Silver Dollar - The Official NBA Betting Thread!

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,828
Because I'm very late to this thread and the silver dollar generally, could you give a sentence of reasoning for each of the picks? No worries if it's a pain in your ass or you don't have time, but I'm not yet familiar with the betting philosophy.
Not pain in the ass I love this shit. If I didn't I wouldn't be responding from a Publix parking lot with my Oat Milk curdling in the back (I lied, I have air cranked).

First off, I need the numbers to align both with mine and what I feel the market price should be. Ex: Upthread I expected Dallas to be -10 or -11 tonight. They opened overnight at -10 at some places, opened this morning market wide at -11 and now a tick higher at -11.5 last I checked. So it's in-line w my market expectation as well as the very top of my value cap as my number is -14.

Dallas checks huge box of mine. Good team coming off embarrassing blowout. Portland began their road trip last game with a 20-pt loss. Teams on long road trip generally perform best in that first game being motivated (and fresh) to get trip off on right foot.The first game is also a focal point of the coaching staff. So we've got angle on both sides. What makes this a normal sized play rather than larger is the big number we are laying. We could still be right and lose which is what prevents this from being bigger play. (Didn't you say one sentence? Yeah, wrong guy lol)

Kings/Magic Under - See my Kings Under write up from last night that we cashed. Same holds true tonight. Magic is a willing defensive partner and one of the, if not THE, best defensive team in the entire league.

Bucks - This one is a pure "gut" play as the Pacers are currently sweeping the matchup this season winning all 3 games but all were right and really the Bucks should have won 2 of the 3. I think there will be extra motivation to go into Indiana on a business trip after handing them the game in the 4Q the other night.

Brooklyn is one of those auto-play spots similar to Dallas. Coming off a blowout loss facing a team coming off a 30-pt win.

Atlanta was resting at home while OKC was winning their Super Bowl last night. Again, auto-spot and one of the many schedule losses we see on a superior teams schedule. (Even the best schedule loss spots aren't "locks" they just perform at a high level)
 

Red Averages

owes you $50
SoSH Member
Apr 20, 2003
9,251
Hawks tried to blow that, but another (fairly easy) cover. Nice call, HRB.

Meanwhile the Bucks are quietly 3-3 in their last 6 games with what was supposed to be a tough schedule. They are @SA tomorrow and @Hou Saturday to end this road trip.
 
Last edited:

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,828
3-pt barrage is only reason we aren't way ahead here. Pace is perfect. Added U235.5 at plus money.
 

Mloaf71

Well-Known Member
Gold Supporter
SoSH Member
Jul 13, 2005
644
Double OT. Oof
OT and hot second half 3 point shooting never helps.

Light schedule today. Only thoughts I have are Bucks TTU on a back to back and the 3rd game in 4 days with Giannis and Lilliard both playing 35+. mins in each of the Pacers games.
 

Red Averages

owes you $50
SoSH Member
Apr 20, 2003
9,251
OT and hot second half 3 point shooting never helps.

Light schedule today. Only thoughts I have are Bucks TTU on a back to back and the 3rd game in 4 days with Giannis and Lilliard both playing 35+. mins in each of the Pacers games.
I’m nervous because: Spurs are trash and Bucks have lost two straight. They should come out strong.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,828
Double OT. Oof
Orlando never stopped nailing threes, and contested threes, all night. Frustrating but that's why money management is so crucial. Same thing in Bulls game with Houston hitting 50% threes yet still just two possessions from covering. Bucks were simply a bad pick....Pacers apparently own their soul with Tyrese running circles around Lillard. The way the night went I'm surprised Atlanta didn't lose in OT.

I've got nothing at all in either game tonight.
 

RG33

Certain Class of Poster
SoSH Member
Nov 28, 2005
7,299
CA
I’m nervous because: Spurs are trash and Bucks have lost two straight. They should come out strong.
Yeah, I was gonna say I love Bucks in 1H -5. They should come out pretty pissed. I won’t be surprised if they are up 15 at halftime and fade and tire in 2nd half and let Spurs make a game of it, but I think they come out angry in 1H against a discombobulated Spurs team.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,828
CBB halftime box score hunting.

Played Northern Kentucky 2H -3 it starts at 8:12pm

Edit: Sorry it was 8:02, game was pick and Youngstown shot lights out from 3 in 1H (10-15) to take 9-pt lead. Played for regression on other side of floor on the road.
 

Red Averages

owes you $50
SoSH Member
Apr 20, 2003
9,251
Loving the in game updates.

I saw it under 5 min into the 2nd half when it was -4.5 (-125), which I didn’t want to chase, so as an emotional hedge I took them +200 ml for the game on 0.5u with the goal to still get -3.5 2nd half if they slipped up… (basically gave up a 3 point run I could add, if not the ML would be in good shape).

long story short ended up with 1.25 units on NK +150 (blended) and then got YS for 0.35u at +420 with 2 min left.

So roughly perfectly hedged with a chance to win if they can hold on.

even if I missed it, it’s interesting to hear the thought process/screening process.
 

Dr. Gonzo

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 8, 2010
5,462
Agreed. Thanks for the heads up.

Got -6.5 at +100 and couldn’t resist. Worked perfectly. Thanks again.
 

Red Averages

owes you $50
SoSH Member
Apr 20, 2003
9,251
Looking for an opportunity to lean into Spurs. They are competing like hell, crowd is into it, and starting to hit some shots after shooting 25% from 3 up until this point.

Brock and Portis have 3 fouls halfway through the 3rd, which is another risk.

Played 0.25u on Spurs +300, ideally add 1u if we see +11.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,828
Wow glad you guys got that. The last site I clicked it said start time 8:12 then I came here, next thing I see is there is 18:40 left in 2H.

That is my standard 2H CBB hunt....two fairly evenly matched teams, it doesn't work with huge preflop spreads, when one team is shooting >60% from 3 on good volume (3 for 5 doesn't qualify). This game checked all the boxes....pregame spread was -1, high volume of 3's and being on the road w little warm up time with the new shooting background (like 7 min for 2H compared to over an hour sometimes on 1H side) being the icing on cake.

Saturday should provide many opportunities for this angle to play.
 

Dr. Gonzo

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 8, 2010
5,462
Looking for an opportunity to lean into Spurs. They are competing like hell, crowd is into it, and starting to hit some shots after shooting 25% from 3 up until this point.

Brock and Portis have 3 fouls halfway through the 3rd, which is another risk.

Played 0.25u on Spurs +300, ideally add 1u if we see +11.
Got anxious and when it got to +8.5 I pulled the trigger.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,828
One good one for tonight.

* Orlando +9.5

Magic have lost 3 tight games in a row on this trip, are competing hard, and will likely fight to avoid an 0-4 trip. Probably the last thing Denver needs after last nights emotional win is a desperate team waiting for them. Another example of a number not adjusted nearly enough for the variables surrounding this game. My fair number is 6 and I'd assume this gets bet down to 8 which doesn't factor any late scratches for the Nuggets.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,828
That seems like a smash opportunity. Are you sizing as such?
If normal is a 1u and smash is a 3-4u I'd place this one at a 2-2.25 only due to the Magic being shorthanded tonight. It should work in their favor as it's even more of a reason for Denver to exhale but still a real good spot.
 

Mloaf71

Well-Known Member
Gold Supporter
SoSH Member
Jul 13, 2005
644
I was just looking at this game myself and was going to ask how you evaluate playing the line vs looking at Denver TTU.
 

RG33

Certain Class of Poster
SoSH Member
Nov 28, 2005
7,299
CA
One good one for tonight.

* Orlando +9.5

Magic have lost 3 tight games in a row on this trip, are competing hard, and will likely fight to avoid an 0-4 trip. Probably the last thing Denver needs after last nights emotional win is a desperate team waiting for them. Another example of a number not adjusted nearly enough for the variables surrounding this game. My fair number is 6 and I'd assume this gets bet down to 8 which doesn't factor any late scratches for the Nuggets.
Franz Wagner / Harris / Ingles / Isaac are all officially OUT and Wendell Carter is a GTD just fyi. That is a lot of horsepower for Orlando. I like the overall thought, but this level of injury makes me a bit nervous.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,828
I was just looking at this game myself and was going to ask how you evaluate playing the line vs looking at Denver TTU.
I'll rarely play a TT for more than a normal sized play. In part bc of limits on these type wagers and in part bc it is getting too fancy when you really don't have to. I'll primarily add a TT when I'm capped on the side and want more exposure so generally only on a smash bet, max bet or whatever you want to call them.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,828
Franz Wagner / Harris / Ingles / Isaac are all officially OUT and Wendell Carter is a GTD just fyi. That is a lot of horsepower for Orlando. I like the overall thought, but this level of injury makes me a bit nervous.
Yeah and this is why it's not a full smash but that is also why we are getting the number we are. I'd much prefer 9.5 without them and the Nuggets not taking them as seriously as getting 7.5 with Denver a little more focused playing against a full squad.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
47,454
I do like letdown game opportunities. Hard to bring the same level of energy after winning a game like they did last night AND having to travel home.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,828
One good one for tonight.

* Orlando +9.5

Magic have lost 3 tight games in a row on this trip, are competing hard, and will likely fight to avoid an 0-4 trip. Probably the last thing Denver needs after last nights emotional win is a desperate team waiting for them. Another example of a number not adjusted nearly enough for the variables surrounding this game. My fair number is 6 and I'd assume this gets bet down to 8 which doesn't factor any late scratches for the Nuggets.
View: https://youtu.be/b8qZ4qzDICg?si=VdoL8forV71XELks
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
47,454
Thoughts on tonight? Celtics giving 6.5 to a hot team at home that didn’t have to travel feels a little juicy. Celtics should be pretty rested and probably have some revenge on their mind so could be some conflicting forces here.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,828
Thoughts on tonight? Celtics giving 6.5 to a hot team at home that didn’t have to travel feels a little juicy. Celtics should be pretty rested and probably have some revenge on their mind so could be some conflicting forces here.
Meh nothing. Celtics probably win but wouldn't surprise me at all if they don't. Number is getting a little bit up there though. I'd lean Pacers if it gets over 7. Not playing however.
 

RG33

Certain Class of Poster
SoSH Member
Nov 28, 2005
7,299
CA
Thoughts on tonight? Celtics giving 6.5 to a hot team at home that didn’t have to travel feels a little juicy. Celtics should be pretty rested and probably have some revenge on their mind so could be some conflicting forces here.
I am flying to Indy right now and will be attending, which makes me want to play it, but I don’t love it. Feels like Celts could smack them down, also feels like a big “show them” game for Indy. Both teams are hot and playing well — I am not gonna touch it.

I do like Nebraska +5 and TCU +9 in college today.
 

Mloaf71

Well-Known Member
Gold Supporter
SoSH Member
Jul 13, 2005
644
Anyone considering the halftime under for Celtics Pacers at U234.5? First half played way below that pace at 107 and would have been lower had Tatum not been supernova.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,828
Anyone considering the halftime under for Celtics Pacers at U234.5? First half played way below that pace at 107 and would have been lower had Tatum not been supernova.
You guys are getting too good. Came here to say I played 2H U127.5
 

Mloaf71

Well-Known Member
Gold Supporter
SoSH Member
Jul 13, 2005
644
You guys are getting too good. Came here to say I played 2H U127.5
Nothing better than winning money with this group.

Got in, in the second Quarter @ U229.5 and again at the halftime number.

The slow to adjust love lines are fantastic.
 

Red Averages

owes you $50
SoSH Member
Apr 20, 2003
9,251
Nothing better than winning money with this group.

Got in, in the second Quarter @ U229.5 and again at the halftime number.

The slow to adjust love lines are fantastic.
Most of the way through the 4th the live betting was implying about 6 pts per minute pace, despite the Celtics up 12 (think the in game was 226-230 when that was happening). Great ride.
 

Mloaf71

Well-Known Member
Gold Supporter
SoSH Member
Jul 13, 2005
644
Most of the way through the 4th the live betting was implying about 6 pts per minute pace, despite the Celtics up 12 (think the in game was 226-230 when that was happening). Great ride.
On to two early tips tomorrow!
 

Red Averages

owes you $50
SoSH Member
Apr 20, 2003
9,251
@HomeRunBaker thoughts on taking some under Bucks 53.5 regular season wins +105 given this brutal upcoming schedule? Would do it tomorrow/Thursday after they take care of the Spurs tonight.

Spurs tonight, then host Orlando, then 8 of 9 games on the road before hosting Jazz, Celtics, warriors, kings, before another 3 game road trip.
Spurs W by 13
Orlando W by 4
@ Knicks W by 19
@ Knicks L by 7
@ Nets W by 22
@ Cle W by 8
IND L by 9
@ Ind L by 12
@ Spurs W 4
@ Hou L by 4

Next up: Jazz, Bos, GS, Kings (back-back) all at home before @ Cle, @ Det, @ Det
 
Last edited:

RG33

Certain Class of Poster
SoSH Member
Nov 28, 2005
7,299
CA
I smashed the Celts in 2nd half. Then went to Prime 47 and sat between TJ Mcconnell, Buddy Hield, and Jalen Duren and their respective families. Buddy Hield grabbed me, gave me the finger (nicely) and said “we’ll see you Monday night baby”.

I’m doubling down.