Round 1 Discussion: Celtics - Pacers

Red Averages

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Bojan Bogdanovic is their "star" scorer. Celtics in 4.
This is where I'm at. I think this is an extremely comfortable series, much like when the Cavs played the Celtics a few years ago in the IT years.

Games 2, 3, 4 will conflict with Bruins games 4, 5, 6
This is actually infuriating. It's bad enough that the NBA stretches out their first few rounds for no reason, but to lose audience when it is so easy to plan for this is so short sighted. It's not like they didn't know when the Bruins were playing.
 

Captaincoop

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What percentage of fans in Boston actively watch both the Celtics and Bruins?

I doubt this impacts the ratings in Boston to the degree that it in turn impacts the overall ratings to the point that the NBA cares.
 

Jimbodandy

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What percentage of fans in Boston actively watch both the Celtics and Bruins?

I doubt this impacts the ratings in Boston to the degree that it in turn impacts the overall ratings to the point that the NBA cares.
While many may prefer to watch both, I doubt that many will agonize over which game to watch live on a given night. You're right about that.
 

HomeRunBaker

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This is actually infuriating. It's bad enough that the NBA stretches out their first few rounds for no reason, but to lose audience when it is so easy to plan for this is so short sighted. It's not like they didn't know when the Bruins were playing.
The media companies purchase the NBA’s broadcast rights and set the schedule based on their data to best maximize eyeballs. Silver and the league don’t set the broadcast schedule.

This isn’t like Patriots/Red Sox which has a high crossover pct. The NBA numbers blow away the NHL and the suits recognize this......are Celtics fans really going to suddenly miss the game to watch the Bruins? Does it even matter today with DVR?
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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In thinking of how you would play the Celtics with the Pacers personnel, the key is getting good shooting out of their deep rotation of veteran NBA players and exploiting the C's tendency to be lazy in helping, especially with Smart out. .

Bogdonavich is the key but they have been getting scoring from Sabonis, Evans, McDermott, Collison and even notorious chucker Wes Matthews. The problem is that Indiana is a plodding team and their pace has fallen from fifth in the league before the AS break (i.e. right around Oladipo's injury) to 18th since then so they are going to have to pick things up to keep Boston from getting their defense set.

If the C's poor defensive tendencies reemerge - and I bet the Pacers attack Morris, Irving, Rozier and even Hayward when they are on the floor - this series could go all the way.

On the other hand, if the C's do a good job chasing Indiana off the three point line (Indiana went from fourth in 3p% to third after Oladipo went down), this series should be easy for them.

In short, this series will turn on how well Boston defends. /Master of the obvious.
 

benhogan

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I’d we take a leap and assume that Brad was going to be aggressive with shortening the rotation (eg Rozier was playing 0 mins in a close game) and that Tatum wasn’t playing more than ~15 mins a game at the 4, then this isn’t that huge of a deal. It’s something like Rozier picks up 10 mins, brown picks up 10 mins, Hayward 5, Tatum 5, Kyrie 5. Unless you think there’s a big drop in performance in those marginal minutes they’ll cover it okay save for the Rozier 10 minutes. I think the loss is more his leadership.

If you assume Brad was going back to October and Tatum was playing 30 mins at the 4 then this is a loss in that Morris is picking up 15 mins that could’ve gone to Smart. So 25 or Smarts 30-35 mins are being filled by Rozier and Morris. That’s tough.
My hope for Celtic playoff mpg (in a competitive game):
starters:
Kyrie 35mpg
Horford 35mpg
Tatum 35mpg
Hayward 35mpg
Baynes 28mpg

bench:
Brown 32mpg
MaMo 15mpg
Rozier 13mpg
Theis 12mpg


prediction: CBS will play MaMo and Rozier more than I like, at the expense of Brown, Theis, and Baynes.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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In thinking of how you would play the Celtics with the Pacers personnel, the key is getting good shooting out of their deep rotation of veteran NBA players and exploiting the C's tendency to be lazy in helping, especially with Smart out. .

Bogdonavich is the key but they have been getting scoring from Sabonis, Evans, McDermott, Collison and even notorious chucker Wes Matthews. The problem is that Indiana is a plodding team and their pace has fallen from fifth in the league before the AS break (i.e. right around Oladipo's injury) to 18th since then so they are going to have to pick things up to keep Boston from getting their defense set.

If the C's poor defensive tendencies reemerge - and I bet the Pacers attack Morris, Irving, Rozier and even Hayward when they are on the floor - this series could go all the way.

On the other hand, if the C's do a good job chasing Indiana off the three point line (Indiana went from fourth in 3p% to third after Oladipo went down), this series should be easy for them.

In short, this series will turn on how well Boston defends. /Master of the obvious.
BOS has been vulnerable to two things: (1) scoring guards switched onto mismatches (Kemba, Russell, Booker, etc.) and (2) big men rolling to the rim off the high PnR.

Game plan for IND is pretty simple.

(1) Limit Cs in transition. Means take care of ball and take good shots.
(2) Keep the ball moving on offense. Cs have tendency not to play full 24 seconds.
(3) Run high PnR with Turner and Sabomis.
(4) If all else fails, get into mismatch (wing being defended by guard; guard being defended by bug) and attack.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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BOS has been vulnerable to two things: (1) scoring guards switched onto mismatches (Kemba, Russell, Booker, etc.) and (2) big men rolling to the rim off the high PnR.

Game plan for IND is pretty simple.

(1) Limit Cs in transition. Means take care of ball and take good shots.
(2) Keep the ball moving on offense. Cs have tendency not to play full 24 seconds.
(3) Run high PnR with Turner and Sabomis.
(4) If all else fails, get into mismatch (wing being defended by guard; guard being defended by bug) and attack.
Agreed - and this is where the C's will miss Smart in this series imho. He cleans up a lot of (4) and was the primary defender on Bogdonavich a lot of the time. His versatility will also be felt when the Pacers get a big in the paint on a mismatch.
 

Jimbodandy

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Agreed - and this is where the C's will miss Smart in this series imho. He cleans up a lot of (4) and was the primary defender on Bogdonavich a lot of the time. His versatility will also be felt when the Pacers get a big in the paint on a mismatch.
I agree. Where they will miss Smart is that he wouldn't get in foul trouble. He makes competitive attempts at basically guarding anyone on switches without fouling.

In at least one of these games, Brown's minutes will be way down due to fouls. He doesn't have Smart's savvy. And Rozier hasn't proven to be anything other than a turnstile in both stature and effort the whole year.

Focus and engagement from most of the team should compensate somewhat. We'll see playoff defense Kyrie. Baynes will help on that end.

Smart will clearly be missed there though.
 

amarshal2

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My hope for Celtic playoff mpg (in a competitive game):
starters:
Kyrie 35mpg
Horford 35mpg
Tatum 35mpg
Hayward 35mpg
Baynes 28mpg

bench:
Brown 32mpg
MaMo 15mpg
Rozier 13mpg
Theis 12mpg


prediction: CBS will play MaMo and Rozier more than I like, at the expense of Brown, Theis, and Baynes.
What I’d like to see:
starters:
Kyrie 38mpg
Horford 35mpg
Tatum 38mpg
Brown 35mpg
Baynes 28mpg

bench:
Hayward 35mpg
MaMo 15mpg
Rozier 10mpg
Theis 6mpg

Agree Brad is going to spread it out more.

This is also why I said Smart’s mins dont have a huge impact unless you’re playing Tatum at the 4. If you’re trying to minimize Tatum at the 4, Smarts mins go 10 to Rozier and 20 to Brown/Hayward/Tatum. If you’re comfortable playing Tatum heavily at the 4 then Smarts minutes come from MaMo/Rozier/Theis and you’ve got a 7 man rotation.
 
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wade boggs chicken dinner

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Love Marcus but he's averaging 27 minutes per game and they can easily give the majority of those minutes to JB and GH without losing much if anything on the defensive end vs. IND.

Marcus will be missed more when they have to play ORL in the next round . . . . :)
 

CreedBratton

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Love Marcus but he's averaging 27 minutes per game and they can easily give the majority of those minutes to JB and GH without losing much if anything on the defensive end vs. IND.

Marcus will be missed more when they have to play ORL in the next round . . . . :)
It will be Bucks or Pistons. But, the Bucks.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Love Marcus but he's averaging 27 minutes per game and they can easily give the majority of those minutes to JB and GH without losing much if anything on the defensive end vs. IND.

Marcus will be missed more when they have to play ORL in the next round . . . . :)
I disagree. Hayward's defense isn't back to what it was pre-injury and opposing teams have exploited it all season. He knows where he needs to be but is still having difficulty getting to the spot. I bet McMillan has his guys target him in one on one situations and tries to get mismatches or actions where Hayward is the helper.
 

mcpickl

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My hope for Celtic playoff mpg (in a competitive game):
starters:
Kyrie 35mpg
Horford 35mpg
Tatum 35mpg
Hayward 35mpg
Baynes 28mpg

bench:
Brown 32mpg
MaMo 15mpg
Rozier 13mpg
Theis 12mpg


prediction: CBS will play MaMo and Rozier more than I like, at the expense of Brown, Theis, and Baynes.
I'd go


starters:
Kyrie 36mpg
Horford 34mpg
Tatum 32mpg
Brown 32mpg
Baynes 26mpg

bench:
Hayward 30mpg
MaMo 25mpg
Rozier 12mpg
Theis 8mpg
Semi 5mpg

I think Jaylen is an easy call to start. Need the quicker, more athletic defender in the game to start next to Kyrie. Also, want to have at least one of Hayward and Kyrie on the floor at all times. Would be tough to have them both start and pull that off.

I know Brad is going to play Kyrie and Rozier together, giving Rozier more than 12 minutes. I wouldn't do it. Unless Indiana plays Collison and Joseph together, a Kyrie/Rozier backcourt is too small and defensively challenged for me. They'll be posted up relentlessly against anyone but the Indiana PGs.
 

benhogan

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I'd go


starters:
Kyrie 36mpg
Horford 34mpg
Tatum 32mpg
Brown 32mpg
Baynes 26mpg

bench:
Hayward 30mpg
MaMo 25mpg
Rozier 12mpg
Theis 8mpg
Semi 5mpg

I think Jaylen is an easy call to start. Need the quicker, more athletic defender in the game to start next to Kyrie. Also, want to have at least one of Hayward and Kyrie on the floor at all times. Would be tough to have them both start and pull that off.

I know Brad is going to play Kyrie and Rozier together, giving Rozier more than 12 minutes. I wouldn't do it. Unless Indiana plays Collison and Joseph together, a Kyrie/Rozier backcourt is too small and defensively challenged for me. They'll be posted up relentlessly against anyone but the Indiana PGs.
I think Brown responded better to being a top scoring option with the 2nd unit. and figured Hayward could guard Bog... I do like the concept of having one of either Kyrie or Hayward on the floor at all times.

I really have no idea who Brad will start with Baynes/Horford/Tatum/Irving. I wouldn't be shocked if it was Hayward or Brown... or even Semi
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I disagree. Hayward's defense isn't back to what it was pre-injury and opposing teams have exploited it all season. He knows where he needs to be but is still having difficulty getting to the spot. I bet McMillan has his guys target him in one on one situations and tries to get mismatches or actions where Hayward is the helper.
IMO, the problem for IND is that they can hunt mismatches but I don't think they have anyone who can win mismatches consistently against playoff basketball defense. As HRB noted elsewhere, they are like the Cs from last year - the lack a guy that can break down a defense in the half-court consistently. GH should be fine in this series.

Marcus will be missed in the next series.
 

chilidawg

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IMO, the problem for IND is that they can hunt mismatches but I don't think they have anyone who can win mismatches consistently against playoff basketball defense. As HRB noted elsewhere, they are like the Cs from last year - the lack a guy that can break down a defense in the half-court consistently. GH should be fine in this series.

Marcus will be missed in the next series.
Comparing them to the C's from last year doesn't make me feel very good. That team was pretty successful.
 

Big John

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I just hope the Celtics watched yesterday's EC games and that they understand what can happen when a team plays indifferent and/or sloppy defense against a less talented opponent.
 

tims4wins

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I just hope the Celtics watched yesterday's EC games and that they understand what can happen when a team plays indifferent and/or sloppy defense against a less talented opponent.
Hope they were paying attention too - 3 home teams lost game one. Don’t give the Pacers hope. Take games 1 and 2 and roll.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Comparing them to the C's from last year doesn't make me feel very good. That team was pretty successful.
Last year's Cs got a really good draw - MIL, who was giving significant minutes to Jabari Parker, Dellanova, Thon Maker, and during the series John Henson, and then PHI. BOS didn't beat CLE in a series, probably wouldn't have beaten TOR in a seven-game series, and could have lost to IND as well.

Man, looking back at last year's playoffs - is it just me or has the Eastern Conference has really improved from last year? ORL as a 7 seed and BRK as the 6 seed seem way better than MIL and MIA last year.
 

lovegtm

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Man, looking back at last year's playoffs - is it just me or has the Eastern Conference has really improved from last year? ORL as a 7 seed and BRK as the 6 seed seem way better than MIL and MIA last year.
It's not just you--it's a trope to make fun of the East, but it has 4 very good teams, 1 pretty good team, 2 solid up-and-comers, and a few bad teams with promising futures (Atlanta, Chicago).
 

benhogan

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I'd go


starters:
Kyrie 36mpg
Horford 34mpg
Tatum 32mpg
Brown 32mpg
Baynes 26mpg

bench:
Hayward 30mpg
MaMo 25mpg
Rozier 12mpg
Theis 8mpg
Semi 5mpg

I think Jaylen is an easy call to start. Need the quicker, more athletic defender in the game to start next to Kyrie. Also, want to have at least one of Hayward and Kyrie on the floor at all times. Would be tough to have them both start and pull that off.

I know Brad is going to play Kyrie and Rozier together, giving Rozier more than 12 minutes. I wouldn't do it. Unless Indiana plays Collison and Joseph together, a Kyrie/Rozier backcourt is too small and defensively challenged for me. They'll be posted up relentlessly against anyone but the Indiana PGs.
You pretty much nailed it. Mook deserved those extra minutes since he was one of the few offensive bright spots in the 1st half.
 

TripleOT

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I was at the game today. Nate put Wes Matthews on Kyrie, and little Collison on Jaylen Brown to start the game, and they didn't duck Jaylen into the post once. Later in the first half, they had Collison on Tatum, and Jayson stood in the corner for most of the time Collison was defending him.

Tatum got three shots at the rim the entire game, and made two, but settled for five Kobe-esque two point jumpers. and made only one of them. Fortunately, he was 3-3 from three.

Brown, possibly channeling his fallen teammate Marcus Smart, took only five shots, and made one, a dunk and took only one other shot at the time, despite being covered by a six footer mush of his time on the court.

He was in Bogdanovic's face the entire game, and had him bogged down so much that BB threw at least two hissy fits about being closely guarded. Besides the points he picked up on that ridiculous clear path rule, he was a ghost for most of the game.

I wasn't a happy camper at halftime. If it wasn't for Morris being so dialed in, that could have been a 15 or more point deficit at the half. The starters couldn't establish a damn thing on offense, and the Pacers were making a few shots.

That third quarter display by the Pacers was ridiculous. 2-19 with 5 TOs? The Pacers were 4-27 in the second half on non-layups, an amazing 0-14 in the third quarter, and 4-13 in the fourth. They were 7-27 outside the restricted area in the first half. Their basket was right in front of me in the second half, and they just had a lid on the basket.

I don't know what they showed on the TV feed, but the two biggest ovations of the game were to Larry Bird and Robert Kraft.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Jaylen Brown absolutely owned Bogdanovic and the chippiness at the end was great too. If that continues, Boston should wrap this series up quickly.
 

lovegtm

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This defensive sequence at 1:49 was my favorite of the game, and looked exactly like the 2017-2018 team.


Morris, Kyrie, and Horford communicate and switch assignments perfectly to snuff out the PnR. Morris and Kyrie trade assignments several times and are totally in sync. Brown on the weakside stays completely locked on to Bogdanovic and smothers the attempted screen from Sabonis to free him.

Indy missed a lot of shots, and the game should have been closer (although the Celtics didn't shoot amazingly from 3 either), but the Celtics D in this game was absolutely for real, and has me believing they can play Celtics basketball. Not sure whether that will be enough to beat Milwaukee, but there's hope.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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IND scored 11 points off 10 BOS TOs in the first half and 2 points in the 2nd half. If the Cs can either limit IND in transition or cut down their TOs (I think they had 20 total, but a few were in garbage time), I don't see how IND scores enough to win.

The clip above is great but it shows IND's biggest problem: none of their players have enough gravity to break down the Cs defense. KI gets over the screen okay but Joseph is not good enough to force Morris to step out more, which means that the roll guy doesn't can only pop out to the 3P line, and that can be covered since Joseph isn't going to beat MaMo on the baseline.

Now if that was DiAngelo Russell or Kemba or even Oladipo with the ball, the spacing would have been different.
 

lovegtm

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IND scored 11 points off 10 BOS TOs in the first half and 2 points in the 2nd half. If the Cs can either limit IND in transition or cut down their TOs (I think they had 20 total, but a few were in garbage time), I don't see how IND scores enough to win.

The clip above is great but it shows IND's biggest problem: none of their players have enough gravity to break down the Cs defense. KI gets over the screen okay but Joseph is not good enough to force Morris to step out more, which means that the roll guy doesn't can only pop out to the 3P line, and that can be covered since Joseph isn't going to beat MaMo on the baseline.

Now if that was DiAngelo Russell or Kemba or even Oladipo with the ball, the spacing would have been different.
No argument that the Pacers are atrocious offensively without Oladipo: I was on record over a month ago wanting this matchup for specifically that reason. The Celtics held them to 17 points in the first 20 minutes of the 2nd half, before they pulled the starters. You can’t do that to an even halfway reasonable offense.

However, the defensive effort and communication was at a whole new level from the past few months, and that’s something they’ll need in order to try and hold Milwaukee to 105, for example.
 

HomeRunBaker

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As much of an improvement as the East has made this year it is a little sad to watch the Oladipo-less Pacers and the Griffin-less Pistons attempt to score against playoff schemed defenses. It isn’t like they have much room for adjustment either as the personnel simply isn’t in place.
 

Soxfan in Fla

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As much of an improvement as the East has made this year it is a little sad to watch the Oladipo-less Pacers and the Griffin-less Pistons attempt to score against playoff schemed defenses. It isn’t like they have much room for adjustment either as the personnel simply isn’t in place.
Yup. Those two teams without their best players had no shot in hell and really don’t even look like playoff teams. Oladipo makes our series much more competitive. Not sure Griffin does much more than make the margins closer against the Bucks though.
 

HowBoutDemSox

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I love Brown embracing the defensive-first role and not feeling the need to put up a lot of shots, especially given (1) he’s extension eligable this summer, (2) he’s been mentioned in Davis trades for a while now, even if not quite to the extent Tatum has been, and (3) there was much talk about him being off early in the season and the playoffs are a great time to boost his reputation, like he did in the post-season last year. That’s a lot of variables that could result in bad chemistry and trying to “get his” out there, but he handled it like a vet (other than maybe the shove near the end) and is embracing his role.
 

Light-Tower-Power

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Yup. Those two teams without their best players had no shot in hell and really don’t even look like playoff teams. Oladipo makes our series much more competitive. Not sure Griffin does much more than make the margins closer against the Bucks though.
Yeah, this Pacers team without Oladipo isn't a playoff team. Anything can happen I guess but this is probably the least interesting Celtics playoff series since the R1 series against Cleveland a few years ago. Indiana has no good villains either. The Bucks series will be 10 times more exciting.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I know, apples-oranges BUT, Farrell pinch running Wright comes to mind as equally stupid
It was either going to be Wright or Pomeranz running for Ortiz once he got to 2nd in a tie game and with Wright scheduled to start the next day the only remaining pitcher in the bullpen was Pomeranz so you can't really burn him to run. It is fairly common for pitchers to pinch run in national league parks...…..most of them don't go on the DL with a shoulder injury from it.
 

JCizzle

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It was either going to be Wright or Pomeranz running for Ortiz once he got to 2nd in a tie game and with Wright scheduled to start the next day the only remaining pitcher in the bullpen was Pomeranz so you can't really burn him to run. It is fairly common for pitchers to pinch run in national league parks...…..most of them don't go on the DL with a shoulder injury from it.
Between him and Claydro we don't have much luck with them on the bases haha
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Just to post it here, the Pacers were third in NBA.com's calculation of D-rating and the Cs were sixth. Games one and two were relatively close at points with the latter being a nail-biter at the end. We should expect more of the same throughout the series given that each squad has to focus on one opponent only. As everyone knows, when that happens in the playoffs, the games more often than not come down to whoever executes best. Fortunately, Boston has the best skill players on the floor.
 

lovegtm

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In the running evaluation of the two guys everyone loves to hate, I'm quite happy with playoff Rozier so far. He's back to playing with the defensive energy that made him so useful last year in the playoffs (pre Cleveland attacking him on switches), and he's doing more positive things on offense.

As for Morris--I don't care so much about the missed shots, but more the amount of touches he's getting in a non-secondary role. Brad really needs to scheme to get Hayward the ball more, especially in 2-man games with Kyrie. Hayward looked fine/good physically last night, and they just weren't running anything for him, ever.

Finally, the original starting 5 looked really, really good closing out the game. I expect to see them closing games from here on out.
 

HowBoutDemSox

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Finally, the original starting 5 looked really, really good closing out the game. I expect to see them closing games from here on out.
I wonder if Brad would have had the same five guys out there if Smart was healthy, or if Marcus would have been in instead of Jaylen or Hayward.