Trading Chips and Keepers

Devizier · Jan 27, 2014

Cellar-Door said:
I'm guessing he gets $12M less on the cap next year. I don't see a big contract out there the Celtics would want that will be available.
Humphries might be able to get a 2nd if he made about 7.5M less than he does.

Clearing cap space is worth less than nothing to the Celtics. The byzantine restrictions on free agency combined with the Celtics' mediocrity makes it a virtual certainty that the team cannot sign an impact player this summer. Given their current situation, they'd almost be better off giving Humphries a 1-year extension at the same rate. This is why returning salaries are probably not a major issue.

The question for me is who (or what) the Celtics can get tacked on to the returning salary.

wutang112878 · Jan 27, 2014

Putting the Humphries trade aside for a moment, this team has to shed some salary. No sane owner wants to pay the tax while they are rebuilding, and this year we are right up against the tax. To some degree this restricts what Danny can do, whereas if you are a safe $5-7M or so under the tax you dont have to worry about say taking on a few extra million in a trade.

I do agree that gaining cap space wont save the franchise, but cap space can be a tool for your franchise. In trades you can take on more salary than you give up, and you can gain assets that way. You can also sign players to extensions to reduce their future cap hits, like the Nick Collison extension. Everyone always jumps right to free agent signings with cap space, but its not limited to that.

Cellar-Door · Jan 27, 2014

Dumping Humphries money is worth a lot to this team, Bradley is an RFA,, they'll need to re-sign him, or possibly use him in a S&T. They are adding two draft picks at least who will make at least $6M combined, they have no interest in paying tax, nor should they. Additionally what would they get? Humphries isn't an asset in himself, only as an expiring. Where is the bad deal that a team is so desperate to dump they'll give up really good assets to do it? And further if the deal is that bad it likely becomes an albatross for the re-build since there is only 1 2 year deal that bad (Amare).

Devizier · Jan 27, 2014

The Celtics have 5 million coming off the rolls with Bogans' non-guaranteed contract. All said, the Celtics have a shade over $18 million coming off the books next season, even with escalators. They can squeeze in the return on a Humphries deal and a Bradley extension without breaking a sweat.

The X Man Cometh · Jan 28, 2014

If I'm Danny I'm loading up to make Phoenix an offer they can't refuse to get Archie Goodwin.

Boston trades:
Jeff Green
Keith Bogans
2014 BKN/ATL 1st (proj. 20th pick)

Phoenix trades:
Emeka Okafor
Archie Goodwin
2014 IND 1st (proj. 30th pick)

Devizier · Jan 28, 2014

The X Man Cometh said:
If I'm Danny I'm loading up to make Phoenix an offer they can't refuse to get Archie Goodwin.

Boston trades:
Jeff Green
Keith Bogans
2014 BKN/ATL 1st (proj. 20th pick)

Phoenix trades:
Emeka Okafor
Archie Goodwin
2014 IND 1st (proj. 30th pick)

?? Archie Goodwin? Why?

The X Man Cometh · Jan 28, 2014

Devizier said:
?? Archie Goodwin? Why?

19 years old, gets to the rim at will, high baseline on defense. Worst case scenario you get a role player on a rookie contract for a role player on a veteran contract, best case scenario is he figures out how to shoot consistently and you just did to the Suns what the Suns did to the Clippers.

Devizier · Jan 28, 2014

The X Man Cometh said:
19 years old, gets to the rim at will, high baseline on defense. Worst case scenario you get a role player on a rookie contract for a role player on a veteran contract, best case scenario is he figures out how to shoot consistently and you just did to the Suns what the Suns did to the Clippers.

The difference here is that Bledose had already demonstrated that he was a capable NBA player when the Suns traded for him.

Goodwin is still a late-first round pick with a half-season's worth of scrub minutes. Unless there's something you know about what he's done in practice, I don't see any reason to value him more highly than teams valued him at the draft.

nighthob · Jan 28, 2014

The X Man Cometh said:
If I'm Danny I'm loading up to make Phoenix an offer they can't refuse to get Archie Goodwin.

Boston trades:
Jeff Green
Keith Bogans
2014 BKN/ATL 1st (proj. 20th pick)

Phoenix trades:
Emeka Okafor
Archie Goodwin
2014 IND 1st (proj. 30th pick)

Wait, the Suns end up with the best player in the deal and get to trade up? Does McDonough have a photo of Danny smoking a cigarette over a cup of coffee or something?

bowiac · Jan 28, 2014

I think any deal that puts the Celtics into the luxury tax this year isn't super realistic, which I think that Okafor trade would do.

Jer · Jan 28, 2014

Yeah. I'd say if Danny thinks Goodwin has shown something special in the D-league, he should just offer the ATL/BKN pick and we use the trade exception to make the money work.

Don Buddin's GS · Feb 5, 2014

Fellow Dayton grad Steve Bulpett on the Chris Johnson dilemma:

http://bostonherald.com/sports/celtics_nba/boston_celtics/2014/02/d_day_looms_for_celtics

Jer · Feb 5, 2014

It doesn't seem like much of a dilemma to me. The minimum salary+luxury penalty can't be that high right?

Sign him for the rest of the season... then waive someone if we need a roster spot for a deadline deal. Vander Blue and Bayless seem like obvious candidates.

Brickowski · Feb 5, 2014

It doesn't seem like much of a dilemma to me. The minimum salary+luxury penalty can't be that high right?

It's the penalty for being a repeat offender that stings. Teams that are luxury tax payors in 4 of the last 5 years have an extra $1.00 surcharge. So instead of paying $1.50 for each dollar over the luxury tax threshold, it's $2.50.

Jer · Feb 5, 2014

~~So they'd sign him for around $200K and pay $500,000 in penalty? So a $700,000 outlay for the rest of the season?~~
So they'd sign him for around $316K and pay $789K in penalty? So a $1.1M outlay for the rest of the season?

Seems worth it to me. Johnson appears to be a serviceable option to stash at the end of their bench for a few years for at minimal salary.

EDIT: Didn't realize that Johnson had a year of service time already. This bumped up the #'s.

Eddie Jurak · Feb 5, 2014

Jer said:
~~So they'd sign him for around $200K and pay $500,000 in penalty? So a $700,000 outlay for the rest of the season?~~
So they'd sign him for around $316K and pay $789K in penalty? So a $1.1M outlay for the rest of the season?

Seems worth it to me. Johnson appears to be a serviceable option to stash at the end of their bench for a few years for at minimal salary.

EDIT: Didn't realize that Johnson had a year of service time already. This bumped up the #'s.

I think part of the point is that if they don't go over this year the can avoid repeat offender status next year.

wutang112878 · Feb 5, 2014

As a matter of principle I can see the owners wanting to avoid the tax this year. If it was my money, I would have a very tough time writing a luxury tax check for this team. I'd rather they pocket the $500K penalty and use it to pay a future tax when this team has a chance again

Jer · Feb 5, 2014

Is there a reputable site to find out where the Celtics currently are relative to the Luxury Tax and the surcharge?

I thought they were about $500K under to start the season. It would seem that the transactions since then would give us a little more wiggle room.

[table Celtics Transactions]Anthony +$3.8M Bayless +$3.1M Johnson +$0.1M Lee -$5.2M Brooks -$1.2M Crawford -$2.2M NET -$1.6M [/table]

Obviously that math isn't perfect because I didn't pro-rate salaries.

EDIT: If this site is accurate the Celtics have about about $1.5M of room under the luxury tax right now.

lexrageorge · Feb 5, 2014

The Globe article below seems to indicate that the team could still sign Johnson and remain below the luxury tax threshold. But it appears Ainge may want to keep as much breathing room as possible in advance of the trade deadline. The $1.5M therefore seems about right.

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2014/02/05/playoffs-still-possibility-for-celtics/CoeEzEb7YEx8lgTeoffFtI/story.html

Jer · Feb 5, 2014

Still seems like the $316K for Johnson is a no-brainer unless he's got a whopper of a deal in the works.

Brickowski · Feb 5, 2014

From Larry Coon via Hoopsworld: This pretty much explains why the Celtics need to stay under the threshold this year. And if they stay under both this year and next, they'll be able to spend like drunken sailors for three years after that without incurring the surcharge.

"The first year of the repeater tax (2015) will only apply to teams that were also taxpayers in the three previous seasons — 2011-12 through 2013-14. So right now, only Boston and the Lakers are candidates. The Celtics will probably stay out of the tax this season, and the Lakers are clearing the books next summer. So I don’t think any team will be a repeater in 2015. Starting in 2016 a team is a repeater if they were taxpayers in any three of the previous four seasons (for 2016 that’d be 2011-12 through 2014-15). That means any team that was a taxpayer in either 2012 or 2013 would be a repeater if they are a taxpayer in both 2014 and 2015. Most teams will be able to avoid the repeater penalty. A few teams like Brooklyn probably won’t care. The system is set up — well, "set up" is probably a bad way to put it. I don’t think they did it intentionally — so that two years out of the tax buys you three years IN the tax without being a repeater. I think many teams will adopt this strategy."

mcpickl · Feb 5, 2014

Jer said:
Is there a reputable site to find out where the Celtics currently are relative to the Luxury Tax and the surcharge?

I thought they were about $500K under to start the season. It would seem that the transactions since then would give us a little more wiggle room.

[table Celtics Transactions]Anthony +$3.8M Bayless +$3.1M Johnson +$0.1M Lee -$5.2M Brooks -$1.2M Crawford -$2.2M NET -$1.6M [/table]

Obviously that math isn't perfect because I didn't pro-rate salaries.

EDIT: If this site is accurate the Celtics have about about $1.5M of room under the luxury tax right now.

They are probably closer to 1M under the tax line. Tax number is calculated daily, so everything is prorated.

They saved around 900K swapping out Lee for Bayless/Gomes
Lost around 200K swapping Crawford/Brooks for Anthony
Then spent around 125K on Johnson/Blue

I think they'll probably sign Johnson, unless Ainge thinks being able to take back the extra salary in a deal would net him a better asset than Johnson.

Going into the luxury tax is a non-starter. As other have pointed out, they need to avoid the repeater tax. If they can stay out of the tax this year and next when they're rebuilding, it will save them an extra $1 for $1 penalty on going over the tax for each of the following three seasons if they choose.

Also, any team that stays under the tax qualifies to get a piece of the tax penalties paid by teams over the tax. Last year that was a 1.5M check.

It wouldn't make sense for economic or competitive reasons.

mcpickl · Feb 5, 2014

Sprowl said:
Wasn't there also some money coming back along with Anthony, money that would be deducted from the tax number?

On a related matter, what is the value of the trade exception that the Celtics hold? It disappears after the season, so Ainge has to use it or lose it.

Cash received in a trade doesn't affect the luxury tax calculation, it's just straight salary on the books daily.

I doubt the Celtics use their trade exception(at least the big one for Pierce) unless it's just for bookkeeping in a deal. Like receive big salary player from team A into trade exception, move a big salary player to team B that's over the cap that also has a trade exception. I don't think they'll just acquire a big money guy using their trade exception to go over the tax line.

Brickowski · Feb 6, 2014

I do not believe the $10,275,136 exception from the Pierce trade expires until July 14, 2014. And if I'm not mistaken, the luxury tax numbers for 2013-14 will be computed as of June 30, 2014. So, Ainge has a two-week window within which to use some or all of the exception without affecting this year's luxury tax calculations. By that time, Humphries, Bogans and Bayless may be off the books. Gomes will be off the books, and possibly Bradley, Pressey and Faverani as well.

So the exception still might be very useful.

Don Buddin's GS · Feb 6, 2014

Chris Johnson will stay for the rest of the season: http://www.boston.com/sports/basketball/celtics/extras/celtics_blog/2014/02/celtics_plan_to_sign_chris_johnson_for_the_remainder_of_the.html

Koufax · Feb 6, 2014

That's the right move. He is one of the few players on the team who is actually worth his salary.

Brickowski · Feb 6, 2014

That's the right move. He is one of the few players on the team who is actually worth his salary.

Yes, and I hope Ainge got a team option for next year and possibly a third.

bowiac · Feb 6, 2014

Based on ASPM, he has been the Celtics best player so far this year on a rate basis (and one of only three players to be above average overall, along with Humphries and Jordan Crawford). It's only eight games of course, but he's an interesting piece so far.

Put another way, I'd rather have him than Kelly Olynyk.

wutang112878 · Feb 6, 2014

We need to let this one play out a little longer. I remember the days when we were so excited for Vitor and couldnt believe we found a competent center at such a reasonable price, but today he looks a little bit different. I'm glad Danny got to keep him, but I am pretty confident that once he gets close to the 700 minute mark that Olynyk is at, they will both look equally unimpressive.

wutang112878 · Feb 6, 2014

I wasnt really trying to condemn Olynyk, just using him as the noted comparison of regression to the mean.

Olynyks an interesting case because of his ability to shoot 3s. If he can play adequate defense, rebound and shoot the 3 well he would be a huge asset on the floor. To become that asset he has to rebound better than he currently is and shoot the 3 a little better and then the rest should come. If all that comes together, we might have a poor mans Kevin Love without the special rebounding ability. What I dont understand is how, on this team with this talent, he cant find more minutes

Koufax · Feb 6, 2014

He is slow and soft. It really hurts his defense. Other big men with quick moves get by him with ease. He needs to build himself up so that he is less of a cream puff, and he needs to learn how to get in the way of people effectively. His touch is very nice, but by iteself it isn't enough to keep him in the NBA.

The X Man Cometh · Feb 6, 2014

wutang112878 said:
I wasnt really trying to condemn Olynyk, just using him as the noted comparison of regression to the mean.

Olynyks an interesting case because of his ability to shoot 3s. If he can play adequate defense, rebound and shoot the 3 well he would be a huge asset on the floor. To become that asset he has to rebound better than he currently is and shoot the 3 a little better and then the rest should come. If all that comes together, we might have a poor mans Kevin Love without the special rebounding ability. What I dont understand is how, on this team with this talent, he cant find more minutes

Honestly, Olynyk is getting "his shots" already he just isn't taken them. I cringe every time he catches the ball on the perimeter, gets a big to fly past him with a shot fake, then hesitates and just swings the ball back to a guy on the 3 point line. Zero confidence.

bowiac · Feb 6, 2014

Sprowl said:
A big man looking unimpressive at 25 is, well, unimpressive. A big man looking unimpressive at 22 is par for the course. It is way too early to give up on Olynyk. He has Kevin McHale length and touch inside. He certainly can't touch McHale for variety, moves, or defensive instincts, but by the time Olynyk is 25, I think he will be a real asset.

I hope you're right, but apart from being very tall, Olynyk hasn't shown us much yet.

wutang112878 · Feb 6, 2014

The X Man Cometh said:
Honestly, Olynyk is getting "his shots" already he just isn't taken them. I cringe every time he catches the ball on the perimeter, gets a big to fly past him with a shot fake, then hesitates and just swings the ball back to a guy on the 3 point line. Zero confidence.

I dont disagree with anything that you wrote, I just think its going to take time. Some guys come into the league with immediate confidence in their game and arent tentative whatsoever. Olynyk is not in that category, and I think time and slightly improved results should increase his confidence and then I think we will truly get to see what he is as a player. If we could have transplanted Jordan Crawfords brain into his body it would be interesting to see what we would have

Brickowski · Feb 6, 2014

Ainge erred big time by not taking the Greek kid, but that doesn't mean Olynyck is a lost cause. He needs to cut his hair-- or put it into a pony tail, or corn rows or whatever-- and get into the weight room. Seriously. How are officials going to respect a guy with dorky 60's hair and a dorky hairband? Bjorn Borg was so 30 years ago. Olynyck is also a center. Trying to make him some sort of perimeter facilitator will impede his development. He needs to put on 20-25 pounds of muscle and get down on the blocks where he belongs. At present, he's too weak and too skinny to create enough space to get his shot off, even though he has a nice repertoire of post moves.

southshoresoxfan · Feb 6, 2014

Olynyk CAN develop, but he needs to dedicate himself this offseason in the weight room. Its unlikely he can add the foot speed needed to play the small ball 4 role, but he can fill out/lower his body fat he can be an effective 5 in todays NBA. This one's on him. He's got the touch around the hoop when he's able to get in position and create enough room, building muscle/becoming more basketball strong will obviously help this.

nighthob · Feb 6, 2014

bowiac said:
I hope you're right, but apart from being very tall, Olynyk hasn't shown us much yet.

Yeah, I have no idea where this mythical "length" is coming from. He's 7' with a 6'10" wingspan. He's the opposite of long. He is tall, though, I have to give him that. To me he looks like the second coming of Brad Lohaus.

wutang112878 · Feb 6, 2014

Brickowski said:
Ainge erred big time by not taking the Greek kid, but that doesn't mean Olynyck is a lost cause. He needs to cut his hair-- or put it into a pony tail, or corn rows or whatever-- and get into the weight room. Seriously. How are officials going to respect a guy with dorky 60's hair and a dorky hairband? Bjorn Borg was so 30 years ago. Olynyck is also a center. Trying to make him some sort of perimeter facilitator will impede his development. He needs to put on 20-25 pounds of muscle and get down on the blocks where he belongs. At present, he's too weak and too skinny to create enough space to get his shot off, even though he has a nice repertoire of post moves.

Olynyk
Olynyk
Olynyk

O l y n y k

Give me an O
Give me an L
Give me an Y
Give me an N
Give me an Y
Give me an K

What's that spell? Olynyk

That's about the hundredth time you misspelled that and I am not the first to tell you.

Brickowski · Feb 6, 2014

When he puts on 20 lbs of muscle and starts to play better maybe I'll learn to spell it right.

MakMan44 · Feb 7, 2014

Chris Johnson got a multi year deal.

http://www.nba.com/celtics/news/press_release/celtics-sign-johnson

Brickowski · Feb 7, 2014

Nice to see Olynyk (did I spell that right?) playing well. In fact, he was playing so well tonight that Stevens took him out LOL.

ishmael · Feb 7, 2014

MakMan44 said:
Chris Johnson got a multi year deal.

http://www.nba.com/celtics/news/press_release/celtics-sign-johnson

So did Keith Bogans.

Edit: while I'm happy for Chris Johnson and hope he becomes a valuable rotation guy, I also hope Danny signed him to a non-guaranteed deal for 2014-15. That way his contract is one more asset the team has to play with over the summer.

southshoresoxfan · Feb 8, 2014

New rule for this thread...no more mchale olynyk comps please

Devizier · Feb 8, 2014

Kelly Olynyk is the white WIlt Chamberlain. You heard it here first.

Eddie Jurak · Feb 8, 2014

Devizier said:
Kelly Olynyk is the white WIlt Chamberlain. You heard it here first.

In the basketball sense, or in the "slept with 20,000 women" sense?

The X Man Cometh · Feb 8, 2014

Eddie Jurak said:
In the basketball sense, or in the "slept with 20,000 women" sense?

He goes for the gay friend thing and before they know it its too late

Trading Chips and Keepers

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