Mac also had, what, 1 year as a starter? And it was in front of no fans? (I could be wrong about that).
There were people that pointed out the footwork/fade away issues before the draft, @SMU_Sox being one of them, but generally Mac was seen as poised within the pocket, mature in terms of understanding and reading defenses, and I just think he wasn't really. The negatives focused on the physical aspect of his game, and while those flaws definitely showed up every Sunday, I think he failed for reasons that were generally perceived as strengths.
Isn't Maye's reasonably high as well? Penix is exceptional in that department, though.
Agreed. McAdoo and AVP have very good reputations when it comes to developing QBs as well.
Maye is below 20%, 19.2% and 19.5% in 2022 and 2023. He is at the higher end of the acceptable range. JJM is around 16.5% which is fine.
If you were Eliot Wolf and the draft goes Caleb then Maye....are you for sure trading down? And would the Vikings and Broncos be too far to trade down as you would lose out on all of MHJ, Odunze, and Joe Alt?
Yeah, Daniels' range is basically a who's who of failed NFL QBs, but anything below the 20% threshold is acceptable with a pretty varied range of outcomes.
It depends on how much they give me. I might trade down and then use some of those assets to trade back up to make sure I get Odunze. I don't love the top tier of the OT class this year. Lots of B+ maybe A- kind of guys which is fine but when you are looking at potential all-pro level WRs it is tough to pass that up. They need both and finding a LT is harder but this is a multi-year rebuild. There isn't a right answer here either. If you think scarcity of LT means getting a potential very good one this year that makes sense to me too.
One of those necessary but not sufficient conditions with exceptions like Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson. Two kind of HUGE exceptions
. Sumer sports pod covered it well. Great pod. Highly recommend. Their analytics are top notch too. I enjoy the hell out of their content.Someone keep this info from Adam Peters.
The bolded is mostly false. "Their most important games" is subjective, but let's look at MSU, the home stretch, and the playoffs:
Question for you SMU, what's the assessment of JJ on off platform throws? It seems like he did it a fair amount last season and he's pretty good at it, although the near-interception on the first play against Bama nearly killed me.
I don't think Fields and Mariota give me much hope for the outcome either. Lamar was right at the threshold, Burrow is one of the sole outliers and even his rate was lower. Daniels' pressure to sack rate on third down was 30.2% as well, which scares me half to death (Maye's was 19.8%).
I have an article about Daryl Morley in my notes talking about his experience from trying to evaluate young talent for the draft. The gist of it is that it's extremely hard, that the people doing the evaluations can be biased, while there are very few objective standards to use. It also talks about how those interviews can be very misleading. Granted, it's somewhat different situation, because it's about less known players in another sport, but still.
You’re arguing one thing and I’m arguing another. I don’t care why he wasn’t throwing the football much in certain games. My point is that he’s judged on a different playing field than other QBs because he wasn’t tested in the same way. How does he respond when the defense has their ears pinned back and they’re putting pressure on him over and over again? Because that will be his life in the pros, not protecting a lead with a great running game, great D, and an OL that outmatches every opponent they face.
People also aren’t taking into account that he injured his right leg at the end of the first half at Penn State. That injury was severe enough that he only attempted one pass in the second half (which doesn’t show up in the stats because it generated an interference call) and had difficulty planting for the rest of the regular season, which had a huge impact on his accuracy for the rest of the season.
The PFF guys are all over this and are really REALLY down on Daniels as a result.
Off-platform in-pocket is something he doesn't do a whole lot of so I can't really speak to it. Off-platform out of pocket he's actually got pretty good accuracy to the short and intermediate areas of the field in front of him. In that Bama game, for example, he has some touch passes off-platform while moving that were nice. His mobile accuracy is one of the better areas of his game as long as the targets aren't too far out. He won't be able to do a Maye or Herbert or Allen kind of throw it on a strike 45 yards downfield while moving and his decision making and vision isn't always great off-platform but he can certainly make many of those throws, just not the S-tier ones.
Does this count as off-platform and out of the pocket? Man this play just sticks in my head (and I'm a Michigan / JJ fan!). You can't do this on the first PLAY of the CFP semifinal. Just horrific.
His pick sixes (multiple) against TCU the year before weren't exactly great decisions either (both throws from the pocket).
Appreciate the response as always! I should've clarified I meant on the move, and not so much in the pocket.
I think this goes back to my earlier post--JJ drastically cut down on INTs in big games from 2022 to 2023, even though he basically had identical TD/INT ratios on the same amount of attempts. Also, what SMU said in response re the route and JJ being a true Sophomore and first year starter.
Maybe "the bad old days" can mean - WHEN WE LISTENED TO SHIT LOMBARDI SAYS.
FWIW Vegas and all the major sporting books are leaning heavily in favor of that former. Having you tied with Carolina at a league worst 4.5 win line for the year, and with only one other team (Denver) league wide within 2 wins of that. While also having the other 3 AFC East teams at 9.5+ wins each.
last year the 7 teams with the worst wins O/U includes only 2 teams that are picking in the top 10 this year.FWIW Vegas and all the major sporting books are leaning heavily in favor of that former. Having you tied with Carolina at a league worst 4.5 win line for the year, and with only one other team (Denver) league wide within 2 wins of that. While also having the other 3 AFC East teams at 9.5+ wins each.
They, like pretty much everybody else outside the team's own optimistic echo chamber i've seen weighing in, seem to think it is indeed a lot more likely then not that you will be in prime contention for next year's #1 overall pick. With it also being that, and not the potential opportunity value on the trade table mind you, that appears to be driving much of this speculation that keeps circling back to the Pats trading out. Speculation that certainly isn't shying away from any direct acknowledgement on things like having such a high probability projection chance of being one of the worst teams in football next year. Or with the fact that if you were to hypothetically try to script out a worst possibile surrounding setup to draft a young QB into, while hoping to avoid typical bad team failures...what comes out the other end probably looks a lot like the bad team New England Patriots with all it's surrounding question marks and concerns do now.
It would be interesting to see how many of those same people beating the "YOU GO FOR IT. FRANCHISE QB OR BUST!" drum so loudly last winter to justify Carolina drafting Bryce into a similar high probability to fail situation are still holding the logic line there today. Especially AFTER he (and pretty much every other QB for that matter), who in essence is still more or less the same QB talent now that he was then, start losing a lot of that hype machine driven value the moment it gets driven off the lot.
Would trading Bryce Young today net you a pick high enough to take that JJ flyer this year? Does it get you Penix or Nix?
Also worth noting, in a year where we got terrible QB play, our 2 most important defensive players got hurt, and we had our projected offensive line healthy for zero games.... still took some bad kicking and a lot of luck to not win out of the top 3. Every year there are teams that have those kind of key injury disaster years, and they often pass by the "bad talent on offense" teams. Just looking at it, any of these teams with the wrong injuries are #1 pick contenders... SEA, NO, LV, WAS, NYG, CAR, DEN, TEN, ARI, MIN, TB, JAX... those are all the same kind of middling teams people expected the Patriots to be last year... Lawrence goes down? Kyler? LV has line issues?, etc. etc. League is loaded with teams that are 7-8 wins if healthy, 3-5 wins if injured.
Does this make JJ the likely target for Minnesota given where O'Connell apprenticed?
True, but we also still had a really good HC (it's hard to point to out any really poor gameplans) and this year is much more of an unknown. We could very well see more of the NO and Dallas type games.
I mean, I think the Patriots are going to be bad this year, just pointing out you can't just assume they'll be one of the 3-4 worst teams in the league.
Every one of those teams, including Houston (nobody is confusing your AVP hire for taking a stab at trying to uncover the next promising young offensive genius), had a lot more going for them in one form or another then the 2024 Pats project out to have imo. You also aren't getting this year's draft stock version of Trevor Lawrence.
I don't really agree btw, the Patriots have a better defense than most of those teams.
Well I disagree on that. Since for me the better question there is why not Carolina once you subtract the NE based bias that is a lot more optimistic there on the current evaluation state of your team then anything I've seen anywhere outside of that.
Maybe, I don't even get what your argument is though, that the Patriots are bad and should not draft a QB I guess, but there is no step 2 there. QBs get drafted to terrible rosters and succeed, some fail, same as not terrible rosters. If you think a player can be a franchise QB you draft him because few guys can be that, and it's a lot easier to build out around him (as long as you aren't dumb and trade away your future picks) than it is to build then find one later. JAX had a bad roster and added a top prospect, HOU same thing, those worked because the QB evaluation was right, SF had an excellent team, traded up and failed miserably, because they got the eval wrong, the Jets had a bad team, drafted the QB, built a strong team around him... didn't work because they botched the eval. Bengals had a terrible team, drafted a QB, were terrible for another year as they built up around him... went to the SB in year 2 why.... they hit the QB eval out of the park and they did a good job adding talent later.
I wasn't making an argument so much as an observation that is left seriously questioning whether the far more likely bad side probability outcome is actually getting any real acknowledgement consideration within a lot of these takes here.
This is, like, a pretty fucking awesome post. We should all be so self-aware.
McCown knows Maye from his HS days and Shanahan himself went with the toolsy guy at 3 so I think Minnesota would go for Maye. JJM and to a degree Nix are the best fits for his system. Maye is the potential home run swing.
