But isn’t the issue with that that by including Fournier, you almost have to move Smart in order to stay under the tax?
Stop hoarding TP(E) - the what should the Celtics do with the TPE thread
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Others can correct me if I’m wrong but if we include say Grant and Nesmith with TT in the deal while manipulating some of the backend players (moving Langford for protected 2nd while paying his salary, etc) wouldn’t that also keep us below?
I mean, maybe? The thing is the rumor noted that the hangup is ORL wants Smart.
Beyond that, if we're trying to stay under the tax it's very difficult to add both without moving Smart. It would take, both Theis and Thompson, plus Nesmith and Langford.
So the deal would need to be something like:
Gordon
FOurnier
for
Theis
Thompson
Langford
Nesmith
1sts.
That seems a poor trade for us.
Gordon makes a lot of sense. Fournier doesn't make as much sense given salary. Both together makes almost no sense.
Including Fournier and sending out Smart makes this more of a "win now" move, as opposed to a "win next year and compete this year" trade, which concerns me a little.
The other problem with getting this deal done is that there are other teams competing with us for both Gordon and other looking to absorb Fournier’s deal. It’s so difficult to get trades done at the deadline when there isn’t an ending value on the draft picks.
In that case, assuming no concerns with the repeater (I doubt it) AND assuming ORL will do the deal without Smart, it probably looks like:
Gordon
FOurnier
for
Thompson
Nesmith
2nd young guy (Grant?, Langford?, PP)
2021 1st, 2023 1st
Maybe they add a 3rd team that takes TT and sends ORL something for him.
It would really be structured as Gordon for the 1sts, and a simultaneous trade of Fournier for the flotsam.
Hollinger wrote a little on the possiblity of a trade:
https://theathletic.com/2469290/2021/03/23/nba-trade-deadline-week-2021-live-blog-updates-news-and-observations-from-the-athletics-insiders/
He notes that a TT and Birch addition makes a lot of sense for BOS, but ORL would likely be uninterested (a 3rd team?), and speculates that the Celtics might want to have this as an extend and trade for Fournier.
I still don't love it, but if you're getting 3 years of Fournier, that suddenly makes a lot more sense in terms of including Smart.
https://theathletic.com/2469290/2021/03/23/nba-trade-deadline-week-2021-live-blog-updates-news-and-observations-from-the-athletics-insiders/
He notes that a TT and Birch addition makes a lot of sense for BOS, but ORL would likely be uninterested (a 3rd team?), and speculates that the Celtics might want to have this as an extend and trade for Fournier.
I still don't love it, but if you're getting 3 years of Fournier, that suddenly makes a lot more sense in terms of including Smart.
I wouldn't do the trade with Smart because it leaves us in the same spot next year. Short a rotation player. It's a 1 to 1 swap. It's dumb.
Gordon isn't any worse than Smart tho.
So combined some trades...
THis would make a lot of sense honestly. ORL would also get 2 Celtics 1sts, TOR would get picks from PHI, Fournier agrees to a 2/33 extension.
THis would make a lot of sense honestly. ORL would also get 2 Celtics 1sts, TOR would get picks from PHI, Fournier agrees to a 2/33 extension.
Hayward has stated publicly that he wasn't thrilled about being the third or fourth option on a team.
And also maybe they thought they could compete with staying under the tax, but now realize that is not the case?
We are all just guessing here
If that's true, what a colossal lapse in judgement by Ainge.
Let's replace Kanter and Wanamaker but not Hayward.
At one point in time, Fournier was considered to be a really terrible defensive player, is that still the case?
This is where I have been on Gordon---he's not perfect or a perfect fit, but he's a useful piece and adds some versatility at both ends which this team badly needs.
Agreed---well done that is a trade that makes a lot of sense for each team. Acknowledging, of course, that Orlando's plan and timeline is always somewhat challenging to discern...
Hard to say, he was terrible, then in 18-19 he was pretty decent, trailed off some last year and this, but not as bad as he had been.
What lapse are you talking about Not re-signing GH or not replacing him?
I doubt GH would have re-signed here as (as stated above) he's been very public about wanting a bigger role.
As for replacing him, we've been through this a ton of times - who was DA going to get at that point? And don't forget that this was a team that without GH won versus PHI (without Simmons true) and beat TOR.
Read his post. If Ainge could have re-signed Hayward but didn't because he assumed the team could stay under the tax and compete for a title without replacing him... yeah.
It's pretty clear they want to stay under the tax. There is no lapse because it was a theoretical.
Perhaps. but wouldn't you rather see him correct his thinking rather than just throw his hand up?
Yeah, but not with Evan Fournier.
I flip flop on Gordon all the time so if the C's do trade for him, I'll be ok. Adding Fournier and Smart to the deal, not so much. The point is to add players for this year, but also for next and beyond. This deal doesn't do that. It ends up being Gordon for Smart.
Next year, we'd be in the same position.
View: https://twitter.com/FortyEightMins/status/1374392333043523593
I have no idea about the quality of any of this reporting, but it's interesting fodder, if nothing else.
I have no idea about the quality of any of this reporting, but it's interesting fodder, if nothing else.
Yeah. I'm not a huge fan but he's a 30 minute rotational player. Not a fan of Smart either, but he's the same thing.
I'm definitely not a fan of the trade though. We'd be in the same exact position next year that we are in this year. 1 or 2 players short.
This is why I don’t feel Ainge includes Smart in the deal. Taking Fournier’s contract off the Magic’s hands in exchange for the picks has to be where Ainge draws the line. It seems like the Magic may have better options with Fournier to accomplish what they need which would likely kill the entire deal imo.
This is only worthwhile if Ainge is committed to maxing Collins or else we won’t be able to retain him.
I agree to an extent, BUT... I do think calling it adding Smart and Fournier isn't exactly accurate. It sounds more like it's adding Fournier to even out that ORL won't do it without Smart.
Now, personally I don't love it, but if you are getting Fournier on a 2 year extension at a rate you like, it makes some sense.
It's possible we can get Gordon without Smart, but ORL has quite a few suitors... Gordon is a good player, who some think has All-Defense potential and is only 25. He's basically a very similar player to Smart at a different position.
ORL isn't looking to save a few million, they're trading Fournier because they think they can get value for him (I bet the Knicks for example would give up something for him). If it were just money they could buy him out.
I think there still is a chance you get him for Jaylen Brown money, but yes, you need to be willing to match any max offer.
So they want 2 1st and Marcus Smart for just Aaron Gordon? That does sound like Orlando. And it fits into the twitter offer of 2 picks and a "young" player.
I don't know how they could afford to sign Fournier to a 2 year extension either. They'd have to move Kemba. Aaron Gordon also makes more than Marcus Smart. I'm sure they could figure out a way but it would gut the roster.
Gordon has all-defensive potential now?? I'm still waiting for the case that he's on the right side of the bell curve.
Yea, i think Marcus Smart is definitely positive value on his contract and probably similar value as Gordon (Smart lower AAV - both signed through next year). Same goes for Collins IMO.
Smart would hold more value to playoff team in ATL than someone like ORL though
Smart would hold more value to playoff team in ATL than someone like ORL though
We could have had Turner for free, and now we're jazzed to send multiple firsts and players for Gordon.
I read his post. As well as the one previous. The exchange was:
(1) And also maybe they thought they could compete with staying under the tax, but now realize that is not the case?
(2) If that's true, what a colossal lapse in judgement by Ainge
There were two ways to compete: (i) re-signing GH or (ii) replacing him. I was asking which one he was referring to. Maybe he was referring to both.
At any rate, with respect to (i), there have been no indications that GH was resigning with BOS given his request to have a more prominent role. Maybe GH would have taken a ton more money to stay with BOS but did anyone want to give GH even the 4/$120 that he got, much less more than that?
And with respect to (ii), sure it would have been great to find someone to replace GH but as we've discussed too many times before, no one could really identify anyone who would have been worth the money. DA clearly did not want to go over the tax to sign Myles Turner - which was probably the correct decision given how TL has developed. Note that DA appears that he would have gone over the tax line if he could have gotten Oladipo but Pritchard wanted more than just GH (a non-trade that ended up hurting both teams).
At least Aaron Gordon guards the other team's best wing every night. Myles Turner can't do that at all.
I think that the reporting on the Orlando/Boston negotiation is conflating separate offers and acting like its all one offer.
It makes less than 0 sense to add 2 1st round picks to Marcus Smart for the privilege of getting Aaron Gordon (and I am a Gordon fan). Smart makes less, they have the same amount of time left on their contract, and Smart is only 2 years older.
If Smart is in the deal, I can’t imagine Danny adding picks (and if picks are added they would be 2nd rounders id guess).
Personally, I think there’s an offer with Smart and end of roster players for both Fournier and Gordon.
I also think that the offer that contains 2 1sts has Kemba in it and not Smart. Something like Kemba, Nesmith and 2 lottery protected 1sts for Gordon and Fournier.
Kemba gets reunited with Clifford, Orlando can make their annual playoff appearance and get smoked in the 1st round
You and I can guard the team's best wing every night, we'd just do it poorly.
The defensive metrics on Gordon seem pretty mixed. Middle of the bell curve. Can't really shoot (SSS 3pt% this year notwithstanding). Is a legit basketball player and would take minutes from worse players, I realize.
If I've missed something and there's compelling data that show that AG is even an above-average defender, I apologize for going down this rabbit hole.
Why would Orlando ever do that Kemba deal when surely other better offers would be out there? At the end of the day I’d guess the Magic wait on Ainge to include Smart, which he won’t, and we end up adding some crap bench piece before Ainge’s presser defending himself about how hard it is to do deals at the deadline (he’s not wrong).
Yeah, I’m not saying that they’d accept it (they probably wouldn’t).
I think you pretty much nailed how it’s going to go honestly
Here's what seems to be a pretty good write-up on Gordon's defense: https://tank2win.com/2020/07/23/aaron-gordon-player-analysis/.
In addition to his great ISO defense, Gordon is in the 90th percentile among forwards for defensive rebounding percentgage and 86th percentile among forwards for offensive rebounding. Also, he is in 91st percentile among combo forwards for not committing defensive fouls - fouling on only 2.1% of all defensive plays: https://tank2win.com/2020/07/23/aaron-gordon-player-analysis/.
A lot of people I generally trust think he's a top defender on-ball. He guards a ton of the top guys, and he's generally done it well. He gets lost off-ball at times, and he can take his foot off the gas on a bad team, but when he's on, he's a monster.
His individual matchups against stars are interesting too.
Last 3 years his matchup with Giannis has been great (100 partial possessions, 44 points, 45% shooting, only 13 FTs) significant drop in efficiency and FTs drawn.
hasn't played LeBron this year, but previous two (106 partial possessions, 27 points, 36% shooting, 6 FTs, 11 TOs) huge drop in scoring, efficiency and FTs, big jump in TOVs
Harden last 3 (52 PP, 19 points, 32% shooting, 3FTA, 3 TOs) drop in scoring, huge drop in efficiency and FTs,
Butler last 3 (131.9 PP, 27 points, 52.6% shootin, 12 FTA, 8 TOV) this is his worst matchup, drop is scoring but on good efficiency,
There are other ways of making up $14 million in salary. However, Boston could elect to make next year the reset year by moving Kemba into someone's cap space next summer (again, assuming that TT is headed out in an Orlando deal).
Norman Powell anyone? Great shooter and signed for modest $11.6M before becoming UFA next summer. He would really help our spacing.
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/31124737/toronto-raptors-discussing-kyle-lowry-norman-powell-trades
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/31124737/toronto-raptors-discussing-kyle-lowry-norman-powell-trades
Follow up. Sounds like Powell can opt out of his contract this summer so he could potentially be a FA this summer instead of next.