Actually, given the young makeup of the team, I think I'd prefer a Proven Veteran (TM) for that other OF spot.Buzzkill Pauley said:
Start, Sit, Trade: Play Along with Dave
- Thread starter nothumb
- Start date
True, but to be fair he is really only 1 year removed from hitting .303/.370/.685 v LHP.Buzzkill Pauley said:
One thing I found interesting is that they want a RH stick. I know they have Holt as the LH option, but I assumed JBJ would play everyday. Same with Betts. If there was a platoon, I had thought it would be w Castillo. Perhaps it's Holt/Castillo with RH filling in for JBJ/Betts, but a LH OF bat seems like a bigger need on this team
SoxFanForsyth said:
I look at it more as injury insurance for Castillo, who's been fairly brittle to date. And suckage insurance for JBJ, who's been totally bipolar.
I definitely don't see the preference for a bench RHH as precursor to platooning the BBC. More like, just balancing the bench for those NL games early in the season. If the Sox keep Shaw (L) and Holt (L), there's only space for one more guy in addition to the backup catcher.
May as well plan for that guy to bat righty.
Buzzkill Pauley said:
I similarly feel like the unequivocal support for the BBC outfield is being misconstrued. DD when talking about the three, and the OF situation in general re a RHH to backup was pretty nuanced.
He first said Betts is pretty different evaluation wise in comparison to Castillo and Bradley. Of course he's only stating the obvious there, but when talking about the RHH option he seemed to be indicating that the option could be relied upon pretty heavily due to the general significant uncertainty about Castillo and JBJ. Shane Victorino as we saw the last two years can't be that guy.
+1 on Brentz. RHH, plays all three OF spots at some level, doesn't warrant a full time role anymore (and if he's got anything between the ears, he'll be very motivated to show be belongs as a backup). Dirt cheap, already taking up a 40-man roster spot. I mean, either find something for him to do or get him off the roster.
jimbobim said:
Why should the stated focus be on obtaining a RH-hitting outfielder, then?
A RHH bench bat able to play the outfield would balance the bench nicely, both offensively and defensively; what it doesn't do, though, is necessarily provide the Sox with the "best" outfielder out there to hedge against underperformance by JBJ or Castillo.
Either or both of JBJ and Castillo might fail, but I'm not sure the offseason is the right time to address that risk. An in-season trade seems like a much better time to address the problem created if one or both of them crater.
SoxFanForsyth said:
Probably this is a signal that Holt won't be on the team. Can a pre-arb All Star with a career 94 OPS+ and significant positional flexibility bring back a good relief pitcher?
I can imagine a lot of NL teams being interested in him, as he can hit a little and makes so much sense for late-game double-switching. I like the guy, but I'm guessing he starts the season as either a Cardinal or a Met.
Buzzkill Pauley said:
Not to mention that if they're bringing in a guy they'd be comfortable putting into a starting role should one of JBJ or Castillo fail, it's a guy who's probably capable of landing a starting job somewhere else. Might take a bunch of convincing for a guy like that to sign here.
Instead, they go after a RHH bat-first corner outfielder who can sit 4-5 days a week and still be effective when he does see the field, and will be happy in the role...in other words, someone who won't pull a Jay Payton two months into the season.
Red(s)HawksFan said:
Are we locking either JBJ and Castillo into a starting role next year?
I mean, I know DD kind of intimated that, but I certainly think there is a non-negligible chance that one of those three isn't a starter (or maybe isn't even on the team) come April.
Red Sox Stats @redsoxstats 8m8 minutes ago
FWIW, the opening of that article states the Red Sox owners preference would be for Dombrowski to find an ace through a trade.
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Red Sox Stats @redsoxstats 20m20 minutes ago
In tomorrow's Globe. Someone come peel me off the floor. http://goo.gl/MncQ9U
Huh, of the pitchers available this offseason, Carrasco had the 5th highest bWAR in 2015. Who on the Sox came anywhere close? Nick C. needs to have Alex S. check his work for accuracy going forward.
Yeah, a case could be made that Carrasco's been the best pitcher in the AL the last two years, if he's "more of what they already have" then I've apparently missed a few transactions.
I'd be a bit wary of the late season shoulder issue - but every pitcher carries risks, and given his team-friendly contract, Carrasco's a guy teams should be willing to pay handsomely for if he's really available.
I'd be a bit wary of the late season shoulder issue - but every pitcher carries risks, and given his team-friendly contract, Carrasco's a guy teams should be willing to pay handsomely for if he's really available.
czar said:
I'd say if they're on the roster come Opening Day then yes, they're the starters. Unless one of them is moved, I don't see any reason not to operate on that assumption.
The team has a limited amount of money they can spend on acquisitions this winter even if we the fans don't know exactly what that limit is. Given that, the priority for this roster has to be pitching so I'm going with the notion that they'll spend significantly on pitching and not on a 4th outfielder.
Of course, if they do trade JBJ or Castillo, all bets are off.
jimbobim said:
Red Sox Stats @redsoxstats 8m8 minutes ago
FWIW, the opening of that article states the Red Sox owners preference would be for Dombrowski to find an ace through a trade.
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In tomorrow's Globe. Someone come peel me off the floor. http://goo.gl/MncQ9U
Mor
You'd think that Carrasco's combination of talent and team control (his extension could keep him under team control for the next five seasons) would make him all but untouchable, but apparently there is reason to think he might actually be available. There were multiple rumors at the deadline that a deal was all but complete that would have sent Carrasco to the Blue Jays. It didn't happen, but the seriousness of that trade talk makes it not surprising that Carrasco may now be on the block. Next year, Carrasco's salary will rise to $4.5 million - a pittance by today's SP standards - but Cleveland consistently maintains a very low salary structure, and even that low number would make him one of the highest paid players on the team. Because of this, the Indians would almost certainly feel more comfortable dealing Carrasco over Salazar (still in his pre-arbitration years). At the trade deadline there had been rumors that Cleveland had been trying to get any team interested in Carrasco to take on the Swisher and/or Bourn contracts( both eventually dealt to Atlanta) as well, something that makes you wonder if something similar will also be a part of any offseason Carrasco trade (this time by attaching him to Chris Johnson and his $17.5 million remaining albatross of a contract).
Cleveland and Boston really might match up well. Cleveland has an excess of starting pitching, and pretty big holes in their OF and at 3b. They also seem fairly committed to maintaining a low salary going forward - which leaves them in the position of having to periodically trade established stars to reinject their farm system with new talent . You'd have to think that both Devers and Margot would be very appealing to Cleveland, and if it would lower Carrasco's acquisition cost it seems unlikely that taking on the Johnson contract (even if this means cutting him soon after) would be much of a barrier for Boston. Would Devers, Margot and taking on Johnson get it done? Maybe not, but it might at the very least be a good starting point for further discussion..
I know it isn't presented this way, but I'd bet money that Cafardo is saying that on behalf of one of his sources in the front office. Which is a far more disturbing thought.67WasBest said:
What's a reasonable trade offer for Carrasco?
I for one, don't really buy that he's available, because I think Cleveland could contend sooner rather than later. That Kluber/Carrasco/Salazar rotation looks very good, if not quite Mets-ish, to me, and a Bauer breakout wouldn't surprise anyone. Lindor/Brantley/Kipnis isn't an awful core of a lineup. Unless they get somebody like Betts back, I'm not sure how a deal improves them.
If they're aiming for a 2017-8 window, there could be a fit. They could use outfield help, certainly.
I for one, don't really buy that he's available, because I think Cleveland could contend sooner rather than later. That Kluber/Carrasco/Salazar rotation looks very good, if not quite Mets-ish, to me, and a Bauer breakout wouldn't surprise anyone. Lindor/Brantley/Kipnis isn't an awful core of a lineup. Unless they get somebody like Betts back, I'm not sure how a deal improves them.
If they're aiming for a 2017-8 window, there could be a fit. They could use outfield help, certainly.
I'd take a chance on Trevor Bauer at a lower acquisition cost if they can acquire a top of the rotation guy through FA. Bauer has knockout stuff but hasn't put it together yet.
Maybe an offer that not only included top prospects (Margot and/or Devers) but also improved their OF and 3B situation next year (Bradley and/or Shaw).nvalvo said:
nvalvo said:
I'm not quite sure I get this. If DD is looking specifically for a RHH OF that would seem more like a signal that Holt will be on the team, as well as Shaw.
RedOctober3829 said:
Bauer suffers from Matsuzakaitis. Pretty good breaking balls, a bunch of other junk, and a fastball that he has trouble locating that hitters will just wait on.
Savin Hillbilly said:
I see what you're saying: Two RH/one LH OF starters in Betts, Castillo, and Bradley, LH Holt, RH OF.
With the stipulation that I have *no idea* what Holt's trade value would be, I think he might be more valuable to another team than as our 25th man.
I like the possible buzz around a Carrasco or Salazar deal. In any trade to get one of the Indians cost controlled aces, I would imagine that a CF would have to be going in Cleveland's direction. If ever there was a reasonable landing spot for Bradley, this would be it. I could see the Indians wanting Bradley, perhaps Margot and a youngish starter (Owens or Johnson) on the cusp of the majors. The Tribe fashion themselves as a potential contender, so trading one of their young starting pitchers without improving the current roster would seem to make no sense. They are under new leadership with Shapiro in Toronto, so perhaps the wheels might be greased for some transaction action by Lake Erie this winter. Bradley, Owens, Margot for either Salazar or Carrasco and perhaps a fungible lefty reliever (Crockett?). Would DD make a deal like that?
soxhop411 said:
Why?
Hill, a guy anyone with a heart would root for to succeed, has one 30-inning stretch of outstanding work and that automatically makes him an attractive option as a starter? Isn't he just as likely (or, even more likely) to come back to earth and/or get injured again?
Isn't this the equivalent of saying that Wes Chamberlain should be an attractive option as a starting outfielder?
Would think it starts with Devers and Margot and go from there, for Carrasco at least.
Beane said that big money clubs are going to be paying, not trading a 3-4 player haul for young starters... when the Sox start flashing Devers, Margot and Owens to Chicago, Oakland and Cleveland, we will see if his tune changes.
Why does the Herald have 3 full time Red Sox writers and 0 good ones?
Rob Bradford @bradfo 5m5 minutes ago
How will Red Sox kick off free agency? Remember names of Ryan Raburn, Rajai Davis http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/rob-bradford/2015/11/06/how-will-red-sox-kick-free-agency-remember-na … via @WEEI
How will Red Sox kick off free agency? Remember names of Ryan Raburn, Rajai Davis http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/rob-bradford/2015/11/06/how-will-red-sox-kick-free-agency-remember-na … via @WEEI
I think there are enough options out there that we can afford to start with what's clearly expendable (Miley, Margot, and Guerra for sure, maybe Holt as well depending on your plans for him in 2016). Leave Devers (and Moncada and Bradley and Betts and Bogaerts and Owens and the catchers) out of it unless the FA pitchers zoom out of our comfort zone and Miley/Margot/Guerra aren't enough to get us a guy we like.
Guys, I'm really excited for this off-season.
Guys, I'm really excited for this off-season.
GaryPeters71 said:
I can't believe Cleveland didn't pick up Raburn's 2016 team option for just $3MM , but they didn't.
My gut reaction is that he immediately jumps to #1 option for 4th OF.
If by "attractive" one means "will receive multiple inquiries" then he's attractive. Teams with some bad choices about how to structure their rotation for 2016 will consider a low-cost flier on him. But whether teams in better standing should consider him attractive, that's another story.
If Cameron's predictions are accurate, the Sox might be better off signing Gerardo Parra (over more expensive options like Gordan) if they end up trading one their starting OFs (you'd have to think that Cleveland need Bradley to be included in any Carrasco trade) this offseason. Especially if they can also sign Raburn, the two would make for a cost-effective platoon in LF that they wouldn't have to commit to long term.
Raburn either has a good year as a part-timer, or is beyond worthless, there's no middle ground with him.
Raburn's last 4 years, he's had between 201 to 277 PAs each year, with his OPS+ going 29, 151, 53, 149. He is really a boom or bust kind of guy, and it seems like we already have lots of guys who could be similarly volatile.
Davis is more consistent, he's probably going to have an OBP of .310 to .320. He's had an OPS of .687 or higher for 6 of the last 7 years.
Both those guys are old, Davis is 35 and Raburn turns 35 in April.
Raburn's last 4 years, he's had between 201 to 277 PAs each year, with his OPS+ going 29, 151, 53, 149. He is really a boom or bust kind of guy, and it seems like we already have lots of guys who could be similarly volatile.
Davis is more consistent, he's probably going to have an OBP of .310 to .320. He's had an OPS of .687 or higher for 6 of the last 7 years.
Both those guys are old, Davis is 35 and Raburn turns 35 in April.
I like Davis. Good speed and a little pop. Old enough that he won't likely be getting multi-year offers. Solid bench guy who could start for a while if needed.
I was thinking earlier today about the lineup and what you can feel comfortable expecting if you are in DD's shoes for next year and I came to the conclusion my worry list, being the most pessimistic, would be pretty long.
Feel Great About - Mookie X
Confident, but I'd perhaps like a more defense minded approach for the position- Swihart C
Jack of All trades that needs to play less than he has the last two years- Holt
Reasonably confident but realistically may experience decline/or miss time- Pedroia 2b and Ortiz DH
Depending on the day feel confident or iffy about- JBJ CF Rusney LF/RF
The contract twins- Sandoval and Hanley
This has been beaten to death by every scribe both locally and nationally , but offloading one of Sandoval and Hanley continues to get pushed. Mostly it's been pushing Hanley, but he doesn't have a position to sell while theoretically ( if not convincingly) Sandoval could be argued is not completely done as a 3b. Eno Sarris had an ESPN piece about how Pablo has bounced back from sucking before so at least he has a track record of doing so. With Sandoval the trade partners are also the entire league while Hanley is strictly the AL. Again for both the Sox will have to eat big money and package talent with which would be painful.
Essentially without even talking about how the pitching staff likely needs to add two high end pitchers , in addition to rebuilding the bullpen, the offense in a most pessimistic view has 2 pillars in Mookie and X and a plethora of options that are far from sure things after in addition to another year older Pedey and Ortiz.
Given the pitching needs, if I were DD and knowing the expectations next year are staying in contention throughout, at the very least, I would perhaps try to trade for/sign two more proven position player to bring the questionable iffy number down to 2 or 3 rather than 4 or 5 with the entire offensive load on Mookie, X,Ortiz,Pedroia, and the hope of Sandoval and Hanley bouncing back with something from JBJ and Castillo.
Feel Great About - Mookie X
Confident, but I'd perhaps like a more defense minded approach for the position- Swihart C
Jack of All trades that needs to play less than he has the last two years- Holt
Reasonably confident but realistically may experience decline/or miss time- Pedroia 2b and Ortiz DH
Depending on the day feel confident or iffy about- JBJ CF Rusney LF/RF
The contract twins- Sandoval and Hanley
This has been beaten to death by every scribe both locally and nationally , but offloading one of Sandoval and Hanley continues to get pushed. Mostly it's been pushing Hanley, but he doesn't have a position to sell while theoretically ( if not convincingly) Sandoval could be argued is not completely done as a 3b. Eno Sarris had an ESPN piece about how Pablo has bounced back from sucking before so at least he has a track record of doing so. With Sandoval the trade partners are also the entire league while Hanley is strictly the AL. Again for both the Sox will have to eat big money and package talent with which would be painful.
Essentially without even talking about how the pitching staff likely needs to add two high end pitchers , in addition to rebuilding the bullpen, the offense in a most pessimistic view has 2 pillars in Mookie and X and a plethora of options that are far from sure things after in addition to another year older Pedey and Ortiz.
Given the pitching needs, if I were DD and knowing the expectations next year are staying in contention throughout, at the very least, I would perhaps try to trade for/sign two more proven position player to bring the questionable iffy number down to 2 or 3 rather than 4 or 5 with the entire offensive load on Mookie, X,Ortiz,Pedroia, and the hope of Sandoval and Hanley bouncing back with something from JBJ and Castillo.
I was under the impression that Swihart was considered to have a high defensive ceiling. (For example, Soxprospects: "Future plus defense with plus athleticism.") Is it possible you're falling into Reverse Jeter Syndrome here? (I.e., presuming a guy has a so-so glove because he has a good bat?)
S
I don't think so. I'm aware that if Swihart continues to steadily develop he could reach that ceiling and therefore be the exceedingly rare and valuable plus offense plus defense combo at catcher. He was clearly rushed last year due to organizational need.
I guess it comes down to when you go from Vaz ,and to a lesser extent Hanigan, in the framing and overall defense department to Swihart it's a sizeable difference( top 30 in framing according to baseball prospectus with Swihart checking in at 83.) Now framing is only part of the defensive package as Sal Perez checks in at 76. Obviously, Swihart offers more offensive upside, but I think stealing strikes via framing is a pretty big game changer. Hanigan is injury prone and therefore preferable as a decent backup and Swihart is by default still the starter because who knows when Vaz will be ready after TJ (hasn't started catching again yet).
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1819124
How do you know the framing stats, or their translation into value, are at all accurate?
Frankly, I'm hoping we see the end of the home plate pure in the next negotiation. But it's a longshot of all long shots.
The bigger reason is that neither Hannigan nor Vazquez can be relied on to be healthy in April, and they have no other option in the organization. For 2"16, they need to keep all 3 so that we don't get 150 at bats from below replacement level players like sandy Leon and his ilk again.
First, I don't think you're reading the chart correctly, because you're looking at counting stats and comparing them like rate stats; you need to look at extra strikes per chance, not just extra strikes. Hanigan still is better than Swihart (35th vs 61st on a rate basis, according to Baseball Prospectus; 27th vs 56th according to StatCorner, which I mildly prefer for catcher framing) but the gap is smaller.
But then, second, once you move out of the top ten or so, the differences are not that spectacular. On a rate basis, StatCorner has Hanigan with about 1 strike per game more than Swihart (0.84 vs. -0.17). If the 2008 estimate is still accurate, each extra strike is worth about 0.13 extra runs. If each catcher plays half of the games, you've gained about 10 extra runs from Hanigan's framing. Certainly, that's very valuable, and it's unlikely that Swihart's bat made up the difference in 2015 as a whole (.712 OPS vs .664 for Hanigan), but it doesn't take much improvement from Swihart before that gap disappears.
In fact, if you discount Swihart's first half, which I think is more than fair, he has probably already caught up to Hanigan. He had a second-half OPS of .805 vs. Hanigan's second-half .649. I'm not going to do any calculations, but I'm guessing that 150 points of OPS will balance out 10 runs from framing, even if Swihart doesn't improve at all behind the plate.
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For what it's worth, I calculate that Swihart was -0.34 strikes per game compared to average over the whole season, but in the first half he was -0.56 and in the second he was -0.16, a significant improvement almost entirely built on better than league-average strike calls against right-handed batters. Hard to say what that will mean for next year, but it's an encouraging trend.
Even with his framing/defense woes, Swihart's second half was very strong. He posted a 1.4 fWAR in the second half, which was 5th in the MLB (min 165 PA).
He posted a 118 wrc+, albeit with a .391 BABIP. Either way, Swihart's value is derived from his offense, which projects to be significantly better than that of Vazquez or Hanigan. So, even if his framing is a good bit short of that of Vaz/Hanigan, give me the offensive player everyday.
He posted a 118 wrc+, albeit with a .391 BABIP. Either way, Swihart's value is derived from his offense, which projects to be significantly better than that of Vazquez or Hanigan. So, even if his framing is a good bit short of that of Vaz/Hanigan, give me the offensive player everyday.
Swihart has got to be off the table. Period.
You simply don't trade a cost-controlled, switch-hitting, offensive catcher. How many of those are there in the world? His ceiling is vaulted.
If, for some unfathomable reason, his catching prowess becomes a negative - you move him to 1B when Ramirez becomes the DH. How many catchers would even be considered for that? Posey, Perez, McCann, Martin? ($20M, $2M, $17M, $15M vs $500,000.)
Or, you assume he's going to suck.
You simply don't trade a cost-controlled, switch-hitting, offensive catcher. How many of those are there in the world? His ceiling is vaulted.
If, for some unfathomable reason, his catching prowess becomes a negative - you move him to 1B when Ramirez becomes the DH. How many catchers would even be considered for that? Posey, Perez, McCann, Martin? ($20M, $2M, $17M, $15M vs $500,000.)
Or, you assume he's going to suck.
Since we've got Mookie to be our CF, we can afford to trade JBJ. There's going to be some team out there that will be willing to give up a mint for him based on the flash of MVP-ness he showed this season.
I'm a tad concern about the talk of what it will take to bring Price on board. I know the number can be justified by one or two other recent signings. However, I'm squimish about spending 7 yrs/$210 million. I can't see Greinke coming here. I'm not sold on Cueto as the solution. So, what's the solution. Add someone like Iwakuma for a 3 - 4 year stint and see if Rodriguez is the ace of the future and that Owens and Johnson can step up and be solid #2s or 3s? Try the six man rotation that was used at the end of the season with the current group (Buchholz, Kelly, Miley, Procello, Rodriguez and Owens). Take a chance that Zimmermann is the ace we need? Go inexpensive and add Lackey and Iwakuma as one of the talking heads have suggested with the likes of Miley, Buchholz, Porcello and Rodriguez? Bite the bullet and sign Price for what he wants? Is Cueto the guy we need? Can Greinke survive in Boston? Can we get Price for 3 yrs/$100 million and allow Rodriguez, Owens and Johnson to come along?
What do you think about adding Darren O'Day and Tony Sipp to the pen to solidify it? Leave Chapman out of the equation, save the prospects and add these two with Uehara, Tawaza, Layne, Wright and Ross.
Is Sipp really that good? I feel like the HOU bullpen really overachieved this season (and it all regressed in ALDS Gm 4)
He's been really good for Houston the past two years, and has no real split.
Why the boo? Vazquez is a superior defensive catcher and moving Swihart around would keep his bat in the lineup more often
If he is not a catcher full-time, his value slips a lot. I like the tandem but it remains to be seen if CV has the same arm strength as he did before. They still have Hanigan around next year too so it does make sense to make him a "super utility" player for next year.