Agreed. I am ok with the trade as long as everybody performs as expected, which is not going to happen. Count in the volatility of relievers and then we are looking at a probable value in 2016 that does not look so good for the Red Sox. But we'll see. Trade looks ok on paper. I'm not buying Elias being anything more than a lefty reliever. On the other hand Jonathan Aro could be useful for Seattle. Had a good season in MILB.
So Aro, based on minor league numbers, looks useful, but Smith, despite 2 years of stellar MLB pitching could be volatile?
What are you basing your "which is not going to happen" opinion on? If you're going to voice your opinion on something please do us all the courtesy of letting us know what facts or reasoning you are relying on to form that opinion.
This line would fit in very well in Art Fern's Tea Time Movie.
Why? Because Lloyd McClendon (of the Toledo Mud Hens) and Rick Waits (former pitching coach, 'reassigned') were such awesome handlers of young pitchers? Look no further than Walker's and Paxton's injury history and performance inconsistency. Elias may never amount to much, but the change of address certainly does not hurt his upside.
No, just watched him pitch a couple of times. Does one have to scientifically prove every argument that one posts in here? He has considerable splits, the stuff is ok, but I like at least five Red Sox SP better and I read some scouting reports on ESPN, Baseball America etc. about Elias. That's it.
I didnt say that. Relievers are volatile. But the Red Sox are banking on Smith' success more than the Mariners are on Aro's in this trade.
This is where links to those reports would be useful. As would his splits. And no, one doesn't have to scientifically prove every argument here, but it's rather difficult to have an intelligent conversation if only one person has access to the information. That's why you need to provide that information. We need to know where you're coming from.
I feel like a lot of Cherington's speculative plays that have been criticized might work out too late for him, e.g. The Porcello extension.
Because Cherington might have (correctly) predicted in 2012 that elite relievers were more valuable than recognized, something that all of MLB seems to think now, and acted accordingly. That's interesting.
a. Unproven relievers are volatile. You contend Smith is unproven, but Aro could have higher upside.
It could be, if it's true. We don't have nearly enough evidence to confidently guess that it is, though. It's at least as likely that he simply made some bad trades that we are looking back at, squinting, and thinking we see some retroactive justification for. I'm a big Ben Cherington fan, but he made his share of bad moves. He left this team in very good shape, and Dombrowski has stepped in and managed to protect the things that Ben did so well while plugging in the needed additions to get this team back into the playoffs. I was skeptical that I would be happy with Dombrowski's handling of Ben's team, but I think the combination of what Ben set up and how Dombrowski is using it is looking very very good.
Smith is also a reliever by trade, not a starter converted to reliever when he couldn't cut it. He has thrown consistent workloads throughout his mL and ML stints with no substantial injuries. He is 26, in his physical prime. He had a bit of a tail in velocity late last season (discussed in this thread) that didn't hurt his production, which makes sense as he's an effective sinker/slider guy and those kinds of pitchers can often live quite well with only low 90's velocity instead of mid 90's. He basically checks as many "safe bet" boxes as you can come up with for anyone who throws a baseball for a living.
It may be one of those deals where both teams employ sophisticated analysis to find out that they're both likely to win the trade because the change of scenery reduces each player's risks and downsides. Miley is likely to eat up a lot of innings in Seattle in a slightly more efficient manner, given Safeco vs Fenway, and represents a very clear need for them; whereas Smith might reduce his injury risk and be less susceptible to falling off performance-wise in a 6th or 7th inning role -- one that will get skipped a lot when, say, Price is pitching. [The other two are lottery tickets whose risks/downsides probably don't change much, but whatever.]
I was at Safeco the day he shut out the Tigers in 2014. LOVED watching him, when he's on. But that doesn't stop me from believing he needs to improve.
a. Not true. I didnt say that Aro had higher upside. You are putting words in my mouth or you just misinterpreted. I can only rephrase to make you understand. Aro could be a throw-in of surprising value. The Red Sox are banking on Smith being really good more than the Mariners do Aro. This isnt hard to understand imo.
Even if comparing starters to relievers using WAR was a good idea (it's not), that 0.5 WAR difference is covered by Elias' 0.6 WAR. I'm using fWAR because it looks like you did. So if we are using that metric to evaluate this trade (again, not a good way to do it) the Sox are basically swapping ~2.5 wins above replacement for ~2.5 wins above replacement to reallocate those wins to another area of the roster. Now the pen is extremely deep instead of the rotation having too many pitchers looking for innings.
Nice one. Still, it doesn't answer the question. Comparing RP and SP by WAR. Why not?
You didn't ask me, but if you weren't really reading the thread, I talked a little about it earlier.
Understood. My point was, that, even if not perfect, fWAR values RP ok. Anyway comparing the value of SP and RP is something that even people in the baseball industry disagree about. We are probably not going to find a solution.
Is this a Rich Hill joke that I'm missing? Granted, he's younger than Lee, but...
Probably paranoid. Aroldis Chapman (1.34/3.10) had very similar home/away splits in 2014 and he pretty much evened out in 2015. It happens. The AL West doesn't have many doubles parks though, while Fenway and Toronto are the most extreme doubles parks in the AL, so who knows. Smith may very well have a higher ERA this year, but if he can keep striking dudes out an awesome clip, I think he'll be fine.
As noted upthread, his fielding independent numbers are great both home and away. I don't see this as any cause for concern.
Almost certainly paranoid.
Ugh. Too much on my mind these days. Thanks for the corrections, I can't think/type/reason straight.
The issue with this is simple. Cherington never traded for an elite reliever with a track record. I mean they traded for Melancon who was drilled in the AL East before and Hanarhan who had a SSS compared to his peers. Bailey had the stuff but everyone knew the guy was injury prone. Right idea? Sure. In all my years on here I was critical of him because of the focus on JAGs from the NL. DD right or wrong does what is necessary. But I don't think anyone will ever argue Ben isn't a smart guy.
Just curious if you're referring to someone other than Rodriquez or if you're thinking Miley's departure solidifies his spot in the rotation.
Not to put words in gryoung's mouth, but for me the Miley trade had more to do with Joe Kelly than it did Rodriguez. I've always felt that Rodriguez would be a lock for the rotation next year, and that there was close to zero chance he'd be starting in AAA. Although he cooled off a bit from his first few starts, he really showed he could handle MLB pitching to the tune of a 3.92 FIP in 120 innings. It's hard not to be excited about his upside.
Yeah, I think the chances that ERod would start the season in AAA outside of a absolutely disastrous spring training is about 0. Dombrowski said that he was essentially untouchable when teams came calling for pitching after the Price signing. I think the team is going to tie him to Price and make him follow him around.
There is an article about the Sox not looking at more pitching in trade or free agency because of the high cost on WEEI.com. In it, when asked about giving up Miley's "sure thing 200 innings", which were actually 193 last year, he mentions Porcello having a good shot at reaching 200, and that Rodriguez threw 175 innings last year and should be capable of more. My math based on Fangraphs had Eduardo at 170, but that still speaks well of his chance of being in the rotation, and that he could throw 180 or more pretty easily. We know Buchholz is probably not going to give us more than 130-150, and Kelly could prove ineffective, but even if that means there are 150 innings to parcel out between Owens, Johnson, Wright, and Elias, that's not a bad thing if it means we get to evaluate those players who look to be on the margin of the team. Ok, Kelly getting pulled from the rotation because he sucks means we'd have to eat some crap innings and maybe lose some games (not saying when it will, but if it will), and the same with a Buchholz injury, but the Sox do need to evaluate those guys and make some decisions, and injuries and ineffectiveness hit every rotation every year. The Sox seem well set up to weather it even without Miley.
I think it's worth noting that in addition to the 25 starts for Boston, Joe also made 4 starts in Pawtucket, pitching a total of 153.3 innings. That's a meager 5.3 innings per start, but with the bolstering of the pen, I think the Sox would be pretty pleased if Kelly's 2016 performance gives then that many starts and innings with something close to his late season results.
Not only this, but WAR calculations also don't account for the actual replacement players.
