The AFC Playoff Picture (formerly Ranking the AFC)

[Silverdude2167]

Ok, so because the Jets, Bills, Dolphins and Chargers didn't score 21, no one will, right?

Are you saying the Patriots won't give up 21 points on the way to Lombardi #4?

It would not surprise me. And lets go back to week 8 since then they have given up 23, 21, 20, 9, 26, 14, 13, 16, 17. Three of those opponents average at least 3 points a game higher than Baltimore, why would you expect Baltimore to.
 
No one is saying they can not win, but I do not understand why you are pushing them when nothing you say is backed up by stats.

 

[Shelterdog]

Let me restate my point:

I would not be shocked if the Patriots lost to the Ravens. It looks like it could be a tough matchup based on how well they rush the passer and how poorly we've protected our passer as of late.

Why are people so put off by that thought, again?

 
Because you're being a dick about it. 

 

[H78]

They lost to 3 non playoff teams that had 8-8 records or better. They didn't lose to crap teams and they laid down for the Bills today.

Good teams lose to crap teams sometimes. Remember when we almost did a week ago? We almost did because that team had shit everywhere else except for on their defensive line, and had Vince not tipped a field goal (a low percentage play if there's ever one) we may have actually lost it.

I'm rooting for the Pats. I'm all in on this team. But I don't think they're gonna steamroll their way through the AFC, and I think people who are expecting that will be in for a surprise or two in the form of nail-bitingly close games or a flat out loss to a team with a good pass rush.

If the O-line is fixed on the fly here I think they WILL end up playing in Arizona. But I can't see why we should miraculously expect that to happen in two weeks. I hope I'm wrong, but I'm just sharing how I feel based on what I've seen on the field in the last month.

 

[jsinger121]

Let me restate my point:
I would not be shocked if the Patriots lost to the Ravens. It looks like it could be a tough matchup based on how well they rush the passer and how poorly we've protected our passer as of late.
Why are people so put off by that thought, again?

Tell me how the Ravens plan to move the ball on New England. I'm interested to know if you think the Smith's would be able to move the chains very much against Revis and Browner.

 

[H78]

 
Because you're being a dick about it. 

What? Why? That's not what I'm intending at all. I just don't agree with you guys and you're struggling to see why. It's ok for me to have a different point of view than you, you know. Maybe you should just be a little less annoyed with people who see flaws with this Patriots team?

 

[Mooch]

The Ravens are a terrible football team this year. They went 1-6 against teams with winning records. They're not even getting out of the first round, especially if they have to go into Pittsburgh.

 

[staz]

Predictions (if PIT wins tonight):

Sat 1/3 4:35
ARI @ CAR = CAR

Sat 1/3 8:15
BAL @ PIT = PIT

Sun 1/4 1:05
CIN @ IND = IND

Sun 1/4 4:40
DET @ DAL = DAL

Sat 1/10 4:35
IND @ NE = NE

Sat 1/10 8:15
CAR @ SEA = SEA

Sun 1/11 1:05
DAL @ GB = GB

Sun 1/11 4:40
PIT @ DEN = PIT

AFCCG
PIT @ NE = NE

NFCCG
GB @ SEA = SEA

SB
NE VS SEA @ Glendale = NE

 

[DJnVa]

Let me restate my point:

I would not be shocked if the Patriots lost to the Ravens. It looks like it could be a tough matchup based on how well they rush the passer and how poorly we've protected our passer as of late.

Why are people so put off by that thought, again?

 
If you think this "argument" is because no one believes the Ravens could possibly beat the Pats then we should probably all just chill out for a while because that's not what's happening here.

 

[H78]

Tell me how the Ravens plan to move the ball on New England. I'm interested to know if you think the Smith's would be able to move the chains very much against Revis and Browner.

Blown coverages? Short fields due to a turnover? Long punt/kickoff returns? It's not hard to get to 21 with a couple of breaks. The Seahawks, arguably the bet defense in the league, game up 21+ in five games this year. One of those games was against the Raiders. It happens.

 

[DJnVa]

What? Why? That's not what I'm intending at all. I just don't agree with you guys and you're struggling to see why. It's ok for me to have a different point of view than you, you know. Maybe you should just be a little less annoyed with people who see flaws with this Patriots team?

 
I've generally founf that if one person is claiming that everyone else is misunderstanding their point, perhaps the point isn't being made as succinctly as that person thinks.
 
That said, you've made your point. Perhaps we should end this back and forth.

 

[staz]

H78 @ SoSH = SoSH

 

[H78]

 
I've generally founf that if one person is claiming that everyone else is misunderstanding their point, perhaps the point isn't being made as succinctly as that person thinks.
 
That said, you've made your point. Perhaps we should end this back and forth.

I don't think anyone's misunderstanding my point. I think they don't agree with it, which is fine. People are asking me why I think the way I do, and I'm telling them why.

I think no one really realized Baltimore had a top ranked pass rush. They've gotten a reputation as a joke on SoSH because of several other facets of their game, and a lot of it is warranted but I think their pass rush has been overlooked. I'm pointing out that it's a threat, particularly when also considering how bad the O line has played lately.

It's really a pretty straightforward point. I'm not sure how it can come across as confusing.

But we can agree to disagree. Go Pats.

Edit: Fixed Droid autocorrects

 

[loshjott]

So if Pittsburgh wins tonight and next week then Indy or the Bengals have to come to Foxborough on a short week.

 

[Stitch01]

Let me restate my point:

I would not be shocked if the Patriots lost to the Ravens. It looks like it could be a tough matchup based on how well they rush the passer and how poorly we've protected our passer as of late.

Why are people so put off by that thought, again?

They'll win between 1 and 4 and 1 in 5 in foxboro. Indy, Pitt, and cinn all would as well

Ravens front is a bad matchup for the pats and basically everywhere else on the field is a bad matchup for the Ravens. They have no one who can cover any of the pats pass catchers and I don't really fear Kamar Aiken and marlin brown as tertiary options. Yeah they could win if everything goes right and their front plays a great game. It won't happen often

 

[snowmanny]

If I were the Seahawks I'd be nervous about the Panthers. Carolina absolutely has a non-zero chance of winning in Seattle.

 

[dcmissle]

I have an irrational fear of any Ravens/Giants matchup given the recent history but I do think we match up well against them defensively. Flacco burned us in the past because he could throw it up to Boldin and we lacked the ability to make a play. Now, with Revis/Browner, that's no longer an issue. On offense, their front 7 is still good and would be a problem but their secondary lacks the playmakers that they used to have.

All in all, the Pats would have to play a pretty dump of a game, like 2010 against the Jets, or suffer a key injury or two to lose to this 2014 Ravens squad at home.

You have found a sweet spot between crippling fear and irrational exuberance. Yeah, they seem well equipped, for the first time in a long time, to win a big stakes game in the high teens to mid twenties, which is where I expect the Super Bowl to be decided. Again. Which is why I think it's probable that Revis will be on this team again next year, one way or another.

 

[Stitch01]

Meh, Super Bowl is decided in the teens or mid twenties about as often as its decided in the high 20's, 30's, or 40's. 

 

[dcmissle]

I don't see the Seahawks giving 30s or 40s. And I think they are the SB favorites from NFC with home field nailed down.

 

[Stitch01]

They're clearly the NFC favorites, but they can lose at home just like everyone else and we certainly shouldn't be planning the 2015 season as if they are a lock to be NFC champions.
 
I feel better about having this defense too, but there's just way more uncertainty about how the playoffs play out.

 

[dcmissle]

For sure. And in any low scoring game, one turnover can easily decide everything.

From Seattle's standpoint, I would worry most about Dallas.

 

[j44thor]

They'll win between 1 and 4 and 1 in 5 in foxboro. Indy, Pitt, and cinn all would as well

Ravens front is a bad matchup for the pats and basically everywhere else on the field is a bad matchup for the Ravens. They have no one who can cover any of the pats pass catchers and I don't really fear Kamar Aiken and marlin brown as tertiary options. Yeah they could win if everything goes right and their front plays a great game. It won't happen often

 
Ravens Oline is playing really well, esp in run blocking.  We saw NYJ run all over NE a couple weeks ago, Ravens could follow that plan.  Will also be interesting to see who Revis covers if we get there.  Browner on T Smith is a nightmare matchup given Browner's propensity to take DPI calls and Flacco/T Smith being very good at getting those calls.  If Revis shadows T Smith he might just run go routes all day and neuter Revis for the most part. 
 
I would put the odds of Ravens beating NE slightly higher than Indy/CIN and about on par with PIT.
 
As well as the NE Defense has played I'm very concerned about Browner and his propensity to not only take DPI calls but the fact his reputation alone could lead to some tough calls against him.  A bad PI call or two could change the outcome of a game.  We have see it happen before in the playoffs.

 

[Stitch01]

I saw the Jets run 32 times for a pedestrian 3.6 yards a carry a couple of weeks ago.  What did you see?
 
They can primarily put Revis on S Smith, Arrington on T Smith with help over the top, and put Browner on Owen Daniels.  If they want to throw to Logan Ryan covering Kamar Aiken be my guest.

 

[Shelterdog]

 
Ravens Oline is playing really well, esp in run blocking.  We saw NYJ run all over NE a couple weeks ago, Ravens could follow that plan.

. Do you happen to know that the Ravens just lost two starting offensive linemen?

 

[j44thor]

. Do you happen to know that the Ravens just lost two starting offensive linemen?

 
Actually no I did not, thanks for sharing.
Didn't watch much football yesterday due to holiday travel and Rotoworld didn't seem to mention it.
Who did they lose and are they expected to be out for 2+ weeks?  That could be significant for BAL.

 

[Shelterdog]

 
Actually no I did not, thanks for sharing.
Didn't watch much football yesterday due to holiday travel and Rotoworld didn't seem to mention it.
Who did they lose and are they expected to be out for 2+ weeks?  That could be significant for BAL.

 
 
The starting RT Wagner is done for the year.  The starting LT Monroe has an ankle sprain that he suffered against Houston and that kept him out of the game this week, so it's unclear when he'll be able to play again.  They played an undrafted rookie at LT (Hurst) and he struggled earlier this season when he did play.  They moved Yanda to RT and played another rookie (fifth round pick Urschel) at guard. 

 

[steveluck7]

 
Ravens Oline is playing really well, esp in run blocking.  We saw NYJ run all over NE a couple weeks ago, Ravens could follow that plan.  Will also be interesting to see who Revis covers if we get there.  Browner on T Smith is a nightmare matchup given Browner's propensity to take DPI calls and Flacco/T Smith being very good at getting those calls.  If Revis shadows T Smith he might just run go routes all day and neuter Revis for the most part. 
 
I would put the odds of Ravens beating NE slightly higher than Indy/CIN and about on par with PIT.
 
As well as the NE Defense has played I'm very concerned about Browner and his propensity to not only take DPI calls but the fact his reputation alone could lead to some tough calls against him.  A bad PI call or two could change the outcome of a game.  We have see it happen before in the playoffs.

Did the Jets really "run all over"NE? Their 3 back carred the ball something like 26 times for just over 100 yeards. That's about 1/2 of what they accomplished in their first match up.
 
Also, to your point about Browner. He's had 4 DPI pentlites accepted this year. 2 against Miami, 1 agaonst detroit, and 1 against denver. The combined scores for the games was 118-43.
If you recall the 2 penalties he took in the only loss he's played in (GB), 1 (illegal use of hands) was a BS call that wiped out a sack and the other was a holding penalty that ultimately led to a FG.
I just don't see how his penaties have really cost the team

 

[j44thor]

 
 
The starting RT Wagner is done for the year.  The starting LT Monroe has an ankle sprain that he suffered against Houston and that kept him out of the game this week, so it's unclear when he'll be able to play again.  They played an undrafted rookie at LT (Hurst) and he struggled earlier this season when he did play.  They moved Yanda to RT and played another rookie (fifth round pick Urschel) at guard. 

Interesting, doesn't look like it had any impact on the game yesterday as Flacco was only sacked once and hit 3 times and Forsett averaged 7 YPC but then again that was against a CLE team playing for nothing.  
 
Of course PIT D doesn't exactly scare anyone so they may have trouble exposing a weakened OL as well.

 

[dcmissle]

 
 
The starting RT Wagner is done for the year.  The starting LT Monroe has an ankle sprain that he suffered against Houston and that kept him out of the game this week, so it's unclear when he'll be able to play again.  They played an undrafted rookie at LT (Hurst) and he struggled earlier this season when he did play.  They moved Yanda to RT and played another rookie (fifth round pick Urschel) at guard. 

Did not mesh really until 4th quarter.

 

[Toe Nash]

 
Ravens Oline is playing really well, esp in run blocking.  We saw NYJ run all over NE a couple weeks ago, Ravens could follow that plan.  Will also be interesting to see who Revis covers if we get there.  Browner on T Smith is a nightmare matchup given Browner's propensity to take DPI calls and Flacco/T Smith being very good at getting those calls.  If Revis shadows T Smith he might just run go routes all day and neuter Revis for the most part. 

 Revis neutering T Smith would be fine given he's their best receiver. That's kind of what Revis does. Steve Smith had a big start but hasn't done much since week 6 or so.
 
Also, refs swallow their whistles in the playoffs especially during key moments. I'm not overly concerned about Browner getting flagged.

 

[Shelterdog]

Interesting, doesn't look like it had any impact on the game yesterday as Flacco was only sacked once and hit 3 times and Forsett averaged 7 YPC but then again that was against a CLE team playing for nothing.  
 
Of course PIT D doesn't exactly scare anyone so they may have trouble exposing a weakened OL as well.

 
I watched a few games where Hurst played earlier this season and he was Devey-bad, and there's always a question of how a line is going to gel when you're putting in two new players and moving a third.

 

[dcmissle]

To follow on Shelter's point, they had 3 points at half in a game they had to win. The meshing almost came too late. And although I have unconditional love for Yanda, who knows if he can sustain his switch to RT if he has to? While we're chatting, LeBeau is drawing stuff up. If the Ravens cannot sustain a run game, Flacco becomes much less dangerous and their receivers become much more manageable.

Steve Smith Sr. and Owen Daniels concern me the most in a playoff setting.

 

[Saints Rest]

There's a lot of talk about the trouble Baltimore might be for NE, but does anyone really think they match up well with Pitt?  I actually think Pitt might be the danger team in the AFC -- the team that seems to be getting hot at the right moment.  They've won 4 in a row, and 8 of the last 10 (with the two losses being somewhat inexplicable to the Saints and the Jets).  The Ravens meanwhile have lost 2 of their last 5 and 4 of their last 9.  H2H, each team won at home (coincidentally by 20), with the Ravens win in Week 2, and the Steelers' win in Week 9.
 
A Pitt win means that they go to Denver, where I think they match up poorly (Denver's strength passing against the Pitt weakness of pass defense) means that, if we assume that the Pats get past Indy/Cinci winner (and I don't hear anyone thinking that is a likely issue), then we are looking at a likely Pats/Broncos rematch, this time in Foxboro in the cold.

 

[dcmissle]

Pittsburgh would be my sleeper team in the AFC. And as much as I am sensitive to Baltimore's problems, I would rather face Indy or Cincy than Baltimore in terms of getting through. That choice may not be particularly close.

 

[j44thor]

There's a lot of talk about the trouble Baltimore might be for NE, but does anyone really think they match up well with Pitt?  I actually think Pitt might be the danger team in the AFC -- the team that seems to be getting hot at the right moment.  They've won 4 in a row, and 8 of the last 10 (with the two losses being somewhat inexplicable to the Saints and the Jets).  The Ravens meanwhile have lost 2 of their last 5 and 4 of their last 9.  H2H, each team won at home (coincidentally by 20), with the Ravens win in Week 2, and the Steelers' win in Week 9.
 
A Pitt win means that they go to Denver, where I think they match up poorly (Denver's strength passing against the Pitt weakness of pass defense) means that, if we assume that the Pats get past Indy/Cinci winner (and I don't hear anyone thinking that is a likely issue), then we are looking at a likely Pats/Broncos rematch, this time in Foxboro in the cold.

 
A lot of PIT rests literally on the knee of LeVeon Bell, word is the injury is not significant but that doesn't mean he will be healthy in a week or two.
Without Bell they have no running game and also lose their #2 passing option.  Revis will shadow A Brown leaving not much else to beat you with and PIT D is not scary at all.  They don't rush the passer nor do they cover very well.
 
A healthy Bell makes the team a bit scarier and perhaps on par with BAL.  I would put CIN/IND behind those two by a tick or two.

 

[Old Fart Tree]

PIT definitely strikes me as the team that could get hot all of a sudden. BAL, CIN, and INDY do not scare me at all. 

 

[Stitch01]

To follow on Shelter's point, they had 3 points at half in a game they had to win. The meshing almost came too late. And although I have unconditional love for Yanda, who knows if he can sustain his switch to RT if he has to? While we're chatting, LeBeau is drawing stuff up. If the Ravens cannot sustain a run game, Flacco becomes much less dangerous and their receivers become much more manageable.

Steve Smith Sr. and Owen Daniels concern me the most in a playoff setting.

I agree completely with the second sentence.  Not that T. Smith isnt a capable receiver or dangerous, but I think Steve Smith is the key to that passing offense and, since its a Kubiak offense, that taking the tight end away is key.  The Pats have pieces to take away those two guys, the Pats run defense has been very solid over the 2nd half of the year, and the Ravens offensive line isnt very good against the pass rush.  I think the defense is more likely to be successful against the Ravens than any of the other AFC teams with the possible exception of the Bengals.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

There's a lot of talk about the trouble Baltimore might be for NE, but does anyone really think they match up well with Pitt? 

 
Balt matched up fine with PIT when they had Jimmy Smith shadowing ABrown.  In fact, I think Flacco plays better against the PIT defensive scheme than he does against the Bengals.  (See here for stats:  http://ftw.usatoday.com/2014/10/joe-flacco-struggles-ravens-bengals).
 
That being said, the Ravens will need excellent play from a lot of people who either weren't supposed to be there or are playing different positions - including Hurst, who played better yesterday against a credible Browns DLine than he did in his first go round, Yanda at RT, who played better there than he did in 2010 when the Ravens first tried him at the spot; and the host of UDFAs who are currently populating the Ravens' secondary (Rashaan Melvin; Anthony Levine, who was not only not drafted but converted to CB from safety; Jeromy Miles; etc.).

 

[dano7594]

I continue to be perplexed concerning the Steelers, and the people who fear them.  They played the 3rd worst schedule in the NFL as far as Strength of Schedule.  They have 3 of the worst losses in the league (Jets, and at home against Tampa and New Orleans.)  They also allowed Alex Smith to throw for 311 yards. Their defense is based on reputation alone at this point. 
 
What impressive wins do they have, Indy? Cincy? Baltimore? They benefited from playing the NFC and AFC South.  Which is why their division has 3 teams in the playoffs.
 
Look, I know Bell, Brown and Roethlisberger are real good, but the rest of the roster is garbage. 

 

[Shelterdog]

 
Balt matched up fine with PIT when they had Jimmy Smith shadowing ABrown.  In fact, I think Flacco plays better against the PIT defensive scheme than he does against the Bengals.  (See here for stats:  http://ftw.usatoday.com/2014/10/joe-flacco-struggles-ravens-bengals).
 
That being said, the Ravens will need excellent play from a lot of people who either weren't supposed to be there or are playing different positions - including Hurst, who played better yesterday against a credible Browns DLine than he did in his first go round, Yanda at RT, who played better there than he did in 2010 when the Ravens first tried him at the spot; and the host of UDFAs who are currently populating the Ravens' secondary (Rashaan Melvin; Anthony Levine, who was not only not drafted but converted to CB from safety; Jeromy Miles; etc.).

 
Jimmy Smith isn't walking through that door..
 
To be a bit of a Peter King, football is just such an absurdly complex sport.  We've all watched hundreds or thousands of hours of it, and a game like the Ravens-Steelers game is going to come down to how one or two rookies do in making adjustments to blitzes and whether there patched together secondary is all making the same reads.  Weird.

 

[jimbobim]

The AFC field is fascinating because each team has a pretty noticeable weakness  with the Patriots being the offensive line. I was going back and forth while watching the Steelers/Bengals game on who'd I'd like to see either come to NE for the divisional game or who would be the best to send to Denver 
 
This is how I would set it up.
 
1) Broncos- Manning while looking very unmanning like the last few weeks still will likely pick apart that Steeler secondary if the Steelers can beat the Ravens. They should because it's a home game and their offensive line looked good enough last night to blunt the Ravens pass pressure. 
 
2) Steelers- If and it's a pretty big if I would say Bell is able to be healthy they might be able to gash the Broncos enough on the ground to win a shootout in Denver but I think their secondary will haunt them in Denver against Thomas and their old friend Sanders. I'm confident BB could game plan a way to somehow mitigate Brown and Bell but Big Ben is a SB winning QB and really the Steelers will live and die with whether he can channel those SB days. 
 
3) Ravens- I think people are pumping the tires a bit excessively on the Ravens due to past history more than what they have shown this season. I'd prefer the Steelers to beat them, but it would be a big let down if this Patriots D and a healthy Gronk isn't enough to overcome a potential divisional round upset. 
 
4) Colts- I think Luck will outplay Dalton easily but the Colts are a very flawed team defensively and along the oline. Think the Cin game is a  legitimate tossup. 
 
5) Bengals- Bad Andy will kill this team's hopes it's just a matter of when he implodes. Nevertheless think they'll just force feed Hill against the Colts who can't stop the run worth a damn. 
 
No too creative or out there but I think it comes down to Manning - Brady in New England for a chance to go to Zona. This time I think the Pats move on. Good vibes. 

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

 
To be a bit of a Peter King, football is just such an absurdly complex sport.  We've all watched hundreds or thousands of hours of it, and a game like the Ravens-Steelers game is going to come down to how one or two rookies do in making adjustments to blitzes and whether there patched together secondary is all making the same reads.  Weird.

 
Yes, this was my point too.  The Ravens matched up extremely well with the Steelers when they first met but did not for the return match, primarily because of the personnel changes and injuries.  So who knows whether the Ravens as they currently stand are going to match up well with the Steelers?  
 
Here's another way to put it - despite having spent approximately $125M in salary this year, the Ravens' season is going to come down to how three or four UDFAs are going to play, one of whom wasn't even with the Ravens until about 4 weeks ago.  As they say, Super Bowls are usually won by the teams that stay the healthiest.

 

[54thMA]

The Ravens should send the Chargers a million and one thanks; in 2012 they converted a 4th and two miles on the Chargers that kept that drive and their season alive, a game then won in OT. If they didn't convert that 4th down, they'd have lost, finished 9-7 and out of the playoffs.
 
Then this year all the Chargers had to do was beat the Chefs and their back up QB; instead they lost and opened the door for the Ravens to grab the #6 seed.
 
They are already catching a break with the Bell situation; if he's not 100% or can't go at all, that will help them out a great deal to say the least.