The biggest problem for the Bills long-term is that Allen will cost $23m more against the cap next year than he does this year, & it's only going up from there, which means this might be their last best chance to put together a complete roster.
The biggest problem for the Bills long-term is that Allen will cost $23m more against the cap next year than he does this year, & it's only going up from there, which means this might be their last best chance to put together a complete roster.
plus it's a QB in his 20s, unless his arm falls off Cam Newton style due to injury you'll be perfectly happy to restructure/extend every year like Brady did for nearly a decade.
plus it's a QB in his 20s, unless his arm falls off Cam Newton style due to injury you'll be perfectly happy to restructure/extend every year like Brady did for nearly a decade.
The final four last year of QBs was Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, and Josh Allen. The final four this year was Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, Matt Stafford, and Jimmy G.
You need a great QB to go far in the playoffs. Jimmy G is the only anomaly in those names and, of course, he lost in the NFC Championship because he couldn't get it done and Stafford got it done multiple times to beat TB, the Niners, and the Bengals.
If Josh Allen is playing like he has played, it doesn't matter what he's getting paid. He gives the Bills a much better chance to win than they would otherwise have. Look at what he did against KC in the playoffs this year. It was otherworldly stuff.
I never said it was a bad contract or they would stop competing in the future. They'll be fine.
He's not going to be $23m minus whatever the cap goes up by better next year than he will be this year, though, so this is the optimal year for the Bills to have as good of a roster as possible & might be there best chance to win a SB, even if they have equity every year going forward, too.
It's the same with the Chiefs & Mahomes - as he starts actually costing real $ against the cap, they can no longer afford what they used to be able to so they need to move on from players like Tyreke.
They would sign him to that contract over & over again 100 times out of 100, but there is an opportunity cost that makes it harder to be a juggernaut when your QB is properly accounted for against the cap.
Same with Seahawks & RW - ever since he started costing real $, they've no longer been real contenders.
Part of what let the Patriots dominate the way they did is that Brady never really cost them full market value against the cap until I believe the very last year.
Having so much surplus value at QB let's a team dominate & have a mini-run of excellence until they are no longer underpaid. Then the team will be above average almost always & can still make a run, but it creates holes & more difficulties roster building once they are paid.
This was something I looked into a lot for dumbazz reasons a few years ago on another message board (I vehemently argued that a team could never win a Super Bowl paying Kirk Cousins full market value).
Here's a chart I just made:
Year
SB Winner
QB
Salary
Cap
% of Cap
2022
$208,200,000
2021
Rams
Matthew Stafford
$20,000,000
$182,500,000
10.96%
2020
Buccaneers
Tom Brady
$25,000,000
$198,200,000
12.61%
2019
Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes
$4,479,808
$188,200,000
2.38%
2018
Patriots
Tom Brady
$22,000,000
$177,200,000
12.42%
2017
Eagles
Nick Foles
$1,600,000
$167,000,000
0.96%
2016
Patriots
Tom Brady
$13,764,706
$155,270,000
8.87%
2015
Broncos
Peyton Manning
$17,500,000
$143,280,000
12.21%
2014
Patriots
Tom Brady
$14,800,000
$133,000,000
11.13%
2013
Seahawks
Russell Wilson
$681,085
$123,600,000
0.55%
2012
Ravens
Joe Flacco
$8,000,000
$120,600,000
6.63%
2011
Giants
Eli Manning
$14,100,000
$120,375,000
11.71%
2010
Packers
Aaron Rodgers
$6,500,000
UNCAPPED
#VALUE!
2009
Saints
Drew Brees
$10,660,400
$123,000,000
8.67%
2008
Steelers
Ben Roethlisberger
$7,970,000
$116,000,000
6.87%
2007
Giants
Eli Manning
$10,046,666
$109,000,000
9.22%
2006
Colts
Peyton Manning
$10,566,668
$102,000,000
10.36%
2005
Steelers
Ben Roethlisberger
$4,220,250
$85,500,000
4.94%
2004
Patriots
Tom Brady
$5,058,750
$80,582,000
6.28%
2003
Patriots
Tom Brady
$3,318,750
$75,007,000
4.42%
2002
Buccaneers
Brad Johnson
$5,500,000
$71,101,000
7.74%
2001
Patriots
Tom Brady
$310,833
$67,405,000
0.46%
2000
Ravens
Trent Dilfer
$1,000,000
$62,172,000
1.61%
1999
Rams
Kurt Warner
$750,000
$57,288,000
1.31%
1998
Broncos
John Elway
$2,543,666
$52,388,000
4.86%
1997
Broncos
John Elway
$2,058,666
$41,454,000
4.97%
1996
Packers
Brett Favre
$4,175,000
$40,753,000
10.24%
1995
Cowboys
Troy Aikman
$3,500,000
$37,100,000
9.43%
1994
49ers
Steve Young
$4,025,000
$34,608,000
11.63%
As you can see, Tom Brady set the record for highest % of the cap taken up by a Super Bowl winning QB in 2020 at 12.61%. That means that if any QB who costs more than $26.3m against the cap wins the Super Bowl this year, they would set that record.
This is the list:
2022
Titans
Ryan Tannehill
$38,600,000
$208,200,000
18.54%
2022
Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes
$35,793,381
$208,200,000
17.19%
2022
Vikings
Kirk Cousins
$31,416,668
$208,200,000
15.09%
2022
Lions
Jared Goff
$31,150,000
$208,200,000
14.96%
2022
Packers
Aaron Rodgers
$28,533,569
$208,200,000
13.70%
2022
Commanders
Carson Wentz
$28,294,119
$208,200,000
13.59%
2022
49ers
Jimmy Garoppolo
$26,950,000
$208,200,000
12.94%
Of course that record is likely to be broken soon as QBs cost relatively more & more, but it should be clear that it will be easier for the Bills to win this year than next:
Yes, great post. Also illuminates how screwed you are if your choice is to give a Carson Wentz or Jared Goff a deal like that or go back into QB purgatory by letting them walk.
Edit: I mean, Goff costing 15% of the Lions salary cap is . . . something.
Well, I mean I wasted hours & hours of my life arguing about Kirk Cousins. It definitely wasn't one of my better life choices (even though I still think I was right).
What sort of parameters are you looking at? Highest paid receiver? Best receiver? Total wide receiver spend? That would be much more difficult to chart & likely noisier.
Yes, great post. Also illuminates how screwed you are if your choice is to give a Carson Wentz or Jared Goff a deal like that or go back into QB purgatory by letting them walk.
Well, I mean I wasted hours & hours of my life arguing about Kirk Cousins. It definitely wasn't one of my better life choices (even though I still think I was right).
What sort of parameters are you looking at? Highest paid receiver? Best receiver? Total wide receiver spend? That would be much more difficult to chart & likely noisier.
That's a slightly different stat - the QBs on the list aren't necessarily the highest paid on the team they're just the 1 who started the SB.
I'll check next time I'm on a computer to see if the info is available for free, or if someone has the info & wants to send it to me, I can plug into spreadsheet.
Independent of the great QB-related information @JM3 has dug up, just look at the salary cap column on its own for a minute. The cap has tripled in the last 20 years. It's sextupled in the last 30 years!
I have to believe the Pats have been tracking this insightful ratio for years. Maybe even reviewing it with Brady towards the end. Thank you for compiling it JM3
Here's SB losing QBs. Some of these #s on the crappy QBs may be inaccurate, though...OverTheCap has a really good breakdown of cap hit for a player over each year of their career, but they don't have it available for everyone. Spotrac only has the amount earned in a year available for the older players, so for example the Chris Chandler thing may not be real.
Independent of the great QB-related information @JM3 has dug up, just look at the salary cap column on its own for a minute. The cap has tripled in the last 20 years. It's sextupled in the last 30 years!
Independent of the great QB-related information @JM3 has dug up, just look at the salary cap column on its own for a minute. The cap has tripled in the last 20 years. It's sextupled in the last 30 years!
and the poor owners are in such trouble monetarily they will complain about it in the next CBA negotiations. It really is crazy. Also that is often with the players share of revenue for the cap going down over that time period.
I think I'd have to pay Spotrac $30/year to get this information further back than 2019, which would probably be fine except the related productivity cost that would go along with the additional time I would waste on things lol.
I think I'd have to pay Spotrac $30/year to get this information further back than 2019, which would probably be fine except the related productivity cost that would go along with the additional time I would waste on things lol.
Looking at it, I'm not sure if they will have that data going back past 2011 anyway. Definitely don't want anyone wasting money on it if it's not doable.
Here's SB losing QBs. Some of these #s on the crappy QBs may be inaccurate, though...OverTheCap has a really good breakdown of cap hit for a player over each year of their career, but they don't have it available for everyone. Spotrac only has the amount earned in a year available for the older players, so for example the Chris Chandler thing may not be real.
Many of these players will be the Broncos' nucleus in the years to come. It is why, even after Elway retires, the Broncos expect to remain highly competitive.
But then I saw that after a 6-10 season the next year, they were actually 11-5 with Brian Griese the year after & also had some good Jake Plummer years not long after that.
Here's the chart with Chandler's # updated spoiled cuz redundancy:
But then I saw that after a 6-10 season the next year, they were actually 11-5 with Brian Griese the year after & also had some good Jake Plummer years not long after that.
Here's the chart with Chandler's # updated spoiled cuz redundancy:
This was something I looked into a lot for dumbazz reasons a few years ago on another message board (I vehemently argued that a team could never win a Super Bowl paying Kirk Cousins full market value).
This is interesting data, but it's incomplete. The Rams didn't pay QBs $20 MM last year ... they paid QBs $44.7 MM because of Goff's $24.7 MM dead charge. So LA was actually paying a massive amount of their cap to QBs and still won.
This is interesting data, but it's incomplete. The Rams didn't pay QBs $20 MM last year ... they paid QBs $44.7 MM because of Goff's $24.7 MM dead charge. So LA was actually paying a massive amount of their cap to QBs and still won.
Teams with non-elite, old, or rookie contract pretty good QBs going all-in on shorter windows with the understanding that they'll have to have a huge tax bill one year & tank that year is probably the optimal strategy to compete against teams with elite QBs who won't be able to tank & need to reload (e.g. Chiefs who have Mahomes' next 10+ years to manage).
Depends on what the cap does and how well you manage that money. In theory, if the cap keeps going up a decent amount every year, you can work around it. Like the Rams now, and the Saints have for years.
So long as you don't have bad luck (injuries, unexpected retirements, etc) that force your hand on how you allocate, but you are limiting yourself to the safety valves you have.
but you can keep the plates up in the air for a long time.
Cant' recall the podcast--maybe something with Robert Mays--but I heard someone saying that an unnamed GM articulated the salary cap in a way that made to sense to me.
As I recall it the explanation was: The cap is [I don't recall, say 175 million]. You're not going to win much with a 175 million roster. To win a superbowl your roster need to play like you have 225 million worth of players playing . So you need find that extra value somehow--rookies on cheap contracts playing well, not losing much value to injury, cheap vets outperforming their contracts, something.
I think that's roughly right. Indeed when you look at a lot of the underdog super bowl winners you see teams like the Ravens or Giants where they got a ton of that kind of outperformance by QB who played like absolute studs in the post season. Or you get the Pats getting a lot of surplus value from Brady.
Anyhow I think the point is you have to get that value from somewhere and if you are paying a good QB a lot that's probably fine but you need to do a pretty great job at roster construction everywhere else because it's going to be really hard for even a Mahomes or Allen to consistently play above a 40 or 50 million salary.
I'm still convinced the salary cap is becoming some Ponzi-scheme where teams just keep paying players more to restructure and extend to reduce cap hits.
"I learned it from watching you, US government" (sorry about the politics!)
Cant' recall the podcast--maybe something with Robert Mays--but I heard someone saying that an unnamed GM articulated the salary cap in a way that made to sense to me.
As I recall it the explanation was: The cap is [I don't recall, say 175 million]. You're not going to win much with a 175 million roster. To win a superbowl your roster need to play like you have 225 million worth of players playing . So you need find that extra value somehow--rookies on cheap contracts playing well, not losing much value to injury, cheap vets outperforming their contracts, something.
I think that's roughly right. Indeed when you look at a lot of the underdog super bowl winners you see teams like the Ravens or Giants where they got a ton of that kind of outperformance by QB who played like absolute studs in the post season. Or you get the Pats getting a lot of surplus value from Brady.
Anyhow I think the point is you have to get that value from somewhere and if you are paying a good QB a lot that's probably fine but you need to do a pretty great job at roster construction everywhere else because it's going to be really hard for even a Mahomes or Allen to consistently play above a 40 or 50 million salary.
I'm still convinced the salary cap is becoming some Ponzi-scheme where teams just keep paying players more to restructure and extend to reduce cap hits.
"I learned it from watching you, US government" (sorry about the politics!)
The math of amortizing the bonus money and the way dead cap works guarantees it cannot be some Ponzi scheme. Over say a 5 year period each team can spend roughly the same amount, with (small) differences coming from the cap growing year over year.
Still can’t believe the Union gave up the “uncapped” year with illegal collusion that was still capped cause the NFL explicitly fined teams for using it as an advantage.
This is interesting data, but it's incomplete. The Rams didn't pay QBs $20 MM last year ... they paid QBs $44.7 MM because of Goff's $24.7 MM dead charge. So LA was actually paying a massive amount of their cap to QBs and still won.
But "QB dead money" is no different than dead money for any other type of player.
I think the relevant question here is how much salary the roster QBs are getting and that is usually going to be defined by the starter's salary. But, for a team like the 2001 Pats, Bledsoe's salary might be the more relevant one - so the better measure might be how much a team is playing all of its rosteror IR QBs .
The interesting next step in this research (if it has not yet been done) is to look at the relationship between QB salary as a share of the cap and team success, either for all teams or just for playoff teams.
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