Sox Rule 5 thread
- Thread starter JM3
- Start date
I am irrationally high on Johnfrank, but yes, I would much rather lose any non-bolded player than Johnfrank. & Railin Perez. & Alexis Hernandez. Mixed feelings on Ramirez & Bell, & don't care about losing the Ryans.
BOS does end up with a rule 5 selection after all:
View: https://twitter.com/Joelsherman1/status/1732492052321964172
View: https://twitter.com/Joelsherman1/status/1732492052321964172
Seems like an MLB-ready bullpen arm. Terrible his whole minor league career until moving to the bullpen last year.
Baseball America's RoboScout tabbed him as the best available pitcher.
Baseball America's RoboScout tabbed him as the best available pitcher.
Most of these guys headed out today were Dombrowski acquisitions.
#21 Drohan (could return) - Bloom
#39 Fernandez (could return) - Dombrowksi
#50 Johnfrank - Dombrowski
#88 Hernandez - Dombrowski
#89 Bell - Dombrowski
#97 Ramirez - Dombrowski
#113 Perez - Dombrowski
#135 Fitzgerald - Dombrowski
#167 Ammons - Bloom
#217 Miller - Bloom
Speier had been advised that the Red Sox were getting pillaged:
View: https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1732479604428833007
#21 Drohan (could return) - Bloom
#39 Fernandez (could return) - Dombrowksi
#50 Johnfrank - Dombrowski
#88 Hernandez - Dombrowski
#89 Bell - Dombrowski
#97 Ramirez - Dombrowski
#113 Perez - Dombrowski
#135 Fitzgerald - Dombrowski
#167 Ammons - Bloom
#217 Miller - Bloom
Speier had been advised that the Red Sox were getting pillaged:
View: https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1732479604428833007
I get it, especially since you spend so much time covering the minor leagues (and doing a really exceptional job) for us here, but I think it's kind of a product of the kind of bad MLB roster and the depth of the system at this point. Any of the guys taken could have been protected, but I count them at 39 on the 40 man right now (still dealing with COVID brain a bit, so I may be off), and they essentially need to add two SP's, a RHB outfielder and (in my opinion) a second baseman. And they need to do this with very few players on the 40 man who are likely to bring back any impact players in return, so chance are that a lot of the 40 man rosters is going to start being waived when they make these moves anyway, and the best candidates would have been the players just selected in the R5.
I am, admittedly, not as high on Drohan as you, so take that for what it's worth.
I do agree that losing a solidly prospectable catcher sucks.
Frustrating, since we still have middle relief nobodys on the 40-man like Weiss, Jacques and Llovera.
I am also disappointed that we didn't take Anthony Prato, who was my personal fave. But no one else took him either, so apparently he's not in a lot of demand.
Pretty positive their 40-man is at 38 (was 37 after Mills, Verdugo out, Weissert & Slaten in). But I'm more frustrated about the MiLB portion than the MLB portion because that seems like unforced errors to me & they can protect an additional 38 players outside of the 40-man on that.
I'm lower on Drohan than SoxProspects (he's my 21, their 15). & perhaps lower on him than the White Sox, but I think it's bad business to be losing these guys for nothing & we need to be doing better along the margins. Maybe this is residual mismanagement from the Bloom era & we'll see how things look moving forward. It's kind of crazy to make up 20% of the MLB portion of the R5 & 12.3% of the overall when we make up less than 4% of the league & don't have a particularly good roster.
If the new overlords just don't think Drohan has a future because he's not a hard throwing right hander with a good slider, or that Fernandez is too wild/injury prone, so be it, & I'm definitely happy to see how the rest of the off season plays out, but yeah. The MiLB stuff especially seems like some unforced errors were made.
& I hope you feel better!
Ryans out, Dick's in
In one day, we unloaded 80% of our Ryans, losing Fernandez to the R5, Fitzgerald & Miller to the AAA R5, & trading Ammons.
Zeferjahn better watch his back. Breslow clearly has some sort of past trauma involving someone named Ryan. Won't speculate further.
This is what I came here to post. Something doesn't add up. Either our pitching development is terrible or our evaluation on what makes a pitcher successful at the MLB level.
Honestly I hope it's the former because with Breslow, Bailey and recent additions etc.at least that is being addressed.
It’s especially frustrating that the prior regime was unable to convert any of these players into help for the major league team- lord knows there were enough holes.
Seems like a generous take. Could be that organizations don’t think the Sox org properly evaluates their players, or are unable to maximize their potential as well. Who knows really, probably a combination of factors.
Yeah... not really interested in relitigating Bloom & what this says, other than that I'm confused about letting interesting young players (who were mostly acquired under Dombrowski) go for free & protecting people who one would presume without being able to see the 38-person list, would be less interesting (imo).
In terms of MLB R5...I guess I will have to defer to Breslow on Drohan & Fernandez until he shows that he doesn't know what he's doing.
In terms of MLB R5...I guess I will have to defer to Breslow on Drohan & Fernandez until he shows that he doesn't know what he's doing.
Drohan doesn’t seem like the kind of guy who will really sting down the road to have lost. Another Chris Murphy type. Not useless but a replaceable arm especially if the new braintrust are basing everything on a stronger pitching apparatus.
No real thoughts on the others. We have about 8 Fernandez types in the system and the pen is growing into a real strength anyway (with lots of Bloom-era college draftees potentially on the way. Most likely scenario by far is every MILB prospect selected washes out eventually before even reaching the point of “interesting 3rd or 4th piece in a trade.” It is a little blip given the depth of the system
No real thoughts on the others. We have about 8 Fernandez types in the system and the pen is growing into a real strength anyway (with lots of Bloom-era college draftees potentially on the way. Most likely scenario by far is every MILB prospect selected washes out eventually before even reaching the point of “interesting 3rd or 4th piece in a trade.” It is a little blip given the depth of the system
Unsurprising lack of knowledge displayed by Cotillo lol
View: https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo/status/1732896729823863035
Better take:
View: https://twitter.com/derrik_maguire/status/1732480702279557561
View: https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo/status/1732896729823863035
Better take:
View: https://twitter.com/derrik_maguire/status/1732480702279557561
If he was elite at anything I'm pretty sure he would have caught more innings. But who knows? The Yankees have a ton of catchers. Maybe they just keep bringing in Yankees on each R5 to figure out how they get their pitchers to look so worthy of trading for.
Maybe they just think it will be useful to have someone help Fitts feel at home, or like the idea of having a utility guy who can also play catcher?
In his MiLB career (keep in mind he's 5'9):
1B - 150
C - 78
2B - 16
DH - 13
P - 3
3B - 1
Last year the 28 y/o had a 129 wRC+ in 188 PAs in AA & 47 wRC+ in 78 PAs in AAA.
I'm with you on this. The coming 40-man crunch was visible all season, I get that they were probably hoping Drohan would do better at AAA but he must have had some value at the trade deadline.
Parker & Hen-ri-kay pod on the R5 draft.
https://open.spotify.com/episode/0o1pftMxVvRCPQUdZnPboy?si=R7Zvz0oUR-mOpiWRMKAf_Q
I think Drohan will stick in Chicago. He should be fine with an off season to get it back together & should be passable in low leverage.
Disagree with Parker saying Drohan would need to start or pitch long relief. That would only be if he's actually pitching well (or they need a Bear Claw day), otherwise he'd probably just get a low leverage inning here & there like Ward did (35.1 innings in 26 games). One thing working against Drohan is that he had reverse splits last year, .794 OPS against righties & .881 against lefties, so he needs to figure that part out. I'm guessing it relates to the changeup being more effective than his slider at this point & throwing more changeups against righties. I think he'll be able to get the shape back on his breaking stuff over the off season, though.
I agree that Fernandez also probably isn't coming back, but I would probably have it slightly more likely because the Cards are more likely to be trying to win & Fernandez has blow up potential, too, with less incentive for them to keep him around since the upside of a 1-inning relief pitcher is less than of a potential future starter. For all the crap Drohan gets for his 6.47 ERA in AAA, Fernandez wasn't much better at 6.16. Both were obviously great in Portland (1.32 for Drohan & 1.77 for Fernandez), but just because Fernandez throws harder & has nastier stuff doesn't mean he is necessarily enough more ready for MLB to overcome the lower ceiling & better team.
I'll say 25% chance we get Drohan back & 40% chance we get Fernandez back.
https://open.spotify.com/episode/0o1pftMxVvRCPQUdZnPboy?si=R7Zvz0oUR-mOpiWRMKAf_Q
I think Drohan will stick in Chicago. He should be fine with an off season to get it back together & should be passable in low leverage.
Disagree with Parker saying Drohan would need to start or pitch long relief. That would only be if he's actually pitching well (or they need a Bear Claw day), otherwise he'd probably just get a low leverage inning here & there like Ward did (35.1 innings in 26 games). One thing working against Drohan is that he had reverse splits last year, .794 OPS against righties & .881 against lefties, so he needs to figure that part out. I'm guessing it relates to the changeup being more effective than his slider at this point & throwing more changeups against righties. I think he'll be able to get the shape back on his breaking stuff over the off season, though.
I agree that Fernandez also probably isn't coming back, but I would probably have it slightly more likely because the Cards are more likely to be trying to win & Fernandez has blow up potential, too, with less incentive for them to keep him around since the upside of a 1-inning relief pitcher is less than of a potential future starter. For all the crap Drohan gets for his 6.47 ERA in AAA, Fernandez wasn't much better at 6.16. Both were obviously great in Portland (1.32 for Drohan & 1.77 for Fernandez), but just because Fernandez throws harder & has nastier stuff doesn't mean he is necessarily enough more ready for MLB to overcome the lower ceiling & better team.
I'll say 25% chance we get Drohan back & 40% chance we get Fernandez back.
Yeah, listened to the SP pod today. Still confused about why they left so many openings on their AAA reserve list & Ian/Chris didn't seem to understand either.
Red Sox lost 9 guys, Yankees lost 7, & no one else lost more than 5. & other teams were surprised about who the Red Sox left out there.
It almost feels like they didn't like these players personally for whatever reason & used this as a way to move on culturally or something without the backlash of cutting them? Idk, best theory I have right now.
https://open.spotify.com/episode/6RZo08qu8dMRvD3FKwP6zZ?si=fao9155VQdWM04EwRzT97A
"Nerve decompression surgery" is what they are calling it. Apparently it provides some relief for the previously career altering neurogenic thoracic outlet syndrome: https://medicine.wustl.edu/news/surgery-helps-mlb-pitchers-overcome-nerve-compression-injuries/
Likely to open the season on the 60 day IL.
Likely to open the season on the 60 day IL.
Kind of crazy that Jose Ramirez was let go for nothing & has already jumped from A-Ball to AAA.
View: https://twitter.com/brendan_camp/status/1776724846388420735
I'll assume this is more of an indictment on the White Sox system than anything.
<checks stats>
Yup. Ramirez allowed 4 earned runs in 2.1 innings, including 3 hits, 3 walks & 2 hbp. In his defense...Norfolk.
View: https://twitter.com/brendan_camp/status/1776724846388420735
I'll assume this is more of an indictment on the White Sox system than anything.
<checks stats>
Yup. Ramirez allowed 4 earned runs in 2.1 innings, including 3 hits, 3 walks & 2 hbp. In his defense...Norfolk.
Seems like a good day to take an early look at the fallout from R5 day:
#21 Drohan (could return - MLB IL) - Hasn't pitched, injured.
View: https://twitter.com/VinnieDuber/status/1773407211076612100
#39 Fernandez (could return - MLB) - 6.2 IP, 4.05 ERA/3.87 xFIP
#50 Johnfrank (A-Ball) - 1-19 with 2 bb & 3 k's... .071 BABIP & -21 wRC+
#88 Hernandez (A-Ball) - 84 wRC+ in 40 PAs (106 last season)
#89 Bell (High-A) - 3.2 IP, 2.45 ERA/3.30 xFIP
#97 Ramirez (High-A) - His first start of the year was filling in for AAA & getting whooped by Norfolk, but then he went to A+ & threw 3.2 scoreless innings.
#113 Perez (High-A) - 4.2 IP, 1.93 ERA/5.20 xFIP
#135 Fitzgerald (AAA) - 125 wRC+ in 32 PAs.
#167 Ammons (A-Ball) - 3.1 IP, 2.70 ERA/4.76 xFIP
#217 Miller (AAA) - 8.2 IP, 3.12 ERA/3.09 xFIP
On the other side, we added 2 guys that day...
Justin Slaten, who has outperformed all of them:
12.1 IP, 0.73 ERA/3.60 xFIP
View: https://twitter.com/TJStats/status/1781359992009859340
& Mickey Gasper (AA) who has a 158 wRC+ in 30 PAs.
View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1772754972439904691
Justin Slaten, who has outperformed all of them:
12.1 IP, 0.73 ERA/3.60 xFIP
View: https://twitter.com/TJStats/status/1781359992009859340
& Mickey Gasper (AA) who has a 158 wRC+ in 30 PAs.
View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1772754972439904691
#21 Drohan - He's back & on WooSox dev list. Been a pretty lost season so far.
#39 Fernandez - 49 IP for Cardinals, 2.57 ERA (3.80 xFIP). We definitely have pitched lots of guys worse this season & traded for worse this week...
#50 Johnfrank - Turned it around after slow start. Promoted to High-A after putting up 120 wRC+ in 229 PAs. 10.5% bb, 12.7% k. Only 83 wRC+ in 54 PAs in A+, prob due to .237 BABIP.
#88 Hernandez - 44 wRC+ in 181 PAs in A-Ball...38.7% k.
#89 Bell - 4.73 ERA (4.10 xFIP) in 40 innings in High-A. He's 26.
#97 Ramirez - Played 1 AAA game 4/6 & 1 AA game 7/10, but the rest of the season has been in A+, 50.1 IP, 5.72 ERA (5.80 xFIP).
#113 Perez - 35 IP in A+, 3.34 ERA (4.66 xFIP). His 11.1 k/9 & 5.4 bb/9 are almost identical to what he did for Salem last season.
#135 Fitzgerald - 93 wRC+ in 259 PAs For Royals AAA.
#167 Ammons - A-Ball: 2.88 ERA (4.18 xFIP) in 25 IP. High-A: 1.59 ERA (5.57 xFIP) in 5.2 IP.
#217 Miller - 2.79 ERA (4.35 xFIP) in 51.2 IP for Angels AAA.
I think they prioritized guys with options since they were already locked in to Mata who didn't have any (& ended up picking up Slaten). Of course Fernandez would have had options if they had put him on the 40...
It seems like an unforced error. Yes, he had a 6.16 ERA in 32.1 IP in Worcester after being called up last year, but that was on 10.3 k/9, 2.9 bb/9, a 4.09 xFIP & a .356 BABIP.
I assume it comes down to they just didn't think enough of his arsenal to prioritize him & hoped no one else would take him, but who knows?
I just thought it was a weird outlier from the way they had operated as soon as Breslow came in. Fernandez's slider has always graded out as a plus or plus-plus pitch. That seems like the exact type of guy they would have prioritized keeping. Seeing Mata and others still there while he's been very good this year is indeed an unforced error.
It could have been a matter of going off their pitch tracking stuff & not having enough time with him before having to make a decision.
If you look at the pitch movement, his slider is a bit below average & doesn't necessarily profile as a pitch that someone should be able to throw 46% of the time with such success.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/ryan-fernandez-681676?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb
Who knows, though?
Fernandez was also considered an injury risk, which was an additional variable that went into consideration.
I wonder why Ryan Fernandez would be considered a bigger injury risk than ~all pitchers. I do remember hearing something about it but innings by year...
'18 - 26
'19 - 43.1
'20 - N/A
'21 - 52.2
'22 - 39.2
'23 - 54.1
Seems to me like the bigger issue is that he's another 1-inning reliever so the upside is somewhat limited if they don't project him to dominate during his inning. But idk.
Rule 5 guys last update of the year. The quoted stuff is from 7/31:
7 IP, 5 ER, 9 hits, 8 bb, 8 k
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/alexis-hernandez/sa3018413/stats?position=2B/SS
Our ex-Alexis had a 99 wRC+ in 177 PAs in A-Ball (after a 106 for us last year in 174 PAs).
4.15 ERA (5.07 xFIP) in 13 IP for Angels.
Started 2 games for WooSox.
7 IP, 5 ER, 9 hits, 8 bb, 8 k
66.2 IP, 3.51 ERA, (3.91 xFIP), 2.9 bb/9, 10.3 k/9
The BABIP didn't end up any better (.235) & the wRC+ got worse (47). The 21 y/o ended up with 114 High-A PAs.
Oops...I pulled stats for the wrong Alexis Hernandez last time...
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/alexis-hernandez/sa3018413/stats?position=2B/SS
Our ex-Alexis had a 99 wRC+ in 177 PAs in A-Ball (after a 106 for us last year in 174 PAs).
Bell ended the season with a 4.82 ERA (3.89 xFIP) in 52.1 IP in High-A. He's 26.5.
Ended up with 73.2 A+ innings, 6.11 ERA (5.53 xFIP), 4.6 bb/9, 6 k/9.
Ended up with 52.2 IP in A+, 3.42 ERA (4.43 xFIP), 10.6 k/9, 5.5 bb/9. He pitched 2 awful games in AA, 1.2 IP, 16.20 ERA.
97 wRC+ in 431 PAs for Royals AAA.
High-A: 1.33 ERA (3.98 xFIP) in 20.1 IP, 5.8 bb/9, 11.1 k/9.
2.45 ERA (4.22 xFIP) in 62.1 IP for Angels AAA.
4.15 ERA (5.07 xFIP) in 13 IP for Angels.