The Plan For the #1, er, #3 Overall Pick?

chilidawg

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Yeah, I don't get people sometimes. Nearly everyone admits that the Cs need top-10 talent to compete for a championship, and now that we might able to draft a player with that kind of potential, people are saying we should trade the opportunity for two lesser players?

Fultz is going to come in and play immediately. Jackson, Ball, and even Tatum are going to have to make some adjustments. Hopefully they'll be able to do so but none of those three are going to be to do in the NBA what they did in college.
Because you're talking as if potential is the same as future reality. Fultz may or may not be a top 10 player. Guys like Butler and George are at least near that level. If you can get one of them for the pick and not much else, I seriously consider it.
 

JCizzle

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Because you're talking as if potential is the same as future reality. Fultz may or may not be a top 10 player. Guys like Butler and George are at least near that level. If you can get one of them for the pick and not much else, I seriously consider it.
You'd trade the #1 for potentially only one year of George? That seems steep.
 

slamminsammya

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Brown's a 3. Maybe he will improve his handle and shooting in the future to be a 2, but he's not there yet.
People really still think there are positions on the NBA court? How quaint. In the year 2017 the positions on a basketball court are Point Guard - 3 other guys - 1 big. And the big isn't even a big - its someone capable of defending the other team's big.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Because you're talking as if potential is the same as future reality. Fultz may or may not be a top 10 player. Guys like Butler and George are at least near that level. If you can get one of them for the pick and not much else, I seriously consider it.
I was referring more to the trade down proposals.

I would consider George but I'd have to get some assurances on his contract. I personally don't consider Butler a top-10 player so I wouldn't do it for him, but the fact of the matter is that we're not getting either George or Butler for Fultz plus plus plus so I don't see how it's anything more than random speculation.
 

amfox1

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None of this quarter for two dimes stuff. Draft Fultz.
This may be the right answer, but Ainge has five weeks to use the #1 pick as an opening to explore discussions with the rest of the Association about the entirety of the roster. Who likes Bradley? Smart? IT? Rozier? Fultz? Ball? Is there a sign-and-trade available? This is Trader Danny heaven.

Ainge is going to be looking for a massive haul for the #1 pick and/or will be locking in trades for other components of the roster. Horford is safe. Pretty much everyone else is trade bait in the right deal.
 

DJnVa

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Woj said that Ainge mentioned Ball last night. The Lakers are on notice. lol

And Ainge should absolutely "shop" the pick. That's just smart. Who knows what happens and what other NBA GMs are thinking. Remember, that an NBA GM was enamored with Buddy Hield this year.
 

PedroKsBambino

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I expect Ainge to talk up Ball a lot, while also being very complimentary of Fultz.

I don't think it's impossible Celtics actually want Ball---I think we saw with the Chris Paul-Pierce rumor/offer that Ainge will move elite to get super-elite, and also my sense over the years has been that he places a significant premium on playmaking skill. But even if they don't prefer Ball, they have every reason to put some pressure on Lakers who seem highly likely to prefer Ball.

I'm not clear what the realistic deal is with Lakers though. Clarkson isn't really usfeul for Celtics; I think Randle or Russell is not yessable for Lakers. There's really nothing else there, with the possible exception of Zubac. So I would definitely make the noises, but not sure it leads anywhere
 

Byrdbrain

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If Danny loves Fultz and thinks he is much better than Ball he can't take the chance that Magic might feel the same way no matter what is being said publicly. If you trade the #1 you have to be prepared to not get the guy you really want.
 

the moops

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If Danny loves Fultz and thinks he is much better than Ball he can't take the chance that Magic might feel the same way no matter what is being said publicly. If you trade the #1 you have to be prepared to not get the guy you really want.
If this were to happen, Danny would have assurances that LAL was in fact taking Ball. Can't imagine a GM going back on is word at that point.
 

BaseballJones

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If Danny loves Fultz and thinks he is much better than Ball he can't take the chance that Magic might feel the same way no matter what is being said publicly. If you trade the #1 you have to be prepared to not get the guy you really want.
I think this is right. If Fultz is the guy you want, you don't get cute, because you could lose out on him. If, however, Ainge is like 60/40 on Fultz/Ball, but what he can get from the Lakers is more than enough to make up that difference, then it's a risk he would be willing to live with. Plus, there's the added benefit of the Lakers actually taking Ball, thus allowing you to get Fultz PLUS whatever the Lakers gave you to move up. It would be a game of poker, really. Maybe the Lakers would be playing the Celtics, getting them to think that the Celtics are playing THEM. Who knows.
 

orgoman

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Question - is it possible to package the #1, Crowder and Amir to the Knicks for Porzingas? That would balance out the roster, provide even more outside shooting and rim protection and combined with a Hayward signing (I can dream) would create a monster to rival the Warriors. Or was the talk about Porzingas being unhappy with the Knicks all a media thing?
 

smastroyin

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If this were to happen, Danny would have assurances that LAL was in fact taking Ball. Can't imagine a GM going back on is word at that point.
Except then the only reason the Lakers have to make the trade is to take Danny at face value that he will take Ball with the #1. If in fact the Celtics prefer Fultz, the Lakers prefer Ball, and a deal is made, then there was deception somewhere.

I really think the only way a trade happens is if Danny is neutral on Fultz vs. Ball and can get something extra to have the choice taken away from him.
 

dcmissle

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If this were to happen, Danny would have assurances that LAL was in fact taking Ball. Can't imagine a GM going back on is word at that point.
You would not get such assurances -- especially if you started the trade talks by pretend-threatening to take the guy you think the Lakers want.
 

Byrdbrain

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If this were to happen, Danny would have assurances that LAL was in fact taking Ball. Can't imagine a GM going back on is word at that point.
So it would be OK for Danny to lie to Magic about wanting Ball but it wouldn't be OK for Magic to lie to Danny about the same thing?
I actually doubt either would flat out lie but I also doubt either would give assurances to the other.

Edit: Didn't mean to pile on, the three responses were at essentially the same time.
 

BigSoxFan

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Question - is it possible to package the #1, Crowder and Amir to the Knicks for Porzingas? That would balance out the roster, provide even more outside shooting and rim protection and combined with a Hayward signing (I can dream) would create a monster to rival the Warriors. Or was the talk about Porzingas being unhappy with the Knicks all a media thing?
Knicks would want a lot more than Fultz. The Porzingis stuff is going to be a distant memory come October but I would absolutely investigate if Phil is willing to talk.
 

ALiveH

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I think there's no deal to be had with Lakers. It's a huge gamble that they would take Ball. They could easily take Fultz in which case we're kinda stuck with a big downgrade to Jackson or Tatum. There's no incentive for Lakers to be honest - all they get out of taking Ball #1 versus #2 is being stuck with a bigger contract to him.

That Porzingis trade would be an outright fleecing of the Knicks, so I doubt they do it (but one can hope).
 

orgoman

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Knicks would want a lot more than Fultz. The Porzingis stuff is going to be a distant memory come October but I would absolutely investigate if Phil is willing to talk.

Fair enough. Would you go to Fultz, Crowder, next years Nets #1 and Amir for Porzingas? Maybe throw in Rozier (although I would really like to keep him) or Gebuselele or Zizic. The Knicks would upgrade at multiple positions and get more years of control (they only have Porzingas for 2 more years). It's a really high price to pay, but Porzingas is a much better fit for the Celts than Butler or George.
 

the moops

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So it would be OK for Danny to lie to Magic about wanting Ball but it wouldn't be OK for Magic to lie to Danny about the same thing?
I actually doubt either would flat out lie but I also doubt either would give assurances to the other.

Edit: Didn't mean to pile on, the three responses were at essentially the same time.
I don't think it is the same thing. Danny is in the drivers seat with the # 1 pick. He can tell Magic that there are other 10 teams insterested in it, or 2) he is somewhat agnostic about Fultz or Ball, and if you 100% want Ball, OK, give me a little something and I will let you for sure have him.

I don't know, maybe that is far fetched
 

bsj

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Draft Fultz, renounce Olynyk, sign Hayward, deal Bradley and another asset for a defense first 5.

IT
Fultz / Brown
Hayward
Horford
TBD big
 

Jeff Van GULLY

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I don't think it is the same thing. Danny is in the drivers seat with the # 1 pick. He can tell Magic that there are other 10 teams insterested in it, or 2) he is somewhat agnostic about Fultz or Ball, and if you 100% want Ball, OK, give me a little something and I will let you for sure have him.

I don't know, maybe that is far fetched

I'm not 100% that the Lakers don't trade the pick for a 'superstar'. It's a risk if the Lakers then trade the #1 to another team and that team takes Fultz.
 

orgoman

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Why renounce Olynyk? He's only slated to make $4.2M next year? He's more than worth that.
 

Big John

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I wouldn't exaggerate what it would take to get Anthony Davis. Look at what the Kings got for Cousins and go from there. No. 1 (Fultz), Bradley and Crowder would be an instant rebuild around Boogie, especially if the Pelicans can retain Holiday.

Now that the Celtics have No. 1 I'm much more inclined to trade the pick. Another thought-- assuming that the rumors of Porzingis' disaffection with the Knicks are at least partially true-- is No. 1 and some potpourri of young assets for Porzingis and No. 8.
 

DJnVa

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I'm not clear what the realistic deal is with Lakers though. Clarkson isn't really usfeul for Celtics; I think Randle or Russell is not yessable for Lakers. There's really nothing else there, with the possible exception of Zubac. So I would definitely make the noises, but not sure it leads anywhere
Another future draft choice.

And you make the deal on draft night, so you ensure that the Lakers don't take Fultz. Boston drafts for LA and vice versa.
 

jmcc5400

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Why renounce Olynyk? He's only slated to make $4.2M next year? He's more than worth that.
$4.2 million is the qualifying offer, with a 7.8 million cap hold. He'll get more than that and KO will be a luxury the Celts can't afford if they want to keep max space.
 

RetractableRoof

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I wouldn't exaggerate what it would take to get Anthony Davis. Look at what the Kings got for Cousins and go from there. No. 1 (Fultz), Bradley and Crowder would be an instant rebuild around Boogie, especially if the Pelicans can retain Holiday.

Now that the Celtics have No. 1 I'm much more inclined to trade the pick. Another thought-- assuming that the rumors of Porzingis' disaffection with the Knicks are at least partially true-- is No. 1 and some potpourri of young assets for Porzingis and No. 8.
At least be realistic about what you are proposing. Cousins was perceived as damaged goods/serious baggage around the league which devalued him enormously on the trade market. Additionally, the GM said that once he got ownership approval to trade him he jumped at the best deal that materialized before his owner could change his mind on approving the trade. Given either of those two factors there is no scenario where Pelicans would be under such duress to move Davis - it would cost a lot more. Not to mention, if they gambled on creating a new twin towers, they need to give it more than 1/3 of a season to reach fruition - buying that potential from them would also up the price.
 

smastroyin

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I don't know which thread to put this in, but I just want to remark about how fucking depressed I'd be today if Charlotte had actually done the smart thing and given Danny the Justise Winslow pick, which sounds like, now, it would have included at least one of the Brooklyn picks.
 

BigSoxFan

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I don't know which thread to put this in, but I just want to remark about how fucking depressed I'd be today if Charlotte had actually done the smart thing and given Danny the Justise Winslow pick, which sounds like, now, it would have included at least one of the Brooklyn picks.
Man, you just gave me goosebumps.
 

DJnVa

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I think there's no deal to be had with Lakers. It's a huge gamble that they would take Ball. .
Have you folks never seen draft picks on TV where the players and announcers already know they are being traded?
 

RetractableRoof

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I don't know which thread to put this in, but I just want to remark about how fucking depressed I'd be today if Charlotte had actually done the smart thing and given Danny the Justise Winslow pick, which sounds like, now, it would have included at least one of the Brooklyn picks.
Agreed, which makes me ask the question: given how wrong that looks at the moment... and Ainge seemed mile high on the Winslow evaluation, does this add credence to the Cs trading the unknown (#1) for the known (existing NBA star)? I say no based on smarter people than I liking Fulz... but it does give pause. Is Fulz more of a sure thing than Winslow was?
 

CreightonGubanich

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I wouldn't trade the #1 pick (who I think has to be Fultz) for Butler or George, even in a package. The Celtics need top-end talent way more than they need value. Unless someone like Westbrook or Davis is available, and there's no indication that they are, I think the way to move forward is simple. Draft Fultz, make every effort to sign Hayward, keep next year's BKN pick, and compete at the top of the East for the next 15 years.
 

moondog80

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I don't know which thread to put this in, but I just want to remark about how fucking depressed I'd be today if Charlotte had actually done the smart thing and given Danny the Justise Winslow pick, which sounds like, now, it would have included at least one of the Brooklyn picks.
I still don't believe the offer was as stated, with no protections. I don't know what makes less sense, the Celtics offering it or the Hornets rejecting it to pick Frank Kaminsky .
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Have you folks never seen draft picks on TV where the players and announcers already know they are being traded?
The better question is why would LA give up anything just to pay Ball more money when he probably isn't even going to work out for the Celtics.
 

DJnVa

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The better question is why would LA give up anything just to pay Ball more money when he probably isn't even going to work out for the Celtics.
That's definitely a valid question. I'm just talking about the posters that think we'd make this deal and the Lakers would suddenly go "HAHAHAHA, WE WANTED FULTZ ALL ALONG!!!"

That's not how it would go down. We'd have Woj on draft night saying, "The Celtics are on the clock, but there is a trade that cannot go through until after the draft. They are drafting for the Lakers. We are trying to find out what the return is. Obviously the #2 pick, but not sure what else."

Those types of trades are official. No one gets screwed.
 

Julius.R

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Why is everyone so gung-ho on getting rid of Bradley? We have (or will have) the cap space for one big signing this summer and then we will have to live off the bird rights (and luxury tax) of our current unit. Wouldn't Fultz-Bradley with IT as a Harden like sixth man make sense? Even if it is a massive salary commitment to the owners?
 

Ale Xander

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I wouldn't trade the #1 pick (who I think has to be Fultz) for Butler or George, even in a package. The Celtics need top-end talent way more than they need value. Unless someone like Westbrook or Davis is available, and there's no indication that they are, I think the way to move forward is simple. Draft Fultz, make every effort to sign Hayward, keep next year's BKN pick, and compete at the top of the East for the next 15 years.
When is your newsletter coming out? I would like to subscribe
 

Cellar-Door

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Why is everyone so gung-ho on getting rid of Bradley? We have (or will have) the cap space for one big signing this summer and then we will have to live off the bird rights (and luxury tax) of our current unit. Wouldn't Fultz-Bradley with IT as a Harden like sixth man make sense? Even if it is a massive salary commitment to the owners?
Massive salary commitments come with all kinds of crippling inflexibility under the CBA, especially when most of the money is going to good but flawed players like IT. Also no owner is paying $75M for their 2nd and 3rd guard. It seems very likely 1 or 2 of IT/Smart/Bradley is going to be gone after next season at the latest. Smart seems like an easier keep because he's the youngest, he plays a lot of different roles and he's likely to cost the least. Bradley and IT (particularly IT) are less flexible, will cost more, and have the same issue with size. Personally I think IT should be the odd man out, but for those who don't, AB has good trade value as well if he's the choice to move on from.
 

mikeot

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"The only windows that matter to Ainge belong to Cleveland and Golden State. As long as LeBron James owns the East and Steph Curry the West, there's little point in challenging either one via a frontal assault. Doesn't it make much more sense to build the team that will be ready to supplant them when their cores age out of invincibility in the next 3-to-5 years?

The best way to do that is to draft Jaylen Brown in 2016, Fultz in 2017, and hopefully another blue-chipper in 2018, when the Nets again project to stink (my God those picks are the gifts that keep on giving, though next year's will be it). If you do it right, you're not only viable now, you've laid the groundwork to eventually assume the Iron Throne. And by the way, Thomas and Hayward will be 31 and 30, respectively, in three years. There's your window.

* Ainge has told anyone who'll listen that the only path to a title is via "transcendent" players. There aren't too many of those right now: LeBron, Curry, Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, Kyrie Irving, James Harden, Russell Westbrook might be it, with Anthony Davis, Karl-Anthony Towns, John Wall, and the Greek Freak knocking on the door.

Not on that list? Butler and George, two players the Celtics could conceivably acquire. They're both really good -- though George seems intent on bolting for Los Angeles next summer -- but neither is transcendent. Who knows what Fultz is? If he has a chance to crack the club, you don't pass on the opportunity to select him."

http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/basketball/celtics/john-tomase/2017/05/17/celtics-own-1st-pick-draft-and-lets-not-over
 

BaseballJones

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I don't understand why people think Davis is on the table. New Orleans can pay him far more than anybody else, and there's no way they give up on the Cousins/Davis experiment after like 30 games.
I'm trying to think of what a realistic return would be for Davis. My first thought was that IT would have to go to New Orleans, but then I remembered (I think!) that IT and Cousins have some issues, so maybe that wouldn't be what NO wants.

Clearly this year's #1, next year's Brooklyn pick, Brown, and Horford, to make the money work. Horford probably could be a nice compliment to Cousins. Would all that be worth it for Davis? Crazy or not....the answer might just be... yes.

IT, Bradley, Rozier, Smart, Crowder, Davis, Olynyk, and maybe Young progresses, and Zizic and Yabusele arrive....

IT and Davis on the same team would be incredible.

Starting lineup: IT, Bradley, Crowder, Yabusele, and Davis. Yabusele has some range but mainly is the beef underneath. That lineup would be pretty dynamic.

For NO, their lineup would eventually include Holiday, Cousins, Fultz, Brown, their #1 pick this year, Brooklyn's #1 pick next year.... that's got tremendous potential.

But why am I wasting time thinking about this? It's never gonna happen. But yeah, the return for Davis would need to be astronomical - I'm not even sure that the package I listed above would be enough for New Orleans.
 
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DJnVa

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Some articles:

https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-celtics/2017/05/17/5-things-celtics-fans-should-know-about-markelle-fultz

There are highlights from his game against Colorado in here (37, 8, 5). Check out the pass about 1:40 in. And the coast to coast at 2:03. These highlights are ridiculous.

https://theringer.com/2017-nba-draft-lottery-boston-celtics-number-one-pick-markelle-fultz-125748354f88

http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2017/5/16/15646832/nba-mock-draft-2017-markelle-fultz-boston-celtics-lonzo-ball-los-angeles-lakers

If you were making a modern NBA point guard in a lab, he would look a lot like Markelle Fultz. Every tool is here: size, speed, length, shooting, and the ability to finish above the rim. What really separates Fultz is his creativity off the bounce. Sometimes that means hitting open cutters with a pass. Sometimes it means finding new ways to score out of the pick-and-roll.

 
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ElcaballitoMVP

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I think it's pretty easy. If you can't get a top 10 player, keep the pick and draft Fultz. The C's have plenty of other assets to make deals to fill out a competitive roster and they can continue to build through the draft, both this year and next. Although, Saric+3 would be something to think about. I'm just happy the ping pong balls were kind last night. I still have nightmares about the Duncan lottery.
 

Fishy1

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You shop the pick, but you're holding out for something transcendental, and that means you're probably getting nothing. Paul George and Jimmy Butler are not transcendental: you can't even be sure you'll keep George, and both have miles on their legs, and their window closes about when some other very important players windows close.

So draft Fultz. My understanding is that to add a big salary, like Hayward, knowing (again) that you probably won't get him: Olynyk is gone, and you have to to get rid of Zeller, and Bradley. There's also the luxury tax considerations, which I understand to be prohibitive.

If Bradley is going to get paid (which he is) he needs to go anyways. Preferably he gets traded sooner rather than later. He's too limited on both ends, and especially as a passer in an offense that depends on passing. I hope and pray that Marcus learns to shoot at least from the outside, because it looks like he'll never get the lift to be effective around the rim, and he's a much more versatile defender and better passer.

"The only windows that matter to Ainge belong to Cleveland and Golden State. As long as LeBron James owns the East and Steph Curry the West, there's little point in challenging either one via a frontal assault. Doesn't it make much more sense to build the team that will be ready to supplant them when their cores age out of invincibility in the next 3-to-5 years?
This is all that really matters. Keep the picks, stay competitive, and build a Spurs-like culture. This team has a chance to be frighteningly good in 5 or 6 years (and for long after that) and you don't blow that up so you can watch Jimmy Butler get steamrolled by Lebron or Kevin Durant.
 

heavyde050

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Agreed, which makes me ask the question: given how wrong that looks at the moment... and Ainge seemed mile high on the Winslow evaluation, does this add credence to the Cs trading the unknown (#1) for the known (existing NBA star)? I say no based on smarter people than I liking Fulz... but it does give pause. Is Fulz more of a sure thing than Winslow was?
Yes he is. I can only go by what a majority of the draft people are saying, but as far as anything can really be certain, Fultz is on a whole other level compared to Winslow.
 

heavyde050

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I think it's pretty easy. If you can't get a top 10 player, keep the pick and draft Fultz. The C's have plenty of other assets to make deals to fill out a competitive roster and they can continue to build through the draft, both this year and next. Although, Saric+3 would be something to think about. I'm just happy the ping pong balls were kind last night. I still have nightmares about the Duncan lottery.
I know it would never happen, but in order to improve a rival like that (giving Philly Fultz) they better be bringing a lot more than Saric + #3.
If I was Ainge I would hold out for multiple first round picks with very minimal protection or ask for Embiid.
In other words, no deal with Philly.