So, 19 at-bats and Travis Shaw is a shoe-in?
- Thread starter MyDaughterLovesTomGordon
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I'm going from memory here, but didn't they give up on Beltre because they wanted to go hard after A-Gon, which in turn necessitated moving Youkilis back to third from first? Of course, that also meant giving up Anthony Rizzo.
Man, speaking of bad off-seasons...
Man, speaking of bad off-seasons...
Eh I have no issues with the Sox not keeping him. It also netted us Jackie Bradley Jr. and Blake Swihart,
The Sandoval and Castillo benchings seem like they might be an overreaction to spring training to me. The plan going in to spring training was for them to start the season in the lineup. The only thing that has changed since then was the team played some exhibition games. And spring training stats are worse than worthless.
Now I am a big believer in spring training evaluation, which is 100% different from stats. But the Red Sox have not been good at that in recent years, and a lot of the same evaluators are still here who, for example, in spring training 2014 thought Grady Sizemore would be a viable centerfielder. Two weeks into the season, they realized that that was totally wrong. Hopefully their evaluation has vastly improved over 2 years ago. We'll see.
I am a big fan of Shaw and Holt, and was against the Sandoval signing from day 1, and thought we should be trying to find a taker for him since last year because of his inability to play defense. So I should be excited for these moves. But until a couple weeks ago, the plan was for Holt to be a utility player who played all over the diamond, and for Shaw to be a part-time corner IF. So it's a big switch for them, and they will be in roles that they haven't really been asked to do before.
Until very recently, the plan never was for Shaw to be a regular third baseman in the majors. If that was even a thought back in September, they could have played him there more than 2 times, compared to the 29 games he played at first base.
So it just seems like these are rushed decisions based on a few weeks of exhibition games. Doesn't mean they are the wrong decisions, just that it smells like it might be an overreaction. Hopefully not. Both these moves seems like they are more about the guys getting benched than the guys getting the playing time. So I hope they are looking around for a good fielding RH 3B and a LF who can hit RHP.
Internally, it might make sense to send Castillo to AAA and bring up Deven Marrero, who could go in for defense at third late in games, while Shaw moves over to first. Marrero could be an excellent defensive third baseman, and he would give us more infield depth, since Holt is apparently going to be in the outfield a lot. But Marrero can't hit, and it might be better for him to stay in AAA and work on that, if they think he could still develop.
Pawtucket's projected OF of Brentz, LaMarre and Justin Maxwell are all RH hitters, as is former hitter Allen Craig. Brennan Boesch is LH but he has a reverse split and doesn't hit righties well, and of course he broke his wrist and will be out for a while. So there is basically no internal help for LF against righties. Brock Holt has zero power and not a lot of experience as a LF, but he had better be ready to handle this role because there really isn't any other internal option.
I love Shaw, but he is at times a really streaky hitter. If he starts out cold, then he will get hit with a lot of criticism and everyone will be up in arms. At some point, he will slump and will look lost at the plate, so don't overreact when it happens, because at some point he'll catch fire for a nice hot streak too. And while he has good hands, his range at third seems pretty limited.
So while I think both guys have their strengths and can help the team, I'm not sure either guy is going to be put in the best role for their success. But the decision has been made that these roles will be best for the team, so hopefully they will be good enough to get the job done.
Now I am a big believer in spring training evaluation, which is 100% different from stats. But the Red Sox have not been good at that in recent years, and a lot of the same evaluators are still here who, for example, in spring training 2014 thought Grady Sizemore would be a viable centerfielder. Two weeks into the season, they realized that that was totally wrong. Hopefully their evaluation has vastly improved over 2 years ago. We'll see.
I am a big fan of Shaw and Holt, and was against the Sandoval signing from day 1, and thought we should be trying to find a taker for him since last year because of his inability to play defense. So I should be excited for these moves. But until a couple weeks ago, the plan was for Holt to be a utility player who played all over the diamond, and for Shaw to be a part-time corner IF. So it's a big switch for them, and they will be in roles that they haven't really been asked to do before.
Until very recently, the plan never was for Shaw to be a regular third baseman in the majors. If that was even a thought back in September, they could have played him there more than 2 times, compared to the 29 games he played at first base.
So it just seems like these are rushed decisions based on a few weeks of exhibition games. Doesn't mean they are the wrong decisions, just that it smells like it might be an overreaction. Hopefully not. Both these moves seems like they are more about the guys getting benched than the guys getting the playing time. So I hope they are looking around for a good fielding RH 3B and a LF who can hit RHP.
Internally, it might make sense to send Castillo to AAA and bring up Deven Marrero, who could go in for defense at third late in games, while Shaw moves over to first. Marrero could be an excellent defensive third baseman, and he would give us more infield depth, since Holt is apparently going to be in the outfield a lot. But Marrero can't hit, and it might be better for him to stay in AAA and work on that, if they think he could still develop.
Pawtucket's projected OF of Brentz, LaMarre and Justin Maxwell are all RH hitters, as is former hitter Allen Craig. Brennan Boesch is LH but he has a reverse split and doesn't hit righties well, and of course he broke his wrist and will be out for a while. So there is basically no internal help for LF against righties. Brock Holt has zero power and not a lot of experience as a LF, but he had better be ready to handle this role because there really isn't any other internal option.
I love Shaw, but he is at times a really streaky hitter. If he starts out cold, then he will get hit with a lot of criticism and everyone will be up in arms. At some point, he will slump and will look lost at the plate, so don't overreact when it happens, because at some point he'll catch fire for a nice hot streak too. And while he has good hands, his range at third seems pretty limited.
So while I think both guys have their strengths and can help the team, I'm not sure either guy is going to be put in the best role for their success. But the decision has been made that these roles will be best for the team, so hopefully they will be good enough to get the job done.
Yes, having made the decision to give the job to Shaw, I hope they give him at least to June 1 to settle, which means no more than a 1-2 starts a week for Sandoval. Crazy sorta roster with your UI starting in LF and one of your 4 bench players who can only play 3B.
Perhaps Shaw over Sandoval should be seen as a potential over-correction by Farrell to his excessive loyalty last year to vets like Victorino, Masterson, Breslow, Gomes and Napoli.
In any event, I am very interested to see about Shaw's defense, which we are told won him the job. Surely they have to get this part of the assessment correct. It does seem odd that we have been searching for a 3b for years and settle on the guy who we decided was a 1b in the minors so Michael Almanzar could stay at the hot corner.
Perhaps Shaw over Sandoval should be seen as a potential over-correction by Farrell to his excessive loyalty last year to vets like Victorino, Masterson, Breslow, Gomes and Napoli.
In any event, I am very interested to see about Shaw's defense, which we are told won him the job. Surely they have to get this part of the assessment correct. It does seem odd that we have been searching for a 3b for years and settle on the guy who we decided was a 1b in the minors so Michael Almanzar could stay at the hot corner.
Well, that's the real question about Shaw - was he moved off 3B to 1B in the minors because he absolutely couldn't hack it at 3B or because it was a better roster fit to play him at 1B?
I have to think that if Shaw really couldn't handle 3B, Holt would have been named as the starting 3B, and we'd see a different OF configuration.
I have to think that if Shaw really couldn't handle 3B, Holt would have been named as the starting 3B, and we'd see a different OF configuration.
What happened? This is an an organization that in the recent past has talked up the concept of "deep depth" and inspiration drawn from the example of the Patriots down in Foxboro. Beyond the catching position, it's hard to see much deep depth anywhere -- OF, IF, pitching staff -- that can step in as a working patch at the MLB level.
Great that they made the most of those picks* but that doesn't mean it was a wise decision to pass on a player who ended up being one of the best free agent signings in the history of free agency. Beltre's worst season during that 5 year/96 million deal was last year - and he was still a 4.6 win player**. Presumably the front office didn't think Beltre would age well, and in the end he aged like a first ballot Hall of Famer (74.6 WAR and still going strong). Instead - in the same offseason- they decided that giving an extra 50 million dollars to a younger OF would be a better use of their money going forward. So as much as the signing of Carl Crawford was - just by itself- a horrendous miscalculation, the fact that they passed on a future Hall of Famer (who was eager to return to Boston) so that they could make that signing makes it even more horrendous. GMs need to be judged not just on the players they sign in free agency but also on the players they pass on. From that perspective, Theo's decision to pass on Beltre was nearly as big of a miscalculation as his decision to commit to Crawford.
*If the Sox had chosen to invest their money in Beltre over Crawford they most likely would have still ended up with Blake Swihart (taking him with the 24th pick -which they lost to the Rays for Crawford- rather than the 26th pick -which they acquired from the Rangers for Beltre).
**Interesting stat: In 2012 Beltre had a 6.5 WAR, a number that outpaces the 6.2 total WAR Crawford has since the beginning of his contract.
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Shaw was moved off 3B after getting drafted in 2011 because the Sox had an organizational logjam in Yamaico Navarro (AAA), Will Middlebrooks (AA), and Garin Cecchini (A).
Anthony Rizzo had been dealt for Gonzalez, and Lars Anderson was the only other "top" prospect at 1B.
Yeah...
It wasn't just the other minor league third basemen, the Red Sox also had concerns over Shaw's size:
"They saw Shaw, with his big frame, as having a better chance to thrive defensively if he moved across the diamond to first base."
But minor league infield coordinator Andy Fox believes he can play third:
“He’s quick in short spaces, and that’s what you need to do at the corners,” said Fox, a longtime big-league infielder who joined the Red Sox organization in 2011. “Sometimes we maybe look at the physicalness instead of the actual quickness of somebody. Mike Lowell, for me, was not the fastest guy in the world, but he moved quick in short spaces. Travis is in that category for me where, if you watch his feet, he’s able to get to balls he needs to get to.”
"They saw Shaw, with his big frame, as having a better chance to thrive defensively if he moved across the diamond to first base."
But minor league infield coordinator Andy Fox believes he can play third:
“He’s quick in short spaces, and that’s what you need to do at the corners,” said Fox, a longtime big-league infielder who joined the Red Sox organization in 2011. “Sometimes we maybe look at the physicalness instead of the actual quickness of somebody. Mike Lowell, for me, was not the fastest guy in the world, but he moved quick in short spaces. Travis is in that category for me where, if you watch his feet, he’s able to get to balls he needs to get to.”
I also see Shaws over Sandoval as Farrell playing the hot hands early to combat any critics calling for his head if the team doesn't start off quickly. If Shaw doesn't play well, Sandoval comes in and everyone hopes for the best. If Shaw continues his spring training trend, Farrell looks like he made the right move. I personally would like Lovullo back in the captain's seat.
It's fascinating to consider how remarkably effective a conservative approach to the corners in the 2010/11 offseason would have been. By simply resigning their own star free agent (Beltre) and not trading for AGon, they would have ended up with one of the best corner (Youkilis and Beltre) IF tandems in all of baseball in 2011. The following season, when Youkilis began to decline, Rizzo would have emerged (.349 w/OBA in 2012) as his replacement. By 2014 and 2015 the Sox would have had a combined 21.8 WAR from their corner IF starters ( an amazing 11.4 WAR in 2014 and a similarly impressive 10.4 in 2015) a number that would have probably been the best in baseball. Instead during those two years -after following a far more complicated and much more expensive formula - the Sox got a combined 1.9 WAR (2.7 in 2014 and -.8 in 2015) from their corner IF positions, a number that was by far the worst in baseball.
There has been a desperation to the FO decision making since the failed pursuit of Teixiera in 09. Only in the wake of the relief offered by the Punto trade was there some sanity to roster building. But when it became apparent that the departure of FAs and the slow development of rookies coupled with the crash of the 2013 FA group signaled a one and done contender, the need to immediately reload gripped the organization. Theo spoke of a 5 year plan to build a contender but now it's 1-2 years. And that attitude is showing in the dugout.
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There is a difference between desperation and dunceperation. They made terrible evaluations of Lackey, Crawford, and Sandoval, and increasingly likely they did with Castillo as well. Everything else would have been fine. If not for the implosion of Lackey contributing to the need and desire to dump Crawford, they could have eaten Beckett's deal and kept Gonzales, who has been as advertised for LA.