The AFC Playoff Picture (formerly Ranking the AFC)

[Ferm Sheller]

Nothing would surprise me, but I have a feeling it's going to be:
 
1 NE
2 Denver
3 Pitt
4 Indy
5 Cincy
6 Balt
 
Pitt over Balt
Cincy over Indy
 
Pitt over Denver
NE over Cincy
 
NE over Pitt

 

[Stitch01]

I think the Colts can still get the three seed with a Bengal/Steeler tie

 

[Ferm Sheller]

I think the Colts can still get the three seed with a Bengal/Steeler tie

 
Thanks, Lloyd Christmas.

 

[GregHarris]

Not at all scared of Pittsburgh.  Game could end up being 47-35 but Pats would definitely win, at home.

 

[Morning Woodhead]

Not at all scared of Pittsburgh.  Game could end up being 47-35 but Pats would definitely win, at home.

 
Pittsburgh has played better as the season went on, but they have had a weak schedule.  On win %, the Steelers have played the easiest schedule in the NFL this year. 
 
They beat Indy, Cincy, and Atl/Car.  Those will most likely be their only wins against playoff teams (unless Baltimore, or KC sneak in).  I'd still rather play Indy, but I Pittsburgh is getting a lot of love for taking advantage of a soft schedule. 
 
For that matter, I think the entire AFC North has been overrated this year, getting to play the NFC South, and AFC South.  I think the entire division has an inflated record based on the easy schedule. 

 

[Stitch01]

Real talk...every other team in the AFC kind of sucks right now.
 
Bengals are talented but Dalton is better than even money to throw a pick six in Foxboro and they're really horrible against the run. Steelers secondary is a dumpster fire and their protection is middling.  Ravens secondary is a dumpster fire on accelerant and their offense stopped running the ball three weeks ago, plus Flacco.  San Diego is game, but on their 8th string offensive line with their QB really banged up and their defense wasn't that good to begin with.  KC throws 3 yard checkdowns in two minute drills and the coach is 50/50 to remember Jamal Charles is on his team.  Denver's offense is a cross between the 2009 two weapon and pray offense and the 2013 Patriots we're going to run the ball all the time offense and doesn't have any linebackers.  Indy is proving that you cant let a bunch of morons pick a team around an all world QB and magically have everything work out and their defense has sucked for half a season.
 
Things change from week to week, and the Pats offense has for sure struggled a bit in recent weeks, but everyone else is playing some sort of shitty right now except for possibly the Bengals and Steelers.  Everyone but Denver has an obvious flaw to pick on, and Denver is playing shittier than New England in all three phases of the game.

 

[GregHarris]

Baltimore on the other hand, scares me.  They can still put pressure on the QB, and even though they have no secondary to speak of - the team seems to play up every time they come to Gillette.  Add the fact that the Pats O-line seems to have regressed a little bit, I would prefer a different matchup.  Pats would win, but it would be a tough nail biting affair. 

 

[Morning Woodhead]

Baltimore on the other hand, scares me.  They can still put pressure on the QB, and even though they have no secondary to speak of - the team seems to play up every time they come to Gillette.  Add the fact that the Pats O-line seems to have regressed a little bit, I would prefer a different matchup.  Pats would win, but it would be a tough nail biting affair. 

 
Baltimore has beat exactly 2 teams this year with a winning record.  Pittsburgh in week 2, and Miami 3 weeks ago.  They will go the whole season and beat only one playoff eligible team.  Baltimore is typically the last team I want to see stroll into Foxboro in January, but this season, I'd welcome them. 

 

[dcmissle]

They do play up, they are all weather, we never see bad Flacco, and it is fair to say there is no intimidation factor in Fox with the Ravens.
 
At the same time, they have guys right off the street playing in the secondary.  It is almost impossible to overstate how thin they are.  They have to play back.  The quick outs are there all day.  It's as bad as the Redskins trying to cover a tight end.  You can't, though, settle for FGs.

 

[Hendu for Kutch]

They do play up, they are all weather, we never see bad Flacco, and it is fair to say there is no intimidation factor in Fox with the Ravens.
 
At the same time, they have guys right off the street playing in the secondary.  It is almost impossible to overstate how thin they are.  They have to play back.  The quick outs are there all day.  It's as bad as the Redskins trying to cover a tight end.  You can't, though, settle for FGs.

 
We never see Bad Flacco, but that's in large part due to the fact we've had a fairly weak secondary for several years, which is clearly not the case now.  I think they're a paper tiger whose fear is based on history rather than anything their current team has done.

 

[Stitch01]

Most of the Ravens that play up are gone.  The Pats curbstomped the Ravens last year with Flacco playing mediocre at best.  I wouldn't expect that big of a beating, but Id expect a comfortable win in Foxboro. 
 
That Ravens offense is a really good matchup for the Pats defense too, Revis can erase Steve Smith then they can choose to put Browner on either Torrey Smith with help or Owen Daniels with Arrington on Torrey Smith with help and that's basically that for the passing offense.  Kamar Aiken gets play as a tertiary option, not exactly scary stuff.

 

[GregHarris]

I hope you guys are right.  Everytime, I watch a Ravens game I see Dumervile or Suggs doing a sack dance once a drive.  Me scared.

 

[FL4WL3SS]

Real talk...every other team in the AFC kind of sucks right now.
 
Bengals are talented but Dalton is better than even money to throw a pick six in Foxboro and they're really horrible against the run. Steelers secondary is a dumpster fire and their protection is middling.  Ravens secondary is a dumpster fire on accelerant and their offense stopped running the ball three weeks ago, plus Flacco.  San Diego is game, but on their 8th string offensive line with their QB really banged up and their defense wasn't that good to begin with.  KC throws 3 yard checkdowns in two minute drills and the coach is 50/50 to remember Jamal Charles is on his team.  Denver's offense is a cross between the 2009 two weapon and pray offense and the 2013 Patriots we're going to run the ball all the time offense and doesn't have any linebackers.  Indy is proving that you cant let a bunch of morons pick a team around an all world QB and magically have everything work out and their defense has sucked for half a season.
 
Things change from week to week, and the Pats offense has for sure struggled a bit in recent weeks, but everyone else is playing some sort of shitty right now except for possibly the Bengals and Steelers.  Everyone but Denver has an obvious flaw to pick on, and Denver is playing shittier than New England in all three phases of the game.

The Patriot's offense has struggled the last couple of weeks, sure, but I don't discount the 'division rival in 2nd game' effect. The team has already seen you once this season and those games are typically very tough games to win.
 
The dropped balls aren't helping either.

 

[ObstructedView]

I hope you guys are right.  Everytime, I watch a Ravens game I see Dumervile or Suggs doing a sack dance once a drive.  Me scared.

I'm not as petrified of the Ravens as some seem to be, but I do have occasional nightmares in which Flacco throws rainbow after rainbow to draw contact flags from Browner. And yeah, the pass rush.

 

[normstalls]

If we are just dreaming, I would LOVE this scenario, way long shot, but possible.
 
Pats
Bengals
 
Broncos
Colts
Steelers
Ravens
 
Wildcard games
Ravens v Broncos
Steelers v Colts

 

[ShaneTrot]

I'd rather play Indy/Cincy in the Divisional than Pittsburgh who has a playoff tested QB and elite playmakers at RB/WR.

The Steelers have a dumpster fire for a secondary. 

 

[DJnVa]

I'd rather play a team (Cincy) that has a dumpster fire at QB but that's just me.

 
But if AJ Green is healthy (big if) along with Sanu, Bernard, and Hill they have some weapons.
 

 

[amarshal2]

1) New England
2) doesn't matter
3) doesn't matter
4) doesn't matter
5) doesn't matter
6) doesn't matter



[/tough guy]

Edit: fixed an error

 

[DJnVa]

What good are weapons if you don't know how to use them? I want the team with a hilariously bad QB and a propensity for melting down and committing stupid penalties.

 
No, I know, and I'm not even saying I would be scared of them. But if he catches fire in one game he's got a hell of a lot of people that can do damage around him.
 
 

 

[tims4wins]

Cincy/Dalton could be this year's 2012 Ravens/Flacco. Unlikely, but possible.

 

[jsinger121]

Cincy/Dalton could be this year's 2012 Ravens/Flacco. Unlikely, but possible.

 
They are still coached by Marvin Lewis and not someone like John Harbaugh. Huge difference.

 

[Old Fart Tree]

Psssssst all of the playoff teams can get hot and beat you.

Fortunately, we don't need to reach a consensus by this afternoon; we can choose not to exercise our selection power and instead let the games decide!

 

[tims4wins]

 
They are still coached by Marvin Lewis and not someone like John Harbaugh. Huge difference.

True. Interesting that both teams were written off fairly late in the year.

 

[loshjott]

I'm most leery of the teams/QBs who have won big post-season games in the past and won't be intimidated by the big stage: Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Denver.
 
I must say the Steelers have been off my radar screen all season and are shooting up my "most feared AFC opponent" board.

 

[Number45forever]

I absolutely do not get the Steelers fear.  The Pats of the last 5-7 years have absolutely curb-stomped the Steelers at every opportunity.  Brady especially has been God-like against them.  The Steelers cannot defend the pass.  This would not be a close game...they'd pull out the Lions game plan and have Brady throw it 45 times and Pittsburgh would not be able to stop them.

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

I'm most leery of the teams/QBs who have won big post-season games in the past and won't be intimidated by the big stage: Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Denver.
 
I must say the Steelers have been off my radar screen all season and are shooting up my "most feared AFC opponent" board.

 
I've been in the opposite camp.They started out 3-3, but the offense looked pretty good, even when the team was stumbling to some low scoring games. They scored 17 points or less in 3 of their first 6 games, wracking up 5 turnovers in those games. I think the turnovers were the biggest thing that slowed them down. Sure enough, the offense started to click, and here we are.
 
Still, the Patriots defense seems to match up pretty well with the Steelers offense. The Steelers only have one passing option in Antonio Brown (lead the team in yards in 14 of 16 games), and Revis can take him away. Their next best receiving option is probably Bell out of the backfield, and our linebackers can most likely keep him in check. That basically means the Steelers are going to have to win a low scoring, run the ball/dink-and-dunk type of game. 
 
With a bottom 10-12 ranked defense.
 
Against the Patriots.

 

[Leather]

I absolutely do not get the Steelers fear.  The Pats of the last 5-7 years have absolutely curb-stomped the Steelers at every opportunity.  Brady especially has been God-like against them.  The Steelers cannot defend the pass.  This would not be a close game...they'd pull out the Lions game plan and have Brady throw it 45 times and Pittsburgh would not be able to stop them.

 
The Patriots are 2-2 against the Steelers since 2008.

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

LeVeon Bell might be the best two-way back in the league and Antonio Brown is more than a handful. Big Ben can also get hot and has a playoff pedigree. My fear, if you can call it that, is purely on the defensive side of the ball. I think we'd put up a number starting with a "3" but I also think that they'd score enough to make it uncomfortable. Even with a great RB tandem, I don't have that fear with Cincy because Dalton. Ditto for Indy because they are too one-dimensional.

 
Why?
 
The Patriots are 8th in the NFL in defensive points per game. The Steelers have played 4 games against the top 7 defenses in points per game this year. 
 
Baltimore x2
Kansas City
Houston
 
They are averaging 24.7 points against these teams. I'm not completely impartial, but I think the Patriots defense is better than any of those 4 defenses and I think they match up much better against the Steelers.
 
When you think of what the Steelers bring to the table in the passing game, it's essentially Antonio Brown & Leveon Bell (out of the backfield). FO has the Patriots as the 7th best at shutting down opponents #1 WR, and 12th at shutting down RB. It's been known around here for a bit, but the FO numbers bear out that tight ends can give this team trouble (maybe shaking our faith in our love for Chung?).
 
Heath Miller isn't winning the football game for the Steelers.
 
If the Broncos remember that they're supposed to be good, they worry me. If the Ravens can get pressure with their front 4, they worry me. The Steelers putting up 20 points does not worry me.

 

[H78]

Honest question: why do people like to point out that teams have a weak secondary as if to imply that the Patriots are going to tear them in half? That's not the Patriots' game anymore. It hasn't been for years. As of late, people have said this before they played the Packers, the Chargers, and the Jets, and the Patriots (while going 2-1 in those games) didn't really "tear into" any of those secondaries. With a downfield passing attack not being a huge area of strength on offense anymore, it doesn't really matter all that much if a team is weak in the secondary because Brady doesn't have the kind of 20+ yard down field accuracy to take advantage of it. And that's OK, because he's still great in the intermediate and short passing game.

What I pay much more attention to is how strong the front-7 is on whatever team they're about to play. If "X" team has a weak front 7, then I think they'll get torn apart because of how effective the Patriots' short passing and power running game is right now. But while it's fun to think about, teams with weak secondaries don't really play into our strengths on offense like I think a lot of people like to think it does.

The good news is I don't see anyone in the AFC with the kind of DL and LBs that should prevent the Patriots from winning their next two home playoff games. The bad news is I think there are one or two teams in the NFC that could easily have the front 7 to bottle up the Patriots' attack.

 

[DJnVa]

 
The Patriots are 2-2 against the Steelers since 2008.

 
Brady isn't:
 
2013: 55-31 win, 151.8 rating
2011: 25-17 loss, 101.8 rating
2010: 39-26 win, 117.4 rating
 
Also beat them in 2005 and 2007.
 
Only lost to them twice--2011 and 2004. 5-2 in regular season, 2-0 in postseason.
 
EDIT: Wait, in 2008, the Steelers beat the Matt Cassel led Pats. Mea culpa.
 
Brady however, tears them a new one.

 

[Ed Hillel]

With Revis and BB's power combined, I think the Pats could limit Brown and Bell. Pitt's threats outside of them are Bryant, Wheaton, and Miller. Not bad, but not terribly frightening, either. I think they could hold Pitt to 17-24 and would expect them to put up 30+ on that defense. Brady may even hit a few deep balls against them by toying with Polamalmlaulauloo with his eyes again. Pitt may actually be the team best equipped to beat NE now in the AFC, with Manning throwing like Johnny Damon, but Pitt would have a couple of tough games to get there, including having to go into Denver.

 

[Toe Nash]

Honest question: why do people like to point out that teams have a weak secondary as if to imply that the Patriots are going to tear them in half? That's not the Patriots' game anymore. It hasn't been for years. As of late, people have said this before they played the Packers, the Chargers, and the Jets, and the Patriots (while going 2-1 in those games) didn't really "tear into" any of those secondaries. With a downfield passing attack not being a huge area of strength on offense anymore, it doesn't really matter all that much if a team is weak in the secondary because Brady doesn't have the kind of 20+ yard down field accuracy to take advantage of it. And that's OK, because he's still great in the intermediate and short passing game.

What I pay much more attention to is how strong the front-7 is on whatever team they're about to play. If "X" team has a weak front 7, then I think they'll get torn apart because of how effective the Patriots' short passing and power running game is right now. But while it's fun to think about, teams with weak secondaries don't really play into our strengths on offense like I think a lot of people like to think it does.

The secondary is usually covering the WRs and Gronk though, even if they are running routes within 10 yards of the LOS. Gronk is too fast to be covered by most LBs. They may not need someone who can stick with guys on deep routes so much but the "secondary" is still important.

 

[Sportsbstn]

In the last 2 years, in both losses in the playoffs the falloff happened when Talib got hurt in the games in both years.   The Patriots secondary has a more talented corner in Revis now and a much superior secondary than anything over the last few years.  The Patriots make mistakes with turnovers and flags and they can lose to any team in the playoffs, but play their game and absolutely no one in the AFC will beat them.  You know Brady will be hungry and Revis as well.  

 

[Toe Nash]

Teams have generally been avoiding throwing to where Revis is, but I do wonder if in the playoffs that will change. Anecdotally there seems to be an insistence by a lot of coaches to "get your guys going" in the biggest games, or they may do it out of desperation after falling behind, and it seems like Revis may see more action.
 
If not, I'm fine with the usual Revis Island effect too.

 

[mulluysavage]

The teams that worry me: Green Bay and Dallas.

 

[Norm Siebern]

I find it reassuring that the Patriots have played, and already defeated, the possible playoff (as presently configured) opponent save for the Stillers, which is the only playoff team they have not played to date. It also says something about their strength if schedule, and how it will help. The Patriots have played very few cupcakes this year.

 

[ivanvamp]

The teams that worry me: Green Bay and Dallas.

 
Seattle doesn't worry you?  Why not?

 

[mulluysavage]

 
Seattle doesn't worry you?  Why not?

And Seattle.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

If Ravens somehow manage to get to the playoffs they are going to be one and done. Just too many injuries to overcome - latest being their right tackle who was having a tremendous year for a 1sr year starter. Olus Monroe was hurt last week and it's not clear he'll be playing. They have almost no shot to advance.

 

[j-man]

in the AFC its NE and DEN   and Denver is  shaky   right now  ne might have a 3 week bye to glendale     
 
 
 
in the NFC its Seattle Dallas and maybe Green bay   
Honesty  NE should beat any team not named Seattle by 2 TD'S   

 

[Devizier]

I have to say, it's amazing how different things look over the course of three weeks. 

 

[dynomite]

Honesty  NE should beat any team not named Seattle by 2 TD'S   

 
Would love for this to be the case, but crazy stuff happens in the playoffs.  In 2012 I thought the 10-6 Ravens were old and flawed on defense, and almost stopped watching that Ravens/Broncos Divisional game with ~1:00 left.  In 2010 I would have bet my house, car, dog and other possessions that the 14-2 Patriots would annihilate the 11-5 Jets.
 
I will say that I have a strange sense of zen about this year's playoffs.  If they have home field and a healthy Brady, Gronk, and Revis (knockonwoodknockonwood no backsies!!!!), there's nothing else to ask or hope for.  

 

[j-man]

 
Would love for this to be the case, but crazy stuff happens in the playoffs.  In 2012 I thought the 10-6 Ravens were old and flawed on defense, and almost stopped watching that Ravens/Broncos Divisional game with ~1:00 left.  In 2010 I would have bet my house, car, dog and other possessions that the 14-2 Patriots would annihilate the 11-5 Jets.
 
I will say that I have a strange sense of zen about this year's playoffs.  If they have home field and a healthy Brady, Gronk, and Revis (knockonwoodknockonwood no backsies!!!!), there's nothing else to ask or hope for.  

in 2010 i would had too  that pats team was great   would had won the superbowl had they beat the jets   that season  
 
and the ravens denver game denver could had won 3 diff times   1 the refs kept slowing our no huddle down  in the 3rd q 2 Different times when we were about 3 plays from going up 10  the refs would huddle and stop the game for a min    2 Rahim Moore  i would help him pack  he is overrated big time  3 John Fox Peyon    Mike Mccoy in the last 2 min all denver needed was 1 first down  fox played too safe  but the killer was 28 sec left tie game  40-45 yards from field goal range  Fox keels  to go to ot  when 2 manning sideline routes        and pater was the best long range K  that year  40 yards that all we needed   for a change  not to metroin Manning awful throw across the field in the 2nd ot    

 

[tims4wins]

A ridiculous amount of things had to go right for the 2012 Ravens to win it all. Maybe as much as the 2001 Pats. They wouldn't have even made the playoffs if not for the 4th and 23 or whatever it was vs. San Diego. That was their David Patten concussed out of bounds moment.

 

[Ed Hillel]

A ridiculous amount of things had to go right for the 2012 Ravens to win it all. Maybe as much as the 2001 Pats. They wouldn't have even made the playoffs if not for the 4th and 23 or whatever it was vs. San Diego. That was their David Patten concussed out of bounds moment.

Oh God. Flacco throws a checkdown on 4th and 23 and Rice breaks 7 tackles, including 3 guys tackling each other. I believe replay showed he was short of the marker, as well, but they didn't reverse. That was one of the craziest plays ever. Flacco made a completely insane decision and it worked out.

 

[Over Guapo Grande]

Per ESPN crawl, Alex Smith out tomorrow vs. SD. Chase Daniel starting for KC.

 

[johnmd20]

Oh God. Flacco throws a checkdown on 4th and 23 and Rice breaks 7 tackles, including 3 guys tackling each other. I believe replay showed he was short of the marker, as well, but they didn't reverse. That was one of the craziest plays ever. Flacco made a completely insane decision and it worked out.

 
That was their Christmas miracle.

 

[richgedman'sghost]

Per ESPN crawl, Alex Smith out tomorrow vs. SD. Chase Daniel starting for KC.

Kinda ironic that this is Chase Daniels' 2nd career start. His first career start came in similar circumstances last year: week 17 against the Chargers.  Daniels went 21-of-30 passing (70 percent) for 200 yards and one touchdown pass in the 27-24 loss to San Diego.

 

[TomTerrific]

Per ESPN crawl, Alex Smith out tomorrow vs. SD. Chase Daniel starting for KC.

 
Good. Baltimore fans must be livid.

 

[SumnerH]

in the AFC its NE and DEN   and Denver is  shaky   right now  ne might have a 3 week bye to glendale     
 
 
 
in the NFC its Seattle Dallas and maybe Green bay   
Honesty  NE should beat any team not named Seattle by 2 TD'S   

I think the Pats are looking awesome, but you honestly have them as 14 point favorites over Green Bay on a neutral field? That needs explanation.