Sure, but I was more curious why soxhop hates the idea of catching vasquez ... if he's healthy
Start, Sit, Trade: Play Along with Dave
- Thread starter nothumb
- Start date
No I'm fine with the idea. I was posting the tweet from redsoxstats (giving him credit for finding it)and then trying to add quotes to my post but Gammons site does not play nice with iPhones. (It wouldn't let me copy the parts of the article relevant to this thread without deselecting the stuff I selected.
I am not a believer in Vazquez's bat. I think Swihart has a chance to be a vastly superior all-around player. I hate the idea of taking Swihart out from behind the plate, decreasing his value as a player. And since he had to get called up so early this year I don't like the idea of him using up service time on the bench or at unnatural positions. Just my opinion.
That's fine. I fall on the side of preferring a premiere defensive catcher -- provided a) vasquez's arm return to pre-TJ ability and b) he hits better than Sandy Leon. Given what's around him in the lineup, I think the Sox can live with Vasquez being the weak link in the lineup.
Swihart is a much superior hitter, as you said. And it remains to be seen whether his defensive development was hindered at all by being forced into action. With luck, and work, he improves. But at the the catcher position, I'll take the premium defender with a weak bat over the superior hitter who becomes a negative behind the plate.
But, of course, it's still too early to make definitive calls either way
Now, the Red Sox, for instance, would love to sign Greinke if owner John Henry would allow. Allard Baird drafted and signed him out of high school. Brian Bannister, the organization’s chief of pitching development, is one of his best friends. He would be an alpha dog leader, mentor and teacher for their young pitchers like Rick Porcello, Eduardo Rodriguez, Joe Kelly, Henry Owens, Brian Johnson and, eventually, Anderson Espinoza and Michael Kopech.
But they play in the American League. In fact, if you’re David Price, Jordan Zimmerman or any of the other top free agents pitchers, you look askew at what you face signing with the Red Sox, Yankees, Orioles or Blue Jays. It means you make 22-25 starts in Fenway Park, Yankee Stadium, the Rogers Centre or Camden Yards.
Thank you RO3829 ... good stuff.
My concern with Greinke is his ability to deal with the Boston media. Boston is not KC, Milwaukee or LA. The media while analyze him and his performance pitch by pitch and I'm not sure he is use to that level of scrutiny. Maybe with Brian he will be able to deal with it. Not sure I see Greinke as an alpha. He is a veteran but does he have the stuff to be the "head man on deck"? The AL East does not allow a pitcher to try and work things out over time ... it beats on you every month. Price has been there and done that ... he knows the division and has dealt with it. Not sure Cueto or Zommermann would fair better than Greinke against the division. I'm for signing Price all the way, it's hid price tag that concerns me and the possibility Ortiz is not ready to forgive.
But they play in the American League. In fact, if you’re David Price, Jordan Zimmerman or any of the other top free agents pitchers, you look askew at what you face signing with the Red Sox, Yankees, Orioles or Blue Jays. It means you make 22-25 starts in Fenway Park, Yankee Stadium, the Rogers Centre or Camden Yards.
Thank you RO3829 ... good stuff.
My concern with Greinke is his ability to deal with the Boston media. Boston is not KC, Milwaukee or LA. The media while analyze him and his performance pitch by pitch and I'm not sure he is use to that level of scrutiny. Maybe with Brian he will be able to deal with it. Not sure I see Greinke as an alpha. He is a veteran but does he have the stuff to be the "head man on deck"? The AL East does not allow a pitcher to try and work things out over time ... it beats on you every month. Price has been there and done that ... he knows the division and has dealt with it. Not sure Cueto or Zommermann would fair better than Greinke against the division. I'm for signing Price all the way, it's hid price tag that concerns me and the possibility Ortiz is not ready to forgive.
Greinke will be a good pitcher anywhere he goes. However, he's going to get paid as a guy that will put up a sub-2.00 era. If he signs with Boston, I suspect he'd put up an era in the high 2's or low 3's, which would make him terrific, but not quite so terrific given the astronomical salary he will command.
Are you saying he will put up a higher ERA in Boston simply because the run environment here is higher than most places, and he will be affected by that the same way everyone else is? Or are you saying that he will underperform here even relative to that difference? If the latter, why? If the former, why does that make him less valuable? If you allow 3 runs per nine innings in a context where it takes 4.5 runs to win a game, isn't that providing pretty much the same value as if you allow 2 runs per nine innings in a context where it takes 3 runs to win a game?
Giving 35 yo pitchers a 3-4 year deal is never the correct answer. And shorter deals at higher AAV is never a realistic option.
If you want an ace you have to pay for it. Price, Greinke, Cueto (in that order). Zimmermann is a solid consolation prize that I'd be fine with if they can't get one of those three and given the likely cost difference I could be talked into him over Cueto.
Two objectives; 1 get better at the top of the rotation; and 2 get deeper in the pen, preferably in late inning situations
Sign both Price and Greinke for $30M AAV deals. With $27M as the Red Sox reported "under LT" spending value, this would place them $33M over budget.
Trade Buchholz and Miley for the best young arms avaiable. By removing this $20M in salaries, they'd only be $13M over and will have repaired their primary problems.
Leave the lineup as it is, with Vazquez as catcher. Hanigan, Holt, Shaw and Swihart bench. Both Shaw and Swihart as 1B, 3B, RF and LF depth.
Price, Greinke, Porcello, Rodriguez, Kelly, with Owens, Johnson and Wright as depth
The pen would still have Koji closing, but the hope is one of the new acquisitions starts stepping up. DD would be lurking for a mid year acquisition, if not. He'd likely be ready to deal a catcher by then, possibly a starter. He'd still have the high value kids, and hopes that Cecchini, Craig and Brentz can restore their lost value.
Going through 2016 we could see Owens and Johnson pushing Kelly for the 5th rotation spot, with those failing added to the pen, or dealt for depth. Could also see a catcher dealt mid year once Vazquez injury is no longer a concern By 2017, we could find Margot, Benintendi and Moncada knocking on the door and freeing other "still in their prime" ballplayers to be dealt elsewhere. By 2018, Devers and Kopech could be doing the same. It seems the Sox would be dealing from some very strong positions as the next few years progress.
It all starts with locking down 400 quality innings from their 1 and 2 starters, then spinning some starter excess into bullpen gold. Do it Dave!
Sign both Price and Greinke for $30M AAV deals. With $27M as the Red Sox reported "under LT" spending value, this would place them $33M over budget.
Trade Buchholz and Miley for the best young arms avaiable. By removing this $20M in salaries, they'd only be $13M over and will have repaired their primary problems.
Leave the lineup as it is, with Vazquez as catcher. Hanigan, Holt, Shaw and Swihart bench. Both Shaw and Swihart as 1B, 3B, RF and LF depth.
Price, Greinke, Porcello, Rodriguez, Kelly, with Owens, Johnson and Wright as depth
The pen would still have Koji closing, but the hope is one of the new acquisitions starts stepping up. DD would be lurking for a mid year acquisition, if not. He'd likely be ready to deal a catcher by then, possibly a starter. He'd still have the high value kids, and hopes that Cecchini, Craig and Brentz can restore their lost value.
Going through 2016 we could see Owens and Johnson pushing Kelly for the 5th rotation spot, with those failing added to the pen, or dealt for depth. Could also see a catcher dealt mid year once Vazquez injury is no longer a concern By 2017, we could find Margot, Benintendi and Moncada knocking on the door and freeing other "still in their prime" ballplayers to be dealt elsewhere. By 2018, Devers and Kopech could be doing the same. It seems the Sox would be dealing from some very strong positions as the next few years progress.
It all starts with locking down 400 quality innings from their 1 and 2 starters, then spinning some starter excess into bullpen gold. Do it Dave!
So let me get this straight:
1) You want to tie up $60M a year for the next 5-6 years on adding two guys to the top of the starting rotation, one of whom has never pitched in the AL East--even though our rotation was about league-average last year, and ownership has always shown reluctance to sign even one deal like that;
2) You want to put our 24-year-old starting catcher, who entered 2015 as a consensus top-20 prospect and confirmed that status with a solid rookie season, on the bench as one of two corner utility guys.
These are impressively bad ideas.
I'm getting the impression that the Sox options for an "Ace" will be either Cueto or Zimmermann. I don't see Greinke leaving So. Cal. were he is comfortable and has huge parks to throw in ... LA or SF. I can see Price in Chicago with Maddon, the potential to win and being one of three top arms in what could be the best rotation in baseball. The Cubs have the money and have shown they are willing to spend.
I'm not a particular fan of either Cueto or Zimmermann but I think I'd lean toward Cueto because he has been exposed to the AL. There numbers are pretty close over last season but I think Cueto has shown at times that he can be one of the top 3 - 5 pitchers out there. Zimmermann can be steady and at times dominate but has not shown that he is in the top 10, at least to me.
Add O'Day and Sipp to the pen. They are both solid and Sipp adds another left to go with Layne.
That would give the Sox a rotation of Cueto/Zimmermann, Buchholz, Miley, Porcello & Rodriguez. Move Kelly to the pen. The pen would be made up of Uehara, O'Day, Sipp, Tazawa, Kelly, Layne & Wright.
Barnes, Workman and Ross Jr. can be used to add a utility IF and 4th OF.
None of the prospects need to be traded as FA fill the holes.
I'm not a particular fan of either Cueto or Zimmermann but I think I'd lean toward Cueto because he has been exposed to the AL. There numbers are pretty close over last season but I think Cueto has shown at times that he can be one of the top 3 - 5 pitchers out there. Zimmermann can be steady and at times dominate but has not shown that he is in the top 10, at least to me.
Add O'Day and Sipp to the pen. They are both solid and Sipp adds another left to go with Layne.
That would give the Sox a rotation of Cueto/Zimmermann, Buchholz, Miley, Porcello & Rodriguez. Move Kelly to the pen. The pen would be made up of Uehara, O'Day, Sipp, Tazawa, Kelly, Layne & Wright.
Barnes, Workman and Ross Jr. can be used to add a utility IF and 4th OF.
None of the prospects need to be traded as FA fill the holes.
Joel Sherman @Joelsherman1 1m1 minute ago
Hanley Ramirez is at GM Meetings with his agent, Adam Katz, to talk to #Redsox officials. Dombrowski calls "general business" (cont)
Joel Sherman @Joelsherman1 1m1 minute ago
Dombrowski said worth meeting because were in Fla. Says plan is still for Hanley to play 1b for #Redsox next year
Hanley Ramirez is at GM Meetings with his agent, Adam Katz, to talk to #Redsox officials. Dombrowski calls "general business" (cont)
Joel Sherman @Joelsherman1 1m1 minute ago
Dombrowski said worth meeting because were in Fla. Says plan is still for Hanley to play 1b for #Redsox next year
This sounds like pure bs. But hey it's been covered extensively how hard it'll be to move him.
Of course Dombrowski would say its “general business” even if it was not…..
According to Joel Sherman, Dombrowski confirms meeting set between Sox, Hanley and Hanley's agent. Dombrowski says nothing to see here, just general business since the GM meetings are in Florida and Hanley is there as well.
Bradfo breakdown had a couple interesting nuggets ...
Usually the whole deal reeks of a Major League Baseball-sponsored feeling out process.
This time around, however, it might be somewhat different. That's at least the vibe circulating through MLB executives.
There is a feeling that the combination of so many pitchers on the market, along with the anxiousness and willingness of a whole bunch of new general managers, things might pick up a bit faster than usual.
The Red Sox need to find a top of the rotation pitcher (not likely uncovered this early in the offseason), a bunch of relievers (some of whom might surface this week), and a fourth outfielder (a spot which might also define itself sooner rather than later).
- Dombrowski has used the GM meetings to strike fast when it came to rebuilding a bullpen. In 2010, when the get-together was in Orlando, the Tigers inked reliever Joaquin Benoit to a three-year, $16.5 million deal. This year's candidates to secure such a proactive deal: Darren O'Day and/or Ryan Madson.
The main Red Sox storyline in regards to Boras will center around whether or not he believes a Xander Bogaerts' extension is a possibility.
- All of the general managers are mandated to meet with the media for approximately 45 minutes, both Tuesday and Wednesday. While many team presidents don't attend the interview session, it is expected Dombrowski will be representing the Red Sox.
http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/rob-bradford/2015/11/09/primer-general-managers-meetings-gateway-2015
Usually the whole deal reeks of a Major League Baseball-sponsored feeling out process.
This time around, however, it might be somewhat different. That's at least the vibe circulating through MLB executives.
There is a feeling that the combination of so many pitchers on the market, along with the anxiousness and willingness of a whole bunch of new general managers, things might pick up a bit faster than usual.
The Red Sox need to find a top of the rotation pitcher (not likely uncovered this early in the offseason), a bunch of relievers (some of whom might surface this week), and a fourth outfielder (a spot which might also define itself sooner rather than later).
- Dombrowski has used the GM meetings to strike fast when it came to rebuilding a bullpen. In 2010, when the get-together was in Orlando, the Tigers inked reliever Joaquin Benoit to a three-year, $16.5 million deal. This year's candidates to secure such a proactive deal: Darren O'Day and/or Ryan Madson.
The main Red Sox storyline in regards to Boras will center around whether or not he believes a Xander Bogaerts' extension is a possibility.
- All of the general managers are mandated to meet with the media for approximately 45 minutes, both Tuesday and Wednesday. While many team presidents don't attend the interview session, it is expected Dombrowski will be representing the Red Sox.
http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/rob-bradford/2015/11/09/primer-general-managers-meetings-gateway-2015
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longtime lurker...new format makes posting easier.
This has probably been discussed, but i always wondered about the huge difference in perception between swihart and vazquez offensively. seems to be all about tools and not actual performance imo.
if we look at their performances only at the same age and level:
A, 20yrs
BS 378pa, 6.9bb%/18.0k%, .300babip/.262avg, .134iso, 91wrc+
CV 444pa, 9.7bb%/18.9k%, .316babip/.283avg, .222iso, 133wrc+
A+, 21
BS 422pa, 9.7bb%/14.9k%, .350babip/.298avg, .130iso, 121wrc+
CV 342pa, 11.7bb%/20.5k%, .326babip/.266avg, .130iso, 114wrc+
AA, 22
BS 380pa, 7.6bb%/17.1k%, .337babip/.300avg, .187iso , 131wrc+
CV 399pa, 11.8bb%/11.0k%, .316babip/.289avg, 105wrc+, 119wrc+
AAA, 22-23
BS 151pa, 5.3bb%/19.2k%, .354babip/.287avg, .076iso, 95wrc+
CV 288pa, 8.3bb%/18.8k%, .333babip/.275avg, .101iso, 96wrc+
MLB, 23
BS 309pa, 5.8bb%/24.9k%, .359babip/.274avg, .118iso, 91wrc+
(BS 1st 200pa, 4.5bb%/25.5k%, .348babip/.258avg, .089iso, 70wrc+)
CV 201pa, 9.5bb%/16.4k%, .283babip/.240avg, .069iso, 70wrc+
Swihart seems to hit for better average, Vazquez draws more walks and strikes out less. Doesn't seem to be a huge difference overall.
and Steamer projections are out for 2016:
Swihart: 86wrc+
Vazquez: 88wrc+
Is vazquez' bat underrated? Swihart's overrated? somewhere in between? or should we ignore the numbers?
If they prefer Vasquez, that's defensible, but they should probably trade Swihart if he isn't starting at C.
Vazquez hasn't shown the ability to hit for power in 5 years, since low-A, with none in AA, AAA or MLB. We will see how much he ends up walking in MLB, but I'll guess not much if that doesn't change. Swihart had a terrible season vs L as R, but that is where a bunch of his upper level minors power came from and I doubt he'll 65 wRC+ from that side again.
Or, ya know, keep him and use him at other positions and enjoy having two really good catchers which we don't even know if we have yet because hello, neither of them has had a full season in the majors and one of them is coming off Tommy John surgery.
Except that in that case you need to carry three catchers. Farrell has shown to be similar to Tito in that he won't pull the catcher, as witnessed by the 17 or 18 or whatever many innings He sent CV out there for last year in Houston.
You don't actually need to carry three catchers in order to keep one in at catcher the whole time. Sure, you're more likely to have both of them injured if they're playing, but that's a pretty small probability regardless.
And it speaks to another thing baseball should do...expand the rosters and have a taxi squad so that you can carry three catchers with a rule like football has for quarterbacks for both pitchers and catchers that allows someone from the taxi squad to play in an emergency.
Or at least change the rules to allow players who've been subbed for to re-enter games in certain circumstances, including injury and extra innings.
I don't know if there would really be enough playing time to go around for a third catcher to really be worth having a third-string C hanging out in the dugout. Backup catchers rarely seem to get more than 2 or 3 games a week as it is. It would be pretty tough to stay fresh only getting that much playing time, let alone less than that, especially for young, developing players.
Having 3 acceptable catchers (two of which are young and clearly talented) seems like one of those "good problems to have" if it can be said to be a problem at all. The Red Sox are in a great position if even just one of Vazquez or Swihart pans out. Catchers get injured often enough that it's tough to really have too much depth at C. I mean, just last season the Red Sox primary catcher was injured, his backup was out for several weeks, and the the 3rd string guy was predictably terrible, as most 3rd string guys are. Swihart was the 4th string catcher, and wound up catching half the team's games.
Having 3 acceptable catchers (two of which are young and clearly talented) seems like one of those "good problems to have" if it can be said to be a problem at all. The Red Sox are in a great position if even just one of Vazquez or Swihart pans out. Catchers get injured often enough that it's tough to really have too much depth at C. I mean, just last season the Red Sox primary catcher was injured, his backup was out for several weeks, and the the 3rd string guy was predictably terrible, as most 3rd string guys are. Swihart was the 4th string catcher, and wound up catching half the team's games.
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When asked about his perception of the initial few hours of the usually mundane general managers’ meetings, the Red Sox president of baseball operations noted that, “It’s actually been a busier first day than normal.”
Dombrowski went on to relay that he actually thought the Red Sox might be able to complete a trade, but the other party cooled off on the idea.
http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2015/11/09/gm-meetings-notes-talks-already-heating-up-for-dave-dombrowski-red-sox/
Dombrowski went on to relay that he actually thought the Red Sox might be able to complete a trade, but the other party cooled off on the idea.
http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2015/11/09/gm-meetings-notes-talks-already-heating-up-for-dave-dombrowski-red-sox/
A good backup C is essential- it's a key position, and only a couple of Cs started as many as 125 games last year I believe. But three Cs seems unworkable for the Sox, who are probably going to be trying out a lot of pitchers.
Seems pretty easy to me. Swihart's the starter, Hanigan backs him up. CV in AAA. If Christian pushes his way to the bigs, Hanigan will be a great trade chip.
Makes you wonder whether he wants to move quickly on things, instead of letting the market play out
Bob Nightengale @BNightengale 43s43 seconds ago
The #Redsox are expressing interest in free agent OF Chris Young
The #Redsox are expressing interest in free agent OF Chris Young
Why do we need a RH platoon partner in the outfield? Young would only work in LF defensively also at Fenway. He really isn't that good
It is a good question. The OF already has two RH hitters and the one lefty (JBJ) had reverse splits last year. Meanwhile the rest of the lineup is dominated by RH hitters. Really, the only player in this lineup who looks like he needs a RH hitting platoon partner is Panda. I suppose if they were going to trade one of the OFers and replace him with Gerardo Parra...
Offseason moves can't be looked at in a vacuum. If Dombrowski wants a RH hitting outfield component, it's possibly in conjunction with another move
Well right now the bench, outside backup catcher, is a leftie in holt and shaw. So a rh bat seems like a good idea despite the composition of the starting lineup.
Or, it could be as simple as the bench as currently constituted is a bit LHH heavy and the best and most direct way to address that is adding a RH hitting outfielder. No plans or expectations for platooning anyone. Just a simple 4th outfielder who will probably sit on the bench 4-5 games a week.
As for Young's (or whoever they end up signing) defense, would he really need to play all over the outfield given the versatility of the incumbent starters? All three of Betts, Castillo and Bradley can play anywhere in the outfield, making strong and versatile defense from the fourth outfielder far less of a necessity. When a starter sits for a game, you plug the 4th guy in where he hurts the team the least and shuffle the other two around as necessary. Not to mention they still have Holt around should there really be a concern about the defense when one of the starters has a day off.
Agreed. Their roster flexibility allows them to be more focused in filling out the bench. Getting a power-hitting lefty killer (even with weak defense) might be the best 4th OF fit.
I'm starting to think that Benintendi might be a really interesting trade chip. Very successful in big college, fast track to the majors, somewhat redundant for the Sox. I don't know what a package led by Benintendi, Devers, and Guerra would get you, but it seems like it would get some teams very interested.
I think there's still the rule where you can't trade someone within a year of being drafted.
He could be a PTBNL like Trea Turner was in the Washington-San Diego trade this past offseason.
After the Trea Turner situation, the MLB amended the rule so that a player can be traded the day after the World Series of the year they were drafted.
Edit to add a source:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/sports/wp/2015/05/01/mlb-union-amend-the-trea-turner-rule/
Edit to add a source:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/sports/wp/2015/05/01/mlb-union-amend-the-trea-turner-rule/
I disagree, though I understand your reasoning. I think Margot becomes expendable due to Benintendi because Margot is closer to the majors based on his minor league time already and is blocked by both Bradley and Betts. Benintendi becomes a longer term replacement for whichever one of the starting trio of JBJ/Betts/Castillo moves on or falls off.