The AFC Playoff Picture (formerly Ranking the AFC)

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

I think the Pats are looking awesome, but you honestly have them as 14 point favorites over Green Bay on a neutral field? That needs explanation.

 
No it doesn't.
 
J-man is a good dude, but he's prone to serious bouts of hyperbole.

 

[DegenerateSoxFan]

 
I will say that I have a strange sense of zen about this year's playoffs.  If they have home field and a healthy Brady, Gronk, and Revis (knockonwoodknockonwood no backsies!!!!), there's nothing else to ask or hope for.  

It'd be nice if the O-line started playing like it did when the team was putting up 40 a game. They've been mostly getting pushed around lately, and I don't want to see a replay of the game that shall not be mentioned.

 

[MoGator71]

 
Good. Baltimore fans must be livid.

 
I think we can all be happy about that. 

 

[LogansDad]

It'd be nice if the O-line started playing like it did when the team was putting up 40 a game. They've been mostly getting pushed around lately, and I don't want to see a replay of the game that shall not be mentioned.

To be fair, they have faced pretty good defensive fronts the last 5 weeks and put up 34, 21, 23, 41 and 17 points.
 
Obviously the most recent of those was the scary Jets game, but the Jets Defensive Linemen are really, really good.  Combine that with the fact that Rex has spent his entire career coaching for the Pats games and will likely be out of a job next week because of it, and I am not super concerned.
 
I wouldn't go so far as to say I have a "zen" feeling, and I agree the O-Line is likely the biggest weakness, but I am as confident as any AFC team's fan can be at this point.

 

[millionthcustomer]

 
Good. Baltimore fans must be livid.

But, now Josh Gordon is out against the Ravens.  San Diego fans must be livid.

 

[NortheasternPJ]

But, now Josh Gordon is out against the Ravens.  San Diego fans must be livid.

Those 8 catches over the last 3 weeks are impossible to replace!!!

 

[tims4wins]

So I think I have this right:
Indy is locked into the 4 seed
Cincy and Pitt are playing for the 3/5 seeds
SD is win and in - and would be the 6 seed
If SD loses it opens the door for Baltimore to take the 6 seed
If both SD and Balt lose then it opens the door for Houston. If Houston loses then KC gets the 6 in this scenario
Denver is the 2 seed if they win but would fall to the 3 with a loss and a Cincy win. If Pitt wins then Denver is the 2 no matter what Denver does

 

[Ferm Sheller]

Yes, but as someone mentioned earlier, in the unlikely instance that Pitt and Cincy ties, Indy would grab the #3 seed with a win.

 

[tims4wins]

True good point

 

[tims4wins]

So it's gonna be an AFC North battle in the 3-6 game and either Cincy or Pitt at Indy in the 4-5 game. Should be two very competitive games.

 

[Old Fart Tree]

The AFC N sucks. That's the benefit of getting to play the NFC south; three fucking teams make the playoffs. If the AFC East had played the NFC south, they'd have two or three reps too. 

 

[Toe Nash]

The AFC N sucks. That's the benefit of getting to play the NFC south; three fucking teams make the playoffs. If the AFC East had played the NFC south, they'd have two or three reps too. 

Pittsburgh actually lost to NO and TB and lost by three to TEN. But you're mostly right; CIN and BAL went 7-0-1 against the NFC south.

 

[jsinger121]

AFC North feasted on the likes of Jacksonville, Tennessee and the NFC South. All 3 teams have yet to be tested by anyone.

 

[Old Fart Tree]

In a perfect world, the Pats get to play two of those AFCN teams in the playoffs. Unlikely, but you never know. They're garbage. 

 

[H78]

After how they've played the last few weeks, is SoSH as confident now as we all were 5 weeks ago about the Pats steamrolling the AFC, even with HFA?

I'm legitimately worried about the O line and Brady's erratic accuracy costing them in the Divisional Round or AFCCG.

 

[Silverdude2167]

After how they've played the last few weeks, is SoSH as confident now as we all were 5 weeks ago about the Pats steamrolling the AFC, even with HFA?

I'm legitimately worried about the O line and Brady's erratic accuracy costing them in the Divisional Round or AFCCG.

They won't face a front 4 anywhere near as good as Miami, NYJ or Buffalo. Add Connolly and Edelman back in and I think they will be able to score points at a high rate. Even if the O is miss firing, I think the D is good enough for them to win with a subpar performance by the offense. 
 
Who scares you?

 

[ivanvamp]

Throw today's game out.  They were missing two starting OL and their two best receivers (Gronk/Edelman).  Yeah the rest of the guys didn't play too well, but it's a completely different team with Gronk and Edelman plus the starting OL.
 
So, taking today's game out, here are their home scores, from Cincy through Miami:
 
43-17
27-25
51-23
43-21
34-9
41-13
 
Average:  39.8 - 18.0
 
Not saying that's what the scores will be during the playoffs, but a fully healthy offense, playing at Gillette, and yeah, I'm pretty confident.
 
However, if you tell me come game time that Connelly and Solder and Edelman aren't playing, and yeah, I'll be worried.

 

[H78]

They won't face a front 4 anywhere near as good as Miami, NYJ or Buffalo. Add Connolly and Edelman back in and I think they will be able to score points at a high rate. Even if the O is miss firing, I think the D is good enough for them to win with a subpar performance by the offense. 
 
Who scares you?

Today?

Baltimore. They have the kind of guys who step up in the playoffs and given how the O line is playing I could see them in Brady's face and limiting the Pats to under 20 points, which could be good enough for them to win.

A month ago I thought the Pats would smoke Baltimore. I don't feel nearly as confident now that the O line is struggling again.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Today?

Baltimore. They have the kind of guys who step up in the playoffs and given how the O line is playing I could see them in Brady's face and limiting the Pats to under 20 points, which could be good enough for them to win.

A month ago I thought the Pats would smoke Baltimore. I don't feel nearly as confident now that the O line is struggling again.

 
You mean the O-line that sat 2 starters and the starting TE today?

 

[H78]

Throw today's game out.  They were missing two starting OL and their two best receivers (Gronk/Edelman).  Yeah the rest of the guys didn't play too well, but it's a completely different team with Gronk and Edelman plus the starting OL.
 
So, taking today's game out, here are their home scores, from Cincy through Miami:
 
43-17
27-25
51-23
43-21
34-9
41-13
 
Average:  39.8 - 18.0
 
Not saying that's what the scores will be during the playoffs, but a fully healthy offense, playing at Gillette, and yeah, I'm pretty confident.
 
However, if you tell me come game time that Connelly and Solder and Edelman aren't playing, and yeah, I'll be worried.

I really don't think it's fair to disregard the line play in New York last week. That was hardly HFA for the Jets and they were constantly in Brady's face. I don't think the O line will suddenly play better just because more people in the stands are wearing Patriots merch in the next two games.

I think there are real problems right now and if a team can find a way to generate pressure with a four man rush, the Patriots could be in trouble.

 

[tims4wins]

Well Connolly didn't play last week either. His health is definitely important. IIRC he was banged up against Miami too.

 

[TheMoralBully]

The o-line was pretty poor for halves against GB and Miami, and full games against San Diego and NY.  No team scares me; every team has their flaw and the Patriots are favorites in the AFC for good reason, but I don't think some worry over the o-line and offense is completely unfounded.

 

[H78]

 
You mean the O-line that sat 2 starters and the starting TE today?

Yes, the same team that didn't do that last week and got abused in NY. This is becoming a bit of a trend. I think we're better off acknowledging it than finding a million homerish reasons to justify why we shouldn't expect the problems to pop up in January.

Can they fix it before then? Sure. But as of today this is a real problem, that's my only point. Particularly when you consider that most of their playoff exists the last ten years can directly be attributed to teams dialing up their pass rush in the playoffs and the Patriots, with Brady running in sand, haven't had an answer.

 

[DJnVa]

So there's a blueprint?

 

[Silverdude2167]

Today?

Baltimore. They have the kind of guys who step up in the playoffs and given how the O line is playing I could see them in Brady's face and limiting the Pats to under 20 points, which could be good enough for them to win.

A month ago I thought the Pats would smoke Baltimore. I don't feel nearly as confident now that the O line is struggling again.

Who on Baltimore steps up in the playoffs? This is not their superbowl team.

 

[H78]

So there's a blueprint?

So you haven't seen the Patriots get dumped because the Jets, Ravens (x2), and Giants (x2) came in and beat the Patriots in part because questionable offense lines?

this has happened time and time again. I have no idea why some folks can't acknowledge this is at least somewhat of a concern moving forward. Then, what if they get through the AFC and play, say, Seattle? Are we of the mindset that we'll "worry about it then"?

I'm simply bringing an objective viewpoint regarding what concerns me about this team. You can disagree, but to act like an ass and completely try to dismiss the point is pretty ignorant and homerish.

 

[H78]

Who on Baltimore steps up in the playoffs? This is not their superbowl team.

Remember in 2012 when we all said they were old and not a Super Bowl team? Suggs and Ngata can bring it when they have to.

 

[Silverdude2167]

Remember in 2012 when we all said they were old and not a Super Bowl team? Suggs and Ngata can bring it when they have to.

So you are afraid of a team because of two players? That 2012 had been in the AFCCG the year before and had a ton of players returning. This team not so much.

 

[H78]

The reason they got dumped by those teams was they had great D lines. The Pats will not see a D line comparable to that unless they face Seattle or Detroit in the Super Bowl. I'm not dismissing o line issues but they are not as bad as you are making them out to be.

And if not "worry about it then", what is your suggestion? They're not adding players at this point. Do you think they aren't trying to improve the play of every unit, every week?

My suggestion is just to acknowledge that it's an area of concern and not dismiss it because we want to wish it not to be true.

The O line is a problem. It's something that's ended their season before. I'm concerned. That's my only point.

 

[H78]

So you are afraid of a team because of two players? That 2012 had been in the AFCCG the year before and had a ton of players returning. This team not so much.

NOBODY not named Mike Felger thought that Baltimore team was going to win. We all said they were too old, but it turns out when your O-line sucks an older defense can take advantage.

 

[Silverdude2167]

NOBODY not named Mike Felger thought that Baltimore team was going to win. We all said they were too old, but it turns out when your O-line sucks an older defense can take advantage.

I mean you are right about the o-line and it could sink them and that is true about facing everyone, but Baltimore has beat one winning team this year (Pitt in week 2). I don't see a reason to be afraid of them beyond losing to them 3 years ago They are a few injuries away from calling us to play for them in the secondary and their offense should have issues with the Pats D.

 

[Shelterdog]

So there's a blueprint?

Sure there is. You doubt think "Have a dominant DL" counts as a blueprint any team can copy?

Edit: I think Connolly has been hurting since about GB-which is roughly when the line started to have some issues-so hopefully he comes back strong. I frankly think all three AFC East teams have better defensive lines than anyone other than Denver so I'm not particularly worried that the last three games are a harbinger of worse things to come.

 

[k-factory]

Its highly unlikely the Ravens beat either Pittsburgh or the Bengals on the road. Both those teams have more weapons and will be at home. 
 
In all probability its going to be the #4 (Indy) or #5 (loser of pitt/cinci) seed heading to Foxborough. 
 
None of these teams are all that scary - that is to say each has a more glaring weakness than the Pats. 
 
Compare that to the NFC mix - Seattle, GB, Dallas, Arizona, a resurgent Carolina, Detroit 
 
You don't want to be counting chickens but the Pats road seems far less hostile.

 

[H78]

. Sure there is. You doubt think "Have a dominant DL" counts as a blueprint any team can copy?

As of this morning Baltimore was #3 in sacks, behind Buffalo and Philly.

 

[Silverdude2167]

As of this morning Baltimore was #3 in sacks, behind Buffalo and Philly.

More than half of those sacks 23 of 45 came in four games against Tampa (8), Atlanta (5), Titans (5), Jacksonville (5), That is 1.8 sacks per game for the other 12 games or 29 over a 16 game season. It is not a fair analysis to remove those four games and compare then compare them against the rest of the league over a 16 game season, but those 4 teams had 12 wins total.
 
They are getting far more respect than they deserve around here.

 

[Stitch01]

Yeah the OL is a concern. No, I'm not concerned about Baltimore in particular.

 

[Shelterdog]

As of this morning Baltimore was #3 in sacks, behind Buffalo and Philly.

 
They've got a good defensive line and they could certainly cause some problems.  I think the rest of the team is a shitshow so I'm not particularly worried about an upset. 
 
The interior oline is clearly the weakest link on the Pats right now but I don't see it as that debilitating a problem as long as you're in the AFC--the teams with the good fronts generally didn't make the playoffs.  When you look at adjusted sack rate on FO the top six teams are Buffalo, Jacksonville, Miami, Baltimore, the Jets and the Chiefs.  So yes, when the Pats play the top five or six DLs by at least one measure of pass rush pressure they struggle. 

 

[DJnVa]

As of this morning Baltimore was #3 in sacks, behind Buffalo and Philly.

 
We get it.
 
But there is a reason they're the 6th seed.

 

[H78]

 
We get it.
 
But there is a reason they're the 6th seed.

No, you didn't.

 

[DJnVa]

No, you didn't.

 
Relax dude.
 
Everyone here understands that "any given Sunday" and all that. But you are severely overhyping a team that struggled to beat the Browns at home today and only made the playoffs because the Chargers choked.

 

[H78]

Yeah, I mean I don't think Baltimore would come into Foxboro and blow the Patriots out. But with their pass rush and just 21 points scored, I could easily envision a situation where they win a 21-17 kind of game. They seem to have JUST enough offensive firepower and JUST enough of a pass rush (mixed with our O line issues) to be a problematic matchup.

 

[Ed Hillel]

I can't really see the Patriots being held to 17 points against that Secondary. Spread them wide if you have to, nobody is covering the receivers.

 

[jsinger121]

Yeah, I mean I don't think Baltimore would come into Foxboro and blow the Patriots out. But with their pass rush and just 21 points scored, I could easily envision a situation where they win a 21-17 kind of game. They seem to have JUST enough offensive firepower and JUST enough of a pass rush (mixed with our O line issues) to be a problematic matchup.

Revis and Browner can take the Smith's out of the game and I don't see Justin Forsett killing this team.

 

[Silverdude2167]

Yeah, I mean I don't think Baltimore would come into Foxboro and blow the Patriots out. But with their pass rush and just 21 points scored, I could easily envision a situation where they win a 21-17 kind of game. They seem to have JUST enough offensive firepower and JUST enough of a pass rush (mixed with our O line issues) to be a problematic matchup.

You are aware that the Pats Defense has given up 21 points once since their bye, right? That was to the second highest scoring offense in the league on the road, so what makes you think Baltimore can get there?

 

[H78]

 
Relax dude.
 
Everyone here understands that "any given Sunday" and all that. But you are severely overhyping a team that struggled to beat the Browns at home today and only made the playoffs because the Chargers choked.

But that doesn't mean anything, only the matchup does. The Pats lost to three non playoff teams this year, so why aren't they susceptible to losing to a tough, hard-hitting team with a legitimate pass rush?

If the best teams won every year, the #1 seeds in both conferences would always play in the Super Bowl. That rarely happens because, as we all know, football (seemingly more than any other sport) is a game of matchups, and my only point is Baltimore would be a tough matchup. Tougher than we want to believe they are. This is only worsened by the recently suspect O line play.

Would I bet on the Pats? Probably. But I would be 0% shocked if they lost a close game to a Ravens team with a defense built the way it's built.

 

[staz]

No waiting around... Sat Jan 10 4:35p lowest remaining seed at NE.

 

[jsinger121]

But that doesn't mean anything, only the matchup does. The Pats lost to three non playoff teams this year, so why aren't they susceptible to losing to a tough, hard-hitting team with a legitimate pass rush?

If the best teams won every year, the #1 seeds in both conferences would always play in the Super Bowl. That rarely happens because, as we all know, football (seemingly more than any other sport) is a game of matchups, and my only point is Baltimore would be a tough matchup. Tougher than we want to believe they are. This is only worsened by the recently suspect O line play.

Would I bet on the Pats? Probably. But I would be 0% shocked if they lost a close game to a Ravens team with a defense built the way it's built.

They lost to 3 non playoff teams that had 8-8 records or better. They didn't lose to crap teams and they laid down for the Bills today.

 

[H78]

You are aware that the Pats Defense has given up 21 points once since their bye, right? That was to the second highest scoring offense in the league on the road, so what makes you think Baltimore can get there?

Ok, so because the Jets, Bills, Dolphins and Chargers didn't score 21, no one will, right?

Are you saying the Patriots won't give up 21 points on the way to Lombardi #4?

 

[H78]

Let me restate my point:

I would not be shocked if the Patriots lost to the Ravens. It looks like it could be a tough matchup based on how well they rush the passer and how poorly we've protected our passer as of late.

Why are people so put off by that thought, again?

 

[staz]

If PIT wins tonight:

Sat 1/3 4:35
ARI @ CAR

Sat 1/3 8:15
BAL @ PIT

Sun 1/4 1:05
CIN @ IND

Sun 1/4 4:40
DET @ DAL

Sat 1/10 4:35
Low Seed @ NE

Sat 1/10 8:15
Low Seed @ SEA

Sun 1/11 1:05
High Seed @ GB

Sun 1/11 4;40
High Seed @ DEN