Silver Dollar - The Official NBA Betting Thread!

Red Averages

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Apr 20, 2003
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As most of you know my wagers are placed through local PayPerHead accounts, offshore or kiosks at retail casinos. Last week I began using my Hard Rock Bet account and am blown away, kinda infuriated/embarrassed, that when you log in any player can scroll across for “suggested” wagers that clearly and obviously are not in the best interest of the player. I’ve never heard of a book marketing wagers influencing action in this manner to unsuspecting and (mostly) inexperienced consumers. Wtf am I looking at here?
They are picked by the marketing team per by FD contact. I find it really, really, unquestionably unethical that these companies are able to spend literally billions of dollars PER YEAR courting retail customers and are then able to kick out the ones that win. Granted the government shares in the profits, but eventually it’ll be regulated to hell. As it should be.
 

Marceline

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They are picked by the marketing team per by FD contact. I find it really, really, unquestionably unethical that these companies are able to spend literally billions of dollars PER YEAR courting retail customers and are then able to pick out the ones that win. Granted the government shares in the profits, but eventually it’ll be regulated to hell. As it should be.
Hope you’re right… I’m still bitter about being limited at DK since they seem to often have lines I can’t find elsewhere.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Be thankful you have even that. The situation in DC is absolutely fucked.
Insane that they operate unsupervised kiosks in 2024. I have one friend who isn’t even allowed to use the kiosks at Foxwoods or face a permanent ban and my runner at Mohegan Sun must wager at the window to get approved for every wager and not at rhe kiosks. It’s so tight out there now that this is unfathomable to have unsupervised kiosks in a random restaurant. Mind blown.
 

Red Averages

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Apr 20, 2003
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End of the Lakers/Knicks game was wild. 15 points in the last 30 seconds. Knicks were down 9 with 25 seconds left. Brunson goes for a layup, they foul, Brunson goes for a layup, foul again, another Brunson layup, then a useless foul with 2 seconds left while down 6. Stat padding!
 

HomeRunBaker

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Aside from the two day games on Sunday we have the Bucks in a classic fade spot on a B2B in Utah. They fought from 25 down today and road their stars hard today in getting their road win on this 5-game trip w Phoenix ahead of them to wrap it up. Meanwhile, a Jazz team with two days off and coming off 3 losses awaits them.

Grabbed Utah -1 overnight to protect against load management bumping this number up but even if everyone for the Bucks goes it should close closer to -3. I also like the Bucks TT Under which should be 123.5 when it opens in the morning.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Barring anything weird looks like a full split in the day game Unders. Utah now up to -4 with Middleton and Lopez OUT and Lillard questionable. Hope you guys got the -1 last night…you really have to go early on these B2B’s coming off a tough game before injury reports come out.
 

Red Averages

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Apr 20, 2003
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Barring anything weird looks like a full split in the day game Unders. Utah now up to -4 with Middleton and Lopez OUT and Lillard questionable. Hope you guys got the -1 last night…you really have to go early on these B2B’s coming off a tough game before injury reports come out.
I actually jammed it as soon as it posted. Again, where these insights are really helpful in trying to identify spots ahead of time. Let’s hope it pans out.
 

Red Averages

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Apr 20, 2003
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Barring anything weird looks like a full split in the day game Unders. Utah now up to -4 with Middleton and Lopez OUT and Lillard questionable. Hope you guys got the -1 last night…you really have to go early on these B2B’s coming off a tough game before injury reports come out.
Great call on Utah.

For tonight the Clippers stick out as vulnerable. They are on the last game of a horrific road trip that started almost two weeks ago. They are 5-1 on the road trip so far, winning last night @ Miami by 8. Tonight they play @ ATL. In my head I'd fade the Clippers on a back-back on the last game of a road trip where they have already locked in a successsful trip.

Atlanta is on the last game of a 6 game homestand, where they are 4-1 so far. They beat the Warriors on Saturday.

Atlanta is +3 (-105) / +130 at home. My bias is to take them, but do you factor in the Hawks coming off a few wins, last game at home?
 

HomeRunBaker

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Good one tomorrow. Phoenix was -2 at some places I saw but I didn’t have access until -3.5 but my number is still much higher (-6.5) so I’d jump in asap. I bumped up my Suns rating several weeks ago and I’ve been down on Milwaukee much of the season. Now they adjust to a new coaching staff in midstream while on the road. Recipe for disaster.

Undecided how to attack tonight’s Raptors/Pelicans game with Toronto losing a 2OT game last night with four starters playing 40+ minutes.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Would never have guessed a 32 point Hornets quarter was coming on a back-back with the Lakers typical pace.
If I got my 56.5 I cash….instead the Bridges bucket w :01 sends it over the real number. Glad I didn’t take the bad number.
 

Bleedred

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Being new to this, I downloaded the ESPN betting app, which is pretty good. I didn't realize that you cannot place a bet if you're in a state that doesn't allow it. I'm currently in FL working for two weeks and the app doesn't allow me to bet b/c it's not a jurisdiction that allows them to take bets.
 

Jim Ed Rice in HOF

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Jul 21, 2005
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Being new to this, I downloaded the ESPN betting app, which is pretty good. I didn't realize that you cannot place a bet if you're in a state that doesn't allow it. I'm currently in FL working for two weeks and the app doesn't allow me to bet b/c it's not a jurisdiction that allows them to take bets.
Yup. When MA went live I was taking a 20 minute drive down to Salisbury from NH to take advantage of all the sign up bonuses/free bets. My wife just shook her head when I'd say I had to go take a ride to the border.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Being new to this, I downloaded the ESPN betting app, which is pretty good. I didn't realize that you cannot place a bet if you're in a state that doesn't allow it. I'm currently in FL working for two weeks and the app doesn't allow me to bet b/c it's not a jurisdiction that allows them to take bets.
You can download Hard Rock Bet. It allows wagers from Florida, Arizona Iowa, Indiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, and Virginia.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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In addition to my Phoenix smash tonight I made a normal sized play on Memphis +14.5 in an exhale game for the Knicks who have been rolling with energy, effort and focus. Good spot for all 3 of these to be lacking and not baked into the number.
 

Leon Trotsky

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In addition to my Phoenix smash tonight I made a normal sized play on Memphis +14.5 in an exhale game for the Knicks who have been rolling with energy, effort and focus. Good spot for all 3 of these to be lacking and not baked into the number.
It seems the Phoenix line moved down since yesterday. Even better I guess?

And thanks for the Jazz call - I fell asleep sweating that one but the 4th quarter was brilliant.

I used a weird promo bet I have gotten a few times lately on DK. Bet on a first made three, and win or lose, get a bonus bet based on number of 3's made in the game. The first bet is a lottery ticket, but using it on C's/Lakers paid off great for the bonus (3.5 times the first bet), then I applied that to the Jazz win parlayed with the Bucks TT under. Big win!
 

HomeRunBaker

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It seems the Phoenix line moved down since yesterday. Even better I guess?

And thanks for the Jazz call - I fell asleep sweating that one but the 4th quarter was brilliant.

I used a weird promo bet I have gotten a few times lately on DK. Bet on a first made three, and win or lose, get a bonus bet based on number of 3's made in the game. The first bet is a lottery ticket, but using it on C's/Lakers paid off great for the bonus (3.5 times the first bet), then I applied that to the Jazz win parlayed with the Bucks TT under. Big win!
Very nice!!! Love to hear it. I don’t know what times you saw these numbers but they bounced all around yesterday. I got in at -3 early it went to 2 and not there are 4 and 4.5’s out there. Barring a late injury to one of the Suns Big 3 it wouldn’t seem that we see anything below 4 here.
 

Red Averages

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Apr 20, 2003
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No BroPez or Lillard tonight. Hope Brock is OK, that’s 3 missed games in a row for personal reasons.
 

HomeRunBaker

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In addition to my Phoenix smash tonight I made a normal sized play on Memphis +14.5 in an exhale game for the Knicks who have been rolling with energy, effort and focus. Good spot for all 3 of these to be lacking and not baked into the number.
One down with the Grizz covering. Time to get the brooms out now boys!! Real sluggish start by both teams early.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Hey if any of you guys have access to in-game player props the Bucks are now without Lillard AND Middleton....Giannis is pretty much their only offensive creator so his usage will be sky high. Just an idea and don't know how his numbers are adjusted for this.

Edit: Whoever this female ref is there can be a case made that she has a wager on Milwaukee tonight. Durant has gotten literally HAMMERED at least two times right in front of her, no whistle, and now the no-call on the obvious foul against Booker at midcourt.
 

Dr. Gonzo

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Pulled the trigger in game Suns -1.5. End of the first half seemed to be getting it slowly together offensively.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Took some U225.5 earlier in 1H once Middleton was ruled out. Was going to add more with 2H anything better than 118.5 and I'm seeing 123.5!! Hammer went out on this 2H Under.

Pace is slow, Phoenix doesn't shoot 3's and the Bucks offense is all halfcourt and predictable.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Got in at 123.5 as well. Thanks for the heads up.
I took more live at 215.5 and that's my final click. If Milwaukee covers and this goes over 225.5 you will find me in all your PM's looking for $50 Fan Duel free bets. (only half joking lol)
 

HomeRunBaker

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NBA end games can be brutal and Beasley tried to stick the damn for in our collective backs there. Big shout out to Arlington native Pat Connaughton for not pulling up for the 3 there on the final possession. Monster freakin night!!!
 

Dr. Gonzo

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NBA end games can be brutal and Beasley tried to stick the damn for in our collective backs there. Big shout out to Arlington native Pat Connaughton for not pulling up for the 3 there on the final possession. Monster freakin night!!!
Crushed it. Thanks again.
 

Red Averages

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Apr 20, 2003
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NBA end games can be brutal and Beasley tried to stick the damn for in our collective backs there. Big shout out to Arlington native Pat Connaughton for not pulling up for the 3 there on the final possession. Monster freakin night!!!
Awesome. Well deserved
 

HomeRunBaker

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No plays yet today.

Considering Toronto to bounce back off their 40-pt loss to the Pelicans on the 2nd night following a 2OT loss. Not really enthused to lay 7 on the road with that team however. Similar feelings on Clippers -7 as you know I dislike laying over 2 possessions aside from obvious blowout spots.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Got in at +280. See how the final two minutes go.
I taught you guys too well. Very nice!!!

My only wager in The Associstion was in that game a small play on Quickley Over 16.5 points. Angle was that he’d have plenty of open floor opportunities. I didn’t share bc I suck at player props and since I had no plays tonight figured I’d make a small token play. I feel like that old man in the empty casino scene of Vegas Vacation, “I won. I won the money!.” Hopefully my ending isn’t at swift as his was.

View: https://youtu.be/XmLek7Q8-xk?si=WAA0NsXUdsAKRHP-
 

Over Guapo Grande

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Nov 29, 2005
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The other play I made was late 2nd Q in the Celts game when it was like 68-63, I grabbed the Under of 260. I figured "clamps" would appear in the second half.
 

Red Averages

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Apr 20, 2003
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The other play I made was late 2nd Q in the Celts game when it was like 68-63, I grabbed the Under of 260. I figured "clamps" would appear in the second half.
This is my go-to, but I wait until about 4 min left in the 3rd if it’s within 8 points. The pace can still be really high to start the 2nd half.

The ideal is Celtics up by a few. They’ll change the pace, play intense D, and the algo has to price in a close game + current pace vs what we expect. Works well with Cavs, Magic, Nuggets, Knicks, obviously the Lakers which HRB has been on for years, really any good defensive team that has experience adjusting the pace. Have to wait for the pace to change and then ideally they can pull away to avoid the foul fest. Of course we all see the IST Pacers game where some fluke tail events can happen but it’s been very profitable.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Liking Phoenix if you can get -6 otherwise keep an eye on in-game like you guys have been doing. Aside from that not much happening on a high variance day with all players having their own personal itineraries immediately following the game. Whose head is where tonight? Maybe some good lives spots for a team that is packing it in I dunno. I’ll keep an eye on things.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Been meaning to post this to those who have access to these props. If anyone can find a Triple Double price for Ben Simmons let me know who is offering them. It’s not a matter of when but a matter of time before he runs off a few of these as his minutes ramp up as he’s playing connected and we can maybe catch some way off numbers on it.

EDIT: I played Simmons Double-Double at +600 and Over 23.5 PRA at +193 but if a triple double is out there it should be in the +2500 or higher range which is stupid value.
 
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