The Super Bowl Thread

[Hoodie Sleeves]

I'm curious as to why people think he bungled the concussion thing.

Concussions are an existential problem for the NFL - they're intrinsic to the game. Even lineman have significantly higher rates of dementia/etc because of thousands of microconcussions over their careers - runningbacks and WRs get the big hits to the head that draw penalties, but they also regularly get concussions on plays where there isn't head contact because of the changes in direction/momentum that occur when you stop rapidly. Defenders get them for the same reasons. Every phase of the game causes brain damage.

There's no way to 'handle' that. They can make adjustments to the game and marginally lower rates (and they're doing that), but it's all window dressing - the simple fact is that football destroys players brains, and the fact that you're talking about Roger Goodel as the biggest problem the NFL has is proof of how damn good of a sin-eater he is.

 

[phenweigh]

I know that and didn't think that was an issue.
I just dont think her income has anything to do with Brady being willing to take "only" 15M/yr instead of 25 (or whatever the numbers are). As I said, she could never ever work a day in her life, or have never worked one, and the Brady progeny will have been loaded for generations, even at his "reduced" salary.

I'll add that without knowing their pre-nup, it's hard to make a call that her income has any bearing on his financial decision making.

 

[drbretto]

More of a lamb than a goat.

They weren't blaming him for anything (by which I mean, they weren't using him as a scapegoat for some larger issue).
They were sacrificing him.

But, that doesn't rhyme or anything!

And yes, I know that's not a rhyme. And you're right, it's not a strict scapegoat situation, but it was a little bit. The league put all their jealousy and ineptitude on him. I do believe they were totally using his "cheating" as an excuse for their own ineptitude.

But, I wasn't trying to make a huge point, just a quip

 

[PedroKsBambino]

I'm curious as to why people think he bungled the concussion thing.

Concussions are an existential problem for the NFL - they're intrinsic to the game. Even lineman have significantly higher rates of dementia/etc because of thousands of microconcussions over their careers - runningbacks and WRs get the big hits to the head that draw penalties, but they also regularly get concussions on plays where there isn't head contact because of the changes in direction/momentum that occur when you stop rapidly. Defenders get them for the same reasons. Every phase of the game causes brain damage.

There's no way to 'handle' that. They can make adjustments to the game and marginally lower rates (and they're doing that), but it's all window dressing - the simple fact is that football destroys players brains, and the fact that you're talking about Roger Goodel as the biggest problem the NFL has is proof of how damn good of a sin-eater he is.

On the contrary, I said concussions were the NFL's biggest problem. I agree it's an existential problem---and I think the best reaction is to legitimately try and understand that problem and address it. I do not think spending $100 million on fake science studies to deny the truth is a good approach; I do not think trying to change rules at the margin in ways that are not effective (like the kickoff changes) is helpful. I think in both cases---and in fact across most of the NFL actions about concussions---the goal has been to get casual fans to believe NFL is 'doing something' and I think that's not the right objective. They are using the tobacco playbook (and many of the same advisors) and I don't think that's how you create sustainable credibility.

What would I do? I would do legit studies and frame the issue as broader brain trauma and how to recover from it (rather than pretending it doesn't exist or isn't linked to football). And I'd be working to actively understand what changes would have real impact on the concussion rate, and thinking through how and whether I might move in that direction. I'd spend more on safety equipment research than NFL does. It is, of course, possible the NFL has done some of this and the results were so bad that they have adopted the tobacco approach and if so, history will prove Goodell right and me wrong. I just don't think that's likely the case.

 

[Al Zarilla]

Any chance we could break the Goodell chatter into it's own thread?

I'll second that. This feels like two years ago with all the Goodell talk. Maybe the SB thread was started too early. Yeah, yeah, I don't have to read it.

 

[edmunddantes]

Well... there also isn't some crazy overarching hate for foe or deflategate saga to help fill the space...

It's going to be a long time waiting for this game to hurry up and get here.

 

[djbayko]

That's easy money. What site is that?

Bovada. I normally go to other sites for silly props like this because Bovada just copies them once the odds have settled and adds a ton more juice, but Bovada's the only site I've seen this particular bet on.

It doesn't look like Roger shook any of their hands on stage in 2015. He handed the trophy to Kraft and ducked out quickly.

 

[johnmd20]

I'll second that. This feels like two years ago with all the Goodell talk. Maybe the SB thread was started too early. Yeah, yeah, I don't have to read it.

It was actually two years ago this Saturday when Belichick gave his Mona Lisa Vito press conference. Feels like 30 years ago, of course.

 

[simplyeric]

But, that doesn't rhyme or anything!

And yes, I know that's not a rhyme. And you're right, it's not a strict scapegoat situation, but it was a little bit. The league put all their jealousy and ineptitude on him. I do believe they were totally using his "cheating" as an excuse for their own ineptitude.

But, I wasn't trying to make a huge point, just a quip

no quips allowed. This is deadly serious!

“The fire and wood are here,” Exponent said, “but where is the lamb for the burnt offering?”
Wells answered, “Goodell himself will provide the GOAT for the burnt offering, my son.”

 

[Al Zarilla]

It was actually two years ago this Saturday when Belichick gave his Mona Lisa Vito press conference. Feels like 30 years ago, of course.

It does feel like a long time ago, and one of those "where were you when this was happening" kind of day.

 

[Marciano490]

How many times will "deflate" or "deflategate" be mentioned on TV during live broadcast? Over 1.5 Even

I like this one too.

 

[djbayko]

I like this one too.

Other sites have had this at 2.5 before Bovada stole it. I took the under.

 

[Curt S Loew]

It does feel like a long time ago, and one of those "where were you when this was happening" kind of day.

I'll never forget it. I was actually watching "My Cousin Vinny" on Starz for the umpteenth time when the news broke in.

 

[Marciano490]

Other sites have had this at 2.5 before Bovada stole it. I took the under.

No way, man. It's at least two.

 

[simplyeric]

Other sites have had this at 2.5 before Bovada stole it. I took the under.

What would happen if Deflategate came up twice, and then later on one of the guys said "Don't forget about the scandal from a couple of years ago: defla..." and the other guy cut him off so he couldn't finish the word?
You can't score half a point.
But you can say half a word.

 

[drbretto]

I'll never forget it. I was actually watching "My Cousin Vinny" on Starz for the umpteenth time when the news broke in.

Yeah, so was Belichick

 

[Bowhemian]

I'm curious as to why people think he bungled the concussion thing.

Because he is still bungling it.

In the second quarter, Moore took a brutal blow to the head from Steelers linebacker Bud Dupree, which left the Dolphins’ signal caller on the turf for quite some time. While the team’s medical staff did follow the initial steps appropriately, a documented symptom Moore received as a result of the hit was not recognized. According to the press release, Moore was bleeding from the mouth, which requires further evaluation under the league’s protocol. Despite the incomplete test, the NFL deemed that competitive issues were not a factor in the handling of Moore, nor did he demonstrate further concussion symptoms after returning to action or after the game. As a result of the Dolphins’ negligent examination, the league encouraged the team to revisit and review the concussion protocol, as well as additional education if necessary. While the Dolphins effectively received a slap on the wrist this time around, the team was notified that a future infraction of the rules will result in harsher discipline.

http://nesn.com/2017/01/nfl-says-dolphins-didnt-follow-concussion-protocol-after-matt-moore-hit/

 

[Curt S Loew]

Yeah, so was Belichick

Exactly.

 

[djbayko]

No way, man. It's at least two.

I think you'll be surprised. Announcers other than Announcers tend to tread carefully around stuff like this. There are ways to talk about the subject without constantly saying "Deflategate". And Al Michaels isn't there to intentionally hit the over.

Also, the number is only for live broadcast from kickoff to final whistle. pregame, halftime packages, and announcer reminiscences after a win won't count.

What would happen if Deflategate came up twice, and then later on one of the guys said "Don't forget about the scandal from a couple of years ago: defla..." and the other guy cut him off so he couldn't finish the word?
You can't score half a point.
But you can say half a word.

That shouldn't count for several reasons, including the fact that you don't know for sure what word he was saying half of until he finishes it...and everyone knows that's not the purpose of the number being 1/2. But bookmakers can decide whatever they want.

 

[simplyeric]

I think you'll be surprised. Announcers other than Announcers tend to tread carefully around stuff like this. There are ways to talk about the subject without constantly saying "Deflategate". And Al Michaels isn't there to intentionally hit the over.

Also, the number is only for live broadcast from kickoff to final whistle. pregame, halftime packages, and announcer reminiscences after a win won't count.



That shouldn't count for several reasons, including the fact that you don't know for sure what word he was saying half of until he finishes it...and everyone knows that's not the purpose of the number being 1/2. But bookmakers can decide whatever they want.

oh I know...it's just an idle curiosity. "Joe, I was thinking at halftime about that whole scandal with Brady and the air pressure in the footballs, and how it was so cleverly named in the manner of "Watergate", which is the style of the times, so that everyone referred to it as Deflatega---" (speaker drops dead).

I'm claiming 3/4 of a "point" on that one, if I have the over.

(I'm just messing around.)

 

[axx]

I'll add that without knowing their pre-nup, it's hard to make a call that her income has any bearing on his financial decision making.

Basically my feeling is that most other players, even the elite ones, feel like they have to get as much as they can. Especially in a league where even the great ones don't typically play that long. Because of Giselle Brady probably doesn't feel like he needs to. Even with the pre-nup.

BTW, on the prop bets, not a gambler but I would go after Trump mentioned over 1.5. Figure that the Fox announcing crew will mention him at least once; and Lady Gaga I'm sure will mention him. Deflategate will likely be mentioned but probably only once.

 

[Marciano490]

oh I know...it's just an idle curiosity. "Joe, I was thinking at halftime about that whole scandal with Brady and the air pressure in the footballs, and how it was so cleverly named in the manner of "Watergate", which is the style of the times, so that everyone referred to it as Deflatega---" (speaker drops dead).

I'm claiming 3/4 of a "point" on that one, if I have the over.

(I'm just messing around.)

Please don't ruin gambling for me.....

 

[Blue Monkey]

Brady 6 on NFLN 9ET tonight

 

[djbayko]

Basically my feeling is that most other players, even the elite ones, feel like they have to get as much as they can. Especially in a league where even the great ones don't typically play that long. Because of Giselle Brady probably doesn't feel like he needs to. Even with the pre-nup.

BTW, on the prop bets, not a gambler but I would go after Trump mentioned over 1.5. Figure that the Fox announcing crew will mention him at least once; and Lady Gaga I'm sure will mention him. Deflategate will likely be mentioned but probably only once.

Halftime doesn't count. There's a separate prop for Lady Gaga saying Trump. Always gotta read the fine print.

 

[mulluysavage]

They might be able to grind it out with an up tempo offense. This is where having both Gronk and Bennett would have been enormous. Keep both of them in and pound Blout play after play, up tempo. Or if the Falcons go heavy, then split the two TEs wide. Going up tempo would prevent Atlanta from substituting.

Oh well. Gronk isn't gonna play. So your question is a good one.

Could Bennett/Lengel be just good enough to make this a top-choice strategy though?

 

[mulluysavage]

Floyd or Mitchell? Whose the better blocker?
Patriots are well stocked in good WR blockers (Edelman and Hogan being the 2 obvious ones) so even with 3 wide (in tight for instance) they should be able to run.

I'm going to say Floyd the veteran. Mitchell dropped a couple of big passes vs PIT

 

[Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt]

Mitchell knocked the rust off is my rationalization. He has Brady's trust - and knows the playbook - to a greater degree than Floyd. IMO, if he's healthy, he plays, and Floyd likely doesn't.

 

[54thMA]

Halftime doesn't count. There's a separate prop for Lady Gaga saying Trump. Always gotta read the fine print.

Please Lady Gaga for the love of God; DO NOT use the halftime show of the Super Bowl to carpet bomb me with your political views, I'm begging you not to do it.

Enough is enough with this crap and the fucking guy hasn't been in office a week yet.

 

[simplyeric]

Please don't ruin gambling for me.....

That was easier than I thought it would be...but only slightly.

 

[Reverend]

Please Lady Gaga for the love of God; DO NOT use the halftime show of the Super Bowl to carpet bomb me with your political views, I'm begging you not to do it.

Enough is enough with this crap and the fucking guy hasn't been in office a week yet.

Just go make nachos or something, man.

 

[Conigliaro's Potential]

How much crap does Belichick deserve for this pre-draft scouting report of Julio Jones?

All things considered, even knowing what we know now about Jones, I'm not sure I would have made that trade with the Browns. But I think it's fair to say Jonathan Baldwin is not as good as Julio Jones.

 

[dcmissle]

BB undoubtedly erred in his assessment of JJ. Everyone in Atlanta, I'm sure, is pleased that Tom D. decided not to follow BB's advice.

That said, I'm skeptical that BB's advice would change with the benefit of hindsight. He views WRs as components of a Swiss Army knife, assembled, if not easily, then from a stockroom that is pretty amply filled.

It's a basic philosophical orientation that I don't believe will change and should not have "right" or "wrong" attached to it. Just his way of doing business and assembling a team.

 

[Stitch01]

How much crap does Belichick deserve for this pre-draft scouting report of Julio Jones?

All things considered, even knowing what we know now about Jones, I'm not sure I would have made that trade with the Browns. But I think it's fair to say Jonathan Baldwin is not as good as Julio Jones.

Not very much. He was very wrong, but GM's miss on players all the time. Its the nature of drafting and why trading a ransom for one player is risky.

 

[dcmissle]

And there is no "subplot" -- I'm getting a kick out of mediots bursting blood vessels trying to gin up faux controversies in a game played by two no-nonsense teams respectful of each other and professional in their approach. (Look no further than BB's remarks about needing an extra week, and Shanahan's remarks about the Patriots' defense). Relatedly, I'm pleased that Chris Collinsworth will be nowhere near a mic.

 

[dbn]

Please Lady Gaga for the love of God; DO NOT use the halftime show of the Super Bowl to carpet bomb me with your political views, I'm begging you not to do it.

Enough is enough with this crap and the fucking guy hasn't been in office a week yet.

He hasn't been in office a week yet and has still managed to ruin almost a dozen BbTL threads.

 

[Hoya81]

Hard to say. They made the NFCCG in JJ year 2, but the wheels came off in years 3 and 4. They fired Smith and very nearly fired Dimitroff.

 

[Curt S Loew]

He hasn't been in office a week yet and has still managed to ruin almost a dozen BbTL threads.

And will continue if we keep replying.

 

[H78]

I think it's really bizarre that people are doing victory laps for Atlanta with the JJ decision. Even seeing how good of a player he is today, I STILL wouldn't have given up what they gave up for him. The reason why is what I think you'll see in the Super Bowl: you can take one great player away, but it's much harder to take away several potentially "good" ones.

It just looks good in retrospect because the picks didn't amount to much when compared to JJ. But it could have very easily gone the other way if the decision-making when it came to who to draft was placed in better hands.

 

[Saints Rest]

How much crap does Belichick deserve for this pre-draft scouting report of Julio Jones?

All things considered, even knowing what we know now about Jones, I'm not sure I would have made that trade with the Browns. But I think it's fair to say Jonathan Baldwin is not as good as Julio Jones.

Rodney Harrison would have that photo enlarged and plastered all over the locker room, halls, etc.

On the flip side, I don't know if extra emotion helps a WR as much as it does a defensive player or even an OL. What was Forrest Whitaker's character's name in Fast Times?

 

[H78]

Honestly, the more I think about it - if Jones were a Patriot today and someone offered you two first round picks, a second round pick, and fourth round pick for him...would you do it?

I totally would. I don't think any one player has that kind of value when you're building a TEAM. The reason Jones is looking so good right now is because Atlanta also developed a running game. It's that secondary element that's keeping defenses honest in their coverage of Jones. Without having achieved that (as they hadn't in many previous years), this deal doesn't look nearly as good as it does today (which, again, I still don't think is as good as people are making it out to be).

 

[Saints Rest]

Honestly, the more I think about it - if Jones were a Patriot today and someone offered you two first round picks, a second round pick, and fourth round pick for him...would you do it?

I totally would. I don't think any one player has that kind of value when you're building a TEAM. The reason Jones is looking so good right now is because Atlanta also developed a running game. It's that secondary element that's keeping defenses honest in their coverage of Jones. Without having achieved that (as they hadn't in many previous years), this deal doesn't look nearly as good as it does today (which, again, I still don't think is as good as people are making it out to be).

Or the flip side: would you, if you were the GM of any team, trade that haul of draft picks for any player, let alone a WR? Jones, as good as he is, is unlikely to make even the top 10 list of best/most valuable players (using the term literally, not as in the award, but literally the players who provide the most value). And that doesn't even include the contract side of things which I think would be part of any value analysis of a trade.

That said, I do think it is safe to say that JJ ended up being WAY better/more valuable than the four elections that the Browns made with their side of that trade. But that was likely Cleveland being Cleveland. Look at what Belichick did with the rough equivalent of those four picks that year:
1st Round (17 overall) -- Nate Solder
1st Round (28 overall) -- traded for what became Shane Vereen that year and Chandler Jones the next year. The Saints picked Mark Ingram with the 28 pick.
2nd Round (33) -- Ras-I Dowling.
2nd round (60) -- traded for what became Steven Ridley and Marcus Cannon.
4th round no pick.

JJ is the best single player of that group, but over the last 5 years, would you rather have had what JJ provided or the combined contributions of Solder, Vereen, Cannon, Ridley and Chandler Jones?

 

[joe dokes]

Honestly, the more I think about it - if Jones were a Patriot today and someone offered you two first round picks, a second round pick, and fourth round pick for him...would you do it?

I totally would. I don't think any one player has that kind of value when you're building a TEAM. The reason Jones is looking so good right now is because Atlanta also developed a running game. It's that secondary element that's keeping defenses honest in their coverage of Jones. Without having achieved that (as they hadn't in many previous years), this deal doesn't look nearly as good as it does today (which, again, I still don't think is as good as people are making it out to be).

One way to look at it is that it took 6 of Jones's seasons to get this far. Do they get this far sooner with all those draft picks and not-Jones?

 

[pappymojo]

Please Lady Gaga for the love of God; DO NOT use the halftime show of the Super Bowl to carpet bomb me with your political views, I'm begging you not to do it.

Enough is enough with this crap and the fucking guy hasn't been in office a week yet.

I'm hoping she dedicates Til It Happens To You to Goodell and Mara.

 

[The Needler]

Or the flip side: would you, if you were the GM of any team, trade that haul of draft picks for any player, let alone a WR? Jones, as good as he is, is unlikely to make even the top 10 list of best/most valuable players (using the term literally, not as in the award, but literally the players who provide the most value). And that doesn't even include the contract side of things which I think would be part of any value analysis of a trade.

Well, he made football-reference's top 10 list in approximate value this year and last.

 

[H78]

One way to look at it is that it took 6 of Jones's seasons to get this far. Do they get this far sooner with all those draft picks and not-Jones?

My thinking is if they draft reasonably well - probably. At the very least, they'd still be competitive if you can assume that Matty Ice still develops into 80% of the player he is today with Jones.

I think it's silly for people in the media to see the team reach the SB and conclude "See, the Jones deal was the correct call! BB was wrong!" because there could have been a slew of other player combinations without that trade that could have easily ended up with the same result. Remember: they were only 11-5 this season in a pretty mediocre division. 11-5 is what the Patriots did with Matt Cassel and an aging defense, but it happened to be in a year when another 11-5 team in their division edged them out for the playoff spot.

The Falcons are a prolific offense - there's no doubt about that. Julio is a big reason why. But people are talking about them like they've been world beaters - collectively, as a team - all season as opposed to a team that beat a good, but not great Seattle team at home and then a decimated Green Bay team with a horrible defense at home.

11-5 and a couple of home playoff wins = media questioning BB's judgment. Yet, on the other side of the field, stands his 14-2 team that's been destroying teams all season with their QB out for 25% of it and Chris Hogan, a former lacrosse player that not many people outside of BB believed in and was subsequently picked off the scrap heap, as their version of Julio Jones.

It's like - fuck off, sports media. If the Falcons lose, do you start writing stories about how it would have been nice to have the defensive pieces to contain the Patriots, but so many lost draft picks over the last few years limited their ability to do so? I'm guessing not.

 

[Conigliaro's Potential]

I think it's really bizarre that people are doing victory laps for Atlanta with the JJ decision. Even seeing how good of a player he is today, I STILL wouldn't have given up what they gave up for him. The reason why is what I think you'll see in the Super Bowl: you can take one great player away, but it's much harder to take away several potentially "good" ones.

It just looks good in retrospect because the picks didn't amount to much when compared to JJ. But it could have very easily gone the other way if the decision-making when it came to who to draft was placed in better hands.

I'm much more inclined to agree than disagree with you. That's a metric ton of potential talent the Falcons gave up...and if you consider how well the Falcons offense has done without Julio in several games this year, then add the extra players they could have had without Julio, that team would be even more frightening for the Patriots to face next weekend.

That said, if the relevant acronym in baseball is TINSTAAPP, I think in football there's no such thing as a prospect, full stop. How much of scouting and drafting is science, and how much of it is a complete lottery? If you really think Julio is a sure thing and exactly what your offense needs, and compare that to a likely haul of one good player, one borderline starter, one backup and two busts...well, what do you choose then? Is one likely great player worth that in a trade? It's a fascinating discussion, and there's not necessarily a right answer - but of course you do have to pick the right guy for this to be a debate at all. Herschel Walker was ultimately a good player, not a great player; that makes Dallas' trade for him foolish.

(I definitely don't think there's anything for Atlanta to crow about, by the way. The ends not justifying the means and all that.)

 

[Bowhemian]

Rodney Harrison would have that photo enlarged and plastered all over the locker room, halls, etc.

On the flip side, I don't know if extra emotion helps a WR as much as it does a defensive player or even an OL. What was Forrest Whitaker's character's name in Fast Times?

Charles Jefferson

 

[CR67dream]

Please Lady Gaga for the love of God; DO NOT use the halftime show of the Super Bowl to carpet bomb me with your political views, I'm begging you not to do it.

Enough is enough with this crap and the fucking guy hasn't been in office a week yet.

DO NOT use this thread about the Super Bowl to go down this road. Enough is enough is right.
Let's just say that everyone has fair warning.

 

[Ed Hillel]

Let me get this back on track.

Shannon Sharpe (THE Shannon Sharpe) just said Brady is the greatest QB ever and will be the single greatest player in NFL history with a win. Says there won't even be a debate.

That's how good Tom Brady is, folks. He even shut Shannon Sharpe up.

 

[Hoodie Sleeves]

Honestly, the more I think about it - if Jones were a Patriot today and someone offered you two first round picks, a second round pick, and fourth round pick for him...would you do it?.

I think the only reason anyone thinks that was a good trade is because the Browns are so predictably terrible at drafting.

With the first 1st round pick, they drafted Phillip Taylor - who was out of the league in 3 years. The next three DL off the board were Cameron Jordan, Muhammed Wilkerson, and Cameron Heyward.

They used the 2nd round pick to pick Greg Little at #59. The next WR off the board was Randall Cobb (although, to the Browns credit, he was the only one of about 6 WRs in the 2nd who are still in the league). There were a whole bunch of talented 2nd round defensive players though.


With the 2nd 1st round pick, they went and picked Brandon Weeden. Next couple picks?Riley Reiff,David DeCastro, Dont'a Hightower and Whitney Mercilus.

People look at that trade and say "Well, Atlanta got a stud, and Cleveland got a pile of trash" (and that's true), but that's because Cleveland consistently drafts terribly.

The question is, is Atlanta a better team with Julio Jones, than they are with players of the caliber of Wilkerson, Cobb, and Hightower? (or two of those 3) I think if they don't make that trade, they've got a slightly worse offense, and a whole lot better defense. (admittedly, a lot of that's hindsight)