The terribly mediocre Lakers

[Montana Fan]

So where will the Lakers finish given your insights

I don't know what you define as "blossom," but the Vegas O/U of 33 wins feels about right. Of course, we know LeBron & Silver are going to conspire to ensure the Lakers win the lottery, so the Celtics won't be getting the pick.

The Lakers are in a transition year. I don't see the commitment to defense from this team and outside of Ball, Kuzma, Ingram and Zubac don't think any of the remaining players will be around when LA next has a winning record. They are an inexperienced team and this season is simply going to be a learning year with a few wins interspersed. They won 26 games last year and their competition improved more than they did. I don't know how much Ball, Pope, Kuzma, Ingram and Randle have played together this season but I would like to see at least 4 of those 5 regularly on the court. With their length, if they play hard defense they could give people problems.

Manzivino made a good post in the Celts game thread about the teams he thinks are worse than LA. LA could finish with the 7th or 8th worst record instead of the 4th or 5th worst that I hope they are heading towards. I do think that Brooklyn will finish with more wins than LA due to softer schedule and more effort. I liked what I saw out of Brooklyn to finish last year and believe that Marks and Atkinson have turned the culture around. It's early in the season but the Nets are giving consistent effort and while they're not talented, they have a lot more talent than they've had the last few years.

Gun & Lon, I'll be shocked if Lakers win 30 games and will gladly wager $50 to the Jimmy Fund on them winning less than 30 games as well another $50 that Brooklyn finishes with more wins than LA (tie I lose).

 

[Manzivino]

Cross-posting from the C's-Heat gamethread:

The problem with the Lakers pick is their competition. They’re bad but look at the league; Chicago/Atlanta/Dallas/Phoenix are all pretty comfortably terrible at the bottom of the standings with every incentive to tank, the Knicks and Kings are really bad, and who knows who suffers a big injury. Feels like LA ends up 7 or 8 and ex lottery luck we’re rooting against the Kings next year.

 

[Sportsbstn]

Maybe now Lavar can stop talking and let the kid play. You are right lavar, he isn't losing 2 times in the same week, he is losing 3 times and playing mediocre to poor in those games.

Lonzo is a gifted passer and a good rebounder, but shooting wise I can not see him ever being good. At UCLA, transition buckets were a sizable part of his scoring and in the NBA defense is better along with the fact Ball is not quick off the dribble so getting to he basket and getting easy hoops will be an issue.

He isn't the next magic, that was always a fantasy. He is a kid who will a good facilitator and doesn't need his jackass ignorant father putting more pressure on him.

 

[Sprowl]

I'm impressed by his court vision and unselfishness -- I think he will make his teammates better in time, and he is already entertaining. That odd release on the three-point shot, however, only works going to his left, and good NBA defenders will crowd that side and force him to drive, where his loose handle will force him to give up the ball before he gets to the rim.

 

[luckiestman]

If I'm being negative, the small sample size I've seen of him, he can't shoot, can't dribble, can't jump, and he is slow. He can see the floor though and he can make all the passes.

 

[HowBoutDemSox]

If I'm being negative, the small sample size I've seen of him, he can't shoot, can't dribble, can't jump, and he is slow. He can see the floor though and he can make all the passes.

He skipped the combine so we don't have a vertical leap measurement for him that I saw, but, again being negative, he doesn't seem to be above average athletically for an NBA point guard; this may be an unfair example, but he doesn't really get much vertical leap on this block by Beal:

 

[LondonSox]

As expected Ball would be better not being asked to be primary creator in the half court.

 

[Tony C]

pretty interesting mix of stat/scouting observations on Ball, here:

http://insider.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/21257838/is-lakers-rookie-lonzo-ball-already-exceeding-expectations

 

[reggiecleveland]

They are 3-4 now and have looked decent, even good at times. It is possible this team is in the 30+ win category

 

[Cesar Crespo]

They are 3-4 now and have looked decent, even good at times. It is possible this team is in the 30+ win category

Right now, every team in the league looks like a 30+ win team minus the Mavs, Kings, Hawks and Bulls. Even the Suns are 4-4 and have looked a lot better recently. Booker is actually playing defense and distributing the ball. It's still really early and some of the bad teams haven't exposed themselves yet.

I'd prefer to get the Lakers pick this year, but I'm not going to be too upset with the Kings pick. They have some interesting pieces, but none are game changing. Fox has a chance to get there.

 

[LondonSox]

The hawks aren't even that bad, and the pacers seem to be out of any tanking too. Think the Lakers will be right around the could / could not play out area, which would be fun.

 

[cheech13]

I've heard at least two well-respected NBA journalists cite that the shorter offseason has been impacting last year's playoff teams and benefiting those that didn't make it. That's certainly an interesting explanation for some of the weird records we've seen so far and probably bears watching over the next few weeks as some of these guys play themselves into shape and find rhythm with their new teammates.

 

[HowBoutDemSox]

Lonzo with 0 points on 0/2 shooting, and Lillard isn't exactly known as a top defender for a point guard.

 

[Devizier]

Larry Nance is a significant loss for the Lakers

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Lakers may have gotten a top 3 guy in last year's draft - only not at pick 2. ;-)

 

[Koufax]

Are you referring to Kyle Kuzma?

 

[Cellar-Door]

Lonzo with 0 points on 0/2 shooting, and Lillard isn't exactly known as a top defender for a point guard.

And it was his best plus minus game of the year. The less Lonzo touches the ball the better the Lakers are. Their Ortg is 26.4 points better with Lonzo on the bench. Without him that's a pretty good team. If he gets injured Celtics won't get the pick

 

[HowBoutDemSox]

Some fun stats:

— It was the first time Ball failed to score in 44 combined games at UCLA and with the Lakers.

— It was the first time this season that a starting NBA point guard played at least 25 minutes yet failed to score.

— It was the first time this season that a first-round 2017 draft pick played at least 15 minutes yet failed to score.

— The last top five pick to play at least 28 minutes in a rookie-season game and fail to score was Dikembe Mutombo in 1992.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/early-lead/wp/2017/11/03/lonzo-balls-offensive-drought-continues-with-scoreless-outing-against-the-blazers/?utm_term=.cddf6cb3e9c7

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Are you referring to Kyle Kuzma?

Yes.

If you're into this sort of thing, Kuzma is ranked 3rd in PER right now, minimum 10 mpg. http://insider.espn.com/nba/hollinger/statistics/_/position/rookies

Theis would be 5th.

 

[DJnVa]

Outside of that one game against the Suns--before the Suns made their moves--Lonzo is averaging 6.3 ppg, shooting 27.4% from the floor, and 25% from three.

He hasn't made it to the FT line in 4 games.

 

[Koufax]

Fulz is last.

 

[jmm57]

Some fun stats:



https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/early-lead/wp/2017/11/03/lonzo-balls-offensive-drought-continues-with-scoreless-outing-against-the-blazers/?utm_term=.cddf6cb3e9c7

I thought for sure Anthony Bennett had done it, but nope. He just had 3 consecutive scoreless games of 13, 13, 10 minutes. Than later games of 6, 9, 6, 9, 3, 7, 5, 11, 8, 1, 12 minutes while being held scoreless.

Also went 1-21 in his first 76 minutes over 7 games. Awesome.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

I don't watch that much basketball anymore but it seems to me like Lonzo's outside shot is going to make or break him. That's obviously true for a lot of guards but in his case its especially important because of the rest of his skill set. If defenders aren't respecting his shot, he's never going to get by anyone off the dribble in half court sets given his athletic limitations and its going to be harder for him to use his passing skills against defenses that aren't worried about him getting into the lane. And if he doesn't develop a more reliable outside shot, then he isn't going to be much use without the ball either. So where is his value going to come from? He is a great passer with special vision who thrives in transition and unsettled situations but while that might make you a great player in college its not going to be enough at the NBA level.

 

[LondonSox]

I don't watch that much basketball anymore but it seems to me like Lonzo's outside shot is going to make or break him. That's obviously true for a lot of guards but in his case its especially important because of the rest of his skill set. If defenders aren't respecting his shot, he's never going to get by anyone off the dribble in half court sets given his athletic limitations and its going to be harder for him to use his passing skills against defenses that aren't worried about him getting into the lane. And if he doesn't develop a more reliable outside shot, then he isn't going to be much use without the ball either. So where is his value going to come from? He is a great passer with special vision who thrives in transition and unsettled situations but while that might make you a great player in college its not going to be enough at the NBA level.

This has always been my take.
He is going to struggle in half court as primary option unless his shot is lights out. I think given the release it's difficult to shoot going one way and seems very blockable.
He would be better as an off guard and secondary creator in the half court who is your first option in transition and broken court

This also worried me for him, if he had a bad run with his shot when do you consider changing it? It's not worth it if it is working, but how long do you give him to struggle before you think about his ugly form?

I wouldn't this year personally, but the Lakers haven't shown a lot of patience with anything

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

This has always been my take.
He is going to struggle in half court as primary option unless his shot is lights out. I think given the release it's difficult to shoot going one way and seems very blockable.
He would be better as an off guard and secondary creator in the half court who is your first option in transition and broken court

This also worried me for him, if he had a bad run with his shot when do you consider changing it? It's not worth it if it is working, but how long do you give him to struggle before you think about his ugly form?

I wouldn't this year personally, but the Lakers haven't shown a lot of patience with anything

That's a good question about changing his shooting form. I would think that an offseason change would be better. When you rely so much on muscle memory and instinct, it's got to be incredibly hard to make that kind of change mid season.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

UCLA tried to change his shot when they were touring (IIRC) Australia. That experiment didn't last long.

 

[oumbi]

Just as an update, with 10 minutes left in the fourth quarter tonight, Lonzo is 2 for 12 from the field.

I have not watched him at all this season. For those who have, is his piss poor shooting the result of people playing hard defense on him? Or, is it just poor shooting? Or something else?

 

[nighthob]

Lonzo was born to be the third star on a team. Unfortunately for him the Lakers are two stars shy and teams can afford to focus on him defensively.They should have ponied up Ingram for Paul George.

 

[lovegtm]

Just as an update, with 10 minutes left in the fourth quarter tonight, Lonzo is 2 for 12 from the field.

I have not watched him at all this season. For those who have, is his piss poor shooting the result of people playing hard defense on him? Or, is it just poor shooting? Or something else?

He has below-average athleticism, so he's not able to get many high-percentage shots in the paint. At UCLA, he shot well at the rim, but if you watched the tape, it was basically all backdoor cuts and open dunks.

He's never been a good mid-range shooter, and his 3 takes a lot of space to get off. In college, he often had to step way back behind the line to get separation, and if you do that at the NBA 3-point line, you're getting close to halfcourt.

His passing skills are very very real, and he's a smart player and a good team defender, so I don't want to say he's garbage. But the shooting issues are also very real, and were fairly predictable.

 

[DJnVa]

He can't even get close to the rim--he's 0-1 from the line in the last 5 games.

 

[NYCSox]

It's going to wind up being the seventh pick isn't it?

 

[Montana Fan]

He can't even get close to the rim--he's 0-1 from the line in the last 5 games.

Git back in yo lane DrewDawg.

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

Withholding all judgment about this team until the competition and especially the travel ramps up. Just 3 road games in 9 and all a short flight from LA. Young team, flying high at home. East coast swing next week is their first legit test.

 

[scottyno]

It's going to wind up being the seventh pick isn't it?

Silver lining is that the Kings are still dreadful if the pick doesn't convey this year. The Lakers at least have some pieces who are supposed to be decent.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Lakers DRtg is 103.53, which is 6th in the league right now. Which appears to be significant because they've played some good offenses thus far: Clippers (2nd), Wizards (3rd), Raptors (5th), and Blazers (10th).

I haven't watched any Lakers game but they look like have good enough size that they can switch the PnR. According to BRef, their most notable defensive stats are: 2nd in the league in steals; 6th in 3P% against; and 11th in opponent turnovers.

 

[InstaFace]

Big game tonight, against the equally-awful Phoenix Suns. You want to get the edge, the inside track to high lotteryville, you gotta find a way to lose tonight.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Phoenix is awful and on the second half of a back-to-back, having given up 90 in the first half to Houston last night. I'll be shocked if the Lakers don't win this one.

PP joked on NBA Countdown that he could walk onto the court tonight and get 25 against Phoenix. That sums it up.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Phoenix is awful and on the second half of a back-to-back, having given up 90 in the first half to Houston last night. I'll be shocked if the Lakers don't win this one.

PP joked on NBA Countdown that he could walk onto the court tonight and get 25 against Phoenix. That sums it up.

Yup. Suns are truly awful. All these high picks and no one even near a future franchise guy.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Yup. Suns are truly awful. All these high picks and no one even near a future franchise guy.

They have some nice young pieces but they don't really fit well together (at least yet) and outside of Booker, are incredibly raw. I kinda feel bad for Booker, imagine what he could do if they had spacing? He's improved his overall game and he's also been putting more effort in on the defensive end but he's still pretty bad on that end.

Chriss, Bender and Jackson all have considerable upside too. They are in basically the same spot as the Kings. Lots of decent, young talent but as of yet, no centerpiece.

 

[BigSoxFan]

They have some nice young pieces but they don't really fit well together (at least yet) and outside of Booker, are incredibly raw. I kinda feel bad for Booker, imagine what he could do if they had spacing? He's improved his overall game and he's also been putting more effort in on the defensive end but he's still pretty bad on that end.

Chriss, Bender and Jackson all have considerable upside too. They are in basically the same spot as the Kings. Lots of decent, young talent but as of yet, no centerpiece.

In the NBA, you don’t have a centerpiece, you’re done. And I don’t think Chriss, Bender, or Jackson ever get there. Their centerpiece probably comes this year.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

In the NBA, you don’t have a centerpiece, you’re done. And I don’t think Chriss, Bender, or Jackson ever get there. Their centerpiece probably comes this year.

As bad as the franchise is, they haven't screwed up their future and they'll be in a good spot this off season. They'll have the room to sign a guy to the max and the pieces/contracts to trade for another. It could be a quick turn around if things break the right way but it's Phoenix, so they won't.


edit: redundancy.

 

[BigSoxFan]

They have the room to sign a guy to the max and the pieces/contracts to trade for another. As bad as the franchise is, they haven't screwed up their future and they'll be in a good spot this off season. They'll have the room to sign a guy to the max and the pieces/contracts to trade for another. It could be a quick turn around if things break the right way but it's Phoenix, so they won't.

Agreed there. If they can get Bagley/Ayton and sign a max guy, they’ll at least be on the right track. I’d like to see some of those young guys in better situations to see what we really have in them. Except for Jackson. He can rot there.

 

[InstaFace]

There isn't a Phoenix thread, so let me ask: what's wrong with Jackson?

 

[DavidTai]

If you were tracking the draft, Jackson reportedly refused to work out for Boston, then agreed to it at some point (after the Celtics traded down to 3rd), only to cancel the workout while Ainge and Stevens were in mid-flight.

Rumblings was that he (or his agent) was working with the Phoenix GM to keep him away from Boston because he didn't think he'd get much playing time there with the way the wings picture was at the time (Hayward, Crowder, etc.)

 

[Cesar Crespo]

There isn't a Phoenix thread, so let me ask: what's wrong with Jackson?

He has alligator arms and his shot was always in question, in large part because of his FT performance. I'm sure he'll adjust but I'm glad we didn't draft him. He's had a few solid games but struggles with consistency like a lot of rookies.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Is there a reason Ingram is doing his best Fultz impression by avoiding 3 point shots? It goes to show you a 80/195 .410 sample from 3 doesn't mean much when it's coupled with 116/170 .682 from the line.

For his NBA career, he's 62-209, 297. Jaylen Brown is 74-210, .352. Brown went from 1.7 attempts to 4.7 so far this year while Ingram went from 2.4 to 1.5.

 

[Jeff Van GULLY]

He has alligator arms and his shot was always in question, in large part because of his FT performance. I'm sure he'll adjust but I'm glad we didn't draft him. He's had a few solid games but struggles with consistency like a lot of rookies.

Off court issues too.

 

[Sprowl]

Shine on, you crazy diamond... Suns beat Lakers 122-113. Kuzma scores 30, Ball 6 (but 5 steals). Booker lays down 33.

 

[InstaFace]

A Lakers loss always feels like a win, but doubly so this year. I'm a big fan of having a reason to kick them when they're down.

 

[JCizzle]

Lonzo was getting dragged on Twitter for just flat out walking away from his team during a scrum last night. These things are dumb because it's never a real fight, but still not the best look.