March/April: Red Sox discussion, observations and trend tracking...AKA It's not all about the Benjamins

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

It's a natural question. One thing to look at is Bailey's tenure with the Giants 2020-2023. How did those staffs fare injury-wise?

Depends on the year.

2022 they were pretty healthy. Webb and Rodon both started 30 plus. Cobb started 28. Wood started 26. In 2023, not so much. Webb remained dependably excellent (33 starts) and Cobb hit 28 again. Rodon was in NY and got hurt again (as he does basically every year) but that isn't something that can be attributed to Bailey because, again, it happens almost every year.

Relative to this year - Pivetta is the one I question. He's been pretty damn dependable his entire career. Same for Giolito. Whitlock, I mean, he also gets hurt every year. Bello I seem to recall missing the first couple of weeks last year (forearm, I think) so maybe he's just a guy that takes a while to really get going. That'll bear watching to see if he comes right back and then posts every 5 days (like last year) or not.

I'm certainly no expert, but I found this interesting reading about pitch type and stress on the arm. It looks as though the two pitches that Pivetta favors (4 seam and sweeper) are quite strenuous for a pitcher but that change was made pre Bailey and Breslow, so it would be tough to blame anything on that change.

https://rocklandpeakperformance.com/how-different-are-torque-levels-across-various-pitch-types/

My take away - of course Whitlock got hurt, that happens all the time. Pivetta and Giolito are straight up bad luck. Kind of like the difference between O'Neill getting hurt in various ways (of course he will) vs Casas (are you effing kidding me). Bello is the TBD of the bunch.

 

[jmcc5400]

It can’t be sustainable, but when was the last time this team had a 25 game stretch with a sub 2.50 ERA?

 

[Fishy1]

Team is 7th in SO/9 and 3rd in BB/9, making them fourth in SO/W ratio. Notably, there's a huge gap in SO/W between the top teams and everybody else. Minnesota and Seattle are sitting around 3.9, then there's a drop to the Orioles, who are at 3.65, then to the Red sox at 3.49, and then... bottom falls out. The next closest team is the Tigers, at 3.09, and then it's 2.95 and a slew of teams until league average at 2.53.

Which is just to say the Sox are among the very best at limiting contact and free baserunners, two crucial skills. They're also top ten so far in HR/9, at .8, which leads to a league-leading 3.25 FIP. Despite the onslaught of defensive miscues (and to be clear, there have been a lot of web gems too), they're fourth in runs allowed per game, with only the Royals, Guardians, and Yankees ahead of them, and just about tied with Seattle. They've got a league-leading 21 errors, but they actually have more company than you might think. Six teams with 17 errors, one with 17 (NYM), two with 19 (NYY and Pirates), and the A's have 20. League average is 14 errors.They've got a league-leading 21 errors, but they actually have more company than you might think. Six teams with 17 errors, one with 17 (NYM), two with 19 (NYY and Pirates), and the A's have 20. League average is 14 errors.

Offense is barely above league average by OPS+ (103). They're about league average in BBs, are second in the league in strikeouts (in the bad way) -- but they are 7th in total bases, so there's that. They're only behind the Orioles in home runs. Four of their guys have been injured or playing only intermittently. God only knows when we'll get Casas back (or what we'll be without him), but Devers, O'Neill and Abreu should all be playing more, I hope, going forward. And the others -- Yoshida,

I expect the pitching to dip, and the offense to come on (some). Casas and Devers were playing at or slightly above their projections. Wong has obviously been out of his mind, and O'Neill should be very good to great, but probably not a 207 OPS+ good. Abreu, too, is not a 170 OPS+ guy. Duran, at 98+, is disappointing, but pretty much projected, and Yoshida at 102 does not make me happy, but is only slightly worse than he was last year. Valdez, Reyes, and Rafaela cannot be as bad as they've been. Or I hope they can't.

The team awaits hopefully good news about the pitchers, and the return of Grissom and Casas. And no more fucking injuries.