Sox Rule 5 thread
- Thread starter JM3
- Start date
Why would anyone worry about Fitzgerald being taken in rule 5? He turns 30 next year. That really doesn’t fit the profile of guys who are usually taken.
Wouldn't say its a worry, just an observation. Team clearly doesn't value him much if they aren't even protecting him from the secondary part of Rule 5.
It's the MiLB portion that would be a concern (if you wanted to keep him), not the MLB portion. Once someone is taken in the MiLB draft they're just gone & don't need to play at any specific level.
It's how we got Joe Jacques (& Kaleb Ort).
SP's Rule 5 picks odds...
Bastardo 30%
Castro 0-3%
Cellucci 10%
Cepeda 10%
Drohan 60-70%
JDE 0%
Fernandez 50%
Fitzgerald 0% MLB, 75% MiLB
Gambrell 35-40%
Hagenman 20%
GJimenez 0% MLB 10% MiLB
Koss 0%
Liu 5%
Paulino 0%
Politi 0-10%
Scott 15-25%
Sena 0-10%
Song, BVB, JWY, Zef No
Bastardo 30%
Castro 0-3%
Cellucci 10%
Cepeda 10%
Drohan 60-70%
JDE 0%
Fernandez 50%
Fitzgerald 0% MLB, 75% MiLB
Gambrell 35-40%
Hagenman 20%
GJimenez 0% MLB 10% MiLB
Koss 0%
Liu 5%
Paulino 0%
Politi 0-10%
Scott 15-25%
Sena 0-10%
Song, BVB, JWY, Zef No
Jonathan Mayo did a R5 preview for mlb.com. The draft is Wednesday & the Red Sox have the 12th pick.
https://www.mlb.com/news/players-of-interest-2023-rule-5-draft
Red Sox mentioned are Angel Bastardo, Shane Drohan & Brian Van Belle.
https://www.mlb.com/news/players-of-interest-2023-rule-5-draft
Red Sox mentioned are Angel Bastardo, Shane Drohan & Brian Van Belle.
The R5 is going to be at 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday. It's interesting that the Royals & Rockies (#2 & #3) have full 40-man rosters. Trying to find the deadline to make sure you have space on your 40 prior to the R5 draft, but haven't found it, yet.
On the flip side, the Padres have 31 on their 40-man & are obviously waiting for the Yankees to fill in the rest.
Was listening to the MassLive pod with McAdam & Smith and they talked about the Rule 5. Smith expects Drohan to be drafted & maybe others.
Buuuut McAdam has joined THE CLUB with Chad Jennings by trying to tell me about Stephen Scott's right handed bat.
& Smitty tried to tell me that that Paulino is an OF/IF which is much more defensible as Paulino has 14 more OF games (all in '22) than Scott has right handed at bats.
View: https://twitter.com/Sean_McAdam/status/1730353996127260692
Buuuut McAdam has joined THE CLUB with Chad Jennings by trying to tell me about Stephen Scott's right handed bat.
& Smitty tried to tell me that that Paulino is an OF/IF which is much more defensible as Paulino has 14 more OF games (all in '22) than Scott has right handed at bats.
View: https://twitter.com/Sean_McAdam/status/1730353996127260692
In the AFL Ho'opii-Tuionetoa (Rangers 8th round pick in 2019) did the following:
9 games
9.2 innings
0 runs
4 hits
3 walks
10 strikeouts
0.00 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 2.8 bb/9, 9.3 k/9
I believe batters hit .125 against him (4-32). He is 23 & hasn't pitcher higher than High-A other than the AFL, but he's the sort of guy you could probably throw in your bullpen & use somewhat credibly in low leverage situations at first.
9 games
9.2 innings
0 runs
4 hits
3 walks
10 strikeouts
0.00 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 2.8 bb/9, 9.3 k/9
I believe batters hit .125 against him (4-32). He is 23 & hasn't pitcher higher than High-A other than the AFL, but he's the sort of guy you could probably throw in your bullpen & use somewhat credibly in low leverage situations at first.
Some other potential R5 guys who might be a fit for the Red Sox...
RP Austin Pope (DBacks) - 25
https://rumbunter.com/posts/pittsburgh-pirates-five-potential-rule-5-draft-picks-to-consider-asa-lacy
1B/DH Blaine Crim (Rangers) - 26
The article also mentions a LHB 1B which seems like a no-go, & HOOPTY
View: https://twitter.com/ProspectsWorldW/status/1720653843506323514
https://twinsdaily.com/news-rumors/minnesota-twins/4-eligible-players-the-twins-should-consider-in-the-rule-5-draft-r15350/
RP Austin Pope (DBacks) - 25
RP Justin Slaten (Rangers) - 26
UT Anthony Prato (Twins) - 25
RP Asa Lacey (Royals) - 24
The 5th guy mentioned in the article was Ryan Fernandez, but I'm looking at people to draft in this post.
https://rumbunter.com/posts/pittsburgh-pirates-five-potential-rule-5-draft-picks-to-consider-asa-lacy
1B/DH Blaine Crim (Rangers) - 26
RP CJ Van Eyk (Blue Jays) - 25
View: https://twitter.com/milb_central/status/1721338373464322122
The article also mentions a LHB 1B which seems like a no-go, & HOOPTY
View: https://twitter.com/ProspectsWorldW/status/1720653843506323514
https://twinsdaily.com/news-rumors/minnesota-twins/4-eligible-players-the-twins-should-consider-in-the-rule-5-draft-r15350/
I totally missed the news that the Sox protected WIkelman/Perales over Drohan. I thought Drohan was much closer to being MLB-ready then the other two?
Definitely closer in terms of level, but lower upside & probably less utility as an MLB reliever right now. I don't think it's a great choice to leave him unprotected, & I think he'll probably be taken, but he was pretty bad in AAA last year (6.47 ERA, 5.87 xFIP in 89 innings) after being great in AA (1.32 ERA, 3.27 xFIP in 34 innings). He had something like a top 15 changeup in MiLB last year according to the metrics, & once he gets a couple things cleaned up, he could be pretty useful.
I definitely understand taking that risk. He walked 6.4 per 9 in Worcester & was kind of a mess mechanically, & lost a couple mph off his fastball, & is unlikely to be a useful MLB pitcher this year, & his upside is probably like 4th starter. But I don't think it's necessarily a good idea.
Picture having an older brother who is better than you at everything. He’s better, but being brothers you have similar qualities that identify yourselves as siblings to others. Drohan’s bigger brother is Ort. He sucks. If there was a 80 man roster he shouldn’t be on it.
Ort is a hard throwing RH reliever who pitched great in AAA but awful in MLB. Don't really see the correlation to a softer throwing LH starter who pitched terrible in AAA. There is a 90-man roster (to protect from the MiLB Rule 5), & Drohan is on it.
Some more guys out there to draft who could be fits...
SP Coleman Crow (Mets) - 23
SP Coleman Crow (Mets) - 23
RP R.J. Dabovich (Giants) - 25
RP Juan Sanchez (Giants) - 23
RP Evan Reifert (Rays) - 24
https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2023/12/5/23988425/2023-rule-5-draft-preview
Prato seems like an intriguing fit for the Red Sox.
He was helped a lot at AAA by former Red Sox player Nate Spears.
https://twinsdaily.com/news-rumors/twins-minor-league/change-of-scenery-has-resulted-in-anthony-pratos-career-best-hitting-stretch-r14707/
Prato has played 2B, SS, 3B and OF. He's even got 38 innings at 1B, which is odd for a guy listed at 5'9".
If they like his defense at 2B, I'd like to see us draft him and have him battle it out with Reyes and see if he can make the team.
This is a pretty good listen on the R5 Draft. He talks about 20 different prospects, but the only Red Sox guy was actually CJ Liu:
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0wuRibnSoA
He puts the odds of CJ Liu being drafted at around 60% & thinks other people are sleeping on converting a starter who strikes out so many people to the bullpen.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0wuRibnSoA
He puts the odds of CJ Liu being drafted at around 60% & thinks other people are sleeping on converting a starter who strikes out so many people to the bullpen.
Can’t do any more than dominate what’s in front of you.
I’m fully expectant that one of these (or others you’ve listed) pitchers prove attractive to the Sox. This should be a place where Breslow can flex, as he can draw from a huge population across teams using criteria that would be presumably unique to him, or at least him and his smaller number of peers. Go get some.
Yeah, I think someone to slot into the bullpen is the most likely route, especially since they have guys in prominent positions who were involved in the the pitching of 3 different organizations last year (Cubs, Giants & Twins).
Them getting guys into the system who are the types that they think are most likely to succeed will be really important, whether as it relates to the smaller, incremental stuff like bringing in Olivarez & Benitez & what they do in the R5 draft, & when it comes to the bigger picture stuff like which high end free agents & trades they pursue.
Hunter Noll did an R5 preview where he listed 5 prospects the Red Sox could lose.
His list was Drohan, Fernandez, Gambrell, BVB & Scott.
https://bosoxinjection.com/posts/5-prospects-boston-red-sox-fans-should-prepare-to-lose-in-the-rule-5-draft-01hg7qw9p07v
His list was Drohan, Fernandez, Gambrell, BVB & Scott.
https://bosoxinjection.com/posts/5-prospects-boston-red-sox-fans-should-prepare-to-lose-in-the-rule-5-draft-01hg7qw9p07v
Rule 5 Draft has started.
Mitch Spence from Yankees 1st pick by A's.
View: https://twitter.com/JonathanMayo/status/1732474774729679184
Mitch Spence from Yankees 1st pick by A's.
View: https://twitter.com/JonathanMayo/status/1732474774729679184
Live stream audio here, it just started and they are doing roll call of teams present
https://www.mlb.com/news/rule-5-draft-results-2023
https://www.mlb.com/news/rule-5-draft-results-2023
Yup. Not great work on this by the Sox...
10 total guys drafted, 2 Red Sox.
View: https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo/status/1732476386441400773
New to following the Rule 5 process. So now they go into the AAA phases. Does that mean a team needs to keep the player they select in AAA or the Majors?
For the MiLB portion the guy can go to literally any level & they don't get offered back, but it's a larger list of protected players.
A's passing with the 1st pick in the MiLB portion of this draft is aggressively cheap (?) & kinda odd, but oh well.
Jose Ramirez got drafted by the White Sox from Salem. Now they have 2 of our guys.
& the Cards took JOHNFRANK so they have 2, too. No idea why he wouldn't be protected. Seems dumb.
Jose Ramirez got drafted by the White Sox from Salem. Now they have 2 of our guys.
& the Cards took JOHNFRANK so they have 2, too. No idea why he wouldn't be protected. Seems dumb.
Blue Jays just took OF Alexis Hernandez from Salem & the Astros just took Railin Perez...
Out so far...
#21 Drohan (could return)
#39 Fernandez (could return)
#50 Johnfrank
#88 Hernandez
#97 Ramirez
#113 Perez
In...an old catcher.
Not sure wtf we are doing with this protection list.
Out so far...
#21 Drohan (could return)
#39 Fernandez (could return)
#50 Johnfrank
#88 Hernandez
#97 Ramirez
#113 Perez
In...an old catcher.
Not sure wtf we are doing with this protection list.
It's amazing that we can both be so bad at pitching & have so many pitchers taken away from us because we don't protect them.
RP Ryan Miller from Portland just got taken in the 2nd round after we took him from the Yankees last time. I have him #219.
Red Sox pass smh
Hopefully they have big plans for all these new openings. Weird they wanted no unprotected pitcher from any of the Cubs (Breslow), Giants (Bailey) or Twins (Willard).
But maybe they did a better job of protecting interesting players.
Hopefully they have big plans for all these new openings. Weird they wanted no unprotected pitcher from any of the Cubs (Breslow), Giants (Bailey) or Twins (Willard).
But maybe they did a better job of protecting interesting players.
View: https://twitter.com/IanCundall/status/1732481817578512890
On to the 3rd round.
Cards take Ryan Fitzgerald (#135).
On to the 3rd round.
Cards take Ryan Fitzgerald (#135).
When I did my guesses on 11/20 regarding who would be part of the list of 38 names who are not on the 40 who were eligible for R5 that would be protected, I included Johnfrank & Perez, & already was told by SP that Hernandez, Bell, Ramirez & Fitzgerald weren't on the list.
I am a bit concerned by how out of step the Red Sox seem with the rest of the league, even though for the most part none of this is really likely to matter a lot.
I am a bit concerned by how out of step the Red Sox seem with the rest of the league, even though for the most part none of this is really likely to matter a lot.
I don't have access to the list of who was protected, so hard to say. But here were my guesses after hearing the info on a few of the guys who were unprotected on the SP Pod: