The Next Pats QB: Daniels or Maye?

Jimbodandy

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Maye went #2 in this draft to Washington, and I got a trade offer from LAC - I gave them #3 and they gave me #5 and #37. I figured between them and Arizona, that Daniels and/or McCarthy would still be on the board at #5. I was right. So I got Daniels and then two good OT and two WRs with potential, plus some defensive help including one of the better LB prospects in the whole draft. If we did this, while I prefer Maye over Daniels, overall I think I'd be thrilled with this draft, at least on paper.

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Love this draft.

I'm not sold on Wilson, but WTF. If we got this draft, the rebuild begins in earnest.
 

Curt S Loew

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You know, in some ways I'm glad they didn't end up with #2. Now Washington has to make that decision. Patriots get who's left.
 

BigJimEd

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I was more commenting off of the post above mine. They like both of them. Choice will be made for them.
Sure but I doubt they have them equal. All things considered, I'd prefer they have their choice rather then having it made for them.
 

Cellar-Door

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Sure but I doubt they have them equal. All things considered, I'd prefer they have their choice rather then having it made for them.
yeah I'm sure they'd rather have two.
One thing about having 3 though... it does help the guy who gets picked. You pick a guy at 3 and he starts slower than the guy at 2.... every second is "can't believe they passed on that guy for this scrub", so if you do have Maye 2 and get him at 3... nice to have the guy who needs time and has the worse supporting cast not going over the more ready now guy,
 

Curt S Loew

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Sure but I doubt they have them equal. All things considered, I'd prefer they have their choice rather then having it made for them.
Again, I was going off of the other post saying they like them both.

Let Washington make the wrong choice. ;)
 

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Cellar-Door

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djbayko

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This is the approach SF used when they picked Lance as well, talked about wanting to see them interact.......
Which is weird to me? Why do you want to see how the QBs interact with each other? I'd want to see how they interact with potential teammates, both other rookies and older vets.
Maybe they mean seeing how it brings out the competitive spirit in them. I also imagine it's a lot easier to compare them when they're together.
 

TheRealness

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Thunderdome!

Another relevant nugget from the Schrager draft -- after the 4 QBs go off the board by 1-6, no more QBs in first round. Nix and Penix both Day 2. Wonder if that'd mean Vikings and/or Broncos would pay up to get to one of the top spots in Round 2?
Schrager has the Vikings picking Nix at 23.
 

Over Guapo Grande

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Justthetippett

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He's so good in these answers. Much better than I would have anticipated given that he's never really worked in media. And already significantly less salty than when he was interviewed while coaching. (I realize that was all intentional but it's refreshing to see him unburdened by it.)
 

Cellar-Door

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SO one thing I think gets glossed over a bit with Daniels is....

He has a bunch of red flags (late breakout age, huge pressure to sack rate, etc.) that all get glossed over with "yeah but Joe Burrow". So besides the obvious issue that one outlier doesn't mean the concerns aren't valid....

Joe Burrow has been in the league 4 years, he's been one of the leaders in sacks taken per game in all 4, and 2 of the 4 have ended with him out for the year. He's not even a running QB, he just takes an absurd number of shots in the pocket..... how long do we think Burrow is gonna last as a top QB? And then for Daniels... who is slighter than Burrow and runs a lot.... even more concern. I see concerns from people about hits on the running plays, but I think people are underrating how often QBs who take a ton of sacks get hurt IN the pocket, which you can't fix by sliding.
 

Justthetippett

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SO one thing I think gets glossed over a bit with Daniels is....

He has a bunch of red flags (late breakout age, huge pressure to sack rate, etc.) that all get glossed over with "yeah but Joe Burrow". So besides the obvious issue that one outlier doesn't mean the concerns aren't valid....

Joe Burrow has been in the league 4 years, he's been one of the leaders in sacks taken per game in all 4, and 2 of the 4 have ended with him out for the year. He's not even a running QB, he just takes an absurd number of shots in the pocket..... how long do we think Burrow is gonna last as a top QB? And then for Daniels... who is slighter than Burrow and runs a lot.... even more concern. I see concerns from people about hits on the running plays, but I think people are underrating how often QBs who take a ton of sacks get hurt IN the pocket, which you can't fix by sliding.
What is the case for Daniels? Is there one? At this point this board is fairly unanimous for Maye, but Adam Peters is a sharp guy. If the rumors are right then what is he seeing?
 

Cellar-Door

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What is the case for Daniels? Is there one? At this point this board is fairly unanimous for Maye, but Adam Peters is a sharp guy. If the rumors are right then what is he seeing?
Electric runner, accurate from the pocket (particularly on 1st reads), much better footwork in the pocket than Maye, good repeatable arm motion, lots of experience.... a lot of people even those who like Maye more (like say Klassen) think he has a very high floor as a Jalen Hurts style QB.
 
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The “Daniels has a high floor” narrative has always seemed a bit questionable to me.

He has been excellent on his first read, but easy to do when you have great receivers getting open quickly. I don’t know how he will fare in the pros if he doesn’t have WR who are far more talented than the CB’s they’re matched up with and he needs to go through progressions.

He was electric as a runner in college but he’s also not particularly elusive. He’s analogous to a RB who is one cut, hit the hole and outrun guys. Impressive in college but most of the guys he was outrunning aren’t even NFL camp bodies. He didn’t run the 40 (which is understandable) so I’d be concerned with how fast he actually is. So much of his value and ability to have a “high floor” is tied to his ability to run. If he can’t consistently get chunk plays, his value diminishes greatly unless you buy him as an elite passer (which he isn’t, yet anyway)

furthermore, his lack of agility/shiftiness is one of the reasons why he takes so many big hits. He’s decent but not special at evading defenders but again it’s mostly from pure speed and his initial vision into the open field - often the middle of the field or between the hashes. He’s going to have to learn to avoid contact or run to the sideline more which could reduce the number of big runs he has

and his arm strength is fine, but I’d be questioning his ability to rip the ball over the middle of the field in colder/windy weather.

lastly, he’s not super creative. He either hits a guy who gets quick separation, or he takes off and runs almost immediately. Any time he’s not doing one of those things, he seemingly gets sacked.

I love his upside and it wouldn’t surprise me if he is a special player. But to buy into a “high floor” you have to hope he can translate his running game to the NFL against bigger, faster guys without him getting hurt while simultaneously developing the ability to create more off platform and succeeding with WR who won’t get immediate separation.

I think he’s a true boom or bust guy. Either he’s a top 5-7 QB in the NFL or he’s out of the league (or traded for garbage) within 4 years. If he cans stay healthy and if his running translates to the NFL and if he’s paired with some good WR, there’s a good chance he will be a franchise QB. But I don’t think it’s automatic that he will be as electric as a runner in the pros and im not sure his passing ability will be good enough to be a high end QB without being the 2nd best QB runner in the league.
 

j44thor

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I agree, Daniels has no floor, lower than even Fields I'd argue because at least Fields is built more like a RB. The Hurts comparisons are laughable as you won't find two more dissimilar builds in the NFL. Hurts is in the top 1% strongest NFL players pound for pound. Daniels is about the last person you want running a QB sneak. Back to Fields, Daniels has the highest sack to pressure rate and lowest middle field throw rate to enter the NFL as a 1st rd pick since Fields.

Daniels floor is a more athletic Malik Willis.
 

DJnVa

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Cellar-Door

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Everyone has no floor, that's NFL QBs, but when you look at "likely to transfer skills early" I think Daniels does have the higher floor.

But the fact we're talking about Fields to me is an indication he DOES have a higher floor.

Like look at that draft, who do we think has shown the highest floor... it's Fields right? He was not good, but not terrible for CHI last few years just because of the rushing, when Mac imploded, when Wilson was a mess.... they brought way less to the table than the worst of Fields.

If Drake can't identify coverage what is his floor? If JJ can't what is his floor? If Daniels can't what is his floor?

To me the answer to that is...
Maye- big arm bad QB who is mobile but not a difference maker as a runner.
Daniels- Justin Fields right? pretty bad QB but speed still plays
JJ- again not a difference maker as a runner.
 

tims4wins

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Everyone has no floor, that's NFL QBs, but when you look at "likely to transfer skills early" I think Daniels does have the higher floor.

But the fact we're talking about Fields to me is an indication he DOES have a higher floor.

Like look at that draft, who do we think has shown the highest floor... it's Fields right? He was not good, but not terrible for CHI last few years just because of the rushing, when Mac imploded, when Wilson was a mess.... they brought way less to the table than the worst of Fields.

If Drake can't identify coverage what is his floor? If JJ can't what is his floor? If Daniels can't what is his floor?

To me the answer to that is...
Maye- big arm bad QB who is mobile but not a difference maker as a runner.
Daniels- Justin Fields right? pretty bad QB but speed still plays
JJ- again not a difference maker as a runner.
Agreed, I think Maye's floor is something like rookie year Josh Allen, who was a bad QB.
 

DJnVa

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Agreed, I think Maye's floor is something like rookie year Josh Allen, who was a bad QB.
Interested in seeing how this board reacts if JJ has a better season if he ends up in Minnesota than Maye might have here.
 

j44thor

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If I had to place a bet today which QB drafted after Caleb has the highest chance to be a starting QB 4yrs from now it would be Bo Nix. I think he has the highest floor but probably the lowest ceiling as well. He is a more athletic Mac Jones which I think can play for several years in the right system.

I think Jayden Daniels ends up his rookie season on IR and is not considered a starter within 2-3yrs similar to Trey Lance.

If Daniels succeeds he will be a unicorn as we have never seen a QB at his height/weight. He is Bryce Young but 3-4 inches taller. A lot of people knocked Young for his size myself included.
 

Cellar-Door

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Interested in seeing how this board reacts if JJ has a better season if he ends up in Minnesota than Maye might have here.
Some people will go nuts, most people will realize that situation matters.
Also might help keep it down that Mac was a limited QB who looked like the best in his class year 1.
 

Seels

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I don't think the problem of sacks ever gets fixed. I'm sure some of the guys on here know more, but I'm not a believer that a guy who gets sacked a lot in college ever turns it around.
 

j-man

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i get taking the qb its fair esp at 3 the only bad thing is if u take the wrong one mayo is likely out of a job in 3 years i would really think about mhjr or alt at 3 u need a 1 wr or joe ait just as bad i been reading mocks and they have u now taking J J just because he went to the same school as tom

basically if i was them i would try to balt zona or lac into moveing up and this way u get a ex 2nd round pick plus the guy u want
 

j-man

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If I had to place a bet today which QB drafted after Caleb has the highest chance to be a starting QB 4yrs from now it would be Bo Nix. I think he has the highest floor but probably the lowest ceiling as well. He is a more athletic Mac Jones which I think can play for several years in the right system.

I think Jayden Daniels ends up his rookie season on IR and is not considered a starter within 2-3yrs similar to Trey Lance.

If Daniels succeeds he will be a unicorn as we have never seen a QB at his height/weight. He is Bryce Young but 3-4 inches taller. A lot of people knocked Young for his size myself included.
Can i save your quote i agree 100% with it
 

Was (Not Wasdin)

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Interested in seeing how this board reacts if JJ has a better season if he ends up in Minnesota than Maye might have here.
Assuming health for his teammates, Joe Milton would have a better season in Minnesota than Caleb Williams would have here.


I don't think the problem of sacks ever gets fixed. I'm sure some of the guys on here know more, but I'm not a believer that a guy who gets sacked a lot in college ever turns it around.
This is my biggest problem with Daniels. By far, the lowest drop back to pass attempt ratio of any QB prospect over the last few years. Correcting this isnt a matter of footwork or mechanics-it’s asking a QB to change his style completely.
 

Cellar-Door

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Honestly my biggest concern is people like Fowler and Schefter hinting that Kraft would like them to take McCarthy. Backed up by McCarthy going on the Schefter pod and immediately doing some elite sucking up to Kraft... opens up talking about how cool and smooth Robert is how the team is in great hands... then "oh yeah Coach Mayo is part of successes too!" then playing up his connection with Brady. My hope is it's true Kraft is going to leave it to Wolf and the football people (who based on past stops I would guess rank it Maye/Daniels well ahead of McCarthy), but man, if Kraft has a role.... McCarthy fits perfectly into what he loves. We'll be hearing about how much he loves "Johnny", what an amazing kid he is, etc. etc.
 

Justthetippett

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Honestly my biggest concern is people like Fowler and Schefter hinting that Kraft would like them to take McCarthy. Backed up by McCarthy going on the Schefter pod and immediately doing some elite sucking up to Kraft... opens up talking about how cool and smooth Robert is how the team is in great hands... then "oh yeah Coach Mayo is part of successes too!" then playing up his connection with Brady. My hope is it's true Kraft is going to leave it to Wolf and the football people (who based on past stops I would guess rank it Maye/Daniels well ahead of McCarthy), but man, if Kraft has a role.... McCarthy fits perfectly into what he loves. We'll be hearing about how much he loves "Johnny", what an amazing kid he is, etc. etc.
I can literally hear those words coming out of Kraft's mouth. It's frightening. If it's JJM, then the uptick in trade chatter the past few days would also make sense. It may be more palatable for Wolf if they can trade down and still get JJM plus another R2 OT/WR prospect (at least) versus just Maye (though it's unclear how this will happen).
 
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rodderick

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As with Daniels, the more I watch of JJ, the less impressed I am. In a way, he's sort of the opposite of the guy he's being sold as? I don't think he's this great in structure, take what the defense gives you, patient in the pocket QB. To my eyes he has spray misses just as often as Maye, he's even worse at throwing behind guys on horizontal routes, to me he's very obviously an "aimer", as in he doesn't anticipate space well and throws a javelin straight to a spot instead of leading guys, I thought he was very slow to progress his reads if the designed option wasn't open... I don't know, I feel like his floor might be substantially lower than most people seem to think, but the athletic profile is better than most believe it to be, I think the arm is real, even if he's a long strider and needs his lower body to generate torque (which also leads to a lot of line drives and pretty much zero touch/ability to layer the ball) and his agility in small spaces is absolutely elite for a QB, though I wonder how good that'll do him with his smallish frame, can't envision him breaking many tackle attempts in the pocket. I like the physical traits, I like that he has experience in a more pro style offense and will throw the ball up the seam and attack the intermediate middle of the field, I like the mental makeup, I think his issues as a thrower are way harder to fix than Maye's and he's not developed as an in structure QB right now, maybe a great fit for a Shanahan offense in a Purdy "don't worry too much about processing the defense, just go where it's designed to go, otherwise try to make something happen with your agility" role. I'm in the minority that sees a vast gap between Maye and both these guys in terms of projecting what they could be at the NFL level.
 

brendan f

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Honestly my biggest concern is people like Fowler and Schefter hinting that Kraft would like them to take McCarthy. Backed up by McCarthy going on the Schefter pod and immediately doing some elite sucking up to Kraft... opens up talking about how cool and smooth Robert is how the team is in great hands... then "oh yeah Coach Mayo is part of successes too!" then playing up his connection with Brady. My hope is it's true Kraft is going to leave it to Wolf and the football people (who based on past stops I would guess rank it Maye/Daniels well ahead of McCarthy), but man, if Kraft has a role.... McCarthy fits perfectly into what he loves. We'll be hearing about how much he loves "Johnny", what an amazing kid he is, etc. etc.
I'm more concerned the Patriots actually like him and might take him at 3, especially if Washington takes Maye.
 

DJnVa

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I'm more concerned the Patriots actually like him and might take him at 3, especially if Washington takes Maye.
Russini and Graff (in The Athletic) seem to think it's more likely that they'd trade back then back up for McCarthy than take him at #3.

We'll know in about 28 hours.
 

Auger34

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I haven't watched any film on Maye or Daniels (I watched them both a decent amount in college)

However, it's interesting to me that it seems like the majority of "Draft Twitter" is Maye over Daniels while it seems like the vast majority of NFL decision makers are Daniels over Maye. (I say the NFL decision makers are Daniels over Maye just by putting together various rumblings from the likes of McShay, Riddick, Fowler, Graziano, Jeremiah).

What makes it even more interesting is that the guy that almost everyone compares Maye to Josh Allen...who was the exact opposite (draft twitter thought he sucked and roasted Buffalo for taking him).

No idea why that is but thought it was worth pointing out
 

nighthob

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I agree, Daniels has no floor, lower than even Fields I'd argue because at least Fields is built more like a RB. The Hurts comparisons are laughable as you won't find two more dissimilar builds in the NFL. Hurts is in the top 1% strongest NFL players pound for pound. Daniels is about the last person you want running a QB sneak. Back to Fields, Daniels has the highest sack to pressure rate and lowest middle field throw rate to enter the NFL as a 1st rd pick since Fields.
I don’t think anyone’s comparing their builds and I completely agree with you as regards Daniels as a runner. We just mean that JD’s value is tied up in his running ability and not his passing. But I’ve continuously made the point that he’s a very reckless runner for that build.
 

Ferm Sheller

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Russini and Graff (in The Athletic) seem to think it's more likely that they'd trade back then back up for McCarthy than take him at #3.

We'll know in about 28 hours.
I think it's possible, albeit maybe unlikely, that the Pats could take a QB at 3 and then sometime between that pick and another team's pick (say, Minn at 11) trade that QB to the other team, or maybe even trade the QB that they take at 3 *after* the other team picks a player that the Pats want. In other words, just because the Pats take a QB at 3, it doesn't mean that they'll keep him.
 

SuperManny

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I think it's possible, albeit maybe unlikely, that the Pats could take a QB at 3 and then sometime between that pick and another team's pick (say, Minn at 11) trade that QB to the other team, or maybe even trade the QB that they take at 3 *after* the other team picks a player that the Pats want. In other words, just because the Pats take a QB at 3, it doesn't mean that they'll keep him.
This seems like a safer move than trading back and potentially missing out on your target player although you have to be sure that other teams don't prefer JJ over the QB you take
 

Ferm Sheller

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This seems like a safer move than trading back and potentially missing out on your target player although you have to be sure that other teams don't prefer JJ over the QB you take
Right. For example, consider the following hypo, which doesn't seem too far-fetched: The Pats have Maye and McCarthy graded equally or nearly equally and would be happy with either. They draft Maye knowing that the Giants (at 6) covet him. The Giants "settle" for their second-choice, McCarthy, a few picks later, and the Pats tell the Giants they'll deal Maye for McCarthy plus.
 

rodderick

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I haven't watched any film on Maye or Daniels (I watched them both a decent amount in college)

However, it's interesting to me that it seems like the majority of "Draft Twitter" is Maye over Daniels while it seems like the vast majority of NFL decision makers are Daniels over Maye. (I say the NFL decision makers are Daniels over Maye just by putting together various rumblings from the likes of McShay, Riddick, Fowler, Graziano, Jeremiah).

What makes it even more interesting is that the guy that almost everyone compares Maye to Josh Allen...who was the exact opposite (draft twitter thought he sucked and roasted Buffalo for taking him).

No idea why that is but thought it was worth pointing out
A whoooole lot of that is draft Twitter updating their priors over the recent success of guys like Mahomes, Allen and Herbert (who was also widely disliked). More and more people are looking at traits and how QBs react to certain situations over mechanical polish, accuracy and overall production, while I think NFL guys are still more focused on that.

For instance, you also saw more love for Anthony Richardson from Draft Twitter than former NFL guys last year, while they were lower on Bryce Young than consensus. It doesn't necessarily mean they're right, but a very clear divide in evaluation has been created over the past few years.
 

DJnVa

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That seems more like an NBA trade. Do we see that as much in the NFL?
 

j44thor

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Lines have moved massively for Daniels to 2 from -400 yesterday to -1000 today.
Safe to say Maye will be there at 3. Unless NYG want to dramatically overpay to move from 3-6 I think Maye will be the pick tomorrow.
 

Justthetippett

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Lines have moved massively for Daniels to 2 from -400 yesterday to -1000 today.
Safe to say Maye will be there at 3. Unless NYG want to dramatically overpay to move from 3-6 I think Maye will be the pick tomorrow.
What does that overpay look like? 6, 47 and next year's R1 pick?