Sports Cards Mania

Bergs

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SoSH Member
Jul 22, 2005
18,902
In the midst of cleaning out my home before moving, I found a bunch of 1968 baseball cards in a cool green team locker. Included are a Nolan Ryan rookie (in a hard sleeve amazingly), the full All Star teams with jigsaw puzzles of Yaz and Orlando Cepeda on the back (interestingly, Cepeda is holding a Brock bat in his picture), the 1968 T Superstars, the HR, BA, and RBI leaders for both leagues, a Clemente, and an Aaron. I also found World Series tickets from 2013 and 1986, as well as a baseball signed by the 1935 Red Sox. Obviously, nothing is graded.

I am going to live the nomad life for the next year plus (a geriatric Endless Summer riding waves all over the world), and would like to get rid of these quickly. I'll be in Mexico in just over 2 weeks! Any thoughts from the experts?

Below is what I need for my Sox team set. 1968 is one of only 3 sets from 1960-1980 I need more than 10 of. Hit me up if you have any of those you wanna get rid of (sharp corners, decent centering), and we can see if we can work something out. I'll certainly pay closer to current value than places where you'd unload the whole kit and kaboodle..

2 American League 1967 Batting Leaders (Carl Yastrzemski / Frank Robinson / Al Kaline) LL
6 American League 1967 Home Run Leaders (Carl Yastrzemski / Harmon Killebrew / Frank Howard) LL
10 American League 1967 Pitching Leaders (Jim Lonborg / Earl Wilson / Dean Chance) LL
12 American League 1967 Strikeout Leaders (Jim Lonborg / Sam McDowell / Dean Chance) LL
61 Reggie Smith ASR
155 World Series Game #5 - Lonborg Wins Again! WS
156 World Series Game #6 - Petrocelli Socks Two Homers WS
167 Elston Howard
189 Bill Landis RC
192 3rd Series Checklist 197-283 (Carl Yastrzemski) CL (any of 4 variants)
331 Dan Osinski
566 Ken Harrelson

Edit: I play the "complete" game when it comes to team sets. This is really screwing me with a couple of League Leaders cards I've had to get with Mantle on them (Thanks so much, Pete Runnels and Dick Stewart), and more notably with Red Sox legend Jim Gosger's rookie card (a '63 joint that happens to double as Willie Stargell's rookie card).
 
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Frisbetarian

♫ ♫ ♫ ♫ ♫ ♫
Dope
Dec 3, 2003
5,048
Off the beaten track
Below is what I need for my Sox team set. 1968 is one of only 3 sets from 1960-1980 I need more than 10 of. Hit me up if you have any of those you wanna get rid of (sharp corners, decent centering), and we can see if we can work something out. I'll certainly pay closer to current value than places where you'd unload the whole kit and kaboodle..

2 American League 1967 Batting Leaders (Carl Yastrzemski / Frank Robinson / Al Kaline) LL
6 American League 1967 Home Run Leaders (Carl Yastrzemski / Harmon Killebrew / Frank Howard) LL
10 American League 1967 Pitching Leaders (Jim Lonborg / Earl Wilson / Dean Chance) LL
12 American League 1967 Strikeout Leaders (Jim Lonborg / Sam McDowell / Dean Chance) LL
61 Reggie Smith ASR
155 World Series Game #5 - Lonborg Wins Again! WS
156 World Series Game #6 - Petrocelli Socks Two Homers WS
167 Elston Howard
189 Bill Landis RC
192 3rd Series Checklist 197-283 (Carl Yastrzemski) CL (any of 4 variants)
331 Dan Osinski
566 Ken Harrelson

Edit: I play the "complete" game when it comes to team sets. This is really screwing me with a couple of League Leaders cards I've had to get with Mantle on them (Thanks so much, Pete Runnels and Dick Stewart), and more notably with Red Sox legend Jim Gosger's rookie card (a '63 joint that happens to double as Willie Stargell's rookie card).
I have half of those, but cannot vouch for their condition. I can send you pictures if you want.
 

Deathofthebambino

Drive Carefully
SoSH Member
Apr 12, 2005
38,453
Saw some Prizm Basketball in the wild, grabbed a hanger pack and then choked when it rang up at $22. Jeez. That's nearly the cost of a blaster of Topps product at other retailers. With that said the basketball card market is kind of wild and the pack itself was pretty good: Kuminga Rookie Variation, a couple decent base rookies (Jalen Suggs, Josh Giddey), Keon Johnson Retail Prizm, Duncan Silver, Ibaka Green: but man I can see how dropping over $20 on a pack of that would get real depressing real quick with the player mix.

Skybox Metal Champions is a lot of fun. I miss Upper Deck having licenses though. A lot of them just look really weird in exercise clothes. Great insert design and the retro inserts brought me back
Be very kind to those base rookies from Prizm. I had thousands of base rookies from 2016-2019 or so that I thought were worth next to nothing (they were when I bought them). I think both Giddey and Suggs are selling for around $5 each right now, but that was the same around this time for Tatum, Doncic, Trae, etc. when they first hit the market. Within a couple of years, those same ungraded base rookies were selling for $100-$300 each. I think Doncic ungraded is still selling north of $100 each.

Now, I have to find a box of about 5,000 cards from those years that I have no idea where I put them.
 

Fishercat

Svelte and sexy!
SoSH Member
May 18, 2007
7,406
Manchester, N.H.
Be very kind to those base rookies from Prizm. I had thousands of base rookies from 2016-2019 or so that I thought were worth next to nothing (they were when I bought them). I think both Giddey and Suggs are selling for around $5 each right now, but that was the same around this time for Tatum, Doncic, Trae, etc. when they first hit the market. Within a couple of years, those same ungraded base rookies were selling for $100-$300 each. I think Doncic ungraded is still selling north of $100 each.

Now, I have to find a box of about 5,000 cards from those years that I have no idea where I put them.
They are sleeved and boxed for sure. I can't see myself spending enough on it to get any serious impact but it seems like Hangers were relatively loaded for all and maybe it'll appreciate a bit.

A couple things from this weekend:

An interesting higher end controversy of sorts broke out this weekend. Someone has done the math on Backyard Breaks, a very prominent breaker with some real Panini connections on getting four specific very high end "best card in the set" level hits. Others (TripleCrown24) have done similar math to similar results

Tweet / Twitter

There are obviously some really huge caveats on this - namely that they are looking for four specific hits. People would argue, probably somewhat rightfully, that Panini releases upwards of 100 products every year - picking four specific hits could implicate nearly any breaker in saying that the odds of getting "a, b, c, and d" are astronomical but getting 4 of the Top 100 hits may not be that weird given the volume BYB opens. It just happens that these four hits are probably the top handful of cards Panini will put out this year - the Warriors and LeBron Triple Logomans, the Cade Cunningham 1/1 from Prizm, and the NT Cade Cunningham Logoman. The odds of them getting those four cards specifically, or even two or three of them with the volume they open, is particularly improbable but it's interesting and another decent reason to side eye ripping new wax to try and hunt anything too huge. Given the rise of Whatnot and the associations between these prolific breakers, that platform, and Panini...it's a bit eye opening.

Unrelated, I also went to my first card show in about 25 years or so...it was fun but it sure felt different than it used to be. I remember going as a kid and there were usually a good handful of dealers with boxes of loose, contemporary packs kind of like a traveling hobby store - a great way to grab a smattering of packs in addition to singles or memorabilia or whatever. Over the 50 or so tables a small handful had retail blasters and that was it. I did find some decent low end older cards at okay prices (and a fun sheet of uncut Chrome Football from the late 90s pretty heavily discounted due to damage on the best card) but a ton of high end stuff that wasn't moving and some truly absurd pricing on a lot of tables. It felt like some dealers hadn't adjusted off of 2020 pricing or don't think people will look things up (bought one card for $11 off Ebay that they had listed for 40...). I will say I thought that there were at least a decent number of tables where kids could pick up some fun cards and have a good day without breaking the bank so that was nice too - good variety (Pokemon, Wrestling, Hockey, in addition to the usual - basketball was light funny enough as was vintage anything).
 

ElcaballitoMVP

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 19, 2008
3,813
They are sleeved and boxed for sure. I can't see myself spending enough on it to get any serious impact but it seems like Hangers were relatively loaded for all and maybe it'll appreciate a bit.

A couple things from this weekend:

An interesting higher end controversy of sorts broke out this weekend. Someone has done the math on Backyard Breaks, a very prominent breaker with some real Panini connections on getting four specific very high end "best card in the set" level hits. Others (TripleCrown24) have done similar math to similar results

Tweet / Twitter

There are obviously some really huge caveats on this - namely that they are looking for four specific hits. People would argue, probably somewhat rightfully, that Panini releases upwards of 100 products every year - picking four specific hits could implicate nearly any breaker in saying that the odds of getting "a, b, c, and d" are astronomical but getting 4 of the Top 100 hits may not be that weird given the volume BYB opens. It just happens that these four hits are probably the top handful of cards Panini will put out this year - the Warriors and LeBron Triple Logomans, the Cade Cunningham 1/1 from Prizm, and the NT Cade Cunningham Logoman. The odds of them getting those four cards specifically, or even two or three of them with the volume they open, is particularly improbable but it's interesting and another decent reason to side eye ripping new wax to try and hunt anything too huge. Given the rise of Whatnot and the associations between these prolific breakers, that platform, and Panini...it's a bit eye opening.

Unrelated, I also went to my first card show in about 25 years or so...it was fun but it sure felt different than it used to be. I remember going as a kid and there were usually a good handful of dealers with boxes of loose, contemporary packs kind of like a traveling hobby store - a great way to grab a smattering of packs in addition to singles or memorabilia or whatever. Over the 50 or so tables a small handful had retail blasters and that was it. I did find some decent low end older cards at okay prices (and a fun sheet of uncut Chrome Football from the late 90s pretty heavily discounted due to damage on the best card) but a ton of high end stuff that wasn't moving and some truly absurd pricing on a lot of tables. It felt like some dealers hadn't adjusted off of 2020 pricing or don't think people will look things up (bought one card for $11 off Ebay that they had listed for 40...). I will say I thought that there were at least a decent number of tables where kids could pick up some fun cards and have a good day without breaking the bank so that was nice too - good variety (Pokemon, Wrestling, Hockey, in addition to the usual - basketball was light funny enough as was vintage anything).
Here's what I'll say about Backyard. They open more of these products that any other breaker in the business, by a significant margin I'd guess. Frankly, I don't think it's even close. They are on 7 days a week, 24 hours a day, have 5 channels with about 20 breakers. They're going nonstop and they are always opening these products. Second, it's not reasonable to assume that because they open 12 boxes of NT per day (if this guy's source knows what they're talking about), a product like Prizm is much cheaper and they're likely to run through a ton more of that (for the Prizm Cade hit). Their odds of hitting these cards are significantly higher than other breakers who maybe open 1 or 2 of these a week. What are the odds of someone opening 1 per week or month vs what Backyard is doing? For them to hit a big card, like the Lamelo logoman that was hit last week by another breaker, they'd have to be getting a loaded case, right? No, no one cares about these guys. Also, the math is off. They know when product hits are still live. They'll buy from other places besides Panini to get these products when the odds are even better. I watched when they pulled the LeBron logoman. I can't remember how many boxes they opened, but it was a lot higher than 1. They were hunting that card and put in the effort to hit it.

The third thing I'll say is that no one says a peep when Backyard goes break after break and doesn't hit something huge. I see that happening to them far more often than them hitting product hits. A lot of times they'll throw in a box for free if they skunk on a break. No one credits them for that. The guy who hit the Cade 1/1 was a new breaker who hadn't hit a single thing in the couple weeks he had been there. I know because I know him personally and he was really down on himself for how he hadn't pulled anything in his time there.

The fourth thing I'll say about the topic is this: If they knew they were getting loaded boxes, why wouldn't they just rip them on their own? I see some of their breakers open personal boxes for themselves all the time. Why wouldn't they do it if they knew the Cade logoman was there? They'd rather open a personal of Star Wars instead of hitting a $500K card? Makes no sense.

The final thing is maybe Panini is loading them without telling Backyard. Certainly possible, but I don't see why Panini would take that risk. They'd piss off every other customer they have and face possible legal action from them. They're going to risk their highly profitable business for Backyard? I don't see it.

I know I sound like a Backyard stan here, but I've been critical of them in the past (particularly with the TLaw). But I don't think this controversy is grounded in accurate numbers and doesn't take into consideration how much more they break over every other breaker in the hobby.
 

Deathofthebambino

Drive Carefully
SoSH Member
Apr 12, 2005
38,453
Here's what I'll say about Backyard. They open more of these products that any other breaker in the business, by a significant margin I'd guess. Frankly, I don't think it's even close. They are on 7 days a week, 24 hours a day, have 5 channels with about 20 breakers. They're going nonstop and they are always opening these products. Second, it's not reasonable to assume that because they open 12 boxes of NT per day (if this guy's source knows what they're talking about), a product like Prizm is much cheaper and they're likely to run through a ton more of that (for the Prizm Cade hit). Their odds of hitting these cards are significantly higher than other breakers who maybe open 1 or 2 of these a week. What are the odds of someone opening 1 per week or month vs what Backyard is doing? For them to hit a big card, like the Lamelo logoman that was hit last week by another breaker, they'd have to be getting a loaded case, right? No, no one cares about these guys. Also, the math is off. They know when product hits are still live. They'll buy from other places besides Panini to get these products when the odds are even better. I watched when they pulled the LeBron logoman. I can't remember how many boxes they opened, but it was a lot higher than 1. They were hunting that card and put in the effort to hit it.

The third thing I'll say is that no one says a peep when Backyard goes break after break and doesn't hit something huge. I see that happening to them far more often than them hitting product hits. A lot of times they'll throw in a box for free if they skunk on a break. No one credits them for that. The guy who hit the Cade 1/1 was a new breaker who hadn't hit a single thing in the couple weeks he had been there. I know because I know him personally and he was really down on himself for how he hadn't pulled anything in his time there.

The fourth thing I'll say about the topic is this: If they knew they were getting loaded boxes, why wouldn't they just rip them on their own? I see some of their breakers open personal boxes for themselves all the time. Why wouldn't they do it if they knew the Cade logoman was there? They'd rather open a personal of Star Wars instead of hitting a $500K card? Makes no sense.

The final thing is maybe Panini is loading them without telling Backyard. Certainly possible, but I don't see why Panini would take that risk. They'd piss off every other customer they have and face possible legal action from them. They're going to risk their highly profitable business for Backyard? I don't see it.

I know I sound like a Backyard stan here, but I've been critical of them in the past (particularly with the TLaw). But I don't think this controversy is grounded in accurate numbers and doesn't take into consideration how much more they break over every other breaker in the hobby.
I can't speak for the numbers or math this guy is using, but FTR, Panini claims it does not sell anything directly to any breakers.

Which we all know is complete and utter bullshit. Maybe they don't send them to the breakers, but they send them to the Hobby Stores and Distributors who happen to be located very close by to where these breakers are.

Platinum had another issue recently where G put a box cutter to an employee's neck on camera. Here's a breakdown of Panini's (and Fanatics, etc.) responses. Panini is at around 4:30 mark, where they deny shipping to breakers directly:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Tc_WBUun1s
 

Fishercat

Svelte and sexy!
SoSH Member
May 18, 2007
7,406
Manchester, N.H.
Here's what I'll say about Backyard. They open more of these products that any other breaker in the business, by a significant margin I'd guess. Frankly, I don't think it's even close. They are on 7 days a week, 24 hours a day, have 5 channels with about 20 breakers. They're going nonstop and they are always opening these products. Second, it's not reasonable to assume that because they open 12 boxes of NT per day (if this guy's source knows what they're talking about), a product like Prizm is much cheaper and they're likely to run through a ton more of that (for the Prizm Cade hit). Their odds of hitting these cards are significantly higher than other breakers who maybe open 1 or 2 of these a week. What are the odds of someone opening 1 per week or month vs what Backyard is doing? For them to hit a big card, like the Lamelo logoman that was hit last week by another breaker, they'd have to be getting a loaded case, right? No, no one cares about these guys. Also, the math is off. They know when product hits are still live. They'll buy from other places besides Panini to get these products when the odds are even better. I watched when they pulled the LeBron logoman. I can't remember how many boxes they opened, but it was a lot higher than 1. They were hunting that card and put in the effort to hit it.

The third thing I'll say is that no one says a peep when Backyard goes break after break and doesn't hit something huge. I see that happening to them far more often than them hitting product hits. A lot of times they'll throw in a box for free if they skunk on a break. No one credits them for that. The guy who hit the Cade 1/1 was a new breaker who hadn't hit a single thing in the couple weeks he had been there. I know because I know him personally and he was really down on himself for how he hadn't pulled anything in his time there.

The fourth thing I'll say about the topic is this: If they knew they were getting loaded boxes, why wouldn't they just rip them on their own? I see some of their breakers open personal boxes for themselves all the time. Why wouldn't they do it if they knew the Cade logoman was there? They'd rather open a personal of Star Wars instead of hitting a $500K card? Makes no sense.

The final thing is maybe Panini is loading them without telling Backyard. Certainly possible, but I don't see why Panini would take that risk. They'd piss off every other customer they have and face possible legal action from them. They're going to risk their highly profitable business for Backyard? I don't see it.

I know I sound like a Backyard stan here, but I've been critical of them in the past (particularly with the TLaw). But I don't think this controversy is grounded in accurate numbers and doesn't take into consideration how much more they break over every other breaker in the hobby.
The real question comes down to the numbers though right?

I'll agree right off the bat that if this were to happen to any particular breaker - Backyard or Layton seem the most likely for this to happen to. I'll also agree there's no smoking gun here - it's all probabilities. Backyard's reply was a joking advertisement/hype video which IMO is a bad look against a legit complaint but that's their brand. Here's what I'd say if I were someone like SCR or trying to make the argument that is probably Backyard is getting loaded product. I don't have a horse in this race though I find the argument reasonably compelling - not ironclad at all but hard to dismiss.

  • I think the total production numbers are as reasonably accurate as we're gonna get - 4,530 Flawless, 19,130 NT, and 7,590 Prizm FotL. If we know that, we know the odds from there on how much anyone would need to open to get a percentage chance at a certain card. If you think that's wrong, that might be where we need to start, but it seems based on reality. Given Panini doesn't give odds on its product it can be hard to tell. I think your argument would be that Backyard rips so much product that the odds being presented are off, so...
    • Added note: This will change somewhat depending on how aggressive BYB moves to buy product before or after a big pull is made. Like, if you go 30 days and half the product being cracked without a huge hit being made, those odds shift of course. Now, logically half the time in these spots those cards would be hit so the odds are now zero, but I do think the unfair thing about the odds is that it doesn't account for other top flight, hype worthy hits. With that said, it's hard to dispute that these hits are "the" hit of the product (like the Topps Wander 1/1 found in a Walgreens was) - though there are likely other comparable hits (Scottie Barnes 1/1 for instance)
  • We don't know how much Backyard actually purchases or breaks or who it's from. Panini says they don't distribute directly, I personally don't know if I believe that at all (Collectibles Guru suggests they have direct) or, even if they don't, that they don't know that x distributor will likely sell to y breaker. It's also possible a breaker of the size of Layton or Backyard would have a real or not real storefront to justify the direct send, though that's purely supposition. Regardless, that is guesswork at this point and I'm not even going to pretend to know that. Backyard's response (which felt to me like a wink and a nod that this isn't wrong, to be frank) doesn't elaborate nor have they commented. Regardless, if Backyard got half of all of this product, you're at a 6.25% chance of this happening. If they get and open a quarter of this product you're at a .4% chance of this happening. Neither of those numbers are unbelievable, but even if you go to like...15% (which feels like a really high number for a single party to acquire), it starts to become a true moonshot. I would also say if Backyard is getting enough of the product to even have a 1% chance of this happening that it feels like a busted distribution system. There's a big difference between being the statistically most likely party to do this (which I'd agree) and it actually happening - kind of like being the most statistically likely person to win the Pick 4 four times in a row because you buy 50 or 100 tickets every week.
  • I don't think anyone is saying or arguing Backyard knows which cases specifically have these mega hits in them - that's a step too far for me. I also don't think it matters too much who hits the card specifically - like your friend who is breaking for them - what likely matters more for a Backyard or Panini is that it's hit while being watched and can be promoted. I also think that the business would be smart enough to know after the T-Law fiasco that any breaker who plucked the personal box would be crucified for that and that, frankly...I have my doubts many of these breakers have the free money in their pocket to afford a full flawless box on their own for instance. NT or FOTL would be more viable but I think the running theory is that there may be awareness of it being in the case or provided on the whole vs. a marked box.
  • As for why Panini would do this with our without BYB's knowledge? I think there's a few reasons
    • BYB's social presence is fairly large. On IG Layton has 56k followers, Mojobreak has 16k, Backyard Breaks has 103k and clearly is on an upward trajectory. They break on the more current platforms for it (Whatnot, Twitch, etc.) whereas other breakers are using legacy tools heavily and they use social aggressively - a big hit from BYB is just a lot more likely to get attention and hype than other breakers. That's good for Panini given they have all of their product out already to build hype on future releases
    • Panini's general price points and model seems to be designed for breakers over individual collectors. This isn't to say Topps doesn't have Breaker products, but Panini seems more focused on it - it would incentivize them to prove value by having big hits get big visibility. The Triple LeBron Logoman slipping into a private collection is a disaster given the Whatnot hype and bounties surrounding it. A single suitcase of Flawless costs 12k or so right now - it's meant to be broken really.
    • BYB prioritizes Panini's sport and products really heavily. I had to go back nearly two months on IG to find a Topps related post (Diamond Icons). Topps has been releasing some fairly high end products in this timeframe as well. It's just not BYB's focus but is a natural match for Panini.
    • They're gonna hype the living hell out of it. I haven't done a break in years but my breaker of choice was really soft-spoken and the promotion was generally limited to an IG Post...that is not BYB for better or for worse.
I don't know if there is a point where the probability goes from "really?" to "really." if you will. This could be a coincidence. This could be genuinely a point where BYB is huge enough to break 30, 35, 40% of product. It's also probably somewhat that they picked four specific cards and if you took the top 50 hits from these products BYB got four (no idea). I do think though that unless BYB is breaking substantially more than assumed I have to side eye it. I find it possibly even more likely that Panini is tabbing loaded product for high end breakers (like Packman's Silver Packs at the National...) to promote their product without their knowledge than that the breakers/influencers are in on it too.

Granted, high end basketball/football is aggressively not my territory, so none of this really affects me.
 

ElcaballitoMVP

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 19, 2008
3,813
The real question comes down to the numbers though right?

I'll agree right off the bat that if this were to happen to any particular breaker - Backyard or Layton seem the most likely for this to happen to. I'll also agree there's no smoking gun here - it's all probabilities. Backyard's reply was a joking advertisement/hype video which IMO is a bad look against a legit complaint but that's their brand. Here's what I'd say if I were someone like SCR or trying to make the argument that is probably Backyard is getting loaded product. I don't have a horse in this race though I find the argument reasonably compelling - not ironclad at all but hard to dismiss.

  • I think the total production numbers are as reasonably accurate as we're gonna get - 4,530 Flawless, 19,130 NT, and 7,590 Prizm FotL. If we know that, we know the odds from there on how much anyone would need to open to get a percentage chance at a certain card. If you think that's wrong, that might be where we need to start, but it seems based on reality. Given Panini doesn't give odds on its product it can be hard to tell. I think your argument would be that Backyard rips so much product that the odds being presented are off, so...
    • Added note: This will change somewhat depending on how aggressive BYB moves to buy product before or after a big pull is made. Like, if you go 30 days and half the product being cracked without a huge hit being made, those odds shift of course. Now, logically half the time in these spots those cards would be hit so the odds are now zero, but I do think the unfair thing about the odds is that it doesn't account for other top flight, hype worthy hits. With that said, it's hard to dispute that these hits are "the" hit of the product (like the Topps Wander 1/1 found in a Walgreens was) - though there are likely other comparable hits (Scottie Barnes 1/1 for instance)
  • We don't know how much Backyard actually purchases or breaks or who it's from. Panini says they don't distribute directly, I personally don't know if I believe that at all (Collectibles Guru suggests they have direct) or, even if they don't, that they don't know that x distributor will likely sell to y breaker. It's also possible a breaker of the size of Layton or Backyard would have a real or not real storefront to justify the direct send, though that's purely supposition. Regardless, that is guesswork at this point and I'm not even going to pretend to know that. Backyard's response (which felt to me like a wink and a nod that this isn't wrong, to be frank) doesn't elaborate nor have they commented. Regardless, if Backyard got half of all of this product, you're at a 6.25% chance of this happening. If they get and open a quarter of this product you're at a .4% chance of this happening. Neither of those numbers are unbelievable, but even if you go to like...15% (which feels like a really high number for a single party to acquire), it starts to become a true moonshot. I would also say if Backyard is getting enough of the product to even have a 1% chance of this happening that it feels like a busted distribution system. There's a big difference between being the statistically most likely party to do this (which I'd agree) and it actually happening - kind of like being the most statistically likely person to win the Pick 4 four times in a row because you buy 50 or 100 tickets every week.
  • I don't think anyone is saying or arguing Backyard knows which cases specifically have these mega hits in them - that's a step too far for me. I also don't think it matters too much who hits the card specifically - like your friend who is breaking for them - what likely matters more for a Backyard or Panini is that it's hit while being watched and can be promoted. I also think that the business would be smart enough to know after the T-Law fiasco that any breaker who plucked the personal box would be crucified for that and that, frankly...I have my doubts many of these breakers have the free money in their pocket to afford a full flawless box on their own for instance. NT or FOTL would be more viable but I think the running theory is that there may be awareness of it being in the case or provided on the whole vs. a marked box.
  • As for why Panini would do this with our without BYB's knowledge? I think there's a few reasons
    • BYB's social presence is fairly large. On IG Layton has 56k followers, Mojobreak has 16k, Backyard Breaks has 103k and clearly is on an upward trajectory. They break on the more current platforms for it (Whatnot, Twitch, etc.) whereas other breakers are using legacy tools heavily and they use social aggressively - a big hit from BYB is just a lot more likely to get attention and hype than other breakers. That's good for Panini given they have all of their product out already to build hype on future releases
    • Panini's general price points and model seems to be designed for breakers over individual collectors. This isn't to say Topps doesn't have Breaker products, but Panini seems more focused on it - it would incentivize them to prove value by having big hits get big visibility. The Triple LeBron Logoman slipping into a private collection is a disaster given the Whatnot hype and bounties surrounding it. A single suitcase of Flawless costs 12k or so right now - it's meant to be broken really.
    • BYB prioritizes Panini's sport and products really heavily. I had to go back nearly two months on IG to find a Topps related post (Diamond Icons). Topps has been releasing some fairly high end products in this timeframe as well. It's just not BYB's focus but is a natural match for Panini.
    • They're gonna hype the living hell out of it. I haven't done a break in years but my breaker of choice was really soft-spoken and the promotion was generally limited to an IG Post...that is not BYB for better or for worse.
I don't know if there is a point where the probability goes from "really?" to "really." if you will. This could be a coincidence. This could be genuinely a point where BYB is huge enough to break 30, 35, 40% of product. It's also probably somewhat that they picked four specific cards and if you took the top 50 hits from these products BYB got four (no idea). I do think though that unless BYB is breaking substantially more than assumed I have to side eye it. I find it possibly even more likely that Panini is tabbing loaded product for high end breakers (like Packman's Silver Packs at the National...) to promote their product without their knowledge than that the breakers/influencers are in on it too.

Granted, high end basketball/football is aggressively not my territory, so none of this really affects me.
All great points. The only thing I would disagree with you here is on the Panini side of things. I understand the value in getting these things promoted by BYB and they do have a huge presence, but I think it would be very short sighted if their approach was to load up boxes headed their way. If that ever came out, they are doing significant damage to their brand. The average consumer can't afford these big boxes, so I would think the risk of them falling into a private collection is minimal. And even if they do end up getting pulled by a private customer, chances are that thing is heading to Goldin for auction unless it wound up in China.

And @Deathofthebambino that Platinum thing was awful. That guy should be in jail.
 

Oil Can Dan

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
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Jul 31, 2003
7,485
0-3 to 4-3
I find all of this pretty interesting. A question though - doesn't Panini sell every single thing that they produce? Why take a risk that could lead to serious issues then? It's not as if they need promotional help, right? Is it that they can then raise their prices?
 

Deathofthebambino

Drive Carefully
SoSH Member
Apr 12, 2005
38,453
All great points. The only thing I would disagree with you here is on the Panini side of things. I understand the value in getting these things promoted by BYB and they do have a huge presence, but I think it would be very short sighted if their approach was to load up boxes headed their way. If that ever came out, they are doing significant damage to their brand. The average consumer can't afford these big boxes, so I would think the risk of them falling into a private collection is minimal. And even if they do end up getting pulled by a private customer, chances are that thing is heading to Goldin for auction unless it wound up in China.

And @Deathofthebambino that Platinum thing was awful. That guy should be in jail.
In G's case (George Seus in real life), it wouldn't be the first time he's been to jail. Here is a running tally of some of his "greatest" hits, and his rap sheet.

https://www.sportscardradio.com/worst-breaker-ever-platinum-card-breaks/
 

Fishercat

Svelte and sexy!
SoSH Member
May 18, 2007
7,406
Manchester, N.H.
All great points. The only thing I would disagree with you here is on the Panini side of things. I understand the value in getting these things promoted by BYB and they do have a huge presence, but I think it would be very short sighted if their approach was to load up boxes headed their way. If that ever came out, they are doing significant damage to their brand. The average consumer can't afford these big boxes, so I would think the risk of them falling into a private collection is minimal. And even if they do end up getting pulled by a private customer, chances are that thing is heading to Goldin for auction unless it wound up in China.
I find all of this pretty interesting. A question though - doesn't Panini sell every single thing that they produce? Why take a risk that could lead to serious issues then? It's not as if they need promotional help, right? Is it that they can then raise their prices?

I think these two may be interconnected (and are very fair points). Panini does rather well in the sales department and, to Elcab's point...the odds of it being a private collector opening Panini FoTL NT or Flawless is super low. There's the occasional product that'll sit on the shelves or drop hard in the reverse auction but like mainline and very high end basketball and football products aren't that and these very high end ones will eventually go. The reason this is is, of course, because of breakers. If BYB is moving as much product as it seems, I do think Panini could be incentivized to make sure that slot machine specifically hits from time to time beyond what average chance would be. It helps keep product moving and lets them keep prices very high as breaking helps dispel a lot of that cost. Panini has successfully raised the price of their products fairly dramatically and the occasional jackpot helps to keep hype going (2019 NFL Prizm MSRP was $150 and was selling on StockX around 220 or so right before the Pandemic, 2021 NFL Prizm has not sold below 1k for the same Hobby Box on StockX with some minor format changes - a little more color/silver in 2021, one more auto in 2019). Panini has priced their products at hobby out of the reach of a ton of people who want it, and if they're going to rely this heavily on breakers (and their distributors are doing as much) to make this work, getting their jackpots to those biggest movers to incentivize those customers to keep buying seems reasonable-ish to me.

With that said, I am personally more inclined to believe that if this is happening, it's not some overarching mass conspiracy to specifically enrich BYB and more of a matter of keeping the positive vibes coming from the loudest voices in the sports card world. Panini is in a bit of a precarious position with Fanatics grabbing licenses and buying Topps - this kind of thing helps to keep their biggest customers coming back and that helps making them more valuable to Fanatics in terms of an eventual buyout and maybe to keep customers if they do have to pivot outside of the big three sports to things like WWE, Pop Culture, UFC, as their main bread and butter. I'm also not convinced it getting found out really hurts them. McDonald's ran Monopoly contests after those being hard rigged got out. They still have exclusive licenses to the NFL and NBA for a while. I think if anything it drives more traffic to these big breakers...which helps if anything.

And Platinum...jeez, give me Backyard any day over those dudes.

Edit : Speaking of Panini, socials, and allocations…

https://www.reddit.com/r/baseballcards/comments/y6r22h/small_favor_im_giving_these_away_for_free_on_my/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
 
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Fishercat

Svelte and sexy!
SoSH Member
May 18, 2007
7,406
Manchester, N.H.
So, worth pointing out. If anyone is looking for cheap retail, Books a Million is great for it somehow.

Topps : : Booksamillion.com

I think Bowman recently sold out, but retail boxes of Series 1 for $55, Retail GQ and Heritage Boxes for $70, blasters of Series 1 for $15 and Series 2, GQ, and Heritage for $20, a 12 pack of Series 1 fat packs for $43.20 ($3.50 a fat pack is kind of a nutty price), and Series 1 hangers at 56 for 8 (so $7 a hanger).

They also carry Panini but I have no idea if these are good deals or not. The blaster seem like what I've seen elsewhere but the retail boxes seem to undercut again really well

Panini : Gifts : Booksamillion.com

I did a small order and shipping was quick and safe - the blaster itself had to be the worst blaster I've ever opened in terms of the cards I got but it was legit.
 
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LoweTek

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
May 30, 2005
2,108
Central Florida
@Bergs

2 American League 1967 Batting Leaders (Carl Yastrzemski / Frank Robinson / Al Kaline) LL
6 American League 1967 Home Run Leaders (Carl Yastrzemski / Harmon Killebrew / Frank Howard) LL
10 American League 1967 Pitching Leaders (Jim Lonborg / Earl Wilson / Dean Chance) LL
12 American League 1967 Strikeout Leaders (Jim Lonborg / Sam McDowell / Dean Chance) LL
61 Reggie Smith ASR
155 World Series Game #5 - Lonborg Wins Again! WS
156 World Series Game #6 - Petrocelli Socks Two Homers WS **(Note: this card is autographed by Rico)
167 Elston Howard
189 Bill Landis RC

192 3rd Series Checklist 197-283 (Carl Yastrzemski) CL (any of 4 variants)
331 Dan Osinski
566 Ken Harrelson


Not to compete with my old friend Fris but I have just about all of them. Where should I send pics? PM me.

Let me know if you need other years. I think I have all RS from the '65 set as well and other 60s also.

So far I found those in green above. I think I have the other Leaders as well.
 
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Ale Xander

doesn't like to back it in
SoSH Member
Oct 31, 2013
57,201
So, worth pointing out. If anyone is looking for cheap retail, Books a Million is great for it somehow.

Topps : : Booksamillion.com

I think Bowman recently sold out, but retail boxes of Series 1 for $55, Retail GQ and Heritage Boxes for $70, blasters of Series 1 for $15 and Series 2, GQ, and Heritage for $20, a 12 pack of Series 1 fat packs for $43.20 ($3.50 a fat pack is kind of a nutty price), and Series 1 hangers at 56 for 8 (so $7 a hanger).

They also carry Panini but I have no idea if these are good deals or not. The blaster seem like what I've seen elsewhere but the retail boxes seem to undercut again really well

Panini : Gifts : Booksamillion.com

I did a small order and shipping was quick and safe - the blaster itself had to be the worst blaster I've ever opened in terms of the cards I got but it was legit.
Thanks, this is cool! Wish they had something closer than Concord, NH or Waterford, CT for in person buying, but I think I may buy a couple online. hate being 2 cents shorts for free shipping . . .
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
49,777
Thanks, this is cool! Wish they had something closer than Concord, NH or Waterford, CT for in person buying, but I think I may buy a couple online. hate being 2 cents shorts for free shipping . . .
Buy a cheap paperback?
 

Bergs

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 22, 2005
18,902
@Bergs

2 American League 1967 Batting Leaders (Carl Yastrzemski / Frank Robinson / Al Kaline) LL
6 American League 1967 Home Run Leaders (Carl Yastrzemski / Harmon Killebrew / Frank Howard) LL
10 American League 1967 Pitching Leaders (Jim Lonborg / Earl Wilson / Dean Chance) LL
12 American League 1967 Strikeout Leaders (Jim Lonborg / Sam McDowell / Dean Chance) LL
61 Reggie Smith ASR
155 World Series Game #5 - Lonborg Wins Again! WS
156 World Series Game #6 - Petrocelli Socks Two Homers WS **(Note: this card is autographed by Rico)
167 Elston Howard
189 Bill Landis RC

192 3rd Series Checklist 197-283 (Carl Yastrzemski) CL (any of 4 variants)
331 Dan Osinski
566 Ken Harrelson


Not to compete with my old friend Fris but I have just about all of them. Where should I send pics? PM me.

Let me know if you need other years. I think I have all RS from the '65 set as well and other 60s also.

So far I found those in green above. I think I have the other Leaders as well.
Sweet! PM me your email (I can't start conversations on SoSH) and I'll send you my complete list (it's in xlsx). At the moment, I need 47 cards (I already bought the eight 68's I struck through above. I am not a patient guy, apparently.)

Edit: Full disclosure, I am being pretty picky on condition.
 

LoweTek

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
May 30, 2005
2,108
Central Florida
Sweet! PM me your email (I can't start conversations on SoSH) and I'll send you my complete list (it's in xlsx). At the moment, I need 47 cards (I already bought the eight 68's I struck through above. I am not a patient guy, apparently.)

Edit: Full disclosure, I am being pretty picky on condition.
Apparently, I can't start a conversation with you either. Never happened before. Dopes? Bueller? Anyone?
 

Lose Remerswaal

Experiencing Furry Panic
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Fris, the guys I work with regularly own Batter Up in Tewksbury. They've been there forever.

They will take your cards for you, list them on Ebay, sell them, package them, ship them, and then simply send you the funds from the sale. They'll take a commission, which I can probably negotiate down (I think they're probably around 25% for most folks, but I can probably get it down significantly as your friend and I explain why you need to get rid of them). They're good guys, I trust them, and have used them to sell a ton of stuff I didn't want to bother with over the years.
Hey, @Deathofthebambino , I emailed these guys a few days ago, didn’t hear back. Do you have a contact there I can reach out to? Thanks!
 

Deathofthebambino

Drive Carefully
SoSH Member
Apr 12, 2005
38,453
Hey, @Deathofthebambino , I emailed these guys a few days ago, didn’t hear back. Do you have a contact there I can reach out to? Thanks!
Just call the office number. I'm not even sure how often they would look at email. If you call there, 99% of the time, one of the 2 brothers who own the place will answer. Tell them you know me, and go from there. Fris reached out to them directly, and dropped some stuff off, so if you want to his opinion, PM him and he'll get back to you if the surf is down.
 

Ale Xander

doesn't like to back it in
SoSH Member
Oct 31, 2013
57,201
Hey, @Deathofthebambino , I emailed these guys a few days ago, didn’t hear back. Do you have a contact there I can reach out to? Thanks!
Ran into someone from Tewksbury at a card show today, he was holding one of those expensive card briefcases with a combo lock and everything so I figure he knew about them. Said they mainly focus on retail and don’t do much consignment or perhaps don’t have much time for it/overwhelmed

FWIW/YMMV etc
 

Deathofthebambino

Drive Carefully
SoSH Member
Apr 12, 2005
38,453
Ran into someone from Tewksbury at a card show today, he was holding one of those expensive card briefcases with a combo lock and everything so I figure he knew about them. Said they mainly focus on retail and don’t do much consignment or perhaps don’t have much time for it/overwhelmed

FWIW/YMMV etc
They do quite a bit of consignment stuff. Their account name on Ebay is busportscards, and they're rating is over 40,000. Almost all of their Ebay stuff is consignment on behalf of customers. They don't rip their own stuff and sell it. I'm sure they would prefer not to sell a ton of $5 cards for people, but if they have to in order to sell a bunch of higher priced stuff, it's not an issue for them at all.
 

Ale Xander

doesn't like to back it in
SoSH Member
Oct 31, 2013
57,201
They do quite a bit of consignment stuff. Their account name on Ebay is busportscards, and they're rating is over 40,000. Almost all of their Ebay stuff is consignment on behalf of customers. They don't rip their own stuff and sell it. I'm sure they would prefer not to sell a ton of $5 cards for people, but if they have to in order to sell a bunch of higher priced stuff, it's not an issue for them at all.
Thanks!!!
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

posts way less than 18% useful shit
SoSH Member
Nov 17, 2010
13,293
BackYardBreaks making headlines again. Can't find link right now, but they were doing a free giveaway for an Absolute hobby box. Sure enough, the box hit a gold Trevor Lawrence KABOOM ($30ish K). Despite saying multiple times on stream that this was part of the giveaway, they wormed their way out of giving the card away.

Not a complete sin, but if you're going to be doing giveaways, either have stipulated that you won't give away cards past a certain price, or acknowledge that you're taking a risk to build viewers and accept the loss.

Fake edit: here's a link to a ticky tocky video. Can literally hear them say "were giving away a KABOOM!" "Were giving away a godamn KABOOM for free!" Before realizing it was the TLaw card.

https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTR9NuAjv/
 

Ale Xander

doesn't like to back it in
SoSH Member
Oct 31, 2013
57,201
So they’re giving away a box rip and not a box.
2 different things

they’re assholes for doing this
Unless I guess the winner wanted them to rip it but I doubt that
 

ElcaballitoMVP

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 19, 2008
3,813
BackYardBreaks making headlines again. Can't find link right now, but they were doing a free giveaway for an Absolute hobby box. Sure enough, the box hit a gold Trevor Lawrence KABOOM ($30ish K). Despite saying multiple times on stream that this was part of the giveaway, they wormed their way out of giving the card away.

Not a complete sin, but if you're going to be doing giveaways, either have stipulated that you won't give away cards past a certain price, or acknowledge that you're taking a risk to build viewers and accept the loss.

Fake edit: here's a link to a ticky tocky video. Can literally hear them say "were giving away a KABOOM!" "Were giving away a godamn KABOOM for free!" Before realizing it was the TLaw card.

https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTR9NuAjv/
That was an absolute train wreck of a situation, but that's not new. I think that was from February
 

djbayko

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
22,385
Los Angeles, CA
BackYardBreaks making headlines again. Can't find link right now, but they were doing a free giveaway for an Absolute hobby box. Sure enough, the box hit a gold Trevor Lawrence KABOOM ($30ish K). Despite saying multiple times on stream that this was part of the giveaway, they wormed their way out of giving the card away.

Not a complete sin, but if you're going to be doing giveaways, either have stipulated that you won't give away cards past a certain price, or acknowledge that you're taking a risk to build viewers and accept the loss.

Fake edit: here's a link to a ticky tocky video. Can literally hear them say "were giving away a KABOOM!" "Were giving away a godamn KABOOM for free!" Before realizing it was the TLaw card.

https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTR9NuAjv/
Seems like a complete sin to me.
 

Fishercat

Svelte and sexy!
SoSH Member
May 18, 2007
7,406
Manchester, N.H.
In other "smh" news, it seems that both Topps and Panini are marking packs that have 1/1s in them in some fashion - Topps had a red mark on the pack that had a Superfractor inside, and a WWE Panini product had a hand-written 1/1 filler card in a box and was missing a card. In both cases they were packs inside of larger boxes, so unless a card shop got a high end box and opened it for single pack sales there's not really a way to get the card to a specific person and the specific superfractor in the Topps box was not anything most people would chase for necessarily, but does lend some credence to the idea that Panini/Topps could know where 1/1s end up.

In happier news, Topps Update seems to be at retail today - as I said very solid rookie checklist so if you liked 2022 Topps as a product, the checklist is much more solid than S2 or 2021 Update in my view. I figure Chrome Update is gonna be a very hot product this year.

Also, I'm about 30% of the way into my Top 100 project - got final cards or at least "good enough" cards for pretty much everyone from 71-100, so the next batch is starting to get pricier. Any favorite cards of folks in this batch let me know!

61 Arky Vaughan
62 Smokey Joe Williams
63 Steve Carlton
64 Johnny Mize
65 Ernie Banks
66 Robin Yount
67 Hank Greenberg
68 Gaylord Perry
69 Monte Irvin
70 Sandy Koufax
 

saintnick912

GINO!
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Oct 30, 2004
4,760
Somerville, MA
I dig the 1959 Ernie Banks, the card design plays well with the photo. It can be had for much less than the '54 or '55, my favorite two set designs.

Speaking of, probably just overpaid a bit for a 1/1 signed Wade Boggs with the 1955 design. Just hit all my check boxes and was still only in "nice dinner" range. Never had a 1/1 either so that's fun.
 
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Traut

lost his degree
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2005
12,428
My Desk
I buy cards that spark joy. So I basically have a lot of Pedro and Ortiz. Check out this amazing SP in the 2022 flagship update.

56998
 

djbayko

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
22,385
Los Angeles, CA
Great card!

Just saw this on the twitter and almost fell off my chair:

View attachment 57001
This is amazing. One of my favorite "error" cards, with the way they had several ways of patching over the swear and some of the corrections being much rarer.

I need to know more about this card. That isn't the actual knob from the picture, right? Is it even a real knob? I assume so since the crad says "game-used bat knob", but how did they slice it so thin while maintaining it's integrity? The sharpie writing looks faked to me.
 

Fishercat

Svelte and sexy!
SoSH Member
May 18, 2007
7,406
Manchester, N.H.
Thanks for the heads up, bought a box.am sure I will regret it!
I bought a couple blasters and came out pretty happy. Hit nearly every major rookie, getting a numbered parallel is far easier than Series 1 and 2 (two blasters had a blue and foil unnumbered, a gold, and a vintage stock). The inserts aren't great imo (black gold still looks really nice) but it was a lot more rewarding than S1 or S2
 

Bergs

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 22, 2005
18,902
This is amazing. One of my favorite "error" cards, with the way they had several ways of patching over the swear and some of the corrections being much rarer.

I need to know more about this card. That isn't the actual knob from the picture, right? Is it even a real knob? I assume so since the crad says "game-used bat knob", but how did they slice it so thin while maintaining it's integrity? The sharpie writing looks faked to me.
It's a joke.