Beyond that the league schedule is going to be heavily compressed next year, using the Williams Gang as your only backups is a recipe for Theis breaking down. So having two starter quality centers means that, in theory, Boston gets to the playoffs next year with both guys rested and healthy. And still plenty of minutes for Gill and Rill to get playing time and develop. One more big wing and they’re ready to roll.
Jae Crowder signed for the MLE at 3 years, maybe he preferred Phoenix to returning to Boston but I'dve offered that anyway
I'd rather have Thompson than anyone on that list, and it isn't close on most of them.
With the possible exception of Crowder, Thompson is better than anyone on that list. Sure you can find 80% of Thompson’s production for half the cost but then come playoff time you’re giving minutes to a far worse player. Incremental improvements on the margins can mean a lot for team with title aspirations.
Yeah, I've come to the realization that you just have a really bizarre valuation on Thompson that differs from basically everyone else.
I see where you're coming from, but I don't really think any of the wings you're suggesting here see minutes in the playoffs. Most of the 2/3/4 minutes in the playoffs will go to Smart, Brown and Tatum. Maybe Jae Crowder could have carved out some minutes of the 2/3 or 3/4 players you listed. Some of those guys would probably lead to more regular season wins, but we don't care about that. As lovegtm suggested recently, those backup wing minutes should go to Langford and Nesmith in the regular season for development purposes.
And without a wing, I'm giving minutes to a far worse player there, correct? Again, your current backups at your three spots that aren't C & PG are Romeo Langford, Grant Williams, Semi Ojeleye and Aaron Nesmith. That's with all three of Tatum/Brown/Smart healthy. Might be able to squeeze a handful of Teague minutes w Kemba, assuming Kemba is healthy. But the rest go to those guys right now.
Yeah, I've come to the realization that it's really bizarre people can't understand I'm saying it's less about the player and more about the positional value and opportunity cost.
No I get what you are saying, everyone does. the issue is... That's why you can get Thompson for the MLE, because he's a center, if a player had the same position relative production as a wing he's a 15M a year guy (hell the worse Marcus Morris made a ton). He's a really good player and an excellent fit for what the Celtics want in a center (besides shooting).
Much less clear roles?
Okay, part of your rationale is that you want strong backups behind Smart/Brown/Tatum for wing minutes. What happens if you sign Justin Holiday or Jae Crowder and some bi-annual exception vet for the 5 if Theis (who missed 19 games his first season and 16 his second) gets hurt? You're relying on Williams and that unknown player in the playoffs? The 5 isn't as valuable as it was in the early 2000s but that doesn't mean you can just throw trash out there and expect them to survive in the Celtics defensive ecosystem.
They didn't sign Thompson for his rebounding ability. That's a bonus. They signed him because he's an exponentially better defensive player than Kanter. And he's a a high effort, rugged player, which actually does help in the playoffs.
See I don't see any of those guys as clear top 8 rotation guys for us next year. Worst case scenario sure, but hopefully not, and definitely not in the second year
Yes, I'm relying on Williams, the second guy I'm getting for cheaper, or a buyout guy if Theis gets hurt
You think TT is an overpay, but want Ariza as an " expensive wing"? Wow.
JFC
Yeah, I think we all disagree with 3 things:
See I look at it as a minutes issue.
Well Cleveland was pretty awful, and plays Kevin Love at PF who grades out as the worst frontcourt defender in the NBA, so I'm not sure that is gonna tell you much. I'll see if I can find matchup data, but I don't have synergy.
Zero percent chance you top wing off the bench is averaging 10-13 minutes a night if you spent there instead of center
We used the BAE on Teague I believe. But the thing is... he tried to do both. Bazemore was a target at the minimum (about where he should be) he just chose to go elsewhere for personal and playing time reasons.
None of those players, including Bazemore, are really inspiring. I'd rather see Romeo learning to stay attached to his man and do mason work than any of those retreads soaking up minutes. To be clear that is a function of what is available now.
It’s better imo to Youtube “Embiid Cavs” (insert player as desired). So much of defending Embiid/Giannis is the team approach: your C is there to make things hard at the point of attack, but the rest of the players and scheme matter a LOT.
Not to pile on but injuries do happen especially with a condensed schedule. At the trade deadline you aren’t going to be able to easily acquire someone like TT as their are few of them available and are in demand by others looking for big depth. OTOH, as mcpcikl states there are many other wings flying around out there should you need to add one later.
Having guys who can penetrate, pass, and draw defensive attention are all things that will help Thompson relative to Cleveland's team last year---he's a role player on offense and that team did not have the guys to enable him to be effective at all offensively. That said, he's never going to be good offensively--just serviceable.
I've never been too convinced the on off models do enough to control for teammate quality, especially when it comes to offensive usage. There just isn't a good way for those plus minus models (as I understand them) to understand that Thompson was going to take lots of garbage shots for himself because he was surrounded by scrubs.
This is where I land. Don’t really care if he’s getting a little more than he probably deserves. He is a capable rotation big and we needed one. I don’t have any illusions or grandeur with respect to his play but I do think he’ll add something positive to the team. Just need him to set some good screens, rebound the ball, block the occasional shot, and push around opposing bigs.
Yeah, they're probably about as good as you would expect of anyone available in free agency.
It was a funny draft lottery that year, the Cavs had a 19.9% chance to win the lottery with their own pick and a 2.8% with the Clippers pick they acquired for taking on Baron Davis in a salary dump. It wound up being the Clippers pick that won the first overall and Kyrie, so their own pick fell to fourth and they got Thompson in that spot. In the much more likely scenario where their own pick had won, the Clippers pick would most likely have fallen to eighth, where Brandon Knight got taken in the real draft by the Pistons, but where Kemba, Kawhi, both Morris twins, Nikola Vucevic, Tobias Harris, Jimmy Butler, Isaiah Thomas (not that he would have gone that high), and another Thompson (Klay) were still available. Interesting “what if” draft.
I like Ibaka, but I think Thompson is a better fit for us. With centers in the current NBA, you have elite players ( a handful at most), then you have rotations. We are a rotation team, and Theis does what Ibaka does better than Ibaka, while Thompson does well the things that Theis and Ibaka don't. You pair them up with matchups determining who gets the heavier end of the night's center minute split and you can produce a lot of value out of that spot.
I think he's going to be much more useful than Kanter. He's not an immobile defensive sieve. Last year if Theis went down -- not exactly an unlikely scenario considering his history -- the Celtics were straight screwed. Grant and Kanter could not step in and keep things moving. Not really. At the very worst they now have 48 minutes and 12 fouls of very similar play to come out of the center position (trade out a little shooting and rim protection for some o-boards and lobs). And it's not like the Celtics were losing that Philly series if Kanter wasn't on the team.
Can you expand on that? On the surface it seems like Thompson is an offensive downgrade but a defensive upgrade (to be fair anyone would be over Kanter) and rebounds about the same. Which, yeah, isn’t earth-shattering, but to suggest this is the worst signing Danny’s ever made seems ridiculously hyperbolic. I mean, just last year Danny signed Poirier who produced exactly zero value.
