March/April: Red Sox discussion, observations and trend tracking...AKA It's not all about the Benjamins

[YTF]

Starting this thread as a place to discuss the actual on field aspects of the team while hopefully keeping the $$$ talk for other threads.
Edit: At the suggestion of a couple of well respected dopes in an attempt to avoid a megathread well be starting a new thread each month for discussion, observations and the tracking of current trends. The thread's title has been changed to reflect this. Again, please refrain from discussing anything concerning finances as we have multiple threads where those discussions are being had.

I'll start with a few words on the opener. Bello going five and giving up two runs was fine. O'Neill and Devers went deep and everyone in the starting lineup got at least one hit. A good start to a season that is beginning differently from any other season that I can recall. Never mind the fact that they open with a four game series with no off day, but seven games in seven days on the west coast to open up the season (ten in eleven days) seems way outside the norm. Let's aim high and finish up 7-3 before the home opener!!!

 

[loneredseat]

What an enjoyable game. Loved the energy and the defense, and the speed and the youth. Only negative was Joely. Hopefully he can get things together and contribute.

 

[Max Power]

I already have concerns about the amount of work the pen is going to have to handle. Usually the first few weeks of the season you ease the starters in with 80-90 pitch games. But with 10 games in 11 days, you'll need to squeeze more than you'd like out of them the first time through the rotation. Winckowski is going to be a very important man these next two weeks. Let's hope Pivetta can get through 7 tonight and give most of the rest of the staff the night off.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

This lineup is going to be a pain in the ass for opposing pitchers. Even more so when Grissom returns. It’s deep and relentless.

 

[Salem's Lot]

The best part about that game last night was that they caught the ball and made all of the plays defensively that MLB players usually make. There were very few games last year where they did that.

 

[CoffeeNerdness]

This season definitely has a different feel at the start than recent seasons. Fewer health concerns, a more complete roster, a potentially much better defense, and a budding star in Ceddanne who brings energy and excitement. Yoshida as the every day DH is going to be super helpful as well.

I'm so thankful that they moved on from Bloom. I don't know what type of team he would have built for 2024, but I'm fairly confident it would have worse than the team that's out there today. Dude was a disaster.

 

[BaseballJones]

I like hits being spread throughout the lineup. I like their aggressiveness on the base paths (even with a CS). I like a relatively low number of Ks (just 7). I like the defense. Very good opening game. Lots to like.

 

[simplicio]

What an enjoyable game. Loved the energy and the defense, and the speed and the youth. Only negative was Joely. Hopefully he can get things together and contribute.

Joely was obvious a problem with the HR, but I thought the JP Crawford AB was petty interesting.

These looked like terrible pitches on camera, but Crawford is a good hitter and he appeared paralyzed the whole time.

 

[joe dokes]

Joely was obvious a problem with the HR, but I thought the JP Crawford AB was petty interesting.
View attachment 80140
These looked like terrible pitches on camera, but Crawford is a good hitter and he appeared paralyzed the whole time.

Throwing changeups for strikes while down in the count is a recipe for dominating pitching. That was Okajima's calling card.

 

[Stan Papi Was Framed]

great to see 3 SB in the 1st game (and Duran sure looked like he could have stolen home as well). Watching Rafaela turn what looked like a clear double into a triple was an eye opener. Martin looked like Martin. Very nice to see O'Neill contribute right away.(and, as others have noted, the whole lineup chipped in--2 hits from Wong were also nice to see, not to mention Devers starting out with 2 extra base hits).

 

[brandonchristensen]

I enjoyed the game a lot. I have been down on this team for several years now because of the churn through short term deals and no real identity.

But now I'm loving the youth movement we have going on. And the defense was spectacular.

 

[HfxBob]

That home run by Devers shows why he's a special hitter. Absolutely crushed to left center. Kind of like the reverse image of many of Manny's opposite field shots.

 

[Rovin Romine]

The best part about that game last night was that they caught the ball and made all of the plays defensively that MLB players usually make. There were very few games last year where they did that.

I think this is underselling the improved IF defense. Story made some difficult plays, not just routine ones. Valdez had a great stop as well. Casas was certainly less pinned to the bag than he was for half the prior year.

 

[Fishercat]

The Rafaela Triple was such a fun clip. One of my favorite things about baseball is when everyone on the field knows what's going to happen, except the one guy running the bases who feels very differently and turns it into something else.

All three clips really from the MILB/AAAA thread: three of the most enjoyable things in baseball: a difficult to hit homerun, a player sheer efforting out an XBH, and a filthy as heck pitch just erasing a hitter.

The lineup may be a downer when we hit those points in the season where 3-4 key guys are simultaneously in a slump, but there's a ton of excitement to be had. Not gonna say they'll be in the playoffs with the rotation the way it is, but I genuinely think they'll exceed expectations if it doesn't all collapse.

 

[LoLsapien]

No useful content to add here, but I am pumped for this lineup. Speed on the basepaths with C and D, mashing bats at 1st and 3rd, real deal D at short and CF, Eye Candy McMuscles in RF, and I'm an Emmanuel fanboy that's also really looking forward to seeing what Grissom can bring. Meanwhile, I think we'll be seeing Teal behind the dish sooner than later. A lot to like about this team.

 

[YTF]

This lineup is going to be a pain in the ass for opposing pitchers. Even more so when Grissom returns. It’s deep and relentless.

Agreed, if this offense can stay relatively healthy I think that they may take a bit of pressure off the rotation. Yes the offense had good numbers last season, but it was a very feast or famine type of season for long stretches. If this year's squad can produce similar numbers with more consistancy it might allow starters to stick around for an extra inning every so often on days when they don't have their best stuff.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

No useful content to add here, but I am pumped for this lineup. Speed on the basepaths with C and D, mashing bats at 1st and 3rd, real deal D at short and CF, Eye Candy McMuscles in RF, and I'm an Emmanuel fanboy that's also really looking forward to seeing what Grissom can bring. Meanwhile, I think we'll be seeing Teal behind the dish sooner than later. A lot to like about this team.

Come on now, you have to spell “Enmanuel“ correctly to be a true fanboy!

 

[HfxBob]

It's kind of a shock to see the Red Sox with so much youth out there on the field, even before the arrival of the big three.

 

[LoLsapien]

Come on now, you have to spell “Enmanuel“ correctly to be a true fanboy!

It was an autocorrect error! I swear!!!!

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

It's kind of a shock to see the Red Sox with so much youth out there on the field, even before the arrival of the big three.

And 23 year old Grissom

 

[jmcc5400]

It's kind of a shock to see the Red Sox with so much youth out there on the field, even before the arrival of the big three.

Nothing against Duvall or Justin Turner, who acquitted themselves fine, but this is so much better. A team with athleticism, speed and youthful elan is going to be so much more fun to follow even if they end up on the margins of .500.

 

[Yaz4Ever]

The best part about that game last night was that they caught the ball and made all of the plays defensively that MLB players usually make. There were very few games last year where they did that.

and no openers ... let's hope we are able to avoid that all season

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

It's kind of a shock to see the Red Sox with so much youth out there on the field, even before the arrival of the big three.

A youth movement not seen in these parts since, oh, 2015-2016.

But yes, definitely exciting. I can't wait for the west coast trip to end so watching it isn't such a pain in the butt.

 

[simplicio]

Game one no injuries! I was seriously concerned when O'Neill did a flip coming out of his excellent throw in the first that he was going to wind up out for the season. He looked awesome out there and I really hope he can stay healthy. I don't know what it is about his body language that made me think all his plays at the wall were gone, but he seems very capable.

Real improvement from Valdez is a huge relief. Grissom may be more of an unknown than any of us care to admit, so having a backup plan that can do a decent job out there feels like valuable insurance.

Wong may make for an interesting year. He showed big improvement in ST that I hope carries over. He'll still strike out on pitches a mile away, but also get hits on pitches a mile away?

 

[YTF]

A youth movement not seen in these parts since, oh, 2015-2016.

But yes, definitely exciting. I can't wait for the west coast trip to end so watching it isn't such a pain in the butt.

On the flip side of the coin, I sort of like this west coast swing to open the season. As early as the season is starting this schedule is favorable as far as actually being able to get the games in without weather concerns lessening the threat of losing an off day later in the season or having to schedule a double header which is never ideal. Also, it just seems nice to get this trip out of the way early.

 

[chrisfont9]

What an enjoyable game. Loved the energy and the defense, and the speed and the youth. Only negative was Joely. Hopefully he can get things together and contribute.

He shook it off (although walking off after the second out was... you have to laugh I guess). It wasn't even that terrible a pitch.

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

Nothing against Duvall or Justin Turner, who acquitted themselves fine, but this is so much better. A team with athleticism, speed and youthful elan is going to be so much more fun to follow even if they end up on the margins of .500.

Feels much more like something is actually being built, yeah?

If the team were closer to high level competing, sure, maybe the old solid guys are a good fit, but I don't think any of us could have handled another season not just of middling performance but a roster somewhat clogged by they-are-what-they-are older players who the GM could never figure out how to trade.

We are slowly but surely turning over the roster to no longer have so many freaking placeholder guys all over the diamond and pitching staff.

 

[soxhop411]

A youth movement not seen in these parts since, oh, 2015-2016.

But yes, definitely exciting. I can't wait for the west coast trip to end so watching it isn't such a pain in the butt.

Actually its even rarer.
View: https://twitter.com/SoxNotes/status/1773459397080948930?s=20

This is only the 4th time in the DH era that all 10 players starting for the Red Sox on Opening Day are 31 years old or younger (1995, 1998, 2003, 2024). They went on to reach the Postseason in each of the previous 3 seasons it happened.

 

[greenmountains]

I'm a Rafaela fanboy....the batting eye seemed improved in ST. And it looked real in game one (yes, I know...very small, irrelevant sample size). Pencil him into CF for the then 12 years. I like how Tyler O'Neal plays the game. I like that Trevor Story seems to calm everyone down. I think that Casa will be average defensively and a MF'er at the plate. I hope big Rafey can cut down his swing and put up some 900/950 OPS years as he's entering his prime.

I'm still not sold on Duran being sustainable....but his speed is game changing (he was 60 feet down the line in the 9th). But, I don't think he will be anything other that serviceable defensively. Hopefully, I'm wrong and he is the real deal....and we can flip him for a SP.

This youth movement is unbelievable...and the big three are a year away. It's crazy and exciting.

I like the west coast swing this early.... 1 - get it out of the way; and 2 - avoid baseball in the northeast at 42 degrees with rain outs and snow outs. Please just don't go 3-7. Getting to April 9th with a west coast trip done and no game at Fenway is a plus.

 

[tims4wins]

@YTF or dopes could you please update the thread title to fix the typo (seaon)

Edit: that was fast!

 

[jmcc5400]

I'm a Rafaela fanboy....the batting eye seemed improved in ST. And it looked real in game one (yes, I know...very small, irrelevant sample size). Pencil him into CF for the then 12 years. I like how Tyler O'Neal plays the game. I like that Trevor Story seems to calm everyone down. I think that Casa will be average defensively and a MF'er at the plate. I hope big Rafey can cut down his swing and put up some 900/950 OPS years as he's entering his prime.

I'm still not sold on Duran being sustainable....but his speed is game changing (he was 60 feet down the line in the 9th). But, I don't think he will be anything other that serviceable defensively. Hopefully, I'm wrong and he is the real deal....and we can flip him for a SP.

This youth movement is unbelievable...and the big three are a year away. It's crazy and exciting.

I like the west coast swing this early.... 1 - get it out of the way; and 2 - avoid baseball in the northeast at 42 degrees with rain outs and snow outs. Please just don't go 3-6 (including the Twins)....or 4-7 (including the Braves). Getting to May 10th without a home game at 5-6 and one west coast trip done....that exciting to think of.

Duran's subpar instincts and weak arm are a lot less of a problem in LF. I think he's probably and average to plus defender at that position and he and Rafaela are going to cover a ton of ground. I'm not sure if he's a lead-off guy, but I'm happy enough to see how he does.

 

[chrisfont9]

I'm a Rafaela fanboy....the batting eye seemed improved in ST. And it looked real in game one (yes, I know...very small, irrelevant sample size). Pencil him into CF for the then 12 years. I like how Tyler O'Neal plays the game. I like that Trevor Story seems to calm everyone down. I think that Casa will be average defensively and a MF'er at the plate. I hope big Rafey can cut down his swing and put up some 900/950 OPS years as he's entering his prime.

I'm still not sold on Duran being sustainable....but his speed is game changing (he was 60 feet down the line in the 9th). But, I don't think he will be anything other that serviceable defensively. Hopefully, I'm wrong and he is the real deal....and we can flip him for a SP.

This youth movement is unbelievable...and the big three are a year away. It's crazy and exciting.

I like the west coast swing this early.... 1 - get it out of the way; and 2 - avoid baseball in the northeast at 42 degrees with rain outs and snow outs. Please just don't go 3-7. Getting to April 9th with a west coast trip done and no game at Fenway is a plus.

That rocket to center, I knew off the bat he had it. Everyone was freaking out around us but you could see him get a great jump just gliding back into the gap.

 

[joe dokes]

On the flip side of the coin, I sort of like this west coast swing to open the season. As early as the season is starting this schedule is favorable as far as actually being able to get the games in without weather concerns lessening the threat of losing an off day later in the season or having to schedule a double header which is never ideal. Also, it just seems nice to get this trip out of the way early.

Less pressure; more bonding.
Related to the "getting games in" comment - - - the rhythm for baseball players is play every day; actually it's play every night. Early part of most seasons has the day-after day off for opening day home and away and lots of day games. While this schedule is daunting in a sense, its also as close to regular-season "normal" as any first 10 games I can remember.

 

[Tony Pena's Gas Cloud]

What an enjoyable game. Loved the energy and the defense, and the speed and the youth. Only negative was Joely. Hopefully he can get things together and contribute.

Meh, he made a bad pitch to a pinch hitter. He got the next three hitters with two strikeouts.

 

[BostonJack42]

I'm a Rafaela fanboy....the batting eye seemed improved in ST. And it looked real in game one (yes, I know...very small, irrelevant sample size). Pencil him into CF for the then 12 years. I like how Tyler O'Neal plays the game. I like that Trevor Story seems to calm everyone down. I think that Casa will be average defensively and a MF'er at the plate.

Agree with all of this. Loved how fast Rafaela was. Fun to watch.

And I couldn't agree more about O'Neal - kinda player that annoys me if he's on another team.

 

[loneredseat]

Meh, he made a bad pitch to a pinch hitter. He got the next three hitters with two strikeouts.

He just makes me nervous, every time he goes out. But hopefully he proves me wrong, and no sense dwelling on the negatives. Great game, exciting team... Lets go sox!!!

 

[nattysez]

What was going on with Duran in the top of the 9th? The TV broadcast was having kittens about the fact that he was halfway down the line and dancing, which is a distraction for a lefty hitter. It seemed like a few players discussed it after the inning. Especially annoying was that Duran did it during one pitch and no one in the dugout apparently yelled at him to knock it off, so he did it again the next pitch and Casas Kd.

 

[Al Zarilla]

What was going on with Duran in the top of the 9th? The TV broadcast was having kittens about the fact that he was halfway down the line and dancing, which is a distraction for a lefty hitter. It seemed like a few players discussed it after the inning. Especially annoying was that Duran did it during one pitch and no one in the dugout apparently yelled at him to knock it off, so he did it again the next pitch and Casas Kd.

Maybe easier said than done, but can't the hitter, even a LHH, concentrate 110% on the pitcher?

 

[Heating up in the bullpen]

I think this is underselling the improved IF defense. Story made some difficult plays, not just routine ones. Valdez had a great stop as well. Casas was certainly less pinned to the bag than he was for half the prior year.

Re: the bolded -- Jumped out at me in the bottom of the first when he was in position in the middle of the infield to take the cut from O'Neill on the single with JRod on second. He was MIA on that play a lot last year. Bodes well for knowing where to go and where to throw.

 

[Rice4HOF]

Maybe easier said than done, but can't the hitter, even a LHH, concentrate 110% on the pitcher?

NO! You need to be aware if there's a possibility of the runner attempting a steal of home. If you're fully concentrating on the pitcher, you might swing the bat and send Duran's head rolling into centerfield.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Maybe easier said than done, but can't the hitter, even a LHH, concentrate 110% on the pitcher?

It's more than just concentration in that spot. If Duran is really coming, then Casas can't swing at all for fear of taking Jarren's head off. He also can't really let a strike pass without swinging because there are two strikes and he'd be out and Duran doesn't score anyway. It was a bad baseball play by Duran. The whole reason he got that far without the pitcher stepping off is because there were two strikes and pitcher didn't care. He made his pitch (a rather nasty one even without the distraction) to Casas and got out of the inning. Duran didn't matter to him.

 

[Rovin Romine]

It's more than just concentration in that spot. If Duran is really coming, then Casas can't swing at all for fear of taking Jarren's head off. He also can't really let a strike pass without swinging because there are two strikes and he'd be out and Duran doesn't score anyway. It was a bad baseball play by Duran. The whole reason he got that far without the pitcher stepping off is because there were two strikes and pitcher didn't care. He made his pitch (a rather nasty one even without the distraction) to Casas and got out of the inning. Duran didn't matter to him.

Conversely, with two outs and two strikes, Casas might trust his teammate/3B coach to know that he can't steal home in that circumstance.

And I think the reason he got that far was that the 3B was playing in the SS position.

And as a PS, I think Duran did matter to the pitcher, but mostly in the sense it makes it much riskier to put a ball in the dirt on a 2-2 count. He pretty much has to throw a strike or throw the ball up/wide.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Conversely, with two outs and two strikes, Casas might trust his teammate/3B coach to know that he can't steal home in that circumstance.

And I think the reason he got that far was that the 3B was playing in the SS position.

You trust him to not steal when he's 30 feet off the bag and dancing around trying to distract the pitcher. When he's 50+ feet down the line and still moving as the pitcher goes into the wind-up, it's a different story.

Here's a screen grab of where Duran was when the pitcher started the wind-up, and his position is a result of his last jab step before he retreated a bit as the pitch was delivered. Most of that action presumably Casas didn't see because he was watching the pitch. I would guess the last thing he noted was Duran steadily approaching.

 

[Rovin Romine]

You trust him to not steal when he's 30 feet off the bag and dancing around trying to distract the pitcher. When he's 50+ feet down the line and still moving as the pitcher goes into the wind-up, it's a different story.

Here's a screen grab of where Duran was when the pitcher started the wind-up, and his position is a result of his last jab step before he retreated a bit as the pitch was delivered. Most of that action presumably Casas didn't see because he was watching the pitch. I would guess the last thing he noted was Duran steadily approaching.

View attachment 80149

I'm not saying Casas wasn't distracted (he may have been - we may get some reporting on it today.) I'm also not saying that there might not have been poor communication/understanding at various points.

I do much of this is moot - mostly because he didn't actually try to steal with 2 strikes.

I also think (per my PS above) that as long as Casas is certain Duran's not going to steal in that sort of situation and he's free to focus on the pitch, this is probably exactly what you want to see in this type of situation. (And it will probably come up again during the year.) Look at that screen shot. The pitcher can't risk throwing a ball in the dirt here. The catcher can't bobble it. It's just limiting the opposing teams' options and putting pressure on them.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I'm not saying Casas wasn't distracted (he may have been - we may get some reporting on it today.) I'm also not saying that there might not have been poor communication/understanding at various points.

I do much of this is moot - mostly because he didn't actually try to steal with 2 strikes.

I also think (per my PS above) that as long as Casas is certain Duran's not going to steal in that sort of situation and he's free to focus on the pitch, this is probably exactly what you want to see in this type of situation. (And it will probably come up again during the year.) Look at that screen shot. The pitcher can't risk throwing a ball in the dirt here. The catcher can't bobble it. It's just limiting the opposing teams' options and putting pressure on them.

The pitcher can't risk a passed ball/wild pitch situation regardless of where Duran is on the baseline. Unless you're talking about the ball can't even get away from the catcher by a foot or two, which probably isn't on the pitcher's mind unless the pitch call is for something down (which it probably wasn't).

I just think what Duran did was above and beyond necessary for the situation. There's a reason we generally don't see base runners do that, even those with his speed. His run wasn't crucial with a two run lead in the ninth. Helpful as insurance, sure, but not crucial to winning the game. He can score on a base hit or a passed ball just as easily if he's only 30 feet off the bag instead of 2/3 of the way down the line. And I'd rather he take no risks of causing Casas a distraction, especially when his intended target, the pitcher, is unlikely be distracted by him anyway.

Moot anyway as far as the result of the game, but hopefully a lesson for him going forward.

 

[Rovin Romine]

The pitcher can't risk a passed ball/wild pitch situation regardless of where Duran is on the baseline. Unless you're talking about the ball can't even get away from the catcher by a foot or two, which probably isn't on the pitcher's mind unless the pitch call is for something down (which it probably wasn't).

I just think what Duran did was above and beyond necessary for the situation. There's a reason we generally don't see base runners do that, even those with his speed. His run wasn't crucial with a two run lead in the ninth. Helpful as insurance, sure, but not crucial to winning the game. He can score on a base hit or a passed ball just as easily if he's only 30 feet off the bag instead of 2/3 of the way down the line. And I'd rather he take no risks of causing Casas a distraction, especially when his intended target, the pitcher, is unlikely be distracted by him anyway.

Moot anyway as far as the result of the game, but hopefully a lesson for him going forward.

Very fair points, I think. I'm curious to see if there's any discussion of this in today's reporting.

 

[Cassvt2023]

Very fair points, I think. I'm curious to see if there's any discussion of this in today's reporting.

NESN has an hour to fill on their pre game show. With only last night's game (and tonights) to talk about, I'd be surprised if they didn't talk about it.

 

[Rice4HOF]

I'm not saying Casas wasn't distracted (he may have been - we may get some reporting on it today.) I'm also not saying that there might not have been poor communication/understanding at various points.

I do much of this is moot - mostly because he didn't actually try to steal with 2 strikes.

I also think (per my PS above) that as long as Casas is certain Duran's not going to steal in that sort of situation and he's free to focus on the pitch, this is probably exactly what you want to see in this type of situation. (And it will probably come up again during the year.) Look at that screen shot. The pitcher can't risk throwing a ball in the dirt here. The catcher can't bobble it. It's just limiting the opposing teams' options and putting pressure on them.

This is a good point. But it has to be a pre-planned play. "Hey, if the 3B isn't holding me on I'm going to come like 89 feet down the line, but don't worry bro, I'm not going to actually steal". If they have this play in their arsenal, then it's on Casas to know about it, and then he is fully able to concentrate on the pitcher.

 

[Cassvt2023]

It'll be interesting to see if O'Neill is in the lineup again tonight against a 2nd straight tough RHP in Kirby. Kinda tough to bench him after last nights performance.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Feels much more like something is actually being built, yeah?

If the team were closer to high level competing, sure, maybe the old solid guys are a good fit, but I don't think any of us could have handled another season not just of middling performance but a roster somewhat clogged by they-are-what-they-are older players who the GM could never figure out how to trade.

We are slowly but surely turning over the roster to no longer have so many freaking placeholder guys all over the diamond and pitching staff.

This. Times 1,000,000.

So much more fun watching a game like last night with Duran in LF and Rafaela in CF as opposed to having signed Jorge Soler for 1/$20m to see him or Yoshida pretending to be an outfielder with Duran miscast in CF and Rafaela not being challenged by AAA journeymen.

Tripled when Grissom is back and at 2b.

Now if Henry can use some of that money to clone Bello twice, we’ll really have something.