it, but there is a pretty easy line to get there:
Much younger, less years in college, better build, much better arm, played in a pro offense and threw over the middle a lot more, was a significantly better prospect coming into the year, etc.
Stylistically very different players, so what you want could determine which you take.
I think McCarthy (and Maye) have less polarized outcomes as well. Daniels feels like a true boom or bust because so much of his ceiling relies on him being an elite runner and staying healthy. The concerns over his frame and whether or not his electric running will translate to the pros are legitimate issues to have with him. Maye and McCarthy have more potential paths to being “good not great” (healthy 49ers Garoppolo, KC version of Alex Smith etc) simply because less of their “happy paths” are so dependent on running. All 3 have things you can pick apart in terms of passing and all will fail if they don’t respond well to NFL coaching and improving certain throwing aspects of the game but Daniels is the only one with potential career limiting size/speed/durability concerns. And to be clear, I mean “speed concerns” as in “is he actually as fast as he looks on tape? We know he’s fast but is he able to be a great college runner because he’s playing college defenders or because he’s actually NFL level elite as a runner”
Jim Harbaugh ran the ball 40 times a game when he had Andrew Luck as his QB, too.
That was 12 years ago, though, and both the college and pro games have changed quite a bit since then.