The Next Pats QB: Daniels or Maye?

[Greekca]

As the consensus continues to build that the Pats will take a QB at #3 and that the Bears will take Caleb Williams at #1, I thought it made sense to start a thread to share thoughts and info on these two guys. Ultimately, it seems like the Washington Commanders will actually be making the pick as to which of these two the Pats end up with, but the draft “experts” continue to be relatively high on both. The Pats have also set themselves up well with Brissett to take some of the first year burden off the rookie QB, so drafting a guy and needing him to sit certainly isn’t off the table. Feel free to share any thoughts, scouting reports, and videos below.

Maye
Pros: Elite frame, athletic, special arm talent, NFL caliber throws, everything physically that Mac Jones isn’t
Cons: Tough evaluation given poor surrounding talent, for every good throw/decision there is a wtf throw/decision, likely needs time with high-quality coaching to develop, high ceiling low floor, lots of poor tape under pressure, needs some technical tweaks

Daniels
Pro: Best 2023 tape of any QB in the draft, high quality throws/decisions, very mobile
Cons: Older prospect, very thin frame, elite traits didn’t really flash before being surrounded by elite talent, not the best deep ball

 

[Greekca]

 

[radsoxfan]

It seems like the safe play is to take whichever of Daniels/Maye is left, no one would really blame the new FO too much if that guy ends up being bad. But if their internal eval doesn't have any of the remaining QBs on the board as close to worth that pick, would they actually have the guts to pick someone else or trade back?

If they are high enough on 3 QBs its a moot point, just take who is left. But it would be a gutsy move to not take one of them, especially since I don't think Wolf has any long term assurances here. For self preservation purposes, I kind of expect him to be conservative and go with conventional wisdom. My guess is Maye.

 

[Greekca]

I am right there with you. I think the Commanders will and should take Daniels at #2. That leaves Wolf with the decision to take Maye or trade back and let someone else roll the dice.

I see the only way Wolf would get credit for nailing the pick is if he trades down and Maye turns into Zach Wilson. If he grabs a different guy at #3 and it is the right call, critics will say he should have traded down to grab them. If he takes Maye and he looks good, critics won’t give him credit because “he just took the guy that was leftover”. Very few scenarios in which Wolf will get proper credit for the call he has to make.

 

[Cellar-Door]

I was originally a Daniels over Maye guy but.... I think I've flipped. I still like Daniels and I think his floor is high, but... I think his ceiling might be lower than I originally thought, I don't think he's got Lamar ceiling, the arm isn't quite good enough, I also worry about his running style.

Maye just has tools Daniels doesn't, and for all that he makes the occasional baffling mistake and has technique issues, I think you can fix the technique and the tools take over.

 

[PRabbit]

I was a 'Trade down for Daniels' guy near the end of the season before he shot up mocks like Richardson did last year.

Daniels at 3 isn't something I'm all that comfortable with given he's an older prospect and his running style. If Maye is gone by #3 I'd rather see a tradedown.

 

[ManicCompression]

As the consensus continues to build that the Pats will take a QB at #3 and that the Bears will take Caleb Williams at #1, I thought it made sense to start a thread to share thoughts and info on these two guys. Ultimately, it seems like the Washington Commanders will actually be making the pick as to which of these two the Pats end up with, but the draft “experts” continue to be relatively high on both. The Pats have also set themselves up well with Brissett to take some of the first year burden off the rookie QB, so drafting a guy and needing him to sit certainly isn’t off the table. Feel free to share any thoughts, scouting reports, and videos below.

Maye
Pros: Elite frame, athletic, special arm talent, NFL caliber throws, everything physically that Mac Jones isn’t
Cons: Tough evaluation given poor surrounding talent, for every good throw/decision there is a wtf throw/decision, likely needs time with high-quality coaching to develop, high ceiling low floor, lots of poor tape under pressure, needs some technical tweaks

Daniels
Pro: Best 2023 tape of any QB in the draft, high quality throws/decisions, very mobile
Cons: Older prospect, very thin frame, elite traits didn’t really flash before being surrounded by elite talent, not the best deep ball

Can you go into detail on this? Yes, Daniels looks really good when he's throwing bombs to Malik Nabers, but... wouldn't Drake Maye also look good doing that? Best tape here seems to be best highlight film, which we know will be misleading when evaluating him. I find it very difficult to trust Daniels' last season when he doesn't have the track record of doing it over several years or the track record of doing it without the best wide receivers in the country. As I understand it, he can't throw over the middle of the field - how's he going to look in a pro style offense?

Could you explain what on tape is better than what may Maye can do? Or what he does on tape that's better than Caleb Williams?

Both him and McCarthy seem like the rising tide is raising their ships and I'm extremely wary of buying into either of those narratives.

 

[Greekca]

To me Daniels and Maye represent the spectrum of how a QB’s surrounding cast impacts their tape. Lots of QBs in recent years have been knocked for their all-star surrounding talent (Stroud, Young, Burrow, etc.) and others have been discounted based on their level of competition (Josh Allen, Carson Wentz, etc.). That is why I listed it as a con for both. Maye’s tape in 2023 has lots of pressure, which hinders the ability to judge how he reads through progressions. Conversely, Daniels hit a lot of wide open receivers and has quite a few deep completions that are a result of the WR not the throw.

The tape comment is less about the highlights and more about the consistent high level play from Daniels. He played a top to bottom solid season and really didn’t have a clunker of a game all year (hence why he won the Heisman). The range of outcomes between the highlight tape and the low light tape is narrowest for Daniels and easily the highest for Maye.

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

They need to draft Daniels. Maye is going to be an absolute bust.

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

They need to draft Maye. Daniels is going to be an absolute bust.

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

There, I'm covered for the next few years. Carry on.

 

[Van Everyman]

Well I hope they can convince Josh Harris Maye is awesome then.

Edit: or Daniel’s rather. I’m a moron.

 

[BaseballJones]

That's funny, @Kenny F'ing Powers - and yet, kind of spot on. I mean, there's enough information about either of these guys to excite you if the Pats draft them. They both have major plus plus tools and/or attributes. And yet, there's also reason to be concerned and to think that either of them might not pan out. Whoever the Pats draft will come with major upside but also flaws and if he fails, critics will always be able to point to those flaws and say, see, the Pats blew it. They should have seen that coming and traded out of the #3 and/or picked Harrison (a total stud at another position of extreme need).

And if the Pats' pick does work out, the critics will be able to approach it like the Sox and Mayer - they got lucky that this guy just happened to fall into their lap. Anyone dumb as rocks could have made that pick.

 

[j44thor]

Solid tape on Jayden here, like how quickly he gets through his progressions and isn't looking to run when his two studs are covered. Arm was stronger than I expected on some of the sideline throws, just a bit of concern if he can layer throws properly when needed.

 

[j44thor]

I'll be very interested in some similar breakdowns on Maye, one of the concerning things Daniel Jeremiah had to say about his tape is that he was occasionally leaving clean pockets which as we know was one of Mac Jones fatal flaws. Jeremiah also did say that there were some cases where Maye had no options because his line couldn't block and his WRs either didn't run correct routes or the play design was poor so he was a very tough read on film overall.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

There, I'm covered for the next few years. Carry on.

If Felger ever kicks the bucket, these posts will be your audition to be his replacement. Fantastic work.

 

[DJnVa]

It seems like the safe play is to take whichever of Daniels/Maye is left, no one would really blame the new FO too much if that guy ends up being bad. But if their internal eval doesn't have any of the remaining QBs on the board as close to worth that pick, would they actually have the guts to pick someone else or trade back?

If they are high enough on 3 QBs its a moot point, just take who is left. But it would be a gutsy move to not take one of them, especially since I don't think Wolf has any long term assurances here. For self preservation purposes, I kind of expect him to be conservative and go with conventional wisdom. My guess is Maye.

Word came down that the Pats seem to have no interest in dealing the pick. I read that as they're pretty comfortable with their evaluations of these guys and likely happy with whichever one is there.

 

[Cellar-Door]

I'll be very interested in some similar breakdowns on Maye, one of the concerning things Daniel Jeremiah had to say about his tape is that he was occasionally leaving clean pockets which as we know was one of Mac Jones fatal flaws. Jeremiah also did say that there were some cases where Maye had no options because his line couldn't block and his WRs either didn't run correct routes or the play design was poor so he was a very tough read on film overall.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q57Feywi5WI


This one from Klassen is nice, he's very high on him

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xzs30efzn8o

Colt McCoy breaking down some tape

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KDomjfWrcfk

Kurt Warner

 

[EL Jeffe]

I don't think Maye's "arm/arm talent" is nearly as special as people make it out to be (I assume when people use these terms they're talking about some sort of combination of velocity, accuracy, using different arm angles, and maybe distance--although distance doesn't really matter a whole lot anyhow). If that's the definition of arm talent, I'd certainly put him below Williams and Penix, and more or less on par with McCarthy. A lot of people (e.g., Evan Lazar) like to handwave away Maye's very real accuracy issues as a simple footwork problem that will get coached up and fixed at the NFL level, and I always find it funny how easily internet scouts think "coaching up" QBs is. If you're taking Drake Maye in the top 5, you're taking him based on what you hoped he become after 2022 versus what he was in 2023. That doesn't mean Maye is going to bust, but considering how often QBs do, it's not a bet I'd want to make. There's a whole graveyard of failed QBs who had "elite/special tools" and just needed to be "coached up" but never found success.

Personally, considering the offense AVP wants to run, I'd take Daniels, McCarthy, and Nix (yes Bo Nix) ahead of Maye. Old school west coast offense is all about having quick feet and a quick mind, and getting the ball out quickly, accurately, and on time. Maye's got a long, slow wind up, his feet aren't great, and he's not particularly accurate. I see Maye having more success in a classic Bruce Arians type offense (doing Ben Roethlisberger things) than what AVP will likely be running.

 

[brendan f]

Maye just has tools Daniels doesn't, and for all that he makes the occasional baffling mistake and has technique issues, I think you can fix the technique and the tools take over.

He's also significantly younger than Daniels. I think all his flaws are fixable. He's much better in the middle of the field than Daniels, had a worse line, and far fewer weapons.

 

[Toe Nash]

I'll be very interested in some similar breakdowns on Maye, one of the concerning things Daniel Jeremiah had to say about his tape is that he was occasionally leaving clean pockets which as we know was one of Mac Jones fatal flaws. Jeremiah also did say that there were some cases where Maye had no options because his line couldn't block and his WRs either didn't run correct routes or the play design was poor so he was a very tough read on film overall.

As your second sentence kind of gets at I don't think there is really much you can tell about this kind of thing on tape. We saw Mac seeing ghosts but while that was a stacked team it's not like he never had a free rusher in his face or took a hit as QB at Bama. Mac didn't really do this until last year either. NFL is a different level and there is going to be adjustment to adversity whether the guy went to Bama or went to Podunk State.

As I said in the other thread it seems like guys who have been top prospects for a long time, like through HS and every year of college, seem to do better on average in the pros than guys who climb based on their last year. I think Daniels is also a good prospect but for that reason, plus the arm strength difference, I'd prefer Maye. Also, Maye is 18 months younger -- if he transferred to LSU or a big school like that instead of going into the draft, maybe he looks even better than Daniels by the end of next season.

 

[j44thor]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q57Feywi5WI

This one from Klassen is nice, he's very high on him

I've not seen any of Klassen's work but 2min in and I'm shaking my head at the decision Maye makes to throw a ball up for grabs in the end zone. He had a ton of pressure so I'm not faulting Maye but that pass is probably picked off 50% of the time in the NFL. Just because the WR makes a play on the ball does not make that a good decision in the red area. Maye should have hit the hot read who is wide open on a short hitch/curl route to the same side he was reading the field.

Not impressed with the Klassen "breakdown" 5 cherry picked clips isn't telling me much. Haven't checked out the others yet but I'm really waiting to see what JT O'Sullivan has to say, hoping he breaks down these two this year.

 

[Cellar-Door]

I've not seen any of Klassen's work but 2min in and I'm shaking my head at the decision Maye makes to throw a ball up for grabs in the end zone. He had a ton of pressure so I'm not faulting Maye but that pass is probably picked off 50% of the time in the NFL. Just because the WR makes a play on the ball does not make that a good decision in the red area. Maye should have hit the hot read who is wide open on a short hitch/curl route to the same side he was reading the field.

Not impressed with the Klassen "breakdown" 5 cherry picked clips isn't telling me much. Haven't checked out the others yet but I'm really waiting to see what JT O'Sullivan has to say, hoping he breaks down these two this year.

Klassen is mostly just doing an overview on someone's show, I just posted him because he's pretty well thought of and he charts every throw (those aren't out yet). I will say, I agree with him that is not really throwing it up for grabs, CB is outside he drops it inside where the CB would have to go through the WR and has no real shot on it. Aggressive decision, but not really up for grabs, it's a pure 1v1 and the CB isn't really in position to pick that even in the NFL.

 

[EL Jeffe]

I like JT O'Sullivan, Kurt Warner and Kurt Benkert the most. I particularly like Benkert because he spent time in Green Bay and was in a couple of different west coast systems. He breaks down all the passes in a game and goes through the thought process with a pretty good attention to detail.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

He's also significantly younger than Daniels. I think all his flaws are fixable. He's much better in the middle of the field than Daniels, had a worse line, and far fewer weapons.

And much, much shittier coaching, which I've said countless times around here is so, so under discussed when it comes to college QB's and how to project them.

When Daniels decided to sit out the Bowl game, their backup QB, Garrett Nussmeier, went for 395 yards on 31 completions, 3tds (including the game winner to Thomas) against Wisconsin.

When Maye sat for his bowl game, their backup, Connor Harrell went for 207 yards (18/27), 1td, 2 interceptions, got sacked 7 times and they lost 30-10 to West Virginia.

 

[j44thor]

Klassen is mostly just doing an overview on someone's show, I just posted him because he's pretty well thought of and he charts every throw (those aren't out yet). I will say, I agree with him that is not really throwing it up for grabs, CB is outside he drops it inside where the CB would have to go through the WR and has no real shot on it. Aggressive decision, but not really up for grabs, it's a pure 1v1 and the CB isn't really in position to pick that even in the NFL.

He posted the charts at the end of the clip, his throws past 10yds middle/right are scary bad.

Did like the Duke tape breakdown McCoy did though McCoy himself is tough to listen to and watch at times.
Still that game embodied a lot of Maye, some fantastic reads and throws combined with some horrible decisions, especially the pick from his own end zone just thrown up to Duke ala Mac Jones. He did throw some really nice go balls though and should have had the late TD to Walker that Walker drops. He also showed some strong escapability on a couple 4th down plays and threw on the run extremely well. If you can coach the poor decisions out of him he has a very high ceiling but that is the 50M$$ question. What goes through his head to make him throw it up to Duke when he is passing from out of his own endzone. There was no NC player within 5-10 yards of that pass.

 

[Cellar-Door]

He posted the charts at the end of the clip, his throws past 10yds middle/right are scary bad.

Did like the Duke tape breakdown McCoy did though McCoy himself is tough to listen to and watch at times.
Still that game embodied a lot of Maye, some fantastic reads and throws combined with some horrible decisions, especially the pick from his own end zone just thrown up to Duke ala Mac Jones. He did throw some really nice go balls though and should have had the late TD to Walker that Walker drops. He also showed some strong escapability on a couple 4th down plays and threw on the run extremely well. If you can coach the poor decisions out of him he has a very high ceiling but that is the 50M$$ question. What goes through his head to make him throw it up to Duke when he is passing from out of his own endzone. There was no NC player within 5-10 yards of that pass.

I think those are actually reception perception's charts, similar but not exactly what he usually does.

Yeah, that is Maye in a nutshell and why at first I was really hesitant. He's got amazing tools, and often he makes really good reads, smart placement, everything you want.
Then he'll suddenly lose his footwork, or make a decision that is insane. I think it was one of the PFF draft guys (Sikkema maybe?) who said... Drake Maye doesn't make many mistakes... but all of his mistakes are just absolutely incomprehensible disasters.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

The question is kind of less fun, since it's out of our hands. I mean that shouldn't matter for how I look at it, but it kind of does. And it's never going to be my hands, but hopefully you know what I mean.

The bottom line is that the Washington Football Team, or whomever they trade to if they do, is going to pick the Patriots' next QB.

I suppose if I could get to a place where I viewed one guy as so inferior to the other that the Patriots should trade, it would be different. But it's just not something the Patriots have any control about, and for whatever reason a "who do we hope we end up with" question is less fun. Again, it's all psychological mind games so I shouldn't look at it that way but without the aspect of "what should the Patriots do" as part of the question, I've totally just defaulted to waiting to see which of the two it is before I get excited about one over the other.

 

[BaseballJones]

I think those are actually reception perception's charts, similar but not exactly what he usually does.

Yeah, that is Maye in a nutshell and why at first I was really hesitant. He's got amazing tools, and often he makes really good reads, smart placement, everything you want.
Then he'll suddenly lose his footwork, or make a decision that is insane. I think it was one of the PFF draft guys (Sikkema maybe?) who said... Drake Maye doesn't make many mistakes... but all of his mistakes are just absolutely incomprehensible disasters.

I cannot think of too many quarterbacks other than the elite hall of famers that didn't make some absolutely incomprehensibly catastrophic throws. I mean, I've posted a bunch of Tom Brady's horrific interceptions, some in the biggest games. Josh Allen - a guy we'd all take as our QB right now in a nanosecond - makes a ton of these kinds of decisions. It's just that the upside of all the greats is SO good that they overcome those mistakes.

We have no idea if Maye is that guy.

 

[Van Everyman]

The question is kind of less fun, since it's out of our hands. I mean that shouldn't matter for how I look at it, but it kind of does. And it's never going to be my hands, but hopefully you know what I mean.

The bottom line is that the Washington Football Team, or whomever they trade to if they do, is going to pick the Patriots' next QB.

I suppose if I could get to a place where I viewed one guy as so inferior to the other that the Patriots should trade, it would be different. But it's just not something the Patriots have any control about, and for whatever reason a "who do we hope we end up with" question is less fun. Again, it's all psychological mind games so I shouldn't look at it that way but without the aspect of "what should the Patriots do" as part of the question, I've totally just defaulted to waiting to see which of the two it is before I get excited about one over the other.

I must confess I don’t really know shit about either guy. I didn’t see either play. And given how many super busts there have been at QB in recent years who came into the NFL riding white horses I’m not champing at the bit to watch reams of tape.

That said, are there any trade up options we might consider from 3 to 2 or even 1? Is Williams any more of a sure thing in the eyes of this board than Daniels or Maye? If so, what might that be worth?

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

I must confess I don’t really know shit about either guy. I didn’t see either play. And given how many super busts there have been at QB in recent years who came into the NFL riding white horses I’m not champing at the bit to watch reams of tape.

That said, are there any trade up options we might consider from 3 to 2 or even 1? Is Williams any more of a sure thing in the eyes of this board than Daniels or Maye? If so, what might that be worth?

My uninformed opinion - yes he's more of a sure thing, and no I don't think the Bears move off the pick.

 

[nighthob]

I was originally a Daniels over Maye guy but.... I think I've flipped. I still like Daniels and I think his floor is high, but... I think his ceiling might be lower than I originally thought, I don't think he's got Lamar ceiling, the arm isn't quite good enough, I also worry about his running style.

This is my big problem with Daniels, especially his running style, that's instinctual and I don't think that you can wave that away with a "They'll coach that out of him". Given his frame (regardless of how much muscle he puts on I can look at his wrists, hips, and shoulders and see what that frame will take) some NFL LB is going to Drew Bledsoe him into next season.

He's also significantly younger than Daniels. I think all his flaws are fixable. He ... had a worse line, and far fewer weapons.

So he's completely ready to be New England's QB, then.

 

[ilol@u]

Daniels using his feet as a weapon is very important to the NFL now a days. Look at Patrick Mahomes in the Superbowl (and the entire playoffs) - he can run when he needs. The new NFL is heading towards the Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurt type of model. Especially in Foxborough, where you have the wind, rain, snow, and elements. Having a running QB is important.

I hope Mayo drafts Daniels and can build the culture where FA's want to come here.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Daniels using his feet as a weapon is very important to the NFL now a days. Look at Patrick Mahomes in the Superbowl (and the entire playoffs) - he can run when he needs. The new NFL is heading towards the Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurt type of model. Especially in Foxborough, where you have the wind, rain, snow, and elements. Having a running QB is important.

I hope Mayo drafts Daniels and can build the culture where FA's want to come here.

I think Maye is a better runner than Mahomes, somewhere near the Allen/Hurts level, behind Lamar. Daniels is above all but Lamar, but behind Lamar.

 

[Justthetippett]

The best thing for Wolf is that he doesn't really have a choice. He just picks who's left at #3. It's the ultimate insulation from criticism. He'll still be judged on results, but no one will begrudge him the pick. Kind of nice in Year 1. And a big change from the last time the Pats were in this position with the Bledsoe/Mirer choice in 1993..

I prefer Maye because Daniels' running and scrambling scares me. Injury risks on a slight frame are too high. They are different, obviously, in terms of their skill set, but both have great potential. Give me the guy more likely to stay on the field and not have massive breaks in his development to overcome.

That said, I am not going to be surprised if Daniels looks better early in his career. He's older, has much more experience, and can create outside of structure. Assuming Daniels stays healthy, it may take Maye a while to catch up.

 

[wilked]

Recognizing it takes two to tango.... What would it take to jump to #2? I'm sure this has been discussed in one of the other million threads.

Obviously it's a swap of #2 and #3. I expect Pats would need to throw in their 2nd rounder this year, and a future pick say next year. How high is that future pick to get the deal done?

Is this at all realistic? Pats only do it if they fall in love with either Maye or Daniels and sour on the other. On the other hand, if you're the Commanders, you only do it if you rate the two equally high, or alternatively rate them both low (and perhaps they draft MHJ).

They can then package #34 and their #36 to get into the middle of the first round and they still have pick #40. Allows them to nab one of the next-tier QBs in mid-1st round (Nix/Penix), so they come out of the 1st rd with MHJ and Nix, while still having pick #40 to start the 2nd.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Commanders, you mean.

 

[AlNipper49]

It seems like the safe play is to take whichever of Daniels/Maye is left, no one would really blame the new FO too much if that guy ends up being bad. But if their internal eval doesn't have any of the remaining QBs on the board as close to worth that pick, would they actually have the guts to pick someone else or trade back?

If they are high enough on 3 QBs its a moot point, just take who is left. But it would be a gutsy move to not take one of them, especially since I don't think Wolf has any long term assurances here. For self preservation purposes, I kind of expect him to be conservative and go with conventional wisdom. My guess is Maye.

Wait until WEEI starts giving out marching orders. You'll see, you'll see.

 

[Bowser]

Is anyone ready to consider McCarthy at #3? Compared to Maye, he's better under pressure, better at play action, has better footwork, a better throwing motion, is faster, quicker, and (probably) has a better arm.

Here's the under pressure stats, as per Our Lads:

• McCarthy: 63.5% comp, 9.5 yards/attempt, 111.8 rating
• Maye: 43.3% comp, 6.7 yards/attempt, 69.0 rating

And play action, again per Our Lads:

• McCarthy: 75.3% comp, 11.4 yards/attempt
• Maye: 67.8% comp, 8.8 yards/attempt

I'll show myself out.

 

[brendan f]

Is anyone ready to consider McCarthy at #3?

No.

 

[wilked]

Commanders, you mean.

Fixed thanks

 

[Cellar-Door]

Is anyone ready to consider McCarthy at #3? Compared to Maye, he's better under pressure, better at play action, has better footwork, a better throwing motion, is faster, quicker, and (probably) has a better arm.

Here's the under pressure stats, as per Our Lads:

• McCarthy: 63.5% comp, 9.5 yards/attempt, 111.8 rating
• Maye: 43.3% comp, 6.7 yards/attempt, 69.0 rating

And play action, again per Our Lads:

• McCarthy: 75.3% comp, 11.4 yards/attempt
• Maye: 67.8% comp, 8.8 yards/attempt

I'll show myself out.

Not particularly, in part because I don't care about college stats much at all, and certainly not between a guy tasked with carrying a bad team on his back and a guy who had almost no responsibilities on a run first offense on an elite team. I'd also say i don't think he has better footwork, or throwing motion, McCarthy has very similar issues, his are just more prevalent going left vs. Maye's mostly going right.

The offense makes a big difference to me...

Drake Maye: 506 dropbacks in 12 games: 42.2 per game. Pass rate of 54.3%
JJ McCarthy: 370 dropbacks in 15 games: 24.7 per game. Pass rate of 39.3%.

ADOT on non-screens
Drake Maye: 13.4
JJ McCarthy: 10.8

ADOT on non-play action passes.
Drake Maye: 11.3
JJ McCarthy: 8.8

Big time throws (PFF) and percentage

Drake Maye: 35 att / 174 attempts: 20.1%
JJ McCarthy: 20 BTT / 134 attempts: 14.9%


So basically, Maye was throwing a ton, he was throwing all kinds of passes, he was throwing screens, throwing downfield without any schemed assistance in PA/RPO and making a high percentage of big time throws.

McCarthy was basically throwing very infrequently, wasn;t asked to throw quickgame and screens, and was schemed up deep PA shots which inflate his ADOT and Y/A. I'd also say that many feel McCarthy was not very good at progressing through reads, he was often 1 read and done.

I actually think McCarthy has a lot of upside, but I don't think anything he's shown so far would make me want to draft him over Maye.


Edit- I actually think the better discussion is McCarthy vs. Daniels. I generally think McCarthy is a similar but lesser player than Maye, but when you comp him up against Daniels you get a more interesting decision because then it's much of the same comparisons as Maye/Daniels... Size, arm strength, raw potential, youth vs. potentially elite rushing, experience. Daniels excels in areas McCarthy struggles, but McCarthy has better tools and potential.

 

[ZMart100]

Daniels using his feet as a weapon is very important to the NFL now a days. Look at Patrick Mahomes in the Superbowl (and the entire playoffs) - he can run when he needs. The new NFL is heading towards the Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurt type of model. Especially in Foxborough, where you have the wind, rain, snow, and elements. Having a running QB is important.

I hope Mayo drafts Daniels and can build the culture where FA's want to come here.

Passing the ball is still the primary job description. I'd trade a little passing ability for a lot of running ability.

 

[brendan f]

Not particularly, in part because I don't care about college stats much at all, and certainly not between a guy tasked with carrying a bad team on his back and a guy who had almost no responsibilities on a run first offense on an elite team. I'd also say i don't think he has better footwork, or throwing motion, McCarthy has very similar issues, his are just more prevalent going left vs. Maye's mostly going right.

Yeah, if we are talking about QBs who played on elite teams, I'd much prefer Penix to McCarthy. I could actually see McCarthy being of interest to the Pats because he's a good fit in an AVP offense with all of the play action he did, but he stinks at throwing downfield and I don't see that changing at the next level. I can't imagine someone drafting him in the top 5, but the Vikings seem desperate so who knows.

 

[Toe Nash]

Even if you liked McCarthy more than Maye/Daniels you could probably trade down and get him (Maybe with MIN, and then trade back up with LAC to 5) or do a Rivers / Eli-esque draft day trade with NYG or someone. Drafting him at 3 would be stupid.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

That's funny, @Kenny F'ing Powers - and yet, kind of spot on. I mean, there's enough information about either of these guys to excite you if the Pats draft them. They both have major plus plus tools and/or attributes. And yet, there's also reason to be concerned and to think that either of them might not pan out. Whoever the Pats draft will come with major upside but also flaws and if he fails, critics will always be able to point to those flaws and say, see, the Pats blew it. They should have seen that coming and traded out of the #3 and/or picked Harrison (a total stud at another position of extreme need).

And if the Pats' pick does work out, the critics will be able to approach it like the Sox and Mayer - they got lucky that this guy just happened to fall into their lap. Anyone dumb as rocks could have made that pick.

They shouldn't spend one second worry about media/reaction to this pick, though. If they get it right, it's massive and they'll do fine....and even if the process to get there was great, if they get it wrong and the guy is a bust, odds are they will be gone in a couple years.

When the Celtics traded the 1st pick for 3rd and a future asset there was this whole meta discussion here about whether that was a good idea, how historically the drop betetween 1st and 3rd pick value was steep, etc. And the reality was (and a few said it at time) this is all abotu whether they scouted it correctly (narrator: they did)

So, worry about picking the right guy and nothing else matters in this situation.

 

[DJnVa]

I'll be very interested in some similar breakdowns on Maye, one of the concerning things Daniel Jeremiah had to say about his tape is that he was occasionally leaving clean pockets which as we know was one of Mac Jones fatal flaws. Jeremiah also did say that there were some cases where Maye had no options because his line couldn't block and his WRs either didn't run correct routes or the play design was poor so he was a very tough read on film overall.

Here is the one on Drake Maye:

 

[Reggie's Racquet]

Here is the one on Drake Maye:

So he had a bad offensive line and receivers that couldn't get separation. He's the perfect fit for us.

 

[chilidawg]

Even if you liked McCarthy more than Maye/Daniels you could probably trade down and get him (Maybe with MIN, and then trade back up with LAC to 5) or do a Rivers / Eli-esque draft day trade with NYG or someone. Drafting him at 3 would be stupid.

Not stupid if you think he's the better QB. Not drafting him at 3 because you think you could trade down and get him and then not getting him would be really stupid.

 

[j44thor]

Here is the one on Drake Maye:

Thanks, that was pretty consistent to the McCoy breakdown of another game. Some absolute great throws, nice runs and one inexplicable pass to the other team that was somehow dropped. He seems to have all the athletic skills and traits, just needs to learn when it is OK to take the sack or throw the ball away and not throw it into the middle of the field. Do wish he would have covered more of the game tape, the highlights seem to focus on the highs and lows but I'd like to see what his average play looks like. Everyone can look good on a highlight reel and anyone can look bad when you focus on their absolute worst plays. What matters most is how consistent you are play to play.