Yeah, that wouldn't shock me. I would be shocked if they gave up real assets for a big name rental, but a cheap flier, sure.
The 2023 Injury Thread
- Thread starter Rovin Romine
- Start date
I think something to keep in mind here is they've got 10 pitchers in the bullpen right now, which obviously is more than normal. Even if you count Pivetta as a starter because he's going to be a bulk guy every 5 days, that's 9 relievers they can mix and match. Some of which can be optioned for fresh arms if need be (Schreiber's return brings a fresh arm all by itself).
I looked into this the other day and over the last 10 games (11 calendar days), which included Whitlock's injury shortened outing, they only went to guys on back to back days three times (Martin x 2, Jacques x 1). So the distribution of innings worked out fairly well and no one was overly taxed. Now with four days off for everyone except Jansen, they could probably swing another 10 game stretch in similar fashion. After that, they can re-evaluate everything...if anyone has been over-used, where are the injured pitchers on their return, and what is available on the trade market with <10 days to go to the deadline.
I think Bloom and company are probably going to wait and see how the trio of potential spot starters in Worcester look before seeing if they need to go outside the organization.
If one of Bear Claw, Lamet, or Drohan looks good, they could use them as either a spot starter or in the post-opener Pivetta role.
If Whitlock makes a quick return in the next couple weeks too, that would change the picture in terms of needing to trade for a starter.
They probably want to avoid trading for a starter as much as possible given the market. A lot of teams are still in it and of the teams that aren’t like Oakland, the type of starter the Red Sox would want like a JP Sears is the type of pitcher Oakland isn’t going to trade (cost-controlled for years and competent).
If one of Bear Claw, Lamet, or Drohan looks good, they could use them as either a spot starter or in the post-opener Pivetta role.
If Whitlock makes a quick return in the next couple weeks too, that would change the picture in terms of needing to trade for a starter.
They probably want to avoid trading for a starter as much as possible given the market. A lot of teams are still in it and of the teams that aren’t like Oakland, the type of starter the Red Sox would want like a JP Sears is the type of pitcher Oakland isn’t going to trade (cost-controlled for years and competent).
Thanks for laying this all out and I'm guessing this is similar to what we may see. There is a double edge to this sword though. Off days are being used to avoid those extra bullpen starts while keeping the others in their normal 4 days of rest which works OK. However those days off also would have provided a 5th day of rest in between starts which is usually as welcomed as the summer wears on.
Yeah I don’t love the idea of pushing Bello too hard. Though thankfully, he did get stretched out decently last season with a total of 152 IP between all levels which means he should be good for 175-180ish this season using the standard 25-30 IP increase YoY for young major league starters.
They were pretty careful with him early on so he only has 86 IP so far (6 of those at AAA). Hopefully that means he won’t tire as much as other young starters down the stretch.
Schreiber & Bleier both seem almost ready to return.
View: https://twitter.com/SoxProspects/status/1680023884416917506
View: https://twitter.com/SoxProspects/status/1680025256814075905
& Pablo had a AA homer & went 2-3 with a walk.
View: https://twitter.com/PortlandSeaDogs/status/1680009938326749184
View: https://twitter.com/SoxProspects/status/1680023884416917506
View: https://twitter.com/SoxProspects/status/1680025256814075905
& Pablo had a AA homer & went 2-3 with a walk.
View: https://twitter.com/PortlandSeaDogs/status/1680009938326749184
When I first read this i thought this was exciting news about the start of a rehab assignment, but it is just news of future news.
View: https://twitter.com/IanMBrowne/status/1680253609311698948
View: https://twitter.com/IanMBrowne/status/1680253609311698948
I still think Bloom could and should leverage Yorke and some others to bring in a decent no.3 type starter with control for another season. Immediate need is obvious but long term too. I think they need 2 starters from outside the organization-one preferably being Yamamoto- the other being someone to also help ASAP.
Total spitball but if the Mets start selling, wonder if we could take Verlander’s contract for a modest return. He’d be a perfect 1.5 season gap filler.
A decent #3 with control for 2024 is going to cost a lot more than Yorke is my guess in this market.
I’d actually look to add someone like tonight’s opposition pitcher:signed thru 2023, 2 yrs/$50M (22-23) & 24 player option.
I’d offer Yorke, Drohan and Dalbec…..
I’d offer Yorke, Drohan and Dalbec…..
This would be an amazingly bad trade considering it's currently 2023...
All you'd be buying beyond this season is the chance that if Stroman blows out his arm, you can pay him next season.
I have a soft spot in my heart for Stroman & wanted the Sox to sign him last time he was a free agent, but I don't think his remaining contract is worth either of Yorke or Drohan - let alone both. They can absolutely have Dalbec, though...
Just out of curiosity, do you have any trade scenario, in any thread, that doesn't include trading Yorke?
No.
edit- to add more… I suspect he’s at peak value. I don’t like his general game from all Ive read and suspect that Meidroth has a better future.
Out of all the guys in the mL MI “logjam”, I also think he’d be the best to bring the most return
There’s no chance Stroman picks up that option, so if you acquire him, it’s purely as a rental.
Stroman actually looks pretty primed for a regression. His BABIP & HR/FB rates are super low for him, while his BB rates are super high.
Hopefully the regression starts today
I feel pretty confident that Yorke is going to be a better pro than Meidroth... of course there won't be room for either at 2B with Mayer/Cespedes.
He should have just removed “in Oakland”. Wasn’t really important to the message he was trying to convey
I'm honestly trying to figure this out. From all that you've read, you don't like his general game, but you think he'd bring the most return. What are others reading that you aren't, or vice versa, because this seems to be somewhat in conflict.
Exactly. I was thinking of saying something about a misplaced modifier, but I already correct too much grammar as it is
This may be where the current plan may prevent much leveraging. Giving a up top prospect and more for possible short term starter because they have 5 starting pitchers not starting (hurt/shitty) seems unlikely to me. The plan for the year had 8 possible starting pitchers. If all healthy and good they win 95 games. if they all suck they win 65. I just don't see Bloom trying to patch over an injury run like that. He may pick up a nominal starter, but I think its close to ride or die with the starters.
I think Paxton being healthy and a legit #1 might have changed their outlook on this season. If they get in the postseason, if you squint this team could steal a championship.
But we probably need a starter to get us there.
I agree that it’s probably going to take an inning eater starter to get us there…but if they can get in the dance, they have a path if they can get some guys healthy. Unless Whitlock comes back all of the sudden in the next 10 days but it doesn’t sound like he’s that close. Sale and Houck sound at least 3 weeks out too.
The way to making a playoff run is having Paxton/Bello/Sale/Houck all healthy…especially the first 3.
Starting Tuesday after coming back from a hammy.
https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/cardinals-jordan-montgomery-next-start-coming-tuesday/amp/
Thanks also! This is doubly useful when looking at the potential effects of a game like todays. To expand a bit on it with some recent information on injuries hidden amongst the trade speculation.
July 14 @ Cubs Bello - Bello (6), Winckowski, Bernardino, Scott, Jansen (.1).
July 15 @ Cubs Paxton - Paxton (3), Scott, Rodriguez, Jaques, Walter (2).
July 16 @ Cubs Crawford
July 17 @ A’s Bullpen/Pivetta
July 18 @ A’s Bullpen
July 19 @ A’s Bello
July 21 vs NYM Paxton
(Schreiber and Bleier possible return?)
July 22 vs NYM CrawfordJuly 23 vs NYM Bullpen/Pivetta
July 25 vs ATL Bello
July 26 vs ATL Paxton
July 28 @ SF Crawford
July 29 @ SF Bullpen/Pivetta
July 30 @ SF Bello
Aug 1 @ SEA Paxton
(Trade Deadline)
Aug 2 @ SEA CrawfordAug 4 vs TOR Bullpen/Pivetta
Aug 5 vs TOR Bello
Aug 6 vs TOR Paxton
Aug 7 vs KC Crawford
Aug 8 vs KC Bullpen
Aug 9 vs KC Bullpen/Pivetta
Aug 10 vs KC Bello
Aug 11 vs DET Paxton
Aug 12 vs DET Crawford
Aug 13 vs DET Bullpen/Pivetta
(Story, Sale, Houck in "mid august" possible return?)
Aug 15 @ WSNAug 16 @ WSN
Aug 17 @ WSN
(the Gauntlet starts)
Aug 18 @ NYYAug 19 @ NYY
Aug 20 @ NYY
Aug 21 @ HOU
Aug 22 @ HOU
Aug 23 @ HOU
Aug 24 @ HOU
Aug 25 vs LAD
Aug 26 vs LAD
Aug 27 vs LAD
Aug 28 vs HOU
Aug 29 vs HOU
Aug 30 vs HOU
So. . .much hangs on Whitlock, including any August 1 moves for pitching heading into the remainder of the year.
I don't see a lot of position player movement if they have solid info that Story is due back in mid-August. SS is the one glaring hole at this point. Maybe the move Dalbec, Hernandez, Duvall, with the "change of scenery" argument?
SP appears to be the thing. If Whitlock has a super positive report in the next 12 days, I can see them standing pat, hoping to get one of Sale or Houck back into action before the Aug. 18 Gauntlet. I could also see a 2020 Pivetta "project pitcher" type trade, rather than a true rental. But who knows? It will all likely hinge on how the injured players are progressing. If Whitlock and Sale and Houck all suffer serious setbacks between now and Aug. 1. . .
At this point I'd rather just pick up some random ~1 WAR pitcher on an expiring contract who can be had for cheap. Just need someone to soak up a few innings in the next 30 days.
Steven Matz, Drew Smyly, Rich Hill, Paul Blackburn, Joey Lucchesi, Carlos Carrasco seem like the best kind of fits. There really aren’t a lot of these kinds of guys floating around anymore though- a combination of openers / younger players taking more rotation slots and parity, I think (and the fact that the only teams clearly out of it…are out of it because they don’t have any pitching).
Devers almost ready to return.
View: https://twitter.com/MikeMonaco_/status/1681450993286881281
& Sale & Whitlock moving in the right direction?
View: https://twitter.com/MikeMonaco_/status/1681449429906391049
View: https://twitter.com/MikeMonaco_/status/1681450993286881281
& Sale & Whitlock moving in the right direction?
View: https://twitter.com/MikeMonaco_/status/1681449429906391049
The big KLUBER update everyone has been waiting for...
View: https://twitter.com/PortlandSeaDogs/status/1682062691194527744
View: https://twitter.com/PortlandSeaDogs/status/1682062691194527744
It doesn't make total sense that he's been as terrible as he has this year, so I would think they would let him try to recover what's left of his ability one last time. If they can save a few prospects from a trade because Kluber is ready to eat some competent innings, that's a big development, particularly in the context of a season which you might not want to invest in.
More seriously. . .his numbers on Savant show a bit of a velocity jump when he's in the bullpen, but out of his 7 appearances from the pen, he's only had 3 decent showings. The rest were disastrous.
I mean, take a look, see if he can maybe contribute as the last man in the pen. Maybe he can replicate those 3 out of 7 more consistently. Maybe he's figured something out. But, absent that I think he's likely just done for the Sox, if not overall.
This is who we have on the 26 man now:
Brayan Bello
Kutter Crawford
James Paxton
Kenley Jansen
Chris Martin
Nick Pivetta
Josh Winckowski
Richard Bleier
Joely Rodríguez
Brennan Bernardino
Chris Murphy
Brandon Walter
Joe Jacques
Schreiber, Kluber, Whitlock, Sale, and Houck are due back, probably in that order. The most fungible bullpen pieces (i.e., who have options as far as I know) are Winckowski, Bernardino, Murphy, Walter, and Jacques. Jacques will likely go for Schreiber. But unless someone else implodes or Kluber finds the fountain of competence, we hit a roadbump - do we really want Kluber over Walter? Maybe? Then if Whitlock returns, do we really want Kluber over Murphy? And if Sale returns, do we want Kluber over Bernardino? And if Houck returns, do we want Kluber over. . .Winckowski?
I mean, I'm not entirely sure he can outpitch Walter to begin with.
Well, he's 37 and everyone loses it at some point. I'm all for giving him a shot, but given what we've seen so far and the fact that they're in a playoff race, he'd better show something fairly quickly.
If he were theoretically available today, I'd replace him with Jacques but no one else since he can at least pitch multiple innings in blowouts. If they add something and have Schreiber back and everyone else healthy, maybe they eat his entire salary and see if any team bites. He should beat Whitlock, Sale, and Houck back, but his days are numbered regardless.