Trevor Story had surgery on his right UCL and is expected to miss time

lexrageorge

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A doctor quoted in the Globe said it could be 6-9 months, which is consistent with Bloom's more pessimistic assessment. I also saw our resident docs estimated timeline that is a bit sooner. But we should all acknowledge that recovery from significant elbow surgery is never an exact science. There can be a lot of variation, and a single setback could easily turn 6 months (which would be around the All Star Break) to 8, which would put Story's return in September.
 

YTF

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And then the GM of the team just gave a presser saying they’re not counting on him this year, so you do the math.

This is the third injury he’s suffered since signing in Boston and cumulatively they’ve cost him immense amounts of time over the first two years of his immense deal. Efforts to parse these injuries as not injury-prone or flukes miss the point.

I really don’t give a shit if anyone finds my takes odd. The $160 million man is once again on the shelf and the team will be adversely affected by that, and I am tempering my expectations of getting anything positive from that contract accordingly. It’s becoming increasingly clear to me that this signing has been truly regrettable.

If you wanna feel differently then go ahead.
Chaim Bloom said they're prepping like he'll miss the season. So yes, likely:

View: https://twitter.com/jtomase/status/1612923397889052682?s=20
If we're doing math do we exclude the word hopeful from the equation?
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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According to my math hopeful cancels out “don’t want to bank on.”

We’re obviously getting deep into the semantic weeds here but clearly Bloom will proceed as if Story will miss the year. He’ll look to sign a shortstop or move guys around for a while. I wouldn’t hate an Iglesias return but at this point Bloom’s directive is clear.
 

scottyno

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According to my math hopeful cancels out “don’t want to bank on.”

We’re obviously getting deep into the semantic weeds here but clearly Bloom will proceed as if Story will miss the year. He’ll look to sign a shortstop or move guts around for a while.
Which is the same way he'd proceed if the doctors told him to likely expect Story back sometime around midseason
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Which is the same way he'd proceed if the doctors told him to likely expect Story back sometime around midseason
I’m not sure that’s true, honestly; if he knew Story would be back for sure in June I think he’d be far more likely to move guys around instead of seeking to add another player. You can make do for a few months with guys shuffled, for an longer stretch I think he’ll want to add a dedicated SS.
 

scottyno

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I’m not sure that’s true, honestly; if he knew Story would be back for sure in June I think he’d be far more likely to move guys around instead of seeking to add another player.
They currently have no real utility infielder on the 40 man, so I think it's pretty safe to say that they'd be adding an infielder either way

edit: One that's ready right now. That could be Rafaela since he's played all over the field, but since he hasn't even played over AA yet and is a highly regarded prospect it seems pretty safe to say they aren't giving him that role to start 2023.
 

JM3

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And then the GM of the team just gave a presser saying they’re not counting on him this year, so you do the math.

This is the third injury he’s suffered since signing in Boston just one season ago and cumulatively they’ve cost him immense amounts of time over the first two years of his immense deal. Efforts to parse these injuries as not injury-prone or flukes miss the point. It’s the Sale discussion all over again.

I really don’t give a shit if anyone finds my takes odd. The $160 million man is once again on the shelf and the team will be adversely affected by that, and I am tempering my expectations of getting anything positive from that contract accordingly. It’s becoming increasingly clear to me that this signing has been truly regrettable.

If you wanna feel differently then go ahead.
I think most of the points in the post are semi-rational. It's just when they're woven together I feel like it loses the plot.

Sale has missed significant amounts of time over his career & has a violent motion. It's fair to be concerned about the health of his arm. Conflating arm concerns with a broken wrist from riding a bike & a broken finger from a batted ball is where one would lose me.

Being concerned that the Red Sox may have made a mistake signing a fairly expensive player with a pre-existing arm injury is perfectly reasonable. Being concerned that he might take the entire season to rest & recover, or that there might be setbacks, & to consider what one gets out of him this season to be a bonus is perfectly reasonable.

It's also perfectly reasonable to be concerned we aren't going to get value out of a 6-year contract when the 1st 2 years, which are supposed to be the best years, are very likely to be underwater.

It's not perfectly reasonable to consider a guy who has missed 8% of his games prior to this year injury prone to the point that he can't recover from am arm injury in a reasonable time frame because he broke a bone on a hbp & suffered a heel contusion last season.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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They currently have no real utility infielder on the 40 man, so I think it's pretty safe to say that they'd be adding an infielder either way
I was going to say Arroyo would be that guy, but of course had Story stayed healthy then Arroyo would be the second baseman. It will be interesting to see how big of a move is made, and when: if Duran flops his audition again then it will become urgent to get Hernandez back out to CF and find a real SS.
 

scottyno

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I was going to say Arroyo would be that guy, but of course had Story stayed healthy then Arroyo would be the second baseman. It will be interesting to see how big of a move is made, and when: if Duran flops his audition again then it will become urgent to get Hernandez back out to CF and find a real SS.
Even if they move Hernandez to short and have Arroyo play 2nd they still need to add another infielder unless they're prepared to open the season with Justin Turner or David Hamilton as the backup shortstop/2b
 

JM3

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Even if they move Hernandez to short and have Arroyo play 2nd they still need to add another infielder unless they're prepared to open the season with Justin Turner or David Hamilton as the backup shortstop/2b
I would expect Emmanuel Valdez over either of those options, but yeah, they'll get another guy or 2.
 

scottyno

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I would expect Emmanuel Valdez over either of those options, but yeah, they'll get another guy or 2.
2nd base maybe, I know his glove isn't supposed to be very good, but he's at least played a lot of 2nd and 3rd. He's only played 17 total innings at short in the minors.
 

JM3

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2nd base maybe, I know his glove isn't supposed to be very good, but he's at least played a lot of 2nd and 3rd. He's only played 17 total innings at short in the minors.
I'd expect Arroyo to be the backup SS in that alignment, yeah. But it's all a moot point since I think they'll get at least one guy. If they grab an Andrus or whatever, I think Arroyo/Valdez actually make a fine 2B platoon. It's not exciting, but it is what it is.
 

EyeBob

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The trade market has been clogged up for months and probably will be another week or so, but something's gotta give in one of these situations:

Cleveland: I'd thought Cleveland trade Amed Rosario this offseason, slide Gimenez to short and make room for Rocchio and Freeman. They have eight middle infielders on their 40-man roster at the moment, many of them solid prospects (Rocchio, Arias, Freeman, Jose Tena, Angel Martinez and Juan Brito) they likely don't consider fungible.

Miami: We've been over this a bunch, but it seems inevitable they'd trade away someone from their Chisholm, Segura, Wendle, Rojas (traded to the Dodgers), Berti, Xavier Edwards logjam in the middle infield. They've also got Garrett Hampson on an mL deal, who is probably still useful.

Minnesota: They grabbed Kyle Farmer as a shortstop safety net as soon as free agency began. Now they've got Correa, Arraez, Polanco, Miranda as sure bets in the infield, a couple backups in Gordon and Farmer, and top prospects in Royce Lewis (returning midseason), Edouard Julien and Austin Martin. Not certain there's a surplus here, the Twins are good at managing this stuff, but Falvey said earlier they were planning to deal from the major-league roster (likely Kepler) and Farmer seems expendable with Correa in town. Nick Gordon had a great year at the plate in 2022, but he's not much of a shortstop these days.

Anaheim: Big infield cluster here with Rendon, Rengifo, Fletcher, Urshela and Drury vying for three spots (and no DH), with fungible backups Velazquez, Soto and Stefanic kicking around. Fletcher is a very weak hitter but a particularly ideal, but he's a solid defensive shortstop.

Kansas City: Bobby Witt is the future at shortstop, and Nicky Lopez is probably a good enough defensive second baseman to stick despite the punchless bat. That leaves the bat-first 2B/3B Michael Massey, 3B/OF speedster Nate Eaton, snakebit former top prospect Adalberto Mondesi and emerging SS Maikel Garcia. Plus Hunter Dozier, who probably still has a third base glove in his basement somewhere.

Chicago North: Not much of a bottleneck here but the Swanson add seemed to end their experiment with Nick Madrigal, with Nico Hoerner slotting as their full-time 2B the next three years, and the fairly useful Christopher Morel/Zach McKinstry utility team backing him up. Madrigal is an extreme player — an off-the-charts contact hitter (and solid defender) who may not have enough oomph in his bat for it to matter. Charitably to him, he battled leg, groin and back injuries all last year and reportedly didn't have his footing right. He may not be cut out for this version of the game, or he may be Marco Scutaro.

Milwaukee: Part of this is wishcasting, but maybe they see two years of team control of Willy Adames as their last best ticket to get out of the Yelich contract. In that case they'd supplant him with top shortstop prospect Brice Turang. It's worth mentioning that they acquired two 2B/3B types in Abraham Toro and Owen Miller, and still have Keston Hiura in the 2B mix as well. Luis Urias is the 3B, but can play a capable shortstop too. He's not the prize Adames is, but I'd be thrilled to get him for a reasonable cost, and I get the sense they might be down on him in Milwaukee.

Baltimore: They don't trade real players within the division, but they've got Mateo at short, Gunnar Henderson slated for third and newly signed Adam Frazier at second. That could leave Mateo or the other Urias brother, Ramon, without a full-time job. Mateo had a rough offensive year last year but Urias was pretty solid. Both likely lost a few homers from their decision to move the LF fence back (Urias had a 125 wRC+ on the road).

There are probably more, and then there are Andrus, Iglesias and Villar, whose asking prices are probably dropping now that the Dodgers found their shortstop. I'm guessing Bloom has several of these options tiered, and is waiting for one or more combinations to shake loose.

I'd say shortstop defense is a top priority. We're looking like a much more groundball-heavy pitching staff than last year. Bello, Whitlock, Sale, Houck, Martin and Winckowski are all heavy groundball pitchers; so are Paxton if he's the 2013-17 version and Kluber if he wants to be.
It’s takes like this that keep me coming to this site. Great perspective.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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They sincerely hoped that rest and rehab would do the trick, but that obviously didn't work out.
The reports were that Story started his usual throwing program after some rest and felt the problem just before Christmas. I don't think there's any blame about the timing to be laid at anyone's feet. If he felt it just before Christmas and had surgery this week, that's fast movement.
 

sezwho

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One thing I wanted to bring up is that Bloom said nothing on the medicals suggested Story's elbow was about to explode:

View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1612974855044882434


Taking him at face value, even though the obvious conclusion is he was damaged goods (see all the snarky posts on page 1, myself included), maybe it was just bad luck. (Or our medical staff is that bad.)
Thanks for putting these together.

Was interesting to hear Bloom acknowledge Story's arm injury and that they observed a clear corresponding change in throwing motion afterwards. Even without any pathology on imaging that’s got to be serious alarm bells for a middle infielder. Yes, 20-20 hindsight.

It’s takes like this that keep me coming to this site. Great perspective.
Agreed, good read @chawson.
 

InsideTheParker

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Very interesting. Here's the most important part, in my opinion, for those who don't have time to read the whole thing:
For decades, Tommy John surgery represented the only consistently effective procedure for ligament tears, and it sidelined players for 12-18 months. Attempts to repair the ligament rather than reconstructing it proved ineffective.

But around the time that Andrews wondered to Dugas whether there might be something beyond the single hammer-and-nail approach, Dr. Gordon Mackay in Scotland took advantage of technological innovations to develop a new procedure to treat torn ankle ligaments: the internal brace. Rather than creating a new ligament, Mackay attached two small plastic anchors to the bones, then used a super-tape between the anchors, running along the ligament to repair it.

With no need for the ligamentization of tendons, and without drilling holes in bones, the recovery time was cut dramatically. Dugas was convinced that for patients with healthy tissue and smaller tears of the UCL, an internal brace was stronger than the ligament.

“You’re lining up the fibers of the tape in line with the ligament; it’s right on top of the ligament,” Dugas said. “It’s another layer of very, very stable material to control the instability and control the stress on the now-repaired ligament. You’ve repaired the ligament and now you’ve augmented it.”
 

8slim

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Which is the same way he'd proceed if the doctors told him to likely expect Story back sometime around midseason
No it's not. They spent last year repeatedly talking about getting Sale back mid-season, and planned the roster accordingly. They've done the same with many other players. There is clearly reason to believe Story won't play in 2023. It's just an is, but there's no reason to make stuff up about the response.
 

Green Monster

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Yet another use for Duct Tape

Honestly, I am sure it is an over simplification but it doesn't sound all that promising that they taped his elbow together
 

walt in maryland

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Probably true, but in this case what exactly is down the road? Mayer won't be a factor until at minimum late 2024, so unless he's holding out for more than 2 years it shouldn't be an issue. He can play short, Arroyo can stay at 2nd, and then when Story comes back Arroyo becomes the utility guy, something they don't really have on the roster right now.
Don't want Iglesias to be the only MI they acquire, but he's a nice, affordable choice for the second spot.
 

walt in maryland

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Fair enough, and it sounds like Story could miss most of the year anyways so probably not something worth worrying about at this point. I don’t know what Andrus is looking for but he’s at the point where he may have to settle for what he can get and the Sox can clearly offer playing time.

Hell, one could probably make a case for signing two veteran IF.
I'd like to see one acquired via trade. Someone with more upside than the FA options
 

walt in maryland

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Desperate times call for desperate measures. Who plays shortstop for the majority of 2023? Maybe we can get Iglesias. He seems play a bit better in Boston than anywhere else it. However, 2023 certainly seems like a placeholder year at best, particularly now that Story is out for at least half a season. I realize it's unprecedented for players to make a leap from High A to the majors, but Mayer seems like a reasonable possibility. I know there's a lot for him to develop, but for a team that's likely not going all that far in 2023, I'm not sure there would be a major problem developing that skill set at the major league level. It would certainly provide some excitement, and Lord knows, the 2023 Red Sox are going to need quite a bit of that. Xander at 19, Devers at 21, and Tony C at 20 all provided a spark. Why not?

I'm sure I'll be criticized for even suggesting this, but I'd certainly like to see Marcelo get a shot as the starting shortstop in 2023 if his spring training suggests he can handle it. I don't think giving him the audition would be a crushing blow to him if he doesn't make it, and there are certainly players who have broken in at a similar age (Xander and Robin Yount seem the best comps to me). Until Story comes back I believe Arroyo would be a serviceable second baseman for half the year, and Story can then slot into what would be the best position for him. I am waiting for the inevitable negatives on this move, but it doesn't seem like it's a hopeless choice at this point,
Hard pass. Mayer's development is far more important than hoping for miracles in 2023
 

ehaz

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The trade market has been clogged up for months and probably will be another week or so, but something's gotta give in one of these situations:
Nick Madrigal is interesting as a former top prospect if the Cubs are ready to give up on him. You’d still need a SS but I’d be willing to take a flier on him in addition to an Iglesias signing or something like that. Maybe his value cratered enough such that a change of scenery trade with Dalbec/Duran going the other way could work for both sides.
 

walt in maryland

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Does Royce Lewis become available with the Twins signing Correa? He’s coming back from the ACL injury but appears to be on track to come back early next year. His trade value is comparable to Houck on BTV. I imagine the price is much higher than that but he seems like the right type of guy to trade value for.
A lot of interesting MI names in Minnesota now that Correa has signed. Assuming Arraez is off the table (or unaffordable), there could be a deal to be made for Polanco, Farmer, Lewis or even Gordon (shaky 2b defense). Polanco would seem to make the most sense. Minnesota would be selling low on Lewis.
 

NewDawn

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I think it's time to overreact. Put a package together for the Pirates to get Reynolds. It's going to hurt. But he comes with three years control. Move Kiki' to short until Story gets back.
 

brandonchristensen

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I think it's time to overreact. Put a package together for the Pirates to get Reynolds. It's going to hurt. But he comes with three years control. Move Kiki' to short until Story gets back.
Even if we did that there’s still three, arguably four teams in our division that are better than us.

Not worth it at all.
 

chawson

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Nick Madrigal is interesting as a former top prospect if the Cubs are ready to give up on him. You’d still need a SS but I’d be willing to take a flier on him in addition to an Iglesias signing or something like that. Maybe his value cratered enough such that a change of scenery trade with Dalbec/Duran going the other way could work for both sides.
I'd rather see a solution like that, grabbing former top prospects with several avenues to potential upside, than an Iglesias/Andrus stopgap.

Something like this: add Adalberto Mondesi (SS), Nick Madrigal (2B) and Nick Senzel (2B/CF) and let some combination of them, Kiké and Arroyo cycle through the up-the-middle positions until Story is ready.
 

Granite Sox

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Notably, Masahiro Tanaka partially tore his UCL in 2014 in his first season with the Yankees. Just as notably, he never got TJ and has learned how to pitch with it for 9 years. Despite everyone wailing “Liar! Liar!” at Bloom for suggesting that the medicals were okay for Story at signing and that this represented a “new” injury since the end of the season, I’m willing to take that at face value.

Maybe Jon Abbey, Evil Empire, or one of SoSH’s other Yankees experts can provide more context (I don’t think Tanaka ever recovered his velo but certainly proved to have an effective career prior to returning to Rakuten), but I think Story will be fine upon return.
 

jon abbey

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I wouldn't bring Tanaka into this, a pitcher as opposed to a hitter and a pitcher who threw his FB less than any other SP in MLB, I believe.
 

Squeteague

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But I bet he threw a lot more balls over the course of a season (or nine) than the average middle infielder.
Statcast has Story with 416 throws in 94 games in 2022, and 769 in 142 games in 2021. In the same years Nick Pivetta threw 3082 and 2785.
 

joe dokes

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Note that the ASB return is speculation from the writer, not a quote from Story.
I'm not sure anyone really knows with any precision. And it will also likely depend on circumstances. If the Sox have, say, a 10-game division lead at the ASB, they be a bit more conservative.