The Championship Outlook: 2015 and beyond

[Kevin Youkulele]

 
Additionally, neither of them seem to have the slightest interest in taking a job in media, which is the typical quasi-retirement route for coaches and marquee players that are looking to dial it back a bit.   There's no siren's song calling them out of the game with the prospect of making a few million a year sitting on their ass talking about themselves.

I think Parcells briefly took a media job at ESPN basically doing after-action analysis, kind of like the coaches' clicker feature on NBC.  He was better at it than Dungy or anyone else I've seen do it - amazingly insightful and able to convey what he meant almost effortlessly.  Belichick probably would be too, but I doubt it will ever happen since he and the media have a rather frosty relationship.

 

[theapportioner]

I'd love to hear the more knowledgeable folk here opine on whether Malcolm Butler is a flash in the pan, or whether he is someone who could play a big role in the secondary for years to come. Obviously the Patriots thought highly enough of him to keep him on the 53 man roster, which included a deep group at CB, after being invited to training camp after being undrafted. Various reports have mentioned his speed and good hands (the latter of which we all know about), and he certainly demonstrated good recognition of the play at the end of the game.

 

[DJnVa]

 
I agree with this.  I think the AFCE could be better -- potentially a lot better -- if BUF and NYJ find competent QBs. 

 
That is a humongous "if" though. It's the biggest "if" in the NFL.

 

[BornToRun]

I'd love to hear the more knowledgeable folk here opine on whether Malcolm Butler is a flash in the pan, or whether he is someone who could play a big role in the secondary for years to come. Obviously the Patriots thought highly enough of him to keep him on the 53 man roster, which included a deep group at CB, after being invited to training camp after being undrafted. Various reports have mentioned his speed and good hands (the latter of which we all know about), and he certainly demonstrated good recognition of the play at the end of the game.

This crossed my mind too and I think one thing that works in his favor is his dedication. He was a UDFA 5th string CB but had studied up enough to know exactly what was going on and how to react to it on the goalline. He also made a heads up play to push Kearse out of bounds on the ridiculous catch.

Those things tells me he's a hard worker that studies and listens to his coaches. He's smart and I think that, even if he doesn't become a star, he can be a DB version of Nink in the sense that you can trust him to put in the full effort and do his job.

 

[alydar]

Perhaps as a corollary to the adage that you're never as good as you look when you win or as bad as you look when you lose, in thinking about 2015, it may be useful to think about the various places where the season almost ended for the worse: How would we have viewed the Patriots' deficiencies? What would we have said were the Achilles Heels that were ultimately their undoing? And let me be clear, I am not complaining at all, just trying to think how I'd view this season if things had turned out differently -- what positions / personnel would I spend the post-season obsessing over?
 
Baltimore game. An opponent that ran the ball effecively (Forsett averaged 5.4 ypc on 24 touches) and who forced the Patriots to adandon the run (excluding Brady, 7 attempts for 14 yards). They spread the ball out effectively -- 6 receivers had at least 3 catches. Our D didn't record a sack. So both upgrades at O-line and D-line would have been the call.
 
Seahawks game. Seattle lived by the big play, with Wilson averaging 11.8 yards per attempt and 20.1 yards per completion. Ryan and Arrington, in particular, were beaten badly down the field on numerous occasions. D-line rarely got pressure on Wilson, and allowed a few very long runs by over-pursuit.

 

[DJnVa]

Seahawks game. Seattle lived by the big play, with Wilson averaging 11.8 yards per attempt and 20.1 yards per completion. Ryan and Arrington, in particular, were beaten badly down the field on numerous occasions. 

 
Eh, without the nice catch in 2nd quarter by Matthews and the Kearse circus catch, Wilson would have been 10/21 for 174 yards.
 
Yes, the plays were made, but one was sheer luck, the other Arrington was right there, Matthews was just taller.
 
And on Lynch's long one, there wasn't a DB on him. Those 3 plays were 110 of the 247 yards.

 

[Rico Guapo]

Perhaps as a corollary to the adage that you're never as good as you look when you win or as bad as you look when you lose, in thinking about 2015, it may be useful to think about the various places where the season almost ended for the worse: How would we have viewed the Patriots' deficiencies? What would we have said were the Achilles Heels that were ultimately their undoing? And let me be clear, I am not complaining at all, just trying to think how I'd view this season if things had turned out differently -- what positions / personnel would I spend the post-season obsessing over?
 
Baltimore game. An opponent that ran the ball effecively (Forsett averaged 5.4 ypc on 24 touches) and who forced the Patriots to adandon the run (excluding Brady, 7 attempts for 14 yards). They spread the ball out effectively -- 6 receivers had at least 3 catches. Our D didn't record a sack. So both upgrades at O-line and D-line would have been the call.
 
Seahawks game. Seattle lived by the big play, with Wilson averaging 11.8 yards per attempt and 20.1 yards per completion. Ryan and Arrington, in particular, were beaten badly down the field on numerous occasions. D-line rarely got pressure on Wilson, and allowed a few very long runs by over-pursuit.

 
Being greedy here, but I think you could argue they need some help on both lines in addition to a burner WR type if Tyms leaves.

 

[bakahump]

I would agree with both lines and dont think we needed near fatal heart attacks in the playoffs to show us that.  It is what it is.  We knew Vince was getting older....that COULD be addressed by some help from Easley and a touch more improvement from Siliga.  A new DE would be nice despite a very good year from Nink and a solid (but not a "next step" year we all hoped) from CJones.
 
OL....well a year older Stork helps....a year older Conolly doesnt.  We need a G (Maybe Kline or Fleming make the leap) and a Backup T (unless you think Cannon is that guy).
 
A Safety (Chung needs an upgrade before teams learn to exploit him) and another WR/TE would also be nice as an injury would have left us slim.
 
Finally we need more bodies at RB.  Are they on the Practice Squad (White?) FAs (either some of thier own or others) or Lower round Draftees.
 
An Arrington replacement (Butler???) would also be nice.  Arrington had a really good year UNTIL it counted and could have cost the team a SB win based on his shitacular performance.  Those happen too much to him on the biggest stage imho.
 
 
None of that is surmountable....I mean we won with about the same questions this year..... But Revis needs to be back and a few key pieces to if not "make the leap"....then at least take a step forward.

 

[DJnVa]

 
Being greedy here, but I think you could argue they need some help on both lines in addition to a burner WR type if Tyms leaves.

 
While I'd love a burner, if Tyms leaves I don't think we really need to worry about his 5 catches for 82 yards. There are lots of fast guys out there.
 

 

[Shelterdog]

 
While I'd love a burner, if Tyms leaves I don't think we really need to worry about his 5 catches for 82 yards. There are lots of fast guys out there.
 

 
He's also an exclusive rights free agent (like Siliga and Develin) so we can keep him cheap.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Here is the current depth chart
 
QB: Brady, Jimmy G
RB: Blount, Gray, Bolden, White, Gaffney
WR: Edelman, Amendola, LaFell, Boyce
TE: Gronkowski, Hooman, Wright
C: Stork
LG: Cannon, Devey
RG: Wendell, Kline
LT: Solder
RT: Vollmer
P: Allen
K: none
ST: Slater, no snapper
 
DE: Ninkovich, Jones, Moore, Buchanan
DT: Wilfork, Vellano, Ch. Jones, Easley
LB: Hightower, Collins, Mayo, Fleming, Gordon
CB: Revis(technically), Browner, Ryan, Arrington, Dennard, Butler
S: Chung, Harmon, Wilson, Ebner
 
Practice Squad
Garrett Gilbert, QB
Chris Barker, OL
Jake Bequette, DE
Justin Green, CB
Caylin Hauptmann, DL
Jonathan Krause, WR
Eric Martin, LB
Deonte Skinner, LB
Daxton Swanson, DB

 

[Stitch01]

Perhaps as a corollary to the adage that you're never as good as you look when you win or as bad as you look when you lose, in thinking about 2015, it may be useful to think about the various places where the season almost ended for the worse: How would we have viewed the Patriots' deficiencies? What would we have said were the Achilles Heels that were ultimately their undoing? And let me be clear, I am not complaining at all, just trying to think how I'd view this season if things had turned out differently -- what positions / personnel would I spend the post-season obsessing over?
 
Baltimore game. An opponent that ran the ball effecively (Forsett averaged 5.4 ypc on 24 touches) and who forced the Patriots to adandon the run (excluding Brady, 7 attempts for 14 yards). They spread the ball out effectively -- 6 receivers had at least 3 catches. Our D didn't record a sack. So both upgrades at O-line and D-line would have been the call.
 
Seahawks game. Seattle lived by the big play, with Wilson averaging 11.8 yards per attempt and 20.1 yards per completion. Ryan and Arrington, in particular, were beaten badly down the field on numerous occasions. D-line rarely got pressure on Wilson, and allowed a few very long runs by over-pursuit.

 
What to do with the secondary is the top focus given the contract situations
 
One thing people havent mentioned....is Browner a lock next year? Obviously a contributing player, but a $5.5MM cap hit that costs zero to cut and Id rather have McCourty and Revis back if I cant keep everyone
 
Other than that I think you hit on it.
 
When the Pats had trouble this year it was up front.  Either he OL getting overwhelmed by a good front four or the DL getting run on.  Always looking for better players at all positions, but those seemed to be the two pressure points.
 
Id say upgrading the guards is the top focus of the draft.  Connolly and Wendell are serviceable, but physically limited.  
 
Finding a Wilfork successor (he's not a lock to be on the team next year) or another front four pass rusher would be nice, but much harder to do given the Pats draft position.
 
After that, the Pats have the luxury of having serviceable or better players in place at every position and at least some young depth so they can just take best value available.

 

[RedOctober3829]

 
What to do with the secondary is the top focus given the contract situations
 
One thing people havent mentioned....is Browner a lock next year? Obviously a contributing player, but a $5.5MM cap hit that costs zero to cut and Id rather have McCourty and Revis back if I cant keep everyone
 
Other than that I think you hit on it.
 
When the Pats had trouble this year it was up front.  Either he OL getting overwhelmed by a good front four or the DL getting run on.  Always looking for better players at all positions, but those seemed to be the two pressure points.
 
Id say upgrading the guards is the top focus of the draft.  Connolly and Wendell are serviceable, but physically limited.  
 
Finding a Wilfork successor (he's not a lock to be on the team next year) or another front four pass rusher would be nice, but much harder to do given the Pats draft position.
 
After that, the Pats have the luxury of having serviceable or better players in place at every position and at least some young depth so they can just take best value available.

Would you rather have the $5.5 million to spend and then have to find a #2 corner or keep Browner and find other ways to keep Revis?

 

[Super Nomario]

An Arrington replacement (Butler???) would also be nice.  Arrington had a really good year UNTIL it counted and could have cost the team a SB win based on his shitacular performance.  Those happen too much to him on the biggest stage imho.

The issue with Arrington wasn't the stage, it was the matchup. He was in good position on the two bombs to Matthews; he just isn't big or physical enough to compete for the ball with a 6'5" guy. On the other hand, he did a great job on T.Y. Hilton in the AFCCG, while Browner was benched because he didn't match up well on Indy's small, quick receivers. Arrington and Browner have basically opposite skill sets, but they're a nice complement in that each has a subset of players he does well against and a subset he doesn't.
 
I think they're grooming Ryan as the next slot guy, anyway.

 

[Stitch01]

I dont know, depends on what those other ways are.  Would you rather have Wilfork on the team next year than Browner?  Mayo?       
 
Just pointing out that, given the way his contract is structured they can cut him at no cost and I, personally, think its more important to retain Revis and McCourty than Browner.
 
Browner currently has the 22nd highest CB cap figure in the league for '15, which seems a bit high for his skill set (obviously will change as other guys sign).  Arrington is also in the top 30, but he carries dead money still.  McCourty is close to a must retain, either via long-term contract or a franchise tag.  That's a lot of potential cap room dedicated to the secondary.  They have some young talent there in Dennard, Ryan, and Butler who could potentially take a leap forward this year.  Pats are currently far and away the leader for cap space allocated to CB, although obviously that's going to come down with whatever they do with Revis, but the gap is currently like $14MM over the second place team.  
 
He's obviously a good player.  His current contract is truly year to year, so he offers the flexibility to keep him in '15 and then move on if they need space to lock Hightower/Jones up.  They could also change his contract so its more cap friendly this year.  
 
Id say he's likely back, but I dont think he's a stone lock and guess his contract will be restructured to lower the '15 cap hit.

 

[MainerInExile]

I dont know, depends on what those other ways are.  Would you rather have Wilfork on the team next year than Browner?  Mayo?       

 
I don't think that Mayo is a lock to still be on the team by any means.  Is he likely to be better than either Collins or Hightower?  If not, given the small percentage of snaps with 3 LB on the field at the same time, he's only back at an extremely reduced price.

 

[CaptainLaddie]

If the Patriots can somehow get back and win the Super Bowl next year, there's a good chance the trophy will be brought up to the stage by... Joe Montana.

 

[Stitch01]

 
I don't think that Mayo is a lock to still be on the team by any means.  Is he likely to be better than either Collins or Hightower?  If not, given the small percentage of snaps with 3 LB on the field at the same time, he's only back at an extremely reduced price.

Agree with that as well, I doubt he's back at his current contract (although it has some injury protection so if he can't pass a physical the Pats are a little stuck) and Wilfork isnt a lock either.  Depends on what each of them will do in terms of a contract going forward.

 

[Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt]

I think Revis is 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5. Everyone else is replaceable, even McCourty. My emphasis would be on the trenches (and Revis)

Couldn't agree more. I like McCourty fine and believe he will be back - franchised or re-signed long term - but I'm hearing a lot of #1 priority or even that keeping him is vital to the same or a similar degree as Revis. Not in my book. Not even close.

That said, I believe they'll retain both. Also, agree on trenches. One FA journeyman guard (maybe two) and a second or third round pick there, as well.

 

[Ed Hillel]

If the Patriots successfully retain Revis, I don't think there's any way Wilfork is back on his current deal. From a pure talent perspective, he's not worth what he's making anymore, and probably not even close to it. I think he's about as likely to be below average at his position than above average next season, and injuries have to be a concern at his age, size, and position, as well. My gut says Wilfork is done in New England either way, and Belichick ends up having one of the most difficult conversations of his life at some point in the near future.

To me, this team has to keep Revis, McCourty, and Ghost. Solder has also become pretty much an auto-keep, despite his woes earlier in the season. Great turnaround for him, and an incredible performance in the playoffs to boot. The rest are mostly fungible. Vereen is a real solid player, but he's going to get overpaid, given his age and SB performance, and who knows what dynamics may exist between Belichick and Vereen's agents (who rep Welker), at this point. He's also a RB, which is the easiest position on the field to replace, even if his skillset is different. Let's assume the following moves:

Vince cut
Revis' option not picked up
Dennard cut

By my math, that should put the Pats at about 119 million. Let's just pick 140 as a cap number, which I think will be a few million low, but why not. That leaves the Pats only 21 million to spend on all their guys and draft picks. They could likely bring back both McCourty and Ghost, but there wouldn't be too much for their other FA (Vereen, Siliga), free agency, and draft picks. Revis is certainly a goner. The Pats need to shed more salary.

Ok, so who else can we add? Some options:

Browner (4.8 saved)
Amendola (4.5 saved in 2015, w/2.4 dead next year)
Mayo (I'm unclear on how much can be saved. I assume he'll pass a physical, but I'm not sure how it would impact his post June 1 cut numbers. Looks like they can save at least 3.8 with a passed physical in 2015, likely more.)
Solder extension (could potentially save a few million)

In this case, the Pats are working with 35-37 or so million, but they're also losing a lot of talent. How much can be left over after Revis, McCourty, and Ghost contracts? I don't think they can do much better than 23-24 million for those three, which leaves 12-15 million left for FA and the draft. Not ideal, but there's some room there. They could also probably figure out a way to keep one of Mayo/Amednola/Browner; I'd have a tough time deciding, probably one of the defenders.

Keep in mind, this is all if Revis is kept, which I think has to happen. I'd offer him something like 5/80 with 50 guaranteed with a massive bonus and backloaded as much as possible. Something that turns out more like 4/60. I also think Vince is basically a lock to be gone, unless he is ok taking a massive paycut.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Browner currently has the 22nd highest CB cap figure in the league for '15, which seems a bit high for his skill set (obviously will change as other guys sign).  Arrington is also in the top 30, but he carries dead money still.  McCourty is close to a must retain, either via long-term contract or a franchise tag.  That's a lot of potential cap room dedicated to the secondary.  They have some young talent there in Dennard, Ryan, and Butler who could potentially take a leap forward this year.  Pats are currently far and away the leader for cap space allocated to CB, although obviously that's going to come down with whatever they do with Revis, but the gap is currently like $14MM over the second place team.

 

To me, this team has to keep Revis, McCourty, and Ghost. Solder has also become pretty much an auto-keep, despite his woes earlier in the season. Great turnaround for him, and an incredible performance in the playoffs to boot. The rest are mostly fungible. Vereen is a real solid player, but he's going to get overpaid, given his age and SB performance, and who knows what dynamics may exist between Belichick and Vereen's agents (who rep Welker), at this point. He's also a RB, which is the easiest position on the field to replace, even if his skillset is different. Let's assume the following moves:

 
I hope McCourty comes back but I'm not sure its quite as much of a lock/necessity as you guys imply, especially if he wants a contract in Jairus Byrd or Earl Thomas territory. 
 
One of the interesting things in the latter part of the year was the extent to which Belichick became comfortable playing Harmon as the single high safety, moving McCourty down into man coverage when there was a tough receiving TE to handle.  The clinching INT against Baltimore is obviously the best example but they played that coverage a fair amount in general against that specific matchup.  I think BB really likes McCourty and probably would prefer to bring him back as the starting FS.  But if BB was willing to trust Harmon as the single deep safety with the team's entire season on the line going against one of the best deep ball offenses in the league (rather than, say, keeping McCourty back there and letting Chung or a guy like Butler or Ryan cover Owen Daniels in that spot), that suggests to me that he's comfortable enough with him in general that he'll be willing to let McCourty walk if the price gets too high.

 

[Stitch01]

Given they can tag him as a safety I think they'd still view tagging him for '15>letting him walk..

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Given they can tag him as a safety I think they'd still view tagging him for '15>letting him walk..

 
Probably, although the S tag will likely be around 10M so its no longer the bargain it once was.

 

[Stitch01]

Yeah thought it was like $8.5MM, last estimate I can find now shows $9.5MM, so its a little pricey.  Given his performance at safety and the versatility you mentioned, just don't see the Pats letting him walk next year but that cap number would certainly be a hit.

 

[crystalline]

The issue with Arrington wasn't the stage, it was the matchup. He was in good position on the two bombs to Matthews; he just isn't big or physical enough to compete for the ball with a 6'5" guy. On the other hand, he did a great job on T.Y. Hilton in the AFCCG, while Browner was benched because he didn't match up well on Indy's small, quick receivers. Arrington and Browner have basically opposite skill sets, but they're a nice complement in that each has a subset of players he does well against and a subset he doesn't.
 
I think they're grooming Ryan as the next slot guy, anyway.

Right, and Arrington was on Matthews for deep routes due to scheme.

Carroll and his staff did a masterful job on offense in Q1-3. The Pats seemed to dominate them but the Seahawks called a few plays to get their big fourth receiver on our slot corner and Wilson made the plays. As SN says, I don't think you need better talent- that was mainly on the coaches. Belichick respects Carroll for good reason.

I am very glad Belichick and Patricia stayed flexible and stopped Matthews after the first drive of the 3rd quarter. And I'm glad Belichick /completely/ outcoached Carroll in the last minute. It was a coaching battle but the win goes to New England.

 

[ragnarok725]

One thing to note here that I was unaware of - Siliga is an exclusive rights FA, so he will be back on short money.

 

[ALiveH]

I really hope we get anchors on the OL & DL in rounds 1 & 2 of the draft (I'm assuming it's unlikely we make a splash there in free agency or via trade).  While those units were generally good overall, at certain times we won in spite of getting manhandled in the trenches when going up against elite units.

 

[epraz]

Does anyone know what the mechanics of a Revis extension could look like?  I think $5M of his $10M signing bonus will count against 2015's cap no matter what they do. Would it be a matter of tearing up his contract before his $12.5M roster bonus is due April 1 and working that "dead" money into how they structure the next deal, cap-wise?

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Right, and Arrington was on Matthews for deep routes due to scheme.

Carroll and his staff did a masterful job on offense in Q1-3. The Pats seemed to dominate them but the Seahawks called a few plays to get their big fourth receiver on our slot corner and Wilson made the plays. As SN says, I don't think you need better talent- that was mainly on the coaches. Belichick respects Carroll for good reason.

I am very glad Belichick and Patricia stayed flexible and stopped Matthews after the first drive of the 3rd quarter. And I'm glad Belichick /completely/ outcoached Carroll in the last minute. It was a coaching battle but the win goes to New England.

 
I actually think their offensive game plan was awful.  They gained 23 yards total on their first three drives, were a favorable spot away from going 3 and out on their fourth drive, and then hit the jackpot with an improbable Plan D, which basically involved throwing jump balls to a tall guy who had never caught an NFL pass before.  Huge credit should go to Wilson for making some great throws and to Matthews for making some great catches, but those are really low percentage and high risk plays even with a good matchup on Arrington.  Throwing jump balls down the field to a guy who was working at Foot Locker last year isn't a game plan, its a prayer. And once the Patriots adjusted and put Browner on Matthews, the offense struggled again. 
 
In addition, there was a lot of stuff that Seattle didn't do on offense, although obviously its hard to tell exactly what they were trying to do on some plays.  They didn't run read-option all that much and try to get Wilson into running situations, they didn't throw to Lynch out of the backfield until the last two drives, despite that looking like a very favorable matchup on Collins.  They never threw to Willson when Chung was matched up on him in man coverage - maybe Chung had a fantastic game in coverage but that's a matchup a lot of teams have tried to exploit.  They seemed to have no answers for how to pick up third downs in the passing game with higher percentage throws of 5-15 yards, which needs to be a huge part of any NFL offense.
 
I give all the credit in the world to the Seattle players, who played their asses off and almost won despite their team having a significant coaching disadvantage.

 

[crystalline]

I don't completely disagree- I think Seattle's game plan was not working.

However I think
- the Pats defense is really skilled, had a good game plan, and matches up well with Seattle. I mostly credit the Pats for how bad Seattle looked early in the game. Still they were able to move the ball with Lynch and Wilson hurt the Pats on some runs.

- Carroll's staff deserves a ton of credit for adjustments. They realized their plan was not working, and decided to adjust by throwing passes to a guy who was basically off the street. Belichick and Patricia dared them out of the half to keep rubbing that lamp and they did and pulled another genie out at the start of the 3Q. Only then did the Pats adjust.

I thought the chess match was pretty good and Carroll acquitted himself well with those adjustments.

 

[Super Nomario]

I actually think their offensive game plan was awful.  They gained 23 yards total on their first three drives, were a favorable spot away from going 3 and out on their fourth drive, and then hit the jackpot with an improbable Plan D, which basically involved throwing jump balls to a tall guy who had never caught an NFL pass before.  Huge credit should go to Wilson for making some great throws and to Matthews for making some great catches, but those are really low percentage and high risk plays even with a good matchup on Arrington.  Throwing jump balls down the field to a guy who was working at Foot Locker last year isn't a game plan, its a prayer. And once the Patriots adjusted and put Browner on Matthews, the offense struggled again. 

The reality is that the Seahawks have only one receiver who can get open against man coverage, and the Patriots erased him with Revis. By putting Baldwin in the slot, they forced Arrington outside and targeted their physical mismatches there. Matthews was a wrinkle the Pats were unlikely to have seen on film and prepared for. I agree it was a little desperate, but the Patriots have a top-five secondary and the Seahawks have probably a bottom-five or bottom-10 group of WRs.
 

 In addition, there was a lot of stuff that Seattle didn't do on offense, although obviously its hard to tell exactly what they were trying to do on some plays.  They didn't run read-option all that much and try to get Wilson into running situations, they didn't throw to Lynch out of the backfield until the last two drives, despite that looking like a very favorable matchup on Collins.  They never threw to Willson when Chung was matched up on him in man coverage - maybe Chung had a fantastic game in coverage but that's a matchup a lot of teams have tried to exploit.  

I don't know how much was pure read option, but the Seahawks did run from shotgun a lot - 11 of Lynch's runs, both of Turbins, plus a Wilson run on the drive late in the second half. I think the Patriots were good and consistent about forcing Wilson to hand off rather than keep, and generally tackled well enough to limit the damage from Lynch.
 
I'm interested to take a closer look myself at Willson and Lynch. Seattle went away from the middle of the field generally, so they may have suffered as a result.
 

They seemed to have no answers for how to pick up third downs in the passing game with higher percentage throws of 5-15 yards, which needs to be a huge part of any NFL offense.

The Pats deserve some credit here, but Seattle in general is bad at this, probably through some combination of a sub-par receiving corps, a still-young quarterback, and a lack of sophisticated passing concepts (probably related in part to the first two items).

 

[Stitch01]

Does anyone know what the mechanics of a Revis extension could look like?  I think $5M of his $10M signing bonus will count against 2015's cap no matter what they do. Would it be a matter of tearing up his contract before his $12.5M roster bonus is due April 1 and working that "dead" money into how they structure the next deal, cap-wise?

http://www.patsfans.com/salary-cap/?p=1039
 
Miguel took a crack at it, looks from his work like the $5MM hits next year no matter what.

 

[crystalline]

Would be nice to split out the coaching matchup stuff.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

The reality is that the Seahawks have only one receiver who can get open against man coverage, and the Patriots erased him with Revis. By putting Baldwin in the slot, they forced Arrington outside and targeted their physical mismatches there. Matthews was a wrinkle the Pats were unlikely to have seen on film and prepared for. I agree it was a little desperate, but the Patriots have a top-five secondary and the Seahawks have probably a bottom-five or bottom-10 group of WRs.
 
I don't know how much was pure read option, but the Seahawks did run from shotgun a lot - 11 of Lynch's runs, both of Turbins, plus a Wilson run on the drive late in the second half. I think the Patriots were good and consistent about forcing Wilson to hand off rather than keep, and generally tackled well enough to limit the damage from Lynch.
 
I'm interested to take a closer look myself at Willson and Lynch. Seattle went away from the middle of the field generally, so they may have suffered as a result.
 
The Pats deserve some credit here, but Seattle in general is bad at this, probably through some combination of a sub-par receiving corps, a still-young quarterback, and a lack of sophisticated passing concepts (probably related in part to the first two items).

 
These points are well taken, especially about them trying to run Wilson and the Pats simply doing a good job forcing Wilson to hand off.
 
However, while its hard to tell what was happening without looking at the film, the distribution of targets in their passing game is just amazing to me.  They didn't target a TE all game and, until about 5:00 was left, they didn't target a RB either (despite having two backs that are both good pass catchers).  Since Revis was largely erasing Baldwin, their entire passing strategy involved throwing to their 2nd-4th WRs and they did so almost exclusively deep and to the outside - usually to whichever side wasn't receiving safety help.    To me, that's an effective element of an overall strategy but its hard to have an attack that is doing that almost exclusively.  Other than goal to go situations, I think I can count on one hand the number of passes that were targeted less than 15 yards downfield.

 

[Super Nomario]

These points are well taken, especially about them trying to run Wilson and the Pats simply doing a good job forcing Wilson to hand off.

To be clear, I don't think it's about "trying to run Wilson"; that's just how the RO is designed. I think Seattle is pretty happy running with Lynch knowing that a pursuit defender is taken out of the play by the threat of Wilson's running.
 

However, while its hard to tell what was happening without looking at the film, the distribution of targets in their passing game is just amazing to me.  They didn't target a TE all game and, until about 5:00 was left, they didn't target a RB either (despite having two backs that are both good pass catchers).  Since Revis was largely erasing Baldwin, their entire passing strategy involved throwing to their 2nd-4th WRs and they did so almost exclusively deep and to the outside - usually to whichever side wasn't receiving safety help.    To me, that's an effective element of an overall strategy but its hard to have an attack that is doing that almost exclusively.  Other than goal to go situations, I think I can count on one hand the number of passes that were targeted less than 15 yards downfield.

The funny thing is that the Patriots were sort of doing the same thing on the other side of the ball. They essentially abandoned the deep ball (especially deep middle), ignored whoever Sherman was covering, and gave up on the running game. Sherman doesn't switch sides as much so it didn't translate into one receiver getting erased like Baldwin, and the shape is different (all short stuff vs all long balls), but the Patriots' offense was just as one-dimensional as Seattle's. They made it work anyway, because that's what they do as a matter of course, but it was a funny game from that standpoint. A lot of big-name defensive players had quiet days, at least by the stat sheets.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

To be clear, I don't think it's about "trying to run Wilson"; that's just how the RO is designed. I think Seattle is pretty happy running with Lynch knowing that a pursuit defender is taken out of the play by the threat of Wilson's running.

Absolutely.

The funny thing is that the Patriots were sort of doing the same thing on the other side of the ball. They essentially abandoned the deep ball (especially deep middle), ignored whoever Sherman was covering, and gave up on the running game. Sherman doesn't switch sides as much so it didn't translate into one receiver getting erased like Baldwin, and the shape is different (all short stuff vs all long balls), but the Patriots' offense was just as one-dimensional as Seattle's. They made it work anyway, because that's what they do as a matter of course, but it was a funny game from that standpoint. A lot of big-name defensive players had quiet days, at least by the stat sheets.

I guess the difference is that the Patriots were one-dimensional but working with their bread and butter. Seattle's strategy, in constrast, was a big departure from their normal pass distribution. As much as people talk about their deep passing, only about 10% of Wilson's throws were 20+ yards downfield during the regular season and about 67% of his throws were targeted within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. In this game he made 13/21 throws targeted 20+ yards downfield and only made 5/21 throws targeted within 10 yards of the LoS (and two of those were at the goal line). Whether that was part of their intended game plan or whether the Patriots simply did a good job taking away short options and the Seahawks didn't have any other answers, that's just a crazy distribution.

 

[Captaincoop]

Agree with that as well, I doubt he's back at his current contract (although it has some injury protection so if he can't pass a physical the Pats are a little stuck) and Wilfork isnt a lock either.  Depends on what each of them will do in terms of a contract going forward.

 
I know he is a leader and highly respected by the coaching staff and teammates, so there is some intangible value there, but by my count the team is 22-6 without him over the last 7 years, including a Super Bowl win.  Seems like they could survive without him.

 

[theapportioner]

There was some speculation about Wilfork possibly retiring after the Super Bowl. This interview certainly suggests that he has no plans to retire.
 

"I'm already looking forward to next year to see if we can do it again. That's what my mind[set] is."

 
http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-england-patriots/post/_/id/4777943/vince-wilfork-lets-see-if-we-can-do-it-again

 

[DJnVa]

Good. Take a restructure.

 

[Tony C]

I really think they need:
 
1-better guards, the current crew is old and adequate and I respect the hell out of them. But can improve at that slot most easily.
 
2-two-way running back. Love Blount and love Gray, too, for that matter. And maybe Gray can develop some hands. But seeing Marshawn Lynch it's not just that he's the best back in the NFL, but he really has good hands. That's such an important dimension. On the flip, as good as Vereen has been, he's also been one-dimensional. The Pats are all about multi-dimensional players.
 
Those are the only two areas where I see urgency in re upgrades. Love the depth on the defensive side and the overall youth of the team.

 

[Stitch01]

Id like a multi-dimensional back too, but its way down the list for me.  Secondary, Guards, DL/Pass Rush, WR depth (this may be solved internally), K (given Ghost's contract status) all higher on the things to do list for me

 

[Super Nomario]

I really think they need:
 
1-better guards, the current crew is old and adequate and I respect the hell out of them. But can improve at that slot most easily.

For sure. I'm curious as to whether they think Cannon, Fleming, Devey, or Kline is a potential solution given a whole offseason working at G, but they probably still need another.
 

2-two-way running back. Love Blount and love Gray, too, for that matter. And maybe Gray can develop some hands. But seeing Marshawn Lynch it's not just that he's the best back in the NFL, but he really has good hands. That's such an important dimension. On the flip, as good as Vereen has been, he's also been one-dimensional. The Pats are all about multi-dimensional players.

It's interesting that they've never had someone like this - and apparently, never really tried. The guys like Faulk, Vereen, and Woodhead tended not to be big rushers; early-down backs like Smith, Dillon, BJGE, Ridley, and Blount have tended not to catch many passes. I'm curious as to whether this is economic (the cost of real two-way backs is too high) or by design (they think it's better to spread the load out by specializing rather than have one guy do everything).
 
Pass rush was also an issue at times. Maybe Easley can solve that problem, but they could use another interior guy who can generate push and an heir apparent to Ninkovich.

 

[Tony C]

Yeah, was thinking about that after I posted. We always think of the Pats as being about multi-dimensional players, but I guess that's more of a defensive thing.
 
That said, in re RBs, Woodhead did average 4.8 yards per run as a Pat -- 250 rushes, so not a SSS. To me that's still the ideal, but the fact that they lowballed him in negotiations indicates that BB thinks differently.

 

[RedOctober3829]

I really think they need:
 
1-better guards, the current crew is old and adequate and I respect the hell out of them. But can improve at that slot most easily.
 
2-two-way running back. Love Blount and love Gray, too, for that matter. And maybe Gray can develop some hands. But seeing Marshawn Lynch it's not just that he's the best back in the NFL, but he really has good hands. That's such an important dimension. On the flip, as good as Vereen has been, he's also been one-dimensional. The Pats are all about multi-dimensional players.
 
Those are the only two areas where I see urgency in re upgrades. Love the depth on the defensive side and the overall youth of the team.

Todd Gurley might be a way to go with a 2-way RB.  In 2013, he had 37 catches for 441 yards and 6 TDs. 

 

[DJnVa]

Yeah, was thinking about that after I posted. We always think of the Pats as being about multi-dimensional players, but I guess that's more of a defensive thing.
 
That said, in re RBs, Woodhead did average 4.8 yards per run as a Pat -- 250 rushes, so not a SSS. To me that's still the ideal, but the fact that they lowballed him in negotiations indicates that BB thinks differently.

 
Maybe, but I have to think a lot of Woodhead's runs were not in the typical style we're thinking about for a two-way back. Much like Darren Sproles has a high YPC, but he's likely running a lot of draws, etc.
 

 

[bakahump]

 
It's interesting that they've never had someone like this - and apparently, never really tried. The guys like Faulk, Vereen, and Woodhead tended not to be big rushers; early-down backs like Smith, Dillon, BJGE, Ridley, and Blount have tended not to catch many passes. I'm curious as to whether this is economic (the cost of real two-way backs is too high) or by design (they think it's better to spread the load out by specializing rather than have one guy do everything
 
 
 

 
 
To use an analogy.... A subaru WRX is a fast go anywhere car due to its all wheel drive.
 
But a Jeep CJ7 is much better at off roading.   Although it can go on road the ride sucks.
And a Camaro is much faster on a road. And it can drive a bumpy country lane but not through deep mud.
 
And I can buy both of them used for cheaper then a similarly used WRX.
 
Point being that not only do i get better performance from each part of the platoon but I can do it cheaper.   The only downside being a slight suggestion of preference to opposing defenses.
 
That savings allows you to get two way players at positions that really matter (like TE) or WR (slot, flexed out, blocking)

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

Can someone explain Solder's situation?  It looks like he's been paid all of his guaranteed money, but he's on the books to earn $7.5 million next year.  I assume that's a fake number, right?  He either gets cut or restructures?

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Can someone explain Solder's situation?  It looks like he's been paid all of his guaranteed money, but he's on the books to earn $7.5 million next year.  I assume that's a fake number, right?  He either gets cut or restructures?

Under the new CBA, 1st round contracts are four years with an additional option year (cost depends on position and pick position) that teams either pick up or decline at the beginning of the 4th year of the contract. Its non-guaranteed until the start of the next league years so its kind of stupid, as there's little downside to picking it up. The Pats did that last spring so Solder is under contract for 7.5M for 2015 but can be cut for nothing before 3/10, when the money becomes guaranteed. The Pats could obviously also try to work out a long term extension to get him under contract and potentially lower his 2015 cap figure if necessary.

 

[Stitch01]

Solder was a bit up and down this year, but given he finished reasonably strong an extension seems reasonably likely to me.  They can lower the '15 cap number.  Vollmer is only signed through '16 and will turn 33 in '17, don't really want to be addressing both tackle positions at once and might be able to slide him to right tackle if needed.

 

[Rico Guapo]

Todd Gurley might be a way to go with a 2-way RB.  In 2013, he had 37 catches for 441 yards and 6 TDs. 

 
I'd much rather see them go OL/DL at 32, drafting a RB that high is a luxury given they already have Blount signed for next year (in addition to Gray, White, etc.)