The Next Pats QB: Daniels or Maye?

Toe Nash

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Not stupid if you think he's the better QB. Not drafting him at 3 because you think you could trade down and get him and then not getting him would be really stupid.
You would obviously have a good idea that you'd still get him by trading down before doing so.
 

Cellar-Door

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So one thing Dane Brugler brought up today, which probably is good to keep in mind...
McCarthy isn't really a riser in the way you'd think. He was Brugler's number 19 overall prospect entering the season. Daniels rose a ton in the season, and people in the media got down on McCarthy in his limited role, but he noted that NFL teams were really high on McCarthy all along.
 

tims4wins

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The idea of trading down and drafting a QB (whether it is McCarthy, Nix, Penix) somewhere later in the 1st or early 2nd... wasn't there a study that this has basically never happened before for a team that actually needs a QB? Which doesn't mean that it can't or won't ever happen, but it's instructive that it has never happened before. If there is a higher ranked QB, you take that higher ranked QB; you don't trade down to take a lesser ranked QB. If you like the lesser ranked QB more, you would just take him with your pick.
 

Cellar-Door

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So one thing Dane Brugler brought up today, which probably is good to keep in mind...
McCarthy isn't really a riser in the way you'd think. He was Brugler's number 19 overall prospect entering the season. Daniels rose a ton in the season, and people in the media got down on McCarthy in his limited role, but he noted that NFL teams were really high on McCarthy all along.
Here is the podcast, lot of Maye stuff in here at various points. Brugler and Tice are both really high on him clearly a tier above Daniels/McCarthy for them:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tf6ob3_d2lM
 

Jimbodandy

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I don't think Maye's "arm/arm talent" is nearly as special as people make it out to be
People keep saying this. If you reject all of the professional scouting services in this regard, please say so. Maye's cannon is not a creation of SoSH members making it out to be special.


I think those are actually reception perception's charts, similar but not exactly what he usually does.

Yeah, that is Maye in a nutshell and why at first I was really hesitant. He's got amazing tools, and often he makes really good reads, smart placement, everything you want.
Then he'll suddenly lose his footwork, or make a decision that is insane. I think it was one of the PFF draft guys (Sikkema maybe?) who said... Drake Maye doesn't make many mistakes... but all of his mistakes are just absolutely incomprehensible disasters.
Yeah the WTF throws are concern.
 
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Oct 12, 2023
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So one thing Dane Brugler brought up today, which probably is good to keep in mind...
McCarthy isn't really a riser in the way you'd think. He was Brugler's number 19 overall prospect entering the season. Daniels rose a ton in the season, and people in the media got down on McCarthy in his limited role, but he noted that NFL teams were really high on McCarthy all along.
Yeah a few of the popular draft analysts, including Sikkema I believe, were saying back in the fall that the league was very high on McCarthy and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he was a first rounder (back when mocks had him going much lower)
 

Jeff Van GULLY

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Maye reminds me a lot of Philip Rivers with a bit of Josh Allen sprinkled in. Big and a strong arm but a lot of WTF plays.

Daniels is the guy for me. I think his floor is high because of his athleticism and even if he doesn't become the best passer, he's a guy a team could win a championship with.

A lot has been said about his supporting cast at LSU, sure, and I think that is where his season should be compared to Burrow's Heisman year, when he had Justin Jefferson and Jamar Chase as his two leading receivers and NFLer Terrence Marshall as the third option and Clyde Edwards-Helaire with 55 receptions. Having top talent on offense should not be seen as a negative in Daniels-Maye comparison. And certainly, Daniels' receivers, while still good (Malik Nabors primarily and Brian Thomas Jr.), don't at this point compare to the 2019 team's talent.
 
Oct 12, 2023
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Maye reminds me a lot of Philip Rivers with a bit of Josh Allen sprinkled in. Big and a strong arm but a lot of WTF plays.

Daniels is the guy for me. I think his floor is high because of his athleticism and even if he doesn't become the best passer, he's a guy a team could win a championship with.

A lot has been said about his supporting cast at LSU, sure, and I think that is where his season should be compared to Burrow's Heisman year, when he had Justin Jefferson and Jamar Chase as his two leading receivers and NFLer Terrence Marshall as the third option and Clyde Edwards-Helaire with 55 receptions. Having top talent on offense should not be seen as a negative in Daniels-Maye comparison. And certainly, Daniels' receivers, while still good (Malik Nabors primarily and Brian Thomas Jr.), don't at this point compare to the 2019 team's talent.
Isn’t Daniels’ floor in your scenario (his athleticism makes up for not being a great passer) essentially Justin Fields, which is to say…not good?

I know their skill sets as passers are different but I don’t think a great athlete at QB who isn’t a good thrower can succeed as a quality starter in the NFL.
 

Cellar-Door

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I think right now I'd have my QB rankings like this:
Tier 1
Caleb

Tier 2
Maye

Tier 3
Daniels
McCarthy
 

Curt S Loew

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I think right now I'd have my QB rankings like this:
Tier 1
Caleb

Tier 2
Maye

Tier 3
Daniels
McCarthy
Yep. And that's essentially what they were coming into the season(And Maye could also have been considered a Tier 1). Daniels obviously got a bump with his performance and the Heisman, but I agree this is still where they are.
 

nighthob

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I think right now I'd have my QB rankings like this:
Tier 1
Caleb

Tier 2
Maye

Tier 3
Daniels
McCarthy
I can agree on this, after watching a lot of video I'm beginning to warm to Maye. A lot just due to age, he might lose the tendency to make WTF throws as often as he does. My problem with JD is just that too much of his value comes from his running, and he runs extremely recklessly for a skinny guy. He's a guy I can see not making a second contract due to injury.
 

brendan f

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Tier 1
Caleb

Tier 2
Maye

Tier 3
Daniels
McCarthy
My problem with JD is just that too much of his value comes from his running, and he runs extremely recklessly for a skinny guy. He's a guy I can see not making a second contract due to injury.
Yeah, I worry about him getting injured and he has a good but not great arm. I'm more...

1) Williams

2) Maye

3)Daniels, Penix

4) McCarthy
 

EL Jeffe

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People keep saying this. If you reject all of the professional scouting services in this regard, please say so. Maye's cannon is not a creation of SoSH members making it out to be special.
Arm talent is kind of a meaningless term that people use as a proxy for any number of things. Maye certainly isn't as talented of a thrower as Caleb Williams. Joe Milton definitely has a bigger arm, as does Penix. Maye doesn't have a "cannon." It's not Anthony Richardson. It's not Josh Allen. Above average does not equal special. And I don't even know what you mean by "professional scouting services."
 

NomarsFool

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"oh man is there something there" seems like a bit of an odd statement. Especially after the "but" - makes it seem almost like a criticism is coming.

And what does "shouldn't have dug in" mean? Like, he wishes he hadn't seen him because now he'll be disappointed he won't be there at #3?
 
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Cellar-Door

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Is it hard to have good footwork when there only you and a receiver on the field?

And if mechanics and footwork were as good as he's seen, shouldn't the throws be better than "good"?
Footwork... Probably, though it depends what they are doing mechanics though can be funky no matter what.
 

Tim Salmon

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And what does "shouldn't have dug in" mean? Like, he wishes he hadn't seen him because now he'll be disappointed he won't be there at #3?
I think he’s lamenting that McCarthy WILL be there at #3, and now his armchair decision is more difficult because he peeked at the tape and found a new binky.

And that’s bad for armchair drafting, because McCarthy isn’t a good “value” at #3.
 

boca

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Jayden Daniels Pro Day weigh in:
Height: 6-3
Weight: 210 pounds
 

Bowser

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I'd be fine with Daniels for sure, as he's as good as a prospect as one could realistically hope for. However...

His weight is still concerning. Sure, 210 isn't terrible, but 210 and he doesn't run the 40 or 3-cone, and he's wearing a long-sleeved hoodie while throwing, in an indoor facility while dudes like Nabors are shirtless? I'm sorry -- and don't stone me here -- it's fairly obvious he added 10-15 lbs of bad weight that he's not going to keep on. And if he does, he's probably not running a 4.4.
 

Cellar-Door

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View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I8YcHzFHt3A


Brugler/Tice on the QBs with Robert Mays. Nice breakdowns on the top guys.

They're both big Drake Maye guys as they have been throughout.
Also good to hear Brugler on McCarthy since he was one of the earliest guys saying the league was going to love McCarthy (had him top 20 pre-season, dropped him a bit in season in part because like a lot of guys he thought he was going back to school).
 

DJnVa

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Here's Evan's full article on Daniels' pro day. He sums it up by saying Daniels would be a home run selection for the Patriots at #3.
Interesting. In his pods leading up to this he's seemed to lean more towards Maye as a better "fit" for the type of offense AVP wants to run, although he did say that he assumed AVP would be able to tweak his base offense enough to play to Daniels strengths as opposed to fitting him into something not built for his style.

With Maye's Pro Day today, I'll be interested in reading his take on that.
 

Cellar-Door

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View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I8YcHzFHt3A


Brugler/Tice on the QBs with Robert Mays. Nice breakdowns on the top guys.

They're both big Drake Maye guys as they have been throughout.
Also good to hear Brugler on McCarthy since he was one of the earliest guys saying the league was going to love McCarthy (had him top 20 pre-season, dropped him a bit in season in part because like a lot of guys he thought he was going back to school).
So this has one of the worries I have about Daniels (besides that he's totally not going to be a real 210), which is he basically never moves/runs to throw. He throws, or he runs, eyes down never looks to create.
 

DGreenwood

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Interesting. In his pods leading up to this he's seemed to lean more towards Maye as a better "fit" for the type of offense AVP wants to run, although he did say that he assumed AVP would be able to tweak his base offense enough to play to Daniels strengths as opposed to fitting him into something not built for his style.

With Maye's Pro Day today, I'll be interested in reading his take on that.
He may believe that Maye would be a home run too. I don't think those are mutually exclusive.
 

nighthob

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His weight is still concerning. Sure, 210 isn't terrible, but 210 and he doesn't run the 40 or 3-cone, and he's wearing a long-sleeved hoodie while throwing, in an indoor facility while dudes like Nabors are shirtless? I'm sorry -- and don't stone me here -- it's fairly obvious he added 10-15 lbs of bad weight that he's not going to keep on. And if he does, he's probably not running a 4.4.
Yeah, I look at those wrists and I just don’t want that guy running the way he does. And I’m with you on the 210, that might be a Mickey Ds 210 that won’t last.

So this has one of the worries I have about Daniels (besides that he's totally not going to be a real 210), which is he basically never moves/runs to throw. He throws, or he runs, eyes down never looks to create.
He definitely has the highest error bars of the big three this draft. If he’s the guy left I’d be awfully nervous about handing him the keys.
 

Cellar-Door

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Maye won't be there at #3.
Yeah, I feel like it's going to be weeks/months of talk about it and then come the draft it will be exactly what it was over a year ago... Caleb at 1, Maye at 2.
I'll be disappointed of course, but it seem inevitable, Maye just has so much more ceiling, and there are some concerns that the higher floor that you'd expect from Daniels may not really be there.
 

Gash Prex

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I’ve tried not to take a position on Maye versus Daniels to avoid disappointment but I’m fully on the Maye bandwagon right now unfortunately as I think he goes #2
 

BaseballJones

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Jayden Daniels is an Uber-talented QB prospect that just put up an absolutely ridiculous season in the SEC. I would rather have Maye too, but Daniels would be a hell of a consolation prize for a team needing a QB.

Just to remind people:

72.2% passing, 3,812 yds, 11.7 y/a, 40 td, 4 int, 135 rushes, 1,134 yds, 8.4 y/a, 10 rush td, 0 fumbles

So he accounted for 4,946 yards on 462 touches (10.7 yds/touch), 50 (!) touchdowns, against just FOUR turnovers.

And that was in the SEC, not in some joker league. He's a tremendous prospect.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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Yeah, I feel like it's going to be weeks/months of talk about it and then come the draft it will be exactly what it was over a year ago... Caleb at 1, Maye at 2.
I'll be disappointed of course, but it seem inevitable, Maye just has so much more ceiling, and there are some concerns that the higher floor that you'd expect from Daniels may not really be there.
You don't say.

Meh. This is the kind of shit that people say before every draft. The media machine makes the draft 90% more interesting than it ends up actually being.

As far as I'm concerned, the only thing that ends up being of interest is what order Maye/Daniels goes, and I think we're already in the media spin cycle with regards to that, too. Pretty sure this shakes out exactly how we thought it would 2 months ago. Williams-Maye-Daniels in that order.

Despite the campaigning, Chicago knows Fields isn't the answer. Washington needs a QB. The Patriots finally remember what it's like to have a shit QB. Unless getting blown away, none of these teams are trading the pick or drafting Harrison. This is the draft media BS we all have already acknowledged exists.
 
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snowmanny

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Yesterday on NFL Radio they were debating whether Daniels should really go first. Like first overall. Then they discussed whether Nabors would go before Harrison.

Anyway, I'm happy that the Patriots have a top 3 pick.
 

brendan f

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Yeah, I feel like it's going to be weeks/months of talk about it and then come the draft it will be exactly what it was over a year ago... Caleb at 1, Maye at 2.
I'll be disappointed of course, but it seem inevitable, Maye just has so much more ceiling, and there are some concerns that the higher floor that you'd expect from Daniels may not really be there.
Yeah, agree. The ceiling is too high for Washington to pass him up.

The Hurts comp from the Athletic guys feels pretty apt for Daniels. I'd be fine with that.

Kraft's comments the other day not fully endorsing Wolf as potential GM was in some respects typical owner-speak. But by placing major emphasis on finding a QB that may put pressure on Wolf to stay at 3 and take Daniels even if he has the opportunity to trade down. Put another way: if Wolf ends up trading down he gets respect in the cojones department.
 

Caspir

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For the folks concerned about Daniels because of his weight, Trevor Lawrence is 3 inches taller and weighed 3 pounds more than Daniels at the combine. Unless you really think he’s going to scramble and try to truck through Chris jones instead of sliding, I don’t think size is a big concern.
 
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DJnVa

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Lazar said that seeing him in person, he's not a "string bean" like he was concerned about, more just a lean, well-built athlete.

He also did a cross-sport comparison. He said Daniels is like a really good three-point shooting team. When they are playing their game they're going to light you up, and every once in a while they will blow your doors off. But on nights those shots are not falling, it will be ugly unless he develops other parts of his game. But he also said he's fully worthy of being a top 3 pick.
 

Cellar-Door

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For the folks concerned about Daniels because of his weight, Trevor Lawrence is 3 inches taller and weighed 3 pounds more than Daniels at the combine. Unless you really think he’s going to scramble and try to truck through Chris jones instead of sliding, I don’t think size is a big concern.
Lawrence has struggled with injury and fumble issues getting blown up as a much less frequent and aggressive runner. Also... Lawrence was playing at close to that weight at Clemson and 21 years old who added weight in the NFL. Nobody at all believes that Daniels played at 210 and he didn't get weighed at the combine which raises real questions about accuracy, he probably plays at 200 or 195. Daniels is also 23 and has been in a weight program for 5 years, at 21 he was 170 pounds (LISTED!), he's just a much smaller framed player at the shoulders, he's probably going to max out at a playing weight under 210. Lawrence looks like he's playing at over 220 at this point.

Edit- I actually think Lazar's comment is important and a negative. If he was a string-bean you could add weight, he's maxing out his weight and still coming up light.
 

EL Jeffe

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If there is any football study that shows any correlation between weight and susceptibility to injuries, I'm all ears. I'm not aware of any.
 

Cellar-Door

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If there is any football study that shows any correlation between weight and susceptibility to injuries, I'm all ears. I'm not aware of any.
Generally no. Nobody has really done a good one, and in terms of predictions you'd probably be looking to exclude certain injury types, plus it's really likely BMI over weight, etc. etc.

The sample would probably be too small and difficult to control to make any real conclusions.
 

MuellerMen

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Brugler/Tice on the QBs with Robert Mays. Nice breakdowns on the top guys.

They're both big Drake Maye guys as they have been throughout.
Also good to hear Brugler on McCarthy since he was one of the earliest guys saying the league was going to love McCarthy (had him top 20 pre-season, dropped him a bit in season in part because like a lot of guys he thought he was going back to school).
Disclaimer: I don't watch college football and in no universe known to humanity would I be considered a draftnik. I was just stuck by how Brugler and Tice described JJ McCarthy. The good arm - not great, but better than Mac - the poise, the ability to step up in key moments, the "intangibles." Honestly, and perhaps absurdly (and not just because of the Michigan connection), it made me think of Brady, who also didn't have much game film, relatively speaking, because of the whole co-quarterback issue. Drake Maye, on the other hand, seems to me to be more in the mold of Brett Favre, a huge thrower with a gunslinger mentality. Or Zach Wilson, whom both Brugler and Tice liked as well. For those who know a whole lot more than me, is Drake Maye's potential similar to what Zach Wilson's was in 2021? Or are there significant differences? Right now, if it was between Jaylen Daniels and JJ McCarthy, I'd take McCarthy. On the fence about Maye.
 

EL Jeffe

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I'm just not seeing much reason to care about how much Daniels weighs. He has 5 years of sustained durability in college and I'm curious why people think that's going to suddenly change at the NFL level.
 

Cellar-Door

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Disclaimer: I don't watch college football and in no universe known to humanity would I be considered a draftnik. I was just stuck by how Brugler and Tice described JJ McCarthy. The good arm - not great, but better than Mac - the poise, the ability to step up in key moments, the "intangibles." Honestly, and perhaps absurdly (and not just because of the Michigan connection), it made me think of Brady, who also didn't have much game film, relatively speaking, because of the whole co-quarterback issue. Drake Maye, on the other hand, seems to me to be more in the mold of Brett Favre, a huge thrower with a gunslinger mentality. Or Zach Wilson, whom both Brugler and Tice liked as well. For those who know a whole lot more than me, is Drake Maye's potential similar to what Zach Wilson's was in 2021? Or are there significant differences? Right now, if it was between Jaylen Daniels and JJ McCarthy, I'd take McCarthy. On the fence about Maye.
Maye is considered a better prospect than Wilson, better size, more rushing upside, more high level performance against good competition.
 

BaseballJones

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I'm just not seeing much reason to care about how much Daniels weighs. He has 5 years of sustained durability in college and I'm curious why people think that's going to suddenly change at the NFL level.
I'm with you. The weight isn't a problem for me at all. There are tons of receivers who are built more slender too, and many of them seem to hold up just fine. He's got a big arm, can really throw it, is amazing on his feet, and has had incredible success in the toughest conference in college.

I know Mac was also highly successful in the SEC (so SEC success doesn't automatically mean you'll be good in the NFL), but he and Daniels are completely different players.