Start, Sit, Trade: Play Along with Dave

[soxhop411]

So, he just turned down a long term deal to play in front of the Cuban community in Florida, but he'll sign such a deal with Boston why exactly?

Couldn’t it be due to who owns the team, and how he has treated players in the past?

Like this?
http://deadspin.com/5961520/the-marlins-specifically-promised-not-to-trade-jose-reyes-and-mark-buehrle-traded-jose-reyes-and-mark-buehrle

Or how Stanton, wasn’t eager to sign an extension until the owners gave him assurances? (which he will most likely break again?)

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Couldn’t it be due to who owns the team, and how he has treated players in the past?

Like this?
http://deadspin.com/5961520/the-marlins-specifically-promised-not-to-trade-jose-reyes-and-mark-buehrle-traded-jose-reyes-and-mark-buehrle

Or how Stanton, wasn’t eager to sign an extension until the owners gave him assurances? (which he will most likely break again?)

 
Why he would turn down an extension from the Marlins is extremely obvious.  Why he'd be willing to sign an extension with any team that traded for him is enough of a mystery that it would be foolish to assume it would be a given.  As long as he keeps pitching the way he has and stays healthy, he's in line for a monster deal on the open market at age 27.  It would probably take a lot more than a GM or an owner promising "we're committed to winning" for him to pass up that chance or take a discount.
 
On the other hand, if someone trades for him this winter, they have at least three years of his services and also have those three years to use to sell him on signing long term.  However, I think Fernandez is in the same category as Sonny Grey and Chris Sale as extreme long shot pipedreams to be traded anywhere, let alone to the Red Sox, in the next 12-24 months.

 

[soxhop411]

Why he would turn down an extension from the Marlins is extremely obvious.  Why he'd be willing to sign an extension with any team that traded for him is enough of a mystery that it would be foolish to assume it would be a given.  As long as he keeps pitching the way he has and stays healthy, he's in line for a monster deal on the open market at age 27.  It would probably take a lot more than a GM or an owner promising "we're committed to winning" for him to pass up that chance or take a discount.
 
On the other hand, if someone trades for him this winter, they have at least three years of his services and also have those three years to use to sell him on signing long term.  However, I think Fernandez is in the same category as Sonny Grey and Chris Sale as extreme long shot pipedreams to be traded anywhere, let alone to the Red Sox, in the next 12-24 months.

eh, I think he is the most “likely” to be traded of the three you mentioned, as MIA ownership is unpredictable (as seen by their fire sale less than a year after a huge offseason splash)

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

eh, I think he is the most “likely” to be traded of the three you mentioned, as MIA ownership is unpredictable (as seen by their fire sale less than a year after a huge offseason splash)

 
That firesale was predicated on dumping long expensive contracts (which were only signed to boost the product as they moved into the new park).  Jose Fernandez is not expensive at all.  The more appropriate comp in his case is Stanton, not when they dumped Reyes, Buerhle, and company.  Loria might be unpredictable in a lot of ways, but he's never really been in a rush to trade generational type talents because they might get expensive in the future.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

eh, I think he is the most likely to be traded of the three you mentioned, as MIA ownership is unpredictable (as seen by their fire sale less than a year after a huge offseason splash)

I agree here. Although, I wouldn't rule out Stanton on the block, Marlins have a history of pulling this stuff. JoFer would be my 1st 2nd 3rd and 5th trade options.

 

[Mike F]

I agree here. Although, I wouldn't rule out Stanton on the block, Marlins have a history of pulling this stuff. JoFer would be my 1st 2nd 3rd and 5th trade options.

Come on TB who's your 4th choice.

 

[Plympton91]

The Cardinals picking up the $11.5 million option on Jamie Garcia is pretty comparable to the decision the Red Sox face in picking up the option on Buchholz.  Seems to confirm what many have been saying about the going rate for an expected value of half a season of good pitching, with upside if you get a good health draw.

 

[OCD SS]

OCD SS, I was operating under the assumption that perhaps Fernandez wants to play for an organization that has a commitment to winning as opposed to the dysfunctional one where he currently is employed, but thanks for the reply.

 
That seems like a pretty big assumption. Even if the Marlins were cheap with their offer (which is likely), given who his agent is I think any team looking for an extension would need to expect to pay market rates.

 

[joe dokes]

 
That firesale was predicated on dumping long expensive contracts (which were only signed to boost the product as they moved into the new park).  Jose Fernandez is not expensive at all.  The more appropriate comp in his case is Stanton, not when they dumped Reyes, Buerhle, and company.  Loria might be unpredictable in a lot of ways, but he's never really been in a rush to trade generational type talents because they might get expensive in the future.

 
Might be the exception that proves the rule, but  he did move Cabrera.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

It's not inconceivable that a team trading for Fernandez could entice him to sign a 4 year deal, buying out one year of FA.  He's had major surgery, so the chance to lock-in big guaranteed money now, while still hitting FA early, might especially appeal to him.  Obviously, the Marlins could take that approach, too, but they might be low-balling him, or trying to lock him up for a much longer time, or both.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

 
Might be the exception that proves the rule, but  he did move Cabrera.

 
Cabrera was traded when he had two years of team control left and his arbitration number was $11.3M.  Fernandez has three years of team control left and in his first year of arbitration eligibility, is forecasted to get somewhere in the $2-3M range (per MLB Trade Rumors).  I don't think Cabrera is an exception that should raise anyone's hopes.
 
Edit to add: while it might not be indicative of anything given how many managers they've paid to stay home, but they just signed a new manager, one with a recent track record of success, to a four year deal.  Can't really see them hamstringing him right out of the gate by taking away one of his best pitchers when they can easily afford to keep him.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

 
Might be the exception that proves the rule, but  he did move Cabrera.

 
True, but the package he got in return was pretty splendid: two former top-10 overall picks, including a 20-year-old, five-tool, consensus top-10 prospect CF who had already played a little in the majors, plus a 22-year-old power lefthander who had been a consensus top-20 prospect the previous year and looked like he would be dominant as soon as he ironed out some command issues. Then a guy who looked at the time like he could become a decent defense-first catcher, and a pretty good late-blooming mid-minors RHP,. For the 2015-16 Sox this would be equivalent to something like Betts, Owens, Vazquez, and Light. Would we be comfortable making that deal for Fernandez?
 
It didn't work out because Maybin never quite realized his potential, and they lost patience with Miller. But at the time, a lot of people were saying the Marlins won that trade. It was hardly a dump; more like reloading.
 
Also, if I'm reading correctly, Cabrera was a year further into arb than Fernandez, so that comp will be more appropriate next winter than this one.

 

[soxhop411]

Rob Bradford ‏@bradfo  1m1 minute ago
Hot Stove Show with guest Dave Dombrowski, tonight at 9 on @WEEI. @IanMBrowne @jtomase

 

[moondog80]

 
True, but the package he got in return was pretty splendid: two former top-10 overall picks, including a 20-year-old, five-tool, consensus top-10 prospect CF who had already played a little in the majors, plus a 22-year-old power lefthander who had been a consensus top-20 prospect the previous year and looked like he would be dominant as soon as he ironed out some command issues. Then a guy who looked at the time like he could become a decent defense-first catcher, and a pretty good late-blooming mid-minors RHP,. For the 2015-16 Sox this would be equivalent to something like Betts, Owens, Vazquez, and Light. Would we be comfortable making that deal for Fernandez?
 
It didn't work out because Maybin never quite realized his potential, and they lost patience with Miller. But at the time, a lot of people were saying the Marlins won that trade. It was hardly a dump; more like reloading.
 
Also, if I'm reading correctly, Cabrera was a year further into arb than Fernandez, so that comp will be more appropriate next winter than this one.

I agree with everything you've said except the comparative package from the Red Sox. Betts is a legitimate very good MLB player on the verge of being a star; Maybin was a great prospect who had 53 PA in the majors of OPS+ 23. So it's more like Devers/Owens/Vazquez.

 

[benhogan]

 
True, but the package he got in return was pretty splendid: two former top-10 overall picks, including a 20-year-old, five-tool, consensus top-10 prospect CF who had already played a little in the majors, plus a 22-year-old power lefthander who had been a consensus top-20 prospect the previous year and looked like he would be dominant as soon as he ironed out some command issues. Then a guy who looked at the time like he could become a decent defense-first catcher, and a pretty good late-blooming mid-minors RHP,. For the 2015-16 Sox this would be equivalent to something like Betts, Owens, Vazquez, and Light. Would we be comfortable making that deal for Fernandez?
 
It didn't work out because Maybin never quite realized his potential, and they lost patience with Miller. But at the time, a lot of people were saying the Marlins won that trade. It was hardly a dump; more like reloading.
 
Also, if I'm reading correctly, Cabrera was a year further into arb than Fernandez, so that comp will be more appropriate next winter than this one.

sorry but Maybin was a prospect...there was no one in that deal, from Detroit, thats even remotely close to what Mookie Betts is right now.
 
Maybin's equivalent is something closer to Margot 
 
EDIT: sorry just saw the note above, didn't mean to pile on

 

[soxhop411]

Red Sox Stats ‏@redsoxstats  7m7 minutes ago
Dombrowski on EEI: Not going to tip our hand but we want the top of the rotation guy. Open to sign someone, open to trade for one. Costly.
 
 
Red Sox Stats ‏@redsoxstats  4m4 minutes ago
Dombrowski on EEI: BBC outfield can be a very dynamic together, project them all to be offensive players. No question our starting group.
 
Red Sox Stats ‏@redsoxstats  3m3 minutes ago
Dombrowski on EEI: Leaning towards adding a RHH as 4th outfielder.

 

[soxhop411]

Joon Lee ‏@iamjoonlee  3m3 minutes ago Ithaca, NY
Dombrowski on WEEI called Xander Bogaerts and Mookie Betts "backbones of the franchise" and said they would be in Boston for a long time.
 
Rob Bradford ‏@bradfo  2m2 minutes ago
Dombrowski says on Hot Stove Show that Matt Barnes will head into spring training as a reliever

 

[pjr]

Delete

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

I agree with everything you've said except the comparative package from the Red Sox. Betts is a legitimate very good MLB player on the verge of being a star; Maybin was a great prospect who had 53 PA in the majors of OPS+ 23. So it's more like Devers/Owens/Vazquez.

 
 

sorry but Maybin was a prospect...there was no one in that deal, from Detroit, thats even remotely close to what Mookie Betts is right now.
 
Maybin's equivalent is something closer to Margot 
 
EDIT: sorry just saw the note above, didn't mean to pile on

 
I chose Betts because frankly I don't think the Sox have a prospect that is on the level that Cameron Maybin was perceived to be in 2007. Moncada, maybe. Certainly not Devers or Margot. And while it's true that Maybin hadn't established himself yet the way Mookie has, he had gotten his feet wet and was presumed (despite the so-so performance in his brief 2007 stint) to be ready to contribute to a major league team immediately. This again makes him unlike either Margot or Devers.
 
Also, while it may be true that Maybin in December 2007 was a bit less valuable than Mookie is now, it's also true that Andrew Miller was probably more valuable than Owens. He certainly had been a more highly touted prospect--a #6 overall pick, a #10 (BA) or #17 (BP) prospect. He struggled more in his early going than Owens did this year, but he was still perceived at that point as having ace upside. 

 

[moondog80]

 
 
 
I chose Betts because frankly I don't think the Sox have a prospect that is on the level that Cameron Maybin was perceived to be in 2007. Moncada, maybe. Certainly not Devers or Margot. And while it's true that Maybin hadn't established himself yet the way Mookie has, he had gotten his feet wet and was presumed (despite the so-so performance in his brief 2007 stint) to be ready to contribute to a major league team immediately. This again makes him unlike either Margot or Devers.
 
Also, while it may be true that Maybin in December 2007 was a bit less valuable than Mookie is now, it's also true that Andrew Miller was probably more valuable than Owens. He certainly had been a more highly touted prospect--a #6 overall pick, a #10 (BA) or #17 (BP) prospect. He struggled more in his early going than Owens did this year, but he was still perceived at that point as having ace upside. 

 
 
At the start of the 2008 season, Maybin was the #6 prospect in BA and #10 in BP.  In Keith Law's midseason top 50 this year, Devers was #8, the exact average of Maybin's two ratings.  They're pretty darn similar in value.  Maybe a team might like 2008 Maybin more because he was closer to the majors, but that's splitting hairs.  But the real point is that both are way, way below Betts' current trade value -- I would not trade Betts alone for Fernandez, never mind Betts + Owens + Vazquez.
 
And yes, Miller > Owens in this analogy, but that's why Vazquez is there.  Devers ~ Maybin, Owens + Vazquez ~ Miller.  Approximately.  

 

[benhogan]

 
 
At the start of the 2008 season, Maybin was the #6 prospect in BA and #10 in BP.  In Keith Law's midseason top 50 this year, Devers was #8, the exact average of Maybin's two ratings.  They're pretty darn similar in value.  Maybe a team might like 2008 Maybin more because he was closer to the majors, but that's splitting hairs.  But the real point is that both are way, way below Betts' current trade value -- I would not trade Betts alone for Fernandez, never mind Betts + Owens + Vazquez.
 

Fangraphs agrees with you, and that was before an excellent post All-Star break performance from Mookie this season.
 
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2015-trade-value-the-full-list/

 

[Nite Vizhun UV]

Red Sox Stats ‏@redsoxstats 7m7 minutes ago
Dombrowski on EEI: Not going to tip our hand but we want the top of the rotation guy. Open to sign someone, open to trade for one. Costly.

Opportunity Knocks:



#CyYoung candidate Zack Greinke opts out of remaining 3 years, $71M to become free agent: https://t.co/xgogLLmh7W pic.twitter.com/l7Qt0GRtjg
— MLB (@MLB) November 4, 2015




@MLB
#CyYoung candidate Zack Greinke opts out of remaining 3 years, $71M to become free agent: http://atmlb.com/1XPsdGT
10:30 AM - 4 Nov 2015

 

[RedOctober3829]

From a Dave Cameron chat.
 
https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/661962567724769280

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

DD wants a RHH OF?  Lots of options out there, including old friend Jonny Gomes (if his option is declined).  I'd love someone like Franklin Gutierrez, but the trick is finding someone to accept a small, P/T role (who is still good enough to play more if necessary). 

 

[RedOctober3829]

I never thought about this angle when it comes to Zach Greinke.  Allard Baird and Brian Bannister were with him in Kansas City and could provide a comfort level in case of any trepidation of playing in Boston.  The Bannister angle is the most intriguing to me as they had a long personal relationship in KC when things were going bad for him personally.  I know this won't be the reason he comes to Boston as it almost always comes down to years and money but it can't hurt.
 

So, with the Red Sox very publicly stating finding a pitcher like Greinke this offseason is their top priority, the pitcher’s newfound life as a free agent should be a top priority Dave Dombrowski and Co.
The fly in the ointment is the perceived hesitation Greinke might have when it comes to playing in a place like Boston. Having battled a debilitating social anxiety disorder, the righty has been on record saying he couldn’t envision himself pitching in a place like New York. But what about Fenway Park?
Greinke did have Boston, along with New York, on his no-trade list, but that doesn’t necessarily mean much considering such a move is used for contract leverage more than anything.
There is seemingly a strong support system for the former Royal, Brewer and Dodger, with his former general manager Allard Baird serving as the Red Sox‘ senior vice president of player personnel, and Brian Bannister, the Sox’ director of pitching analysis and development, having a long history with the pitcher. Bannister and Greinke developed a close relationship while playing together in KC, having shared a common interest in advanced pitching metrics and analytics.
The question might come down to whom the Red Sox feel more comfortable unloading the coffers for: Greinke orDavid Price?
 

http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2015/11/04/now-question-can-be-asked-should-red-sox-prioritize-zack-greinke-or-david-price/

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

One of the supposed "advantages" to signing Greinke is the likelihood his next contract will be in the neighbourhood of five years or so .. which would be much easier to swallow one would think.
 
5/150  anyone? yea or nay ?
 
I say yes

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

DD wants a RHH OF?  Lots of options out there, including old friend Jonny Gomes (if his option is declined).  I'd love someone like Franklin Gutierrez, but the trick is finding someone to accept a small, P/T role (who is still good enough to play more if necessary). 

 
 
As was discussed elsewhere another 4th OF means Brock Holt is probably the backup SS as they can't carry both Marrero and Shaw. And the (SoSH) consensus seemed to favour Shaw over Marrero

 

[BaseballJones]

DD wants a RHH OF?  Lots of options out there, including old friend Jonny Gomes (if his option is declined).  I'd love someone like Franklin Gutierrez, but the trick is finding someone to accept a small, P/T role (who is still good enough to play more if necessary). 

 
If they're looking for a veteran RHH outfielder who will be a sub, here are a few options:
 
Corey Hart (might be totally kaput, but if healthy he still has some pop)
Jonny Gomes (if he's available)
Shane Victorino (that ship has sailed, I'm sure, but still....if he realizes he's nothing more than a sub at this point, he could be useful here again)
Chris Denorfia
Gerardo Parra (110 ops+ this past year, might vie for a starting spot somewhere; only 28 years old)
 
None of them are particularly great at this point, but again, all you're looking for is a 5th OF, a RH bat that could be somewhat useful.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Dave Cameron is Shane?

 

[BaseballJones]

SP - Greinke*, Clay, Miley, Porcello, Rodriguez
RP - Chapman*, Uehara, Barnes, Kelly, Taz, Ross, Layne
Minor league Arms - Johnson, Wright, Owens, Workman, Ramirez
 
C - Swihart
1b - Hanley
2b - Pedroia
3b - Sandoval
SS - Bogaerts
LF - Castillo
CF - Betts
RF - Bradley
DH - Ortiz
Bench - Hanigan, Holt, Shaw, Parra/Gomes
Minor league Bats - Moncada, Devers, Margot, Vazquez, Benintendi, Guerra, Marrero, Travis, Chavis, Craig
 
Only need to sign 1 free agent:  Greinke.  Chapman would come in a trade, so to get him, we're talking about some of those minor league arms and bats not being with the club.  And clearly this would put them over the luxury tax.  But you'd only have to make two off-season moves and fill in with what you've got.  This team would be fantastic, with plenty of depth and flexibility in pretty much every area.  Solid offensively and defensively.  Excellent rotation.  And lots of power arms in the bullpen.  

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

I would quibble on Chapman though - he's basically a rental at this point - I'd prefer Kimbrel.  But I suppose it all depends on the prospect price.

 

[Al Zarilla]

SP - Greinke*, Clay, Miley, Porcello, Rodriguez
RP - Chapman*, Uehara, Barnes, Kelly, Taz, Ross, Layne
Minor league Arms - Johnson, Wright, Owens, Workman, Ramirez
 
C - Swihart
1b - Hanley
2b - Pedroia
3b - Sandoval
SS - Bogaerts
LF - Castillo
CF - Betts
RF - Bradley
DH - Ortiz
Bench - Hanigan, Holt, Shaw, Parra/Gomes
Minor league Bats - Moncada, Devers, Margot, Vazquez, Benintendi, Guerra, Marrero, Travis, Chavis, Craig
 
Only need to sign 1 free agent:  Greinke.  Chapman would come in a trade, so to get him, we're talking about some of those minor league arms and bats not being with the club.  And clearly this would put them over the luxury tax.  But you'd only have to make two off-season moves and fill in with what you've got.  This team would be fantastic, with plenty of depth and flexibility in pretty much every area.  Solid offensively and defensively.  Excellent rotation.  And lots of power arms in the bullpen.  

Guess that's how the infield will start off. So much for a great infield defense, unless Pablo (said in a condescending tone in my head because of the shape he was in last year) loses 30 - 40 pounds. If so, and Hanley stays healthy, we actually could be pretty good on the infield. I'm going with Hanley can play first OK until he proves otherwise. 

 

[67WasBest]

Nice little consolidated cheat sheet for looking at all starter options found here
 
Constructed by Red Sox Stats

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Guess that's how the infield will start off. So much for a great infield defense, unless Pablo (said in a condescending tone in my head because of the shape he was in last year) loses 30 - 40 pounds. If so, and Hanley stays healthy, we actually could be pretty good on the infield. I'm going with Hanley can play first OK until he proves otherwise. 

It is great infield defense up the middle.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

 
 
As was discussed elsewhere another 4th OF means Brock Holt is probably the backup SS as they can't carry both Marrero and Shaw. And the (SoSH) consensus seemed to favour Shaw over Marrero

 
I read this as saying Holt is definitely on the market - at the peak of his value.

 

[MikeM]

One of the supposed "advantages" to signing Greinke is the likelihood his next contract will be in the neighbourhood of five years or so .. which would be much easier to swallow one would think.
 
5/150  anyone? yea or nay ?
 
I say yes

 
Greinke is coming off a 9.3 WAR/1.66 ERA season. Topping out the winning bid potential there at 5/150 is really just trying to put a slanted in our favor rationale on a situation that's likely not going to play out in a rational setting.  
 
Personally, I see Greinke being a complete non-factor as an option here unless LA ends up switching gears and target priority over to the David Price sweepstakes. Given either way, and even with an increased willingness out of Henry to spend big on a free agent starter, i simply can't us making the jump all the way to outbidding LA on a target.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

As a piece to a deal for a top SP, I'd have no problem including Holt, a guy teams might love for his cheap versatility (especially teams with multiple holes and/or payroll restrictions).  Shaw and Marrero give us our own roster flexibility.
 
And I agree, MikeM.  If the Dodgers want to keep Greinke, they will, unless he really wants out for some undisclosed reason.  They'll pay whatever necessary ransom it takes...

 

[ArgentinaSOXfan]

 
If they're looking for a veteran RHH outfielder who will be a sub, here are a few options:
 
Corey Hart (might be totally kaput, but if healthy he still has some pop)
Jonny Gomes (if he's available)
Shane Victorino (that ship has sailed, I'm sure, but still....if he realizes he's nothing more than a sub at this point, he could be useful here again)
Chris Denorfia
Gerardo Parra (110 ops+ this past year, might vie for a starting spot somewhere; only 28 years old)
 
None of them are particularly great at this point, but again, all you're looking for is a 5th OF, a RH bat that could be somewhat useful.

 
 
Chris Young, former Yankee? 

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

 
If they're looking for a veteran RHH outfielder who will be a sub, here are a few options:
 
Corey Hart (might be totally kaput, but if healthy he still has some pop)
Jonny Gomes (if he's available)
Shane Victorino (that ship has sailed, I'm sure, but still....if he realizes he's nothing more than a sub at this point, he could be useful here again)
Chris Denorfia
Gerardo Parra (110 ops+ this past year, might vie for a starting spot somewhere; only 28 years old)
 
None of them are particularly great at this point, but again, all you're looking for is a 5th OF, a RH bat that could be somewhat useful.

Victorino if the attitude is right and he accepts being the 4th outfielder is easily the best option out of the bunch. Hacksaw has some merit too offensively against lefties. Parra will get a starting spot in a place like Baltimore or Philly.

 

[BaseballJones]

 
 
Chris Young, former Yankee? 
 

Victorino if the attitude is right and he accepts being the 4th outfielder is easily the best option out of the bunch. Hacksaw has some merit too offensively against lefties. Parra will get a starting spot in a place like Baltimore or Philly.

 
I hadn't thought of Young, but he might be ok.  I think this past year was a bit of surprise, considering his past few years' worth of performance.  But he's only 31 and has some usefulness.
 
Victorino I think makes a lot of sense.  Been here, knows the drill.  Excellent defensively.  

 

[Snoop Soxy Dogg]

Victorino if the attitude is right and he accepts being the 4th outfielder is easily the best option out of the bunch. Hacksaw has some merit too offensively against lefties. Parra will get a starting spot in a place like Baltimore or Philly.

 
Victorino does make sense. Only concern there is Farrell, his propensity to "respect" veterans, and his apparent disdain for JBJ/Rusney (at least last year - maybe that doesn't translate). The minute one of those 2 struggles a bit, they may find themselves on the bench or in Pawtucket so Vic can play. Though it's a new GM, so maybe Farrell adjusts a bit on that.

 

[BaseballJones]

Good point, Snoop.  I think DDski's words the other day, that Castillo, Betts, and Bradley are the starting OF (if I correctly recall him saying that), may tie JF's hands a little.  The manager certainly needs freedom to make game-day decisions, but I would hope that the GM gives the framework for that.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

I'm curious on what grounds you all think that Shane Victorino will magically turn from toast back into bread if we sign him for next year. He'll be 35, it will have been three years since the last time he was good, and he's not even a lefty-masher any more. Same goes for Gomes, who by the way does not "still have some pop" unless you define "pop" as "more power than Juan Pierre"--his ISO over the past two years is .112.
 
I love both those guys, they've had fine careers and I'll never forget what they did for us in 2013, but it's probably time for both of them to retire, and if some team wants to tie up a few million and a roster spot seeing if one of them can somehow come up with an Indian-summer year, I hope it's not the Sox.
 
Really, if we can't do better than the guys (other than Parra and maybe Denorfia) on BaseballJones' list, we might as well promote Brentz and at least get sub-replacement-level play for the league minimum rather than paying a few million bucks for it.

 

[KillerBs]

 
Victorino does make sense. Only concern there is Farrell, his propensity to "respect" veterans, and his apparent disdain for JBJ/Rusney (at least last year - maybe that doesn't translate). The minute one of those 2 struggles a bit, they may find themselves on the bench or in Pawtucket so Vic can play. Though it's a new GM, so maybe Farrell adjusts a bit on that.

 
Victorino, with his 67 OPS+ in 200 PAs this year, does not make sense largely because we are looking for a good player who can step in and play for extended periods at close to or at league average in the not completely unlikely event that Rusney or JBJ come up well short. It is a more a 3.5 OFer we are looking for then a true 4.
 
And, on top of it, I agree Farrell cannot be trusted to staple Victorino's ass to the bench, where it would belong if he was brought back, which he diefintely should not be, nws his 2013 heroics.
 
Marlon Byrd, Nori Aoki, David Murphy, Franklin Gutierrez, Chris Young, Steve Pearce, Brandon Moss, Chris Denorfia all seem like much better options, though obviously more expensive.

 

[moondog80]

Vic has been 263/333/372 vs LHP the past two years, which isn't awful in this era.  Plus his D appears to still be adequate, and there's the leadership factor, assuming he would accept his role.  I think he may still have something to offer, the bigger deal is that JBJ's platoon split reversed itself last year so there may be no path to even semi-regular AB here.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

The "leadership factor" is icing. Its value depends on there being a cake. I think an unsentimental look at the past two years says there is no more cake with Victorino.

Also, .263/.333/.372 *is* awful when it's the good side of a platoon split.

 

[Devizier]

Fangraphs crowd-sourced Greinke's expected contract at 6 years / $156 million.
 
For the record, they had Scherzer at 7 years / $168 million and Lester at 6 years / $132 million last year.
 
So you could argue that the projections have been relatively precise, but inaccurate -- if you make an upward adjustment of ~20% the crowd-sourced contract predictions seem reasonable (for the top end contracts, at least). That means a reasonable expectation for Greinke is ~6 years / $190 million.

 

[OCD SS]

FWIW Dave Cameron weighed in on the contract crowd sourcing project in the latest podcast, saying that the crowd has seemed to be low by about 10 - 20%, so right in line with your sense of things as well.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Vic has been 263/333/372 vs LHP the past two years, which isn't awful in this era.  Plus his D appears to still be adequate, and there's the leadership factor, assuming he would accept his role.  I think he may still have something to offer, the bigger deal is that JBJ's platoon split reversed itself last year so there may be no path to even semi-regular AB here.

 
Defense is largely inconsequential when the starters are JBJ, Castillo and Betts.  The fourth outfielder Dombrowski is after should be able to play defense adequately but the priority is clearly that he can hit.  I think the profile is a RHH version of 2012-2013 Daniel Nava (note that's not the RHH Nava, but his overall production).

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

 
Defense is largely inconsequential when the starters are JBJ, Castillo and Betts.  The fourth outfielder Dombrowski is after should be able to play defense adequately but the priority is clearly that he can hit.  I think the profile is a RHH version of 2012-2013 Daniel Nava (note that's not the RHH Nava, but his overall production).

 
It's a time like this when the Sox have to wish they had a prospect like Bryce Brentz in the system.
 
Oh, wait.
 
I mean, a Bryce Brentz who hadn't completely fallen off the prospect map since 2012 through stupid personal decisions and untimely injuries.