Silver Dollar - The Official 2022-23 NBA Betting Thread!

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
25,553
Well that answers the question of when the number adjusts. Great opportunity to get in like 4-5 min into the 2Q. Suns lead went from 18 to 19 yet the live number went from 16.5 to 12.5 during the timeout as Kawhi was checking in. Super spot for middles too.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
25,553
Monday:

Celtics have put up 126, 111, and 126 while going Over their Team Total in all 3 games. It seems as though the market hasn’t adjusted for TL being out which allows us to get out into transition as opponents are penetrating more which is giving us numbers off misses. One less big on the floor is increasing our Pace.

* Celtics TT Over 114.5 (@ Chicago)
 

RG33

Certain Class of Poster
SoSH Member
Nov 28, 2005
6,562
CA
To further illustrate how foolish this game we play is……..T-wolves up 18 with the ball and 1:30 to go -9.5

I’m in a poker hand so I check back to confirm the W……they won by 10 and thankfully made a 2 on the final possession. Almost another heartbreaker today
I, fortunately, had the opposite experience with my one NBA play today (also had Jags and Miami) with the Kings being utterly dominated all night, and then after seeing them down 20+ and giving up 89 points in the first half, they somehow covered the +10 spread for me in the 4th.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
25,553
I, fortunately, had the opposite experience with my one NBA play today (also had Jags and Miami) with the Kings being utterly dominated all night, and then after seeing them down 20+ and giving up 89 points in the first half, they somehow covered the +10 spread for me in the 4th.
Go back and look how the Raptors covered their closing numbers of +3.5 and the Kings +3 on Sat night. Many times I’m playing an overnight to get an extra .5 to 1.5 pts or waiting to get a better number live even if it’s mid-1Q. If you aren’t beating the closing number in pro and college basketball you have no chance.
 

Jim Ed Rice in HOF

Red-headed Skrub child
SoSH Member
Jul 21, 2005
6,524
Seacoast NH
Right after I lost Lions +7 and Jaguars on final possession drives. Today was fun.

On a lighter note, who else has the Spurs and Jazz in the WC Finals? When did the year 2000 arrive?

Seriously though, I may be sticking with in-game stuff for the time being. Usually I trust my preseason numbers for the first 10-12 games before adjusting but this year is more bizarre than I’ve seen in awhile. Like I have no clue how to adjust teams like the Spurs, Jazz, etc and don’t want to be betting into these numbers without a clue until I see some type of market overreaction to one side or the other.
I follow along in these threads but don't end up posting much since I don't have a ton of knowledge to impart. I do however hitch myself to the coattails of those that do. The Lakers nosedive in the last couple minutes sucked but your advice upthread about LAL and Q4 unders led me to jump on the U52.5 to lessen the impact.
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
15,879
Santa Monica
Careful on clsssifying teams as “tanking” especially this early in the year. The players on the floor are absolutely NOT tanking……all that stuff goes on with roster decisions and later on in the year instructions to the coach who to play and who to shut down. As far as the game I played the Over as this should be a wide open game the way the Pacers like with the Spurs not likely to argue.
This is a really good post, that probably explains why Utah is 3-0

Tanking is an ownership/GM decision. The players (and head coaches) could really care less about future draft picks. Obviously, veteran players, like Utah's group, want to win. Danny by all accounts is extremely competitive. Wouldn't be shocked to see him switch gears and stop the yard sale. Getting into play-in games and developing a winning culture with roster turnover (when you have future pick swaps) is also advantageous.

Guys like Conley, Sexton, Beasley, Markkanen, Clarkson, Kelly O have probably read the headlines this Summer and want to prove a point. I imagine Danny had a few fist pumps after getting that early Minnesota road scalp.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
9,526
Toscana via Kyiv
This is a really good post, that probably explains why Utah is 3-0

Tanking is an ownership/GM decision. The players (and head coaches) could really care less about future draft picks. Obviously, veteran players, like Utah's group, want to win. Danny by all accounts is extremely competitive. Wouldn't be shocked to see him switch gears and stop the yard sale. Getting into play-in games and developing a winning culture with roster turnover (when you have future pick swaps) is also advantageous.

Guys like Conley, Sexton, Beasley, Markkanen, Clarkson, Kelly O have probably read the headlines this Summer and want to prove a point. I imagine Danny had a few fist pumps after getting that early Minnesota road scalp.
I doubt Danny will chase play-in games when Victor and Scoot are available with just a bit of pingpong luck.
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
15,879
Santa Monica
I doubt Danny will chase play-in games when Victor and Scoot are available with just a bit of pingpong luck.
Being a Top 3 bottom-feeder is going to be ultra-competitive, under the microscope and getting headlines all season long. It's actually going to be somewhat interesting to see at what length teams will go to lose. Presti is the present-day king at it. Silver was talking about relegation/Premiership style to stop the tanking, which sounds impossible to execute.

Danny and Ryan Smith are smart, I wouldn't blame them if they chased ping-pong balls. Play-in purgatory blows IMO.
Danny/Brad always played to win when some called for Celtic tanking

BUT I do think HRB had a good point. Be careful betting against so-called TANKERS, like Utah, early in the season when they are laden with veterans.
 
Last edited:

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
9,526
Toscana via Kyiv
Being a Top 3 bottom-feeder is going to be ultra-competitive, under the microscope and getting headlines all season long. It's actually going to be somewhat interesting to see at what length teams will go to lose. Presti is the present-day king at it. Silver was talking about relegation/Premiership style to stop the taking, which sounds impossible to execute.

Danny and Ryan Smith are smart, I wouldn't blame them if they chased ping-pong balls. Play-in purgatory blows IMO.
Danny/Brad always played to win when some called for Celtic tanking

BUT I do think HRB had a good point. Be careful betting against so-called TANKERS, like Utah, early in the season when they are laden with veterans.
Relegation AND a lottery would be amazing. "Get as low as you can, but try not to burn the franchise to the ground!"
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
25,553
Would you play at 115.5 or hold off?
I expect this to close 116.5/117.5 so I’d grab it quick. The combo of Bos O & Pace not adjusted enough and the Bulls defense thus far make this one seem like a market mover rest of the day. I only got 114.5 last night at low limits on two overnights. Rest at 115.5 this morning.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
25,553
Home court not playing up over the first week of the season at right around .500 SU. Road teams are covering 65% ATS.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
25,553
Biggest moves since 6am:

Celtics -4 to -6
Celtics/Bulls Total 222.5 to 226.5
Nuggets -3.5 to -5
Nets/Grizz Total 228 to 232.5
Spurs/Wolves Total 232 to 235
Jazz +1 to -2
Raptors/Heat Total 217.5 to 215

Sharp money? Head fakes? Injury news? Without digging into each game individually it’s hard to tell. I agree with the moves on Celtics, Celtics Over, Nuggets and Nets Over.
 

RG33

Certain Class of Poster
SoSH Member
Nov 28, 2005
6,562
CA
Go back and look how the Raptors covered their closing numbers of +3.5 and the Kings +3 on Sat night. Many times I’m playing an overnight to get an extra .5 to 1.5 pts or waiting to get a better number live even if it’s mid-1Q. If you aren’t beating the closing number in pro and college basketball you have no chance.
Yeah, I almost always take the ML along with the points when betting NBA for that reason. Or, as dumb as it is, I’ll buy 2 points — the lines are so accurate and it is so infuriating seeing the random last-minute-garbage-time layup screw things up.

What I won’t talk about is being drunk at a wedding on Saturday and taking the 76ers ML (and James Madison ML at home) on “greedy bets” and giving away 2/3 of the pretty large nut I had built last week. Stupid.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
25,553
Yeah, I almost always take the ML along with the points when betting NBA for that reason. Or, as dumb as it is, I’ll buy 2 points — the lines are so accurate and it is so infuriating seeing the random last-minute-garbage-time layup screw things up.

What I won’t talk about is being drunk at a wedding on Saturday and taking the 76ers ML (and James Madison ML at home) on “greedy bets” and giving away 2/3 of the pretty large nut I had built last week. Stupid.
In basketball it is almost always (maybe always) -EV to buy points. I’ll buy on/off key NFL numbers if I’m getting a break with the juice but hard to ever lay more than -115 on any point spread wager.
 

RG33

Certain Class of Poster
SoSH Member
Nov 28, 2005
6,562
CA
Spurs absolutely destroying the Wolves. Pop is coaching his ass off so far.
I had Knicks ML, Rockets ML, Raptors ML, and Minny ML parlay tonight that paid 8-1. The big fave screws me, again.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
25,553
Looking at a big play on Warriors/Heat game tomorrow night so hoping tonight’s game in Portland works out well. I did play Miami regular tonight as I like teams on the first game of an extended road trip as they seem to come out with more urgency to get off on the right foot. Couple that with the Blazers playing well over their head it’s a good return to earth spot for them.

About tomorrow though. It’s a classic NBA setup/scheduling loss. Warriors coming off a bad loss, Klay (a shooter) invisible and frustrated, while the Heat travel in the early hours after a game tonight.

Saw one book (5Dimes) open at -7 with total at 223.5 and both should increase especially this total which I have in the high 220’s. I’ll be playing the Over on Klay scoring and 3-pt props for max I can as this again is a classic shooters bounce back spot.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
25,553
Spurs absolutely destroying the Wolves. Pop is coaching his ass off so far.
Played Wolves 1H -5.5 and FT for 50% less at -9 while looking at some Wolves player prop Overs/Spurs Unders shortly. Quick revenge that is fresh in players minds is good in the NBA.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
43,218
Played Wolves 1H -5.5 and FT for 50% less at -9 while looking at some Wolves player prop Overs/Spurs Unders shortly. Quick revenge that is fresh in players minds is good in the NBA.
DK offering promo for KD/Giannis to both score for +100. Not quite free money but I should do this, right? Seems like better than a coin flip that they both do unless there’s an injury or blowout.
 

Jim Ed Rice in HOF

Red-headed Skrub child
SoSH Member
Jul 21, 2005
6,524
Seacoast NH
DK offering promo for KD/Giannis to both score for +100. Not quite free money but I should do this, right? Seems like better than a coin flip that they both do unless there’s an injury or blowout.
Just a note on this for anyone rushing over to DK - it's KD/Giannis to both score 25+, not just score. Still a decent bet but the first option would indeed be free money.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
43,218
Just a note on this for anyone rushing over to DK - it's KD/Giannis to both score 25+, not just score. Still a decent bet but the first option would indeed be free money.
Yeah, sorry if I wasn’t clear. Should have written KD and Giannis. Still seems like a good deal. Original odds were like -210.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
25,553
Yeah, sorry if I wasn’t clear. Should have written KD and Giannis. Still seems like a good deal. Original odds were like -210.
Giannis O/U is 32.5 and Durant 30.5 (iirc). That doesn’t seem like -210 for both to reach 25 but I never calculate prop total parlays so maybe it is…..it doesn’t seem it though. Good at +100 for sure.

I’ll be live-watching Lakers/Nuggets for a couple reasons but that Total seems high at 229.5 however I’ll be waiting until late 1Q to move on it just before they go to the bench. Per usual, the 4Q Lakers Under will be ready for click if game is tight.
 
Last edited:

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
25,553
Playing Lakers 2H ML (+165) and 2H U117 for any late night degens looking for action. Nuggets going through motions, game being played at Lakers pace with LeBron/AD desperate for a win down the stretch…..can’t pass on that value here. Don’t expect pace to pick up either so keeping it low on the Total as well.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
25,553
I did play Miami regular tonight as I like teams on the first game of an extended road trip as they seem to come out with more urgency to get off on the right foot. Couple that with the Blazers playing well over their head it’s a good return to earth spot for them.
Played Wolves 1H -5.5 and FT for 50% less at -9 while looking at some Wolves player prop Overs/Spurs Unders shortly. Quick revenge that is fresh in players minds is good in the NBA.
I’ll be live-watching Lakers/Nuggets for a couple reasons but that Total seems high at 229.5 however I’ll be waiting until late 1Q to move on it just before they go to the bench. Per usual, the 4Q Lakers Under will be ready for click if game is tight.
Finally a big freakin NBA night after a frustrating first week. The live totals in Lakers game never made any sense at any point in that game. The epitome of overleveraged by the middle of the 4Q but every click I felt was 6-8 points off…..and it was.

Played overnight Mavs -2, Kings +3.5, Warriors -7.5, Over 224.5 and hopefully when limits rise in morning these numbers don’t get blown out.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
25,553
Warrior Total now 228.5 and 229 in some places. I was able to add some 226.5 at one slow moving out. It used to be numbers began moving at 9:30-10am and back in the day as late as 11am. Now it’s like which group can get the most clicks in before 8:01am. Fun. At this point I’d wait to see if you can get some buy back to 226.5

College is even worse as the overnights move so these numbers are never seen on your locals account.

Also, played Under 225.5 in Mavs/Nets and waiting on Clippers injury news to play the quick revenge spot.

Edit: Friend had a free $100 5-team parlay credited to him (his words, no idea how or why since he rarely bets sports) and asked if I wanted to buy it for $50. Uh hello I’m Gary have we met? I cut him in for a 10% piece…..we have:

Mavs ML
Over 227 Warriors/Heat
Kings +3
Under 55 Utah/Wash St
Over 46 Ravens/Bucs

Edit: Warriors total back to 226.5 I wouldn’t pay more than that (aside from my throwaway parlay) and now waiting for the Klay Overs to get posted.

Edit2: Got Klay O15.5 Pts (-120) and O2.5 3-pointers made (-152). I don’t have a O3.5 option at even or plus money but would much prefer than if you can find it.
 
Last edited:

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
25,553
B2B crusher nights. Finding my groove now and excited about being more involved in the prop market this year. Klay didn’t necessarily catch fire (1-7 in 1H) but he was clearly more active and involved following his clunker which was enough to catch both of his props.

The only overnight that jumped off the page was Under 225.5 in Blazers/Rockets. Portland without Dame for a little while brings their offense down a couple notches as they literally may not score whenever Simons is out of the game. They play a slow pace as it is and I expect them to look to even further dictate tempo.

Waiting for the Simons props to post in the morning. He’s going to be an Auto-Over in Points and 3-Pt during this time without Dame unless they post ridiculous numbers…..which really they should. I don’t see much stopping Simons from hitting for 40+ in these games without Dame. He’s as explosive a scorer as there is in the league and now he’ll have free reign. Look out.

Finally, daytime NBA basketball returns this weekend. I think there is a noon game on the East Coast and a couple Western mid-afternoon games. If you’ve been following here you’ll know that these games tend to be very sluggish, sloppy, and “UNDER”whelming. ;)
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
43,218
B2B crusher nights. Finding my groove now and excited about being more involved in the prop market this year. Klay didn’t necessarily catch fire (1-7 in 1H) but he was clearly more active and involved following his clunker which was enough to catch both of his props.

The only overnight that jumped off the page was Under 225.5 in Blazers/Rockets. Portland without Dame for a little while brings their offense down a couple notches as they literally may not score whenever Simons is out of the game. They play a slow pace as it is and I expect them to look to even further dictate tempo.

Waiting for the Simons props to post in the morning. He’s going to be an Auto-Over in Points and 3-Pt during this time without Dame unless they post ridiculous numbers…..which really they should. I don’t see much stopping Simons from hitting for 40+ in these games without Dame. He’s as explosive a scorer as there is in the league and now he’ll have free reign. Look out.

Finally, daytime NBA basketball returns this weekend. I think there is a noon game on the East Coast and a couple Western mid-afternoon games. If you’ve been following here you’ll know that these games tend to be very sluggish, sloppy, and “UNDER”whelming. ;)
O/U on DK is 23.5 for Simons. I'm in.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
25,553
Lakers down by 3 last night entering the 4th. First three quarter point totals were 53, 51, 49. 4Q line was 58.5 so I figured that was easy money. This is why I don’t gamble for large amounts of money.
We are ready to test the waters again tonight to close to end the week.

Lakers up 55-51 at home against the Nuggets. Fast paced 1H with awful shooting. Lakers should remain bad while the Nuggets numbers figure to stay down a notch on the road. With 2H and especially 4Q pace slowing I’m building positions to the Under starting with U216.5 here at the half.

Edit: Market immediately taking this to 217 & 217.5 which happened a couple games ago as well. The market was wrong that night and looking for it to be wrong again tonight. I’ll take the extra point.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
25,553
Haven’t added anything yet. Both teams caught fire. May look around the 6 min mark
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
25,553
Finally, daytime NBA basketball returns this weekend. I think there is a noon game on the East Coast and a couple Western mid-afternoon games. If you’ve been following here you’ll know that these games tend to be very sluggish, sloppy, and “UNDER”whelming. ;)
One 12pm West Coast start today. Pelicans @ Clipper. Number opened 224.5, closed 226.5……
and finished at 203. The market did begin reacting to these last year really for the first time in a significant fashion. As you can see, still a ton of opportunity with these.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
25,553
One overnight play locked up.

* Sacramento Pk @Charlotte

First game of long road trip should bring a focused Kings team after finally getting a win over the Heat last game after several close misses. Certainly not a 1-5 type team. Charlotte, OTOH, is heading in the opposite direction with a banged up backcourt at best or a depleted one at worse with Ball OUT, Rozier missing last game w ankle and Caleb Martin with a quad/knee. Love this spot here.

Lost discipline late last night after a LONG weekend (NBA, UFC, Bellator, CFB, NFL, EPL, tennis, etc) and got away from my tried and true game plan of Laker 4Q and Laker final 6 min Unders while trying to build from the start of the 2H. Lost one small position there but most importantly had a valuable wake-up call as the 231 Final stayed below the 233.5 we could have had with 8 min to go and the 237.5 at the 6 min mark. Must keep head in the game until the final whistle rather than flipping the ball to the ref at the 2-yr line following the INT return instead of carrying it to the end zone.
 
Last edited:

Oil Can Dan

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2003
7,417
0-3 to 4-3
Another thank you from the abyss. I followed your advice last night and scored a Lakers under of 137.5 live betting. You input is much appreciated!

edit - what's funny is that I thought I got 133.5 and was totally sweating the last nine seconds of the game unnecessarily...
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
25,553
Another thank you from the abyss. I followed your advice last night and scored a Lakers under of 137.5 live betting. You input is much appreciated!

edit - what's funny is that I thought I got 133.5 and was totally sweating the last nine seconds of the game unnecessarily...
That’s what I’m talking about!! This makes me happy. I never wanted to nor intended to make this a “These are my picks and why” thread. While I do plenty of this the best part for me is when some of the ideas I post are implemented successfully without me involved. The Laker mid-4Q Unders, early NBA start Unders, other in-game regression alerts, etc
 

Jim Ed Rice in HOF

Red-headed Skrub child
SoSH Member
Jul 21, 2005
6,524
Seacoast NH
That’s what I’m talking about!! This makes me happy. I never wanted to nor intended to make this a “These are my picks and why” thread. While I do plenty of this the best part for me is when some of the ideas I post are implemented successfully without me involved. The Laker mid-4Q Unders, early NBA start Unders, other in-game regression alerts, etc
I wasn't awake to follow the LAL yesterday but I did score on the Pels/Clippers, getting in when it was 224.5. The early start under theory is burned into my brain because of these threads.
 

bellowthecat

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2010
488
Massachusetts
The Sac line was -3.5 this afternoon when I saw it so I passed. Got Sac at +3.5 when they were down 8 or so early in the second. I'm usually too late to get on the early numbers HRB posts so I've been looking for spots to play them early in games like this one where an early run swings the numbers. Also been following your plays on teams on first game of a road trip for a while now. I appreciate you putting yourself out there for the rest of us.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
25,553
NBA is imo THE best sport to play in-game as you can often get a better number live while having the ability of crossing the two most important key numbers of 7 and 2. This is something I don’t utilize as a discipline (but def should) on all of my plays as I pay attention to other factors that lead to my “trigger.” I do however know of a prominent handicapper who uses an in-play analytic target where his “sharp” side, regardless whether he plays it pregame or not, triggers an in-game play. I’d have to dig but I believe these triggers he uses provide a 60%+ win rate.

Today I played…….

* Kings +6.5
* Under 222 Jazz/Mavs
* Pelicans -3
* Hawks +2
* Grizzlies -4
* Haven’t played yet but watch Simons Over Pts prop.

Coming right back with Sac in a great scheduling spot as this is a pure fade of the Heat here who returned from CA trip to beat the Warriors in a “hard” game last night (I tag certain games as “hard” which plays toward emotional value I place on future game or games). Classic letdown spot against a team missing its best player and a huge emotional adv here. May be another good live spot should they Heat get out early as I wouldn’t expect them to sustain effort for 48 min.

I feel Utah is a team that is easier to slow down than it is for them to speed up the opponent especially on the road. I expect Dallas to dictate tempo and stay under this number.

Pels have Zion back and the Lakers coming off their “Championship celebration seems like a good fade to me. I mean it only took them 3 games to achieve their “desperation win.”

Hawks are this leagues ultimate volatile team. I feel they are best to fade coming off blowout wins being overvalued and playing on when coming off blowout losses when undervalued and playing with a greater sense of urgency. Being the final game of road trip only accentuates this spot.

Hard for me to pull trigger on an overvalued Grizz team that I’m very low on. I’ve done very well fading them so far especially on the road but the only thing I am lower on are the Blazers without Lillard for an extended (more than 1-2 games) time. Josh Hart is also expected to be out. The Grizz pace should create a ton of scoring opportunities for Simons prop again. Anything Under 28 for him is value imo.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
25,553
Simons points are 24.5 (-121) at the book I use. How many units would you recommend?
How many would they allow?

Only half-kidding. I don’t know what your BR management looks like so 2U could be conservative or it could be aggressive. At the end of the day it’s an NBA regular season game so I wouldn’t be getting my mortgage guy on the phone but 2U sounds about right.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
25,553
NBA is imo THE best sport to play in-game as you can often get a better number live while having the ability of crossing the two most important key numbers of 7 and 2. This is something I don’t utilize as a discipline (but def should) on all of my plays as I pay attention to other factors that lead to my “trigger.” I do however know of a prominent handicapper who uses an in-play analytic target where his “sharp” side, regardless whether he plays it pregame or not, triggers an in-game play. I’d have to dig but I believe these triggers he uses provide a 60%+ win rate.

Today I played…….

* Kings +6.5
* Under 222 Jazz/Mavs
* Pelicans -3
* Hawks +2
* Grizzlies -4
* Haven’t played yet but watch Simons Over Pts prop.

Coming right back with Sac in a great scheduling spot as this is a pure fade of the Heat here who returned from CA trip to beat the Warriors in a “hard” game last night (I tag certain games as “hard” which plays toward emotional value I place on future game or games). Classic letdown spot against a team missing its best player and a huge emotional adv here. May be another good live spot should they Heat get out early as I wouldn’t expect them to sustain effort for 48 min.

I feel Utah is a team that is easier to slow down than it is for them to speed up the opponent especially on the road. I expect Dallas to dictate tempo and stay under this number.

Pels have Zion back and the Lakers coming off their “Championship celebration seems like a good fade to me. I mean it only took them 3 games to achieve their “desperation win.”

Hawks are this leagues ultimate volatile team. I feel they are best to fade coming off blowout wins being overvalued and playing on when coming off blowout losses when undervalued and playing with a greater sense of urgency. Being the final game of road trip only accentuates this spot.

Hard for me to pull trigger on an overvalued Grizz team that I’m very low on. I’ve done very well fading them so far especially on the road but the only thing I am lower on are the Blazers without Lillard for an extended (more than 1-2 games) time. Josh Hart is also expected to be out. The Grizz pace should create a ton of scoring opportunities for Simons prop again. Anything Under 28 for him is value imo.
“Get me on the court and I’m trouble. Last week messed around and got a triple double.”

View: https://youtu.be/h4UqMyldS7Q