The 2014 Offseason Thread

[Bongorific]

I know he has his eyes square on retirement, but I wonder if Belichick could coax one  more season out of Tony Gonzalez. Pair him with Gronk, sign Edelman, hope for improvement from Dobson and Boyce, hope for similar production from KT, give Ridley some gorilla glue, and that looks pretty good to me. That's my big, wild hope.
 
Defensively I'm at a bit of a loss. (Wilfork-Mayo should obviously represent a huge upgrade.) I don't know what to do in the defensive backfield -- but am having a hard time recognizing an option better than Talib, even though I feel like I want to find a way to bolster the unit.

A safety would help. Gregory is bad.

 

[Stitch01]

Realistically, what would the trade to send Mallett to HOU look like?

A mid round pick I'd guess.

 

[riboflav]

The Amendola-hate on this board has been embarrassing. It was obvious in week one that he was an immense talent and that he and TB were on the same page with good chemistry. Clearly, he got hurt in the Buffalo game and wasn't the same afterward. Chill.

 

[Dogman]

A mid round pick I'd guess.

 
 
Johnson only has one year left on his deal so the Pats may be able to entice BoB with an additional pick. 
 
Based on Johnson's comments earlier this year, I don't think he wants to be around for a rebuild.

 

[Three10toLeft]

What's the salary cap situation like? Are we facing some ramifications for cutting Hernandez in the form of dead money? (No pun intended)

It's shortsighted, but we really need to be in GFIN mode. Brady has two, at the very most three more years of Super Bowl championship caliber play left in him. We need to mortgage the future a bit and bring in a playmaker on either side of the ball.

I doubt it would happen, but Greg Hardy is a free agent and Carolina probably won't resign him, they're dealing with their own salary cap woes. If we paired up Hardy, with Wilfork and Jones, we could finally have an intimidating pass rush again, which could really help mask some shortcomings in the secondary.

Maclin is intriguing but definitely not a sure thing.

 

[Stitch01]

Johnson only has one year left on his deal so the Pats may be able to entice BoB with an additional pick. 
 
Based on Johnson's comments earlier this year, I don't think he wants to be around for a rebuild.

Meh, that pick would be at least one first.

 

[Stitch01]

What's the salary cap situation like? Are we facing some ramifications for cutting Hernandez in the form of dead money? (No pun intended)
It's shortsighted, but we really need to be in GFIN mode. Brady has two, at the very most three more years of Super Bowl championship caliber play left in him. We need to mortgage the future a bit and bring in a playmaker on either side of the ball.
I doubt it would happen, but Greg Hardy is a free agent and Carolina probably won't resign him, they're dealing with their own salary cap woes. If we paired up Hardy, with Wilfork and Jones, we could finally have an intimidating pass rush again, which could really help mask some shortcomings in the secondary.
Maclin is intriguing but definitely not a sure thing.

Its a little tight Hernandez costs about 8 million. So between him and Gronk, lot of money unlikely to be contributing a lot next year to start.

No we won't be in GFIN mode. It's not the way the team does business. Stars can always align, but biggest offseason moves likely will be extensions or reupping their own players

 

[Devizier]

It's too bad the NFL doesn't have Billy King running a team.

 

[ColonelMustard]

Its a little tight Hernandez costs about 8 million. So between him and Gronk, lot of money unlikely to be contributing a lot next year to start.

No we won't be in GFIN mode. It's not the way the team does business. Stars can always align, but biggest offseason moves likely will be extensions or reupping their own players

 
I'm not being reactionary but that's clearly not enough.  Hopefully Wilfork and Mayo will shore up the middle of the field but we're not sure if Wilfork can return to form and Mayo (as good as he is - and he is a sure tackler) is no Bowman or Bennett.
 
Tom Brady needs a possession receiver to out physical a corner and just make a play.  We'll see what dollar figure Edelman commands and while he's a loss, I feel that those resources are best spent elsewhere.
 
We need a shut-down corner in the line of Sherman.  Talib while not oft injured, just can't seem to be on the field at the right time. 
 
Collins needs to get stronger and faster.  Hopefullly he can step up his game.  Brian Orakpo is a free agent and he will command big dollars.  We need a play maker in that mold.  
 
I understand that we don't have too much cap room, we just have to upgrade our talent level.  Getting out of Hernandez's contract is the clear play at this point and Bob Kraft needs to call in as many favors as possible.  
 
 
Here's my suggestion provided we get out of Hernandez's contract.  
 
Offense
 
Trade for a possession receiver (there's a slight chance Vincent Jackson is cut this year - definitely next year.  Has the shine worn off Larry Fitzgerald?  While he had a great year, he's 30 years old and has a cap hit of $5 Mil), draft a catching and blocking tight-end with your first round pick.  Second and Third Round Draft Oline Guards.  Kellen Winslow just got caught masterbating in his car and he's a decent pass catcher in the Hernandez mold.
 
Logan Mankins is getting cut next year.  Perhaps he will restructure his contract so he can continue for both years.  Connolly is being cut for a $3M savings.  Gost is a candidate to be cut and if you can find a FA kicker or 5th rounder do that.  
 
Defense
 
Defense is going to be patchwork. I trust BB to bring in the right guys.  I say we patchwork our secondary as we have a few young players fairly talented but bring in a difference maker at OLB.  Brian Orakpo depending on what he commands is an excellent candidate. Vontae Davis  (0 interceptions) I feel is a good buy-low candidate.  Bring in another ball-hawking safety on the right side of 30 rather than a punisher.
 
Just a few ideas.  Healthy we have a great talent level but we desperately need a few key acquisitions to get us to that hump to elite.  

 

[JohnnyK]

do whatever it takes to shed Arrington, and sign/draft DB depth. Gregory should also be gone.

shed that Amendola guaranteed money.

Congrats, you just generated nearly 10 mill. in dead money. Any other ideas?
 
Amendola was hurt all year. I get the frustration, and counting on him to be healthy a full season might seem like a longshot, but can we please stop with this crap?

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

I trust Dante to build up some mid round picks. I want D-line and TE to be the focus in the 1st 2 rounds.

Getting Chandler Jones a partner in crime would do wonders for our pass D too.

 
This is true, but talent can't be ignored. Mankins, Vollmer, and Solder are all 1-2nd picks. I'd be thrilled with a 2nd round OL, and a 1st round TE pick. 
 
Keep Wilfork, Kelly, and rotate Siliga, Jones, and Vellano for DT -- I think this is one area where a mid-round pick may do.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

 
 
Johnson only has one year left on his deal so the Pats may be able to entice BoB with an additional pick. 
 
Based on Johnson's comments earlier this year, I don't think he wants to be around for a rebuild.

Well Houston has a weird situation. I wouldn't really classify it as a rebuild because a lot of things went wrong for them this year but they've been a solid team the last few years. That being said the Pats need to land a #1 WR. They need to draft one, trade for one...doesn't matter. But they need one. Andre Johnson or Fitzgerald it doesn't matter.

 

[JohnnyK]

Keep Wilfork, Kelly, and rotate Siliga, Jones, and Vellano for DT -- I think this is one area where a mid-round pick may do.

While I agree - Kelly has a 2.6 mill cap hit, 500k in dead money, and is 34, coming off a knee injury. I do not think it's a given he will be back. And Siliga's contract is up, so if there is any competition for his services, they might not be able to bring him back.
 
I'm guessing BB will try to trade out of round 1 and then go OL/DL/TE with some combination of 2nd and 3rd round picks.

 

[NortheasternPJ]

 
We need a shut-down corner in the line of Sherman.  Talib while not oft injured, just can't seem to be on the field at the right time. 
 

 
Isn't this true of nearly every team in the league? There's only a handful of these guys and they're impossible to get. There's a reason why they went to get Talib even with his attitude & injury problems, there are limited options.

 

[Morning Woodhead]

I'm still stuck on the DL.  A big body would be nice to play opposite Jones.  A couple of free agents that most likely won't break the bank:
 
Everson Griffen (Vikings), Tyson Jackson, (Chiefs).  Football outsiders thought real highly of Jackson this year.  He's coming off a big rookie contract which may hurt the Pats chances, but he'd look good on the DL. 

 

[MarcSullivaFan]

Interior o-line and d line are by far the biggest needs I see. This was the worst pass protecting Pats team in many years. Especially without Gronk, they could not throw the ball consistently without running it well. A healthy Wilfork and Kelly would make this a different defense, but relying on them to return to pre-injury form at this stage in their careers seems pretty risky. After that, TE and more DBs. You cannot have enough DBs in this league.

 

[Stitch01]

I'm not being reactionary but that's clearly not enough.  Hopefully Wilfork and Mayo will shore up the middle of the field but we're not sure if Wilfork can return to form and Mayo (as good as he is - and he is a sure tackler) is no Bowman or Bennett.
 
Tom Brady needs a possession receiver to out physical a corner and just make a play.  We'll see what dollar figure Edelman commands and while he's a loss, I feel that those resources are best spent elsewhere.
 
We need a shut-down corner in the line of Sherman.  Talib while not oft injured, just can't seem to be on the field at the right time. 
 
Collins needs to get stronger and faster.  Hopefullly he can step up his game.  Brian Orakpo is a free agent and he will command big dollars.  We need a play maker in that mold.  
 
I understand that we don't have too much cap room, we just have to upgrade our talent level.  Getting out of Hernandez's contract is the clear play at this point and Bob Kraft needs to call in as many favors as possible.  
 
 
Here's my suggestion provided we get out of Hernandez's contract.  
 
Offense
 
Trade for a possession receiver (there's a slight chance Vincent Jackson is cut this year - definitely next year.  Has the shine worn off Larry Fitzgerald?  While he had a great year, he's 30 years old and has a cap hit of $5 Mil), draft a catching and blocking tight-end with your first round pick.  Second and Third Round Draft Oline Guards.  Kellen Winslow just got caught masterbating in his car and he's a decent pass catcher in the Hernandez mold.
 
Logan Mankins is getting cut next year.  Perhaps he will restructure his contract so he can continue for both years.  Connolly is being cut for a $3M savings.  Gost is a candidate to be cut and if you can find a FA kicker or 5th rounder do that.  
 
Defense
 
Defense is going to be patchwork. I trust BB to bring in the right guys.  I say we patchwork our secondary as we have a few young players fairly talented but bring in a difference maker at OLB.  Brian Orakpo depending on what he commands is an excellent candidate. Vontae Davis  (0 interceptions) I feel is a good buy-low candidate.  Bring in another ball-hawking safety on the right side of 30 rather than a punisher.
 
Just a few ideas.  Healthy we have a great talent level but we desperately need a few key acquisitions to get us to that hump to elite.

Mankins is not cuttable this year. Connolly doesn't save 3 million.

Getting a shut down corner is not particularly easy

Shedding the Hernandez cap money ain't happening

We had Kellen Winslow. He's cooked.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

I wouldn't bet my money on it. They'll try to outsmart everyone again and end up with lackluster talent in a playoff game again next year. But they'll get a pass because most of their fans won't actually blame them for the lack of talent; the fans will instead focus on how "scrappy" they are in loss and how they're proud of them because they overachieved.

Sorry, had to let that one out (even though I know it'll twist many the wrong way). The DEFENSE overachieved, the GM let us down on offense, particularly at the WR position.

Do us all a favor and fuck off and die.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

And if people want a Richard Sherman, just take Talib and pump him full of horse steroids.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

FIVE defensive stalwarts out for the game yesterday: Wilfork, Mayo, Spikes, Kelley, and Talib for the second half. And people are bitching about BB the GM? Amazing.

 

[NortheasternPJ]

FIVE defensive stalwarts out for the game yesterday: Wilfork, Mayo, Spikes, Kelley, and Talib for the second half. And people are bitching about BB the GM? Amazing.

 
Plus Chandler Jones sucks because he had one pressure! Only 1! Oh, wait, he was triple teamed at times during the game? Whatever, fire Bill!

 

[lexrageorge]

Looking at OverTheCap, the Pats have about $115M committed to active players, plus another $8.5M in dead money thanks mostly to Aaron Hernandez, for a total of $123.5M.  That leaves about $3M in cap room; not enough, obviously.  
 
While it's theoretically possible that the Pats could recover the Hernandez signing bonus, it seems unlikely.  Hernandez hasn't even been charged with the earlier murders yet, and that won't happen unless and until the DA's office has amassed enough hard evidence.  Even if it does happen, the Pats would still have to deal with the grievance process.  So we should assume that the dead money remains at $8.5M for the 2014 season.
 
Wilfork could be cut or restructured to save $8M.  Cutting Mankins saves $2.5M, but that still leaves $8M in dead money; if they are in GFIN mode, they could attempt to restructure and add a couple of years to the back end of his existing deal to kick the can down the road; at best I'm guessing they could save a total of about $3M to $4M if they went down that path.  Mayo's another big charge, and they could save $3.5M by cutting him, but that leaves a pretty big hole on the defense.   
 
Cutting Connolly saves $3M.  They could easily extend Ghost and reduce his $3.8M cap number substantially.  Sopoaga, Gregory, Tommy Kelly, Slater represent another $9M in potential cap savings.
 
Assuming Connolly, Wilfork, Sopoga, Gregory, Kelly, and Slater are all cut, they would save $20M.  Adding in some savings from a potential restructuring of Ghost's contract and they are at $22.5M.  IOW, they would have about $25M in cap space to resign their own FA's and sign other players, including their higher round draft picks (~$1.5M or so needed for that).  Of course, they would still need to fill some holes resulting from those cuts (one reason I left Mankins on the team in this calculation). 
 
EDIT:  Thanks NPJ.  There may be some cap carryover from 2013, that could add up to $8M to the space above.  However, I'm unable to find accurate estimates on this.

 

[Ralphwiggum]

They are not going to be in GFIN mode, if what you mean by that is that they are going to ditch the philosophy they have used to run the team and manage the cap over the past 15 years to try to win next year, and thus screwing themselves cap-wise 2-3 years down the road.  I don't believe that Kraft wants his franchise run that way, ever, and I believe that he and BB are in complete agreement on that point.  There is no "window" of opportunity in their eyes, and they don't plan on rebuilding or being irrelevant once Brady (and BB) retire.

 

[NortheasternPJ]

Looking at OverTheCap, the Pats have about $115M committed to active players, plus another $8.5M in dead money thanks mostly to Aaron Hernandez, for a total of $123.5M.  That leaves about $3M in cap room; not enough, obviously.  
 
While it's theoretically possible that the Pats could recover the Hernandez signing bonus, it seems unlikely.  Hernandez hasn't even been charged with the earlier murders yet, and that won't happen unless and until the DA's office has amassed enough hard evidence.  Even if it does happen, the Pats would still have to deal with the grievance process.  So we should assume that the dead money remains at $8.5M for the 2014 season.
 
Wilfork could be cut or restructured to save $8M.  Cutting Mankins saves $2.5M, but that still leaves $8M in dead money; if they are in GFIN mode, they could attempt to restructure and add a couple of years to the back end of his existing deal to kick the can down the road; at best I'm guessing they could save a total of about $3M to $4M if they went down that path.  Mayo's another big charge, and they could save $3.5M by cutting him, but that leaves a pretty big hole on the defense.   
 
Cutting Connolly saves $3M.  They could easily extend Ghost and reduce his $3.8M cap number substantially.  Sopoaga, Gregory, Tommy Kelly, Slater represent another $9M in potential cap savings.
 
Assuming Connolly, Wilfork, Sopoga, Gregory, Kelly, and Slater are all cut, they would save $20M.  Adding in some savings from a potential restructuring of Ghost's contract and they are at $22.5M.  IOW, they would have about $25M in cap space to resign their own FA's and sign other players, including their higher round draft picks (~$1.5M or so needed for that).  Of course, they would still need to fill some holes resulting from those cuts (one reason I left Mankins on the team in this calculation). 

 
I heard at some point over the weekend that the Pats are $8M under the cap this year and under the new CBA they can roll that into next year without doing all the fake incentives. Not sure how accurate that is.

 

[Buck Showalter]

While I happen to agree that the Pats have many deficiencies on the personnel-side --- I believe that some of that falls on BB.
 
I'd like to see him bring Scott Pioli back into the organization as another set of eyes that helped build this the first-time.
 
BB is without question the best football coach in the NFL.
 
As the GM - BB has been spotty.

 

[Ralphwiggum]

I think their last few drafts have been pretty awesome (considering they are never picking in the top half of the first round) and definitely better than the last few under Pioli:
 
2013:  Collins, Ryan, Dobson all look good, Boyce and Harmon have potential
 
2012:  Jones, Hightower, and Dennard
 
2011:  Solder, Vereen, Ridley, Cannon
 
2010:  McCourty, Gronk, Spikes, Hernandez
 
They have gotten 3-4 starters out of every draft, plus a couple of pro-bowlers and one guy who is a HOF level talent (with health issues obviously).
 
The 2006 to 2009 drafts are pretty ugly if you look back at them.  There is Mayo and not much else.  Those were Pioli drafts.

 

[dcmissle]

I think the Pats have done a very good but not great job on personnel in recent years.  I am not at all sure Pioli would be an answer.  Greatness would lead you to the team constructors in the NFC West, which the day before yesterday, it seems, was a national joke.  And which has put the lie to the contention that excellent defense is next to impossible in today's NFL. 
 
Agree with Ralph that they will not be in GFIN mode.  Not only would that be contrary to the philosophy of the last 13 years, but also it's unlikely to net the big fish and would probably cost them pretty big down the road.
 
Also agree with Stich (I believe), who said that TB is not what he once was but still good enough to win a title if surrounded with sufficient healthy talent.  Be happy; probably half the teams in the League cannot say this going into the season and thus have no realistic chance at a SB appearance.
 
Realistically, Brady has at most a 3-year window to win a title.  (Note -- win a title, not reach the CCG or SB and get slaughtered there).  Almost everything will have to break right to do it.

 

[Leather]

While I happen to agree that the Pats have many deficiencies on the personnel-side --- I believe that some of that falls on BB.
 
I'd like to see him bring Scott Pioli back into the organization as another set of eyes that helped build this the first-time.
 
BB is without question the best football coach in the NFL.
 
As the GM - BB has been spotty.

 
If BB the GM could draft in the top-10 every few years, I don't think we're even having this conversation.  But BB the coach is too good at his job to allow that to happen.

 

[lexrageorge]

While I happen to agree that the Pats have many deficiencies on the personnel-side --- I believe that some of that falls on BB.
 
I'd like to see him bring Scott Pioli back into the organization as another set of eyes that helped build this the first-time.
 
BB is without question the best football coach in the NFL.
 
As the GM - BB has been spotty.

I absolutely hate this meme.  In fact, I'll go even further and say that the "BB is a spotty GM" meme is utterly stupid.  
 
Consider the following teams since the Pats last won a Super Bowl:
 
Pittsburgh Steelers:  3 SB appearances, 2 SB victory, 3 8-8 and 1 9-7 seasons where they missed the playoffs entirely.
Seattle Seahawks:  2 SB appearances, 4 losing seasons (7-9, 7-9, 5-11, 4-12).
Indy Colts:  2 SB appearances, 1 SB victory, 1 2-14 season 
Chicago Bears:  1 playoff appearance since 2007 Super Bowl
NY Giants:  2 SB victories (ouch!), four DNQ's. 
Arizona Cardinals:  1 SB appearance, and only 1 other playoff appearance in that time.
NO Saints:  1 SB victory, and 4 playoff DNQ's.  
Green Bay:  1 SB victory, 3 playoff DNQ's, and a couple of first round exits. 
Ravens:  1 SB victory, 3 playoff DNQ's. 
49'ers:  1 SB appearance, but they are a fairly recent entry to the upper echelon after having missed the playoffs entirely for 8 consecutive seasons. 
 
The Colts were probably the most consistent of this bunch.  
 
If you're going to rank Belichick the GM, you need to rank him against the above group.  With 2 SB appearances, 4 AFCCG appearances, and only 1 DNQ, his record more than holds his own. 

 

[Morning Woodhead]

I think their last few drafts have been pretty awesome (considering they are never picking in the top half of the first round) and definitely better than the last few under Pioli:
 
2013:  Collins, Ryan, Dobson all look good, Boyce and Harmon have potential
 
2012:  Jones, Hightower, and Dennard
 
2011:  Solder, Vereen, Ridley, Cannon
 
2010:  McCourty, Gronk, Spikes, Hernandez
 
They have gotten 3-4 starters out of every draft, plus a couple of pro-bowlers and one guy who is a HOF level talent (with health issues obviously).
 
The 2006 to 2009 drafts are pretty ugly if you look back at them.  There is Mayo and not much else.  Those were Pioli drafts.

 
This needs more love.  Pioli's drafts were awful.  Just awful.  We'll never know how much was him and how much was BB, but the drafting has improved dramatically since Pioli left. 
 
2006 -
 
#1 - Laurence Maroney - RB
#2 - Chad Jackson - WR
Only player remaining on team - Ghost
 
2007
#1 - Brandon Merriweather
#2 - N/A Trade For Welker
Zero players remaining on team from draft
 
2008
#1 - Mayo - LB
#2 - Wheatley - DB
Mayo is only player from entire draft class still on the team. 
 
That is 5 1st and 2nd round picks, with only 1 starter still on the team.  Pathetic. 

 

[Ralphwiggum]

Right, we don't really know how much was BB and how much was Pioli (or how much is Caserio now) but the point stands that the team's draft record has improved considerably since Pioli left.  Maybe there is no skill to drafting and that is all just shit luck, but there is very little to support the fact that what BB needs is Scott Pioli to come back.

 

[axx]

Realistically, Brady has at most a 3-year window to win a title.  (Note -- win a title, not reach the CCG or SB and get slaughtered there).  Almost everything will have to break right to do it.

 
See, I think the upside is the CCG. It's not like they didn't get a ton of breaks to get the record they had.
 
And the funny thing is? The AFC East has been so awful that they probably will get enough wins for a bye and play in the AFCCG again next season. And lose.

 

[Ralphwiggum]

 
See, I think the upside is the CCG. It's not like they didn't get a ton of breaks to get the record they had.
 
And the funny thing is? The AFC East has been so awful that they probably will get enough wins for a bye and play in the AFCCG again next season. And lose.

 
Geez, so why watch? 

 

[Buck Showalter]

 
If BB the GM could draft in the top-10 every few years, I don't think we're even having this conversation.  But BB the coach is too good at his job to allow that to happen.

 
The draft is one (arguably the most important) way to improve.
 
Free agency - where Pioli had much success - is another.

 

[moondog80]

 
This needs more love.  Pioli's drafts were awful.  Just awful.  We'll never know how much was him and how much was BB, but the drafting has improved dramatically since Pioli left. 
 
2006 -
 
#1 - Laurence Maroney - RB
#2 - Chad Jackson - WR
Only player remaining on team - Ghost
 
2007
#1 - Brandon Merriweather
#2 - N/A Trade For Welker
Zero players remaining on team from draft
 
2008
#1 - Mayo - LB
#2 - Wheatley - DB
Mayo is only player from entire draft class still on the team. 
 
That is 5 1st and 2nd round picks, with only 1 starter still on the team.  Pathetic. 

  League wide, how many guys from the 2006 draft are still with the same team?  That's a long time in football years.  And 2009 did yield Edleman and Vollmer.  That said, the results do seem to have gotten better recently.

 

[dcmissle]

 
Geez, so why watch? 

 
 
Because I got enormous pleasure watching our HOF coach and QB take them this far, to a record probably 2 or 3 games better than they would have had with any other HC. 
 
Eventually in the playoffs elite talent is almost always going to win out.  So you play the hand you have and hope for the best.
 
EDIT -- I should not have answered for ax.  This is my answer.

 

[DJnVa]

Who in the AFC is definitely better next season? Denver if Peyton returns will obviously be good, and Indy I guess, but beyond that? I'll take my chances.
 
I'm on the side of we need Edelman back. Brady needs one guy he trusts and Gronk and Amendola are a bit iffy, although I am pro-Amendola.

 

[Devizier]

And if people want a Richard Sherman, just take Talib and pump him full of horse steroids.

 
You're assuming that an elite NFL player isn't already using a ton of steroids?
 
This team did pretty well considering all the dead money they have in an incarcerated player. Is there no way for the team to get relief? A moral turpitude clause?

 

[Ralphwiggum]

 
 
Because I got enormous pleasure watching our HOF coach and QB take them this far, to a record probably 2 or 3 games better than they would have had with any other HC. 
 
Eventually in the playoffs elite talent is almost always going to win out.  So you play the hand you have and hope for the best.
 
EDIT -- I should not have answered for ax.  This is my answer.

 
I disagree with the notion that elite talent will eventually win out in the playoffs.
 
I don't think Baltimore was more talented than the Broncos, Pats or 49ers last year.

I don't think the Giants were the most talented team in 2011.
 
2007 Giants?  2001 Pats?  The Cardinals (who came within a play of winning in '09) were definitely not the most talented team.  You have to have talent for sure but I vehemently disagree that talent is the driving factor in who wins in the NFL.  It is one variable but many others matter.  Plus, I think the Pats have a very talented roster.  When healthy, I think they are good enough to win.
 
I don't think the issue for the Pats has been talent at all.  They have just not played their best games in the playoffs the last few years for whatever reason.  This year (and maybe the Ravens in 2009 since the 2009 Pats were not very good) are the only years in recent memory when I truly think the Pats lost because of lack of talent on the field.

 

[Leather]

 
The draft is one (arguably the most important) way to improve.
 
Free agency - where Pioli had much success - is another.

 
That's fair, but I think the two issues are linked.  If you can get cost-controlled premium players in the draft, you A) have fewer holes to fill via FA, and B) you have more money to spend on those fewer FAs.

 

[Stitch01]

I think the Pats have done a very good but not great job on personnel in recent years.  I am not at all sure Pioli would be an answer.  Greatness would lead you to the team constructors in the NFC West, which the day before yesterday, it seems, was a national joke.  And which has put the lie to the contention that excellent defense is next to impossible in today's NFL. 
 
Agree with Ralph that they will not be in GFIN mode.  Not only would that be contrary to the philosophy of the last 13 years, but also it's unlikely to net the big fish and would probably cost them pretty big down the road.
 
Also agree with Stich (I believe), who said that TB is not what he once was but still good enough to win a title if surrounded with sufficient healthy talent.  Be happy; probably half the teams in the League cannot say this going into the season and thus have no realistic chance at a SB appearance.
 
Realistically, Brady has at most a 3-year window to win a title.  (Note -- win a title, not reach the CCG or SB and get slaughtered there).  Almost everything will have to break right to do it.

I don't think everything needs to break right. Probably cant have half the team on IR and, like any champion team, will need a bounce or a break here or there in a playoff run, but they can deal with some adversity and still win a title. The talent is still very good.

 

[NortheasternPJ]

Who in the AFC is definitely better next season? Denver if Peyton returns will obviously be good, and Indy I guess, but beyond that? I'll take my chances.
 
I'm on the side of we need Edelman back. Brady needs one guy he trusts and Gronk and Amendola are a bit iffy, although I am pro-Amendola.

It'll be interesting to see what Denver does with Decker, Moreno and Rogers Cromartie all UFA and if they can bring them all back. They are in good shape with the cap i believe.

 

[dcmissle]

I don't think everything needs to break right. Probably cant have half the team on IR and, like any champion team, will need a bounce or a break here or there in a playoff run, but they can deal with some adversity and still win a title. The talent is still very good.

 
 
Well do you think any significant part of it can break wrong?
 
For example, I think almost everyone agrees that this is not the year to invest heavily at WR, unless some gem unexpectedly falls into your lap on draft day.  Well what if Dobson, Thompkins and Boyce don't develop?  There is reasonable basis for hope that they will, but they have proven nothing in the NFL.

 

[Reverend]

Maybe we need a garbage can thread for the "BB as GM Wars" the way FootballOutsiders used to do with the Brady v. Manning debate so it doesn't derail discussions of everything else?
 
On topic: while I am on-board with the idea of another good TE, we need to remember the value the Patriots obtained in terms of talent in Gronkowski and Hernandez was a function of them each dropping in the draft due to concerns, health and behavioral respectively. They are not likely to hit the lottery for a talent like that with a second or third pick again, so the decision of when to go for a TE in the draft has to be made in the context of whether or not high picks are better served shoring up one of the lines.

 

[DJnVa]

What do we do at RB? With Blount a FA can we afford to pay him what he may now be worth, along with Ridley and Vereen back there?
 
I think Ridley is signed through 2014, as is Vereen and I'd bet Vereen is higher on the priority list right now. I want Blount back, but he may want more than a 1 year deal.

 

[Stitch01]

 
 
Well do you think any significant part of it can break wrong?
 
For example, I think almost everyone agrees that this is not the year to invest heavily at WR, unless some gem unexpectedly falls into your lap on draft day.  Well what if Dobson, Thompkins and Boyce don't develop?  There is reasonable basis for hope that they will, but they have proven nothing in the NFL.

I agree WR shouldnt be a priority.  WR's not developing is less than ideal but unless they regress Dobson and Thompkins (particularly the former) were contributing NFL players this year. I absolutely think its possible to win a Super Bowl with this years receiving group and Gronk contributing.  Its harder without Gronk, but Gronk not contributing in a three year window AND none of the receivers progressing AND doing nothing else to shore up the WR during that three year window is well outside of "everything breaking right" IMO.
 
They can miss on a draft pick, miss on a free agent or two, get a couple of key injuries, and still have a decent shot of winning one in the next three years.  There's less margin of error than a couple of years ago, but its not zero

 

[RetractableRoof]

What do we do at RB? With Blount a FA can we afford to pay him what he may now be worth, along with Ridley and Vereen back there?
 
I think Ridley is signed through 2014, as is Vereen and I'd bet Vereen is higher on the priority list right now. I want Blount back, but he may want more than a 1 year deal.

And you might have to factor in that Talib's resigning might be influenced by Blount's.

 

[teddykgb]

I think the track record of this QB and rookie receivers tells me that this year's crop probably did about as well as could have been hoped for. I don't think drafting another should be much of a priority, since the can't miss receiver just won't fall to them in the draft. They haven't exactly been lucky in finding FA WRs either, but I think if they want to upgrade at this position they're going to have to go the FA route and hope the WR can mesh with Brady and their offense.

I think the focus has to be on the lines. There have been too many losses in big games where they simply can't control the line of scrimmage. In general, I tend to veer toward the extreme in that I never understand why teams don't spend more of their money on dominant linemen, but I can recognize that this isn't how it works. Nonetheless, I think they were too banged up and thin on the OL and, amazingly, the DL (in spite of a lot of draft picks on DL). There's a need for skill players, but I think the team probably needs more out of both of its lines to win these Championship games and Super Bowls. If they had managed a win yesterday, they probably inevitably play just as ugly a game against either SF or SEA, given the strengths of both of those teams.

 

[DJnVa]

Well, there's a chance Denver cuts Welker, but BB's comments about the Talib hit probably rule that out. What about Decker? He had a good year with Manning, so I would think he could pick up the Pats offense as well.

 

[SoxPatsCeltsBruins]

Who in the AFC is definitely better next season? Denver if Peyton returns will obviously be good, and Indy I guess, but beyond that? I'll take my chances.
 
I'm on the side of we need Edelman back. Brady needs one guy he trusts and Gronk and Amendola are a bit iffy, although I am pro-Amendola.

Denver has an insanely tough schedule next year.  They might not even get a bye