The X Files: Hanley comparisons

smastroyin

simpering whimperer
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Jul 31, 2002
20,684
Hanley has probably had a better career than Xander will have.  
 
But Hanley was also coming off of a shitty season in AA where he regressed in almost every phase of the game and was starting to develop "attitude problems"* and furthermore was apparently pretty pissed at the idea of moving to 3B or CF and the Sox didn't think he could stay at SS.  Beckett was thought of as one of the best young pitchers in the game.  He was still only 25 at the time of that trade.  As well there was the whole distraction of the Theo gorilla suit and many other transactions that off-season.  Whereas this off-season has been pretty boring.
 
* - turns out the attitude issues were likely the result of Trenton Portland coaches and Sox player development guys fucking around too much with his swing and approach at the plate.  Somewhere between "all Hanley's fault" and "all Red Sox fault" lies the truth.
 
The SoSH thread for the trade, if you are interested.
 
(In the "things that make you feel old" vein, I always underestimate how long it has been since the Sox ditched Trenton for Portland, since I used to go to Trenton as an adult)
 

smastroyin

simpering whimperer
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Jul 31, 2002
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I love X.  I think he is a better prospect than Hanley was and he has shown more in the minors than Hanley did.
 
But, Hanley took a big step forward in the majors.  Hanley has had 4 seasons with wOBA over .400 (for comparison sake David Ortiz had a .400 wOBA in 2013).  Even counting his defense as bad (and not all do) he was an MVP candidate in at least two seasons (and probably three). He hit a little bit of a stall at age 27 but he's still just 30 and just had his best season by rate stats (though the injuries made it only half a season).
 
If X can outdo that in his first 8 years in the league, people around here are going to be exceptionally happy.
 

Eck'sSneakyCheese

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May 11, 2011
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I just looked at the numbers. Wow. Hanley was on a tear last year...

OK. I see where you're coming from. X has a ton of potential but Hanley has really produced since he's been in the majors. X has his work cut out for him.
 

Sprowl

mikey lowell of the sandbox
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Jun 27, 2006
31,531
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Split from the Peavy/Iggy Trade thread.
 
***
 
If Bogaerts measures up as well as Ramirez by age 29, he'll have comparisons like Cano, Garciaparra, Torre, Jeter, and Pedroia. It would be great expectations indeed for Bogaerts to be better than that.
 

AlNipper49

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Apr 3, 2001
40,402
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I love X. I think he is a better prospect than Hanley was and he has shown more in the minors than Hanley did.

But, Hanley took a big step forward in the majors. Hanley has had 4 seasons with wOBA over .400 (for comparison sake David Ortiz had a .400 wOBA in 2013). Even counting his defense as bad (and not all do) he was an MVP candidate in at least two seasons (and probably three). He hit a little bit of a stall at age 27 but he's still just 30 and just had his best season by rate stats (though the injuries made it only half a season).

If X can outdo that in his first 8 years in the league, people around here are going to be exceptionally happy.


There were a few years there where you could make a case that he would have been the top "if you could pick one player to start your franchise with" answer (the one that Mile Trout will now occupy for the next five years)
 

Minneapolis Millers

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Jul 15, 2005
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I don't need X to be as good as Hanley has been. I just want him to be better than any player the MFYs have over the next 6 years. That's not asking for too much, is it??
 

Papi's fan

Banned
Sep 19, 2005
255
Texas
Minne, X not only has unmeasured talent, but I'm thinking his plus attitude will serve himself and the team well for hopefully some time. I hope he is a natural leader to complement captain Pedroia.
 

Savin Hillbilly

loves the secret sauce
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Jul 10, 2007
18,163
The wrong side of the bridge....
I had forgotten just how good Hanley was in his first few years. There are only four shortstops since 1900 to post an OPS+ of 130 or better through age 25 with at least 1000 PA: Arky Vaughan, A-Rod, Nomar, and Hanley. That's pretty impressive. It would certainly be awesome if Xander could even come within spitting distance of that offensive level over the next five years.
 

Philip Jeff Frye

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Oct 23, 2001
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It really is amazing how that one crappy year in Miami followed by a salary dump trade really colors opinions on him, isn't it?
 

Hendu for Kutch

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Apr 7, 2006
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In the first SOSH Real Fantasy Draft 5 years ago, Hanley was taken 2nd overall after Pujols.  And it was something of a no-brainer at the time.  He had a few down years, but he was an absolute monster at the beginning of his career.
 

seantoo

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Jul 16, 2005
1,308
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Philip Jeff Frye said:
It really is amazing how that one crappy year in Miami followed by a salary dump trade really colors opinions on him, isn't it?
Frye, this is actually the norm for everyone. Human memory is very flawed by feelings, perception etc. For example, often a player who starts off on fire or does terrible or a few injuries will have even knowledable fans stick to this initial impression long after it should be obvious that the initial impression was in fact wrong. 
 

JakeRae

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Jul 21, 2005
6,376
New York, NY
 

Philip Jeff Frye said:
It really is amazing how that one crappy year in Miami followed by a salary dump trade really colors opinions on him, isn't it?
 
What to make of Hanley right now is an interesting question. Prior to last season, he looked like he had fallen back to earth and was, while still good, definitely not great anymore. Then, last year, his half season was by far the best he has ever played. He hit 20 HR in 336 PA and posted a .293 ISO when his previous career high had been .239. He also hit for a .345 average. And, while some of that was luck fueled, his .363 BABIP is not really an outlier so much as just on the high side of his established BABIP range. If he can keep the power increase he showed last year, he is back to being one of the very best players in the game. His .442 wOBA was second to only Cabrera's .453 last year for players with at least 200 PA. By wRC+, Cabrera just barely edged him at 192 versus 191. And, perhaps even more impressively, by Fangraphs Offense rating, which is a counting stat, he was 15th in all of baseball despite his 336 PA. Only 2 players ahead of him had fewer than 600 PA. Only one, David Wright, had fewer than 500 and he had 492. 
 
Hanley was spectacular last season while no one was paying any attention.



 
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Mar 26, 2005
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Baseball reference most similar batters; pretty impressive company:
  1. Robinson Cano (888)
  2. Nomar Garciaparra (886)
  3. Joe Torre (874) *
  4. Derek Jeter (859)
  5. Dustin Pedroia (859)
  6. Tony Lazzeri (857) *
  7. Ryne Sandberg (855) *
  8. Yogi Berra (848) *
  9. Travis Jackson (848) *
  10. Ernie Banks (843) *
smastroyin said:
As well there was the whole distraction of the Theo gorilla suit and many other transactions that off-season.  
 
I can't wait for the day when some poster doesn't understand the reference to "gorilla suit".  I will really feel old then.
 

TomRicardo

rusty cohlebone
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Feb 6, 2006
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JakeRae said:
 

 

 
What to make of Hanley right now is an interesting question. Prior to last season, he looked like he had fallen back to earth and was, while still good, definitely not great anymore. Then, last year, his half season was by far the best he has ever played. He hit 20 HR in 336 PA and posted a .293 ISO when his previous career high had been .239. He also hit for a .345 average. And, while some of that was luck fueled, his .363 BABIP is not really an outlier so much as just on the high side of his established BABIP range. If he can keep the power increase he showed last year, he is back to being one of the very best players in the game. His .442 wOBA was second to only Cabrera's .453 last year for players with at least 200 PA. By wRC+, Cabrera just barely edged him at 192 versus 191. And, perhaps even more impressively, by Fangraphs Offense rating, which is a counting stat, he was 15th in all of baseball despite his 336 PA. Only 2 players ahead of him had fewer than 600 PA. Only one, David Wright, had fewer than 500 and he had 492. 
 
Hanley was spectacular last season while no one was paying any attention.



 



 
 
Everyone was too distracted by Yaisel Puig emerging.
 
No one ever remembers who blew up the 2nd Death Star.