What do you want Pats to do with #3?

What do you want the Pats to do with #3?

  • Trade multiple picks for #1 and take Williams

    Votes: 20 4.7%
  • Draft Jayden Daniels at #3

    Votes: 91 21.4%
  • Draft Drake Maye at #3

    Votes: 183 43.1%
  • Draft Marvin Harrison Jr. at #3

    Votes: 55 12.9%
  • Draft someone else not mentioned at #3 (please specify)

    Votes: 3 0.7%
  • Trade down and pick up more picks and take a WR (Nabers, Odunze, etc.)

    Votes: 9 2.1%
  • Trade down and pick up more picks and take an OL (Fashanu, Alt, etc.)

    Votes: 31 7.3%
  • Trade down and pick up more picks and take a QB (McCarthy, Penix, etc.)

    Votes: 33 7.8%

  • Total voters
    425

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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I think what they can't do is pick a guy and have him fail due to flaws that were perceived as strengths coming out, as they did with Mac. If they go Maye at 3 and he doesn't work out because he's inaccurate, drifts into pressure, is late with the ball, I'm fine with it, shit happens, you thought it was fixable or that the strengths would compensate for the flaws and they didn't. Mac being late with his progressions, having awful mechanics and pocket presence and not being a good leader is just a fatal flaw in the evaluation.
Mac also had, what, 1 year as a starter? And it was in front of no fans? (I could be wrong about that).

I dunno. I suspect Mac's lack of ability to work through adversity is something that literally never came up before he was drafted. He can't handle pressure at all, but he wasn't really under much pressure before the draft, right?
 

SMU_Sox

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Correct, his sample size of under pressure was like sub 10%. Laughable. His pressure to sack ratio was really good in college though but it was a SSS.
 

rodderick

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Mac also had, what, 1 year as a starter? And it was in front of no fans? (I could be wrong about that).

I dunno. I suspect Mac's lack of ability to work through adversity is something that literally never came up before he was drafted. He can't handle pressure at all, but he wasn't really under much pressure before the draft, right?
There were people that pointed out the footwork/fade away issues before the draft, @SMU_Sox being one of them, but generally Mac was seen as poised within the pocket, mature in terms of understanding and reading defenses, and I just think he wasn't really. The negatives focused on the physical aspect of his game, and while those flaws definitely showed up every Sunday, I think he failed for reasons that were generally perceived as strengths.
 

SMU_Sox

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BTW Pressure to sack ratio is pretty sticky going from college to the pros. Maye, JJM, Penix, and Nix are all good to go there. Caleb Williams has some struggles. Daniels is unfortunately quite poor there.
 

RG33

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Projecting QBs is so damn hard. With Maye we don't know so much that teams have access to. I mean all these guys teams get to ask questions about their play that we can only dream of asking.

For example, teams can ask Maye (and/or his coaches) about his NC State tape. "Drake, your first read is this crosser, right? [Drake nods] Well he's open here and you double clutch, why?" "Drake you seem to drift into this sack here. What are they teaching you footwork wise? You didn't do this in high school." (his high school tape he had cleaner footwork and delivery!)

With JJM you might ask him why he didn't choose to push the ball downfield when he had the opportunities to. Was it because his Harbaugh told him to just manage the games because Michigan was going to run the ball down other team's throats?

With Jayden Daniels, did he scramble and was he so impatient in the pocket because he was trying to play hero ball? Was he instructed to do a 1 read and run? Can he play with more patience in the pocket? Can he learn to slide and/or avoid hits as a runner more?

We can do one for Caleb but what's the point he's gone at 1,1. With Penix teams have access to his medicals and we don't and those are huge for him. And with Bo Nix, I think he is more or less a finished product and that product is a high end backup QB who can spot start. I don't know what I would ask Nix.

You'd be surprised how honest these guys can be in Q&As with teams. Daniels might tell them that he is a run finisher and he likes to plow into people. He might even let them know that BK told him to just go into scramble mode and take the easy 15 yards vs hang in the pocket. BK might confirm that and tell the NFL team who asked, "Yeah I told him to run - our defense stunk last year and we needed to just stay on schedule and pick up first downs, extend drives, etc." None of this will come out to the public though. Some of these answers can help an NFL team know how projectable growth is at the next level. It doesn't excuse bad tape but it can give teams an idea if something is perhaps easier to change than at first glance. You're still talking low odds because we're talking QBs. And even with answers it doesn't solve the question of how projectable growth is but it helps.
This was a great post - very insightful, thanks.
 

rodderick

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BTW Pressure to sack ratio is pretty sticky going from college to the pros. Maye, JJM, Penix, and Nix are all good to go there. Caleb Williams has some struggles. Daniels is unfortunately quite poor there.
Isn't Maye's reasonably high as well? Penix is exceptional in that department, though.
 

Auger34

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Yup. Bet on the traits and see how it goes. I'm bullish because I think his footwork is the main issue driving the lack of accuracy, but I do worry they'll have to make some upper body adjustments so his delivery gets tighter and the ball isn't as late as it tends to be. Either way, Maye is the prototype, trust your staff to develop him.
Agreed. McAdoo and AVP have very good reputations when it comes to developing QBs as well.
 

SMU_Sox

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Isn't Maye's reasonably high as well? Penix is exceptional in that department, though.
Maye is below 20%, 19.2% and 19.5% in 2022 and 2023. He is at the higher end of the acceptable range. JJM is around 16.5% which is fine.

Daniels was 31.1% in 2022 to give you an example.
 

Auger34

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Maye is below 20%, 19.2% and 19.5% in 2022 and 2023. He is at the higher end of the acceptable range. JJM is around 16.5% which is fine.

Daniels was 31.1% in 2022 to give you an example.
If you were Eliot Wolf and the draft goes Caleb then Maye....are you for sure trading down? And would the Vikings and Broncos be too far to trade down as you would lose out on all of MHJ, Odunze, and Joe Alt?
 

rodderick

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Maye is below 20%, 19.2% and 19.5% in 2022 and 2023. He is at the higher end of the acceptable range. JJM is around 16.5% which is fine.

Daniels was 31.1% in 2022 to give you an example.
Yeah, Daniels' range is basically a who's who of failed NFL QBs, but anything below the 20% threshold is acceptable with a pretty varied range of outcomes.
 

SMU_Sox

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If you were Eliot Wolf and the draft goes Caleb then Maye....are you for sure trading down? And would the Vikings and Broncos be too far to trade down as you would lose out on all of MHJ, Odunze, and Joe Alt?
It depends on how much they give me. I might trade down and then use some of those assets to trade back up to make sure I get Odunze. I don't love the top tier of the OT class this year. Lots of B+ maybe A- kind of guys which is fine but when you are looking at potential all-pro level WRs it is tough to pass that up. They need both and finding a LT is harder but this is a multi-year rebuild. There isn't a right answer here either. If you think scarcity of LT means getting a potential very good one this year that makes sense to me too.

Yeah, Daniels' range is basically a who's who of failed NFL QBs, but anything below the 20% threshold is acceptable with a pretty varied range of outcomes.
One of those necessary but not sufficient conditions with exceptions like Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson. Two kind of HUGE exceptions :). Sumer sports pod covered it well. Great pod. Highly recommend. Their analytics are top notch too. I enjoy the hell out of their content.

Edit: quickly, I do love the OT class this year, but until I finish the top of the class I am not sure how much I see them as top 10 potentials or more of mid to late firsts. I saw Olu and Alt as 7.99s on my scale this summer. So the top 3 WRs are all 2 tiers higher.
 

Justthetippett

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Yeah, Daniels' range is basically a who's who of failed NFL QBs, but anything below the 20% threshold is acceptable with a pretty varied range of outcomes.
Someone keep this info from Adam Peters.

I just looked up Burrow and it seems he was pretty high coming out of college (22.2%). A lot of the mobile guys were too (Lamar at 20.4%, Fields 23.6%, Mariota 20%).

I can't find Mac's in the pros in 2022 and 2023 but it must be very high.
 

Zososoxfan

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I agree with this. The argument above for McCarthy sounds like “he has more potential because we haven’t seen his weaknesses yet!” But that’s just because we haven’t seen JJ out of his comfort zone. He didn’t have to play hero ball like Maye because his team was better… he was basically irrelevant to their national title, throwing 8-10 passes in their most important games.

I’d rather draft someone like Maye, whose weaknesses I know and can theoretically help him with, than a mystery box like McCarthy who will surprise me with undiscovered weaknesses.

I’m also biased because I think McCarthy is corny and I’m guessing that his NFL teammates will think that as well.
The bolded is mostly false. "Their most important games" is subjective, but let's look at MSU, the home stretch, and the playoffs:

@MSU - 21/27, 287 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs

@PSU - 7/8, 60 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, 8 rushes for 34 yards

@Maryland - 12/23, 141 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT

OSU - 16/20, 148 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 4 rushes for 17 yards

Iowa (BTCG) - 22/30, 147 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT

Bama (Rose Bowl) - 17/27, 221 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 3 rushes for 25 yards

Wash (NCG) - 10/18, 0 TD, 0 INT, 4 rushes for 31 yards

Season Stats - 240/332 (72.3%), 2991 yards, 22 TD, 4 INT, 64 rushes for 202 yards, 3 TD

My takeaway from that is Harbaugh and staff wanted to throw 20-30 games and protect the football. Looking at those important game stats, one thing that jumps out is that he only had 1 INT (Maryland) to 8 TDs. He also has a pretty good completion percentage in all of those games (save Maryland). As we've discussed ad nauseam, it seems foolish to dock JJ for the coaches not wanting to throw the ball more, while at the same time JJ does have paltry stats with several sub 200 yard games in there.

To get a bit more granular:

MSU was admittedly a horribad team, but I think you'd include an in-state rivalry game away as an important game. This was also the first game after the Stalions shenanigans got reported. JJ tore them apart when the run game was unproductive.

PSU - I think people need to go watch this game. Manny Diaz and James Franklin got outcoached in this one, and never adjusted to Michigan forcing them to defend the run first. Michigan rushed over 5 yards per carry on 40+ rushes. I mean, it's not a good look for JJ, but I think context matters.

@Maryland was a bad game for the Michigan team, and JJ was banged up in this one. Classic trap game between @PSU and OSU. Michigan wasn't running the ball particularly well in this game either, and the defense carried the team. Put this one in the bad column, sure.

The OSU game is probably one of the 3 most important games to look at, along with the playoff games. Not a great statline, but whereas JJ had a TD and no INTs, McCord was 18/30 for 271 yards, 2 TDs, and 2 INTs. The TD to Roman Wilson is a Rorschach test whether you believe JJ that he had noticed something on film that ended up being brilliant, or a lucky throw that'll get intercepted on Sundays.

Bama represents the best case scenario for JJ. Protected the football, good completion percentage, good yardage per attempt, 3 TDs, and rushing/scrambling ability to boot.

Washington was a weird game from him, as Michigan broke 2 long runs early in the game before the offense stalled out and Washington got back into it. When the game was on the line though, McCarthy had 2 HUGE rushes on back to back plays to set Michigan up for the win.


I don't think he would be a top 2 pick because JJ McCarthy has issues with accuracy on outside throws from a clean pocket. He sails balls. He also doesn't have deep accuracy from what I can tell but I saw maybe 4 shots total there. 0-4 but very small sample size. He can throw on the move and avoid sacks which is a plus but he doesn't excel from the pocket.

He was a tough eval.

Ultimately I had two main issues with him and a third which is minor. 1) Accuracy, 2) Decision making, and 3) there were games where he bailed early.

Mac was captain intangibles. Everyone said he was this great leader, hard worker, blah blah blah. The intangibles are always overblown this time of year. Granted I buy-in for JJ McCarthy.

View attachment 80387View attachment 80387

This is Waldman's take which sums him up well to me. If he can fix his accuracy (in structure and with a clean pocket) and improve his decision making he has the traits to be a higher end QB. If he doesn't he might be out of the league soon. He's young so he has that going for him but fixing in structure accuracy with a clean pocket when your release and mechanics are good is hard to do. If it isn't a mechanical issue what is causing him to sail balls or miss his spots outside so much?

You could probably surround JJM with an elite cast in a Shanny/Kubiak style offense and he would produce for you. But can he elevate the guys around him? Will he maximize the opportunities he has in that system or will there be throws he can't make?
Question for you SMU, what's the assessment of JJ on off platform throws? It seems like he did it a fair amount last season and he's pretty good at it, although the near-interception on the first play against Bama nearly killed me.
 

rodderick

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Someone keep this info from Adam Peters.

I just looked up Burrow and it seems he was pretty high coming out of college (22.2%). A lot of the mobile guys were too (Lamar at 20.4%, Fields 23.6%, Mariota 20%).

I can't find Mac's in the pros in 2022 and 2023 but it must be very high.
I don't think Fields and Mariota give me much hope for the outcome either. Lamar was right at the threshold, Burrow is one of the sole outliers and even his rate was lower. Daniels' pressure to sack rate on third down was 30.2% as well, which scares me half to death (Maye's was 19.8%).

Then I see his clean pocket scramble rate is also super high and I'm bordering on "no thanks". Don't think the physical tools are enough there to live with that profile of player. But I admit I've changed on this, liked him way more. Don't think the arm is anything to write home about, don't love the reliance on fades against single coverage with terrific receivers. Accurate, throws a beautiful deep ball, much cleaner in terms of footwork than the other guys in his range, don't think he feels the game well enough.
 
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tims4wins

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A nitpick on the Bama game: he made a horrific decision on the first drive and got bailed out that the DBs foot was out.
 

Nick Kaufman

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Projecting QBs is so damn hard. With Maye we don't know so much that teams have access to. I mean all these guys teams get to ask questions about their play that we can only dream of asking.

For example, teams can ask Maye (and/or his coaches) about his NC State tape. "Drake, your first read is this crosser, right? [Drake nods] Well he's open here and you double clutch, why?" "Drake you seem to drift into this sack here. What are they teaching you footwork wise? You didn't do this in high school." (his high school tape he had cleaner footwork and delivery!)

With JJM you might ask him why he didn't choose to push the ball downfield when he had the opportunities to. Was it because his Harbaugh told him to just manage the games because Michigan was going to run the ball down other team's throats?

With Jayden Daniels, did he scramble and was he so impatient in the pocket because he was trying to play hero ball? Was he instructed to do a 1 read and run? Can he play with more patience in the pocket? Can he learn to slide and/or avoid hits as a runner more?

We can do one for Caleb but what's the point he's gone at 1,1. With Penix teams have access to his medicals and we don't and those are huge for him. And with Bo Nix, I think he is more or less a finished product and that product is a high end backup QB who can spot start. I don't know what I would ask Nix.

You'd be surprised how honest these guys can be in Q&As with teams. Daniels might tell them that he is a run finisher and he likes to plow into people. He might even let them know that BK told him to just go into scramble mode and take the easy 15 yards vs hang in the pocket. BK might confirm that and tell the NFL team who asked, "Yeah I told him to run - our defense stunk last year and we needed to just stay on schedule and pick up first downs, extend drives, etc." None of this will come out to the public though. Some of these answers can help an NFL team know how projectable growth is at the next level. It doesn't excuse bad tape but it can give teams an idea if something is perhaps easier to change than at first glance. You're still talking low odds because we're talking QBs. And even with answers it doesn't solve the question of how projectable growth is but it helps.
I have an article about Daryl Morley in my notes talking about his experience from trying to evaluate young talent for the draft. The gist of it is that it's extremely hard, that the people doing the evaluations can be biased, while there are very few objective standards to use. It also talks about how those interviews can be very misleading. Granted, it's somewhat different situation, because it's about less known players in another sport, but still.

Then there was Sean Williams. Back in 2007, Sean Williams, 6-foot-10, was an off-the-charts player who had been suspended from his Boston College team the first two of his three seasons after being arrested for possession of marijuana (a charge that was later dropped). He’d played only 15 games his sophomore year and still blocked 75 shots; the fans referred to his college games as The Sean Williams Block Party. Sean Williams looked like a big-time NBA player and was expected to be a first-round pick—in part because everyone assumed that his ability to get through his junior year without being suspended meant that he’d gotten his marijuana use under control. Before the 2007 NBA draft, he’d flown to Houston, at his agent’s request, to practice his interviewing skills. The agent cut the Rockets a deal: Williams would talk to the Rockets and the Rockets alone, and the Rockets would offer the agent tips about how to make Sean Williams more persuasive in a job interview. It actually went pretty well, until they got onto the topic of marijuana. “So you got caught smoking weed your freshman and sophomore years,” said the Rockets interviewer. “What happened your junior year?” Williams just shook his head and said, “They stopped testing me. And if you’re not going to test me, I’m gonna smoke!”

After that, Williams’s agent decided it was best for Sean Williams not to grant any more interviews. He still got himself drafted in the first round by the New Jersey Nets, and made brief appearances in 137 NBA games before leaving to play in Turkey.
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Millions of dollars were at stake—NBA players were, on average, by far the highest-paid athletes in all of team sports. The future success of the Houston Rockets was on the line. These young people were hurling information about themselves at you that was meant to help you to make an employment decision. But a lot of times it was hard to know what to do with it.

Rockets interviewer: What do you know about the Houston Rockets?

Player: I know you are in Houston.

Rockets interviewer: Which foot did you hurt?

Player: I have been telling people my right foot.

Player: Coach and I did not see eye to eye.

Rockets interviewer: On what?

Rockets interviewer: What else?

Ten years of grilling extremely tall people had reinforced in Daryl Morey, the general manager of the Houston Rockets, the sense that he should resist the power of any face-to-face interaction with some other person to influence his judgment. Job interviews were magic shows. He needed to fight whatever he felt during them—especially if he and everyone else in the room felt charmed. Extremely tall people had an unusual capacity to charm. “There’s a lot of charming bigs,” said Morey. “I don’t know if it’s like the fat kid on the playground or what.” The trouble wasn’t the charm but what the charm might mask: addictions, personality disorders, injuries, a deep disinterest in hard work. The bigs could bring you to tears with their story about their love of the game and the hardship they had overcome to play it. “They all have a story,” said Morey. “I could tell you a story about every guy.” And when the story was about perseverance in the face of incredible adversity, as it often was, it was hard not to grow attached to it. It was hard not to use it to create in your mind a clear picture of future NBA success.

But Daryl Morey believed—if he believed in anything—in taking a statistically based approach to decision making. And the most important decision he made was whom to allow onto his basketball team. “Your mind needs to be in a constant state of defense against all this crap that is trying to mislead you,” he said. “We’re always trying to figure out what’s a trick and what’s real. Are we seeing a hologram? Is this an illusion?” These interviews belonged on the list of the crap trying to mislead you. “Here’s the biggest reason I want to be in every interview,” said Morey. “If we pick him, and he has some horrible problem and the owner asks, ‘What did he say in the interview when you asked him that question?’ and I go, ‘I never actually spoke to him before we gave him 1.5 million dollars,’ I get fired.”

http://www.slate.com/articles/arts/books/2016/12/how_daryl_morey_used_behavioral_economics_to_revolutionize_the_art_of_nba.html?wpsrc=sh_all_dt_tw_ru
 

ShaneTrot

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I want to like him but I am just not sold on Daniels. The age, his 'puny' weight, the lack of throwing over the middle, the hit-taking (though I admire his toughness), the throwing to all world WRs (not his fault), and the sack rate as mentioned above trouble me. But trading with MN blows. This team needs blue-chip offensive talent, if they trade back I want them to be able to still draft a premium player like Alt.
 

ManicCompression

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The bolded is mostly false. "Their most important games" is subjective, but let's look at MSU, the home stretch, and the playoffs:

@MSU - 21/27, 287 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs

@PSU - 7/8, 60 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, 8 rushes for 34 yards

@Maryland - 12/23, 141 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT

OSU - 16/20, 148 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 4 rushes for 17 yards

Iowa (BTCG) - 22/30, 147 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT

Bama (Rose Bowl) - 17/27, 221 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 3 rushes for 25 yards

Wash (NCG) - 10/18, 0 TD, 0 INT, 4 rushes for 31 yards

Season Stats - 240/332 (72.3%), 2991 yards, 22 TD, 4 INT, 64 rushes for 202 yards, 3 TD

My takeaway from that is Harbaugh and staff wanted to throw 20-30 games and protect the football. Looking at those important game stats, one thing that jumps out is that he only had 1 INT (Maryland) to 8 TDs. He also has a pretty good completion percentage in all of those games (save Maryland). As we've discussed ad nauseam, it seems foolish to dock JJ for the coaches not wanting to throw the ball more, while at the same time JJ does have paltry stats with several sub 200 yard games in there.

To get a bit more granular:

MSU was admittedly a horribad team, but I think you'd include an in-state rivalry game away as an important game. This was also the first game after the Stalions shenanigans got reported. JJ tore them apart when the run game was unproductive.

PSU - I think people need to go watch this game. Manny Diaz and James Franklin got outcoached in this one, and never adjusted to Michigan forcing them to defend the run first. Michigan rushed over 5 yards per carry on 40+ rushes. I mean, it's not a good look for JJ, but I think context matters.

@Maryland was a bad game for the Michigan team, and JJ was banged up in this one. Classic trap game between @PSU and OSU. Michigan wasn't running the ball particularly well in this game either, and the defense carried the team. Put this one in the bad column, sure.

The OSU game is probably one of the 3 most important games to look at, along with the playoff games. Not a great statline, but whereas JJ had a TD and no INTs, McCord was 18/30 for 271 yards, 2 TDs, and 2 INTs. The TD to Roman Wilson is a Rorschach test whether you believe JJ that he had noticed something on film that ended up being brilliant, or a lucky throw that'll get intercepted on Sundays.

Bama represents the best case scenario for JJ. Protected the football, good completion percentage, good yardage per attempt, 3 TDs, and rushing/scrambling ability to boot.

Washington was a weird game from him, as Michigan broke 2 long runs early in the game before the offense stalled out and Washington got back into it. When the game was on the line though, McCarthy had 2 HUGE rushes on back to back plays to set Michigan up for the win.




Question for you SMU, what's the assessment of JJ on off platform throws? It seems like he did it a fair amount last season and he's pretty good at it, although the near-interception on the first play against Bama nearly killed me.
You’re arguing one thing and I’m arguing another. I don’t care why he wasn’t throwing the football much in certain games. My point is that he’s judged on a different playing field than other QBs because he wasn’t tested in the same way. How does he respond when the defense has their ears pinned back and they’re putting pressure on him over and over again? Because that will be his life in the pros, not protecting a lead with a great running game, great D, and an OL that outmatches every opponent they face.
 

Average Reds

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The rose bowl was a notable and recent exception as was the game at Ohio state last year (when he was just 19). Made huge plays in those games, and the rose bowl was a comeback that included a 4th down conversion through the air

Everyone seems to think the Penn state game was the norm
People also aren’t taking into account that he injured his right leg at the end of the first half at Penn State. That injury was severe enough that he only attempted one pass in the second half (which doesn’t show up in the stats because it generated an interference call) and had difficulty planting for the rest of the regular season, which had a huge impact on his accuracy for the rest of the season.

I get that he’s polarizing because he’s the only top QB who didn’t play in a wide open offense, but the nonsense I’m seeing about being a game manager or having a weak arm is silly.

Edit: That doesn’t mean he won’t be a bust. As SMU said, this shit is hard and I have no idea who will thrive in the NFl and who won’t. But if McCarthy is a bust, it’s not going to be arm strength or deep ball accuracy that does him in. (IMO, of course.)
 
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Was (Not Wasdin)

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BTW Pressure to sack ratio is pretty sticky going from college to the pros. Maye, JJM, Penix, and Nix are all good to go there. Caleb Williams has some struggles. Daniels is unfortunately quite poor there.
The PFF guys are all over this and are really REALLY down on Daniels as a result.
 

Auger34

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I am pretty in the middle on McCarthy (I think he would be an absolutely horrible pick and fit in New England but I think he has a good amount of talent).

I know that there's a lot of context as to why, and the team was winning so it made sense, but college QBs normally air the ball out if they are anything close to a 1st round talent now.

It's natural to have skepticism about JJ because he was basically a "game manager". It also makes him kind of a great unknown in the sense that you can dream on him being more because nothing has been put on film to dispute it.

IMO, I think he would be a very good fit in Minnesota and with Sean Payton. I really don't like his fit in NE or NYG (where it would be a huge step up from college and he would have much more on his shoulders)
 

SMU_Sox

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Question for you SMU, what's the assessment of JJ on off platform throws? It seems like he did it a fair amount last season and he's pretty good at it, although the near-interception on the first play against Bama nearly killed me.
Off-platform in-pocket is something he doesn't do a whole lot of so I can't really speak to it. Off-platform out of pocket he's actually got pretty good accuracy to the short and intermediate areas of the field in front of him. In that Bama game, for example, he has some touch passes off-platform while moving that were nice. His mobile accuracy is one of the better areas of his game as long as the targets aren't too far out. He won't be able to do a Maye or Herbert or Allen kind of throw it on a strike 45 yards downfield while moving and his decision making and vision isn't always great off-platform but he can certainly make many of those throws, just not the S-tier ones.
 

tims4wins

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Off-platform in-pocket is something he doesn't do a whole lot of so I can't really speak to it. Off-platform out of pocket he's actually got pretty good accuracy to the short and intermediate areas of the field in front of him. In that Bama game, for example, he has some touch passes off-platform while moving that were nice. His mobile accuracy is one of the better areas of his game as long as the targets aren't too far out. He won't be able to do a Maye or Herbert or Allen kind of throw it on a strike 45 yards downfield while moving and his decision making and vision isn't always great off-platform but he can certainly make many of those throws, just not the S-tier ones.
Does this count as off-platform and out of the pocket? Man this play just sticks in my head (and I'm a Michigan / JJ fan!). You can't do this on the first PLAY of the CFP semifinal. Just horrific.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jNXkW-YB1V0
 

SMU_Sox

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Yeah, that is off-platform and mobile and yes it was a fuck-awful decision. There were multiple opportunities to make a positive there. To be fair that was probably the worst play I saw from him and he had a much better rest of game.
 

tims4wins

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SMU_Sox

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Bell rounds his route there and drifts up. It isn't a great location and JJM has trouble making throws outside the numbers. I would have to look at it in more detail but that was definitely a shit route by Bell. You can't run an out breaker and drift upfield - you just let the DB undercut it. The second one is something you see more often with his decision making - where he doesn't always see the field cleanly. He's good when the decision is in front of him and obvious. Like say a crosser and a flat route high-lowing an ILB? He will read that out perfectly. But he doesn't always have the best command of when guys can cut it off from underneath.

Most of his progressions are on easy-mode too and more often than not he is playing from ahead. I would put to his second half against Bama as where he came up big in the spotlight when more of the game was in his hands.

The TCU game was his first year starting. I would cut him a little slack. Not too much but some!
 

SMU_Sox

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The tricky thing with processing is it is by far the hardest thing to improve on, most prospects come out with average at best processing, but all the best guys improve while most guys don't improve much.

Defenses change a lot in the NFL too. You play guys like Fangio and BB (RIP) who like to disguise coverages and spin the dial on you. In college you certainly see that but not as much.

Look at Justin Fields, for example. He was young but a slower processor. I liked him because I thought if he can just increase his processing speed/ability he could be elite. He never did.
 

Zososoxfan

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Off-platform in-pocket is something he doesn't do a whole lot of so I can't really speak to it. Off-platform out of pocket he's actually got pretty good accuracy to the short and intermediate areas of the field in front of him. In that Bama game, for example, he has some touch passes off-platform while moving that were nice. His mobile accuracy is one of the better areas of his game as long as the targets aren't too far out. He won't be able to do a Maye or Herbert or Allen kind of throw it on a strike 45 yards downfield while moving and his decision making and vision isn't always great off-platform but he can certainly make many of those throws, just not the S-tier ones.
Appreciate the response as always! I should've clarified I meant on the move, and not so much in the pocket.

But I think this touches on an area that I hadn't considered much until recently. Maybe JJ's game in the NFL involves designed throws on the move? I'd imagine this simplifies reads a bit, can mitigate against a bad OL, and might also mitigate against some defensive schemes. JJ has some real running and scramble ability, but perhaps he has the skills to be good enough on roll outs to keep defenses honest and improve performance in the pocket? Or is that just too much playbook for a young QB trying to make it in the league early on?

Are there stats out there that show how many throws were on designed rollouts? Again, I hadn't thought about this before, but for a wildly aspirational comp, how about Drew Brees?

Brees was slinging it around for Purdue in the late 90s when I'd guess throwing 45x/game wasn't exactly common, but I mean the comp from a skillset perspective. I'm sure there are other QBs since Brees that match JJ's build and skillset better, but I don't know who they are.

His pick sixes (multiple) against TCU the year before weren't exactly great decisions either (both throws from the pocket).

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KRRaFi5fPHE


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eyFnGffODjo
I think this goes back to my earlier post--JJ drastically cut down on INTs in big games from 2022 to 2023, even though he basically had identical TD/INT ratios on the same amount of attempts. Also, what SMU said in response re the route and JJ being a true Sophomore and first year starter.
 

SMU_Sox

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@Zososoxfan JJ is a natural fit for a Shanny/Kubiak style system with a ton of bootlegs and rollouts. He does that well. Like Jimmy G though he is usually not going to push the ball downfield as much as you'd like. Again, not sure how much that is Harbaugh telling him not to vs he doesn't want to do it. You can work with that though. Part of the issue with that though is you have to have some traditional dropbacks. That and it's hard to win doing what Shanahan is doing without an elite surrounding cast. I think Shanahan went with Trey Lance though because he wanted someone who could execute out of structure too and take more shots downfield when it was an option. In a way JJM is both a good fit and someone who Shanahan might want to upgrade on.
 

MikeM

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Could the Pats be picking #1 overall next year? Not likely, but sure. They could have their pick of the litter and then have all of their draft assets from trading out of #3 this year. But they could also win 6, 7, 8 games with Brissett at QB and be looking at a mid 1st next year, missing out on the few guys who are at the top of the rankings (i.e. next year's Caleb, Maye, Daniels, McCarthy).
FWIW Vegas and all the major sporting books are leaning heavily in favor of that former. Having you tied with Carolina at a league worst 4.5 win line for the year, and with only one other team (Denver) league wide within 2 wins of that. While also having the other 3 AFC East teams at 9.5+ wins each.

They, like pretty much everybody else outside the team's own optimistic echo chamber i've seen weighing in, seem to think it is indeed a lot more likely then not that you will be in prime contention for next year's #1 overall pick. With it also being that, and not the potential opportunity value on the trade table mind you, that appears to be driving much of this speculation that keeps circling back to the Pats trading out. Speculation that certainly isn't shying away from any direct acknowledgement on things like having such a high probability projection chance of being one of the worst teams in football next year. Or with the fact that if you were to hypothetically try to script out a worst possibile surrounding setup to draft a young QB into, while hoping to avoid typical bad team failures...what comes out the other end probably looks a lot like the bad team New England Patriots with all it's surrounding question marks and concerns do now.

It would be interesting to see how many of those same people beating the "YOU GO FOR IT. FRANCHISE QB OR BUST!" drum so loudly last winter to justify Carolina drafting Bryce into a similar high probability to fail situation are still holding the logic line there today. Especially AFTER he (and pretty much every other QB for that matter), who in essence is still more or less the same QB talent now that he was then, start losing a lot of that hype machine driven value the moment it gets driven off the lot.

Would trading Bryce Young today net you a pick high enough to take that JJ flyer this year? Does it get you Penix or Nix? :)
 
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Cellar-Door

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FWIW Vegas and all the major sporting books are leaning heavily in favor of that former. Having you tied with Carolina at a league worst 4.5 win line for the year, and with only one other team (Denver) league wide within 2 wins of that. While also having the other 3 AFC East teams at 9.5+ wins each.

They, like pretty much everybody else outside the team's own optimistic echo chamber i've seen weighing in, seem to think it is indeed a lot more likely then not that you will be in prime contention for next year's #1 overall pick. With it also being that, and not the potential opportunity value on the trade table mind you, that appears to be driving much of this speculation that keeps circling back to the Pats trading out. Speculation that certainly isn't shying away from any direct acknowledgement on things like having such a high probability projection chance of being one of the worst teams in football next year. Or with the fact that if you were to hypothetically try to script out a worst possibile surrounding setup to draft a young QB into, while hoping to avoid typical bad team failures...what comes out the other end probably looks a lot like the bad team New England Patriots with all it's surrounding question marks and concerns do now.

It would be interesting to see how many of those same people beating the "YOU GO FOR IT. FRANCHISE QB OR BUST!" drum so loudly last winter to justify Carolina drafting Bryce into a similar high probability to fail situation are still holding the logic line there today. Especially AFTER he (and pretty much every other QB for that matter), who in essence is still more or less the same QB talent now that he was then, start losing a lot of that hype machine driven value the moment it gets driven off the lot.

Would trading Bryce Young today net you a pick high enough to take that JJ flyer this year? Does it get you Penix or Nix? :)
last year the 7 teams with the worst wins O/U includes only 2 teams that are picking in the top 10 this year.

The Patriots are a pretty bad team... but that doesn't mean much in terms of predicability of a high enough draft pick next year.... health at O-line and QB (or a rookie QB) is usually a far bigger indicator.

As to the trade scenario.. sure, if a QB comes in and struggles badly he has less trade value especially with a year less on his rookie deal. On the other hand, HOU was not seen as all that good a situation last year ( tied for 2nd lowest pre-season Wins O/U) and Stroud would no doubt get you no lower than the #2 pick in a trade (probably far more). Trevor Lawrence struggled badly his rookie year... he could easily have fetched an early first in 2022. Trade value after a year has far more to do with what the player shows and how big a prospect he was previously than anything to do with a universal drop in value.
 

tims4wins

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It’s really hard to earn a top 3 pick. All of last year we were freaking out that each win would cost us the chance - the Buffalo and Denver wins especially come to mind. We all breathed a collective sigh of relief at the Colts and Giants losses. Hell we were all 100% paranoid that we’d beat the Jets in week 18 and cost ourselves multiple draft slots.

I would be more stunned if the Pats pick top 3 in 2025 than I am that they are picking top 3 this year.
 

Cellar-Door

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It’s really hard to earn a top 3 pick. All of last year we were freaking out that each win would cost us the chance - the Buffalo and Denver wins especially come to mind. We all breathed a collective sigh of relief at the Colts and Giants losses. Hell we were all 100% paranoid that we’d beat the Jets in week 18 and cost ourselves multiple draft slots.

I would be more stunned if the Pats pick top 3 in 2025 than I am that they are picking top 3 this year.
Also worth noting, in a year where we got terrible QB play, our 2 most important defensive players got hurt, and we had our projected offensive line healthy for zero games.... still took some bad kicking and a lot of luck to not win out of the top 3. Every year there are teams that have those kind of key injury disaster years, and they often pass by the "bad talent on offense" teams. Just looking at it, any of these teams with the wrong injuries are #1 pick contenders... SEA, NO, LV, WAS, NYG, CAR, DEN, TEN, ARI, MIN, TB, JAX... those are all the same kind of middling teams people expected the Patriots to be last year... Lawrence goes down? Kyler? LV has line issues?, etc. etc. League is loaded with teams that are 7-8 wins if healthy, 3-5 wins if injured.
 

tims4wins

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Also worth noting, in a year where we got terrible QB play, our 2 most important defensive players got hurt, and we had our projected offensive line healthy for zero games.... still took some bad kicking and a lot of luck to not win out of the top 3. Every year there are teams that have those kind of key injury disaster years, and they often pass by the "bad talent on offense" teams. Just looking at it, any of these teams with the wrong injuries are #1 pick contenders... SEA, NO, LV, WAS, NYG, CAR, DEN, TEN, ARI, MIN, TB, JAX... those are all the same kind of middling teams people expected the Patriots to be last year... Lawrence goes down? Kyler? LV has line issues?, etc. etc. League is loaded with teams that are 7-8 wins if healthy, 3-5 wins if injured.
Great points.
 

Justthetippett

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@Zososoxfan JJ is a natural fit for a Shanny/Kubiak style system with a ton of bootlegs and rollouts. He does that well. Like Jimmy G though he is usually not going to push the ball downfield as much as you'd like. Again, not sure how much that is Harbaugh telling him not to vs he doesn't want to do it. You can work with that though. Part of the issue with that though is you have to have some traditional dropbacks. That and it's hard to win doing what Shanahan is doing without an elite surrounding cast. I think Shanahan went with Trey Lance though because he wanted someone who could execute out of structure too and take more shots downfield when it was an option. In a way JJM is both a good fit and someone who Shanahan might want to upgrade on.
Does this make JJ the likely target for Minnesota given where O'Connell apprenticed?

Shanahan made it work with Ryan, Jimmy G, Purdy... probably would have got something out of Mac. The guy is kind of singular.
 

Justthetippett

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Also worth noting, in a year where we got terrible QB play, our 2 most important defensive players got hurt, and we had our projected offensive line healthy for zero games.... still took some bad kicking and a lot of luck to not win out of the top 3. Every year there are teams that have those kind of key injury disaster years, and they often pass by the "bad talent on offense" teams. Just looking at it, any of these teams with the wrong injuries are #1 pick contenders... SEA, NO, LV, WAS, NYG, CAR, DEN, TEN, ARI, MIN, TB, JAX... those are all the same kind of middling teams people expected the Patriots to be last year... Lawrence goes down? Kyler? LV has line issues?, etc. etc. League is loaded with teams that are 7-8 wins if healthy, 3-5 wins if injured.
True, but we also still had a really good HC (it's hard to point to out any really poor gameplans) and this year is much more of an unknown. We could very well see more of the NO and Dallas type games.
 

Cellar-Door

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True, but we also still had a really good HC (it's hard to point to out any really poor gameplans) and this year is much more of an unknown. We could very well see more of the NO and Dallas type games.
I mean, I think the Patriots are going to be bad this year, just pointing out you can't just assume they'll be one of the 3-4 worst teams in the league.
 

MikeM

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last year the 7 teams with the worst wins O/U includes only 2 teams that are picking in the top 10 this year.

The Patriots are a pretty bad team... but that doesn't mean much in terms of predicability of a high enough draft pick next year.... health at O-line and QB (or a rookie QB) is usually a far bigger indicator.

As to the trade scenario.. sure, if a QB comes in and struggles badly he has less trade value especially with a year less on his rookie deal. On the other hand, HOU was not seen as all that good a situation last year ( tied for 2nd lowest pre-season Wins O/U) and Stroud would no doubt get you no lower than the #2 pick in a trade (probably far more). Trevor Lawrence struggled badly his rookie year... he could easily have fetched an early first in 2022. Trade value after a year has far more to do with what the player shows and how big a prospect he was previously than anything to do with a universal drop in value.
Every one of those teams, including Houston (nobody is confusing your AVP hire for taking a stab at trying to uncover the next promising young offensive genius), had a lot more going for them in one form or another then the 2024 Pats project out to have imo. You also aren't getting this year's draft stock version of Trevor Lawrence.

Are you really good with an outcome this year that sees the Pats have the same season the Carolina Panthers did last year, and that sees either Maye/Daniels put up a similar type of season that Bryce did? Because being good with it isn't the same thing as just saying your are while playing out the full range role of Matt Damon in the "it's not your fault" scene. Which is where 90%+ of that will likely end up a year from now when it turns out that no, they didn't know and were not ready to willingly embrace the bad side outcome that the probability odds said was coming.
 

Cellar-Door

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Every one of those teams, including Houston (nobody is confusing your AVP hire for taking a stab at trying to uncover the next promising young offensive genius), had a lot more going for them in one form or another then the 2024 Pats project out to have imo. You also aren't getting this year's draft stock version of Trevor Lawrence.

Are you really good with an outcome this year that sees the Pats have the same season the Carolina Panthers did last year, and that sees either Maye/Daniels put up a similar type of season that Bryce did? Because being good with it isn't the same thing as just saying your are while playing out the full range role of Matt Damon in the "it's not your fault" scene. Which is where 90%+ of that will likely end up a year from now when it turns out that no, they didn't know and were not ready to willingly embrace the bad side outcome that the probability odds said was coming.
I don't really agree btw, the Patriots have a better defense than most of those teams.

As to the same season as the Panthers... depends why it happens, but making draft decision on the assumption that the guy you draft is completely unready and you force him in there isn't reasonable. If they draft Maye and he isn't ready they'll play Brissett, a very competent NFL QB. Why is Carolina the comp? They are a horrifically run team that had even less talent than the current Patriots (by a good measure too I'd say). If the Patriots of 2024 are as poorly run as the 2023 Panthers it doesn't matter what they do in the draft.

The idea that you create worst case hypotheticals and then make decisions based on it is just dumb.
 

MikeM

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Why is Carolina the comp? They are a horrifically run team that had even less talent than the current Patriots (by a good measure too I'd say)..
Well I disagree on that. Since for me the better question there is why not Carolina once you subtract the NE based bias that is a lot more optimistic there on the current evaluation state of your team then anything I've seen anywhere outside of that.

I see there being pretty much zero chance btw that NE actually holds firm on a full sit year plan in the event the team is as as bad as everybody outside of NE is predicting. Much more probable imo that they just end up doing what ever other bad team seemingly does nowadays, and bend the knee to chasing after the more immediate positive spin marketting narratives that will come out of putting the hype baby in there asap.
 

Cellar-Door

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Well I disagree on that. Since for me the better question there is why not Carolina once you subtract the NE based bias that is a lot more optimistic there on the current evaluation state of your team then anything I've seen anywhere outside of that.

I see there being pretty much zero chance btw that NE actually holds firm on a full sit year plan in the event the team is as as bad as everybody outside of NE is predicting. Much more probable imo that they just end up doing what ever other bad team seemingly does nowadays, and bend the knee to chasing after the more immediate positive spin marketting narratives that will come out of putting the hype baby in there asap.
Maybe, I don't even get what your argument is though, that the Patriots are bad and should not draft a QB I guess, but there is no step 2 there. QBs get drafted to terrible rosters and succeed, some fail, same as not terrible rosters. If you think a player can be a franchise QB you draft him because few guys can be that, and it's a lot easier to build out around him (as long as you aren't dumb and trade away your future picks) than it is to build then find one later. JAX had a bad roster and added a top prospect, HOU same thing, those worked because the QB evaluation was right, SF had an excellent team, traded up and failed miserably, because they got the eval wrong, the Jets had a bad team, drafted the QB, built a strong team around him... didn't work because they botched the eval. Bengals had a terrible team, drafted a QB, were terrible for another year as they built up around him... went to the SB in year 2 why.... they hit the QB eval out of the park and they did a good job adding talent later.

Getting the QB eval right is the most important thing, building around a top QB isn't the easiest thing in the world, but it's far from the hardest. Finding an elite QB is the hardest thing in the league, so if you think you've done it, you can't walk away from that because the easier stuff isn't done yet.
 

MikeM

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Maybe, I don't even get what your argument is though, that the Patriots are bad and should not draft a QB I guess, but there is no step 2 there. QBs get drafted to terrible rosters and succeed, some fail, same as not terrible rosters. If you think a player can be a franchise QB you draft him because few guys can be that, and it's a lot easier to build out around him (as long as you aren't dumb and trade away your future picks) than it is to build then find one later. JAX had a bad roster and added a top prospect, HOU same thing, those worked because the QB evaluation was right, SF had an excellent team, traded up and failed miserably, because they got the eval wrong, the Jets had a bad team, drafted the QB, built a strong team around him... didn't work because they botched the eval. Bengals had a terrible team, drafted a QB, were terrible for another year as they built up around him... went to the SB in year 2 why.... they hit the QB eval out of the park and they did a good job adding talent later.

Getting the QB eval right is the most important thing, building around a top QB isn't the easiest thing in the world, but it's far from the hardest. Finding an elite QB is the hardest thing in the league, so if you think you've done it, you can't walk away from that because the easier stuff isn't done yet.
I wasn't making an argument so much as an observation that is left seriously questioning whether the far more likely bad side probability outcome is actually getting any real acknowledgement consideration within a lot of these takes here.

Again I believe it will be interesting, just as it is now in Carolina, to see how well a lot of the take a QB at #3 logic stances hold up if when one was to revisit these threads a year from now. Especially as somebody who's even a little more optimistic then most here on the possible trade down package NE might be able to extract while exploring the possibility. I think given the ask being made out of you as a team without a QB (that wasn't really being asked out of the Bears trade last year), and combined with the fact the trade down has to push you out of the top 10, probably puts that market ask out of Minny at both this year's 1sts and their next 2. And if you could get that I think the far more probable regret possibility a year from now lies in leaving it on the table when the CJ Stroud hit doesn't happen.
 

Myt1

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I know what I want them to do, but my credibility as a QB evaluator went right in the crapper when I was all in on the Mac Jones pick. I know lots of people get these things wrong - including some of the best NFL evaluators on the planet - but still. I really swung big and missed on that one. UGH.
This is, like, a pretty fucking awesome post. We should all be so self-aware.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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Also worth noting, in a year where we got terrible QB play, our 2 most important defensive players got hurt, and we had our projected offensive line healthy for zero games.... still took some bad kicking and a lot of luck to not win out of the top 3. Every year there are teams that have those kind of key injury disaster years, and they often pass by the "bad talent on offense" teams. Just looking at it, any of these teams with the wrong injuries are #1 pick contenders... SEA, NO, LV, WAS, NYG, CAR, DEN, TEN, ARI, MIN, TB, JAX... those are all the same kind of middling teams people expected the Patriots to be last year... Lawrence goes down? Kyler? LV has line issues?, etc. etc. League is loaded with teams that are 7-8 wins if healthy, 3-5 wins if injured.
This is all true.

Roll the dice now.
 

Mystic Merlin

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I’m kind of like, if Eliot Wolf sits the Krafts down and just lays it out that they really aren’t sure about the QB at number 3 but they need to take shot after shot after shot every year until they find the guy, maybe it’s fine?
 

SMU_Sox

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Does this make JJ the likely target for Minnesota given where O'Connell apprenticed?

Shanahan made it work with Ryan, Jimmy G, Purdy... probably would have got something out of Mac. The guy is kind of singular.
McCown knows Maye from his HS days and Shanahan himself went with the toolsy guy at 3 so I think Minnesota would go for Maye. JJM and to a degree Nix are the best fits for his system. Maye is the potential home run swing.

804611712206672334.png

Maybe he developed some bad habits or was coached into doing some bad things at UNC that he can quickly unlearn?