Round 1 Discussion: Celtics - Pacers

JakeRae

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 21, 2005
6,344
New York, NY
As others have pointed out, the problem with Simmons premise is that the issue has always been that Morris and, to a lesser degree, Rozier are playing too much. There are plenty of minutes for the correct top 7 guys on this team when healthy. The crazy thing all season has been that Brown and Hayward have been playing less than Morris, not that Smart was playing too much.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
17,611

Eh. The thing is Stevens is closing the game with the original starting 5 from opening day and expressing confidence in them.


That means you could basically have Smart take both Rozier and Morris’s combined 30 minutes and play Tatum primarily at the 4. Cutting Morris and Rozier to near zero isn’t going to be popular with them but they’re both free agents and it could win a game or series.

It shouldn’t disrupt the flow as those two took 15 shots last game. Smart should be taking fewer shots than that and Brown/Hayward can up their involvement even more.
Except that Morris was a crucial element in us winning G1 while Rozier was same in G2. You can’t bury players during the year then expect them to perform in the postseason.....you have it both ways.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 24, 2002
28,034
As others have pointed out, the problem with Simmons premise is that the issue has always been that Morris and, to a lesser degree, Rozier are playing too much. There are plenty of minutes for the correct top 7 guys on this team when healthy. The crazy thing all season has been that Brown and Hayward have been playing less than Morris, not that Smart was playing too much.
As Simmons notes, Morris only got 23+ minutes last night. Given Smart is out (and if chatter from guys like Grande is correct, he isn't likely going to back anytime soon) its hard to find an issue with his minutes this series. Stevens is also using Rozier to take over Smart's ball handling duties when paired with Irving to free Kyrie up to hunt offense.

Per the gamethread, its hard to argue with Stevens rotations this series - anyone who expects Morris to be stapled to the bench isn't being realistic. He is horrible defensively but the Cs need his offense. Furthermore, he, at least, has the ability to play both ends of the floor somewhat effectively and can handle switches. Theis would be exposed defensively on switches while Semi is still a liability on offense.

None of this will change Stevens-critics minds (and maybe some of those people do know better than the current Cs coach) but the minutes/rotations have some logic to them.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
3,878
Lisbon, PT
Per the gamethread, its hard to argue with Stevens rotations this series - anyone who expects Morris to be stapled to the bench isn't being realistic. He is horrible defensively but the Cs need his offense. Furthermore, he, at least, has the ability to play both ends of the floor somewhat effectively and can handle switches. Theis would be exposed defensively on switches while Semi is still a liability on offense.
I think Brad is more concerned about what Theis does to spacing on offense. They clearly like the fact that Morris draws hard closeouts and requires attention from his defender. Theis simply doesn't do the other things a not-great-shooting big has to do to not clog up an offense (set great screens, provide vertical spacing, etc).
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
3,878
Lisbon, PT
Except that Morris was a crucial element in us winning G1 while Rozier was same in G2. You can’t bury players during the year then expect them to perform in the postseason.....you have it both ways.
People harping on Rozier are letting the regular season cloud their perception. He started playing really differently on both ends once the playoffs started, and should definitely be getting minutes with Smart out.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
17,611
People harping on Rozier are letting the regular season cloud their perception. He started playing really differently on both ends once the playoffs started, and should definitely be getting minutes with Smart out.
Which one would expect him to do once the games begin to matter and individual agendas tend to be put on the back burner. This was why I was always a proponent of Brad getting him regular rotation minutes all year in preparation of the real games beginning.
 

amarshal2

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 25, 2005
4,591
Except that Morris was a crucial element in us winning G1 while Rozier was same in G2. You can’t bury players during the year then expect them to perform in the postseason.....you have it both ways.
I’m talking about in the playoffs. I’m not suggesting a 7 man regular season rotation.
 

Red Averages

owes you $50
SoSH Member
Apr 20, 2003
5,121
We also saw the Celtics shorten their rotation and give the starters more minutes as the playoffs went on last year. So id expect that we see that again this year, ideally as Smart is getting back as well. I’d expect Semi to get some run vs the Bucks.
 

amarshal2

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 25, 2005
4,591
I’m still curious of how Time Lord would match up against Giannis for a couple minutes a game
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
3,878
Lisbon, PT
I’m still curious of how Time Lord would match up against Giannis for a couple minutes a game
He’s just too much of an offensive liability right now. People are going to be pissed at how much Morris plays vs Milwaukee, but it’s a necessary risk: you simply have to give yourself a chance to put up points against them, and Morris has really high variance both ways.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 24, 2002
28,034
I’m still curious of how Time Lord would match up against Giannis for a couple minutes a game
I think Giannis would destroy TimeLord but who knows - this is no knock on Williams as even elite, seasoned NBA defenders struggle to contain him. That said, i won't be surprised if Stevens does, indeed, try him for a few minutes if the C's wind up facing the Bucks.
 

Red Averages

owes you $50
SoSH Member
Apr 20, 2003
5,121
I’m still curious of how Time Lord would match up against Giannis for a couple minutes a game
I feel like he’d likely foul out in 5 minutes while being a liability on offense, vs. semi where we know he can stop (slow down) Giannis and space the floor while hitting occasional 3s from the corner. That said, wouldn’t surprise me if they try both of the GF does GF things as he likely will.
 

Montana Fan

Well-Known Member
Silver Supporter
SoSH Member
Oct 18, 2000
7,913
Twin Bridges, Mt.
While I wouldn’t mind seeing TL get a little run, Giannis would abuse him. He’s way too strong. TL 2 years from now, may be a different story.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 24, 2002
28,034
According to this: JB vs. BB = 84 possessions / 12 points / 5-15 shooting. Wow.
Free throw shooting aside, Brown is making a case to be considered a premium player in the sense that he is an extremely athletic, effective three and D wing. Those guys are the coin of the realm in the NBA given that they allow coaches to do the switch-everything lineups. If the C's had to bench one of Tatum or Brown for the rest of the playoffs, I am going with sit Tatum and play Brown without hesitation. Fortunately they can play both!
 

Jimbodandy

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 31, 2006
2,701
around the way
Free throw shooting aside, Brown is making a case to be considered a premium player in the sense that he is an extremely athletic, effective three and D wing. Those guys are the coin of the realm in the NBA given that they allow coaches to do the switch-everything lineups. If the C's had to bench one of Tatum or Brown for the rest of the playoffs, I am going with sit Tatum and play Brown without hesitation. Fortunately they can play both!
I do love how complementary they are. Wouldn't want to have to choose either to sit. Tatum's scoring and BBIQ on offense is so huge, but Brown causes big problems for opponents defensively.

Big part of me would be psyched to watch these guys grow up here, even if that means that the white whale gets away.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 24, 2002
28,034
Big part of me would be psyched to watch these guys grow up here, even if that means that the white whale gets away.
I have the same struggle of heart and mind. The latter knows that the White Whale means the C's are closer to the next championship while the former wants to watch these guys grow up in the system.
 

RedOctober3829

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
38,181
deep inside Guido territory
I do love how complementary they are. Wouldn't want to have to choose either to sit. Tatum's scoring and BBIQ on offense is so huge, but Brown causes big problems for opponents defensively.

Big part of me would be psyched to watch these guys grow up here, even if that means that the white whale gets away.
I'm hoping they just have to trade one of them for Davis. Brown hopefully plays his way into making the Pelicans decide between the two.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
31,056
I'm hoping they just have to trade one of them for Davis. Brown hopefully plays his way into making the Pelicans decide between the two.
I would be pretty shocked if it took both. Check that, incredibly shocked. Tatum is already the best they’ll get unless Zion is in play. Ainge has a buttload of picks to add to the deal along with lotto ticket like Time Lord, if needed.

If I had to guess, I think the deal comes down to Tatum and maybe 1-2 picks or Brown and most of the picks.
 

JakeRae

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 21, 2005
6,344
New York, NY
As Simmons notes, Morris only got 23+ minutes last night. Given Smart is out (and if chatter from guys like Grande is correct, he isn't likely going to back anytime soon) its hard to find an issue with his minutes this series. Stevens is also using Rozier to take over Smart's ball handling duties when paired with Irving to free Kyrie up to hunt offense.

Per the gamethread, its hard to argue with Stevens rotations this series - anyone who expects Morris to be stapled to the bench isn't being realistic. He is horrible defensively but the Cs need his offense. Furthermore, he, at least, has the ability to play both ends of the floor somewhat effectively and can handle switches. Theis would be exposed defensively on switches while Semi is still a liability on offense.

None of this will change Stevens-critics minds (and maybe some of those people do know better than the current Cs coach) but the minutes/rotations have some logic to them.
I have no issue with the minutes this series. I was disputing the premise from Simmons that Smart being out is the reason there are suddenly sufficient minutes for Brown and Hayward. There weren’t enough minutes for those 2 all year because Stevens continued to play Morris 30 mpg. Now, maybe that was necessary to manage egos and the roster effectively. And I’m not going to second guess Stevens, who I still believe is one of the best in the league and who is using the correct performance maximizing rotation now that we are in the playoffs. But, Smart being hurt does nothing but hurt this team and I was responding to the implication that there may be some sort of silver lining in Simmons tweet. There isn’t. Smart being hurt just means our shortened rotation features more Morris and Rozier instead of Smart, and even with their strong performances so far, neither is close to the player Smart is.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 24, 2002
28,034
I have no issue with the minutes this series. I was disputing the premise from Simmons that Smart being out is the reason there are suddenly sufficient minutes for Brown and Hayward. There weren’t enough minutes for those 2 all year because Stevens continued to play Morris 30 mpg. Now, maybe that was necessary to manage egos and the roster effectively. And I’m not going to second guess Stevens, who I still believe is one of the best in the league and who is using the correct performance maximizing rotation now that we are in the playoffs. But, Smart being hurt does nothing but hurt this team and I was responding to the implication that there may be some sort of silver lining in Simmons tweet. There isn’t. Smart being hurt just means our shortened rotation features more Morris and Rozier instead of Smart, and even with their strong performances so far, neither is close to the player Smart is.
Agreed all the way around.

As a side note, Simmons is getting dragged by "Celtics Twitter" (weird or otherwise) for his Clippers fandom amongst other things. I think its kind of unfair but for a guy who knows the NBA pretty well, he often has some odd takes.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
17,611
Yeah a team down 3-0 generally has trouble with resolve in one of the middle quarters against an opponents run. The G4 numbers usually reflect this. I recall last years Raptor/Cavs series.....G3 was a 2-point game as a 4-pt fav, then G4 was 6.5 or 7 as the Cavs won by 30 or so

If Houston wins G3 in Utah I’d expect the same type of shift maybe even greater.
Disclaimer: Self-quote for update with context.

Boston up to -3.5 in some places now. Milwaukee was -9.5 yesterday, opened G4 late last night at -10.5 and quickly bet up to 12. Houston was +2.5 yesterday and opened G4 for the sweep at -2.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
17,611
Early Sunday start times are generally tough on the home team as their gameday routine is altered which sometimes results in ugly low-scoring games......now imagine that level of excitement being down 3-0 in a hopeless situation with the "reward" being a trip to Boston next week? I expect a less than stellar effort from the Pacers with several players beginning their summer vacation early as the Celtics continue the businesslike attitude of Kyrie's "coiuntdown to 16 wins" mantra.

Bos 97
Indy 79
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
17,611
HRB, you've been spot on with all your predictions so far (gambling related) this playoffs. Appreciate the insight.
Thank you for the kinds words. I did miss a few days in there, one was meh the other I nailed, I'll try to continue in the playoff thread each day.
 

DrewDawg

Dorito Dink
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
33,895
Any have what the actual record is in game 4 of teams trailing 3-0 in the NBA? My google-fu can't find it.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
17,611
Since 2005, teams down 0-3 are 20-39 in the next game.
Thanks for the work. I wish we could break this down by point spreads say >5 vs <5 otherwise we are viewing a possible Detroit win over Milwaukee as a Utah win over Houston in a similar manner which obviously shouldn’t be the case. The point margins in these games would be interesting as well.
 
Last edited:

TripleOT

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 4, 2007
1,833
A big part of playoff basketball is taking away strengths of the other team. The Celtics held Bogdonavich down, limiting his non-paint shots to 9 buckets made on 38 jumpers. (game 1, 1-5, game, 2, 3-11, game 3, 4-15, game 4, 1-7). He went 7-22 from three, an astoundingly bad 2-16 on jumpers inside the arc, and generated only 25 points on his 38 jumpers, .65 points per shot. He was 25-63 overall, converting 16 of 25 shots in the paint, and managed 72 points in the series, averaging 18 ppg.

Great work by Brown and company not letting BB go off, even for one game.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
17,611
A big part of playoff basketball is taking away strengths of the other team. The Celtics held Bogdonavich down, limiting his non-paint shots to 9 buckets made on 38 jumpers. (game 1, 1-5, game, 2, 3-11, game 3, 4-15, game 4, 1-7). He went 7-22 from three, an astoundingly bad 2-16 on jumpers inside the arc, and generated only 25 points on his 38 jumpers, .65 points per shot. He was 25-63 overall, converting 16 of 25 shots in the paint, and managed 72 points in the series, averaging 18 ppg.

Great work by Brown and company not letting BB go off, even for one game.
I think it should be noted that when the key guy that you need to shutdown is Bojan Bogdanovic, a guy whose had only 10 games of 25 or more points this year, in a playoff series you're in pretty good shape to begin with.

It was also nice to see MaMo and Scary Terry salute their haters again today. We aren't going very far without offensive production from our secondary scorers and will certainly need them to be exceptional in the next series.
 

TripleOT

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 4, 2007
1,833
I think it should be noted that when the key guy that you need to shutdown is Bojan Bogdanovic, a guy whose had only 10 games of 25 or more points this year, in a playoff series you're in pretty good shape to begin with.

It was also nice to see MaMo and Scary Terry salute their haters again today. We aren't going very far without offensive production from our secondary scorers and will certainly need them to be exceptional in the next series.
Well I remember a team last season missing their leading scorer/all star/closer and that team made it to within a couple of made threes of the finals. The Celtics can't control who they play, just how they play them. If BB was allowed to go off for a bunch of uncontested threes, it could have been a different series. BB scored 25 or more points in a quarter of the games played since Olidapo was hurt. Holding him down was job one, and it got done. Of course, job one in series two will be a lot more difficult.

Game 4 was a game that lesser talented team could have lost easily, but the quality depth of the Celtics got it done for them. Not many teams have the luxury to not miss a beat in crunch time when their closer can't make a shot. Kyrie deferring to Hayward, and Hayward delivering every time, bode well for the future.
 

Big John

lurker
Dec 9, 2016
1,524
It would have been a more interesting matchup if the Pacers had Oladipo and the Celtics has Smart.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 24, 2002
28,034
Cs had turnover issues early and the result was a close game for three plus quarters. When they reverted to their season average by only making three in the fourth, they began to pull away.
 

TripleOT

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 4, 2007
1,833
This was only the third sweep in the 4-5 first round match up. The others were the 4 seed Mavs over the Griz in 2006 and the 5 seed Bulls over the Heat the next season.
 

benhogan

Baynes Hogan
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
6,155
Santa Monica
The sweep is great. Love these guys getting rest and practice in with a new sense of purpose.

Is there an update on Brogdon?

Bucks will be merciless tomorrow, they've been wanting this Celtic rematch for 12 months.
 
Last edited:

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
17,611
The sweep is great. Love these guys getting rest and practice in with a new sense of purpose.

Is there an update on Brogdon?
The last I've heard was on March 16th the Bucks said 6 to 8 weeks so possibly toward the end of the series?
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
31,056
The sweep is great. Love these guys getting rest and practice in with a new sense of purpose.

Is there an update on Brogdon?

Bucks will be merciless tomorrow, they've been wanting this Celtic rematch for 12 months.
Unfortunately for them, they won’t be getting a rematch. They’ll be getting Kyrie and Hayward. It’s going to be a lot of fun.
 

benhogan

Baynes Hogan
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
6,155
Santa Monica
Unfortunately for them, they won’t be getting a rematch. They’ll be getting Kyrie and Hayward. It’s going to be a lot of fun.
Ha. So much of the national NBA media will be on Milwaukee. With no Brogdon, the Celtics match up very well with these Bucks.
 

Red Averages

owes you $50
SoSH Member
Apr 20, 2003
5,121
Ha. So much of the national NBA media will be on Milwaukee. With no Brogdon, the Celtics match up very well with these Bucks.
Agreed. Even with him, feels like the Celtics have the right personnel to slow down Giannis and exploit some match ups. Will be a great series, but ultimately I think the Celtics should be slight favorites (they won't be). I'm most worried about Toronto in the East, but we can cross that path after the Celtics take a 3-1 lead in this series. :drums:
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 26, 2005
16,331
I'm not seeing that anywhere else.

But it is Monday and I haven't had coffee.
On April 12, Budenholzer said "sometime in the second round" (see below). Assuming MIL sweeps, 1st game would be before May, which would be about six weeks since the March 15 injury. That would be really aggressive of MIL.

 

Strike4

Well-Known Member
Gold Supporter
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
1,355
Portland, Maine
Closing out in four games is a really good sign, especially given the Celtics' issues with that over the past decade or so. I do think that the Pacers were tough but good almost as a "preseason" matchup: they were not able to make the Celtics pay for either the high number of turnovers or the stretches of starving offense. But hopefully this highlighted those as something that will need to be reigned in the next round.
 

benhogan

Baynes Hogan
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
6,155
Santa Monica
Closing out in four games is a really good sign, especially given the Celtics' issues with that over the past decade or so. I do think that the Pacers were tough but good almost as a "preseason" matchup: they were not able to make the Celtics pay for either the high number of turnovers or the stretches of starving offense. But hopefully this highlighted those as something that will need to be reigned in the next round.
we had 3 questions answered:
1. Celtics winning a game on the road...check, check
2. Hayward taking his game up with the stakes higher...check
3. Jaylen embracing defense-first role w/starting group...check

plus we got more:
4. Rozier picking up full court/physical defense...where was that all season?
5. MaMo going back to his bench/limited min role where he thrived to begin the season.

Celtics/Bucks has all the makings of a 7 game series...coin toss on who wins if Brogdon isn't available or himself.
 
Last edited: