Start, Sit, Trade: Play Along with Dave

[ElcaballitoMVP]

edit: What SoxLegacy just said.

To add my 2 cents: I guess it comes down to who DD prefers, the guy with the bigger upside with the bat (AB) or the guy with the longer track record of success in the minors (MM). Having both presents DD with a really nice trade chip while maintaining organizational depth at a key position. Right now, I'd keep Benintendi over Margot, simply for the bat.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Or, it could be as simple as the bench as currently constituted is a bit LHH heavy and the best and most direct way to address that is adding a RH hitting outfielder. No plans or expectations for platooning anyone. Just a simple 4th outfielder who will probably sit on the bench 4-5 games a week..

Agree with this completely.

 

[soxhop411]

Michael Silverman ‏@MikeSilvermanBB 8s8 seconds ago
Red Sox to meet with OF Chris Young later today. Indications are they want him to play a lot, not as their 4th OF. http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox/clubhouse_insider/2015/11/red_sox_to_meet_with_free_agent_of_chris_young_later_today…

BOCA RATON, Fla. – In another sign that the Red Sox are keeping a wide open mind to dealing one of their current big-league outfielders – Jackie Bradley Jr. is the lead candidate by a wide margin – the ballclub is scheduled to meet in a few hours with the representatives for free agent outfielder Chris Young, according to a major-league source at the GM meetings.
The 32-year-old Young is seeking an everyday job with his next ballclub, and he has received indications from the Red Sox that their interest in him is not as a fourth outfielder but as an everyday outfielder or at least one with significant playing time.
A former everyday center fielder with the Diamondbacks, Young has added the corner outfield positions to his resume the last three seasons spent with the A's, Mets and Yankees. Over his career, Young has graded out to be a slightly above average outfielder. In a limited sample size, he has been a slightly above average right fielder over the last two seasons.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Michael Silverman ‏@MikeSilvermanBB 8s8 seconds ago
Red Sox to meet with OF Chris Young later today. Indications are they want him to play a lot, not as their 4th OF. http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox/clubhouse_insider/2015/11/red_sox_to_meet_with_free_agent_of_chris_young_later_today…

Since this starts the silly season, let's weave together some disparate threads from yesterday:

Michael Brantley has shoulder surgery, so
Cleveland needs an outfielder, so
they have some decent starts to dangle in trade if they so desire, so
the Red Sox have outfielders, so
Dombrowski admits they were close to a deal (with team unknown) yesterday, so
if that deal were for an outfielder, signing Young is an option, so
perhaps the deal that was close isn't entirely dead, so
the Red Sox meet with Young today, so
if they strike a deal with Young, perhaps the deal (with unknown team) is back on, so
while it may well not be Cleveland, it might be, so
maybe it's San Diego

 

[swingin val]

I would still take Rusney over Young/x platoon

How can anyone assert something like this when the other half of the platoon is unknown?

I mean, Chris Young is a career 263/362/474 against LHP. If an equal talent, hitting from the left side, is found, it would appear that would be much better than simply tossing Castillo out there everyday.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

edit: What SoxLegacy just said.

To add my 2 cents: I guess it comes down to who DD prefers, the guy with the bigger upside with the bat (AB) or the guy with the longer track record of success in the minors (MM). Having both presents DD with a really nice trade chip while maintaining organizational depth at a key position. Right now, I'd keep Benintendi over Margot, simply for the bat.

It's not just who DD prefers. It's who potential trade partners prefer. And my guess, which is why I brought this up, is that teams will be interested in AB due to his ceiling and projected rapid rise.

 

[ElcaballitoMVP]

It's not just who DD prefers. It's who potential trade partners prefer. And my guess, which is why I brought this up, is that teams will be interested in AB due to his ceiling and projected rapid rise.

I just don't see the Sox being that eager to trade AB. Margot doesn't project to have the same impact with the bat, and is currently blocked in CF by Bradley and Betts, so from an organizational depth perspective it makes more sense to include him in offers. While teams may prefer AB to Margot, that doesn't mean an offer of Margot, Devers, Guerra can't get the Sox a shiny new addition to the rotation. I don't think the caliber of player you get back is going to be that much different replacing Benintendi in that offer.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

I just don't see the Sox being that eager to trade AB. Margot doesn't project to have the same impact with the bat, and is currently blocked in CF by Bradley and Betts, so from an organizational depth perspective it makes more sense to include him in offers. While teams may prefer AB to Margot, that doesn't mean an offer of Margot, Devers, Guerra can't get the Sox a shiny new addition to the rotation. I don't think the caliber of player you get back is going to be that much different replacing Benintendi in that offer.

I guess the last sentence is the key. I think it may be.
I completely agree that the Sox aren't eager to trade AB. I'm not either. I just think that he is, potentially, a much stronger trade chip than Margot. Hell, I like Devers a lot, too. But if one assumes that Betts, Bogaerts, Swihart, Moncada, and Espinoza are off the table(maybe or maybe not a fair assumption), no one else can be if a young stud starting pitcher in play.

 

[soxhop411]

Jen McCaffrey ‏@jcmccaffrey 15s15 seconds ago
Christian Vazquez's winter ball team folded, switched teams but he won't get as many ABs. DD unsure if he'll be ready for start of season...

Jen McCaffrey ‏@jcmccaffrey 1m1 minute ago
...with lack of playing time and recovery.

 

[JBJ_HOF]

I guess the last sentence is the key. I think it may be.
I completely agree that the Sox aren't eager to trade AB. I'm not either. I just think that he is, potentially, a much stronger trade chip than Margot. Hell, I like Devers a lot, too. But if one assumes that Betts, Bogaerts, Swihart, Moncada, and Espinoza are off the table(maybe or maybe not a fair assumption), no one else can be if a young stud starting pitcher in play.

For the record, Margot is the #25 prospect in baseball, and Law recently said many within baseball see him as Top 20 and is highly coveted.

 

[soxhop411]

Scott Lauber ‏@ScottLauber 2m2 minutes ago
Dombrowski characterized #RedSox' pursuit of outfield help as backburner thing. "I'd say we've had more conversations for pitching."

Scott Lauber ‏@ScottLauber 29s30 seconds ago
At moment, #RedSox can't guarantee playing time for free-agent outfielders. Dombrowski comfortable with JBJ, Castillo playing 140-plus games

Brian MacPherson ‏@brianmacp 8m8 minutes ago
Dombrowski on No. 12 overall pick: "It's a valuable pick for us, ... but I'm not averse to giving it up if you're in the right scenario."

 

[jimbobim]

Scott Lauber ‏@ScottLauber 10m10 minutes ago
White Sox GM Rich Hahn on the "will you trade Chris Sale" question: "We'd need to be overwhelmed to pull the trigger on something like that"

 

[nvalvo]

For the record, Margot is the #25 prospect in baseball, and Law recently said many within baseball see him as Top 20 and is highly coveted.

Yeah. I think a lot of people at this site are sleeping on Margot. He is a plus-plus defender at an up-the-middle position posting an OPS 50 points above league average and 30+ stolen bases in AA at age 20. If the legitimate XBH power he showed in Greenville bears out, he's a very good player.

Or, as SoxProspects has it: "Future first-division regular who could contribute in all areas of the game. Potential leadoff hitter who could hit for average and some power, steal bases and provide above average defense at a premium defensive position. Strong instincts, has really taken to professional baseball since he entered the system and adjusted to each challenge given to him seamlessly."

 

[jimbobim]

Like this though obviously have to take with a pretty big grain of salt

Scott Lauber ‏@ScottLauber 3m3 minutes ago
Will John Henry green-light big-ticket free-agent SP for #RedSox? Dombrowski: "We haven't eliminated anything at this time."

 

[Fireball Fred]

Vazquez now apparently without a team. Not helpful in terms of progress and assessment. If a spot isn't found for him, unlikely to start season in majors, seems to me.

 

[iayork]

Vazquez now apparently without a team. Not helpful in terms of progress and assessment. If a spot isn't found for him, unlikely to start season in majors, seems to me.

What's "without a team" mean? Last I heard (yesterday), his regular Puerto Rico team had folded, but he was DHing for Mayaguez in PR. That said, Dombrowski has said that Vaz is unlikely to start in the majors anyway, but I assume he'll be with the MLB team in spring training and they can decide then.

 

[soxhop411]

FOX Sports' Jon Morosi reports that the Red Sox have expressed interest in Joakim Soria.
General manager Dave Dombrowski, of course, traded for Soria when he was the GM of the Tigers. The market for the veteran reliever is heating up already, as Morosi reported earlier Tuesday that the Rangers and Tigers (two of the Soria's former clubs) are interested.

http://www.rotoworld.com/headlines/mlb/486558/Red-Sox-have-interest-in-Joakim-Soria

 

[jasvlm]

Would it be difficult to imagine that Cleveland matches up even better with the Red Sox now given Brantley's injury? An OFer close to the majors (or there already) would seem to fit the Tribe's need right now, and they have been willing to move Carrasco (or Salazar).
I could also envision a deal where the Red Sox offer up a lower level prospect (not someone close to the bigs) to get Kimbrel or Chapman to fortify the pen. Kimbrel should cost less, given that he's owed significant money (24 mil for the next 2 seasons, with a 1 mil buyout for 2018 or a 13 mil option), and the Padres desperately need a ss. I'd consider moving Marrero and a lower level prospect to get Kimbrel. Chapman has only a single year of control, so his price wouldn't be that exorbitant, and might be had for a package that included Owens or Margot as the primary return piece.
Just speculating.

 

[BaseballJones]

If they could get Kimbrel for Marrero and a lower level prospect, DDski would be crazy not to pull the trigger on that, IMO. That's not a steep price to pay for a reliever like that.

 

[JBJ_HOF]

After initially saying no, the Yankees offered Jorge Mateo at the deadline for Kimbrel and were turned down by San Diego. Marrero ain't coming close to getting anyone of note, and why wouldn't you trade for a younger, cheaper pitcher instead if you are really willing to give up legitimate prospects for a reliever?

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

What's "without a team" mean? Last I heard (yesterday), his regular Puerto Rico team had folded, but he was DHing for Mayaguez in PR. That said, Dombrowski has said that Vaz is unlikely to start in the majors anyway, but I assume he'll be with the MLB team in spring training and they can decide then.

He asked for and got his release from Mayaguez yesterday because of the travel (2 hours) and lack of at bats. It's unknown if he'll join another winter team or not.

 

[iayork]

He asked for and got his release from Mayaguez yesterday because of the travel (2 hours) and lack of at bats. It's unknown if he'll join another winter team or not.

Thanks, I hadn't seen that. Seems reasonable in that all the articles talking about his joining Mayaguez mentioned that the roster was overcrowded and he might not get many chances.

 

[ehaz]

So it has been reported that the Mariners and DiPoto are looking for a center fielder. Apparently they've talked to NY about Gardner and Rosenthal suggests they may look at JBJ. Taijuan Walker anyone? Apparently they indicate some willingness to trade James Paxton, maybe a Rusney for Paxton makes sense?

 

[BeantownIdaho]

I'm not saying this will happen, but if the Sox go out and get O'Day and Soria (interest in both) would that be enough to shore up the pen with what we already have?

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

I don't think Seattle is going to trade Walker. He's their equivalent of Xander--young, tremendously talented, a likely long-term centerpiece who just came into his own this year at 22. His season numbers don't look all that hot because he struggled early, but he was fine after the first couple of months (3.62 ERA/.646 OPS allowed over his last 20 starts). I was lucky enough to be at Safeco for his last start of the year, a 10-1 win over the Angels, and he absolutely dominated that tough lineup, sitting 96/touching 98, holding his velocity through seven full, throwing his curve and splitter for strikes and getting some helpless-looking whiffs on the splitter.

I don't think Walker's going anywhere, and I certainly don't think JBJ's gonna get him. Paxton is more likely (and of dubious appeal to the Sox, who are awash in pretty good young lefties).

A possibly crazy out-of-the-box thought: might the M's look to get younger and cheaper by dangling King Felix? How likely do people think that is, and how attractive a target would Hernandez be after a mild off year, at age 30 with a ton of mileage on his arm and four $25M+ seasons left on his deal?

 

[grimshaw]

A possibly crazy out-of-the-box thought: might the M's look to get younger and cheaper by dangling King Felix? How likely do people think that is, and how attractive a target would Hernandez be after a mild off year, at age 30 with a ton of mileage on his arm and four $25M+ seasons left on his deal?

I don't think it's that crazy for them to explore it if I'm the M's. The mileage part does scare me off, though. Since 1970 he's thrown the 4th most innings through his age 29 season of any pitcher behind Blyleven, Vida Blue, and Fernando. If he was just as good as ever last year, I probably wouldn't think about it, but he showed some cracks.

 

[jasail]

A possibly crazy out-of-the-box thought: might the M's look to get younger and cheaper by dangling King Felix? How likely do people think that is, and how attractive a target would Hernandez be after a mild off year, at age 30 with a ton of mileage on his arm and four $25M+ seasons left on his deal?

The contractual obligation alone, I am more than fine with. I think $25M for ages 30-33 is a pretty good deal for what Felix may bring to the table. I mean, last year was a down year and he still put up 200+ IP with a 3.72 FIP. It is the remaining acquisition cost that would sway me. I'm not certain what a package for Felix would look like. It likely wouldn't have to include Betts, Bogaerts or Swihart because he is no longer young or cost controlled, so that's a good thing. The question to me is, could they build something that didn't include Devers, Moncada or Espinoza? If yes, then I'd pull the trigger. If no, I'd have to closely evaluate the whole package.

 

[moondog80]

So it has been reported that the Mariners and DiPoto are looking for a center fielder. Apparently they've talked to NY about Gardner and Rosenthal suggests they may look at JBJ. Taijuan Walker anyone? Apparently they indicate some willingness to trade James Paxton, maybe a Rusney for Paxton makes sense?

So the Yanks will be signing Jason Heyward or Justin Upton?

 

[Snoop Soxy Dogg]

The contractual obligation alone, I am more than fine with. I think $25M for ages 30-33 is a pretty good deal for what Felix may bring to the table. I mean, last year was a down year and he still put up 200+ IP with a 3.72 FIP. It is the remaining acquisition cost that would sway me. I'm not certain what a package for Felix would look like. It likely wouldn't have to include Betts, Bogaerts or Swihart because he is no longer young or cost controlled, so that's a good thing. The question to me is, could they build something that didn't include Devers, Moncada or Espinoza? If yes, then I'd pull the trigger. If no, I'd have to closely evaluate the whole package.

I agree the Felix idea is intriguing. But to the bolded, this is King Felix we're talking about. At a contract AAV and length lower than what Price and possibly Greinke are going to get. Add the fact that it'd be hard for Dipoto to do this, having just gotten to Seattle. So you very much have to bowl the Ms over to do this. For some players, everybody is on the table. I think you revisit the Theo "get whoever you want" King Felix offer - I'd do Devers, Moncada, Espinosa + a Buchholz and flotsam to get King Felix here.

 

[nvalvo]

I agree the Felix idea is intriguing. But to the bolded, this is King Felix we're talking about. At a contract AAV and length lower than what Price and possibly Greinke are going to get. Add the fact that it'd be hard for Dipoto to do this, having just gotten to Seattle. So you very much have to bowl the Ms over to do this. For some players, everybody is on the table. I think you revisit the Theo "get whoever you want" King Felix offer - I'd do Devers, Moncada, Espinosa + a Buchholz and flotsam to get King Felix here.

I don't see how that deal improves the team. The difference between Felix and Buchholz is big, but is it 18 years of service time for top-50 prospects big?

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

I agree the Felix idea is intriguing. But to the bolded, this is King Felix we're talking about. At a contract AAV and length lower than what Price and possibly Greinke are going to get. Add the fact that it'd be hard for Dipoto to do this, having just gotten to Seattle. So you very much have to bowl the Ms over to do this. For some players, everybody is on the table. I think you revisit the Theo "get whoever you want" King Felix offer - I'd do Devers, Moncada, Espinosa + a Buchholz and flotsam to get King Felix here.

Just to be clear, you mean one of those three plus the other pieces you mention, right?

 

[Snoop Soxy Dogg]

Just to be clear, you mean one of those three plus the other pieces you mention, right?

I meant all of them. That does sound a bit excessive, on third thought. Maybe I exclude Buchholz+, but yes, I think I'd do 3 top-50 for 3 years of King Felix+the option to extend him.

 

[grimshaw]

I meant all of them. That does sound a bit excessive, on third thought. Maybe I exclude Buchholz+, but yes, I think I'd do 3 top-50 for 3 years of King Felix+the option to extend him.

That is absolutely insane. You maybe move two of those guys for Chris Sale or equivalent young ace who is on a ridiculously cheap contract through his prime years. You're only getting a little excess value for Felix' contract while he enters his decline. The money and values have to match.

 

[snowmanny]

You'd better get 24 year-old Miguel Cabrera with an extension attached for that package.

 

[Snoop Soxy Dogg]

All right, all right. I yield to your outrage.
I'd certainly make the move with much ambivalence, but I understand that it's a lot to give up for a 30-year old pitcher. Felix is a binky of mine, so that probably distorts the way I look at it.
To move beyond this particular pitcher though, this discussion, if anything highlights the challenge that the Sox are facing. I don't want to give out prospects either but how are people expecting to trade for a young, cost-controlled ace, the most valuable assets in the sport short of Mike Trout, without giving out 2 or 3 of the Sox top 5 prospects? I just don't see it.
It sounds like they're going to have to hold their nose and give a huge contract to Cueto (~$150m+) or Price ($200m+).

 

[soxhop411]

“@PeteAbe: Dombrowski described the pace at the GM Meetings being more like the Winter Meetings. Very busy with talks yesterday.”

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

All right, all right. I yield to your outrage.
I'd certainly make the move with much ambivalence, but I understand that it's a lot to give up for a 30-year old pitcher. Felix is a binky of mine, so that probably distorts the way I look at it.
To move beyond this particular pitcher though, this discussion, if anything highlights the challenge that the Sox are facing. I don't want to give out prospects either but how are people expecting to trade for a young, cost-controlled ace, the most valuable assets in the sport short of Mike Trout, without giving out 2 or 3 of the Sox top 5 prospects? I just don't see it.
It sounds like they're going to have to hold their nose and give a huge contract to Cueto (~$150m+) or Price ($200m+).

There's a big difference between trading 2-3 of the top 5 prospects in the system for a young, cost-controlled ace and trading those prospects for a 30-year old making market or near-market rate for the next three years. I don't know that anyone would object as much to giving up 2-3 top prospects for a Sonny Gray or Jacob deGrom or Noah Syndergaard as they would to getting Hernandez.

 

[ElcaballitoMVP]

If they could get Kimbrel for Marrero and a lower level prospect, DDski would be crazy not to pull the trigger on that, IMO. That's not a steep price to pay for a reliever like that.

And I doubt that offer would interest SD. However, Marrero and a decent pitching prospect could probably get you Joaquin Benoit. He's on the hook for about $7.5M this year, and DD has a history with him. He'd fit well into the 7th inning role with the ability to close when Koji needs time off. The Padres best SS prospect is still in AA, they got absolutely no production from the position this year, and they could probably make better use of that $7.5M.

 

[nvalvo]

All right, all right. I yield to your outrage.
I'd certainly make the move with much ambivalence, but I understand that it's a lot to give up for a 30-year old pitcher. Felix is a binky of mine, so that probably distorts the way I look at it.
To move beyond this particular pitcher though, this discussion, if anything highlights the challenge that the Sox are facing. I don't want to give out prospects either but how are people expecting to trade for a young, cost-controlled ace, the most valuable assets in the sport short of Mike Trout, without giving out 2 or 3 of the Sox top 5 prospects? I just don't see it.
It sounds like they're going to have to hold their nose and give a huge contract to Cueto (~$150m+) or Price ($200m+).

This is what I've been saying. If you have an ace with years of control, you're either a contender, or will feel you could be during those years. Possibly Oakland and Chicago are exceptions, but really: are the White Sox so much worse than the 2013 Mets?

But for the Sox, the 2018-23 seasons are still going to be played, and guys like Devers and Moncada have a credible chance to be the Ortiz and Pedroia of that future core. That's hard to deal.

The stars would have to align for one of the deals to make sense for both sides, especially if we could have e.g. Cueto for not so much more money than Felix.

 

[BaseballJones]

And I doubt that offer would interest SD. However, Marrero and a decent pitching prospect could probably get you Joaquin Benoit. He's on the hook for about $7.5M this year, and DD has a history with him. He'd fit well into the 7th inning role with the ability to close when Koji needs time off. The Padres best SS prospect is still in AA, they got absolutely no production from the position this year, and they could probably make better use of that $7.5M.

I agree, which is why I said if somehow they could swing that, they should absolutely pull the trigger. But I don't think it's gonna happen, like 99% of the ideas thrown around here.

 

[BeantownIdaho]

If we have to give up our top young kids for a top tier young pitcher, then why don't we just buy Price, Greinke or Cueto and keep all of them? Yeah Yeah Yeah...money shmoney. If the difference in keeping them is what boils down to paying some luxury tax then so be it.

 

[jimbobim]

I like how SD and Bos matchup. Preller should be in desperation mode to restock farm and get rid of cash obligations. Who hangs up first on this deal?

Bos - Margot Devers Marrero Castillo
SD- Kimbrel Benoit T Ross

Bullpen gets two late inning arms under contract for palatable sums. Ross fills in as a solid high upside number 2 in his arb years. SD does it because Margot is talented and relatively close. Marrero is SD's shortstop now depending on how much they can deal with his bat and Castillo can play CF in a spacious OF where he can better approach/discover his value. Devers may be the prize as he's a potential elite bat. Uncomfortable for the Sox but answers the Bullpen questions substantially and makes the rotation better while still needing a FA arm.

 

[lxt]

Why not sign both Cueto (est. $22 - 24.5) & Zimmermann (est. $20 - 22) for 5/$125 and then add O'Day (3/$6.5) and Sipp (3/$5) for the pen package up Barnes, Ross & Workman for Utility IF and OF and be done. Can trade Porcello ($12.5 - 14) for future young arms to save a little cash and remain under LT.

 

[JBJ_HOF]

I like how SD and Bos matchup. Preller should be in desperation mode to restock farm and get rid of cash obligations. Who hangs up first on this deal?

The Red Sox hang up because Ross isn't signed long term.

 

[Rovin Romine]

This is what I've been saying. If you have an ace with years of control, you're either a contender, or will feel you could be during those years. Possibly Oakland and Chicago are exceptions, but really: are the White Sox so much worse than the 2013 Mets?

But for the Sox, the 2018-23 seasons are still going to be played, and guys like Devers and Moncada have a credible chance to be the Ortiz and Pedroia of that future core. That's hard to deal.

The stars would have to align for one of the deals to make sense for both sides, especially if we could have e.g. Cueto for not so much more money than Felix.

Doesn't this just boil down to concentrating talent to go after championships? I mean, we have a stream of prospects arriving - some of them will work out and some won't. The ones that do will provide value in the terms of production for low cost. In addition to those you have to add value through FAs, trades, and prospect extensions. (Even assuming BOS will have a top third budget, it's far fetched to think they can assemble a long term competitive team through FA signings alone.) But does the steady trickle of prospects in work out to a competitive team, even with judicious FA augmentation? I think sometimes you have to try to bunch the talent up. Otherwise we'll be in a similar boat in 2023 - some brilliant young guys, some FAs, some prospects.

 

[lxt]

The contractual obligation alone, I am more than fine with. I think $25M for ages 30-33 is a pretty good deal for what Felix may bring to the table. I mean, last year was a down year and he still put up 200+ IP with a 3.72 FIP. It is the remaining acquisition cost that would sway me. I'm not certain what a package for Felix would look like. It likely wouldn't have to include Betts, Bogaerts or Swihart because he is no longer young or cost controlled, so that's a good thing. The question to me is, could they build something that didn't include Devers, Moncada or Espinoza? If yes, then I'd pull the trigger. If no, I'd have to closely evaluate the whole package.

Not for those pieces ... maybe someone a tad younger with a great deal of future possibilities I could be convinced but not for Felix.

Edits: As always poor grammar and damn near useless spelling abilities.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

I like how SD and Bos matchup. Preller should be in desperation mode to restock farm and get rid of cash obligations. Who hangs up first on this deal?

Bos - Margot Devers Marrero Castillo
SD- Kimbrel Benoit T Ross

I don't know who hangs up first, but whichever it is I suspect it happens fast. You want SD to give up its best starter and two best relievers without getting any pitching in return, and part of their motivation is supposed to be saving money, yet you're asking them to take on a guy with a $10M/yr contract for the next five years even though he hasn't really proven he can hold down a starting job yet.

On our side you're asking us to give up two overall top-25 prospects for (1) a solid closer at market rate for two years, (2) a 37-year-old decent setup guy, who may be declining (lowest K rate since 2008) at market rate for one year, and (3) the 2nd and 3rd arb years of a #2 starter. That doesn't seem like quite enough. This feels like a classic bad-for-both-teams deal.

 

[nvalvo]

Doesn't this just boil down to concentrating talent to go after championships? I mean, we have a stream of prospects arriving - some of them will work out and some won't. The ones that do will provide value in the terms of production for low cost. In addition to those you have to add value through FAs, trades, and prospect extensions. (Even assuming BOS will have a top third budget, it's far fetched to think they can assemble a long term competitive team through FA signings alone.) But does the steady trickle of prospects in work out to a competitive team, even with judicious FA augmentation? I think sometimes you have to try to bunch the talent up. Otherwise we'll be in a similar boat in 2023 - some brilliant young guys, some FAs, some prospects.

That's one way to look at it.

The other is that the pre-arb years of Devers, Moncada and Margot could add so much surplus value to the roster that we will be able to afford the second half of a six or seven year FA SP deal.

Obviously, player evaluation remains key, but I'm not sure I buy that the year when we're trying to figure out if Hanley and Panda can still play baseball is the year to mortgage the future for.

 

[soxhop411]

“@pgammo: Dombrowski seeing increased early hot-stove activity https: @projo From the day he arrived and moved into his hotel David has worked nonstop”

 

[E5 Yaz]

Why not sign both Cueto (est. $22 - 24.5) & Zimmermann (est. $20 - 22) for 5/$125 and then add O'Day (3/$6.5) and Sipp (3/$5) for the pen package up Barnes, Ross & Workman for Utility IF and OF and be done. Can trade Porcello ($12.5 - 14) for future young arms to save a little cash and remain under LT.

Did you even stop for a moment before hitting the Post Reply button and ask yourself whether something this ridiculous was worth putting out into the universe?