The 2014 Offseason Thread

[RedOctober3829]

I hear what you are saying, but I dont think their cap situation affords them the luxury of having that cap number next year for someone who has a high likelihood of being a two down run stuffer that plays 60% of snaps or w/e going forward.   ITs probably rational for Vince to take a restructure.  He likes it here and he's owed $7.7MM in cash this year including workout money (OverTheCap).  He's not going to get that on the open market.  So I expect a compromise to be worked out and Wilfork to be part of the '14 team, but if he doesn't restructure I firmly believe he's a goner. 

I think you and I are in agreement in terms of him needing to restructure.  He's always been known as a team-first guy so I think he'll understand the reasons why.  If he refuses, then that's another story and then I believe they'd cut him if the relationship soured.  But, there's a lot of respect for Vince throughout the organization so I find it hard to believe they can't work something out.

 

[( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)]

I don't get the sentiment that the DT/DE position is deep/well stocked on this team.  At the end of this season all teams had to do was double (or double and chip) on Chandler Jones, there was no one else in the Pats DT/DE stable how was a consistent threat to win 1 on 1 match ups.  Guys had their moments for sure and that's to their credit, but I think most offenses in this league considered it an advantage that they had to worry about Jones and only Jones and could trust their other guys to win their match ups much more often then not.  This team had to bring Andre Carter out of retirement to try to booster the pass rush.
 
I'm not saying the Pats have to become Seattle with a boatload of plus pass rushers, but they need to have at least one other body that is at least a threat to win one-on-one battles.  Maybe that's Wilfork coming back, but there is enough reasonable doubt there for me to think a DT/DE that can be a threat is a priority on is this team.  The ability to even occasionally get pressure with just four guys may have drastically changed that AFC Championship game. 
 
I also would feel much more comfortable about the team not having Talib back there next season, if they could generate more pressure without having to rush 5 or 6 guys.  A corner back trio of Dennard, Ryan and Arrington does not scare me as much if the QB does not have a consistent clean pocket to throw from.
 
(if you want to argue that a healthy Mayo, allows them to use Hightower and Collins as rushers more often, then I guess that is a sound argument, but you would still most likely need to bring 5 instead of 4 to actually effect the QB)

 

[southshoresoxfan]

Draft Eberon or Fiedorowicz, sign nicks and manny sanders, upgrade the worst C in football to anyone else, and stay reasonably healthy.
 
Re-structure Vince and the $ they are getting back from #81 they should have some wiggle room.  Load up now.
 
Leaves a potential offensive package in a no-huddle situation of Nicks Sanders Amendola Gronk and Vereen. 
 
I'd save the $ on Edelman, nice player, product of the system tho.  He's going to get paid by some dumb team.

 

[jsinger121]

I don't get the sentiment that the DT/DE position is deep/well stocked on this team.  At the end of this season all teams had to do was double (or double and chip) on Chandler Jones, there was no one else in the Pats DT/DE stable how was a consistent threat to win 1 on 1 match ups.  Guys had their moments for sure and that's to their credit, but I think most offenses in this league considered it an advantage that they had to worry about Jones and only Jones and could trust their other guys to win their match ups much more often then not.  This team had to bring Andre Carter out of retirement to try to booster the pass rush.
 
I'm not saying the Pats have to become Seattle with a boatload of plus pass rushers, but they need to have at least one other body that is at least a threat to win one-on-one battles.  Maybe that's Wilfork coming back, but there is enough reasonable doubt there for me to think a DT/DE that can be a threat is a priority on is this team.  The ability to even occasionally get pressure with just four guys may have drastically changed that AFC Championship game. 
 
I also would feel much more comfortable about the team not having Talib back there next season, if they could generate more pressure without having to rush 5 or 6 guys.  A corner back trio of Dennard, Ryan and Arrington does not scare me as much if the QB does not have a consistent clean pocket to throw from.
 
(if you want to argue that a healthy Mayo, allows them to use Hightower and Collins as rushers more often, then I guess that is a sound argument, but you would still most likely need to bring 5 instead of 4 to actually effect the QB)

 
I agree with this. The line kind of stinks outside of Chandler Jones and Wilfork when healthy. They need more talent up front to win the battle of the trenches. 

 

[Stitch01]

Draft Eberon or Fiedorowicz, sign nicks and manny sanders, upgrade the worst C in football to anyone else, and stay reasonably healthy.
 
Re-structure Vince and the $ they are getting back from #81 they should have some wiggle room.  Load up now.
 
Leaves a potential offensive package in a no-huddle situation of Nicks Sanders Amendola Gronk and Vereen. 
 
I'd save the $ on Edelman, nice player, product of the system tho.  He's going to get paid by some dumb team. 

#81 is a $7.5MM hit on next years cap.
 
Thumbs down to signing two fairly big name unrestricted WR's while letting Edelman go.

 

[southshoresoxfan]

#81 is a $7.5MM hit on next years cap.
 
Thumbs down to signing two fairly big name unrestricted WR's while letting Edelman go.

 
Wasn't there some story that they are re-couping money off that? Admittedly didn't read it and I'm on my phone so its a bitch to search/link.
 
Sanders won't command a big deal and i bet Nicks would come on a 1 year deal after the shitty season he had on a prove me deal.  Maybe im crazy and some other dumb team will pay him.  I just think a Browns/Rams type team will look at 107 catches from Edelman and offer him Welker money (AAV wise). I'm all set there.  If we can get him on a Lloyd contract then replace the Nicks name with Edelman. 

 

[Stitch01]

They're in a battle over some of the unpaid money, but that $7.5MM is going to be on the cap next year.  My understanding is that number will only go up if they lose their case.
 
Im not giving Edelman a blank check, but if we let him go Im not adding two big name wideouts.  Amendola/Dobson/Thompkins/Boyce already under contract, I dont want to hand out two more deals with guaranteed money to vets.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

One big factor with a lot of these cap discussions is what the team expects overall market conditions to look like this offseason. The FA market last year was strikingly depressed but its unclear whether that was a function of new thinking about the new CBA, particularities related to tighter cap situations of many teams at the same time, or what.

For example, we save $3M by cutting Connolly, who for me at this point is a pretty mediocre starting player. Whether to cut him or not depends very highly on what we think mid-tier free agent guards like Geoff Schwartz or Jon Asamoah are likely to get. If I can sign one of those guys - Asamoah is likely the better fit from as scheme perspective - for 3/12 with like 4-5 guaranteed in this new climate then I don't think twice about cutting Connolly.

Overall, I'd like to see the team try to exploit potential free agent bargains a bit more, not just by taking flyers on old guys who might have one year left in the tank (A Wilson, Kelly) but by looking more closely at the mid-level market at positions like OG, TE, and DE.

 

[Three10toLeft]

They're in a battle over some of the unpaid money, but that $7.5MM is going to be on the cap next year.  My understanding is that number will only go up if they lose their case.
 
Im not giving Edelman a blank check, but if we let him go Im not adding two big name wideouts.  Amendola/Dobson/Thompkins/Boyce already under contract, I dont want to hand out two more deals with guaranteed money to vets.

 
Brady shouldn't report to camp if we let Edelman go and go in to the season with Amendola/Thompkins/Dobson/Boyce as his top options.
 
And no one should blame him.

 

[lexrageorge]

They're in a battle over some of the unpaid money, but that $7.5MM is going to be on the cap next year.  My understanding is that number will only go up if they lose their case.
 
Im not giving Edelman a blank check, but if we let him go Im not adding two big name wideouts.  Amendola/Dobson/Thompkins/Boyce already under contract, I dont want to hand out two more deals with guaranteed money to vets.

I don't think that's correct.  The $7.5M is on the cap unless they win their case.  

 

[Stitch01]

My understanding is they are on the hook for the $7.5M unless they actually recoup the cash paid from Hernandez from the past bonuses.  Actually getting money sent from Aaron Hernandez to the Patriots seems like a legal nightmare that is unlikely to be resolved before the 2014 season.
 
The current grievances have to do with money they refuse to pay.  This suggests the Pats could be on the hook for an additional $1.8MM if they lose.
 
http://www.patspulpit.com/2014/1/16/5315914/patriots-possibly-recoup-hernandez-signing-bonus
 
If anyone has documentation Im wrong, please post, I hope I am.
 
EDIT: I did read someone suggest that if Hernandez is implicated in the murder committed before the contract extension was signed that it gave the Pats better grounds for recouping the whole signing bonus, but I think they might have to actually get the money back to get the cap credit.  Lots of luck with that.

 

[Phragle]

Good post MMS.
 

One big factor with a lot of these cap discussions is what the team expects overall market conditions to look like this offseason. The FA market last year was strikingly depressed but its unclear whether that was a function of new thinking about the new CBA, particularities related to tighter cap situations of many teams at the same time, or what.

 
A year later and I still don't understand it.
 

For example, we save $3M by cutting Connolly, who for me at this point is a pretty mediocre starting player. Whether to cut him or not depends very highly on what we think mid-tier free agent guards like Geoff Schwartz or Jon Asamoah are likely to get. If I can sign one of those guys - Asamoah is likely the better fit from as scheme perspective - for 3/12 with like 4-5 guaranteed in this new climate then I don't think twice about cutting Connolly.

 
To me Connolly is a premium back-up at guard and center. That's the role I'd like to to play in 2014. 3/12 is a bargain for Asamoah. I think he's better than that.
 
I really like what we saw from Cannon this year. He doesn't fit the prototype but I'd love to see him at guard. If he can play that well at tackle he should be able to play at least that well at guard after he get's a little experience.
 
Wendell was a pass blocking disaster again this year. Brady can't be forced to deal with that. It's not fair to anyone. My bottom bitch this offseason is Alex Mack. He would change the entire offense for the better. He's be a young, reliable, anchor to build around. He won't be cheap, but I think you get what you pay for with him. Vollmer-Cannon-Mack-Mankins-Solder would be unstoppable. I wouldn't be upset if it was Vollmer-Asamoah-Connolly-Mankins-Solder though.
 

Overall, I'd like to see the team try to exploit potential free agent bargains a bit more, not just by taking flyers on old guys who might have one year left in the tank (A Wilson, Kelly) but by looking more closely at the mid-level market at positions like OG, TE, and DE.

 
I couldn't agree more. I wanted that to happen last year too. I think there's going to be a lot of value out there again. After a quick scan I found a bunch of players I'd like them to kick the tires on. 
 
 
TE: Jeff Cumberland (27)
TE: Scott Chandler (29)
WR: Riley Cooper (26)
WR: Jeremy Maclin (26)
WR: Tiquan Underwood (27)
G: Jon Asamoah (26)
S: Charles Woodson (37)
LB: Desmond Bishop (30)
LB: Daryl Smith (32)
DE: Justin Tuck (31)
DE: Jason Worilds (26)
DE: Jared Allen (32)
DT: Jason Hatcher (32)
DT: Arthur Jones (28)
DT: Henry Melton (27)
 

I agree with this. The line kind of stinks outside of Chandler Jones and Wilfork when healthy. They need more talent up front to win the battle of the trenches.

 
I think the big guy I'm most confident in right now is Siliga.

 

[Stitch01]

 
Brady shouldn't report to camp if we let Edelman go and go in to the season with Amendola/Thompkins/Dobson/Boyce as his top options.
 
And no one should blame him.

 
Do you think he'd be happier if we let Talib go, ran Mulligan and Hooman out at TE again, didnt upgrade the OLine, and used the cap space on Kenny Britt and Hakeem Nicks? 
 
Who is out there in free agency that you think is very likely to outperform Dobson next year?  Is there a limit on what you pay Edelman?
 
I dont think Amendola/Thompkins/Dobson/Boyce is my ideal grouping going into next season, but going into the season with that and spending money elsewhere seems like a potentially reasonable decision depending on how the market shakes up?

 

[southshoresoxfan]

I think Manny Sanders would be a real nice fit. Is Pitt still in cap hell? He's the kind of WR that would succeed in NE's system.
 
Nicks is more pipe-dreamish that the market sucks for him and we can get a big guy outside the numbers, which while overrated, would certainly help offset the inevitable gronk injury

 

[southshoresoxfan]

Aaron Colvin, CB from Oklahoma tore his ACL today.  I'd spend a 7th on him in a heartbeat as an IR pick if he lasts

 

[Stitch01]

I think Manny Sanders would be a real nice fit. Is Pitt still in cap hell? He's the kind of WR that would succeed in NE's system.
 
Nicks is more pipe-dreamish that the market sucks for him and we can get a big guy outside the numbers, which while overrated, would certainly help offset the inevitable gronk injury

My original post said there was room for one more guy and he might be a nice fit.  Depends on price and Id rather bring Edelman back at similar dollars. 

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

I really like what we saw from Cannon this year. He doesn't fit the prototype but I'd love to see him at guard. If he can play that well at tackle he should be able to play at least that well at guard after he get's a little experience.
 
Wendell was a pass blocking disaster again this year. Brady can't be forced to deal with that. It's not fair to anyone. My bottom bitch this offseason is Alex Mack. He would change the entire offense for the better. He's be a young, reliable, anchor to build around. He won't be cheap, but I think you get what you pay for with him. Vollmer-Cannon-Mack-Mankins-Solder would be unstoppable. I wouldn't be upset if it was Vollmer-Asamoah-Connolly-Mankins-Solder though.

Agree with you on both Cannon, who I definitely want over Connolly at G if that's the choice, and Mack. If we could get Mack for the type of contract that Chris Myers or Eric Wood signed them I'm all over that.

Of the players you listed, I like Arthur Jones a lot as a rotational DE/DT. I also think Tuck has something left in the tank and given the depressed market last year for veteran pass rushers, could come relatively cheap.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

My understanding is they are on the hook for the $7.5M unless they actually recoup the cash paid from Hernandez from the past bonuses.  Actually getting money sent from Aaron Hernandez to the Patriots seems like a legal nightmare that is unlikely to be resolved before the 2014 season.
 
The current grievances have to do with money they refuse to pay.  This suggests the Pats could be on the hook for an additional $1.8MM if they lose.
 
http://www.patspulpit.com/2014/1/16/5315914/patriots-possibly-recoup-hernandez-signing-bonus
 
If anyone has documentation Im wrong, please post, I hope I am.
 
EDIT: I did read someone suggest that if Hernandez is implicated in the murder committed before the contract extension was signed that it gave the Pats better grounds for recouping the whole signing bonus, but I think they might have to actually get the money back to get the cap credit.  Lots of luck with that.

What I don't understand is how the part of the signing bonus (a substantial $3.25M) that is to be paid this March factors into the equation. If we don't have to pay that (which is seems possible), then would that be taken away from the $7.5M cap hit for 2014 (which seems logical)?

 

[Stitch01]

Chandler might not be a bad TE either.  At least gives some semblance of a pass catching threat.

 

[Stitch01]

What I don't understand is how the part of the signing bonus (a substantial $3.25M) that is to be paid this March factors into the equation. If we don't have to pay that (which is seems possible), then would that be taken away from the $7.5M cap hit for 2014 (which seems logical)?

 
It seems like the near unanimous consensus based on the Lloyd case is that the Patriots do not have grounds to not pay that $3.25MM since its a deferred signing bonus and there were no failure to perform clauses.  The results of Mike Vick's arbitration with the Falcons make me think that's probably correct unless there were changes in the new CBA.
 
New stories this week say that if he gets charged with the double murder, then he may have violated a clause related to being available to perform since he signed the contract after committing a murder which could keep him incarcerated and unable to perform.  This might have been what southshoresoxfan read earlier this week, I hadnt seen it prior to today.  If he's indicted there, they could avoid paying the $3.25MM and go after the whole signing bonus (but good luck recovering the rest). Union would clearly fight it, so unclear when/if that cap space could be recovered, but if the team won they would get that $3.25MM back. 

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

It seems like the near unanimous consensus based on the Lloyd case is that the Patriots do not have grounds to not pay that $3.25MM since its a deferred signing bonus and there were no failure to perform clauses.  The results of Mike Vick's arbitration with the Falcons make me think that's probably correct unless there were changes in the new CBA.
 
New stories this week say that if he gets charged with the double murder, then he may have violated a clause related to being available to perform since he signed the contract after committing a murder which could keep him incarcerated and unable to perform.  This might have been what southshoresoxfan read earlier this week, I hadnt seen it prior to today.  If he's indicted there, they could avoid paying the $3.25MM and go after the whole signing bonus (but good luck recovering the rest). Union would clearly fight it, so unclear when/if that cap space could be recovered, but if the team won they would get that $3.25MM back.

Thanks, that makes a lot of sense.

I can't wait for a grassroots movement to build demanding that the DA charge Hernandez with the double before March so that the team can win back $3M in cap space. That would be a great moment for American sports culture.

 

[Super Nomario]

I don't get the sentiment that the DT/DE position is deep/well stocked on this team.  At the end of this season all teams had to do was double (or double and chip) on Chandler Jones, there was no one else in the Pats DT/DE stable how was a consistent threat to win 1 on 1 match ups.  Guys had their moments for sure and that's to their credit, but I think most offenses in this league considered it an advantage that they had to worry about Jones and only Jones and could trust their other guys to win their match ups much more often then not.  This team had to bring Andre Carter out of retirement to try to booster the pass rush.

Yeah, we need another edge rusher. DE was the only spot on D we had perfect health this season, which is good because the depth was garbage.
 

Overall, I'd like to see the team try to exploit potential free agent bargains a bit more, not just by taking flyers on old guys who might have one year left in the tank (A Wilson, Kelly) but by looking more closely at the mid-level market at positions like OG, TE, and DE.

The bargain vets have been a disaster in the past couple years: Donald Jones, Jonathan Fanene, Daniel Fells, Jake Ballard, Robert Gallery, Tyronne Green, Wilson, Kelly, Marcus Benard, Leon Washington, Tebow, Mike Jenkins, ... yikes. Basically, Donald Thomas, Steve Gregory, and Brandon Lloyd are the only "success" stories, and those are somewhat dubious. The busted draft picks get a lot more attention, but I'd say the recent track record in free agency is much worse.
 

To me Connolly is a premium back-up at guard and center. That's the role I'd like to to play in 2014. 3/12 is a bargain for Asamoah. I think he's better than that.

That's an ideal football fit, but I can't see paying a backup G/C $4 MM (Connolly's hit for 2014).
 

I can't wait for a grassroots movement to build demanding that the DA charge Hernandez with the double before March so that the team can win back $3M in cap space. That would be a great moment for American sports culture.

The cap rollover under the new CBA means the Pats will get some cap space whenever this does get settled, which might not be for a while. They're definitely not paying the bonus to Hernandez unless they're absolutely made to, but cap relief might take a while to materialize.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

The bargain vets have been a disaster in the past couple years: Donald Jones, Jonathan Fanene, Daniel Fells, Jake Ballard, Robert Gallery, Tyronne Green, Wilson, Kelly, Marcus Benard, Leon Washington, Tebow, Mike Jenkins, ... yikes. Basically, Donald Thomas, Steve Gregory, and Brandon Lloyd are the only "success" stories, and those are somewhat dubious. The busted draft picks get a lot more attention, but I'd say the recent track record in free agency is much worse.

That's a truly awful list. But I would characterize almost all of these guys as bargain-basement flyers. I'm more interested in mid-range players that are more expensive but generally younger and more clearly project as starters/contributors.

 

[Stitch01]

Id say Fanene, Fells, Wilson, and Kelly cost real dollars.  Could argue Washington as well given what Woodhead signed for.  Does seem like skewing a little younger might be a better way to go.

 

[southshoresoxfan]

I'd argue with the influx of young talent plus a full arsenal of picks id rather eschew the bargain basement bullshit this year and add some upper-tier talent. We'll see how long BB builds with an eye on this year and 3 years from now with Brady nearing the end.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Id say Fanene, Fells, Wilson, and Kelly cost real dollars.  Could argue Washington as well given what Woodhead signed for.  Does seem like skewing a little younger might be a better way to go.

Fells and Wilson got 3/5, Kelly 2/5, all deals that were effectively one year and then a tiny bit of pain to cut them afterward. Fanene is a little closer to the kinds of deals I'm thinking about.

A good example is the deal the Eagles gave Connor Barwin last year - 6/36 on its face, but actually more like a guaranteed 2/6 with $2M in dead money if they want to cut him after two years. Or, on the more expensive side, the deal that the Broncos gave Louis Vasquez, which is basically a two year deal at $10.5M and then $2M more to cut him.

 

[Phragle]

Who is out there in free agency that you think is very likely to outperform Dobson next year?

 
Maybe Boldin? I wouldn't mind having a guy like that to set an example for the young guys.
 

Agree with you on both Cannon, who I definitely want over Connolly at G if that's the choice, and Mack. If we could get Mack for the type of contract that Chris Myers or Eric Wood signed them I'm all over that.

Of the players you listed, I like Arthur Jones a lot as a rotational DE/DT. I also think Tuck has something left in the tank and given the depressed market last year for veteran pass rushers, could come relatively cheap.

 
I think that could be too light for Mack. Here are the top center contracts http://overthecap.com/top-player-salaries.php?Position=C, but I'm not sure how many of them are from the UFA market. I think a contract a little smaller than Kalil's is about right for the highest bidder. 
 

Chandler might not be a bad TE either.  At least gives some semblance of a pass catching threat.

 
I really want Tony Gonzalez but he'll have to get cut first. I thought he was a FA but he has another year left.
 

That's an ideal football fit, but I can't see paying a backup G/C $4 MM (Connolly's hit for 2014).

 
For sure not. I have him taking a 1.5 MM pay cut and either starting at center or backing up at guard and center.
 

I would characterize almost all of these guys as bargain-basement flyers. I'm more interested in mid-range players that are more expensive but generally younger and more clearly project as starters/contributors.

 
Same here. I think we're talking about good players that last offseason settled for very small contracts. Talib was one of them. Daryl Smith played for under a million. Why not sign players like that?

 

[DaughtersofDougMirabelli]

I really want Tony Gonzalez but he'll have to get cut first. I thought he was a FA but he has another year left.

 
Unless he pulls a Brett Favre, Tony G is retiring. 

 

[southshoresoxfan]

 
Unless he pulls a Brett Favre, Tony G is retiring. 

 
Maybe he'll graduate ala Junior Seau

 

[DaughtersofDougMirabelli]

Well he's already playing one more game than he was expecting.
 
https://twitter.com/TonyGonzalez88/status/425786842437255168
 

 

[southshoresoxfan]

Hopefully BB is in Hawaii, ah, vacationing.

 

[brandonchristensen]

My football salary knowledge is crap compared to baseball so all of the cap space is kind of lost on me.

Question, how do we still owe money to Ahern after he is put in jail? Is there nothing contractual about that scenario? I feel like when that happens your earnings would be forfeited. But I don't know.

It just boggles my mind that a player who is in jail can hamstring a team. That's like something you'd see from the MLBPA.

 

[ivanvamp]

The interesting thing is that ARod's suspension is likely to free up, what, 25-30 million dollars for the Yankees for 2014, but Aaron Hernandez *GOING TO PRISON FOR THE REST OF HIS LIFE* (or however long his sentence eventually is) isn't going to free up one red cent for the Patriots.  

 

[lexrageorge]

My football salary knowledge is crap compared to baseball so all of the cap space is kind of lost on me.

Question, how do we still owe money to Ahern after he is put in jail? Is there nothing contractual about that scenario? I feel like when that happens your earnings would be forfeited. But I don't know.

It just boggles my mind that a player who is in jail can hamstring a team. That's like something you'd see from the MLBPA.

I think that while contracts do usually contain clauses for "moral turpitude", the fact remains that Hernandez has only been accused, not convicted.  They may be able to get away with a recovery if he is indeed convicted, but a conviction will take some time.  
 
I still say they have a good case on the deferred but unpaid signing bonus (the NFLPA disagrees, obviously), but I'm not sure that affects the $7.5M cap hit in 2014, as that is money that has already been paid out (it's been hard to find accurate info on this, however).  

 

[PedroKsBambino]

 
It seems like the near unanimous consensus based on the Lloyd case is that the Patriots do not have grounds to not pay that $3.25MM since its a deferred signing bonus and there were no failure to perform clauses.  The results of Mike Vick's arbitration with the Falcons make me think that's probably correct unless there were changes in the new CBA.
 
New stories this week say that if he gets charged with the double murder, then he may have violated a clause related to being available to perform since he signed the contract after committing a murder which could keep him incarcerated and unable to perform.  This might have been what southshoresoxfan read earlier this week, I hadnt seen it prior to today.  If he's indicted there, they could avoid paying the $3.25MM and go after the whole signing bonus (but good luck recovering the rest). Union would clearly fight it, so unclear when/if that cap space could be recovered, but if the team won they would get that $3.25MM back. 

 
The thing that points out is that not cutting him may have been better cap-wise, right?  If he's on the roster and arrested then there clearly is a failure to perform on his part.   Has anyone seen analysis of this?
 
Mind you, in a completely unique situation I can't criticize the team for decisive action but it is interesting if the CBA penalizes it, too.

 

[lexrageorge]

 
The thing that points out is that not cutting him may have been better cap-wise, right?  If he's on the roster and arrested then there clearly is a failure to perform on his part.   Has anyone seen analysis of this?
 
Mind you, in a completely unique situation I can't criticize the team for decisive action but it is interesting if the CBA penalizes it, too.

I seem to recall an article at the time saying that the Pats could have suspended him instead of cutting him loose.  The article indicated that in the case of a suspension, they would have had a better case of withholding the unpaid bonus if AH was eventually found guilty.  At least that is what was speculated in that article.  
 
Now, according the following link, AH had a $12.5M signing bonus, of which $7.5M will count towards the 2014 cap (the remaining $5M was earned in 2012 and 2013).  My understanding is that the Pats still owe Hernandez $3.25M of that $7.5M in March, and it is that $3.25M that the Pats are fighting to withhold.  
 
There is also a grievance regarding the fact that AH had guaranteed salary and roster bonus of $2.66M in 2013 and 2014, which the Pats are also attempting to withhold.  So, I guess the best case is that the Pats would end up with a 2014 cap charge of $3.75M, but could also end up with a cap charge of $10M+ if the AH wins the grievances.  For now, it seems everyone is assuming the $7.5M, which is probably the most likely outcome.
 
http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2013/06/28/patriots-had-inside-knowledge-murder-charge-before-cutting-aaron-hernandez/efZRO6DxYpy6AZd7SMH3OL/story.html

 

[Stitch01]

 
The thing that points out is that not cutting him may have been better cap-wise, right?  If he's on the roster and arrested then there clearly is a failure to perform on his part.   Has anyone seen analysis of this?
 
Mind you, in a completely unique situation I can't criticize the team for decisive action but it is interesting if the CBA penalizes it, too.

Maybe for that last $3.25MM and the guaranteed money for '13 and '14 (although I cant imagine they actually lose that grievance on the guaranteed salaries).  For the signing bonus already paid out, it wouldnt have mattered.

 

[Reardon's Beard]

Bob Kraft is going to get some space and AH money back for the 2014 season. I'd stake a lot on it - especially because of the good faith clause worked into the contract. If MA nails him for the previous murder he's toast and so's the contract and union position. Everyone is going to want this to go away. Call me overly optimistic, but that's my view.

 

[lexrageorge]

Bob Kraft is going to get some space and AH money back for the 2014 season. I'd stake a lot on it - especially because of the good faith clause worked into the contract. If MA nails him for the previous murder he's toast and so's the contract and union position. Everyone is going to want this to go away. Call me overly optimistic, but that's my view.

While I agree that the union's case is very weak when it comes to the 2013 and 2014 salaries, it does have a stronger case regarding the unpaid bonus.  Technically, that bonus was "earned" once AH signed the contract, and I don't believe the bonus was contingent on anything. 
 
The other issue is that there is no guarantee the DA nails Hernandez for the double murder in time for the Pats to have a chance to recoup any cap space; getting salary cap space back in November will help in 2015, but doesn't help the FA shopping this offseason very much. 

 

[Otis Foster]

 
 
I seem to recall an article at the time saying that the Pats could have suspended him instead of cutting him loose.  The article indicated that in the case of a suspension, they would have had a better case of withholding the unpaid bonus if AH was eventually found guilty.  At least that is what was speculated in that article. 

 
I believe someone (Kraft?) spoke to this at the time. The notion was that they'd cut ties immediately with anyone charged with murder. A suspension wouldn't serve the purpose of dissociating the team from his behavior. As a practical matter, the evidence that was publicly available at the time of his arrest was sufficient in Kraft's mind to override any presumption of evidence they would otherwise give him. 

 

[PedroKsBambino]

Maybe for that last $3.25MM and the guaranteed money for '13 and '14 (although I cant imagine they actually lose that grievance on the guaranteed salaries).  For the signing bonus already paid out, it wouldnt have mattered.

'
That was PFT's take too; you guys may be right but my read is that there's a little more uncertainty.  For example, the Vick ruling from Doty was that roster bonuses cannot be taken but signing bonuses may be, wasn't it?  Hernandez is a little different situation from Vick in that it is all signing bonus.
 
The Vick ruling turned on the fact that the roster bonus was earned by being on the roster on the relevant date; there is an argument (may not be successful, but not frivolous either and may not yet have been litigated) that the signing bonus requires the player being available to perform for the full length of the contract, which Hernandez is not going to be.   In order to make that argument, however, you'd need to first win the argument on the 2013-14 guaranteed money.
 
All that is to say that I can imagine a little help here, but that it would be down the road and not for the 2014 cap

 

[Super Nomario]

While I agree that the union's case is very weak when it comes to the 2013 and 2014 salaries, it does have a stronger case regarding the unpaid bonus.  Technically, that bonus was "earned" once AH signed the contract, and I don't believe the bonus was contingent on anything. 

The bonus was contingent on Hernandez believing in good faith that he would be available to fulfill the terms of the contract. He lied when he represented himself as available, because he'd just committed a murder.
 
Aside: I should be using the word "allegedly" a bunch above, but I assume he did everything he's accused for. Hell, he was probably the Boston Strangler.
 

The other issue is that there is no guarantee the DA nails Hernandez for the double murder in time for the Pats to have a chance to recoup any cap space; getting salary cap space back in November will help in 2015, but doesn't help the FA shopping this offseason very much.

I think this is probably the reality.

 

[wutang112878]

Dimitroff has hired Pioli as his assistant GM, how the student has become the master.

 

[Stitch01]

 
That was PFT's take too; I do think there's a little more uncertainty.  For example, the Vick ruling from Doty was that roster bonuses cannot be taken but signing bonuses may be, wasn't it?  Hernandez is a little different situation in that it is all signing bonus.

Yes, I mean whether he was cut or suspended wouldnt have mattered in trying to reclaim the part of the signing bonus they already paid.  Possible they can go after it when all is said and done, but zero chance of getting it off the '14 cap. 

 

[Super Nomario]

Overthecap has the Pats with about $8 MM in cap space for 2014. Beyond that, we can get cap money by:
Restructure Wilfork (Cap: $11.6, Dead: $3.6 MM) - maybe another $4 MM?
Cut / restructure Gosktowski (Cap: $3.8MM, Dead: $0.8 MM) - maybe another $1 MM?
Cut Connolly (Cap: ~$4MM, Dead: ~$1MM) - $3 MM
Cut Kelly (Cap: $3 MM, Dead: $0.5 MM) - $2.5 MM
Cut Sopoaga (Cap: $3.5 MM, Dead: $1 MM) - $2.5 MM
Cut A.Wilson (Cap: $1.83 MM, Dead: $0.67 MM) - $1.17 MM
 
That gets us to about $22 MM. We still need to:
Re-sign Talib (or sign equivalent): $6-7 MM?
Re-sign Edelman (or equiv): ~$4MM?
Re-sign Blount (or equiv): ~$3 MM?
Re-sign Wendell (or equiv): ~$2.5 MM?
That's $16.5 of the $22.
 
Does this seem about right to folks?

 

[lexrageorge]

The bonus was contingent on Hernandez believing in good faith that he would be available to fulfill the terms of the contract. He lied when he represented himself as available, because he'd just committed a murder.
 
Aside: I should be using the word "allegedly" a bunch above, but I assume he did everything he's accused for. Hell, he was probably the Boston Strangler.
 

He signed the contract before he "allegedly" killed Lloyd.  Unless he was already planning to do it the summer of 2012 (which seems impossible to prove), I'm not sure the argument can be made that he never intended to fulfill the terms of the contract. 
 
The other murders are a different story, but there's as yet to be any charges. 

 

[Shelterdog]

I think it's important to include the caveat that all-or essentially all-of the reported discussion about Hernandez's contract is written by a bunch of sports reporters who are getting information piecemeal and probably from agents. For example Rapoport made a big deal out of the fact that Hernandez's contract doesn't have a "failure to practice" clause.  Well, if you fail to practice because you're freaking arrested the CBA's forfeiture provision applies so the clause might not matter at all, but that's what you get when your only news source is a 28 year old reporter who sure as hell isn't getting the Pats' legal strategy from Kraft/BB/Ropes & Gray.

 

[Stitch01]

Overthecap has the Pats with about $8 MM in cap space for 2014. Beyond that, we can get cap money by:
Restructure Wilfork (Cap: $11.6, Dead: $3.6 MM) - maybe another $4 MM?
Cut / restructure Gosktowski (Cap: $3.8MM, Dead: $0.8 MM) - maybe another $1 MM?
Cut Connolly (Cap: ~$4MM, Dead: ~$1MM) - $3 MM
Cut Kelly (Cap: $3 MM, Dead: $0.5 MM) - $2.5 MM
Cut Sopoaga (Cap: $3.5 MM, Dead: $1 MM) - $2.5 MM
Cut A.Wilson (Cap: $1.83 MM, Dead: $0.67 MM) - $1.17 MM
 
That gets us to about $22 MM. We still need to:
Re-sign Talib (or sign equivalent): $6-7 MM?
Re-sign Edelman (or equiv): ~$4MM?
Re-sign Blount (or equiv): ~$3 MM?
Re-sign Wendell (or equiv): ~$2.5 MM?
That's $16.5 of the $22.
 
Does this seem about right to folks?

 Seems close.
 
Id pass on the running back portion and free up $3MM more personally if Blount is going to be a $3MM cap hit.
 
EDIT: Laying it out like that makes me question whether resigning Edelman is the right thing to do if that's his cap number.
 
Given the desire to keep at least a few million available for in season signings and/or rollover, I think it illustrates that the talent upgrades this offseason are going to be very heavily weighted towards internal development..

That extra $7.5MM (the last carryover figure) would be nice if its not included.  Could definitely get Edelman in then

 

[lexrageorge]

Overthecap has the Pats with about $8 MM in cap space for 2014. Beyond that, we can get cap money by:
Restructure Wilfork (Cap: $11.6, Dead: $3.6 MM) - maybe another $4 MM?
Cut / restructure Gosktowski (Cap: $3.8MM, Dead: $0.8 MM) - maybe another $1 MM?
Cut Connolly (Cap: ~$4MM, Dead: ~$1MM) - $3 MM
Cut Kelly (Cap: $3 MM, Dead: $0.5 MM) - $2.5 MM
Cut Sopoaga (Cap: $3.5 MM, Dead: $1 MM) - $2.5 MM
Cut A.Wilson (Cap: $1.83 MM, Dead: $0.67 MM) - $1.17 MM
 
That gets us to about $22 MM. We still need to:
Re-sign Talib (or sign equivalent): $6-7 MM?
Re-sign Edelman (or equiv): ~$4MM?
Re-sign Blount (or equiv): ~$3 MM?
Re-sign Wendell (or equiv): ~$2.5 MM?
That's $16.5 of the $22.
 
Does this seem about right to folks?

Does OvertheCap include the carryover from 2013, which I believe is about $9M?  I'm not sure it does. 
 
I guess they may be able to do something with the Mankins contract and free up another $1.5M or so, but that could be tricky.  I also wouldn't be surprised if they play a bit of hardball with Wilfork and Gostkowski to try to get some more savings (maybe another $1M total).  

 

[Shelterdog]

Overthecap has the Pats with about $8 MM in cap space for 2014. Beyond that, we can get cap money by:
Restructure Wilfork (Cap: $11.6, Dead: $3.6 MM) - maybe another $4 MM?
Cut / restructure Gosktowski (Cap: $3.8MM, Dead: $0.8 MM) - maybe another $1 MM?
Cut Connolly (Cap: ~$4MM, Dead: ~$1MM) - $3 MM
Cut Kelly (Cap: $3 MM, Dead: $0.5 MM) - $2.5 MM
Cut Sopoaga (Cap: $3.5 MM, Dead: $1 MM) - $2.5 MM
Cut A.Wilson (Cap: $1.83 MM, Dead: $0.67 MM) - $1.17 MM
 
That gets us to about $22 MM. We still need to:
Re-sign Talib (or sign equivalent): $6-7 MM?
Re-sign Edelman (or equiv): ~$4MM?
Re-sign Blount (or equiv): ~$3 MM?
Re-sign Wendell (or equiv): ~$2.5 MM?
That's $16.5 of the $22.
 
Does this seem about right to folks?

 
 
Roughly. I think you could see a bit of a surprise in that they could go with a bare bones approach at one position (let Connolly and Wendell both go to be replaced by Barker/Kline/Cannon or let Edelman go and not pay for a reasonable replacment) and use the savings at other parts of the team (pick up a Dolphins DT for real money, fore xample).   I could also see the Gregory cut/restructure although I think the team likes him a lot more than most fans do.  I'm also not sure they cut Kelly if he's healthy (he may be a restructure candidate) or spend 3 million on a running back.