They'd be D-U-M-B to make that determination based on the Betts trade. And reading the tea leaves sounds helpful to a certain degree, but it would also be crazy to not simply ASK them.
So the way I think of it is this: If you get the job, given the potential resources available, the intense fan base and history of the club, in a vacuum being the GM of a highly successful Boston Red Sox franchise has got to be about as good as it gets. Massively high profile, etc.
So saying no *without even sitting down to talk with them* seems like a potentially foolish, foolish decision.
But I don't know what any of these people are thinking. I'll stop talking about this now because I've beaten this horse to death. Just color me very confused about this.
I agree with you that most GM candidates would not shy away from taking a job with a team just because it is in the AL East or because the team needs pitching. GM's have willingly taken over much, much worse teams talent-wise than the current Red Sox. I mean, how do the Pirates or Royals get new GMs to come over?
But I think the real issue is that an incoming GM/Baseball Ops person would want is enough autonomy to make the difficult decisions to improve the team, and enough runway time-wise to do it. Bloom was given a directive to rebuild the team via the draft, a process that invariably takes 5-7 years before it pays dividends at the major league level. He was canned after 4, one of which was the absurd CoVid year which really should never have counted when assessing someone in Bloom's role.
It's a tiny industry, and people do talk all the time. Dombrowski, a highly accomplished and well respected baseball executive, was given a lot of autonomy until he was let go a season after winning a World Series. Bloom was also highly regarded and got fired after following the ownership's wishes to cut payroll. Theo's departure was acrimonious. So the organizational challenges are very real, and I can understand why a higher profile candidate may think that they would be set up to fail by the way the team is currently run.
In general, candidates get only so many bites at the apple before they are considered "damaged goods" if they do not win. I can see an aspiring candidate would think twice before using one of those bites on the current Red Sox organization.
Obviously, there is not much to be read into any one specific individual's decision to turn down an interview or offer. But the large number of candidates refusing to take an interview is a huge red flag that has almost nothing to do with the fact that the team's best starting pitcher is Bryan Bello or that Betts is in LA.