The 2018 NBA Draft

amarshal2

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I feel like a draft has never been so deep in boom/bust prospects. I like all the guys in the top 9 and feel confident that exactly 0 of them are “safe bets.” Everybody has a huge ceiling and concerning warts. Of course it’s naive to think there are ever safe bets, but if you put Fultz’s 2017 draft profile in the mix, I’d say it has by far the highest floor of the top 9 (obviously wrong but nobody predicted he’d forget how to shoot).

Who has the highest floor? Doncic or JJJ? They at least seem fairly well-rounded where you think they’ll be on the court a lot. And yet JJJ is a late climber and somebody here has Doncic going 11th or whatever.
 
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Jed Zeppelin

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This is why you don't dish out max dollars to middling players, even (or especially) when you feel that cap space burning a hole in your pocket.

I mean, moving back 1 or 2 spots in a pretty deep top of the lotto to unload Baze isn't bad in a vacuum, but then if you're taking a player from the next tier down...well, you better be right that he's a game-changing dead eye sniper.
 

BigSoxFan

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This is why you don't dish out max dollars to middling players, even (or especially) when you feel that cap space burning a hole in your pocket.

I mean, moving back 1 or 2 spots in a pretty deep top of the lotto to unload Baze isn't bad in a vacuum, but then if you're taking a player from that next tier down...
Yup. And Atlanta has cap space so getting rid of Bazemore isn’t even that big of a deal. Who do they need the cap space for?

Dallas and Doncic seems like a great fit though. If that happens, time for Danny to get on the phone with the Magic and offer Rozier/Sac 2019/#27 for #6.
 

Sam Ray Not

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If the Kangz know that Atlanta's phone will buzzing like mad with GM calls if Doncic falls to #3 (and presumably calm otherwise), doesn't that kinda tell them they should go ahead and pick Doncic at #2?
 

BigMike

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For the Bagley fans, how do you see him fitting in the NBA position wise? He was a bad defender in college and couldn't really block much. Ayton was a poor defender as well, but at least you see the body and can project the shot blocking eventually coming around... His shot doesn't look good so I don't really see him playing the 4 or knocking down a lot of threes despite the tiny sample size of success he had at Duke.
I tend to think he'll be fine as a pf. I get the comments on his defense, but how many elite offensive players are great defenders in college.

And Tatum had many of the same questions last year, barely played defense in college,.

I saw both play a lot of ACC games and Bagley was a much better player at that level. Maybe being 2 inches taller than Tatum will mean he is going to fail in the NBA but I'm not buying it
 

ehaz

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I tend to think he'll be fine as a pf. I get the comments on his defense, but how many elite offensive players are great defenders in college.

And Tatum had many of the same questions last year, barely played defense in college,.

I saw both play a lot of ACC games and Bagley was a much better player at that level. Maybe being 2 inches taller than Tatum will mean he is going to fail in the NBA but I'm not buying it
You could see the shot with Tatum though. The mechanics were there, FT%, etc. I guess I'm just wary of his 20/11 production as a result of his insane athleticism and not so much serious skill, kinda the opposite of pre-draft Tatum perceptions.
 

BigMike

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This is why you don't dish out max dollars to middling players, even (or especially) when you feel that cap space burning a hole in your pocket.

I mean, moving back 1 or 2 spots in a pretty deep top of the lotto to unload Baze isn't bad in a vacuum, but then if you're taking a player from the next tier down...well, you better be right that he's a game-changing dead eye sniper.
I don't think Atlanta is trading down to free the cap space. I think the GM legitimately wants Young, and just doesn't feel he can sell it to his bosses and fans at #3. I know there have been articles out there for a bit about his love for Young.

I think he is making a big mistake, but at the same time I think you have to take the guy you think is the best
 

cheech13

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If the Kangz know that Atlanta's phone will buzzing like mad with GM calls if Doncic falls to #3 (and presumably calm otherwise), doesn't that kinda tell them they should go ahead and pick Doncic at #2?
Or if you're so damn confident that Porter and Bagley are the two best talents in the draft, make the deal yourself with Dallas at #5, get your guy and pick up an asset in the process.

This is why you don't dish out max dollars to middling players, even (or especially) when you feel that cap space burning a hole in your pocket.

I mean, moving back 1 or 2 spots in a pretty deep top of the lotto to unload Baze isn't bad in a vacuum, but then if you're taking a player from the next tier down...well, you better be right that he's a game-changing dead eye sniper.
They've been connected to Trae Young throughout the draft process. It may be less about Bazemore and more about getting the guy they want and freeing up some money in the process.
 

djbayko

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I don't think Atlanta is trading down to free the cap space. I think the GM legitimately wants Young, and just doesn't feel he can sell it to his bosses and fans at #3. I know there have been articles out there for a bit about his love for Young.

I think he is making a big mistake, but at the same time I think you have to take the guy you think is the best
It's not just about selling it at #3. It's also a waste of draft equity. If you're going to pick below your slot, you might as well get something in return.
 

BigMike

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I feel like a draft has never been so deep in boom/bust prospects. I like all the guys in the top 9 and feel confident that exactly 0 of them are “safe bets.” Everybody has a huge ceiling and concerning warts. Of course it’s naive to think there are ever safe bets, but if you put Fultz’s 2017 draft profile in the mix, I’d say it has by far the highest floor of the top 9 (obviously wrong but nobody predicted he’d forget how to shoot).

Who has the highest floor? Doncic or JJJ? They at least seem fairly well-rounded where you think they’ll be on the court a lot. And yet JJJ is a late climber and somebody here has Doncic going 11th or whatever.
Well what is the floor for Ayton? A guy who averages 15/8 and is not a great defender? Same for Bagley?

Personally I put their floor well above Doncic
 

jmm57

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Well what is the floor for Ayton? A guy who averages 15/8 and is not a great defender? Same for Bagley?

Personally I put their floor well above Doncic
I think Ayton is potentially unplayable on defense, this was Buffalo in the biggest game of his life. Awful steal and block rates. There are tools there, but I think the floor is real low.

The way the Suns “play” defense makes me think he won’t develop a ton on that end either

Patrick Ewing ceiling maybe?
 
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BigSoxFan

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Jonathan Givony‏ @DraftExpress 13m13 minutes ago
New Mock Draft update on ESPN. Michael Porter falls to 12, as concerns are mounting among teams in the lottery about his long-term outlook:

Tom Westerholm @Tom_NBA 49m49 minutes ago
Per KOC: The Celtics are not considered “serious suitors” to move into the lottery.
Porter turns 20 next week, has a back injury, and hardly played last year. I think late lottery is certainly possible. Philly will have to look long and hard at him at #10 but they may not have the appetite.
 

cheech13

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Well what is the floor for Ayton? A guy who averages 15/8 and is not a great defender? Same for Bagley?

Personally I put their floor well above Doncic
That's his median projection, not his floor. A center that lacks intensity and can't defend or shoot? The floor for that is "guy who won't get a second contract."

Luka is a going to be a ten-year player in this league even if he doesn't get any better, which he should given that he's 19 and already possess near-elite translatable skills.
 

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Porter turns 20 next week, has a back injury, and hardly played last year. I think late lottery is certainly possible. Philly will have to look long and hard at him at #10 but they may not have the appetite.
Philly likes injured guys. I think they'll take Porter if Cleveland doesn't take him. Which they may.
 

ehaz

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Does anyone know what time the draft actually begins? ESPN says 7PM EST but I imagine that there will be 45 minutes of programming and BS...
 

DJnVa

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Making this a game thread tonight—ESPN saying Lakers called about Kawhi and were rebuffed.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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I don't think Atlanta is trading down to free the cap space. I think the GM legitimately wants Young, and just doesn't feel he can sell it to his bosses and fans at #3. I know there have been articles out there for a bit about his love for Young.

I think he is making a big mistake, but at the same time I think you have to take the guy you think is the best
Or if you're so damn confident that Porter and Bagley are the two best talents in the draft, make the deal yourself with Dallas at #5, get your guy and pick up an asset in the process.

They've been connected to Trae Young throughout the draft process. It may be less about Bazemore and more about getting the guy they want and freeing up some money in the process.
Thanks! Hadn’t followed closely enough to be aware of their fixation on Trae. Definitely agree with the mindset of “getting your guy.” Less so with it being this particular guy.
 

JCizzle

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I was listening to yesterday's PMT and Russilo's best guess for something crazy happening was 'a team outside the lottery trading up for Doncic'.
 

snowmanny

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I think Ayton is potentially unplayable on defense, this was Buffalo in the biggest game of his life. Awful steal and block rates. There are tools there, but I think the floor is real low.


Patrick Ewing ceiling maybe?
That's a high ceiling. What was Patrick Ewing's ceiling?
 

Sprowl

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That's a high ceiling. What was Patrick Ewing's ceiling?
Way back when Ewing was at Cambridge Rindge and Latin I remember people saying that he had Bill Russell potential on defense (he didn't -- he's larger, slower and stiffer than Russ), but had small hands and was something of a klutz on offense. Nobody had much to say about his turnaround jumper, which became a deadly shot.
 

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Way back when Ewing was at Cambridge Rindge and Latin I remember people saying that he had Bill Russell potential on defense (he didn't -- he's larger, slower and stiffer than Russ), but had small hands and was something of a klutz on offense. Nobody had much to say about his turnaround jumper, which became a deadly shot.
 

soxin6

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Making this a game thread tonight—ESPN saying Lakers called about Kawhi and were rebuffed.
That isn't really surprising. The Lakers don't have that much to offer and the Spurs likely don't feel like being the next team to assist the Lakers in building a champion. How many times have we had to hear about the Kobe trade over the years?
 

BigMike

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View attachment 21611

Way back when Ewing was at Cambridge Rindge and Latin I remember people saying that he had Bill Russell potential on defense (he didn't -- he's larger, slower and stiffer than Russ), but had small hands and was something of a klutz on offense. Nobody had much to say about his turnaround jumper, which became a deadly shot.
I remember Being 12 and seeing Patrick around town, he was 16 barely spoke the language and larger than life like a god. Different era but Georgetown for 4 years was so good for him. Now he'd be gone after Frosh year, and that would have been a bad thing for Patrick
 

cheech13

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Marc Stein‏ @TheSteinLine 1m1 minute ago
The Hawks and Mavericks are still talking, according to league sources, but Dallas is unwilling to trade No. 5 and Wes Matthews for No. 3 and Kent Bazemore. Such a move is essentially paying $19.3 million to move up two spots in tonight's draft
That's a lot of money, but Dallas should do it. The Dirk era is over and everyone seems to realize that but them. Take a stab at an elite prospect, use your cap space on an emerging talent like Julius Randle and start a rebuild in earnest with Doncic/Smith/Randle as your core.
 

BigMike

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I drop Trae Young 5 spots for that outfit. There have been some interesting fancy suits over the years, but man that Young suit is ugly as shit, AND it is incredibly poorly tailored, doesn't fall well at all
 

BigMike

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That's a lot of money, but Dallas should do it. The Dirk era is over and everyone seems to realize that but them. Take a stab at an elite prospect, use your cap space on an emerging talent like Julius Randle and start a rebuild in earnest with Doncic/Smith/Randle as your core.
Yeah 30 million of Cuban's money. Would seem silly to say no.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I think Ayton is potentially unplayable on defense, this was Buffalo in the biggest game of his life. Awful steal and block rates. There are tools there, but I think the floor is real low.

The way the Suns “play” defense makes me think he won’t develop a ton on that end either

Patrick Ewing ceiling maybe?
I have Ayton concerns as to how he defends the perimeter too as well as the times he gets lost in a game on that end......but picking one game when nobody on that Arizona team showed up in taking Buffalo lightly isn't really a good way to evaluate what a player will be in 5 years.
 

Lazy vs Crazy

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The Ringer draft show. Probably more interesting than watching on ESPN, but you won't get actual video from the arena.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I haven't really followed this guy's development, but didn't he have a reputation as a defensive stud?

WCS has done alright considering the obstacles he's face with being a complementary defensive player being thrust into the lineup without any frontcourt help and a dysfunctional situation. Unlike Hield over there, WCS has the skillset to take his game to another level......maybe he works well with Bagley or maybe he really needs to get to a real basketball organization with veteran talent around him. Time will tell.

Do you really think the Kings are the team to unlock anything on anyone?
This is kinds what I mean.
 

jmm57

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I have Ayton concerns as to how he defends the perimeter too as well as the times he gets lost in a game on that end......but picking one game when nobody on that Arizona team showed up in taking Buffalo lightly isn't really a good way to evaluate what a player will be in 5 years.
I think it’s fair game when talking floor. I don’t think that’s his most likely projection, but the floor on his defense is really low.