The Bungles could really be reeling. If they lose @SF next week and PIT also wins, everything is in play
Road to the One Seed Stops at Number Two
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Nope. If Pitt and Jets both win out then Pitt makes it over Jets on tie-breakers.
Here are the approximate playoff odds from Nate Silver/538:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2015-nfl-predictions/
NE: In
Cin: 99% - don't lose out
Den: 98% (scenario listed above)
KC: 89% don't F up and it's theirs
Pitt: 79% -- control their destiny, favorable match-ups and tie breakers when compared to Jets
Indy: 48% -- Comes down to them vs. Houston
Hou: 47% -- Comes down to them vs. Indy
Jets: 25% -- probably need to win out and definitely need to get help to get in over Pitt (or KC/Den)
Buf: 8% -- hail mary
Jax: 6% - hail mary
How to root as a Pats fan? I'd love for Pitt to be out and Jets to replace them but it's not very likely and some of those scenarios come with the Pats losing the #1 seed and the ability to take week 17 off. I'm rooting for a Denver loss to Pitt since I think they probably beat the Bengals and for the Pats to try and beat the Titans (obvi) and Jets (somebody will argue against this because they're petrified of the Steelers) so they can lock up the #1 seed a week early and take week 17 off for health purposes.
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Yep I was fooling around with the ESPN Playoff machine and thought I had them all 11-5. Must messed something up.
They're 2 games apart in the standings with 3 to go. This is not true.
Edit: he's right about the division. It does impact whether they make the playoffs in some scenarios.
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The Bengals clinch the division with a conference win or Steelers loss. Ergo, if the Steelers win Sunday, the Bengals result for division purposes is irrelevant.
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So if the Bengals lose all 3 with their backup and Steelers win out, who's in?
The Bengals were 2-3 in their last 5 with Dalton. Without him, they could stink.
As far as I can tell using the playoff machine, if the Jets win out and the Bengals lose out, the Jets are in. But if the Jets go 2-1 and both finish 10-6 the Bengals are in.
The Steelers, but it would still be them even if the Bengals won Sunday and lost the other two. Therefore, Sunday's Bengal game is irrelevant for the division. It's also pretty much irrelevant for the bye assuming they can beat Baltimore at home if they happen to beat Denver. And considering all they need to do is beat Baltimore at home to win the division, I'm really not worried.
I'm not sure if it's the new website, but to me RedOctober's post is blank. If I hit "REPLY" I can see he posted some sort of media, but it's not showing up at all when I read the thread.
Anyone else get that? It could be some new filters by place of employment is using.
Long story short, what're you saying?
Anyone else get that? It could be some new filters by place of employment is using.
Long story short, what're you saying?
So, you're basing "irrelevance" on the assumption that the Bengals win a game they should win. I'm sure all the playoff teams could use some rest, let's just assign them wins for the games they should win.
You're right that their road to clinching is simple. But if they lose Sunday, that still keeps other options in play; and, as long as those options are in play, the result is relevant
I think his point is more that this week is not a conference or division game, so it's not going to cost them any tiebreaker issues with the Steelers either way. I think.
He's right that it has no impact on whether or not they win the division. I've yet to be able to find a scenario using the playoff machine where that niners game changes the AFCN division outcome. It has an impact on whether or not they make the playoffs.
It's not particularly likely the Bengals go 0-3 just because their starting QB is out. The same is true for all three teams they play (niners, broncos, ravens). Their roster is much better than niners/ravens so McCarron will have to play much worse than Gabbert and whoever suits up for Balt.
Edit: and I think the Jets/KC/Pitt need to go 3-0 for this to matter. Cinci is in.
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I guess I disagree. I get the arcane tie-breaker stuff; but if the Bengals lose and the Steelers win, Pittsburgh is closer to winning the division than they are now. It very likely will prove meaningless, but in the here and now, it's not irrelevant.
If they lose Sunday, they'll have to beat Baltimore at home (highly likely, even with McCarron) to clinch a bye if they beat Denver and Denver wins their other two games. It literally has zero impact on the division race. It appears they can clinch a playoff spot with a win, but that already may be accomplished if Dallas beats the Jets the night before or Baltimore beats KC earlier in the day. I suppose it's relevant from that perspective, but the only way they miss the playoffs is if they lose out and PIT/NYJ/KC all win out since they win tiebreakers with the Chiefs and Jets. Sure it could happen, but I would imagine the Bengals inactive list Sunday will reflect what they think of the game.
You may well be right that there's a situation I missed on the playoff machine -- but this isn't about agreeing or disagreeing. There's a right answer and a wrong answer.
If the Bengals win and the Steelers win, Pittsburgh is the same amount closer to winning the division than they would be if the Bengals lost. Again, it literally has zero impact on the division race. Who knows, the Bengals may choke the division away. It won't be because they lost to San Francisco.
My last statement on this
Have the Bengals clinched the division? No
Until they do, no result involving them or a game involving the Steelers is irrelevant. That's what started this discussion -- the use of the word irrelevant. If the Bengals lose three and the Steelers win out, than losing to SF was relevant to Cincinnati losing the division.
Have the Bengals clinched the division? No
Until they do, no result involving them or a game involving the Steelers is irrelevant. That's what started this discussion -- the use of the word irrelevant. If the Bengals lose three and the Steelers win out, than losing to SF was relevant to Cincinnati losing the division.
The Cincy-SF game absolutely matters for the division because you can't assume Pitt wins out. That's what's being left out in this analysis, I think. if Pitt wins out then the results of this game won't matter, but if Pitt goes 2-1, then Cincy will absolutely win the division with a win this week, and don't have to win either of the last two games.
I know it was said at one point, but it's been dropped in subsequent posts. I believe that's where the confusion lies. You must assume Pitt wins out to then declare that the Cincy-SF game has no impact on who wins the AFC North division.
Unless of course I'm wrong, in which case I retract my stern tone.
I know it was said at one point, but it's been dropped in subsequent posts. I believe that's where the confusion lies. You must assume Pitt wins out to then declare that the Cincy-SF game has no impact on who wins the AFC North division.
Unless of course I'm wrong, in which case I retract my stern tone.
If the Steelers win out and the Bengals go 1-2 with the win over San Francisco, Pittsburgh still wins the division. What don't you understand about this?
If Pittsburgh loses any game, the division is over. If Cincinnati beats Denver or Baltimore, the division is over. Cincinnati-San Francisco does not have any impact on the division race.
Yeah this is pretty straightforward. The game is relevant for the bye and for playoffs, but not for the division.
If Pitt goes 3-0 and Cinn goes 0-3 Pitt wins by better record.
If Pitt goes 3-0 and Cinn goes 1-2 but one of their losses is to SF, Bengals win tiebreaker in every scenario and win the division.
If Pitt goes 2-1, the best they can do is tie, and they lose every tiebreaker to the Bengals.
If Pitt goes 3-0 and Cinn goes 0-3 Pitt wins by better record.
If Pitt goes 3-0 and Cinn goes 1-2 but one of their losses is to SF, Bengals win tiebreaker in every scenario and win the division.
If Pitt goes 2-1, the best they can do is tie, and they lose every tiebreaker to the Bengals.
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No it's not dude. You keep missing the fact that an 11-5 Steelers team beats an 11-5 Cincy team THAT ONLY BEATS SF THIS WEEK.
If Bengals go 0-3 and Steelers go 3-0 the Steelers finish 11-5, Bengals 10-6 AND STEELERS WIN DIVISION
If Bengals go 1-2 BY BEATING SF and Steelers go 3-0 the Steelers finish 11-5, Bengals 11-5 AND STEELERS WIN DIVISION
You're not accepting as 100% true something that is 100% true.
If Pats and Denver go 2-0 in the next two weeks, the Pats still need to win the Miami game to get the #1 seed, no?
Yes they do. Denver has the H2H tiebreaker with the Pats so they can't finish in a tie with them and get the #1 seed.
Well, Pats going 3-0 GUARANTEES it.
No. They can be the #1 seed by losing to Miami IF Denver loses as well.
Playing with the playoff machine, it appears that if Denver/Cincy/Patriots end up in a 3-way tie, either the Pats or Denver get the #1 seed, and the other will get the #3, with Cincy locked in as the #2.
The Bengals need to get to 12 wins to make tiebreakers not come into play. If the Bengals beat SF (in a game people are calling irrelevant) and Baltimore, they get to 12 wins.
Now, you can argue that one of those wins weighs more than the other in tiebreak scenarios ... but, as far as avoiding ending up tied with the Steelers is concerned, beating SF has relevance.
So, it is not 100% true that the SF game is irrelevant ... if it helps them avoid the tiebreaker
edit and, yes, i know i said i was through with this, but some things are far too importance for valor
Now, you can argue that one of those wins weighs more than the other in tiebreak scenarios ... but, as far as avoiding ending up tied with the Steelers is concerned, beating SF has relevance.
So, it is not 100% true that the SF game is irrelevant ... if it helps them avoid the tiebreaker
edit and, yes, i know i said i was through with this, but some things are far too importance for valor
The object isn't to win the division outright - it's to win the division. When you can show me a single scenario where the division winner hinges on this game, I'll gladly come around to your opinion. Until then, as was said upthread, you're rejecting fact.
Unless they plan on hanging a "2015: Won the division without help of a tiebreaker" banner its completely irrelevant.
Its the exact same scenario as if the Broncos went into week 17 one game ahead of the Patriots and no one else could tie them. The Broncos week 17 game would be irrelevant for the purposes of homefield advantage.
Its the exact same scenario as if the Broncos went into week 17 one game ahead of the Patriots and no one else could tie them. The Broncos week 17 game would be irrelevant for the purposes of homefield advantage.
So who are we rooting for next week, Pittsburgh or Denver? I say the Pats more or less have position over Cincy locked up with a one game lead, the tiebreaker, and no Dalton, and my desire to avoid PIttsburgh altogether outweighs my fear of playing Denver on the road. Go Broncos.
If Denver loses @ Steelers, I believe Pats wins vs. Titans and @ Jets clinch the #1 seed and make the Miami game irrelevant.
Here's the only one I can construct:
Bengals lose to Denver and Baltimore (10-5 without the 49ers game)
Steelers tie Denver, beat Baltimore and Cleveland (10-5-1)
Bengals need to beat 49ers to win the division, otherwise Steelers win..
Assuming we hold on to a bye (which, barring disaster, we obviously should), I can easily see Denver not making it to the AFCCG, even if they are the #1 seed. They will have to play whoever's playing best out of a pool that will include PIT, NYJ, and KC. Each of those teams is fully capable of holding Denver's offense to fewer than 10 points.
Yeah I was referring to the 3 way tie scenario of Pitt NYJ and KC all getting to 11-5
Thank you - I stand corrected. Barring a tie in another game, it has no impact on the division race.
Nicely done except that Bengals need not to lose the 49ers game (they win division if they tie SF says the playoff machine).
Somewhat more generally, any situation where PIT gets to 10-5-1 (i.e. they win two of their last three and tie the other) makes the SF game relevant because it could determine whether the Bengals wind up 10-6 or 11-5.
Edit: Written from a forward-looking perspective, here are the possible outcomes from next week only and what they mean for the division:
PIT LOSS: CIN clinches
PIT TIE and CIN TIE/WIN: CIN clinches
PIT TIE and CIN LOSS: no clinch; CIN needs a win or PIT loss in remaining games
PIT WIN and CIN LOSS: no clinch; CIN needs a win or PIT loss in remaining games (or CIN tie + PIT tie)
PIT WIN and CIN TIE: no clinch; CIN needs a win/tie or PIT loss in remaining games
PIT WIN and CIN WIN: no clinch; CIN needs a win or PIT loss/tie in remaining games
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Geez, I wish I knew about this "play-off machine" before I did out all these scenarios on a sheet of scrap paper yesterday.
#1 broken down simply: 3-0 guarantees it with no help. 2-1 and a Denver loss and they get it. Any two way tie with Cincy and they get the upper hand. Any two way tie with Denver and they don't.
A first round bye: They can go 2-1 and still get a bye due to the tiebreaker win against Cincy.
If Denver, Cincy, and Pats all finish tied, Denver gets #1, NE gets #2, and Cincy gets #3.
A first round bye: They can go 2-1 and still get a bye due to the tiebreaker win against Cincy.
If Denver, Cincy, and Pats all finish tied, Denver gets #1, NE gets #2, and Cincy gets #3.
I was initially rooting for Denver, but have since come around and will root for Pitt. Winning in New York right now is no guarantee, and I absolutely want the bye and 1 seed for this team. Especially when you consider 1) how banged up the team is, with seemingly half of the squads critical players dealing with injuries serious enough to hold them out of games or get listed on the injury report (I know we hear every year that everyone is dealing with injuries) and 2) that their bye week was in week 4. That's 10 consecutive weeks of football.
If Denver loses, they can clinch HFA in week 16 with a win in New York and sit out a bunch of guys in week 16 to get them healthy/give them rest/prevent them from injury. I'd say there's almost 0% chance Gronk sees the field in that scenario, and depending on how they recover I'd be surprised if we saw much of McCourty, Hightower, Collins, and possibly Amendola, although he looks to be in better shape now. Gronk skipped week 17 last year, with Brady playing a half. In 2010 Brady played 2.5 quarters while Welker and Branch both sat out. It would be great to be able to rest anyone, and avoid potentially having to play guys who could use more time off (at this point Blount, Kline, Chandler, Easley, Hightower, among others)
If Denver loses, they can clinch HFA in week 16 with a win in New York and sit out a bunch of guys in week 16 to get them healthy/give them rest/prevent them from injury. I'd say there's almost 0% chance Gronk sees the field in that scenario, and depending on how they recover I'd be surprised if we saw much of McCourty, Hightower, Collins, and possibly Amendola, although he looks to be in better shape now. Gronk skipped week 17 last year, with Brady playing a half. In 2010 Brady played 2.5 quarters while Welker and Branch both sat out. It would be great to be able to rest anyone, and avoid potentially having to play guys who could use more time off (at this point Blount, Kline, Chandler, Easley, Hightower, among others)
Bye and home field throughout the playoffs. It should be any team's ultimate goal for the regular season, and it shouldn't change now based on Denver looking somewhat weaker than Pittsburgh.
Get a week off, and guarantee that two home wins lands you in the Super Bowl. A Steeler win this weekend makes that more likely, and also puts in play a semi-bye in week 17 against Miami for a very beat up team. Go Steelers.
Get a week off, and guarantee that two home wins lands you in the Super Bowl. A Steeler win this weekend makes that more likely, and also puts in play a semi-bye in week 17 against Miami for a very beat up team. Go Steelers.
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