Rudy Pemberton said:
I dunno, maybe I'm being overly negative. But what does the 2016 Red Sox team look like? Where are they getting production from? Who is fronting the staff? Aren't they relying a ton on young players? Granted, many of those players will be productive- but what's the core of this team? I don't see a lot of elite level talent that seems necessary to building a contender.
The offense in the first half was mired by slumps from Bradley and Bogaerts. Both of them appear to be coming out of that and both were expected to produce with the bat, each in their own way. There's every reason to think that Bradley can put up an OBP in the .350 range and that Bogaerts is going to be an impact bat. Replacing Gomes won't be hard. There's a pretty good chance they have that already in Hassan or Brentz. That may be a spot they can upgrade through free agency, even. Victorino has been out all year, so replacing his 2014 production is just a matter of putting a warm body out there. This is another place where they can upgrade in free agency, even without an impact player being out there. Ortiz is probably gone or a shell of himself by 2016, so the hope (as mentioned earlier in this paragraph) is that Bogaerts is that impact bat by then. Napoli could be extended (he'll be going into his age 34 season) if he's still hitting, or they may have Travis Shaw or Sam Travis ready to step in.
As you point out, the tougher area is going to be filling out the rotation. Replacing Lester is going to be hard. Chances are none of the prospects in the system now will give us what he's given us. That said, filling out the rotation is not some daunting unbearable issue. If Lester leaves it probably means they aren't paying Scherzer, either. If they're going to pony up for a pitcher at that price, it'll be Lester. So looking at the next tier down we have Shields, Santana, Masterson, Wei-Yin Chen and Floyd. Picking up one of those (let's say they spend on one of the better two) and extending Lackey through 2017 gives them a rotation of Santana/Shields, Lackey, Workman and a combination of RDLR, Ranaudo, Webster, Barnes, Owens, and Wright for 2015. That's not the best rotation in the majors, but I'd argue it's playoff caliber. Even if you pull two of those prospects out in a Stanton deal, that's a solid collection of pitchers.
And if you do add Stanton, you suddenly have a solid core of Stanton, Bogaerts, Pedroia and Bradley for the long haul (maybe adding Swihart soon) and a lineup something like Bradley, Pedroia, Ortiz, Stanton, Napoli, Victorino, Bogaerts, Middlebrooks and Vazquez in 2015. That looks like a competitive lineup to me. And that's before considering either of the two Cuban outfielders in play right now.