The premature re-signing Lester thread

[Hee Sox Choi]

Theo's a smart guy.  Signing pitchers over 30 usually doesn't turn out very well.  I don't think it makes sense for Theo to go 6 or 7 years on Lester.  The Cubs will be OK this year but it may be another 2-3 years before that Cubs team is rolling and now Lester is 33-34.  It's smarter to sign some cheaper mid-range guys and go big next year when Jordan Zimmerman, Cueto, Fister, Iwakuma, Latos, Porcello, Price, Shark, etc. are available.  Most of those guys are younger or can be had on shorter deals (Fister, Iwakuma).
 
Lester should be much better for the first 3 years of that contract, a time when the Cubs will still be on the rise but not ready to win it all.  To me, it's not a very smart move to waste the first couple of years of Lester on a .500 team when you can sign younger and equal pitchers the following year.  And Theo's much smarter than me, so I don't see the Cubs ultimately signing him.  But I do see the Cubs PRETENDING to be interested to jack up the price on the Red Sox because Theo knows the Sox will be one of the bigger spenders over the next few years and one of his main competitors for FA pitchers.  
 
NOTE: By pretending, I mean the Cubs would sign Lester if he comes cheap enough, but I think Theo wants to get the Sox or whomever to commit to that extra year because he knows it will help the Cubs in the long run by eliminating competition for FAs in the future.  

 

[benhogan]

7/133 with a player opt out after 4 years that you hope he takes.

Didn't we cover this?
 
The 'opt out' NEVER, I repeat NEVER, benefits the team unless they are bumping up against the salary cap.

 

[Darnell's Son]

Didn't we cover this?
 
The 'opt out' NEVER, I repeat NEVER, benefits the team unless they are bumping up against the salary cap.

We should probably rehash the subject.

 

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

Theo's a smart guy.  Signing pitchers over 30 usually doesn't turn out very well.  I don't think it makes sense for Theo to go 6 or 7 years on Lester.  The Cubs will be OK this year but it may be another 2-3 years before that Cubs team is rolling and now Lester is 33-34.  It's smarter to sign some cheaper mid-range guys and go big next year when Jordan Zimmerman, Cueto, Fister, Iwakuma, Latos, Porcello, Price, Shark, etc. are available.  Most of those guys are younger or can be had on shorter deals (Fister, Iwakuma).
 
Lester should be much better for the first 3 years of that contract, a time when the Cubs will still be on the rise but not ready to win it all.  To me, it's not a very smart move to waste the first couple of years of Lester on a .500 team when you can sign younger and equal pitchers the following year.  And Theo's much smarter than me, so I don't see the Cubs ultimately signing him.  But I do see the Cubs PRETENDING to be interested to jack up the price on the Red Sox because Theo knows the Sox will be one of the bigger spenders over the next few years and one of his main competitors for FA pitchers.  
 
NOTE: By pretending, I mean the Cubs would sign Lester if he comes cheap enough, but I think Theo wants to get the Sox or whomever to commit to that extra year because he knows it will help the Cubs in the long run by eliminating competition for FAs in the future.  

Theo is a smart guy, unless you look at his track record at signing free agents. His best multi year free agent contracts were J.D. Drew and John Lackey.

 

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

Didn't we cover this?
 
The 'opt out' NEVER, I repeat NEVER, benefits the team unless they are bumping up against the salary cap.

Except when it gives you a discount on the AAV of the deal. Lester at 19 mil per year is a decent enough contract for a guy getting a $100+ million contract. If he opts out, you get a number very close to the initial lowball offer.

 

[Doc Zero]

edit: disregard, misread .

 

[benhogan]

Except when it gives you a discount on the AAV of the deal. Lester at 19 mil per year is a decent enough contract for a guy getting a $100+ million contract. If he opts out, you get a number very close to the initial lowball offer.

why would he opt out with all the extra dollars over 19MM waiting for him?

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Theo is a smart guy, unless you look at his track record at signing free agents. His best multi year free agent contracts were J.D. Drew and John Lackey.

 
I suppose... if you eliminate David Ortiz, Bill Mueller, Kevin Millar, and Keith Foulke.

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

why would he opt out with all the extra dollars over 19MM waiting for him?

Because some other team will pay him more. But then why would the Red Sox want him to leave? Because the nature of the market means old players get more than they're worth in free agency. So why not just trade him and get something in the return? Because the player has 10/5 rights or insists on a no-trade clause. Didn't you say we'd been over this?

 

[benhogan]

Because some other team will pay him more. But then why would the Red Sox want him to leave? Because the nature of the market means old players get more than they're worth in free agency. So why not just trade him and get something in the return? Because the player has 10/5 rights or insists on a no-trade clause. Didn't you say we'd been over this?

yep, when he gets 10/5 rights in 2019 get back to me

 

[BarrettsHiddenBall]

Theo's a smart guy.  Signing pitchers over 30 usually doesn't turn out very well.  I don't think it makes sense for Theo to go 6 or 7 years on Lester.  The Cubs will be OK this year but it may be another 2-3 years before that Cubs team is rolling and now Lester is 33-34.  It's smarter to sign some cheaper mid-range guys and go big next year when Jordan Zimmerman, Cueto, Fister, Iwakuma, Latos, Porcello, Price, Shark, etc. are available.  Most of those guys are younger or can be had on shorter deals (Fister, Iwakuma).
 
Lester should be much better for the first 3 years of that contract, a time when the Cubs will still be on the rise but not ready to win it all.  To me, it's not a very smart move to waste the first couple of years of Lester on a .500 team when you can sign younger and equal pitchers the following year.  And Theo's much smarter than me, so I don't see the Cubs ultimately signing him.  But I do see the Cubs PRETENDING to be interested to jack up the price on the Red Sox because Theo knows the Sox will be one of the bigger spenders over the next few years and one of his main competitors for FA pitchers.  
 
NOTE: By pretending, I mean the Cubs would sign Lester if he comes cheap enough, but I think Theo wants to get the Sox or whomever to commit to that extra year because he knows it will help the Cubs in the long run by eliminating competition for FAs in the future.  

I think you may be underestimating the eta for the Cubs to get back in contention. Theo's put together a very promising young core and I wouldn't be surprised to see them knocking on the door in 2015, depending how Russell and the OFs establish themselves. The only glaring hole is a frontline SP, and they've loads of money to spend.

The drive up the price strategy is plausible I guess, but a bit short sighted if hes expecting to be buying SPs on the market in a year or two (at inflated rates that he helped set by bidding up this year's class).

 

[NDame616]

 
I suppose... if you eliminate David Ortiz, Bill Mueller, Kevin Millar, and Keith Foulke.

 
I think AT BEST you can say Theo has a mixed bag of success in gauging free agent signings

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

 
I think AT BEST you can say Theo has a mixed bag of success in gauging free agent signings

 
You can probably say that about every GM in the game.

 

[Hee Sox Choi]

I think you may be underestimating the eta for the Cubs to get back in contention. Theo's put together a very promising young core and I wouldn't be surprised to see them knocking on the door in 2015, depending how Russell and the OFs establish themselves. The only glaring hole is a frontline SP, and they've loads of money to spend.

Not to derail the Lester thread, but the Cubs lineup is Coghlan, Baez, Rizzo, Castro, Soler, Valbuena, Wellington C, Alcantara.  Bryant is starting in the minors; Almora and Addison Russell need more time.  That lineup is not better than .500.  No way, too many rooks & question marks IMHO.  I guess we have different opinions, now back to Lester talk (don't want to get yelled at)...

 

[E5 Yaz]

Not to derail the Lester thread ...

 
:speechless:

 

[Rasputin]

I cannot help but wonder if Lester expressed a desire to see some steps that would ensure the Sox are competitive sooner than later.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Just keep in mind what our own Clears Cleaver said that Edes told him about Lester.  He said they are willing to set the market on Jon Lester back at the GM Meetings.  Let's see if that is still the case.  I can't imagine they will go this far and not sign a top pitcher like Jon Lester.  Luxury tax be damned.

 

[joe dokes]

 
How do we know that was their starting offer and there is a "clear understanding that there's more"? Maybe I missed it, but how do we know that the Red Sox are willing to go north of $150M (which is what I think it'll be)?

 
As to the first part, just reading between the lines (like all of us, i suppose).  My "logic", such as it is, goes like this:  If 6/120 is to be believed, I just dont think that they would have given him a "that's our best" take it or leave it, knowing that he was going to shop the offer, and thus also knowing that it wouldn't close the deal.  Furthermore, if whatever the Sox had said was met with "no, we're done with you," I think the Sox would have leaked that it was unlikely that Lester was returning.  So, based on that, I think both sides understand that whatever the Sox put out there last week was both: 1)competitive/reasonable/in the ballpark, etc; and 2)was not their final answer.
 
As to the second, you are right, we dont know how high they'll go. If 150 is their limit, so be it. I understand why not signing him at all to a 6 year deal makes sense; so I certainly understand of there is a $$ ceiling as well.

 

[rembrat]

I cannot help but wonder if Lester expressed a desire to see some steps that would ensure the Sox are competitive sooner than later.

 
Not likely as Lester had been in the organization for more than a decade and knows how committed the FO is to fielding competitive teams.
 
What I'm afraid is they stand by a 6/120 offer because they "had to spread the money out."

 

[jimbobim]

Gammo might have buried the lead and someone should note this to the hosts freaking on WEEI now that Lester might be gone 
 
They’re trying to bring back Jon Lester, and while on Sunday, two National League general managers said they heard it was close to happening, Lester’s agents still has not heard from the Yankees. The plan is to visit St. Louis the week after Thanksgiving, then perhaps decide at the end of that week before the winter meetings convene in San Diego. Then there are several trade and free agent plans for the possibility of Lester leaving. There are trade and free agent plans for at least one more starting pitcher, even the thought of Japanese right-hander Kenta Maeda.
 
http://www.gammonsdaily.com/peter-gammons-hanley-red-sox-reunion-and-free-agent-rumblings-around-the-league/

 

[InsideTheParker]

 
Not likely as Lester had been in the organization for more than a decade and knows how committed the FO is to fielding competitive teams.
 
What I'm afraid is they stand by a 6/120 offer because they "had to spread the money out."

But one could argue that they didn't field a competitive team last year. This current spending might be an over-reaction to the jbj/wmb disappointments or part of a long-term plan in which they punted last year waiting for panda/hanley to be free agents. Also, if 6/120 or a bit more isn't enough for Lester, then I have no idea what a "home-town discount" means.

 

[joe dokes]

 
 
What I'm afraid is they stand by a 6/120 offer because they "had to spread the money out."

 
Not that Lester will end up here, but I dont think that's how it will play out.  The total difference between, say 120 and 160 is enormous.  But in terms of AAV, I dont think that the Sox will see that, spread out over 6 years, to be that insurmountable. They may not want to go that high, but I would be surprised if they weren't willing to add several million more per year to a 6-year deal.

 

[Hee Sox Choi]

I asked a scout about the Yankees swooping in and snatching up Lester.  His reply:
 
"You think Lester want to lose in his last big deal?  The Yankees will not be good again this year.  So you may not have to outbid the Yanks."
 
 

 

[mabrowndog]

Since the Braves have reportedly been in on Lester, I can't help wondering if this is related:
 

David O'BrienV ‏@DOBrienAJC
 
#Braves are among teams that have expressed interest in veteran catcher David Ross.

 
https://twitter.com/DOBrienAJC/status/536915695523856384

 

[Hee Sox Choi]

Probably they just need someone cheap that can tutor Christian Bethancourt and play the 12 games that he doesn't start.  

 

[FredCDobbs]

Lester's not coming back.  Someone will offer $150-160 mill and they see a possible CC or Verlander scenario there and want no part of that.  They'll help the rotation by trading some of their OF surplus for the best pitchers they can get and supplement that with a few kids from their stable of minor-league arms.  

 

[soxhop411]

Gammo might have buried the lead and someone should note this to the hosts freaking on WEEI now that Lester might be gone 
 
They’re trying to bring back Jon Lester, and while on Sunday, two National League general managers said they heard it was close to happening, Lester’s agents still has not heard from the Yankees. The plan is to visit St. Louis the week after Thanksgiving, then perhaps decide at the end of that week before the winter meetings convene in San Diego. Then there are several trade and free agent plans for the possibility of Lester leaving. There are trade and free agent plans for at least one more starting pitcher, even the thought of Japanese right-hander Kenta Maeda.
 
http://www.gammonsdaily.com/peter-gammons-hanley-red-sox-reunion-and-free-agent-rumblings-around-the-league/

Was just about to post this.

 

[Harry Hooper]

But one could argue that they didn't field a competitive team last year. This current spending might be an over-reaction to the jbj/wmb disappointments or part of a long-term plan in which they punted last year waiting for panda/hanley to be free agents. Also, if 6/120 or a bit more isn't enough for Lester, then I have no idea what a "home-town discount" means.

 
For the bazillionth time, Lester talked about a hometown discount in the context of signing a new deal while still a year away from being a FA. That no longer applies.

 

[rembrat]

But one could argue that they didn't field a competitive team last year. 

 
Hard to say this when that team won in 2013.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Since the Braves have reportedly been in on Lester, I can't help wondering if this is related:
 
 
https://twitter.com/DOBrienAJC/status/536915695523856384

You could be right Dog, but he was a long-time Braves player and is from the Atlanta area.  He could simply be interested in going home again.

 

[soxhop411]

But Boston is rebuilding in a big way. The team is also talking to its former ace, Jon Lester, and is believed prepared to offer him close to $130 million over six years.

http://mweb.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24836724/sandoval-agrees-to-red-sox-deal-as-boston-looks-for-free-agent-sweep?v=1&vc=2

 

[snowmanny]

I cannot help but wonder if Lester expressed a desire to see some steps that would ensure the Sox are competitive sooner than later.

I wonder if the Red Sox said "We know we can pay you 6/110 (or whatever).  It might go up depending on how some other moves pan out."

 

[soxhop411]

So with BOS preparing to offer 6/130. I think he is going to be back in Bos.

 

[Doc Zero]

I was happy with 6/144, but 6/130 is gravy.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Ken Rosenthal suggested on Hot Stove this morning to watch the Giants, now that they don't have to pay $100M plus to Panda. 

 

[InsideTheParker]

 
Hard to say this when that team won in 2013.

Compare the line-ups. How soon we forget!

 

[soxhop411]

“@RochieWBZ: FWIW, was told Sandoval and Ramirez signings won't affect #RedSox ability or desire to re-sign Lester - Sox still want him.”

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Compare the line-ups. How soon we forget!

 
The opening day lineups were very similar. Injuries were a huge part of the difference between the teams.
 
2013: Salty, Napoli, Pedroia, Drew, Middlebrooks, Gomes, Ellsbury Victorino, Ortiz
2014: AJP, Napoli, Pedroia, Bogaerts, Middlebrooks, Gomes, JBJ, Victorino, Ortiz
 
So they swapped their 'meh' catcher for a shitty catcher, replaced Drew with Bogaerts and Ellsbury with JBJ. All three bets failed to pay off, Victorino's body imploded and then Drew came back and never found his stroke. The intention was to bring back the vast majority of the team that won the World Series in 2013. The universe had other ideas, though.

 

[diehard24]

Gammo might have buried the lead and someone should note this to the hosts freaking on WEEI now that Lester might be gone 
 
They’re trying to bring back Jon Lester, and while on Sunday, two National League general managers said they heard it was close to happening, Lester’s agents still has not heard from the Yankees. The plan is to visit St. Louis the week after Thanksgiving, then perhaps decide at the end of that week before the winter meetings convene in San Diego. Then there are several trade and free agent plans for the possibility of Lester leaving. There are trade and free agent plans for at least one more starting pitcher, even the thought of Japanese right-hander Kenta Maeda.
 
http://www.gammonsdaily.com/peter-gammons-hanley-red-sox-reunion-and-free-agent-rumblings-around-the-league/

 
Saw this, but wasn't sure how to interpret it. Two NL GMs said Lester was close to a) coming back to the Sox, or b) hearing from the Yankees? I think he means the latter.

 

[RedOctober3829]

MLB Network Radio ‏@MLBNetworkRadio 30s31 seconds ago
.@JimBowden_ESPN: I don't think Lester is going to pick the #SFGiants, it's going to be #RedSox, #Cubs, #Braves or #Cardinals #InsidePitch
 

https://twitter.com/MLBNetworkRadio/status/536968835849797632

 

[Todd Benzinger]

 
Saw this, but wasn't sure how to interpret it. Two NL GMs said Lester was close to a) coming back to the Sox, or b) hearing from the Yankees? I think he means the latter.

 
It means A). Gammo garbles up English pretty well, but the "it... happening" has to refer back to the Sox bringing him back. So Gammo is saying, while some good sources  believe that the Sox are about to get it done, I am waiting to hear from the MFY before I count on it.

 

[JohntheBaptist]

 
Saw this, but wasn't sure how to interpret it. Two NL GMs said Lester was close to a) coming back to the Sox, or b) hearing from the Yankees? I think he means the latter.

 
He's saying that while two people in the know think it will happen, he still hasn't heard from the Yankees. He probably wants to wait until he's at least sure they're not even going to respond to decide fully, considering what their entry could do to the offers involved.

 

[Corsi]

Our boy Jake Wesley checking in
 
Jake Wesley MLB ‏@mlb_nl_al  19s20 seconds ago
This is going against what I said yesterday about lester. But he's close with Red Sox around 120-140 million...

 

[ArgentinaSOXfan]

That sounds cheap, especially if its closer to 120 than 140.
Crossing fingers.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

Our boy Jake Wesley checking in
 
Jake Wesley MLB ‏@mlb_nl_al   [URL="https://twitter.com/mlb_nl_al/status/536973668598153216

https://twitter.com/mlb_nl_al/status/536973668598153216"]19s20

link to tweet seconds ago[/url]
This is going against what I said yesterday about lester. But he's close with Red Sox around 120-140 million...

Its fappening!!!

 

[Otis Foster]

 
He's saying that while two people in the know think it will happen, he still hasn't heard from the Yankees. He probably wants to wait until he's at least sure they're not even going to respond to decide fully, considering what their entry could do to the offers involved.

 
JtB nailed it. It makes no sense to pair the thought about two gms with hearing from the Yankees. If you do that, you render meaningless the clause that begins "while on Sunday..."
 
Damn misplaced comma.....

 

[SoxFanForsyth]

Didn't see this on this thread, but this jives with Wesley report.

nevermind it's thr Gammons report from above. Sorry - at work on phone, hard to catch everything, lots of action today too.

Anyway, sounds like that's hopefully getting wrapped up soon

 

[InsideTheParker]

 
The opening day lineups were very similar. Injuries were a huge part of the difference between the teams.
 
2013: Salty, Napoli, Pedroia, Drew, Middlebrooks, Gomes, Ellsbury Victorino, Ortiz
2014: AJP, Napoli, Pedroia, Bogaerts, Middlebrooks, Gomes, JBJ, Victorino, Ortiz
 
So they swapped their 'meh' catcher for a shitty catcher, replaced Drew with Bogaerts and Ellsbury with JBJ. All three bets failed to pay off, Victorino's body imploded and then Drew came back and never found his stroke. The intention was to bring back the vast majority of the team that won the World Series in 2013. The universe had other ideas, though.

The difference between jbj and Ellsbury was the one I had in mine more than the others. The total lack of offense at that position was a killer, in my opinion. At least it was important enough not to characterize the two teams as the same.  
 
This thread got a bit off the track with the expressed notion that the Sox might be showing Lester that the team will be competitive. Anyway, the Sox have addressed the offense, now let's see them sign some pitchers. My preference is for Lester and Iwakuma, but other options don't stink.

 

[nvalvo]

Let me first stipulate a few things. 
 
1) It was a fuckup to fail to extend Lester for something like 5/$105 (2015-19) in the spring. 
 
2) Lester can be resigned now for somewhere between 6/$130 (2015-20) and 7/$140 (2015-21). That's a bunch more money. 
 
3) Cespedes has sufficient value to teams like Seattle and Washington that have deep rotations and need power bats to be the centerpiece of a deal for a starter like Fister or Iwakuma. 
 
4) Fangraphs just said that Henry Owens' rights are worth between $20 and $30m in surplus value. 
 
If, having mishandled the springtime negotiations, Ben is able to manage matters such that Lester returns and Cespedes is dealt for a good starting pitcher, that will be quite impressive. The extra cost in Lester's deal will be roughly equivalent to the surplus value of a top prospect that it would otherwise take to pry such a pitcher away.
 
Of course, that leaves aside CBT ramifications, but still... maybe he knows what he's doing?

 

[Corsi]

Jake Wesley MLB ‏@mlb_nl_al  20s20 seconds ago
Not reporting lester to Boston done . But near accepting of terms