Sox send Miley to Seattle for Smith (RP) and Elias (SP)
- Thread starter MakMan44
- Start date
Tazawa available as early as the 6th, with Smith/Uehara/Kimbrel lined up for the 7th-8th-9th, with Layne ready in case there's a tough lefty in the mix, with Wright playing the role of Frank Castillo, and one spot left for either Elias or Ross or Kelly (if Owens or Elias has a great ST) --> this bullpen is going to be every bit as much fun as the Royals' pen has been the last couple of years.
Or, if that's too optimistic, I'm now a lot less worried about burning Tazawa's arm out.
Or, if that's too optimistic, I'm now a lot less worried about burning Tazawa's arm out.
Regardless of who we got I will miss Miley and his sometimes uncontrolled fervor...absolutely loved watching him "lose" it.
I really like this trade, as I was concerned that Taz's best days were behind him.
The way that DDski has succession-planned for after his and Koji's last year is really well-done IMO. And it's not hard to imagine a scenario where one of Elias/Owens/Johnson is a key piece at the deadline to bring back a legit #2 starter.
The way that DDski has succession-planned for after his and Koji's last year is really well-done IMO. And it's not hard to imagine a scenario where one of Elias/Owens/Johnson is a key piece at the deadline to bring back a legit #2 starter.
The real deal is availbale--the Reds did not pick up his option, so Burke is a FA.
Elias had two implosion starts against Houston and KC (good teams) last June, with 7ER in 3.1 and 3.2 innings respectively.
Outside of those, he was pretty sharp. I know this is cherry picking, and in between the two he had an excellent 10 K start, pitching into the 8th.
He allowed fewer than four runs 15 times out of 20 starts.
Outside of those, he was pretty sharp. I know this is cherry picking, and in between the two he had an excellent 10 K start, pitching into the 8th.
He allowed fewer than four runs 15 times out of 20 starts.
Tim Britton @TimBritton 2m2 minutes ago
RELIEVERS WITH A HIGHER fWAR THAN CARSON SMITH, 2015 Cody Allen Aroldis Chapman Dellin Betances That's the list.
4 retweets3 likes
RELIEVERS WITH A HIGHER fWAR THAN CARSON SMITH, 2015 Cody Allen Aroldis Chapman Dellin Betances That's the list.
4 retweets3 likes
I think Kelly's bounceback after his Pawtucket stint earned him a crack at this rotation, and it would have been hasty to give up on him as a starter. He was absolutely frustrating to watch pitch at times last season, but there's reason for optimism with him and there wasn't much to go on as to how Kelly would perform as a reliever, it could have been a disaster.
The benefit of having a lot of OK starters is that we're swapping in an OK Joe Kelly for an OK Miley, there's a shot that there is no dropoff there if what we saw from Kelly late last season was real. Miley was the guy in the rotation with value on the market and Dombrowski did a fantastic job leveraging that value to help the MLB team. I can't see any huge holes in this team now with the middle relief sewn up. Ramirez is a concern, but otherwise I'm thrilled with this offseason.
I don't understand what the Mariners are thinking here at all. 5 years of team control of Carson Smith is worth what? More than four years of Darren O'Day, I would think, and people think he's going to get 4/$36 to pitch until he turns 36. And you're giving him up for what. 3 years of Wade Miley being more average? Who of course you do have to pay for and is only somewhat below market, so you're adding payroll in the deal.
If you're a team with the resources of the Mariners you have to bet on your ability to get to average with low-cost guys like Elias. If you have to go out and spend important assets to get average, you're screwed.
If you're a team with the resources of the Mariners you have to bet on your ability to get to average with low-cost guys like Elias. If you have to go out and spend important assets to get average, you're screwed.
This deal makes so much sense on multiple levels and I don't believe DD is nearly done.
1. Miley's value is greatly tied to being a quality "Innings Eater" who saves our bullpen which isn't as valuable to us as it was pre-David Price. Still valuable.....but not nearly as much.
2. We have multiple backend starters available to provide similar production as Miley during regular season....some even come with a higher upside.
3. Miley's post-season role could be minimal or none at all while Smith's has the potential to be crucial.
4. We invested $30m in Price.....knocking around $7m off the payroll each of the next two seasons "isn't nothing" when constructing a roster with a somewhat reasonable budget. Having replacements available in house allow this to occur.
5. It allows us to even move Uehara if we need to reduce payroll further or as a part of the Hanley elimination.
1. Miley's value is greatly tied to being a quality "Innings Eater" who saves our bullpen which isn't as valuable to us as it was pre-David Price. Still valuable.....but not nearly as much.
2. We have multiple backend starters available to provide similar production as Miley during regular season....some even come with a higher upside.
3. Miley's post-season role could be minimal or none at all while Smith's has the potential to be crucial.
4. We invested $30m in Price.....knocking around $7m off the payroll each of the next two seasons "isn't nothing" when constructing a roster with a somewhat reasonable budget. Having replacements available in house allow this to occur.
5. It allows us to even move Uehara if we need to reduce payroll further or as a part of the Hanley elimination.
Buster Olney @Buster_ESPN 15s15 seconds ago
Boston getting big-time rave reviews from rival executives on the Carson Smith acquisition.
Boston getting big-time rave reviews from rival executives on the Carson Smith acquisition.
If Kelly's late season revival was for real, he's Matsuzaka circa 2008. He walked a *lot* of dudes and stranded them on base. I like his chances to be better than the 6 ERA guy he was in the first half, but it's a high-wire act.
Pete Abraham @PeteAbe 30m30 minutes ago
Can’t imagine John Farrell had much compunction trading Miley.
Can’t imagine John Farrell had much compunction trading Miley.
Buster Olney @Buster_ESPN
Boston getting big-time rave reviews from rival executives on the Carson Smith acquisition.
Boston getting big-time rave reviews from rival executives on the Carson Smith acquisition.
As they should given the asking price of FA RP and teams trading RP
Buster Olney @Buster_ESPN 2m2 minutes ago
Boston getting big-time rave reviews from rival executives on the Carson Smith acquisition.
Buster Olney @Buster_ESPN 2m2 minutes ago
Boston getting big-time rave reviews from rival executives on the Carson Smith acquisition.
Are you forgetting about Layne? He's death to LHH.
I'm legit excited to watch this bullpen.
We're going to need a couple of people to fill those shoes.
A sort of sports bureau.
An Elias Sports Bureau, if you will.
Yeah I don't know why they couldn't have landed Miley for just Smith. And even that is robbing Peter to pay Paul, considering how bad their bullpen was last year.
Tim Britton @TimBritton 11m11 minutes ago
If you're wondering why M's would move Smith, velo was down later in the season, and you might worry about production if it doesn't return.
Just to be a buzzkill...
If you're wondering why M's would move Smith, velo was down later in the season, and you might worry about production if it doesn't return.
Just to be a buzzkill...
Pete Abraham @PeteAbe 11m11 minutes ago
How Smith is able to bounce back from 70 appearances after previous high of 49 (in ’12) will determine if this trade works
How Smith is able to bounce back from 70 appearances after previous high of 49 (in ’12) will determine if this trade works
Hm, OK then. But he went from 48 to 70 appearances, so there are plenty of reasons why he might have fallen off late. Might need to be managed better, but the Sox shouldn't need to lean on him so heavily.
Maybe it was. But in Sep/Oct he allowed no runs in 12.2 innings, with 20 Ks and 3 walks.
He didn't give up a run in 12 September appearances, totaling 12 2/3 innings. He had a rough July, and his ERA in Aug. was 3.86, but I don't see a trend where he struggled late due to loss of velocity.
September stats for Carson Smith:
11.1 IP 8 hits 0 runs 2 walks 19Ks
Resume celebration.
Carson Smith got four outs for his 22nd hold before Tom Wilhelmsen blew a save Saturday against the A's.
The main reason Smith hasn't spent the last month closing is because the Mariners don't want to have to pay him big bucks in arbitration a couple of years down the line. He's recovered from his midseason malaise by going the last 18 2/3 innings without allowing an earned run (and just one unearned). Oct 4 - 2:09 AM
This will make you feel slightly better.
Former ESPN Seattle guy with some good details on Elias who sounds like he could benefit from some seasoning Pawtucket. 5 years of control for both him and Smith and this is just a complete win for DD in my book.
Elias is an ultra-athletic arm with enough angle and stuff to pitch out of the bullpen but a lot of upside as a starter, still. The fastball is low-90s — up to 94 on occasion — to go with a plus curveball that he didn’t command consistently in 2015. His changeup has improved, giving him a chance at a third big-league offering and he’ll change arm angles with the first two pitches versus left-handed batters.
Elias, despite being 27, has five years of club control remaining and with the right attention to his mechanics could end up better than Miley ever has been, though he’s not right now and his exact role in Boston remains to be seen.
In conclusion, I don’t like this trade for Seattle and I absolutely love it for Boston. The Sox shed a little payroll, add a useful, multi-dimensional lefty with cheap controlled years left, and a devastating right-handed reliever who also will be dirt cheap for two more seasons.
http://prospectinsider.com/analysis-ms-acquire-miley-aro/
Elias is an ultra-athletic arm with enough angle and stuff to pitch out of the bullpen but a lot of upside as a starter, still. The fastball is low-90s — up to 94 on occasion — to go with a plus curveball that he didn’t command consistently in 2015. His changeup has improved, giving him a chance at a third big-league offering and he’ll change arm angles with the first two pitches versus left-handed batters.
Elias, despite being 27, has five years of club control remaining and with the right attention to his mechanics could end up better than Miley ever has been, though he’s not right now and his exact role in Boston remains to be seen.
In conclusion, I don’t like this trade for Seattle and I absolutely love it for Boston. The Sox shed a little payroll, add a useful, multi-dimensional lefty with cheap controlled years left, and a devastating right-handed reliever who also will be dirt cheap for two more seasons.
http://prospectinsider.com/analysis-ms-acquire-miley-aro/
Works for me. I was a little bummed about this deal at first (I like Miley a lot for some reason), but I'm coming all the way around.
I get why Kimbrel required a huge, valuable prospect package and Smith basically just went for a backend starter, but it really wouldn't surprise me if they put up similar numbers in 2016.
Bullpen now projects 3 closer level talents with K/9 rates last year: 11.8 (15' smith) 10.5 ('15 Koji) and 13.2 ('15 Kimbrel)!!!!
Unfortunately, building bullpens on historical trends is a fickle process, but on paper this gives them a chance to shut the door.
Unfortunately, building bullpens on historical trends is a fickle process, but on paper this gives them a chance to shut the door.
Great point on #3. Even more fired up for this trade after thinking about that.
Elias too? This is a great deal for Sox. Elias has swung and miss change up and curve. Hasn't broken out due more to inconsistent use than injury. Great ground ball history.
Okay, I changed my mind. Trading Miley for a bullpen arm is a good idea if it's an arm as good as Smith's.
No, I'm nott forgetting about Layne, he's the lefty I trust. It's Ross and Escobar and the like that I'd like to have more confidence in.
Do you think he's making it up? Or are you too lazy to Google "Fangraphs" and click on the leaderboard?
His worst month would have made him the best pitcher in our 2015 pen, right?
From MLBTR:
Elias dominated lefties, holding same-handed batters to a .218/.304/.332 clip. His control against lefties could stand to improve a bit, but he’s a generally useful weapon against them and could conceivably be tougher if shifted to a bullpen role, where he could throw harder in shorter stints.
Elias dominated lefties, holding same-handed batters to a .218/.304/.332 clip. His control against lefties could stand to improve a bit, but he’s a generally useful weapon against them and could conceivably be tougher if shifted to a bullpen role, where he could throw harder in shorter stints.
I was dreading a starting pitcher for a reliever trade, because I was certain they'd get back something mediocre for a player of value. But I can't complain about this. A starter with upside and a top shelf performer who would close for a lot of teams. And lots of team control on both. And salary relief on top of it all, if only a little. Love it.
I'll place my bet that Roenis Elias will be part of another trade before spring training. DD said that he was looking to add another starting pitcher. I doubt that Elias was his target.
Aro is a decent throw in to the M's which should be at least noted. He's sort of a fringe prospect at his age (25 and ranked #20 in the system), but he was one of the few minor league arms who took a step forward last year and probably would have fought for a spot out of the pen this spring training. Obviously expendable, but the M's could have nabbed a 7th inning guy.
If they option Elias he also would not count against the luxury tax I believe (same situation as Craig), so the true savings to the team is greater than the $7 million because of the 50% tax savings on Elias.
Edit: Assuming Sox are over the luxury tax threshold (After Price and barring a big trade this seems likely in 2016)
I suggest you put more effort into posting and quit treating this like a chat room.