Tompa Bay: Tom Tom Club

BigSoxFan

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Not a mod but I’ll offer a friendly reminder that delving into COVID beliefs is out-of-scope for these BBTL threads. We may report positive cases since it’s newsworthy information that can impact the on-field product but there is a V&N thread to discuss this topic in greater depth with far more latitude for editorializing about athletes’ motivations, perceived selfishness, etc.
 

Dick Drago

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Not a mod but I’ll offer a friendly reminder that delving into COVID beliefs is out-of-scope for these BBTL threads. We may report positive cases since it’s newsworthy information that can impact the on-field product but there is a V&N thread to discuss this topic in greater depth with far more latitude for editorializing about athletes’ motivations, perceived selfishness, etc.
Thanks for the reminder, apologies—hadn’t remembered it wasn’t appropriate (and after rebuking Tom for not thinking:) )
 

Marciano490

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Lol it’s like the AIDS episode of South Perk. We found a cure, just put the virus around a ton of money!
 

nattysez

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Our boy is getting into crypto. He’s actually turned into a somewhat decent actor.
I believe Brady owns Autograph, which is the company that provides the platform for Draft Kings' NFTs, which seem to be doing ok.

Feels like FTX might be a latecomer to the crypto exchange game, but I guess we'll see.
 

Ralphwiggum

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Tonight Tom Brady will play in his 302 NFL game, the most ever for a non-kicker (Blanda the exception, but he was mostly not a QB for the last nine years of his career). He needs a little more than 1100 yards and 364 completions to catch the retired loser Drew Brees for both, giving him the rightful trifecta of all time passing stats in the NFL. Barring injury he should get both this season (the yards easily, the completions will come later but his last full season with fewer than 364 was 2010 and of course there's the extra game this year). It's actually kind of amazing that with Brees still active through 2020 that Brady has received relatively little fanfare for those marks, compared to Manning's choreographed barfest with Welker when he passed Favre for career TD passes.

He played in the first game of his career when I was 28 when Bill Clinton was still the President, 9/11 hadn't happened yet, Facebook wasn't invented yet, the internet and Amazon were in their relative infancy. The world was a completely different place. I was 28 at the time, tonight when I watch him I am 49, so he's been playing QB in the NFL for over 40% of my life. I just sent a kid off to college who wasn't even born until well after he won his first Super Bowl, and I have a Pats obsessed 15 year old son who doesn't understand why they don't at least play in the Super Bowl every year. Oh, and his team has the 2nd best odds to win the SB, which would be his eighth.

Man I wish it could have all happened for him in New England, but either way that's a career that nobody is ever having again, ever. I don't give a shit if Mahomes is only 25 or whatever and will get to play an extra game every season the rest of his career. It's absolute looney tunes numbers across the board.

Go get 'em Tom (except on October 3 when I hope you throw five picks and lose by 100 points).
 

Bergs

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Tonight Tom Brady will play in his 302 NFL game, the most ever for a non-kicker (Blanda the exception, but he was mostly not a QB for the last nine years of his career). He needs a little more than 1100 yards and 364 completions to catch the retired loser Drew Brees for both, giving him the rightful trifecta of all time passing stats in the NFL. Barring injury he should get both this season (the yards easily, the completions will come later but his last full season with fewer than 364 was 2010 and of course there's the extra game this year). It's actually kind of amazing that with Brees still active through 2020 that Brady has received relatively little fanfare for those marks, compared to Manning's choreographed barfest with Welker when he passed Favre for career TD passes.

He played in the first game of his career when I was 28 when Bill Clinton was still the President, 9/11 hadn't happened yet, Facebook wasn't invented yet, the internet and Amazon were in their relative infancy. The world was a completely different place. I was 28 at the time, tonight when I watch him I am 49, so he's been playing QB in the NFL for over 40% of my life. I just sent a kid off to college who wasn't even born until well after he won his first Super Bowl, and I have a Pats obsessed 15 year old son who doesn't understand why they don't at least play in the Super Bowl every year. Oh, and his team has the 2nd best odds to win the SB, which would be his eighth.

Man I wish it could have all happened for him in New England, but either way that's a career that nobody is ever having again, ever. I don't give a shit if Mahomes is only 25 or whatever and will get to play an extra game every season the rest of his career. It's absolute looney tunes numbers across the board.

Go get 'em Tom (except on October 3 when I hope you throw five picks and lose by 100 points).
I enjoyed this post.
 

johnmd20

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It's actually kind of amazing that with Brees still active through 2020 that Brady has received relatively little fanfare for those marks, compared to Manning's choreographed barfest with Welker when he passed Favre for career TD passes.
As one of the biggest Tom Brady fans you will ever meet, I do follow him very closely. And you can say a lot of things about Tom Brady, but "has received little fanfare" is not one of them. The last 8 months have been all fanfare, all respect, and all joy. You can't listen to a NFL podcast without Tom Brady being spoken about in hushed tones of awe.

It is nothing but fanfare. So if the all time yards record, which Brady currently doesn't have, isn't getting a lot of press, it is only because it's hard for that to cut through the gobs of fanfare Tom Brady is already receiving.
 

Ralphwiggum

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As one of the biggest Tom Brady fans you will ever meet, I do follow him very closely. And you can say a lot of things about Tom Brady, but "has received little fanfare" is not one of them. The last 8 months have been all fanfare, all respect, and all joy. You can't listen to a NFL podcast without Tom Brady being spoken about in hushed tones of awe.

It is nothing but fanfare. So if the all time yards record, which Brady currently doesn't have, isn't getting a lot of press, it is only because it's hard for that to cut through the gobs of fanfare Tom Brady is already receiving.
Yes totally fair. What I meant was because Brees and Brady were going back and forth with the TD record there wasn't really much pomp and circumstance associated with it, which is understandable. Of course in the grand scheme of things Brady is not wanting for fanfare.

Edit: I was sort of stream of consciousness writing that post, that portion of it kind of conflated two thoughts in my head. Plus I needed to take a shot at Manning.
 

Euclis20

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Tonight Tom Brady will play in his 302 NFL game, the most ever for a non-kicker (Blanda the exception, but he was mostly not a QB for the last nine years of his career). He needs a little more than 1100 yards and 364 completions to catch the retired loser Drew Brees for both, giving him the rightful trifecta of all time passing stats in the NFL. Barring injury he should get both this season (the yards easily, the completions will come later but his last full season with fewer than 364 was 2010 and of course there's the extra game this year). It's actually kind of amazing that with Brees still active through 2020 that Brady has received relatively little fanfare for those marks, compared to Manning's choreographed barfest with Welker when he passed Favre for career TD passes.

He played in the first game of his career when I was 28 when Bill Clinton was still the President, 9/11 hadn't happened yet, Facebook wasn't invented yet, the internet and Amazon were in their relative infancy. The world was a completely different place. I was 28 at the time, tonight when I watch him I am 49, so he's been playing QB in the NFL for over 40% of my life. I just sent a kid off to college who wasn't even born until well after he won his first Super Bowl, and I have a Pats obsessed 15 year old son who doesn't understand why they don't at least play in the Super Bowl every year. Oh, and his team has the 2nd best odds to win the SB, which would be his eighth.

Man I wish it could have all happened for him in New England, but either way that's a career that nobody is ever having again, ever. I don't give a shit if Mahomes is only 25 or whatever and will get to play an extra game every season the rest of his career. It's absolute looney tunes numbers across the board.

Go get 'em Tom (except on October 3 when I hope you throw five picks and lose by 100 points).
I agree that the extra game won't be a huge component of any career records, the bigger reason why all of Brady's personal records will fall is the different passing environment. In his second full season at age 25, Brady lead the league in TD passes with 28. This past year, 28 would have been good for just 11th. Mahomes had 38 TD passes last year (coincidentally, also his age 25 season), just 4th. League-wide there were 694 TD passes back in 2002, compared with 871 last year. That's a full 25% increase - all of the passing records will fall in the coming years, it's just a question of when and who.

The wins and super bowls are just mind-boggling, and people have a really hard time putting them in their proper context. Brady is the GOAT and he's in the super bowl every other year, which is causing too many people to think that's just how it works (the best player in the NFL gets to the super bowl a lot). This isn't the NBA where that's actually the case. After Brady, the best QBs over the last 20 years have been Manning, Brees and Rodgers. In 49 combined years as starters they've got just 6 SB appearances. Brady made getting to and winning the super bowl look too easy. There's this idea out there that 2-3 more super bowls for Mahomes is a given with an outside shot at challenging Brady, and it's just insane.
 

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The earliest football game I can remember actually watching and understanding what was happening was the Patriots vs Colts game, Brady's first start. I remember Indy was expected to crush them as they had gotten off to a hot start and the Patriots were reeling after Bledsoe got hurt. I was 6 at the time, 27 now.
 

Dollar

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Tonight Tom Brady will play in his 302 NFL game, the most ever for a non-kicker (Blanda the exception, but he was mostly not a QB for the last nine years of his career). He needs a little more than 1100 yards and 364 completions to catch the retired loser Drew Brees for both, giving him the rightful trifecta of all time passing stats in the NFL. Barring injury he should get both this season (the yards easily, the completions will come later but his last full season with fewer than 364 was 2010 and of course there's the extra game this year). It's actually kind of amazing that with Brees still active through 2020 that Brady has received relatively little fanfare for those marks, compared to Manning's choreographed barfest with Welker when he passed Favre for career TD passes.
I can't wait for Peyton and Brees fans to say that Brady's statistical career should have an asterisk because he played during 17-game seasons.
 

johnmd20

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I can't wait for Peyton and Brees fans to say that Brady's statistical career should have an asterisk because he played during 17-game seasons.
Is this like one of those situations where you're mad about people being mad about something, but, in reality, those people being mad don't exist?
 

Ralphwiggum

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I agree that the extra game won't be a huge component of any career records, the bigger reason why all of Brady's personal records will fall is the different passing environment. In his second full season at age 25, Brady lead the league in TD passes with 28. This past year, 28 would have been good for just 11th. Mahomes had 38 TD passes last year (coincidentally, also his age 25 season), just 4th. League-wide there were 694 TD passes back in 2002, compared with 871 last year. That's a full 25% increase - all of the passing records will fall in the coming years, it's just a question of when and who.
Mahomes needs to average 31 TD passes a year from now until he's 40 to catch Brady, and that's assuming Brady never throws another one. If Brady has a good year this year and an average year next year and then hangs them up with, say, 620 TDs, that is going to be a tough number for anyone to get to. It's theoretically do-able but far from a sure thing. Brady also doesn't get enough credit for his durability. He's never missed a game due to injury outside of the season he lost to an ACL, including as he is playing into his mid-40s. I think the game has to evolve to the point where the game favors the offense such that someone could do it in 15 full seasons of excellence to make it happen. So that's a 41 TD a season pace to get to that number.

We shall see, his regular season numbers may not be completely untouchable like his post-season numbers are, but I think they'll stand for a while.
 
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johnmd20

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Mahomes needs to average 31 TD passes a year from now until he's 40 to catch Brady, and that's assuming Brady never throws another one. If Brady has a good year this year and an average year next year and then hangs them up with, say, 620 TDs, that is going to be a tough number for anyone to get to. It's theoretically do-able but far from a sure thing. Brady also doesn't get enough credit for his durability. He's never missed a game due to injury outside of the season he lost to an ACL, including as he is playing into his mid-40s. I think the game has to evolve to the point where the game favors the offense such that someone could do it in 15 full seasons of excellence to make it happen. So that's a 41 TD a season pace to get to that number.

We shall see, his regular season numbers may not be completely untouchable like his post-season numbers are, but I think they'll stand for a while.
I agree with you. It's easy to look at Mahomes at 25 and think he's going to be the same player at 35. But a long time in the NFL breaks most players. It is, in fact, a very violent game. It will not be that easy to catch Brady in TDs and I don't think he'll be caught in yards.

And, obviously, the postseason numbers are locked up for eternity.
 

johnmd20

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Just did a little look at the playoff yards leader. Brady is at 12,449. Number 3 on the list is Favre at 5,855.

Lol.
 

Euclis20

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Mahomes needs to average 31 TD passes a year from now until he's 40 to catch Brady, and that's assuming Brady never throws another one. If Brady has a good year this year and an average year next year and then hangs them up with, say, 620 TDs, that is going to be a tough number for anyone to get to. It's theoretically do-able but far from a sure thing. Brady also doesn't get enough credit for his durability. He's never missed a game due to injury outside of the season he lost to an ACL, including as he is playing into his mid-40s. I think the game has to evolve to the point where the game favors the offense such that someone could do it in 15 full seasons of excellence to make it happen. So that's a 41 TD a season pace to get to that number.

We shall see, his regular season numbers may not be completely untouchable like his post-season numbers are, but I think they'll stand for a while.
Very true, although he's averaged 38 TDs per season as a starter, so to get to 620 he'd need to keep up this pace for another 13-14 years. If it's not him it will be someone else, and while Brady may be unique in that he's playing at a pro-bowl level in his mid-40s, there will be plenty of other guys who play at a pro-bowl level into their late 30s (and who've spent their entire career playing 17 games per year, in the passing era).

One rule change that will make it even harder for Mahomes: One bye per conference. Obviously this is still a reward for the one seed, but I think it's another change that will increase variance in the playoffs, making it even harder for any individual player to catch Brady's playoff success.

Or not, who knows. Mahomes is 6-0 in the playoffs against teams not QB'ed by Tom Brady, maybe once the latter retires Mahomes will run the table until he gets bored.
 

Kliq

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One of the more annoying things is the expectation that Mahomes will just be the new Brady when Brady retires. People were saying it before the SB, that if Mahomes won he would be well on his way to tying or surpassing Brady since he would already have two SB rings, as if the additional four that would be required to match Brady would be easy to come by. Brady's combination of statistical highs, longevity and team dominance is a once-in-a-100-year type phenomenon and it's ridiculous to think that the next person who assumes the mantle as the best QB in football will be able to match his accomplishments.
 

BusRaker

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I agree that the extra game won't be a huge component of any career records, the bigger reason why all of Brady's personal records will fall is the different passing environment. In his second full season at age 25, Brady lead the league in TD passes with 28. This past year, 28 would have been good for just 11th. Mahomes had 38 TD passes last year (coincidentally, also his age 25 season), just 4th. League-wide there were 694 TD passes back in 2002, compared with 871 last year. That's a full 25% increase - all of the passing records will fall in the coming years, it's just a question of when and who.
I'm a huge Brady fan but I think that some of the QB's of the 70's through 90's could have had a chance to play a lot longer with today's QB protection rules, as well as bigger numbers with the rules limiting the defensive backs as well.
 

Ralphwiggum

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I'm a huge Brady fan but I think that some of the QB's of the 70's through 90's could have had a chance to play a lot longer with today's QB protection rules, as well as bigger numbers with the rules limiting the defensive backs as well.
This is obviously true in that we've seen several QBs play well into their mid to late 30s who are Brady's contemporaries whereas Favre was an anomaly among his peers. Nonetheless none of them (yet) have played into their 40s, though, which is probably what it is going to take.

With regard to Mahomes specifically the loss of Andy Reid and not having elite weapons every year will impact him as well. The former will obviously happen and while he'll be an elite QB no matter who his coach is, a shitty coach will have at least some impact on his numbers. The latter is likely to happen as well, so far he's spent his entire career throwing to an elite TE with an elite set of WRs and a good running game to boot.
 

johnmd20

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Very true, although he's averaged 38 TDs per season as a starter, so to get to 620 he'd need to keep up this pace for another 13-14 years. If it's not him it will be someone else, and while Brady may be unique in that he's playing at a pro-bowl level in his mid-40s, there will be plenty of other guys who play at a pro-bowl level into their late 30s (and who've spent their entire career playing 17 games per year, in the passing era).

One rule change that will make it even harder for Mahomes: One bye per conference. Obviously this is still a reward for the one seed, but I think it's another change that will increase variance in the playoffs, making it even harder for any individual player to catch Brady's playoff success.

Or not, who knows. Mahomes is 6-0 in the playoffs against teams not QB'ed by Tom Brady, maybe once the latter retires Mahomes will run the table until he gets bored.
Mahomes on a rookie contract was absolutely the best deal in sports. That is going away, it will be much harder for KC when he's taking up a lot more of the cap.

I love Mahomes, he's talented beyond belief, one of the best QBs in history after 3 seasons. But he's gotta do it for 18 more seasons. That is not easy, you need to be a psycho and get lucky. His best hope is that his defenses are bad and he has to keep passing and passing and passing every year.
 

Ralphwiggum

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Just did a little look at the playoff yards leader. Brady is at 12,449. Number 3 on the list is Favre at 5,855.

Lol.
The post season numbers are stupid, and of course they all stem from the fact that he's started 45 games, which if you think about is just absurd. Manning is 2nd in QB starts at 27, which is a completely respectable number and at the same time not in the same galaxy as Brady's number.

If Brady throws 7 more TD passes in the post-season in his career he'll have double every other QB who ever played with the possible exception of Aaron Rodgers.
 

tims4wins

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The wins and super bowls are just mind-boggling, and people have a really hard time putting them in their proper context. Brady is the GOAT and he's in the super bowl every other year, which is causing too many people to think that's just how it works (the best player in the NFL gets to the super bowl a lot). This isn't the NBA where that's actually the case. After Brady, the best QBs over the last 20 years have been Manning, Brees and Rodgers. In 49 combined years as starters they've got just 6 SB appearances. Brady made getting to and winning the super bowl look too easy. There's this idea out there that 2-3 more super bowls for Mahomes is a given with an outside shot at challenging Brady, and it's just insane.
One of the more annoying things is the expectation that Mahomes will just be the new Brady when Brady retires. People were saying it before the SB, that if Mahomes won he would be well on his way to tying or surpassing Brady since he would already have two SB rings, as if the additional four that would be required to match Brady would be easy to come by. Brady's combination of statistical highs, longevity and team dominance is a once-in-a-100-year type phenomenon and it's ridiculous to think that the next person who assumes the mantle as the best QB in football will be able to match his accomplishments.
Completely agree with these takes. Russell Wilson also thought he was going to win 6 titles. He hasn't even played in a conference championship game since he had that thought.

I've said it before, but right now, today, the Chiefs are more or less exactly where the Seahawks were post SB49. We'll see where they go from here.
 

joe dokes

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Mahomes on a rookie contract was absolutely the best deal in sports. That is going away, it will be much harder for KC when he's taking up a lot more of the cap.

I love Mahomes, he's talented beyond belief, one of the best QBs in history after 3 seasons. But he's gotta do it for 18 more seasons. That is not easy, you need to be a psycho and get lucky. His best hope is that his defenses are bad and he has to keep passing and passing and passing every year.
*This* is where the "Brady needed Belichick, too" angle comes in. While he *did* have Brady, BB also built really good teams around him for most of his career, turning the roster over multiple times. Is Mahomes going to get that from Reid (a damn good coach and personnel guy, IMO) who is already 63?
 
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Silverdude2167

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One of the more annoying things is the expectation that Mahomes will just be the new Brady when Brady retires. People were saying it before the SB, that if Mahomes won he would be well on his way to tying or surpassing Brady since he would already have two SB rings, as if the additional four that would be required to match Brady would be easy to come by. Brady's combination of statistical highs, longevity and team dominance is a once-in-a-100-year type phenomenon and it's ridiculous to think that the next person who assumes the mantle as the best QB in football will be able to match his accomplishments.
This is the thing about Brady and BB that makes everything they did so special...BB is the reason Brady has 6 rings and that is not saying Brady does not deserve all the allocates he gets, but BB was able to always turn over the roster and put a team around Brady that could give them a shot at the crown every year.

Nothing in the way the Chiefs have built their team tells me they will be good in 5 years. They will be like the Packers with an amazing QB who gives them a chance but something else will fail and sink them because they did not take care of the middle of the roster.
 

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Is Mahomes going to get that from Reid, who is already 63?
This is a really terrific point. Mahomes's chances of catching any of Brady's postseason marks will depend in no small part on who eventually replaces Reid.
 

Van Everyman

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Mahomes on a rookie contract was absolutely the best deal in sports. That is going away, it will be much harder for KC when he's taking up a lot more of the cap.

I love Mahomes, he's talented beyond belief, one of the best QBs in history after 3 seasons. But he's gotta do it for 18 more seasons. That is not easy, you need to be a psycho and get lucky. His best hope is that his defenses are bad and he has to keep passing and passing and passing every year.
And stay healthy. Mahomes looked pretty dinged up last year and I literally can’t remember a single season like that from Brady.
 

Time to Mo Vaughn

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Yes totally fair. What I meant was because Brees and Brady were going back and forth with the TD record there wasn't really much pomp and circumstance associated with it, which is understandable. Of course in the grand scheme of things Brady is not wanting for fanfare.

Edit: I was sort of stream of consciousness writing that post, that portion of it kind of conflated two thoughts in my head. Plus I needed to take a shot at Manning.
Nice Update. I had a thread tracking this that I started just before the 2018 season! https://www.sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/drew-vs-tom-vs-time.24633/ It looks pretty clear what the results are going to be now though a question of how long they'll continue to rise.

I think a big reason there was no pomp around Manning being passed is because the race was essentially still on between Brees and Brady. It's stupid to take a victory lap when it might change from week to week. I also think there will be less fanfare for the Passing Yards or Completions records. I think Passing TDs is the equivalent of the HR record and Brady already has that. It's a bit anticlimactic now that he'll be keeping it with Brees retirement.
 

johnmd20

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This is a really terrific point. Mahomes's chances of catching any of Brady's postseason marks will depend in no small part on who eventually replaces Reid.
I am going to go out on a limb and say that Mahomes has no chance catching Brady in the postseason categories. It is 0%.

Regular season numbers are definitely possible. But nobody is going to play as many playoff games as Brady has. And that isn't a particularly hot take.
 

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I am going to go out on a limb and say that Mahomes has no chance catching Brady in the postseason categories. It is 0%.

Regular season numbers are definitely possible. But nobody is going to play as many playoff games as Brady has. And that isn't a particularly hot take.
Yep, which is why I didn't bother mentioning regular season stats. They overlap, but if he stays upright the bulk of Mahomes career will be played in a different generation under more favorable rules regarding passing
 

Mystic Merlin

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I agree with you. It's easy to look at Mahomes at 25 and think he's going to be the same player at 35. But a long time in the NFL breaks most players. It is, in fact, a very violent game. It will not be that easy to catch Brady in TDs and I don't think he'll be caught in yards.

And, obviously, the postseason numbers are locked up for eternity.
Agreed. Plus, some of these guys might not want to play football into their 40s. Mahomes could wake up in March 2032 and decide to move on, even if he’s physically capable of playing.

I don’t see the Chiefs being as good as the Patriots for like 15-20 years, which would require them to sustain many core talent and coaching staff rollovers around Mahomes, so totally agree that Mahomes has a negligible chance to catch his postseason records.
 

johnmd20

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Agreed. Plus, some of these guys might not want to play football into their 40s. Mahomes could wake up in March 2032 and decide to move on, even if he’s physically capable of playing.

I don’t see the Chiefs being as good as the Patriots for like 15-20 years, which would require them to sustain many core talent and coaching staff rollovers around Mahomes, so totally agree that Mahomes has a negligible chance to catch his postseason records.
Like I said, to do what Brady has done, you have to be great, lucky, and a psycho. That psycho part. . . .is rare.
 

Import78

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I am going to go out on a limb and say that Mahomes has no chance catching Brady in the postseason categories. It is 0%.

Regular season numbers are definitely possible. But nobody is going to play as many playoff games as Brady has. And that isn't a particularly hot take.
The other crazy thing about the post season numbers is that he has had something like 12-13 first round byes. If he had played those games his numbers would be even more absurd.
 

BusRaker

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Even if they expand playoffs from 3-4 possible games to 4-5 possible games that only bumps up the potential playoff games 20-25 %
 

Euclis20

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Completely agree with these takes. Russell Wilson also thought he was going to win 6 titles. He hasn't even played in a conference championship game since he had that thought.

I've said it before, but right now, today, the Chiefs are more or less exactly where the Seahawks were post SB49. We'll see where they go from here.
Wilson is a good example, the first that always comes to mind for me is Roethlisberger. He's a level below Brady (and Mahomes) for sure, but he's a 6x pro-bowler with a well run franchise who had 2 SBs and went to a third in 2010, his age 28 season. He was five years younger than Brady and one game away from tying him in SB wins...and since that Super Bowl, not only has he not gotten back to the Super Bowl, he's won just 3 playoff games total in the last 10 years. Rodgers has won 3 MVPs in the last decade, but hasn't been back to the Super Bowl.

I get why people are enthralled with Mahomes, both in terms of pure stats and wins, but it's baffling to me that people are just assuming he'll win a few more when we consider that the other QBs with multiple MVPs in the last twenty-five years (Manning, Rodgers, Warner) only got a single super bowl victory in their primes. Brady's dominance has made way too many people forget there is a ton of luck involved here.
 

Kliq

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I have a lot of questions about Mahomes' potential longevity. The first is that a huge part of his success is thriving off of broken plays, being able to scramble and make difficult throws deep downfield. What happens when he becomes less mobile? What happens if he loses some arm strength and those risky throws across his body turn into Favre-esque picks? He will have to evolve a lot as a passer and as a decision-maker in order to play well into his late 30s.
 

tims4wins

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I have a lot of questions about Mahomes' potential longevity. The first is that a huge part of his success is thriving off of broken plays, being able to scramble and make difficult throws deep downfield. What happens when he becomes less mobile? What happens if he loses some arm strength and those risky throws across his body turn into Favre-esque picks? He will have to evolve a lot as a passer and as a decision-maker in order to play well into his late 30s.
The other question I have is what happens when Tyreke Hill and Kelce decline. Brady never relied on the level of skill players to the degree Mahomes does. They did have Gronk for the second half of the run, but he didn't even play in the 2016 playoffs, and in 2018 he wasn't GRONK.
 

Kliq

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At some point you do have to become more of a pocket passer who makes quick decisions, limits the amount of risky throws, picks up blitzes quickly or audibles out of them, and run a standard offense. People who know more about the Xs and Os might say that Mahomes already does this at an elite level, but watching him I find a lot of his success hinges on broken plays and relying on his athleticism.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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The other question I have is what happens when Tyreke Hill and Kelce decline. Brady never relied on the level of skill players to the degree Mahomes does. They did have Gronk for the second half of the run, but he didn't even play in the 2016 playoffs, and in 2018 he wasn't GRONK.
I think this is a pretty huge factor. Hill and Kelce is literally one of the best 1-2s in recent NFL history in terms of pass catching weapons. But Kelce is about to turn 32 and while Hill is only 27, his skill set may not age that well and he is UDFA after 2022. So there is a good chance that we'll only see maybe 1-2 more years of Hill and Kelce playing for KC at the level they've been doing it for the last three seasons. With draft picks and salary cap space you can find other good pass catchers, but these guys are both elite talents and you can't automatically replace elite talent. Its not like Mahomes is so amazing that he has turned guys like Mecole Hardman and Sammy Watkins into stars. Watkins was actually a more productive player before coming to KC. When Hardman was drafted, everybody said "There's your Tyreek Hill successor" but he is nowhere close.

The bottom line is that while Mahomes is a fantastic QB, he's human and like every other QB is dependent on having elite players around him. And churning your roster to find new elite players is hard.