Rather than "top 3 in system", a better comp would be "top 50" or "top 100" in all of MLB.
I don't think a lot of those "top 3" prospects were that highly regarded.
This is absolutely correct. Right now Mayer and Anthony are the two most highly regarded Sox Prospects since probably Devers. Casas was never as well regarded as them. Most these names listed are ranked less favorably than Cedanne Rafaela. That isn't to say they're locks to be productive players, but I think the premise is a little disingenuous unless you look at ranking across baseball rather than simply organizational ranking.
Everyone on this list under Casas and Duran is basically done (save Bryan Mata, but he's most likely a bust). Let's take a closer look at each:
1. Darwinzon Hernandez never appeared in a national top 100. He had electric stuff but very few people thought he could start. The command issues wouldn’t allow for that and as such he was a good, but not great prospect. We all know the deal with his career. He had some flashes in the pen, but washed out due to command.
2. Garin Cecchini was a super well regarded high school prep SS who came inton the organization with significant questions about his health and his ultimate defensive position. I’m frankly surprised he enver made a top 100 list. He was a very solid prospect. It didn’t work out as while he had a good hit skill, he didn’t do much to impact the baseball when he made contact and his defense relegated him toa corner OF.
3. Michael Chavis appeared in top 100 lists in 2018 and 2019, never being ranked higher than 79. He was an okay prospect, but like Chavis before him there were constant questions about where he’d end up positionally. If 2019 Chavis were magically transported into this system he’d probably rank around Nick Yorke. A guy worth following, with some major league skills but some clear shortcomings.
4. Henry Owens was a legit prospect. He made multupe top 100 lists (normally around 50). MLB pipeline was out of step with the rest of the publications, always ranking him higher than BA or BP, he peaked at 19 for them in 2019. If he were in our system today, he’d absolutely be our top pitching prospect, and he’d be in a fight with Teal and Rafael for the 3rd spot in the org.
5. Bobby Dalbec also appeared in several top 100 lists. He peaked at 75. He other rankings were in the 90s. Again, he’s more Rafaela than Roman Anthony.
6. Bryan Mata has never been nationally ranked. He absolutely was (is?) and intriguing arm but he’s never been able to stay healthy. Command has also always been an issue. Bryan Mata at his peak was nowhere near as well regarded as the current Boston trio of prospects.
7. Jay Groome was a legit prospect. He was considered for 1.1 in the draft but he fell in the draft due to signability questions and concerns about make up (which appeared to be totally unfair and possibly fed by the Padres to lower his price tag). He appeared in every publication after the draft. Anyone who followed him knows what happened next (injuries, loss of stuff, irrelevance). He received national rankings for how good he looked as an amateur but he never had sustained periods of success in the minors (unlike Mayer, Anthony, and Teal).
8. Anderson Espinosa was traded in part due to the fact that Boston had drafted Jay Groome. Awesome prospect. Filthy stuff. One of the best looking pitchers evaluators had ever seen as a teenager. His arm blew up with the Padres, he came back, it blew up again. He’s now a crappy reliver. TINSNAPP. Espinosa made a ton of lists, deservedly so. I don’t think I need to explain why a teenage pitching prospect is inherently more risky than a SS, C or CF.
9. Blake Swihart was a legit prospect. Made multiple top 20 lists in 2015. This is the first guy on this list that I think you can point to as a cautionary allegory. I have no qualms with that. The overall point is correct. Prospects, even good ones, fail all the time. Blake Swihart was a very good prospect.
10. Lars Anderson is another legit prospect that you can make this comparison to Anthony, Mayer and Teel. Was on every national publication for 3 years in a row. Peaked in the top 20.
11. Ryan Kalish was a good prospect who made several national top 100 lists. He peaked at 60. Other rankings were closer to 100. A prospect for sure… again, more like Rafaela or Nick Yorke than Roman Anthony.
12. Will Middlebrooks made several top 100 lists in 2012. All in the 50s. Another good but not elite prospect. He had some success in the majors, hit a rough patch and then severely broke his leg ending his career. His minor league track record is more similar to Nick Yorke than the 3 guys this post is about.
13. Sam Travis never appeared on a top 100 list. A hell of a NCAA hitter, you could argue that he’s kind of like Kyle Teal, without the minor league success, or the ability to play catcher. Some people really liked him on draft day (Keith Law amusingly preferred Travis to his teammate, Kyle Schwarber) but yeah, he’s just a name on this list. I don’t think there’s any meaningful lesson to be learned from Sam Travis, here.
14. Felix Doubount never appeared in a top 100 list. He was never a well regarded or well known prospect. He sort of came out of nowhere in 2010. Surprised at the negative career Bwar, I assumed he was above water.
15. Casey Kelly is another legit prospect who immediately after being drafted and excelling in the low minors, was a top 50 prospect. He was never a top 20 guy, though. He was also a pitcher, who also fell apart due to injuries. I’m not sure how helpful Casey Kelly is as a comp to 3 position players.
16. Anthony Ranaudo was a successful college pitcher who made the back end of a couple top 100 lists before ever registering a pitch in affiliated ball, due to his college success. Once he got into affiliated ball he stock plummeted and he was seen as a bust. HE did manage to turn around his trajectory and get a cup of coffee in the majors due to an excellent 2013 and 2014, after having been largely written off. He never appeared in a top 100 list after throwing a single pitch in affiliated ball though, so I don’t think you can really claim he was super well regarded.
Of all the names in the list provided only a handful were as well regarded as Mayer, Anthony and Teal. I'd list them as:
-Betts (cheating a bit because he graduated before he could be rated after his breakout)
-Devers
-Moncada
-Benintendi
-Swihart
-Anderson
Of that population, you got 2 real stars, 2 solid contributors with warts, and 2 busts.
I think most of us are not expecting Anthony, Teal and Mayer to all be stars. If we're lucky, 1 will be a star, 1 will be a decent regular and 1 will be a bust.