Road to the One Seed Stops at Number Two

[k-factory]

Why? How do the Pats own the tiebreaker over Cincy? Common opponents?

Yes. Common opponents.

Also worth noting, if Denver stumbles against Cinci next week and KC wins out, KC wins the division and secures the 3rd seed.

Assuming that scenario for a second, next week's game for the Jets matters a whole lot to the Broncos.

If the Jets beat the Pats, they are in as a 6 seed and the Broncos are out. Pitt would be a 5 seed.
If the Jets lose they are out, and the Broncos would be a 6 seed.

edit: http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine
Check 'tiebreakers' for the logic after punching in the scenarios

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

So, who owns the tie breaker between the Steelers and the Jets if they both end up at 11-5 (assuming the Chiefs also win out, and thus hold the tie breaker over both)?

Still a ton could happen, but at the moment, it seems as though a very likely scenario is:

Patriots
Bengals/Broncos Winner
Bengals/Broncos Loser
Texans
Chiefs
Steelers

 

[moondog80]

So, who owns the tie breaker between the Steelers and the Jets if they both end up at 11-5 (assuming the Chiefs also win out, and thus hold the tie breaker over both)?

Still a ton could happen, but at the moment, it seems as though a very likely scenario is:

Patriots
Bengals/Broncos Winner
Bengals/Broncos Loser
Texans
Chiefs
Steelers

I believe the Steelers are out if they all win out, because the Jets' win over NE would help them win the tiebreaker.

 

[dcmissle]

Yes. Common opponents.

Also worth noting, if Denver stumbles against Cinci next week and KC wins out, KC wins the division and secures the 3rd seed.

Assuming that scenario for a second, next week's game for the Jets matters a whole lot to the Broncos.

If the Jets beat the Pats, they are in as a 6 seed and the Broncos are out. Pitt would be a 5 seed.
If the Jets lose they are out, and the Broncos would be a 6 seed.

edit: http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine
Check 'tiebreakers' for the logic after punching in the scenarios

This underscores that something really weird before today is reasonably likely to happen.

 

[AB in DC]

I believe the Steelers are out if they all win out, because the Jets' win over NE would help them win the tiebreaker.

Unless Denver loses out, in which case KC gets the division and PIttsburgh/Jets are wild cards.

 

[k-factory]

I believe the Steelers are out if they all win out, because the Jets' win over NE would help them win the tiebreaker.

Incorrect. It all depends on the winner of next week's Cinci/Denver game.

If Denver wins and those 3 teams win out, the Jets are out and Pitt is the 6 seed.
If Cinci wins and those 3 teams win out, all 3 make it and Denver is out.

 

[AB in DC]

[ignore]

 

[shawnrbu]

I believe the Steelers are out if they all win out, because the Jets' win over NE would help them win the tiebreaker.

The Steelers would make up the half game difference by beating the Browns a 2nd time. The two teams would be 3-1 in common games and the Steelers will win the Strength of Victory tiebreaker.

 

[tims4wins]

If Steelers Jets and KC finish 11-5, and Denver finishes 12-4, Jets are out

If all four finish 11-5, Denver is out

 

[amarshal2]

So, who owns the tie breaker between the Steelers and the Jets if they both end up at 11-5 (assuming the Chiefs also win out, and thus hold the tie breaker over both)?

Still a ton could happen, but at the moment, it seems as though a very likely scenario is:

Patriots
Bengals/Broncos Winner
Bengals/Broncos Loser
Texans
Chiefs
Steelers

Pretty sure Broncos lose the division if they lose to Cin and KC wins out. In that case KC is 3 seed hosting...Denver, 6 seed (if Pitt also 11-5 they just won the breaker). That puts Pitt on road on Houston.

Dream scenario there is Houston and KC win putting Houston in NE for divisional round. Not happening but it's the best case outcome for Pats right now.

If Broncos beat Bengals then Bengals host Pitt and Houston hosts KC in WC round. There you root for Bengals and Houston although I think that's two under dogs where as the other scenario I think KC is pick 'em in Denver.

 

[BaseballJones]

Current standings:

AFC
1. NE 12-2
2. Cin 11-3
3. Den 10-4
4. Hou 7-7
5. KC 9-5
6. Pit 9-5
7. NYJ 9-5

NFC
1. Car 14-0
2. Ari 12-2
3. GB 10-4
4. Was 7-7
5. Sea 9-5
6. Min 9-5
7. Atl 7-7

Key issues to still be decided:

1. The #1 seed in the AFC. The Patriots are in good shape, needing only a win in one of their last two games to secure it. It's not settled yet, however, and I'd love to beat the Jets next week (for so many reasons) and be able to rest key players in week 17.

2. The #2 seed in the AFC. Right now it looks like a battle between Cincy and Denver. They play an enormous game next week, the winner having the inside edge for the second bye. Cincy has at Denver and then home against Baltimore. Denver has Cincy and then SD at home. Schedule edge to Denver. I see them both finishing 12-4, with Denver getting the #2 seed via H2H victory over the Bengals.

3. AFC South winner. Houston looks like they're in good shape, but it isn't over yet either. Houston has games at Tennessee and home vs. Jax. They should get what they need there.

4. AFC Wild Card. Three teams, all 9-5, all playing very well. The Jets have the toughest road, not only because as of right now, they're on the outside looking in, but they also have to play the Patriots. KC has two pretty easy games left, and Pit is at Baltimore and Cleveland. The Jets could finish 11-5, having won six straight, including one against the Patriots, and still miss the playoffs. Good.

5. NFC East winner. Washington leads by a game, and plays at Philly and Dallas to end the year. The Giants need help, and have a tougher schedule, having to play at Minnesota and then home against Philly. Philly, at 6-8, plays home against Washington and then at the Giants, so they really can be the key player here.

As of right now, I think three of the bottom four seeds in the playoffs (KC, Pit, Sea) are better than the #3 and #4 seeds.

 

[PayrodsFirstClutchHit]

The scenarios on how the Pats clinch the #1 seed.

1) NE beats NYJ Week 16

2) NE beats MIA Week 17

3) NE loses both + DEN beats CIN Week 16 + DEN loses Week 17

4) NE loses both + CIN beats DEN Week 16 + CIN loses Week 17

 

[amarshal2]

The scenarios on how the Pats clinch the #1 seed.

1) NE beats NYJ Week 16

2) NE beats MIA Week 17

3) NE loses both + DEN beats CIN Week 16 + DEN loses Week 17

4) NE loses both + CIN beats DEN Week 16 + CIN loses Week 17

Do Pats not have tie breaker over Cinci? Isn't it just the Denver scenario?

Edit: never mind. Bengals are only 1 game back so this is correct as they would have a better record.

Now all you need is the 45 scenarios with a tie and it will be complete.

 

[gryoung]

I don't relish the Pats facing the Steelers, even with home field. The rapist is on his game and their passing offense is clicking.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

The rapist threw a terrible INT with 3 minutes to go in yesterday's game. He doesn't worry me that much.

 

[Saints Rest]

Correct me if I'm wrong:
Pats magic number for #1 seed is 1 against each of DEN and CIN. IOW, one Pats win or a loss by each team eliminates that team.

Jets can't win out and still miss the playoffs, can they? By that, I mean, if they win out, they are in, right?

 

[loshjott]

Current standings:

AFC
1. NE 12-2
2. Cin 11-3
3. Den 10-4
4. Hou 7-7
5. KC 9-5
6. Pit 9-5
7. NYJ 9-5


Key issues to still be decided:

1. The #1 seed in the AFC. The Patriots are in good shape, needing only a win in one of their last two games to secure it. It's not settled yet, however, and I'd love to beat the Jets next week (for so many reasons) and be able to rest key players in week 17.

2. The #2 seed in the AFC. Right now it looks like a battle between Cincy and Denver. They play an enormous game next week, the winner having the inside edge for the second bye. Cincy has at Denver and then home against Baltimore. Denver has Cincy and then SD at home. Schedule edge to Denver. I see them both finishing 12-4, with Denver getting the #2 seed via H2H victory over the Bengals.

Good analysis, but a small clarification. If Cincy beats Denver they have more than an inside edge, they've clinched a bye. In that scenario, Denver with 5 losses cannot get a bye and Cincy with 12 wins can't get passed for the division title.

 

[Silverdude2167]

I don't relish the Pats facing the Steelers, even with home field. The rapist is on his game and their passing offense is clicking.

Have you seen there defense? Their defense is really bad and the Pats is pretty good.

 

[Dan Murfman]

Correct me if I'm wrong:
Pats magic number for #1 seed is 1 against each of DEN and CIN. IOW, one Pats win or a loss by each team eliminates that team.

Jets can't win out and still miss the playoffs, can they? By that, I mean, if they win out, they are in, right?

Jets can win out and miss the playoffs. If they wind up in a 3 way tie with the Chiefs and Steelers they're out. They would make it if they wind up in a 4 way tie with Broncos, Steelers and Chiefs.

 

[amarshal2]

Correct me if I'm wrong:
Pats magic number for #1 seed is 1 against each of DEN and CIN. IOW, one Pats win or a loss by each team eliminates that team.

Jets can't win out and still miss the playoffs, can they? By that, I mean, if they win out, they are in, right?

It's almost like there's a thread you're posting in where you can read about these topics.

 

[DJnVa]

Correct me if I'm wrong:
Pats magic number for #1 seed is 1 against each of DEN and CIN. IOW, one Pats win or a loss by each team eliminates that team.

Jets can't win out and still miss the playoffs, can they? By that, I mean, if they win out, they are in, right?

1-It's all upthread, but yes, Pats need to go 1-1 to clinch #1 seed, because that will get them to 13 wins. Denver can't get there and NE now will hold tiebreaker over Cincy because of their loss to Steelers.

2--Yes they can--the Jets can stay home at 11-5 if Denver beats Cincy this week. KC at 11-5 as a wild card team knocks out the Jets. However if KC wins division at 11-5, then Jets can get in over Denver.

Also, go here: http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

 

[Ralphwiggum]

The rapist threw a terrible INT with 3 minutes to go in yesterday's game. He doesn't worry me that much.

The fear of the Steelers by some here is a bit overblown, but discounting them because Rapistburger threw an INT yesterday is dumb too.

 

[C4CRVT]

I tinkered with the playoff machine just now. That's some fun right there.

With regard to playoff scenarios in the AFC this year, the following seem to be reasonable assumptions (obviously anything can happen but whatever):
Week 16 games that matter- likely outcomes:
HOU over TEN
KC over CLE
IND over MIA
PIT over BAL
Week 17- games that matter- likely outcomes:
NJY over BUF
NE over MIA
CIN over BAL
IND over TEN
KC over OAK
DEN over SD

Then there are the games that matter that are huge difference makers in the playoff outcomes with outcomes less certain:
Week 16 games that matter:
NE at NYJ
CIN at DEN

I think that those two games are the key.
NE-CIN- results in (1) NE- (2) CIN- KC-HOU-PIT-DEN
NE-DEN results in (1) NE- (2) DEN-CIN-HOU-KC-PIT
NJY-CIN results in (1) NE-(2) CIN- KC-HOU-PIT-NJY
NYJ-DEN results in (1) NE-(2) DEN-CIN-HOU-KC-PIT

HOU has a game in hand against Indy and plays the Titans next week and the Jags. I'm giving them a 90% chance of winning AFC South. They're pretty much locked in to the #4 seed.

It's fascinating that Denver's season hangs in the balance. NE losing to the Jets could cost them the playoffs. Or put them in position for the #2 seed. 5 teams (NE,CIN, KC, HOU, PIT) have great odds to be in. Denver is likely in but there's a chance they could lose their spot to the Jets.

 

[tims4wins]

Yeah Denver kind of has to root for the Pats to win even though that kills their chances at the 1 seed.

 

[Stitch01]

Funny how that Denver/Bengals game turned out to be quasi-meaningless for the Pats (it can matter in hindsight under a few scenarios where the Pats lose out)

Crazy that Denver cant even clinch a playoff berth this week without help.

 

[Otis Foster]

The fear of the Steelers by some here is a bit overblown, but discounting them because Rapistburger threw an INT yesterday is dumb too.

Well, their O/L held up pretty well Sunday; the rapist moves well when the pocket crumbles; and they have some fearsome WRs (Brown; Wheaton - I'd hoped the NEP wld draft him - and Bryant). It's easy to see why the Steelers let Sanders walk. Their running game is crummy, or at least was for the time I was able to watch.

I can foresee a 41-38 shootout, if Brady has all of his weapons back. If he doesn't, or if Hightower is still hurting, it could be a long day.

 

[CausewayCoe]

I stopped worrying about potential playoff opponents in 2013. Cheering for the Ravens to beat Denver one week and then watching the Pats go home the next. Sitting there in that Chinese restaurant - I felt ashamed, foolish, bloated. How could I have been so dumb? Why did I root for Baltimore? Why didn't I stop after two egg rolls? Never again.

 

[snowmanny]

I know what you're saying. But a Houston-Cincinnati- Minnesota/Washington route to the Championship is possible.

 

[bakahump]

what the hell happened in Pittsburgh last week?
1st Half.....Pitt couldnt do anything right....game was over.
2nd Half......they scored pretty much at will (overcoming a 17 pt deficit)

Dont for a minute think that Pittsburgh opponents (Like BB) wont be dissecting that game (Both Halves) looking for root causes.

Anyone know why? Beyond the "They made adjustments". Injury?

 

[KiltedFool]

Well, their O/L held up pretty well Sunday; the rapist moves well when the pocket crumbles; and they have some fearsome WRs (Brown; Wheaton - I'd hoped the NEP wld draft him - and Bryant). It's easy to see why the Steelers let Sanders walk. Their running game is crummy, or at least was for the time I was able to watch.

I can foresee a 41-38 shootout, if Brady has all of his weapons back. If he doesn't, or if Hightower is still hurting, it could be a long day.

FWIW, Ben has been quoted in the press that the run pass split was by design:

“We always take the approach that we are going to do what we can and not do things according to the other team,” Roethlisberger said. “The reason why we probably threw the ball more than usual is because of the defense they gave us. They gave us a personnel group that ... we had to throw it.”

Ben has taken some injuries this season, but they've been more of the "twist something/got stepped on/fluky type stuff" than the "jailbreak and he got absolutely pounded". He has overall been far less battered this season than many previous seasons. The line has solidified pretty well under Munchak's teaching, even with arguably their two most critical pieces (Pouncey and Beachum) on IR. It's actually kind of funny to think that Pittsburgh has such a good draft record for receivers with their more pound the ball reputation. Of course that reputation came when they would pass to get a lead and then just pound Bettis for the rest of the game to drain the clock.

 

[KiltedFool]

what the hell happened in Pittsburgh last week?
1st Half.....Pitt couldnt do anything right....game was over.
2nd Half......they scored pretty much at will (overcoming a 17 pt deficit)

Dont for a minute think that Pittsburgh opponents (Like BB) wont be dissecting that game (Both Halves) looking for root causes.

Anyone know why? Beyond the "They made adjustments". Injury?

The press lists "keep communicating, quit trying to do too much, settle down, remain calm" as a lot of the reasoning. Joey Porter had a fiery speech (shocker) at halftime, couple of the veterans put their heads together to say "remain calm". DB rotation was adjusted some in the second half and they quit giving up huge cushions to the receivers on every play, coming up to press at least some of the time.

 

[PayrodsFirstClutchHit]

what the hell happened in Pittsburgh last week?
1st Half.....Pitt couldnt do anything right....game was over.
2nd Half......they scored pretty much at will (overcoming a 17 pt deficit)

Dont for a minute think that Pittsburgh opponents (Like BB) wont be dissecting that game (Both Halves) looking for root causes.

Anyone know why? Beyond the "They made adjustments". Injury?

Broncos have been playing poorly in the 2nd half of games. See the "Broncos fold again in second half.." story below.

http://www.9news.com/story/sports/nfl/denver-broncos/mike-klis/2015/12/20/denver-broncos-brock-osweiler-pittsburgh-steelers/77673492/

 

[pokey_reese]

Broncos have been playing poorly in the 2nd half of games. See the "Broncos fold again in second half.." story below.

http://www.9news.com/story/sports/nfl/denver-broncos/mike-klis/2015/12/20/denver-broncos-brock-osweiler-pittsburgh-steelers/77673492/

From ESPN: The Broncos outscored opponents by 40 points in the first half of their past three games. Problem is, they've been shut out 36-0 in the second half of those games.

 

[NYCSox]

The press lists "keep communicating, quit trying to do too much, settle down, remain calm" as a lot of the reasoning. Joey Porter had a fiery speech (shocker) at halftime, couple of the veterans put their heads together to say "remain calm". DB rotation was adjusted some in the second half and they quit giving up huge cushions to the receivers on every play, coming up to press at least some of the time.

It seemed like Blake lost some playing time, which was long overdue IMO.

 

[Old Fart Tree]

Can someone update now? Pats need a win next week or.... What?

 

[tims4wins]

If Pats lose they need Cincy to take a 4th loss and Denver to take a 5th loss.

If Denver wins tomorrow, then they would need Denver to lose in week 17.

If Cincy wins tomorrow, they would need Cincy to lose in week 17.

 

[soxhop411]

Can someone update now? Pats need a win next week or.... What?

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/upshot/2015-nfl-playoff-simulator.html?team=ne#den-cin-16=win&cin-bal-17=win&mia-ne-17=win&den-sd-17=loss

 

[PaulinMyrBch]

Can someone update now? Pats need a win next week or.... What?

LEADERS
1. Patriots (12-3): New England has clinched will earn home-field advantage with a win over Miami next week.

2. Bengals (11-3): Cincinnati has clinched the AFC North but would lose the tiebreaker to New England at 13-3, so Cincinnati needs to win out and New England needs to lose next week for the Bengals to earn the No. 1 seed.

3. Broncos (10-4): Denver owns the head-to-head tiebreaker with New England, so if the Broncos win out and the Patriots lose next week, the Broncos will be the AFC No. 1 seed. But if the Broncos lose out and the Jets, Chiefs and Steelers all win next week, the Broncos miss the playoffs.

 

[Stitch01]

If you like the Ravens chances better next week root for the Bengals. If you like the Chargers chances better root for Denver. Tie is close to the same functionally as a bengals win except then a bengals tie clinched home field.

 

[Rudy's Curve]

If you like the Ravens chances better next week root for the Bengals. If you like the Chargers chances better root for Denver. Tie is close to the same functionally as a bengals win except then a bengals tie clinched home field.

I assume you're saying a tie clinches HFA for the Pats? They'd be a half-game ahead of the Bengals so they'd still have to not lose a game of ground next week.

 

[Stitch01]

Actually you are right a tie doesn't help the Pats at all. I was saying two Bengals ties clinch but I 11-3-2 beats 12-4

 

[Hendu for Kutch]

Actually you are right a tie doesn't help the Pats at all. I was saying two Bengals ties clinch but I 11-3-2 beats 12-4

I realize this is academic, but why would 11-3-2 beat 12-4? ESPN's playoff machine has NE still getting #1 in that scenario, although I realize it may not be so fine tuned as to handle something so unlikely.

 

[Rudy's Curve]

Actually you are right a tie doesn't help the Pats at all. I was saying two Bengals ties clinch but I 11-3-2 beats 12-4

No it wouldn't - they're both .750 win percentages. Ties are counted as half a win and half a loss, not thrown out. If the Bengals somehow tie twice, the Pats would get HFA even with a loss since they'd win the tiebreaker.

 

[Sox and Rocks]

Baltimore played well against Pittsburgh today, obviously, and SD could best denver with rivers picking them apart, but neither is likely, so the pats can't hope that another team does their dirty work for them.

The bigger question is how the remaining teams should be sorted, though that is admittedly dangerous. IMO, the biggest threats to the pats are Cincy with a healthy dalton and KC, so you only want to play one of these teams, if necessary, and not til the afc championship. The best scenario for this is a Cincy win tomorrow which puts them in the two seed and puts KC in the three seed with denver as a wild card. This means the pats could play anyone but Cincy or KC at home in the divisional round (Denver, Houston, NYJ) and the winner of KC/Cincy at home in the AFC championship if the games play out as expected

 

[Boston Brawler]

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/25428648/sorting-the-sunday-pile-your-nfl-playoff-picture-need-to-know-is-all-right-here

This is a good breakdown of all the scenarios for seeding.

 

[k-factory]

IMO, the biggest threats to the pats are Cincy with a healthy dalton and KC, so you only want to play one of these teams, if necessary, and not til the afc championship.

If someone told you at the beginning of the season that your path to the SB was playing against Andy Reid and Marvin Lewis in Foxboro you'd take that in a cocaine heartbeat. No need to overthink it.

 

[Stitch01]

No it wouldn't - they're both .750 win percentages. Ties are counted as half a win and half a loss, not thrown out. If the Bengals somehow tie twice, the Pats would get HFA even with a loss since they'd win the tiebreaker.

Didn't know that, guess because it never comes up. Guess i was accidentally right originally.

 

[Section15Box113]

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/25428648/sorting-the-sunday-pile-your-nfl-playoff-picture-need-to-know-is-all-right-here

This is a good breakdown of all the scenarios for seeding.

From that piece, the Indy scenario is my favorite:

The Colts win the South Scooby-Doo ending scenario:

Massive longshot for Indianapolis here, and it's over if the Bengals win on Monday night. The Colts are hoping they can tie the Texans record-wise at 8-8 and have the strength of victory tilt their way (the fifth tiebreaker after record, division games, common games and conference games).

For that to happen, the Colts need the following to occur:

A) Broncos beat Bengals Week 16 MNF game

B) Colts beat Titans in Week 17

C) Jaguars beat Texans in Week 17

D) Bills beat Jets in Week 17

E) Dolphins beat Patriots in Week 17

F) Ravens beat Bengals in Week 17

G) Falcons beat Saints in Week 17

H) Raiders beat Chiefs in Week 17

I) Broncos beat Chargers in Week 17

J) Steelers beat Browns in Week 17

So if the Bengals can't take care of business tonight, not only would a NE win clinch home field, it would also bounce Indy.

 

[KenTremendous]

This is interesting: ESPN playoff machine has the Pats still with the #1 seed if they lose to the Fins, as long as CIN and DEN both *win*, and the Steelers beat CLE. Haven't seen that written about anywhere. Most places just have Pats as #1 IFF they win.

EDIT: Doesn't seem to matter if PIT beats CLE, just that CIN and DEN both win. Weird. If either wins and the other loses, and NWE loses, NWE is screwed. But if NWE loses and they both win, counterintuitively, NWE gets the bye. Is that right?!

EDIT X2: The only way I have the Pats not getting the 1 is if (a) they lose, (b) the Ravens beat Cincy, and (c) Denver beats the Bolts. Which, I suppose, is the more likely scenario (rather than SDG over DEN in Denver).

EDIT x3: If NWE loses, CIN and DEN both win, and BUF beats NYJ, DEN is the 1 and NWE is the 2.

 

[86spike]

This is interesting: ESPN playoff machine has the Pats still with the #1 seed if they lose to the Fins, as long as CIN and DEN both *win*, and the Steelers beat CLE. Haven't seen that written about anywhere. Most places just have Pats as #1 IFF they win.

Not sure how that works. Denver has head to head wins on both NE and CIN. Doesn't that trump?